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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Ten Year Operating Test Results and Post-Test Analysis of a 1/10 Segment Stirling Sodium Heat Pipe, Phase III

High-temperature heat pipes are being evaluated for use in energy conversion applications such as fuel cells, gas turbine re-combustors, Stirling cycle heat sources; and with the resurgence of space nuclear power both as reactor heat removal elements and as radiator elements. Long operating life and reliable performance are critical requirements for these applications. Accordingly, long-term materials compatibility is being evaluated through the use of high-temperature life test heat pipes. Thermacore, Inc., has carried out a sodium heat pipe 10-year life test to establish long-term operating reliability. Sodium heat pipes have demonstrated favorable materials compatibility and heat transport characteristics at high operating temperatures in air over long time periods. A representative one-tenth segment Stirling Space Power Converter heat pipe with an Inconel 718 envelope and a stainless steel screen wick has operated for over 87,000 hr (10 yr) at nearly 700 C. These life test results have demonstrated the potential for high-temperature heat pipes to serve as reliable energy conversion system components for power applications that require long operating lifetime with high reliability. Detailed design specifications, operating history, and post-test analysis of the heat pipe and sodium working fluid are described.

Rosenfeld, John, H↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large scale energy analysis and renovation strategies for social housing in the historic city of Venice

Social houses built after the Second World War to accommodate workers and low-income families represent one of the major energy consumers and greenhouse gas emitters in the residential sector. Plans for their renovation are underway in all European countries, and the process is more complicated for Italian cities due to the lack of space and the large number of historical buildings. This study addresses this challenge by proposing a methodology to renovate a low-income district in the city of Venice using CityBES to model and evaluate energy conservation measures. CityBES is a web-based tool that allows users to employ urban building energy modeling for large-scale energy and retrofit analyses of building stocks. In the case study conducted for Venice's Santa Marta district, due to the particular context, four common energy conservation measures covering both the building envelope and heat generation boilers have been applied. The evaluation of energy-saving performances at the district level showed that the four measures together achieved 67% energy savings, an abatement in energy cost equal to 67%, and annual carbon dioxide emissions reduction of 1.1 MtCO 2 . Furthermore, the case study demonstrates a method and workflow replicable for energy retrofit analysis of building stocks in other historical districts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancing building energy performance by effectively using phase change material and dynamic insulation in walls

Deploying phase change materials (PCMs) in building envelopes can be efficacious in reducing space heating/cooling loads and providing load shedding and shifting capacity. However, the full potential of PCM-integrated envelopes can only be harnessed if the PCM undergoes phase change using free ambient heating/cooling, and the stored energy is effectively transferred between the exterior and the interior environments. Traditional thermal insulation (with a fixed thermal resistance) limits PCM utilization, which restrains the energy saving potential of a PCM-integrated envelope to a small percentage. Proposed dynamic insulation material and system (DIMS) provides the option of varying its thermal resistance based on the indoor and outdoor conditions. Although it has been established that employing PCM as well as DIMS in building envelopes separately improves buildings’ energy performance, no prior studies that analyzed the combined influence of both technologies were identified. In this study, we examine a novel wall design, comprising a layer of PCM between two layers of DIMS. We note that the PCM-DIMS-integrated wall provides significantly higher energy saving potential than the DIMS-only integrated wall or the PCM-only integrated wall in all the climates and wall orientations analyzed in this study. Depending on the climate, the PCM-DIMS-integrated wall could provide 15–72% reduction in annual heat gain and 7–38% reduction in annual heat loss. The analysis presented in this study supports the need to develop scalable dynamic insulations combined with thermal energy storage systems for buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2018

Verifying and assessing the performance of the perturbation strategy in polynomial chaos ensemble forecasts of the circulation in the Gulf of Mexico

Here we present an analysis of two recent efforts aimed at quantifying the uncertainties in a 30-day HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model forecast of the circulation in the Gulf of Mexico, with particular emphasis on the separation of Loop Current Eddy Franklin, using Polynomial Chaos methods. The analysis herein explores whether the model perturbations lead to realistic representation of the uncertainty in the Gulf Circulation. Comparisons of model output with Sea Surface Height and current mooring data show that the observational data generally falls within the envelope of the ensemble and that the modal decomposition delivers “realistic” perturbations in the Loop Current region. We use information theory metrics to quantify the information gain and the computational trade-offs between different wind and initial conditions perturbation modes. The relative entropy measures indicate that two modes for initial condition perturbations are enough, in our model configuration, to represent the uncertainty in the Loop Current region; while two modes for wind forcing perturbations are necessary in order to estimate the uncertainty in the coastal zone. The ensemble statistics are then explored using the Polynomial Chaos surrogate and the newly developed contour boxplot methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Defect-induced exciton localization in bulk gallium nitride from many-body perturbation theory

We present a many-body perturbation theory study of the excitonic properties of wurtzite GaN containing a single charged nitrogen vacancy. We determine that the lowest-energy exciton consists of a bulk to defect transition, resulting in a slight redshift (<0.1 eV) of the optical absorption onset and a 50 meV increase in the exciton binding energy when compared with pristine bulk. Furthermore, by analysis of the electron-hole correlation function, we quantify the defect-induced localization of the Wannier-Mott exciton in two ways. First, we show that the electron-hole separation is reduced, and that the exciton envelope wave function can be related to a simple model of a defect-bound exciton. Second, we show that the exciton center-of-mass does not display the periodicity of the lattice due to defect-induced localization. We anticipate that our approach, which quantitatively describes the influence of a point defect on the exciton wave function, will be generally applicable.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1972

Design study of an air pump and integral lift engine ALF-504 using the Lycoming 502 core

Design studies were conducted for an integral lift fan engine utilizing the Lycoming 502 fan core with the final MQT power turbine. The fan is designed for a 12.5 bypass ratio and 1.25:1 pressure ratio, and provides supercharging for the core. Maximum sea level static thrust is 8370 pounds with a specific fuel consumption of 0.302 lb/hr-lb. The dry engine weight without starter is 1419 pounds including full-length duct and sound-attenuating rings. The engine envelope including duct treatment but not localized accessory protrusion is 53.25 inches in diameter and 59.2 inches long from exhaust nozzle exit to fan inlet flange. Detailed analyses include fan aerodynamics, fan and reduction gear mechanical design, fan dynamic analysis, engine noise analysis, engine performance, and weight analysis.

Rauch, D.↗
NASA NTRS1982

An improved switching converter model

The nonlinear modeling and analysis of dc-dc converters in the continuous mode and discontinuous mode was done by averaging and discrete sampling techniques. A model was developed by combining these two techniques. This model, the discrete average model, accurately predicts the envelope of the output voltage and is easy to implement in circuit and state variable forms. The proposed model is shown to be dependent on the type of duty cycle control. The proper selection of the power stage model, between average and discrete average, is largely a function of the error processor in the feedback loop. The accuracy of the measurement data taken by a conventional technique is affected by the conditions at which the data is collected.

Shortt, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Supersonic throughflow fans for high-speed aircraft

Increased need for more efficient long-range supersonic flight has revived interest in the supersonic throughflow fan as a possible component for advanced high-speed propulsion systems. A fan that can operate with supersonic inlet axial Mach numbers would reduce the inlet losses incurred in diffusing the flow from supersonic Mach numbers to a subsonic one at the fan face. In addition, the size and weight of an all-supersonic inlet will be substantially lower than those of a conventional inlet. However, the data base for components of this type is practically nonexistent. Therefore, in order to furnish the required information for assessing the potential for this type of fan, the NASA Lewis Research Center has begun a program to design, analyze, build, and test a fan stage that is capable of operating with supersonic axial velocities from inlet to exit. The objectives are to demonstrate the feasibility and potential of supersonic throughflow fans, to gain a fundamental understanding of the flow physics associated with such systems, and to develop an experimental data base for design and analysis code validation. A brief overview of past supersonic throughflow fan activities are provided; the technology needs discussed; the design of a supersonic throughflow fan stage, a facility inlet, and a downstream diffuser described; and the results from the analysis codes used in executing the design are presented. Also presented is an engine concept intended to permit establishing supersonic throughflow within the fan on the runway and maintaining the supersonic throughflow condition within the fan throughout the flight envelope.

Ball, Calvin L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

High-angle-of-attack yawing moment asymmetry of the X-31 aircraft from flight test

Significant yawing moment asymmetries were encountered during the high-angle-of-attack envelope expansion of the two X-31 aircraft. These asymmetries led to position saturations of the thrust vector vanes and trailing-edge flaps during some of the dynamic stability axis rolling maneuvers at high angles of attack. This slowed the high-angle-of-attack envelope expansion and resulted in maneuver restrictions. Several aerodynamic modifications were made to the X-31 forebody with the goal of minimizing the asymmetry. A method for determining the yawing moment asymmetry from flight data was developed and an analysis of the various configuration changes completed. The baseline aircraft were found to have significant asymmetries above 45 deg angle of attack with the largest asymmetry typically occurring around 60 deg angle of attack. Applying symmetrical boundary layer transition strips along the forebody sides increased the magnitude of the asymmetry and widened the angle-of-attack range over which the largest asymmetry acted. Installing longitudinal forebody strakes and rounding the sharp nose of the aircraft caused the yawing moment asymmetry magnitude to be reduced. The transition strips and strakes made the asymmetry characteristic of the aircraft more repeatable than the clean forebody configuration. Although no geometric differences between the aircraft were known, ship 2 consistently had larger yawing moment asymmetries than ship 1.

Cobleigh, Brent R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Component-Level Analysis of Heating and Cooling Loads in the U.S. Residential Building Stock

The residential building sector accounts for a substantial portion of total energy consumption in the United States and offers a significant opportunity for energy reduction and decarbonization through improvements in energy efficiency. Heating and air conditioning are the primary contributors to residential energy usage and electricity system peak demand. However, due to the diversity of the housing stock and the complexity of factors affecting heating and cooling demand, identifying the relative contributions to heating and cooling loads poses challenges. To address this, we applied the ResStock analysis tool to simulate 550,000 building energy models, providing statistical representation of residential buildings in the contiguous United States. We introduced outputs that quantified the heating and cooling influence of different components of a home, such as air leakage, envelope components (ceilings, walls, windows, foundations), internal heat gains from people, lighting, plug loads, and duct losses and gains. Leveraging the granularity of ResStock, we present a dataset to enable deeper understanding of the contributors to heating and cooling loads as a function of housing characteristics such as location, envelope efficiency, and building type. This work aims to support prioritization of research and development and informed decision-making for residential building decarbonization.

building simulation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard and Risk Estimates: Insights from RAFT, CHAZ, MIT, STORM, and CLIMADA

We synthesize five complementary tropical cyclone (TC) hazard frameworks—RAFT (physics-based machine learning), CHAZ and MIT (statistical–dynamical), STORM (fully statistical), and CLIMADA (observation-driven resampling)—to characterize uncertainty in wind-related TC metrics relevant to energy applications. All datasets and the IBTrACS observational record are harmonized to a common 6-hourly, 2.5° grid. We compare basin-wide and coastal properties using consistent definitions for TC frequency, mean and maximum intensity, 24-hour intensification, and 6-hour translation speed, and quantify agreement with Pearson r, RMSE, and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) alongside resampling-based confidence intervals. CLIMADA is included for basin context but excluded from coastal skill scoring because it resamples historical IBTrACS; if supplied with projected future tracks from an external hazard model, CLIMADA can be used to simulate future TC scenarios. Results show robust, cross-model signals: (i) a corridor of activity from the tropical Atlantic through the Caribbean into the Bahamas and western subtropical Atlantic; (ii) a meridional dipole in 24-hour intensification (low-latitude strengthening, subtropical weakening); and (iii) a transition from slower tropical motion to faster midlatitude translation. Coastal winds (mean and maximum) consistently cluster from the eastern Gulf into the Bahamas–western Atlantic transition. The largest structural spread occurs in the amplitude and footprint of lifetime maximum intensity and, secondarily, in translation speed; intensification exhibits similar central behavior across frameworks with variability in extremes. Translation speed shows the most uniform coastal agreement. These findings provide a decision envelope for wind-focused risk screening and clarify where uncertainty should be carried forward; wind-only results represent a lower bound on total hazard, motivating integration of surge and rainfall modules and a companion, asset-level damage analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of MiniFuel Subcapsule Design Recommendations on Previous Experiments

MiniFuel describes the class of separate effects nuclear fuels irradiation experiments that have been conducted in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) since 2018. These experiments comprise a stack of six fuel-bearing subcapsules contained in a stainless steel target housing that is in contact with HFIR coolant on its exterior. All MiniFuel targets have a near-standardized architecture, and the primary design variables that change between experiments are the radial gap size between the subcapsule and housing and the target fill gas composition. Finite element heat transfer models are used to determine the optimum gas composition and gap sizes, and recent studies were performed to identify model parameters that contribute the most uncertainty to fuel specimen temperature predictions. That work, which is referenced herein, also recommended a set of design modifications to the subcapsule internal architecture and assembly process. These modifications are intended to reduce fuel temperature uncertainty in future experiments. In this report, the subcapsule design modifications were retroactively applied to a previously conducted MiniFuel experiment to determine how these changes affect the established safety and performance envelope of the experimental capability. These effects were determined in two steps. First, the modifications were applied to the subcapsule design without any other changes to determine their isolated effect on the predicted fuel specimen temperatures. This portion of the analysis showed that fuel temperatures were modestly reduced because the implemented changes improved heat transfer efficacy. Next, traditional MiniFuel design activities (i.e., sizing the gas gaps and determining the fill gas composition) were reperformed, and they confirmed that the original desired fuel temperatures could be achieved while remaining within established safety limits. Therefore, this report demonstrates improved performance resulting from the subcapsule modifications, which mitigate uncertainty while meeting the objectives of past experiments. An additional benefit of the design changes is reduced sensitivity of the fuel temperature to the evolving flux spectrum in HFIR, leading to more stable temperatures and enhanced utility of MiniFuel as a separate effects irradiation platform.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1998

Redesign of a Variable-Gain Output Feedback Longitudinal Controller Flown on the High-Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV)

This paper describes a redesigned longitudinal controller that flew on the High-Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV) during calendar years (CY) 1995 and 1996. Linear models are developed for both the modified controller and a baseline controller that was flown in CY 1994. The modified controller was developed with three gain sets for flight evaluation, and several linear analysis results are shown comparing the gain sets. A Neal-Smith flying qualities analysis shows that performance for the low- and medium-gain sets is near the level 1 boundary, depending upon the bandwidth assumed, whereas the high-gain set indicates a sensitivity problem. A newly developed high-alpha Bode envelope criterion indicates that the control system gains may be slightly high, even for the low-gain set. A large motion-base simulator in the United Kingdom was used to evaluate the various controllers. Desired performance, which appeared to be satisfactory for flight, was generally met with both the low- and medium-gain sets. Both the high-gain set and the baseline controller were very sensitive, and it was easy to generate pilot-induced oscillation (PIO) in some of the target-tracking maneuvers. Flight target-tracking results varied from level 1 to level 3 and from no sensitivity to PIO. These results were related to pilot technique and whether actuator rate saturation was encountered.

Ostroff, Aaron J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Development of a Flexible Framework of Common Hypersonic Navier-Strokes Meshes for the Space Shuttle Orbiter

A flexible framework for the development of block structured volume grids for hypersonic Navier-Stokes flow simulations was developed for analysis of the Shuttle Orbiter Columbia. The development of the flexible framework, resulted in an ability to quickly generate meshes to directly correlate solutions contributed by participating groups on a common surface mesh, providing confidence for the extension of the envelope of solutions and damage scenarios. The framework draws on the experience of NASA Langely and NASA Ames Research Centers in structured grid generation, and consists of a grid generation process that is implemented through a division of responsibilities. The nominal division of labor consisted of NASA Johnson Space Center coordinating the damage scenarios to be analyzed by the Aerothermodynamics Columbia Accident Investigation (CAI) team, Ames developing the surface grids that described the computational volume about the orbiter, and Langely improving grid quality of Ames generated data and constructing the final volume grids. Distributing the work among the participants in the Aerothermodynamic CIA team resulted in significantly less time required to construct complete meshes than possible by any individual participant. The approach demonstrated that the One-NASA grid generation team could sustain the demand for new meshes to explore new damage scenarios within a aggressive timeline.

Alter, Stephen J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of Duct Propagation Models

This paper presents results of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses conducted to assess the relative merits of three duct propagation codes. Results from this study are intended to support identification of a "working envelope" within which to use the various approaches underlying these propagation codes. This investigation considers a segmented liner configuration that models the NASA Langley Grazing Incidence Tube, for which a large set of measured data was available. For the uncertainty analysis, the selected input parameters (source sound pressure level, average Mach number, liner impedance, exit impedance, static pressure and static temperature) are randomly varied over a range of values. Uncertainty limits (95% confidence levels) are computed for the predicted values from each code, and are compared with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals in the measured data. Generally, the mean values of the predicted attenuation are observed to track the mean values of the measured attenuation quite well and predicted confidence intervals tend to be larger in the presence of mean flow. A two-level, six factor sensitivity study is also conducted in which the six inputs are varied one at a time to assess their effect on the predicted attenuation. As expected, the results demonstrate the liner resistance and reactance to be the most important input parameters. They also indicate the exit impedance is a significant contributor to uncertainty in the predicted attenuation.

Nark, Douglas M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SLS Integrated Modal Test Uncertainty Quantification using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Uncertainty in structural loading during launch is a significant concern in the development of spacecraft and launch vehicles. Small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interaction can result in significant variation in system loads. In many cases involving large aerospace systems it is difficult, not economical, or impossible to perform a system modal test. However, it is still vital to obtain test results that can be compared with analytical predictions to validate models. Instead, the “Building Block Approach” is used in which system components are tested individually. Component models are correlated and updated to agree as best they can with test results. The Space Launch System consists of a number of components that are assembled into a launch vehicle. Finite element models of the components are developed, reduced to Hurty/Craig-Bampton models and assembled to represent different phases of flight. The only opportunity to obtain modal test data from an assembled Space Launch System will be during the Integrated Modal Test. There is always uncertainty in every model, which flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty Quantification is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. For the Space Launch System, model uncertainty is at the Hurty/Craig-Bampton component level. Uncertainty in the Hurty/Craig-Bampton components is quantified using the hybrid parametric variation approach that combines parametric and nonparametric uncertainty. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. This type of uncertainty cannot be represented by variations infinite element model input parameters and thus cannot be included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory. The hybrid parametric variation method requires the selection of dispersion values for the Hurty/Craig-Bampton fixed-interface eigenvalues, and the Hurty/Craig-Bampton stiffness matrices. Component test/analysis frequency error is used to identify the fixed-interface eigenvalue dispersions, while test/analysis cross-orthogonality is used to identify stiffness dispersion values. The hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach is applied to the Space Launch System Integrated Modal Test configuration. Monte Carlo analysis is performed, and statistics are determined for modal correlation metrics, frequency response from Integrated Modal Test shakers to selected accelerometers, as well as other metrics for determining how well target modes are excited and identified. If the predicted uncertainty envelopes future Integrated Modal Test results, then there will be increased confidence in the utility of the component-based hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach.

Uncertainty Quantification↗