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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Attenuating Sulfidogenesis in a Soured Continuous Flow Column System With Perchlorate Treatment

Hydrogen sulfide production by sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB) is the primary cause of oil reservoir souring. Amending environments with chlorate or perchlorate [collectively denoted (per)chlorate] represents an emerging technology to prevent the onset of souring. Recent studies with perchlorate reducing bacteria (PRB) monocultures demonstrated that they have the innate capability to enzymatically oxidize sulfide, thus PRB may offer an effective means of reversing souring. (Per)chlorate may be effective by (i) direct toxicity to SRB; (ii) competitive exclusion of SRB by PRB; or (iii) reversal of souring through re-oxidation of sulfide by PRB. To determine if (per)chlorate could sweeten a soured column system and assign a quantitative value to each of the mechanisms we treated columns flooded with San Francisco bay water with temporally decreasing amounts (50, 25, and 12.5 mM) of (per)chlorate. Geochemistry and the microbial community structure were monitored and a reactive transport model was developed, Results were compared to columns treated with nitrate or untreated. Souring was reversed by all treatments at 50 mM but nitrate-treated columns began to re-sour when treatment concentrations decreased (25 mM). Re-souring was only observed in (per)chlorate-treated columns when concentrations were decreased to 12.5 mM and the extent of re-souring was less than the control columns. Microbial community analyses indicated treatment-specific community shifts. Nitrate treatment resulted in a distinct community enriched in genera known to perform sulfur cycling metabolisms and genera capable of nitrate reduction. (Per)chlorate treatment enriched for (per)chlorate reducing bacteria. (Per)chlorate treatments only enriched for sulfate reducing organisms when treatment levels were decreased. A reactive transport model of perchlorate treatment was developed and a baseline case simulation demonstrated that the model provided a good fit to the effluent geochemical data. Subsequent simulations teased out the relative role that each of the three perchlorate inhibition mechanisms played during different phases of the experiment. These results indicate that perchlorate addition is an effective strategy for both souring prevention and souring reversal. It provides insight into which organisms are involved, and illuminates the interactive effects of the inhibition mechanisms, further highlighting the versatility of perchlorate as a sweetening agent.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2018

Wettability Alteration and Enhanced Oil Recovery Induced by Proximal Adsorption of Na+, Cl – , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , and SO 4 2– Ions on Calcite

The underlying wettability alteration mechanism responsible for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in carbonate reservoirs is a long-standing issue for which no consensus has yet been reached. In this paper, we report extensive quantum molecular dynamics simulations to reveal the roles of wettability modifiers Na + , Cl – , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , and SO 4 2– ions in EOR. Characterizing wettability by contact angle using the work-of-adhesion approach, we find that the calcite surface is strongly hydrophilic, with the first two wetting layers hindering all ions from reaching the surface, i.e., ions are only “proximally adsorbed.” Na + and Cl – ions settle closer to the surface and actually disturb the interfacial water structure of the first two wetting layers, which renders the surface less water-wet and thus inhibits oil recovery, as observed. Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ and SO 4 2– ions, on the other hand, settle farther from the surface and retain the interfacial water structure, but render the surface more water-wet by modifying the effective charge on the surface, which enhances oil recovery, as observed. The impact of the ions is more pronounced at high temperatures as proximal adsorption is enhanced. In addition to theory, we report new core flooding measurements that corroborate the theoretical results. We report the present study brings new insights into the wettability alteration mechanism in EOR at the atomic scale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Hydraulic Study of the South Carolina DOT Catch Basin Type 25

Proper design of surface drainage of both rural and urban highways is essential to minimize flooding and provide traffic safety. Inlets collect the excess storm water from a roadway and discharge it to storm drains. Knowing the performance of inlets (or hydraulic efficiency), defined as the percentage of intercepted flow to the total street flow, is necessary in the design of inlet spacing. The location of inlets can be determined such that the system can transport all or a majority of the road surface flow during rain events. A new type of a catch basin with an inlet grate, Type 25 (CB25), to use as drainage on South Carolina’s freeways was designed by the South Carolina Department of Transportation engineers. Because it is a new design, a study was necessary to establish the hydraulic capacity of the grate. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was chosen for this purpose, instead of more expensive and time consuming laboratory testing. CFD has been widely used in design of new transportation infrastructure, as well as performance analysis of the existing structures. Three dimensional computational fluid dynamic simulations were developed by scientists at Argonne’s Transportation Research and Analysis Computing Center with the use of high performance cluster computing. The work was performed under an inter-agency agreement between the U.S. Department of Transportation and the U.S Department of Energy and funded by the South Carolina Department of Transportation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE): Improvements and Applications for Studying Precipitation Processes

Convection is the primary transport process in the Earth's atmosphere. About two-thirds of the Earth's rainfall and severe floods derive from convection. In addition, two-thirds of the global rain falls in the tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) have been used to improve our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes and phenomena from micro-scale to cloud-scale and mesoscale as well as their interactions with radiation and surface processes. CRMs use sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes and can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems. CRMs also allow for explicit interaction between clouds, outgoing longwave (cooling) and incoming solar (heating) radiation, and ocean and land surface processes. Observations are required to initialize CRMs and to validate their results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE) has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past three decades. It is amulti-dimensional non-hydrostatic CRM that can simulate clouds and cloud systems in different environments. Early improvements and testing were presented in Tao and Simpson (1993) and Tao et al. (2003a). A review on the application of the GCE to the understanding of precipitation processes can be found in Simpson and Tao (1993) and Tao (2003). In this paper, recent model improvements (microphysics, radiation and land surface processes) are described along with their impact and performance on cloud and precipitation events in different geographic locations via comparisons with observations. In addition, recent advanced applications of the GCE are presented that include understanding the physical processes responsible for diurnal variation, examining the impact of aerosols (cloud condensation nuclei or CCN and ice nuclei or IN) on precipitation processes, utilizing a satellite simulator to improve the microphysics, providing better simulations for satellite-derived latent heating retrieval, and coupling with a general circulation model to improve the representation of precipitation processes.

GCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hy-DAT: A Tool to Address Hydropower Modeling Gaps Using Interdependency, Efficiency Curves, and Unit Dispatch Models

As the power system continues to be flooded with intermittent resources, it becomes more important to accurately assess the role of hydro and its impact on the power grid. While hydropower generation has been studied for decades, dependency of power generation on water availability and constraints in hydro operation are not well represented in power system models used in the planning and operation of large-scale interconnection studies. There are still multiple modeling gaps that need to be addressed; if not, they can lead to inaccurate operation and planning reliability studies, and consequently to unintentional load shedding or even blackouts. As a result, it is very important thathydropower is represented correctly in both steady-state and dynamic power system studies. In this paper, we discuss the development and use of the Hydrological Dispatch and Analysis Tool (Hy-DAT) as an interactive graphical user interface (GUI), that uses a novel methodology to address the hydropower modeling gaps like water availability and inter-dependency using a database, and algorithms, to generate accurate representative models for power system simulation.

Wang, Dewei↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Benefits of Global High Resolution for Climate Simulation: Process Understanding and the Enabling of Stakeholder Decisions at the Regional Scale

Many think that the time scales of the Paris Climate Agreement indicate urgent action is required on climate policies over the next few decades, in order to avoid the worst risks posed by climate change. On these relatively short time scales the combined effect of climate variability and change are both key drivers of extreme events, with decadal time scales also important for infrastructure planning. Hence, in order to assess climate risk on such time scales, we require climate models to be able to represent key aspects of both internally driven climate variability and the response to changing forcings. In this paper we argue that we now have the modeling capability to address these requirements—specifically with global models having horizontal resolutions considerably enhanced from those typically used in previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises. The improved representation of weather and climate processes in such models underpins our enhanced confidence in predictions and projections, as well as providing improved forcing to regional models, which are better able to represent local-scale extremes (such as convective precipitation). We choose the global water cycle as an illustrative example because it is governed by a chain of processes for which there is growing evidence of the benefits of higher resolution. At the same time it comprises key processes involved in many of the expected future climate extremes (e.g., flooding, drought, tropical and midlatitude storms).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model Data Archive for Manuscript Titled "Evaluation of a Coupled Surface–Subsurface Hydrologic Model Using Dense Water‑Level Sensors in a Mixed Urban–Rural Watershed"

This archive provides scripts, input files, and datasets used for the implementation and evaluation of a fully coupled surface–subsurface hydrologic model in the Neches River Basin, southeast Texas. The study uses the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) to simulate coupled surface–subsurface hydrologic processes over a mixed urban–rural watershed and evaluates model performance using a dense network of 136 in situ water-level sensors, nine U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauges, and SSEBop-derived evapotranspiration estimates during the period October 2014–June 2024. The workflow is implemented primarily in Python 3 using the Watershed Workflow package. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed using open-source software such as Anaconda JupyterLab or Visual Studio Code. Other data files include TXT, CSV, XML, SHP, TIF, NetCDF, HDF5, and ExodusII files, which can be processed using the provided Python scripts. ATS input files are provided in XML format and can be edited using any commonly used text editor. This archive contains: *Scripts and input files used to generate the ATS model setup, including watershed discretization, mesh generation, parameter mapping, and model configuration. *Jupyter notebooks used for preprocessing observational data, evaluating streamflow, water levels, and evapotranspiration, computing performance metrics, and generating the figures presented in the manuscript. *ATS simulation outputs and processed observational datasets, including OneRain and DD6 water-level sensors, USGS streamflow observations, GIS data, and supporting spatial datasets used throughout the study.

Dense water-level sensor network↗
NASA NTRS1990

Effect of emitter parameter variation on the performance of heteroepitaxial indium phosphide solar cells

Metallorganic chemical-vapor-deposited heteroepitaxial indium phosphide (InP) solar cell experimental results were simulated by using a PC-1D computer model. The effect of emitter parameter variation on the performance of n(+)/p/p(+) heteroepitaxial InP/GaAs solar cell was presented. The thinner and lighter doped emitters were observed to offer higher cell efficiencies. The influence of emitter thickness and minority carrier diffusion length on the cell efficiency with respect to dislocation density was studied. Heteroepitaxial cells with efficiencies similar to present day homojunction InP efficiencies (greater than 16 percent AMO) were shown to be attainable if a dislocation density lower than 10(exp 6)/sq cm could be achieved. A realistic optimized design study yielded InP solar cells of over 22 percent AMO efficiency at 25 C.

Jain, Raj K.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Effect of emitter parameter variation on the performance of heteroepitaxial indium phosphide solar cells

Metalorganic chemical-vapor-deposited heteroepitaxial indium phosphide (InP) solar cell experimental results were simulated by using a PC-1D computer model. The effect of emitter parameter variation on the performance of n(+)/p/p(+) heteroepitaxial InP/GaAs solar cell was presented. The thinner and lighter doped emitters were observed to offer higher cell efficiencies. The influence of emitter thickness and minority carrier diffusion length on the cell efficiency with respect to dislocation density was studied. Heteroepitaxial cells with efficiencies similar to present day homojunction InP efficiencies (greaater than 16 percent AM0) were shown to be attainable if a dislocation density lower than 10(exp 6)/sq cm could be achieved. A realistic optimized design study yielded InP solar cells of over 22 percent AM0 efficiency at 25 C.

Jain, R. K.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Understanding the consequences of hypothetical post-closure transient criticality in a geological disposal facility - 14439

Radioactive Waste Management (RWM) is responsible for implementing geological disposal of the UK's higher-activity radioactive wastes. These wastes include significant quantities of fissile nuclides and, therefore, demonstration of criticality safety for the wastes under disposal conditions forms an important component of RWM's disposal system safety case. At the time of disposal all waste packages will be safely sub-critical. Containment provided by the engineered barrier system of a geological disposal facility (GDF) will ensure that criticality is not possible for some time after disposal. However, as waste packages degrade, fissile and other materials may be mobilised, which could affect the potential for criticality. Although the likelihood of a critical configuration developing is demonstrably low, it cannot be assumed to be zero over long post-closure timescales. The UK environment agencies' Guidance on Requirements for Authorisation for a GDF includes a specific requirement to consider the consequences of hypothetical 'what-if' post-closure criticality. RWM has undertaken a programme of research to model and understand the consequences of hypothetical post-closure criticality events. Initially focused on the scenario of fissile material relocation and accumulation following intermediate level waste (ILW) disposal, two bespoke computer models were developed. The quasi-steady-state (QSS) model considered critical systems maintained by accumulation of fissile materials where the temperature feedback remains negative throughout the transient. The rapid transient model (RTM) considered systems with positive temperature feedback. The QSS model development included a successful comparison with the Oklo natural reactors. With a requirement to consider post-closure criticality for a wider range of potential waste types under different illustrative disposal concepts, the initial transient criticality models had some limitations. For the QSS model this was the assumption of fixed geometry, while the complex functional inputs required in the RTM were not readily available for different materials. For the QSS model this paper describes the model development to allow changing volume; this has enabled its application to 'what-if' scenarios of flooding within a spent fuel waste package and the slumping of a stack of ILW packages. For rapid transient criticality this paper explains how the development of a simpler 'bounding approach' model to complement the RTM has enabled transient criticality analysis for a wider range of host materials. The role of this research in demonstrating post-closure criticality safety of a GDF in the UK is presented in a companion paper which also draws on the results of a parallel research project to demonstrate that the likelihood of post-closure criticality is low. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Cross-scale modeling of storm surge, tide, and inundation in Mid-Atlantic Bight and New York City during Hurricane Sandy, 2012

Driven by high-resolution NAM (North America Mesoscale) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) atmospheric fields, a 3-D unstructured grid SCHISM (Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model) was applied to simulate total water level in the Mid-Atlantic Bight during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The simulated storm surge, tide, significant wave height, and wave peak period results compared favorably with NOAA observations along US East Coast, Long Island Sound, and New York Harbor. The maximum total water level at The Battery in the New York Harbor was accurately simulated with an absolute error of less than 0.08 m (out of 2.9 m peak surge) and a timing difference less than 10 min, which includes the effects on the order of 0.1–0.3 m (5–10%) from the coastal setup induced by the surface waves. The scenario comparisons of (1) “NAM” versus “ECMWF”, (2) “2-D” versus “3-D”, and (3) “with” versus “without” wind wave model were examined. The 3-D barotropic model forced by ECMWF including the effects of wind waves performs the best, attributed to wave-induced radiation stress and reduction of bottom stress when the 3-D version is used. Simultaneously, the ELCIRC-Sub model, using a 5-m topography/bathymetry sub-grid and a regular 200-m resolution finite volume computational model grid, was developed to simulate the street-level inundation in New York City. The momentum and mass fluxes calculated by the coarser base grid model were effectively coupled with the sub-grid so that running a full-blown high-resolution base model is not required. The ELCIRC-Sub model uses MPI (Message Passing Interface) parallel computing to enlarge the coverage of the land surface and an efficient non-linear solver to improve the accuracy of the wetting-and-drying processes. The temporal comparisons of modeled water level with NOAA's tidal stations and USGS' rapid-deployed gauges showed overall performance with an average error of 0.1 m. Particularly, ELCIRC-Sub captured the profile of the highest peak surge (3.9 m), which rose 2 m within 3 hour at Kings Point, NY. The spatial comparisons of the modeled peak water level at 80 surveyed locations showed an average error less than 0.13 m. The modeled maximum inundation extent also matched well with an 80% hit rate against FEMA's Hurricane Sandy maximum flooding extent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computing Reaction Kinetics with MC-PDFT–OPESf: Combining Multireference Electronic Structure Theory and Enhanced Sampling

Accurate rate constants are crucial for understanding and optimizing catalytic reactions mediated by enzymes, metalloproteins, and heterogeneous catalysts. These systems frequently present a dual computational challenge. Multiconfigurational reaction sites require multireference techniques for the accurate treatment of the electronic structure, and high activation barriers prevent efficient sampling of unbiased reactive transitions. In this work, we combine multiconfiguration pair-density functional theory (MC-PDFT) as an accurate and efficient multireference electronic structure method with on-the-fly probability-enhanced sampling flooding (OPESf) as an enhanced sampling method capable of accelerating reactive transitions. We demonstrate the approach on the Diels–Alder [4+2] cycloaddition between cis-butadiene and ethene as a reaction characterized by a large activation barrier and multireference character. MC-PDFT–OPESf provides reaction rates in agreement with experiments at a fraction of the computational cost required by conventional unbiased ab initio calculations. Here, we propose MC-PDFT–OPESf as an efficient approach for computing kinetics in strongly correlated molecular systems.

Chemical calculations↗
NASA NTRS2008

Constitutive Soil Properties for Unwashed Sand and Kennedy Space Center

Accurate soil models are required for numerical simulations of land landings for the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle. This report provides constitutive material models for one soil, unwashed sand, from NASA Langley's gantry drop test facility and three soils from Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The four soil models are based on mechanical and compressive behavior observed during geotechnical laboratory testing of remolded soil samples. The test specimens were reconstituted to measured in situ density and moisture content. Tests included: triaxial compression, hydrostatic compression, and uniaxial strain. A fit to the triaxial test results defines the strength envelope. Hydrostatic and uniaxial tests define the compressibility. The constitutive properties are presented in the format of LS-DYNA Material Model 5: Soil and Foam. However, the laboratory test data provided can be used to construct other material models. The four soil models are intended to be specific to the soil conditions discussed in the report. The unwashed sand model represents clayey sand at high density. The KSC models represent three distinct coastal sand conditions: low density dry sand, high density in-situ moisture sand, and high density flooded sand. It is possible to approximate other sands with these models, but the results would be unverified without geotechnical tests to confirm similar soil behavior.

Thomas, Michael A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1994

Axial focusing of impact energy in the Earth's interior: Proof-of-principle tests of a new hypothesis

A causal link between major impact events and global processes would probably require a significant change in the thermal state of the Earth's interior, presumably brought about by coupling of impact energy. One possible mechanism for such energy coupling from the surface to the deep interior would be through focusing due to axial symmetry. Antipodal focusing of surface and body waves from earthquakes is a well-known phenomenon which has previously been exploited by seismologists in studies of the Earth's deep interior. Antipodal focusing from impacts on the Moon, Mercury, and icy satellites has also been invoked by planetary scientists to explain unusual surface features opposite some of the large impact structures on these bodies. For example, 'disrupted' terrains have been observed antipodal to the Caloris impact basis on Mercury and Imbrium Basin on the Moon. Very recently there have been speculations that antipodal focusing of impact energy within the mantle may lead to flood basalt and hotspot activity, but there has not yet been an attempt at a rigorous model. A new hypothesis was proposed and preliminary proof-of-principle tests for the coupling of energy from major impacts to the mantle by axial focusing of seismic waves was performed. Because of the axial symmetry of the explosive source, the phases and amplitudes are dependent only on ray parameter (or takeoff angle) and are independent of azimuthal angle. For a symmetric and homogeneous Earth, all the seismic energy radiated by the impact at a given takeoff angle will be refocused (minus attenuation) on the axis of symmetry, regardless of the number of reflections and refractions it has experienced. Mantle material near the axis of symmetry will experience more strain cycles with much greater amplitude than elsewhere and will therefore experience more irreversible heating. The situation is very different than for a giant earthquake, which in addition to having less energy, has an asymmetric focal mechanism and a larger area. Two independent proof-of-principle approaches were used. The first makes use of seismic simulations, which are being performed with a realistic Earth model to determine the degree of focusing along the axis and to estimate the volume of material, if any, that experiences significant irreversible heating. The second involves two-dimensional hydrodynamic code simulations to determine the stress history, internal energy, and temperature rise as a function of radius along the axis.

Boslough, M. B.↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Physical Validation Program for the GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2007 - early 2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycling. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. A major requirement before the retrieved rainfall information generated by the GPM mission can be used effectively by prognostic models to improve weather forecasts, hydrometeorological forecasts, and climate model reanalysis simulations is a capability to quantify the error characteristics of the retrievals. A solution for this problem has been upheld in past precipitation missions because of the lack of suitable error modeling systems incorporated into the validation programs and data distribution systems. An overview of how NASA intends to overcome this problem for the GPM mission using a physically-based error modeling approach within a multi-faceted validation program is described. The solution is to first identify specific user requirements and then determine the most stringent of these requirements that embodies all essential error characterization information needed by the entire user community. In the context of NASA s scientific agenda for the GPM mission, the most stringent user requirement is found within the data assimilation community. The fundamental theory of data assimilation vis-a-vis ingesting satellite precipitation information into the pre-forecast initializations is based on quantifying the conditional bias and precision errors of individual rain retrievals, and the space-time structure of the precision error (i.e., the spatial-temporal error covariance). By generating the hardware and software capability to produce this information in a near real-time fashion, and to couple the derived quantitative error properties to the actual retrieved rainrates, all key validation users can be satisfied. The talk will describe the essential components of the hardware and software systems needed to generate such near real-time error properties, as well as the various paradigm shifts needed within the validation community to produce a validation program relevant to the precipitation user community.

Smith, Eric A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

CO 2 zonal injection rate allocation and plume extent evaluation through wellbore temperature analysis

Temperature analysis during a pause in injection operations, known as warmback analysis, has been used in the petroleum industry for evaluating the injection conformance and estimating the location of the flooded front in applications, such as waterflooding oil reservoirs. Here in this work, methods are introduced to extend the application of temperature warmback analysis to estimate the zonal CO 2 injection rate and zonal CO 2 plume extent during geologic CO 2 storage in a saline aquifer. First, novel analytical solutions are developed to model transient temperature in the aquifer during the injection and subsequent shut-in periods considering two-phase flow (gaseous CO 2 and aqueous brine) conditions in the aquifer. The solution involves a discretization of the aquifer into regions; the energy and mass conservation equations for the regions are solved simultaneously considering appropriate boundary conditions at the interfaces. Two solutions techniques are presented: multi-region and three-region solutions. Inverse models are developed accordingly to evaluate the injection profile and estimate the extent of the plume front in the reservoir during the injection period. The multi-region solution results in an inversion approach that requires regression analysis. However, the three-region formulation results in a simple graphical technique for inverse modeling. The analytical solutions are validated against a thermally coupled reservoir simulation tool using different synthetic cases for CO 2 injection in deep saline aquifers. The results of the developed solutions provide a good match with numerical results during forward and inverse modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Level Impacts of Extreme Climate-Related Events on Food Supply Chain: Idaho Potato's Case Study

Background: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, floods, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increasing frequencies and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperature reduces overall yields of the desirable crops but proliferates weeds and harmful pests. Current data shows that every year U.S. farmers spend more than 11 billion USD to fight weeds and this number is expected to rise in the coming years due to climate change. Due to droughts, the water required for irrigation is becoming scarcer. Since many areas are becoming climatically unusable for crop production, the amount of farmland area is shrinking rapidly. In addition, changes in precipitation patterns are causing crop failures and negatively impacting expected yields. In this study, we investigated how different extreme climate events impact different stages of a food supply chain. Approach: As a case study, we chose Idaho’s potato supply chain (SC). Idaho is the top potato producing state in the U.S. and contributes around 30% of the nation’s potato production. Using the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach, we developed a multi-echelon potato supply chain computer simulation model with six types of agents – seed producers, farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the baseline scenario, we developed two additional climate-related disruption events – drought and snowstorm. We investigated how each of these disruption events impacts different stakeholders across the supply chain in terms of revenue and some other key performance metrics such as lead time, food waste, number of delayed orders, and order fulfillment rate. Results: Extreme climate events not only impact the growers but there is also cascading ripple effects downstream of the supply chain. The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural SC to understand the vulnerabilities of the different links. The findings would potentially help to adopt new policies for the well-being of the overall SC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗