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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
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NASA NTRS2005

Interannual Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Region

Rainfall variability on seasonal and interannual-to-interdecadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic is quantified using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The ITCZ measured by monthly rainfall between 15-37.5 deg W attains its peak as moving to the northernmost latitude (4-10 deg N) during July-September in which the most total rainfall is observed in the tropical Atlantic basin (17.5 deg S-22.5 deg N, 15 deg-37.5 deg W); the ITCZ becomes weakest during January-February with the least total rainfall as it moves to the south. In contrast, rainfall variability on interannual to interdecadal time scales shows a quite different seasonal preference. The most intense interannual variability occurs during March-May when the ITCZ tends to be near the equator and becomes weaker. Significant, negative correlations between the ITCZ strength and latitude anomalies are observed during boreal spring and early summer. The ITCZ strength and total rainfall amount in the tropical Atlantic basin are significantly modulated by the Pacific El Nino and the Atlantic equatorial mode (or Atlantic Nino) particularly during boreal spring and summer; whereas the impact of the Atlantic interhemispheric mode is considerably weaker. Regarding the anomalous latitudes of the ITCZ, the influence can come from both local, i.e., the Atlantic interhemispheric and equatorial modes, and remote forcings, i. e., El Nino; however, a direct impact of El Nino on the latitudes of the ITCZ can only be found during April-July, not in winter and early spring in which the warmest SST anomalies are usually observed in the equatorial Pacific.

Gu, Guojun↗
NASA NTRS2009

ALSSAT Development Status

The development of the Advanced Life Support (ALS) Sizing Analysis Tool (ALSSAT) using Microsoft(Registered TradeMark) Excel was initiated by the Crew and Thermal Systems Division (CTSD) of Johnson Space Center (JSC) in 1997 to support the ALS and Exploration Offices in Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) design and studies. It aids the user in performing detailed sizing of the ECLSS for different combinations of the Exploration Life support (ELS) regenerative system technologies. This analysis tool will assist the user in performing ECLSS preliminary design and trade studies as well as system optimization efficiently and economically. The latest ALSSAT related publication in ICES 2004 detailed ALSSAT s development status including the completion of all six ELS Subsystems (ELSS), namely, the Air Management Subsystem, the Biomass Subsystem, the Food Management Subsystem, the Solid Waste Management Subsystem, the Water Management Subsystem, and the Thermal Control Subsystem and two external interfaces, including the Extravehicular Activity and the Human Accommodations. Since 2004, many more regenerative technologies in the ELSS were implemented into ALSSAT. ALSSAT has also been used for the ELS Research and Technology Development Metric Calculation for FY02 thru FY06. It was also used to conduct the Lunar Outpost Metric calculation for FY08 and was integrated as part of a Habitat Model developed at Langley Research Center to support the Constellation program. This paper will give an update on the analysis tool s current development status as well as present the analytical results of one of the trade studies that was performed.

Yeh, H. Y. Jannivine↗
NASA NTRS2001

Activation of the E1 Ultra High Pressure Propulsion Test Facility at Stennis Space Center

After a decade of construction and a year of activation the El Ultra High Pressure Propulsion Test Facility at NASA's Stennis Space Center is fully operational. The El UHP Propulsion Test Facility is a multi-cell, multi-purpose component and engine test facility . The facility is capable of delivering cryogenic propellants at low, high, and ultra high pressures with flow rates ranging from a few pounds per second up to two thousand pounds per second. Facility activation is defined as a series of tasks required to transition between completion of construction and facility operational readiness. Activating the El UHP Propulsion Test Facility involved independent system checkouts, propellant system leak checks, fluid and gas sampling, gaseous system blow downs, pressurization and vent system checkouts, valve stability testing, valve tuning cryogenic cold flows, and functional readiness tests.

Messer, Bradley↗
NASA NTRS2010

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Nina in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5degN - 20degS latitude extending eastward from 150degW - 30 E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Nino, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as we] l as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino anomaly index four months previously. The El Nino index is defined as the SST anomaly averaged over the area 15S to 15N and 160W eastward to 30E. If one excludes the area 5degN - 20degS, 150degW - 30degE from the statistics, the negative area mean tropical OLR trends, as well as OLR trends over the rest of the globe, are substantially

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2011

Contributions to Climate Research Using the AIRS Science Team Version-5 Products

This paper compares recent spatial anomaly time series of OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) and OLRCLR (Clear Sky OLR) as determined using CERES and AIRS observations over the time period September 2002 through June 2010. We find excellent agreement in OLR anomaly time series of both data sets in almost every detail, down to the 1 x 1 spatial grid point level. This extremely close agreement of OLR anomaly time series derived from observations by two different instruments implies that both sets of results must be highly stable. This agreement also validates to some extent the anomaly time series of the AIRS derived products used in the computation of the AIRS OLR product. The paper then examines anomaly time series of AIRS derived products over the extended time period September 2002 through April 2011. We show that OLR anomalies during this period are closely in phase with those of an El Nino index, and that recent global and tropical mean decreases in OLR and OLR(sub CLR) are a result of a transition from an El Nino condition at the beginning of the data record to La Nina conditions toward the end of the data period. This relationship can be explained by temporal changes of the distribution of mid-tropospheric water vapor and cloud cover in two spatial regions that are in direct response to El Nino/La Nina activity which occurs outside these spatial regions

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2014

Surface Ozone Variability and Trends over the South African Highveld from 1990 to 2007

Surface ozone is a secondary air pollutant formed from reactions between nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) and volatile organic compounds in the presence of sunlight. In this work we examine effects of the climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and NOx variability on surface ozone from 1990 to 2007 over the South African Highveld, a heavily populated region in South Africa with numerous industrial facilities. Over summer and autumn (December-May) on the Highveld, El Niño, as signified by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the central Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with drier and warmer than normal conditions favoring ozone formation. Conversely, La Niña, or negative SST anomalies over the central Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with cloudier and above normal rainfall conditions, hindering ozone production. We use a generalized regression model to identify any linear dependence that the Highveld ozone, measured at five air quality monitoring stations, may have on ENSO and NOx. Our results indicate that four out of the five stations exhibit a statistically significant sensitivity to ENSO at some point over the December-May period where El Niño amplifies ozone formation and La Niña reduces ozone formation. Three out of the five stations reveal statistically significant sensitivity to NOx variability, primarily in winter and spring. Accounting for ENSO and NOx effects throughout the study period of 18 years, two stations exhibit statistically significant negative ozone trends in spring, one station displays a statistically significant positive trend in August, and two stations show no statistically significant change in surface ozone.

NOx↗
NASA NTRS2014

Preface: Electromagnetic and Light Scattering by Nonspherical Particles XIV

The 14th Electromagnetic and Light Scattering Conference (ELS-XIV) was held at the Universit de Lille 1, Villeneuve d'Ascq, France on 17-21 June 2013. The conference was attended by 200 scientists from 26 countries. The scientific program included one plenary lecture, 12 invited reviews, 100 contributed oral talks, and 86 poster presentations. The program, the abstracts, and the slides of the oral presentations are available at the conference web site http:www-loa.univ-lille1.frELS-XIV. To highlight one of the traditional ELS themes, the ELS-XIV featured a special session on Remote sensing of aerosols and clouds using polarimetric observations. This session was sponsored and co-organized by the French space agency CNES and attracted representatives from nearly all research teams word-wide involved in the development and active use of space-borne, in situ, and ground-based polarimetric observations.

electromagnetic scattering↗
NASA NTRS2015

Use of a Closed-Loop Tracking Algorithm for Orientation Bias Determination of an S-Band Ground Station

The Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Testbed project completed installation and checkout testing of a new S-Band ground station at the NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio in 2015. As with all ground stations, a key alignment process must be conducted to obtain offset angles in azimuth (AZ) and elevation (EL). In telescopes with AZ-EL gimbals, this is normally done with a two-star alignment process, where telescope-based pointing vectors are derived from catalogued locations with the AZ-EL bias angles derived from the pointing vector difference. For an antenna, the process is complicated without an optical asset. For the present study, the solution was to utilize the gimbal control algorithms closed-loop tracking capability to acquire the peak received power signal automatically from two distinct NASA Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) spacecraft, without a human making the pointing adjustments. Briefly, the TDRS satellite acts as a simulated optical source and the alignment process proceeds exactly the same way as a one-star alignment. The data reduction process, which will be discussed in the paper, results in two bias angles which are retained for future pointing determination. Finally, the paper compares the test results and provides lessons learned from the activity.

ground station↗
NASA NTRS2016

Highlights from the 11-Year Record of Tropospheric Ozone from OMI/MLS and Continuation of that Long Record Using OMPS Measurements

Since October 2004 the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) onboard the Aura satellite have provided over 11 years of continuous tropospheric ozone measurements. These OMI/MLS measurements have been used in many studies to evaluate dynamical and photochemical effects caused by ENSO, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and shorter timescales, as well as long-term trends and the effects of deep convection on tropospheric ozone. Given that the OMI and MLS instruments have now extended well beyond their expected lifetimes, our goal is to continue their long record of tropospheric ozone using recent Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS) measurements. The OMPS onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership NPP satellite was launched on October 28, 2011 and is comprised of three instruments: the nadir mapper, the nadir profiler, and the limb profiler. Our study combines total column ozone from the OMPS nadir mapper with stratospheric column ozone from the OMPS limb profiler to measure tropospheric ozone residual. The time period for the OMPS measurements is March 2012 present. For the OMPS limb profiler retrievals, the OMPS v2 algorithm from Goddard is tested against the University of Saskatchewan (USask) Algorithm. The retrieved ozone profiles from each of these algorithms are evaluated with ozone profiles from both ozonesondes and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Effects on derived OMPS tropospheric ozone caused by the 2015-2016 El Nino event are highlighted. This recent El Nino produced anomalies in tropospheric ozone throughout the tropical Pacific involving increases of approximately 10 DU over Indonesia and decreases approximately 5-10 DU in the eastern Pacific. These changes in ozone due to El Nino were predominantly dynamically-induced, caused by the eastward shift in sea-surface temperature and convection from the western to the eastern Pacific.

MJO↗
NASA NTRS2015

Electromagnetic and Light Scattering by Nonspherical Particles XV: Celebrating 150 Years of Maxwell's Electromagnetics

The 15th Electromagnetic and Light Scattering Conference (ELS-XV) was held in Leipzig, Germany from 21 to 26 of June 2015. This conference built on the great success of the previous meetings held in Amsterdam (1995), Helsinki(1997) [2], New York City(1998) [3], Vigo (1999),Halifax (2000), Gainesville (2002), Bremen (2003), Salobreña (2005), St. Petersburg (2006), Bodrum (2007), Hatfield (2008), Helsinki (2010), Taormina (2011), and Lille as well as the workshops held in Bremen (1996,1998) and Moscow (1997). As usual, the main objective of this conference was to bring together scientists, engineers, and PhD students studying various aspects of electromagnetic scattering and to provide a relaxed atmosphere for in-depth discussion of theory, measurements, and applications. Furthermore, ELS-XV supported the United Nations "Year of Light" and celebrated the150th anniversary of Maxwell's electromagnetics. Maxwell's paper on "A Dynamical Theory of the Electromagnetic Field" was published in1865 and has widely been acknowledged as one of the supreme achievements in the history of science. The conference was attended by136 scientists from 22 countries. The scientific program included two plenary lectures, 16 invited reviews, 88 contributed oral talks, and 70 poster presentations. The program and the abstracts of conference presentations are available at the conference website http://www.els-xv-2015.net/home.html. Following the well-established ELS practice and with Elsevier's encouragement, we solicited full-size papers for a topical issue of the Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer (JQSRT). The result of this collective effort is now in the reader's hands. As always, every invited review and regular paper included in this topical issue has undergone the same rigorous peer review process as any other manuscript published in the JQSRT.

light scattering↗
NASA NTRS2015

Use of a Closed-Loop Tracking Algorithm for Orientation Bias Determination of an S-Band Ground Station

The Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Testbed project completed installation and checkout testing of a new S-Band ground station at the NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio in 2015. As with all ground stations, a key alignment process must be conducted to obtain offset angles in azimuth (AZ) and elevation (EL). In telescopes with AZ-EL gimbals, this is normally done with a two-star alignment process, where telescope-based pointing vectors are derived from catalogued locations with the AZ-EL bias angles derived from the pointing vector difference. For an antenna, the process is complicated without an optical asset. For the present study, the solution was to utilize the gimbal control algorithms closed-loop tracking capability to acquire the peak received power signal automatically from two distinct NASA Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) spacecraft, without a human making the pointing adjustments. Briefly, the TDRS satellite acts as a simulated optical source and the alignment process proceeds exactly the same way as a one-star alignment. The data reduction process, which will be discussed in the paper, results in two bias angles which are retained for future pointing determination. Finally, the paper compares the test results and provides lessons learned from the activity.

reflector antenna↗
NASA NTRS2017

Forecasting Ocean Chlorophyll in the Equatorial Pacific

Using a global ocean biogeochemical model combined with a forecast of physical oceanic and atmospheric variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we assess the skill of a chlorophyll concentrations forecast in the Equatorial Pacific for the period 2012-2015 with a focus on the forecast of the onset of the 2015 El Niño event. Using a series of retrospective 9-month hindcasts, we assess the uncertainties of the forecasted chlorophyll by comparing the monthly total chlorophyll concentration from the forecast with the corresponding monthly ocean chlorophyll data from the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS) satellite. The forecast was able to reproduce the phasing of the variability in chlorophyll concentration in the Equatorial Pacific, including the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Niño. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) was significant (p less than 0.05) for forecast at 1-month (R=0.33), 8-month (R=0.42) and 9-month (R=0.41) lead times. The root mean square error (RMSE) increased from 0.0399 microgram ch1 L(exp -1) for the 1-month lead forecast to a maximum of 0.0472 microgram ch1 L(exp -1) for the 9-month lead forecast indicating that the forecast of the amplitude of chlorophyll concentration variability was getting worse. Forecasts with a 3-month lead time were on average the closest to the S-NPP VIIRS data (23% or 0.033 microgram ch1 L(exp -1)) while the forecast with a 9-month lead time were the furthest (31% or 0.042 microgram ch1 L(exp -1)). These results indicate the potential for forecasting chlorophyll concentration in this region but also highlights various deficiencies and suggestions for improvements to the current biogeochemical forecasting system. This system provides an initial basis for future applications including the effects of El Niño events on fisheries and other ocean resources given improvements identified in the analysis of these results.

Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC)↗
NASA NTRS2018

Assessing the Impact of Large Volcanic Eruptions of the Last Millennium (850-1850 CE) on Australian Rainfall Regimes

Explosive volcanism is an important natural climate forcing, impacting global surface temperatures and regional precipitation. Although previous studies have investigated aspects of the impact of tropical volcanism on various ocean–atmosphere systems and regional climate regimes, volcanic eruptions remain a poorly understood climate forcing and climatic responses are not well constrained. In this study, volcanic eruptions are explored in particular reference to Australian precipitation, and both the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using nine realizations of the last millennium (LM) (850–1850CE) with different time-evolving forcing combinations, from the NASA GISS ModelE2-R, the impact of the six largest tropical volcanic eruptions of this period are investigated. Overall, we find that volcanic aerosol forcing increased the likelihood of El Niño and positive IOD conditions for up to four years following an eruption, and resulted in positive precipitation anomalies over north-west (NW) and south-east (SE) Australia. Larger atmospheric sulfate loading during larger volcanic eruptions coincided with more persistent positive IOD and El Niño conditions, enhanced positive precipitation anomalies over NW Australia, and dampened precipitation anomalies over SE Australia.

Blake, Stephanie A. P.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching global climatic impacts and so extending useful ENSO forecasts would be of great benefit for society. However, one key variable that has yet to be fully exploited within coupled forecast systems is accurate estimation of near-surface ocean density. Satellite Sea Surface Salinity (SSS), combined with temperature, help to identify ocean density changes and associated mixing near the ocean surface. We assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for improving near-surface dynamics within ocean analyses and how these impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S_v2.1) coupled forecast system (Molod et al. 2018 - i.e. NASA's contribution to the NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble) project). For all initialization experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF ( Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) scheme similar to Penny et al., 2013. A separate reanalysis additionally assimilates Aquarius V5 (September 2011 to June 2015) and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) V4 (March 2015 to present) along-track data.We highlight the impact of satellite SSS on ocean reanalyses by comparing validation statistics of experiments that assimilate SSS versus our current prediction system that withholds SSS. We find that near-surface validation versus observed statistics for salinity are slightly degraded when assimilating SSS. This is an expected result due to known biases between SSS (measured by the satellite at approximately 1 centimeter) and in situ measurements (typically measured by Argo floats at 3 meters). On the other hand, a very encouraging result is that both temperature, absolute dynamic topography, and mixed layer statistics are improved with SSS assimilation. Previous work has shown that correcting near-surface density structure via gridded SSS assimilation can improve coupled forecasts. Here we present results of coupled forecasts that are initialized from the GMAO S2S reanalyses that assimilates/withholds along-track (L2) SSS. In particular, we contrast forecasts of the overestimated 2014 El Nino, the big 2015 El Nino, and the minor 2016 La Nina. For each of these ENSO scenarios, assimilation of satellite SSS improves the forecast validation. Improved SSS and density upgrades the mixed layer depth leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction.

Hackert, E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Salience of Nonlinearities in the Boreal Winter Response to ENSO: Arctic Stratosphere and Europe

The salience of nonlinearities in the Arctic stratospheric response to El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is evaluated in a 41 member ensemble of the period 1980 to 2009 in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. Central Pacific El Niño (CP EN) events preferentially increase zonal wavenumber 2, while Eastern Pacific El Niño (EP EN) events preferentially increase zonal wavenumber 1, though these nonlinearities become statistically robust only after more than 45 events are considered. This leads to a difference in the morphology of SSW events preferentially forced by each ENSO flavor. While the zonal-mean Arctic stratospheric response is little different between EP and CP EN once one accounts for the relative weakness of CP events, the tropospheric subpolar negative North Atlantic Oscillation response is stronger for CP events. Other nonlinearities are even less salient: there is no indication of any nonlinearities in the wave driving between moderate EP EN and extreme EP EN, nor between EN and La Niña (LN). However in approximately 15% of the integrations within our ensemble, there is no difference in SSW frequency between EN and LN, suggesting that a similar SSW frequency for both EN and LN, as has occurred over the past 60 years, can occur by chance. The intra-ensemble variability in LN SSW frequency can be related back to intra-ensemble variability in the tropospheric response to LN.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessment of Precipitation Anomalies in California Using TRMM and MERRA Data

After more than a decade of moderate seasonal deviations from the expected climate, it is easy to forget that California is actually prone to instabilities in precipitation patterns that occur on various scales. Using modern satellite and reanalysis data we reassess certain aspects of the precipitation climate in California from the past three decades. California has a well-pronounced rain season that peaks in December-February. However, the 95% confidence interval around the climatological precipitation during these months imply that deviations on the order of 60% of the expected amounts are very likely during the most important period of the rain season. While these positive and negative anomalies alternate almost every year and tend to cancel each other, severe multi-year declines of precipitation in California seem to appear on decadal scales. The 1986-1994 decline of precipitation was similar to the current one that started in 2011, and is apparent in the reanalysis data. In terms of accumulated deficits of precipitation, that episode was no less severe than the current one. While El Niño (the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) is frequently cited as the natural forcing expected to bring a relief, our assessment is that ENSO has been driving at best only 6% of precipitation variability in California in the past three decades. It means El Niño needs to be stronger and longer, in order to have a higher likelihood of a positive impact, and the current one does not match these criteria. Using fractional risk analysis of precipitation populations during normal and dry periods, we show that the likelihood of losing the most intensive precipitation events drastically increases during the multi-year drying events. Since storms delivering up to 50% of precipitation in California are driven by atmospheric rivers making landfall, thus the importance of their suppression and blockage by persistent ridges of atmospheric pressure in the northeast Pacific.

Savtchenko, Andrey K.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Dynamical Forecasts of Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes with the NASA S2S Retrospective Forecast System

Recent advances in the ability to predict climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales allow us to explore the possibility of forecasting carbon flux anomalies. Although carbon flux forecasting is a relatively new concept, it is potentially beneficial as it can help us better understand global and regional land-atmosphere carbon feedbacks associated with climate variations and can provide guidance for future field mission design. Here we evaluate the skill of forecasted terrestrial carbon anomalies generated from meteorological anomalies produced with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) S2S forecast system. We focus here on three representative time periods (the most recent 2015-2016 El Nino, 2011 La Nina, and 2014 as a neutral year), with each corresponding 9-month forecast comprising four ensemble members initialized in the preceding December. The meteorological variables produced by the GMAO forecast system were bias-corrected using a climatology derived from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) before being used to drive a suite of offline simulations with the NASA Catchment-CN terrestrial biosphere model, a model that computes water-energy-carbon dynamics. Forecasts are evaluated by comparing against satellite-driven estimates of gross primary production (GPP) and inverse model estimates of net carbon flux that incorporate satellite carbon dioxide measurements. We find that the restrospectively predicted carbon fluxes in the tropics reasonably reproduce the signs and magnitudes of the observed anomalies between the 2015-2016 El Nino and the 2011 La Nina for both net flux and GPP. For instance, for the El Nino period, the magnitude of the forecasted negative GPP anomaly in the South American tropics (which undergoes anomalously warm and dry conditions) agrees with the observed GPP anomaly at leads of up to three or four months. Overall, this study demonstrates potential skill in the forecast of biospheric carbon fluxes a few months in advance, a capability that could contribute to attribution studies focusing on carbon flux variations and support innovative observation strategies in the future.

Lee, Eunjee↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Benchmark Example for Delamination Propagation Predictions Based on the Calibrated End-Loaded Split Specimen

A benchmark example based on the Calibrated End-Loaded Split (C-ELS) specimen is developed and used to assess the performance of recently developed delamination propagation capabilities in the Abaqus/Standard finite element code. The C-ELS specimen has the advantage of a longer region of stable delamination propagation compared to the existing mode II benchmark case. The new benchmark example may therefore provide a better assessment tool by enabling more stable crack growth in regions further away from the boundary conditions or load application. First, a benchmark result is created manually using two-dimensional finite element models of the C-ELS specimen with different delamination lengths. Second, the performance of the delamination propagation capabilities in the Abaqus/Standard finite element code are assessed by comparing the results to the benchmark case. Two examples with different starter delamination lengths are studied. A shorter starter length is chosen to create a scenario with unstable delamination propagation. A longer delamination causes stable delamination propagation. Detailed results from three-dimensional analyses with aligned and mis-aligned meshes and two levels of mesh refinement are provided for several permutations of numerical input parameters. In general, good agreement can be achieved between the results obtained from the quasi-static propagation analysis and the benchmark analysis. However, particular non-default settings are found to be most reliable, accurate, and numerically efficient. Numerical artifacts including anomalous unreleased nodes in the crack wake and zig-zag crack fronts occur, and further development of the Abaqus/Standard VCCT propagation may be required. Use of the benchmark case to assess the continuous improvements in one finite element code illustrates the value of establishing benchmark solutions.

delamination↗