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DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian calibration and uncertainty quantification of a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for polymer interfaces

In this work we present a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for the fracture of polymeric interfaces and performs a Bayesian calibration, an uncertainty quantification, and a sensitivity analysis for the model. The proposed cohesive zone model accounts for both reversible elastic and irreversible rate-dependent separation sliding deformation at the interface. The viscous dissipation due to the irreversible opening at the interface is modeled using elastic-viscoplastic kinematics that incorporates the effects of strain rate. Inverse calibration of parameters for such complex models through trial and error is challenging due to the large number of parameters of the model. Moreover, the calibrated parameter values are often non-unique and uncertain when the available experimental data is limited. To tackle this challenge, we employ a Bayesian calibration approach to identify parameters from experimental data, the resulting parameters significantly enhance the accuracy of the model. To quantify the uncertainty associated with the inverse parameter estimation, a modular Bayesian approach is employed to calibrate the unknown model parameters, accounting for the parameter uncertainty of the cohesive zone model. The advantages of the Bayesian calibration over a deterministic parameter fit are demonstrated. Further, to quantify the model uncertainties, such as incorrect assumptions or missing physics, a discrepancy function is introduced, which significantly improves the model’s prediction. Finally, the total uncertainty of the model is quantified in a predictive setting. A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess how changes in the input variables of the model affect the peak load, facilitating the identification of a concise set of highly influential parameters. The present approach can be used for calibration and uncertainty quantification for other complex computational mechanics models. It should also facilitate the designing of interface materials under uncertainty.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayes_Opt-SWMM: A Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization tool for real-time flood modeling with SWMM

Real-time flood model plays a pivotal role in averting urban flood damage, particularly when there is minimal lead time for preparatory measures. However, urban flood modeling in real-time often contends with inherent uncertainties arising from input data uncertainty and parameter ambiguities. Here this study introduces a real-time calibration (RTC) tool called Bayes_Opt-SWMM, specifically tailored for real-time urban flood modeling and uncertainty optimization. This tool leverages the Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization algorithm and interfaces seamlessly with the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM). It integrates real-time model forcing data and flood monitoring collected through sensors and gauges which are strategically placed within critical locations of urban drainage systems. Our approach hinges on the Surrogate Model based Uncertainty Optimization (SMUO) concept, providing an avenue for enhancing real-time flood modeling. Bayes_Opt-SWMM runs the optimization process using a surrogate model called Gaussian Process emulator with two inference methods: (1) the Gaussian Process (GP) model and (2) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm in GP model (GP_MCMC). Furthermore, three acquisition functions, namely Expected Improvement (EI), Maximum Probability of Improvement (MPI), and Lower Confidence Bound (LCB), facilitate optimal parameter fitting within the surrogate models. The efficiency of GP-based surrogate models in learning SWMM model parameters, leads to an improved uncertainty quantification and accelerated real-time flood modeling in urban areas. Overall, Bayes_Opt-SWMM emerges as a cost-effective and valuable tool for real-time flood modeling and monitoring, with significant potential for managing intelligent storm water systems in urban environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sound velocities and thermal equation of state of fcc -iron-nickel alloys at high pressure and high temperature: Implications for the cores of Moon and several planets

Fcc-Fe-Ni alloy is believed to be the most dominant solid constitute of moderate-sized terrestrial planetary cores. Investigating the physical properties, especially the density and sound velocity of Fe-Ni alloys and comparing them with seismic observations is an indispensable approach to constructing compositional models for planetary interiors. In this study, we conducted sound velocity measurements on Fe-Ni alloys with 10 wt.% and 20 wt.% Ni up to ∼13.5 GPa and 1073 K, using the ultrasonic interferometry technique in a multi-anvil apparatus in conjunction with synchrotron radiation. By fitting the experimental data to finite strain equations, the bulk and shear moduli and their pressure and temperature derivatives are derived, yielding K S0 =145.8(14) GPa, G 0 = 73.2(7) GPa, K S0 ’ = 5.89(24), G 0 ’ = 2.89(8), (∂K S /∂T) P = -0.0181(12) GPa/K and (∂G/∂T) P = -0.0393(10) GPa/K for fcc-Fe 80 Ni 20 . An examination of the density-velocity relationship shows that compressional wave velocity is insensitive to temperature within the current pressure and temperature range, while shear wave velocity exhibits a large reduction with increasing temperature. Here, extrapolation of the sound velocities following the finite strain theories suggests that much slower Vs should be expected at pressure and temperature conditions corresponding to those of the lunar core. Possible core density and velocity profiles for other moderate planets and satellites, such as Mars, Mercury, and Ganymede are also calculated.

Equation of state↗

DOE OSTI2024

Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union

The reduction of European Union's pipeline gas imports from Russia as a consequence of the Russian war against Ukraine has had severe economy-wide implications for the EU. Using a multisector integrated assessment model (GCAM), we find that a potential complete cut-off of Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU unevenly impacts the energy mix, prices, and trade flows of different subregions within the EU, depending on their access to alternative gas pipelines and LNG infrastructure. Moreover, there are also large changes in the volume and geographical distribution of global gas infrastructure capacity additions and stranded assets. Our results show that by significantly reducing demand for natural gas, the EU Fit-for-55 policy framework already improves resilience against a complete and persistent cut-off of Russian pipeline gas. However, further improvements in energy efficiency and renewable targets could further soften impacts, while bringing climate objectives closer in sight.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neural Posterior Estimation for Scalable and Accurate Inverse Parameter Inference in Li-Ion Batteries

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE can infer parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, even if it leads to higher voltage reconstruction errors. We also demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters). The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Zavitsas’ hydration model for electrolytes only stable in the presence of another: NaAl(OH) 4 in aqueous NaOH solution

Many aqueous electrolytes are only stable in the presence of another electrolyte, such as electrolytes that are only soluble in strong acid or base. An example is sodium aluminate [NaAl(OH) 4 ], which is only stable in aqueous NaOH. This complicates developing thermodynamic parameters because it is difficult to separate the contributions of individual electrolytes in multicomponent solutions to measured bulk thermodynamic properties. The present study develops a method to determine the liquid phase parameters from solubility data for Zavitsas’ Hydration model, a model that incorporates hydration parameters into the activities of dissolved species. Furthermore, this study uses gibbsite [Al(OH) 3 ] solubility data in aqueous NaOH solution to develop Zavitsas' model parameters for NaAl(OH) 4 simultaneously with the equilibrium constants. A good fit of the solubility data was found, showing that Zavitsas’ model is effective for this system.

Bayer process↗

DOE OSTI2024

Kinetic assessment of pulp mill-derived lime mud calcination in high CO 2 atmosphere

The chemical pulping of biomass involves the recycling of calcium through the calcination of lime mud, which is mostly comprised of calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ). Lime mud decomposes under elevated temperatures to generate calcium oxide (CaO) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the kinetics of which are strongly influenced by the CO 2 partial pressure and temperature. Oxy-fuel combustion and electrified lime kilns for lime mud calcination are intriguing methods to decarbonize this highly polluting operation within the biomass pulping industry. However, the high CO 2 concentration in oxy-fuel and electrified calcination processes alters the kinetics and overall reactivity of lime mud. For the first time, a model-fitting method is used to determine the kinetic parameters for lime mud calcination under a wide range of temperatures (550 °C–1250 °C) and under different concentrations of CO2 (0 %, 15 %, 50 %, and 90 %). A kinetic model is developed that accurately predicts the reaction rates as a function of temperature and CO 2 concentration. The apparent activation of energy for lime mud calcination is elevated under a high CO 2 environment. Relative to inert gas (N 2 , Ar), the temperature window for calcination is much smaller under high CO 2 environments. The presence of Na in lime mud does not seem to affect calcination under a high CO 2 environment. Finally, particle size variation does not have a significant effect on calcination under a high CO 2 environment.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Validation of NSFsim as a Grad-Shafranov equilibrium solver at DIII-D

Plasma shape is a significant factor that must be considered for any Fusion Pilot Plant (FPP) as it has significant consequences for plasma stability and core confinement. A new simulator, NSFsim, has been developed based on a historically successful code, DINA [1], offering tools to simulate both transport and plasma shape. Specifically, NSFsim is a free boundary equilibrium and transport solver and has been configured to match the properties of the DIII-D tokamak. This paper is focused on validating the Grad-Shafranov (GS) solver of NSFsim by analyzing its ability to recreate the plasma shape, the poloidal flux distribution, and the measurements of the simulated diagnostic signals originating from flux loops and magnetic probes in DIII-D. Five different plasma shapes are simulated to show the robustness of NSFsim to different plasma conditions; these shapes are Lower Single Null (LSN), Upper Single Null (USN), Double Null (DN), Inner Wall Limited (IWL), and Negative Triangularity (NT). The NSFsim results are compared against real measured signals, magnetic profile fits from EFIT [2], and another plasma equilibrium simulator, GSevolve [3]. EFIT reconstructions of shots are readily available at DIII-D, but GSevolve was manually ran by us to provide simulation data to compare against.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of fast-ion losses measured in MAST-U via infrared thermography and a Fast Ion Loss Detector

Fast-ion losses need to be monitored to avoid damage to plasma facing components. In existing experimental devices, the scintillator-based fast-ion loss detector (FILD) is the most advanced diagnostic for measuring fast-ion losses. However, FILDs provide only local information about the losses. Infrared (IR) thermography can be used as a complementary tool for more global monitoring of the deposition of fast-ion losses on the wall, at the expense of no velocity-space resolution. IR cameras measure the temperature of the plasma facing components. This measurement, determined by a combined effect of the thermal plasma, radiation, neutrons and fast-ion losses, can be decomposed to infer the fast-ion load on the tokamak wall. In this manuscript, a workflow to estimate fast-ion losses via IR thermography is applied to the MAST-U spherical tokamak, using a 1D approximation to extract the experimental heat flux on the FILD front face from IR data. To numerically estimate the different contributions to this total heat flux, the field-line tracing environment SMITER is used to calculate the thermal plasma contribution, the orbit-following Monte-Carlo code ASCOT to estimate the fast-ion losses, and bolometry measurements for the radiation. To validate the workflow, two discharges, L-mode plasmas with low MHD activity, were executed using on and off-axis beams, respectively. The experimentally and numerically estimated heat flux are of the same order of magnitude for the on-axis heated scenario, with a strong dependence of the estimated fast-ion losses contribution on the fit to the kinetic profiles used as input. This is also true for the off-axis heated scenario, where the total numerically estimated heat flux is 2.1 or 1.3 times higher than the maximum experimentally estimated heat flux, depending on the ASCOT input used.

FILD↗

DOE OSTI2024

Antimony stable isotope fractionation during adsorption onto birnessite: A molecular perspective from X-ray absorption spectroscopy and density functional theory

Sorption of antimony (Sb) onto birnessite significantly influences the fate of Sb in oceanic and terrestrial environments and fractionates Sb isotopes. Nevertheless, little is known about Sb isotopic fractionation during its adsorption on birnessite. Here, in this study, we show the value of Δ 123 Sb adsorbed-aqueous increases from −0.398 to −0.332 ‰ in 1 h and then decreases and stabilizes at −0.384 ‰ in 72 h. The enrichment of the light Sb isotope is predominantly due to the distortion of the octahedral symmetry. X-ray absorption spectroscopy results indicate Sb first forms a double-corner-sharing complex on birnessite and then transforms to a double-edge-sharing complex during adsorption. The optimized bond distances for double-corner-sharing (3.37 Å) and double-edge-sharing (2.90 Å) complexes calculated using density functional theory (DFT) fits well with the structure (3.41 and 3.00 Å) revealed by X-ray absorption spectroscopy, respectively. The fractionation derived from reduced partition function ratios calculated using DFT aligns well with the experimental results. Therefore, the variation in Sb isotopic fractionation during adsorption is attributed to the evolving structure of Sb complexes on birnessite. Our results demonstrate the isotopic fractionation of Sb during adsorption on birnessite and provide a molecular-scale understanding of Sb behavior, contributing to the correct reconstruction of the Sb isotope composition of ancient seawater using ferromanganese crusts and nodules, and efforts to trace Sb migration in epigenetic mining environments.

Adsorption↗

DOE OSTI2025

NdPO 4 solubility and aqueous Neodymium speciation in supercritical fluids: An experimental study at 500–700 °C and 1.7 kbar

A key aspect in the formation of rare earth elements (REE) deposits is the role of REE transport as aqueous REE complexes in supercritical hydrothermal solutions, where the nature of the aqueous complex is controlled by solution composition, temperature and pressure. Despite chloride being considered as one of the most abundant transporting ligands in magmatic-hydrothermal fluids, experimental investigations on the stability of aqueous REE chloride complexes are scarce above 300 °C. In this study, synthetic NdPO 4 crystals were reacted with non-saline and saline (0, 0.05 and 0.5 mNaCl), acidic (0.01 mHCl) aqueous solutions in a series of solubility experiments conducted at 500–700 °C and 1.7 kbar, where the solubilities were determined using a stable Nd isotope ( 145 Nd isotope spike) dilution technique. NdPO 4 solubility ranges between 28 ppm and 10,858 ppm, where solubility increases with both temperature and salinity. At 500 °C, log mNdPO 4 increases from –3.93 to –1.60 and there is a strong correlation between NdPO 4 solubility and NaCl concentrations (slope of 1.2 ± 0.3), indicating stabilization of the Nd chloride aqueous complexes with a stoichiometry corresponding to NdCl 2+ . At 600 °C, this correlation is weaker (slope of 0.4, log mNdPO 4 increases from –2.63 to –1.88) indicating the stabilization of both Nd chloride and hydroxyl species controlling solubility. At 700 °C, NdPO 4 solubility is largely independent of NaCl concentration indicating that solubility is controlled by Nd hydroxyl complexes, where stoichiometry suggests the neutral Nd(OH) 3 0 species is dominant. The solubility product (Ksp) of NdPO4 is derived from experimental data with the relation: log K sp = -41.81 – 0.057T – 20987/T, with T temperature in Kelvin. Comparison of the measured Nd phosphate solubility to thermodynamic predictions using the available Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers equation of state parameters for aqueous Nd complexes indicate that predictions are up to three orders of magnitude lower compared to experimental observations. This discrepancy is most pronounced in saline solutions, suggesting that thermodynamic properties of the REE chloride species in supercritical fluids require revision. Numerical simulations of fluid-rock interaction between acidic, saline fluids and a Strange Lake felsic mineral assemblage demonstrates that NdPO 4 solubility predictions from models are four to six orders of magnitude lower than those calculated based on empirical fits from experiments, which suggests that acidic, saline fluids may play an important role in mobilizing large amounts of light REE from 450 to 700 °C.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stable isotope equilibria in the dihydrogen-water-methane-ethane-propane system. Part 2: Experimental determination of hydrogen isotopic equilibrium for ethane-H2 from 30 to 200 °C and propane-H2 from 75 to 200 °C

The stable isotopic compositions of light n-alkanes, including methane, ethane, and propane, are often used to identify the sources and thermal maturity of natural gas samples. Though stable isotopic compositions of these molecules are commonly assumed to be controlled by kinetic isotope effects, recent studies have proposed both carbon and hydrogen isotopic equilibrium may also occur in some samples. Assessing whether samples are in isotopic equilibrium requires knowledge of light alkane equilibrium fractionation factors over geologically relevant temperatures for formation and storage (up to ∼300 °C). In this study, we report experimental results of hydrogen isotopic equilibrium between ethane and H2 from 30 to 200 °C and propane and H2 from 75 to 200 °C. We compare these results with high-level theoretical calculations and provide a preferred polynomial fit to describe equilibrium fractionation factors. Comparison of these fractionation factors with a compilation of ∼500 compiled environmental gas samples supports the proposal that many (∼50%) of these natural gas samples exhibit hydrogen isotopic compositions consistent with having formed in or attained methane-ethane-propane hydrogen isotopic equilibrium over geologically relevant temperatures for formation and storage (50–300 °C).

Turner, Andrew C↗

DOE OSTI2024

CO 2 storage site characterization using ensemble-based approaches with deep generative models

Estimating spatially distributed properties such as permeability from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in efficient subsurface CO 2 storage operations. In this paper, a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure is tested with an ensemble-based inversion method for accurate and accelerated characterization of CO 2 storage sites. We chose Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) for its realistic reservoir property representation and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) for its robust data fitting and uncertainty quantification capability. WGAN-GP are trained to generate high-dimensional permeability fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface site characterization examples including Gaussian, channelized, and fractured reservoirs are used to evaluate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown permeability fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method in several benchmark cases. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of spatial variability in vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, biodiversity, topography, and soil property on soil respiration across a coastal ecosystem

Coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs) are crucial contributors to global biogeochemical cycles and carbon exchange. A systematic evaluation of the interaction between coastal catchment properties and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission by soil respiration is significant for assessing carbon dynamics and predicting the future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in coastal TAIs. The soil CO2 efflux in these transition zones is however poorly understood due to the high spatiotemporal dynamics of TAIs, as various sub-ecosystems in this region are compressed and expanded by complex influences of tides, changes in river levels, climate, and land use. We focus on the Chesapeake Bay region to (i) investigate the spatial heterogeneity of the coastal ecosystem and identify spatial zones with similar environmental characteristics based on the spatial data layers, including vegetation index (kNDVI), climate, landcover, diversity, topography, soil property, and relative tidal elevation; (ii) understand the primary driving factors affecting soil respiration within sub-ecosystems of the coastal ecosystem. Specifically, we employed hierarchical clustering analysis to identify spatial regions with distinct environmental characteristics, followed by the determination of main driving factors using Random Forest regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations. Maximum and minimum temperature are the main drivers common to all sub-ecosystems, while each region also has additional unique major drivers that differentiate them from one another. Precipitation exerts an influence on vegetated lands, while soil pH value holds importance specifically in forested lands. In croplands characterized by high clay content and low sand content, the significant role is attributed to bulk density. Wetlands demonstrate the importance of both elevation and sand content, with clay content being more relevant in non-inundated wetlands than in inundated wetlands. The topographic wetness index significantly contributes to the mixed vegetation areas, including shrub, grass, pasture, and forest. Additionally, our research reveals that dense vegetation land covers and urban/developed areas exhibit distinct soil property drivers. Overall, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to modeling carbon fluxes in coastal TAIs, and our study highlights the importance of further research and monitoring practices to improve our understanding of carbon dynamics and promote the sustainable management of coastal TAIs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Performance evaluation of finned tube heat exchanger using curved wavy delta winglet vortex generators with circular perforations

Vortex generation is recognized as an effective passive approach to improve the heat transfer rate in fin and tube heat exchangers (FTHEs). The current study proposed innovative designs of curved wavy delta winglet vortex generators (CWDWVGs), both without and with circular perforations, to improve the heat transfer efficiency of FTHEs. There is potential to increase heat transfer performance further through various CWDWVG designs. Here, this study explores seven unique CWDWVG configurations, from 1-wave to 7-wave. A 3-D computational numerical model is utilized to evaluate the Thermo-hydraulic performance of FTHEs fitted with these different CWDWVG configurations across Reynolds numbers from 400 to 2000. This comparative analysis of the Thermo-hydraulic performance of FTHEs featuring four parallel circular tube layouts assesses configurations both with and without vortex generators (VGs) and various hole configurations. The evaluation of Thermo-hydraulic performance involves different parameters, including the London area goodness factor (LAGF), Colburn factor (j), friction factor (f), pressure drop (?P), and Nusselt number (Nu). Results demonstrate that the various CWDWVG configurations and the number of holes in them substantially affect the efficiency, as evaluated by the dimensionless Performance Evaluation Criteria (PEC). Notably, the 7-wave CWDWVGs surpassed other configurations, and integrating circular punched perforations further improved the thermal-hydraulic performance of FTHE. Specifically, the 7-wave CWDWVGs without holes demonstrated superior performance over other configurations, showing a significant increase in Nusselt number by 75.18% and 85.16% at Reynolds numbers of 2000 and 400, respectively, alongside an increase in pressure drop by 216.38% to 224.96%. Meanwhile, the 7-wave CWDWVGs with eight holes, in comparison to those without holes, exhibited a Nusselt number increase of 0.85%, a pressure drop decrease of 7.31%, and a reduction in the friction factor by 5.82%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparative Evaluation of Control-Oriented Heavy Duty Vehicle Air Drag Coefficient Models

Heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) are a significant source of fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, prompting solutions such as HDV platooning to mitigate these negative impacts through air drag reduction. The intervehicle distance in an HDV platoon needs to be carefully selected, such that the platoon-level energy efficiency and safety considerations can be well balanced. Underlying this problem lies in accurately modeling the relationship between HDV air drag coefficient and intervehicle distance. Through comprehensive evaluation and comparison, we analyze five control-oriented HDV air drag coefficient models, including the polynomial model, rational polynomial model, rational model, semi-quadratic model, and ridge model. Leveraging Scipy Curve-Fit toolbox and our previously compiled air drag coefficient datasets, we optimally identify the parameters inside each model. The calibrated models are then thoroughly evaluated via five complementary metrics. The comparison results reveal that the semi-quadratic model has the highest overall performance, while the widely adopted rational model only exhibits suboptimal performance.

Best, Micah↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generalized fiducial inference on differentiable manifolds

We introduce a novel approach to inference on parameters that take values in a Riemannian manifold embedded in a Euclidean space. Parameter spaces of this form are ubiquitous across many fields, including chemistry, physics, computer graphics, and geology. Here, this new approach uses generalized fiducial inference (GFI) to obtain a posterior-like distribution on the manifold, without needing to know local parameterizations that map to the constrained space from an unconstrained Euclidean space. Using mathematical tools from Riemannian geometry, we construct a constrained generalized fiducial distribution (CGFD). A Bernstein-von Mises-type result for the CGFD, which provides intuition for how the desirable asymptotic qualities of the unconstrained generalized fiducial distribution are inherited by the CGFD, is provided. To illustrate the practical use of the CGFD, we provide a proof-of-concept example in the context of a linear logspline density estimation problem, and demonstrate that CGFD-based confidence sets exhibit desirable coverage properties via simulation. As an application, we fit a CGFD to COVID-19 case count data from North Carolina, USA.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Investigating the Determinants of Household Capabilities Burden During Power Outages: The Case of Winter Storm Uri

Existing research primarily uses census data to identify the vulnerability of communities to hazards. These vulnerability indices provide aggregated data and are not hazard-specific nor well-validated with post-event data. In contrast, our study uses household survey data (n=1065) to understand which Texan households suffered the greatest loss of their capabilities due to power outages and other utility service disruptions during Winter Storm Uri. Inspired by the Capabilities Approach, our measures of burden include the number of household capability types disrupted during the outages (e.g., cooking, heating, refrigeration), the severity of impact for each disrupted capability, and the additional time and financial costs of coping with these disruptions. We perform a clustering analysis, and find two distinct groups in our data, consisting of ‘lesser burden' and ‘heavier burden' households. Results indicate that the households experiencing the heaviest capabilities burden were most likely to experience longer power outages and the loss of water services. They were also more likely to have a Hispanic-Latino household member, lack access to a generator, live in a rented home, have larger households with more young children, fewer adults over 65, lower household incomes, been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and more family characteristics that made life harder. We also fit a logistic regression model to assess the role of outage, household, and community characteristics in predicting differences in capabilities burden. Our results offer insights into enumerating the consequences of utility service disruptions on households, which can inform more targeted and equitable resilience strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗