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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2022

Snowmass Computational Frontier: Topical Group Report on Quantum Computing

Quantum computing will play a pivotal role in the High Energy Physics (HEP) science program over the early parts of the 21$^{st}$ Century, both as a major expansion of our capabilities across the Computational Frontier, and in synthesis with quantum sensing and quantum networks. This report outlines how Quantum Information Science (QIS) and HEP are deeply intertwined endeavors that benefit enormously from a strong engagement together. Quantum computers do not represent a detour for HEP, rather they are set to become an integral part of our discovery toolkit. Problems ranging from simulating quantum field theories, to fully leveraging the most sensitive sensor suites for new particle searches, and even data analysis will run into limiting bottlenecks if constrained to our current computing paradigms. Easy access to quantum computers is needed to build a deeper understanding of these opportunities. In turn, HEP brings crucial expertise to the national quantum ecosystem in quantum domain knowledge, superconducting technology, cryogenic and fast microelectronics, and massive-scale project management. The role of quantum technologies across the entire economy is expected to grow rapidly over the next decade, so it is important to establish the role of HEP in the efforts surrounding QIS. Fully delivering on the promise of quantum technologies in the HEP science program requires robust support. It is important to both invest in the co-design opportunities afforded by the broader quantum computing ecosystem and leverage HEP strengths with the goal of designing quantum computers tailored to HEP science.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A U.S. scientific community review of carbon cycle science gaps and opportunities to better support earth system science and carbon management

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to grow, while natural carbon reservoirs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures, climate extremes, and disturbance. These changes are impacting humans, ecosystems, and natural resources worldwide. Tracking and mitigating GHG emissions require a pivot to operational monitoring of regional carbon flux and stock changes. The current GHG observing system is addressing needs at two distinct scales: 1) Local scale (< 1 km), related to anthropogenic point source emissions, and 2) global scales (> 1000 km), related to land and ocean carbon sinks. More focus on intermediate (10–1000 km) scales is needed to more effectively monitor progress in reducing carbon emissions, enhancing removals, and maintaining sinks. Representatives from carbon cycle biomass and flux communities across United States government agencies and academic institutions met in September 2024 to discuss the rationale and scientific context for more effectively implementing an operational system for GHG monitoring in support of urban and national carbon management needs. To guide development of this system, we propose a multi-tiered global spaceborne observing framework for carbon flux and stock, prioritizing: 1) frequent GHG partial columns for carbon emissions and removals; 2) continuous time series and data fusion of biomass from Lidar and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for carbon stocks, and 3) expanded coverage of tropical, high latitude, and oceanic regions to monitor carbon cycle tipping points and feedbacks. This system should be complemented by expanded surface and airborne networks for oceanic and terrestrial/aquatic ecosystems for calibration, ground truthing, and study of under-sampled regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-Resolution Spatio-Temporal Estimation of Net Ecosystem Exchange in Ice-Wedge Polygon Tundra Using In Situ Sensors and Remote Sensing Data

Land-atmosphere carbon exchange is known to be extremely heterogeneous in arctic ice-wedge polygonal tundra regions. In this study, a Kalman filter-based method was developed to estimate the spatio-temporal dynamics of daytime average net ecosystem exchange (NEEday) at 0.5-m resolution over a 550 m by 700 m study site. We integrated multi-scale, multi-type datasets, including normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVIs) obtained from a novel automated mobile sensor system (or tram system) and a greenness index map obtained from airborne imagery. We took advantage of the significant correlations between NDVI and NEEday identified based on flux chamber measurements. The weighted average of the estimated NEEday within the flux-tower footprint agreed with the flux tower data in term of its seasonal dynamics. We then evaluated the spatial variability of the growing season average NEEday, as a function of polygon geomorphic classes; i.e., the combination of polygon types—which are known to present different degradation stages associated with permafrost thaw—and microtopographic features (i.e., troughs, centers and rims). Our study suggests the importance of considering microtopographic features and their spatial coverage in computing spatially aggregated carbon exchange.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Valuation of pollination services from habitat management: a case study of utility scale solar energy facilities in the United States

Creating and maintaining pollinator habitats following the ecological infrastructure concept in degraded or unutilized land, such as solar energy facilities, is a practical way to synergistically advance the food, energy, and ecology nexus. Given the large land-use requirements for solar farming—the fastest growing renewable energy technology–considerable attention has been focused on strategies to maximize multiple ecosystem services. In this study, we coupled the principles of agronomy and ecology with economics and integrated national-scale data on crops, pollinators, and solar facilities to identify locations for creating pollinator habitats and estimating the economic value of pollination from the habitats. We examined opportunities for pollination services from pollinator-friendly utility-scale solar facilities adjacent to 42 million hectares of pollination-dependent crops in the conterminous United States at high resolution of 1 ha. We used the net income method to estimate the potential economic value of creating habitat in the land adjacent to solar facilities in the eight states with the greatest number of solar installations. Creating pollinator habitats at the 217 utility-scale solar facilities in these states could support adjacent 80,000 hectares of high pollinator dependent crops, which could potentially generate a pollination value of $\$$120 to $\$$264 million USD. The location-specific information and high-resolution maps generated for the United States demonstrate integration of grey and green infrastructure to support the food, energy, and environment nexus.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic

Rapid Arctic environmental change affects the entire Earth system as thawing permafrost ecosystems release greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Understanding how much permafrost carbon will be released, over what time frame, and what the relative emissions of carbon dioxide and methane will be is key for understanding the impact on global climate. In addition, the response of vegetation in a warming climate has the potential to offset at least some of the accelerating feedback to the climate from permafrost carbon. Temperature, organic carbon, and ground ice are key regulators for determining the impact of permafrost ecosystems on the global carbon cycle. Together, these encompass services of permafrost relevant to global society as well as to the people living in the region and help to determine the landscape-level response of this region to a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Urbanization drives convergence in soil profile texture and carbon content

Urban development has driven extensive modification of the global landscape. This shift in land use and land cover alters ecological functioning, and thereby affects sustainable management agendas. Urbanization fundamentally reshapes the soils that underlay landscapes, and throughout the soil profile, extends impacts of urbanization far below the landscape surface. The impacts of urbanization on deeper soils that are beyond the reach of regular land management are largely unknown, and validation of general theories of convergent ecosystem properties are thwarted by a dearth of both level of measurement effort and the substantial heterogeneity in soils and urban landscapes. Here, we examined two soil properties with strong links to ecological functioning—carbon and mineral-fraction particle size—measured in urban soils, and compared them to their pre-urbanization conditions across a continental gradient encompassing global soil diversity. We hypothesized that urbanization drove convergence of soils properties from heterogeneous pre-urban conditions towards homogeneous urban conditions. Based on our observations, we confirm the hypothesis. Both soil carbon and particle size converged toward an intermediate value in the full data distribution, from pre-urban to urban conditions. These outcomes in urban soils were observed to uniformly be fine textured soils with overall lower carbon content. Although these properties are desirable for supporting urban infrastructure (e.g. buildings, pipes), they constrain the potential to render ecosystem services. Since soil profile texture and carbon content were convergent and observed across 11 cities, we suggest that these property profiles can be used as a universal urban soil profile to: 1) provide a clear prediction for how urbanization will shift soil properties from pre-urban conditions, 2) facilitate the adoption of commonly-accepted soil profiles for process models, and 3) offer a reference point to test against urban management strategies and how they impact soil resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Arctic

The Arctic environment in 2024 continued on a trajectory that has put it in a state far different from that of the twentieth century. Ongoing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to quickly warm the Arctic, resulting in rapid changes in the cryosphere that are driving cascading impacts to climate, ecological, and societal systems. Many weather- and climate-related impacts in the Arctic are the result of compounding change, such as increased riverbank erosion, which is proximately due to increased river discharge from higher seasonal precipitation, yet is also exacerbated by thawing permafrost. However, even individual storms occur within very different ocean and ice conditions than were typically present in the late twentieth century. As a result, the impacts, including high winds, excessive precipitation, and coastal inundation, may be quite different nowadays, as exemplified by the October 2024 storm in northwest Alaska that produced severe coastal flooding in several communities. To share some of these impacts with a wider audience, select extreme weather impacts around the greater Arctic have been highlighted through the inclusion of sidebars in recent State of the Climate Arctic chapters (e.g., Benestad et al. 2023; Thoman et al. 2024).

Thoman, Richard L. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Unifying Framework to Enable Artificial Intelligence in High-Performance Computing Workflows

Current trends point to a future where large-scale scientific applications are tightly coupled high-performance computing/artificial intelligence (HPC/AI) hybrids. Hence, we urgently need to invest in creating a seamless, scalable framework where HPC and AI/machine learning can efficiently work together and adapt to novel hardware and vendor libraries without starting from scratch every few years. Finally, the current ecosystem and sparsely connected community are not sufficient to tackle these challenges, and we require a breakthrough catalyst for science similar to what PyTorch enabled for AI.

high-performance computing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Biological nitrogen fixation across major biomes in Latin America: Patterns and global change effects

We report biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) supports terrestrial primary productivity and plays key roles in mediating human-induced changes in global nitrogen (N) and carbon cycling. However, there are still critical uncertainties in our understanding of the amount of BNF occurring across terrestrial ecosystems, and of how terrestrial BNF will respond to global change. We synthesized BNF data from Latin America, a region reported to sustain some of the highest BNF rates on Earth, but that is underrepresented in previous data syntheses. We used meta-analysis and modeling approaches to estimate BNF rates across Latin America's major biomes and to evaluate the potential effects of increased N deposition and land-use change on these rates. Unmanaged tropical and subtropical moist forests sustained observed and predicted total BNF rates of 10 ± 1 and 14 ± 1 kg N ha -1 y -1 , respectively, supporting the hypothesis that these forests sustain lower BNF rates than previously thought. Free-living BNF accounted for two-thirds of the total BNF in these forests. Despite an average 30% reduction of free-living BNF in response to experimental N-addition, our results suggest free-living BNF rate responses to current and projected N deposition across tropical and subtropical moist forests are small. In contrast, the conversion of unmanaged ecosystems to crop and pasture lands increased BNF rates across all terrestrial biomes, mostly in savannas, grasslands, and dry forests, increasing BNF rates 2-fold. The information obtained here provides a more comprehensive understanding of BNF patterns for Latin America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane soil efflux (soil respiration) in a Pinus palustris restoration site in Georgetown, SC

This dataset contains processed data from a combination of survey flux chambers and long-term automated flux chambers. Biweekly soil flux measurements were conducted from June 2023 through December 2025 at a longleaf pine restoration site in Georgetown, SC. Processed, QAQC’d data can be found in the file: 1_DATA_ESS_DOE_HR_RS_HB3_QAQC_Survey_Data_20260223.csv. Raw and working data files (.json, & .81x format) from LI-COR equipment are included for reference and can be accessed using SoilFluxPro software. CSV metadata files describe the raw data and modifications made using SoilFluxPro v5 and Matlab R2024b, as well as formatting and units for processed CSVs. Matlab code is included for reading in the processed CSVs. This research was performed as part of the project: “Improving models of stand and watershed carbon and water fluxes with more accurate representations of soil-plant-water dynamics in southern pine ecosystems”, which examines in part the effects hydraulic redistribution on soil efflux of carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane, as well as soil moisture and temperature in a southern pine ecosystem with sandy soils and high water table.

CARBON DIOXIDE FLUX↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the impact of climate change on erosion - 20397

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha (3,338-ac) site located approximately 48 km (30 mi) south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (metric tons, or 705 short tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Erosion can play an important role in the fate and transport of waste at sites where disposal of long-lived waste is anticipated. The statistical characterization of key processes related to erosion is essential to the understanding of site stability through time. One of the key processes governing erosion is extreme precipitation and it is critical that trends in the distribution of extreme precipitation events through time be represented. The evidence of climate change is increasingly well documented and projected impacts on extreme precipitation events should be incorporated in performance assessment studies when relevant. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment is contradictory to good modeling practice. Specifically, excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. In this work, this information was used to assess the impacts of potential changes in climate on erosion processes. The goal was to understand how projections of future climate relate to the performance of the WNYNSC through time. In the first stage of this work multi-temporal historical aerial images were analyzed in conjunction with orthophotography and Lidar data to develop probability distributions for variables representing important erosion processes. The information from these analyses was then used in conjunction with simulated data from the West Valley Erosion Working Group (EWG). Analysis of EWG simulations provides estimates for the change in erosion rates through time that is driven by changes in climate. The time-varying rates of erosion change were applied to the historical aerial imagery data in order to inform time-varying rates of erosion that are driven by changes in climate. Ultimately, this process resulted in the identification of locations for features like gully heads using both the Lidar dataset and projection of the estimated location from the historical aerial photo under consideration back to the Lidar dataset. The distance between the estimate of the location from the historical image and that of the Lidar dataset was the estimated distance the feature has moved. This distance was then divided by the number of years between the Lidar dataset and the year of the historical aerial image of interest to get a rate of movement through time. This was done for several dozen points on each historical aerial image. The analyses from the EWG were used to characterize the relative impact of climate change on the erosion rates. This relative impact was quantified by comparing the LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using historical climate data with LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using projections of future climate. The relative increase in the erosion rates was then applied to the historical estimates of erosion derived from the analysis of the historical aerial imagery. This approach was used since the LEM-based estimated of the historical erosion rates from the past century have a bias towards underestimating erosion. This underestimation is hypothesized to be a consequence of an inability of the LEMs to account for the impacts of land-use change (i.e. deforestation) which had been shown to significantly increase erosion in similar Northern hardwood forest ecosystems. In summary, gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate were characterized using statistical probability distributions from the historical aerial image analysis. Simulated data from the EWG was used to estimate the climatically-driven changes in erosion rates through time. The changes through time from the EWG were applied to the gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate characterized using the historical aerial image analysis. This information can be used to inform PPA models to project future risks from a given site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Study 2022: Water Column, Sediment, and Total Ecosystem Respiration Rates across the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA (v2)

This dataset supports a broader study examining the drivers of spatial variability in sediment respiration rates in the Yakima River Basin and is associated with the manuscript “Sediment-associated processes account for most of the spatial variation in ecosystem respiration in the Yakima River basin” submitted to Nature Communications Earth & Environment (Garayburu-Caruso et al., in review). The dataset provides ecosystem metabolism estimates generated from streamMetabolizer (Appling et al.; 2018) using data collected during the same five-week period at 48 sites within multiple rivers throughout the Yakima River Basin in Washington, USA. Additionally, it includes the scripts used for the analysis and producing the figures in the manuscript. The contents include streamMetabolizer inputs and outputs and additional relevant data needed to generate the main manuscript results. The data included are: total ecosystem respiration, water respiration, calculated sediment-associated respiration, gross primary production outputs from the river corridor model for the Yakima River Basin, median grain size (d50), depth, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, pressure, and annual oxygen consumption. The associated GitHub repository can be found at https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/SSS_metabolism. Samples collected during this study were labeled as “Second Spatial Study” or “SSS.” Raw time series sensor data, total suspended solids, and depth data from SSS were published at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1969566. A subset of data from the SSS samples were published in the contiguous United States (CONUS)-Scale Model-Sample (CM) study data package available at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1923689 that presents data from across the CONUS. They include dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC), total nitrogen (TN), grain size, aerobic sediment respiration, dissolved oxygen (DO), and temperature. Parent IDs and Site IDs are consistent between the SSS and CM data packages, and they can be mapped directly so data across packages can be used together. Field metadata for the samples in this da This dataset is comprised of one main data folder with four subfolders. The main data folder contains of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) total/water column/sediment respiration; (4) gross primary production (GPP); (5) median grain size (d50); and (6) annual oxygen consumption. The “Figures” subfolder contains the figures used in the paper and all intermediate files (including geospatial files). The “Published_Data” contains a readme directing the user to download the public data to reproduce analyses and figures. The “Scripts” folder contains all scripts used in the analyses that were not part of running StreamMetabolizer. Lastly, the “Stream_Metabolizer” folder contains all files associated with running StreamMetabolizer including (1) model input files, (2) model output files, (3) processing scripts, (4) histogram plots of the outputs, and (5) an R project. All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .Rmd, .Rproj, .html, .png, .txt, .qgz, .cpg, .dbf, .prj, .shp, .shp.ea.iso.xml, .shp.iso.xml, .shx, .sbn. ta package can be found at either link. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Remote sensing and statistical analysis of the effects of hurricane María on the forests of Puerto Rico

Widely recognized as one of the worst natural disaster in Puerto Rico's history, hurricane María made landfall on September 20, 2017 in southeast Puerto Rico as a high-end category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale causing widespread destruction, fatalities and forest disturbance. This study focused on hurricane María's effect on Puerto Rico's forests as well as the effect of landform and forest characteristics on observed disturbance patterns. In this work, we used Google Earth Engine (GEE) to assess the severity of forest disturbance using a disturbance metric based on Landsat 8 satellite data composites with pre and post-hurricane María. Forest structure, tree phenology characteristics, and landforms were obtained from satellite data products, including digital elevation model and global forest canopy height. Our analyses showed that forest structure, and characteristics such as forest age and forest type affected patterns of forest disturbance. Among forest types, highest disturbance values were found in sierra palm, transitional, and tall cloud forests; seasonal evergreen forests with coconut palm; and mangrove forests. For landforms, greatest disturbance metrics was found at high elevations, steeper slopes, and windward surfaces. As expected, high levels of disturbance were also found close to the hurricane track, with disturbance less severe as hurricane María moved inland. Results demonstrated that forest and landform characteristics accounted for 34% of the variation in spatial forest spectral disturbance patterns. This study demonstrated an informative regional approach, combining remote sensing with statistical analyses to investigate factors that result in variability in hurricane effects on forest ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mercury methylation potential in a sand dune on Lake Michigan's eastern shoreline

Lake Michigan hosts the largest freshwater sand dune system in the world and is economically important for the fishery industry and tourism. Due to industrial pollution and atmospheric mercury (Hg) deposition, toxic levels of methylmercury (MeHg) have been found in the Lake biota, but little information is known regarding MeHg sources and Hg methylation potential in the shoreline sand dunes. In this study, we conducted anaerobic incubation experiments with beach sands collected from Ludington, Michigan, and examined the effects of organic carbon substrate addition, inorganic nitrogen, and mineral magnetite on Hg methylation. Despite nutrient poor and low-organic carbon conditions, appreciable Hg methylation activity coupled with carbon degradation was observed in the sands. Addition of acetate as a carbon source substantially increased MeHg production from 2 to 380 ng/kg sediment while acetate was rapidly degraded in the first 19 days of incubation. Ammonium addition showed little influence on carbon degradation or Hg methylation, whereas iron oxide addition (~1% dry weight) significantly inhibited both carbon degradation and MeHg production (by up to 90%), highlighting strongly coupled interactions between microbes, carbon substrates, and minerals. This research demonstrates the potential of microbial Hg methylation in the sand dunes, which may play a role in MeHg input and bioaccumulation in the Lake Michigan ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Empirical Dynamic Modeling Reveals Complexity of Methane Fluxes in a Temperate Salt Marsh

Abstract Methane dynamics within salt marshes are complex because vegetation types, temperature, oscillating water levels, and changes in salinity and redox conditions influence CH 4 production, consumption, oxidation, and emissions. These non‐linear and complex interactions among variables affect the traditionally expected functional relationships and present challenges for interpreting and developing process‐based models. We employed empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and convergent cross mapping (CCM) as a novel approach for characterizing seasonal/multiday and diurnal CH 4 dynamics by inferring causal variables, lags, and interconnections among multiple biophysical variables within a temperate salt marsh using 5 years of eddy covariance data. EDM/CCM is a nonparametric approach capable of quantifying the coupling between variables while determining time scales where variable interactions are the most relevant. We found that gross primary productivity, tidal creek dissolved oxygen, and temperature were important for seasonal/multiday dynamics (rho = 0.73–0.80), while water level was most important for diurnal dynamics during both the growing and dormancy phenoperiods (rho = 0.72 and 0.56, respectively). Lags for the top‐ranked variables (i.e., gross primary productivity, dissolved oxygen, temperature, water level) occurred between 1 and 5 weeks at the seasonal scale and 1–24 hr at the diurnal scale. The EDM had high prediction capabilities for intra‐/inter‐seasonal patterns and annual CH 4 sums but had limitations in representing large, infrequent fluxes. Results highlight the importance of non‐linearity, drivers, lag times, and interconnections among multiple biophysical variables that regulate CH 4 fluxes in tidal wetlands. This research introduces a novel approach to examining CH 4 fluxes, which will aid in evaluating current paradigms in wetlands and other ecosystems.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Diffusion‐Based Uncertainty Quantification Method to Advance E3SM Land Model Calibration

Abstract Calibrating land surface models and accurately quantifying their uncertainty are crucial for improving the reliability of simulations of complex environmental processes. This, in turn, advances our predictive understanding of ecosystems and supports climate‐resilient decision‐making. Traditional calibration methods, however, face challenges of high computational costs and difficulties in accurately quantifying parameter uncertainties. To address these issues, we develop a diffusion‐based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method. Unlike conventional generative diffusion methods, which are computationally expensive and memory‐intensive, DBUQ innovates by formulating a parameterized generative model and approximates this model through supervised learning, which enables quick generation of parameter posterior samples to quantify its uncertainty. DBUQ is effective, efficient, and general‐purpose, making it suitable for site‐specific ecosystem model calibration and broadly applicable for parameter uncertainty quantification across various earth system models. In this study, we applied DBUQ to calibrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model land model at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Results indicated that DBUQ produced accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those from Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30 times less computing time. This significant improvement in efficiency suggests that DBUQ can enable rapid, site‐level model calibration at a global scale, enhancing our predictive understanding of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ecological and genomic responses of soil microbiomes to high-severity wildfire: linking community assembly to functional potential

Increasing wildfire severity, which is common throughout the western United States, can have deleterious effects on plant regeneration and large impacts on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling rates. Soil microbes are pivotal in facilitating these elemental cycles, so understanding the impact of increasing fire severity on soil microbial communities is critical. Here, we assess the long-term impact of high-severity fires on the soil microbiome. We find that high-severity wildfires result in a multi-decadal (>25 y) recovery of the soil microbiome mediated by concomitant differences in aboveground vegetation, soil chemistry, and microbial assembly processes. Our results depict a distinct taxonomic and functional successional pattern of increasing selection in post-fire soil microbial communities. Changes in microbiome composition corresponded with changes in microbial functional potential, specifically altered C metabolism and enhanced N cycling potential, which related to rates of potential decomposition and inorganic N availability, respectively. Based on metagenome-assembled genomes, we show that bacterial genomes enriched in our earliest site (4 y since fire) harbor distinct traits such as a robust stress response and a high potential to degrade pyrogenic, polyaromatic C that allow them to thrive in post-fire environments. Taken together, these results provide a biological basis for previously reported process rate measurements and explain the temporal dynamics of post-fire biogeochemistry, which ultimately constrains ecosystem recovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗