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SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual (V.4.54)

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re %3C 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton's method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic h-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria's more advanced capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The use of seismic spatial gradients in a single layer neural network for seismic source discrimination: proof of concept

This report describes a proof-of-concept method of seismic source discrimination using seismic gradiometry and a common machine learning technique. The tests described here are purely numerical, using synthetic seismic data and well understood mathematical techniques. The primary innovation described here is the application of a richer seismic data set derived from seismic gradiometry. Seismic gradiometry is a method to estimate the time variable spatial gradient of the wavefield to compute various wavefield attributes such as slowness, dynamic strain, and rotational motions. With the addition of these wavefield attributes, we are afforded up to twenty "compo- nents" of time series data measured at a single point on, or in, the Earth. This is in direct contrast to conventional three-component seismic data collected at several locations using a seismic network. Using the gradiometrically-derived wavefield components directly in a single-layer neural network, I show that it is possible to discriminate between three common seismic source types (earthquakes, explosions, and opening fractures) for various noise conditions and gradiometry configurations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual - Version 4.56

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process ows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newtons method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic h-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Arias more advanced capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual - Version 4.58

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (R e < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newtons method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Arias more advanced capabilities.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual - Version 4.58

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number ( %3C 1 ) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newtons method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic -adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Arias more advanced capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Advanced High-Performance Computational Modeling of the Seismic Response of High-Hazard and/or Nuclear Facilities and Critical Infrastructure at the NNSS

New methods for predicting the amplitude and variability of ground shaking from earthquakes (and explosions) are needed for seismic hazard analysis for buildings, nuclear power plants, and critical infrastructure at the NNSS. We are comparing existing 1-D and new 3-D geophysical methods for estimating the shear-wave velocity structure in the upper 30 meters of the ground surface (Vs30), which plays a major role in ground motion amplification and seismic response of buildings. We evaluate the performance of these methodologies at the U1a Complex at the NNSS and develop simple 1-D and high-resolution 3-D Vs30 models. We then emplace these high-resolution models into a background seismic velocity model. We will collaborate with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to conduct numerical modeling of the ground shaking at the NNSS using their high-performance computing technology and state-of-the-art ground motion simulation methodology. The primary work that was completed in FY 2019 was to acquire the seismic systems and familiarize staff at the NNSS with their use. We also worked on developing a collection plan with the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the NNSS, but due to time constraints and other ongoing projects at the DAF, we had to use U1a as a backup. We were able to coordinate the seismic survey, and we will complete the collection of seismic data in FY 2020. Additionally, during FY 2019, we completed the geologic framework model (GFM) for the U1a Complex and modeled the Yucca fault. LLNL worked with us through FY 2019 to prepare the data files for their modeling software and tested the software for reliability. In FY 2020 we will develop the end-to-end capability so that any facility could easily be modeled and the expected shaking from a local earthquake understood. The work in FY 2020 will include building fault models from the GFM and finalizing the velocity model analysis. The final simulations will be run for multiple rupture models, and final assessments will demonstrate the seismic hazard at the U1a Complex.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual (V.5.0)

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process %1Cows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newtons method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic h-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Arias more advanced capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual (V.5.0)

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number ( Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newtons method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic -adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Arias more advanced capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Progress Report on Performance of A709 and G91 Steels in Sodium

Specimens in six different processing and heat treatment conditions of A709 H58776 were exposed to sodium at 550, 600, and 650°C, respectively for various exposure times. G91 base metal was tested in sodium at 550, 600, and 650°C, and G91 weldment at 550 and 600°C, respectively. Parallel thermal aging experiments were conducted on G91 and A709 to obtain thermal aging data for comparison with sodium exposure results to separate the thermal and sodium effects. The corrosion data obtained on A709 steel continue to show low corrosion rates, which indicate good compatibility of A709 with sodium when oxygen content is controlled. G91 has also shown acceptable corrosion rates over the temperature range of 550-650°C in sodium. Thermal aging or sodium exposures reduced the tensile strength, uniform elongation, and total elongation for A709 ESR, AOD specimens. These specimens consistently showed higher yield stress and tensile strength and lower uniform and total elongations after sodium exposure than after thermal aging under comparable testing conditions. It implies that there was an additional effect of sodium exposure that gave rise to an increase in tensile strength of A709. Dynamic strain aginginduced flow serrations were completely removed by either thermal aging or sodium exposure at 650°C, which imply that carbon or nitrogen in solution was removed from the solution and formed precipitates during aging or sodium exposures. The tensile data ruled out the possibility of decarburization under the sodium exposure conditions. The HOMO specimens behaved somewhat differently from the ESR and AOD specimens in sodium. While thermal aging and sodium exposures at 550 and 600°C decreased the yield stress and the ultimate tensile strength of G91, there was virtually no additional effect resulting from sodium exposures at these two temperatures. In contrast, sodium exposures at 650°C had a drastic effect on the yield stress and the ultimate tensile strength of G91. It is suggested that G91 experienced decarburization in the 650°C sodium environments. Carbon concentrations in sodium in the SMT-1 and SMT-2 loops were determined by a foil equilibration method. The estimated carbon concentration was in the range of 0.8-1.2 ppm in the SMT-1 loop and 0.3-0.7 ppm in the SMT-2 loop. The carbon activity in sodium in the SMT-2 loop was estimated to be 0.03-0.08 at 600°C, and 0.08-0.2 at 550°C. The carbon activity in sodium at 650°C in the SMT-1 loop was 0.04-0.07. Equilibrium simulation of the carburization – decarburization processes was conducted for A709 and G91 steels exposed in sodium environments at temperatures of 550-700°C. The carbon activity-concentration relationship for G91 was re-evaluated by considering four phases in G91, i.e. bcc ferrite, M 23 C 6 , NbC and VC carbides. It was found that the carburization-decarburization process in G91 steel was dictated by M 23 C 6 carbides at high carbon activities, while NbC carbides dominated the process at low carbon activities. Formation of NbC increases the decarburization resistance of G91 steel. It remains to be understood whether the decarburization resistance provided by MC carbides in G91 can be maintained during long-term operations of SFRs. The carbon concentration-activity relationship for A709 was calculated based on the equilibrium of fcc-austenite and M 23 C 6 carbide phase. The calculations showed that A709 decarburizes at 650°C in the SMT-1 loop environments, which is different from the experimental findings. The carbon concentration-activity relationship in A709 was further evaluated by considering four phases, including fcc-austenite, M 23 C 6 , NbC, and TiC carbide phases. TiC is the most stable carbides among the three carbide phases. The carburization-decarburization process in A709 is dictated by M 23 C 6 carbides at high carbon activities and by TiC at low carbon activities. Formation of TiC increases the decarburization resistance of A709 steel. Because of the complexity of the precipitation process in A709 during sodium exposures, detailed characterization of precipitates in sodium-exposed specimens and improved thermodynamic models are needed to understand the carburization-decarburization behavior of A709. Kinetic analysis of carbon transfer will be investigated for G91 and A709 in future work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaluation of Attila and MCNP computational methods for dose and exposure estimation

Radiation transport calculations are often used to estimate dose or exposure to components and personnel surrounding a radiation source. The sources for these calculations are decaying radionuclides within various nuclear materials. Historically, dose calculations use MCNP (Monte Carlo N-Particle) transport code as the primary particle transport tool without a secondary computational tool to validate the results from the MCNP simulations [1]. The goal of this study is to make an independent check of the Monte Carlo solution from MCNP6 Version 6.2.1 with the discrete ordinates solution from Attila 10.2.0 Beta 3. As an example problem for this study, water-filled, stainless-steel vessels, modeled with an unstructured mesh (UM) with both MCNP and Attila [2], are exposed to 252Cf and 60Co point sources. This report also includes a discussion of the limitations of unstructured mesh in a MCNP calculation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Oak Ridge National Laboratory EPA Approval Letters and Historical Documentation for a Modification in Applying 40 CFR Part 61 Appendix D

Appendix D of Title 40 Part 61, “Methods for Estimating Radionuclide Emissions,” of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) provides a procedure that US Department of Energy (DOE) facility owners and operators can use to estimate radionuclide emissions to the atmosphere for dose calculations instead of measuring emissions for minor sources under 40 CFR Part 61, Subpart H, “National Emission Standards for Emissions of Radionuclides Other than Radon from Department of Energy Facilities.” The procedure assumes that any radioactive material heated above 100°C is completely vaporized and emitted to the atmosphere. In 1991, the DOE Oak Ridge Reservation (DOE-ORR) requested approval to use different release fractions (RFs) for uranium because of its high melting and boiling points (1,132°C and 3,818°C, respectively). In response to the request, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region IV approved the use of modified RFs for elemental uranium provided no reaction had taken place to alter its chemical form. In 2015, DOE-ORR requested approval to use different RFs for radioactive tungsten, also because of its high melting and boiling points (3,410°C and 5,660°C, respectively). EPA Region IV approved the use of modified RFs for heated radioactive tungsten metal. In accordance with the two precedents set for heating uranium and radioactive tungsten metals, in 2016, DOE-ORR requested approval to use modified RFs in similar fashion for other radioactive solid metals and compounds with melting and boiling points above 500°C that might be heated above 100°C in future research projects and experiments, and again, the EPA Region IV granted approval to use modified RFs for the list of compounds. This document contains the EPA approval letters and historical documentation used in the process to obtain approval for the use of alternative Appendix D emission factors. The approval to DOE-ORR allows modifying the existing regulatory RFs to 1 when radioactive solid metals and compounds are heated to temperatures greater than or equal to the boiling point of the solid, to 10 -3 when radioactive solid metals and compounds are heated to temperatures greater than or equal to 90% of the melting point and less than the boiling point of the solid, and to 10 -6 when radioactive solid materials are heated to temperatures above ambient air temperature but below 90% of the melting point of the solid.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual (V.5.4)

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton’s method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic ℎ-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria’s more advanced capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual (Version.5.2)

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton’s method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic ℎ-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria’s more advanced capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual (V.5.2)

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton’s method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic ℎ-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria’s more advanced capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual (V.5.4)

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton’s method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic ℎ-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria’s more advanced capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual (V.5.6)

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number ( $Re$ < 1 ) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton's method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic $h$-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria's more advanced capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual (V.5.6)

Aria is a Galerkin nite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton’s method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic ℎ-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria’s more advanced capabilities.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Coordinated Ramping Product and Regulation Reserve Procurements in CAISO and MISO using Multi-Scale Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts (Pro2R)

How can probabilistic solar forecasts lower costs and improve reliability for independent system operator (ISO) markets? We tackle this question in three steps. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty in those forecasts to error distributions for net load ramps for the California ISO (CAISO) using statistical and machine learning methods. Projected net load errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Finally, a multi-period look-ahead production cost model quantifies how conditional ramp requirements can a) decrease operating costs by lowering requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods, and b) reduce generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. In addition to the products just described (quantification of solar uncertainty, its translation into requirements for ramp capability product, and quantification of the benefits of more accurate ramp requirements), this project also developed a visualization system that alerts system operators of ramp and uncertainty conditions within the network based on solar forecasts. The system is called Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RaVIS). These four products represent significant advances in the state-of-the-art of probabilistic solar forecasting, development of weather-informed reserve requirements, production costing methods for estimating the benefits of more accurate reserve requirements, and visualization of system status, respectively. Yet the products are also practical and can be immediately implemented, potentially enabling system operators to save millions of dollars in ramp product procurement costs per year.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗