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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Connecting Large‐Scale Meteorological Patterns to Extratropical Cyclones in CMIP6 Climate Models Using Self‐Organizing Maps

Abstract Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are responsible for the majority of cool‐season extreme events in the northeastern United States (NEUS), often leading to high‐impact weather conditions that can have wide‐ranging socioeconomic impacts. Evaluating the ability of climate models to adequately simulate ETC dynamics is essential for improving model performance and increasing confidence in future projections used by stakeholders and policymakers. ETCs are traditionally studied using techniques such as case studies and synoptic typing, however, these approaches can be time‐consuming, require subjective analysis, and do not necessarily identify the coincident large‐scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Here, we apply self‐organizing maps (SOMs) as an automated machine‐learning approach to characterize the LSMPs and associated frequency and intensity of discrete ETC events over NEUS. The dominant patterns of geopotential height variability are identified through SOM analysis of five reanalysis products during the last four decades. ETC events are tracked using TempestExtremes and are integrated with SOMs to classify the accumulated cyclone activity (ACA) associated with each pattern. We then evaluate the skill of CMIP6 historical experiments in simulating the LSMPs and ETC events identified in the SOM. Our results identify a robust bias toward more zonal patterns, with models struggling to reproduce the more amplified patterns typically associated with the highest cyclone activity. While model resolution has some impact on simulation credibility, model configuration appears to be more important in LSMP representation. The vast majority of CMIP6 models produce too few ETCs, although model errors are distributed around historical reanalyses when ACA is normalized by storm frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

GIScience in the era of Artificial Intelligence: a research agenda towards Autonomous GIS

The advent of generative AI exemplified by large language models (LLMs) opens new ways to represent and compute geographic information and transcends the process of geographic knowledge production, driving geographic information systems (GIS) towards autonomous GIS. Leveraging LLMs as the decision core, autonomous GIS can independently generate and execute geoprocessing workflows to perform spatial analysis. In this vision paper, we further elaborate on the concept of autonomous GIS and present a conceptual framework that defines its five autonomous goals, five levels of autonomy, five core functions, and three operational scales. We demonstrate how autonomous GIS could perform geospatial data retrieval, spatial analysis, and map making with four proof-of-concept GIS agents. We conclude by identifying critical challenges and future research directions, including fine-tuning and self-growing decision-cores, autonomous modelling, and examining the societal and practical implications of autonomous GIS. By establishing the groundwork for a paradigm shift in GIScience, this paper envisions a future where GIS moves beyond traditional workflows to autonomously reason, derive, innovate, and advance geospatial solutions to pressing global challenges. Meanwhile, we emphasize that as we design and deploy increasingly intelligent geospatial systems, we carry a responsibility to ensure they are developed in socially responsible ways, serve the public good, and support the continued value of human geographic insight in an AI-augmented future.

Autonomous GI↗
DOE OSTI2020

SIMS Analysis of d18O and d13C of Carbonate Cements in Shale & Mudstone. Final report

This project has had two primary goals: 1) improving new technology for in situ microanalysis of stable isotope ratios by SIMS (secondary ion mass spectrometry) and 2) evaluating the importance of in situ analysis for studies of carbonate cements within shales of the Bakken Petroleum System. The systematic relations of stable isotope ratios provide an important tool to help resolve critical questions in geology. Stable isotope analysis of carbonate cements in shale constrain many topics of interest to DOE including: CO2 sequestration, climate change, and the genesis and quality of rock reservoirs for petroleum, natural gas, and water. However, this evidence is often preserved as fine-scale zonation, which is homogenized by conventional bulk analysis of powders. Recently, analysis of ultra-small spots in polished samples at the University of Wisconsin WiscSIMS Lab. has documented stable isotope zoning in carbonates and other diagenetic cements at smaller scales than previously possible. We have made detailed studies of oxygen and carbon isotope ratios in diagenetic cements from shales of the Bakken Formation from the Williston basin and elsewhere. The Bakken contains both reservoir and source rocks for petroleum. Hydrofracturing has greatly enhanced production of oil in these tight reservoirs. The sediments contain zoned carbonate cements with growth textures that record multiple events. The growth of carbonate (dolomite) cements has been proposed to control reservoir quality, but previous stable isotope studies of homogenized powders could not resolve individual generations of cement and this proposal remains untested. Our better characterization of the multiple growth zones in these carbonates will aid in understanding the genesis of these tight reservoirs and the production of unconventional oil and gas. This study has also developed SIMS standards for analysis of all compositions of Ca-Mg-Fe carbonate and selected Mn-carbonates and hydromagnesite. We have refined techniques for improved accuracy of SIMS stable isotope analysis, and for sub-1-micron spot sizes. We have established protocols for mapping and correlating sample analyses at micron-scale using QGIS software.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fracture-matrix fluid exchange in oil-bearing unconventional mudstones

The poromechanical properties of unconventional reservoir materials are in large part dictated by their mineralogy. Since these properties govern the response to stress experienced during hydraulic fracturing, fluid production, and fluid injection, they play a central role in the formation of microcracks or bedding delaminations which ultimately dominate mass transport. In this work we study access to the porosity of end member unconventional reservoir materials, where the end members are predominantly dictated by carbonate content. Access to the porosity is quantified using state of the art 3D x-ray computed tomography coupled with physics informed data analytics. Xenon gas, which attenuates x-rays, provides a spatiotemporal map of access to the porosity. The accessible porosity is quantified over a range of net confining stress relevant to the manmade disturbances listed above. These experiments demonstrate that heavily carbonated mudstones are nearly impermeable at the core (~ cm) scale, while carbonate free analogues afford better access to the microstructure. Consistent with previous qualitative 2D radiographs, access to the interior of the clastic mudstones is first observed along planar microcracks, followed by slow penetration into the surrounding matrix. Physics informed data analytics of the 3D tomography measurements presented here show that these microcracks do not permit uniform access to the adjacent rock matrix. In addition, variation of the effective pressure elucidates the mechanisms that govern fracture/matrix fluid exchange. Under conditions consistent with hydrocarbon production fluid accumulates in the immediate vicinity of the nearest microcrack. While there is clear evidence that, as intended, part of this accumulation is from the more distant matrix, fluid is also squeezed out of the microcrack. The fluid build-up at the microcrack indicates that migration out of the rock is hindered by the coupled poroelastic response of the microcrack and adjacent rock matrix. We show that these mechanisms ultimately account for the meager oil recovery factors realized in practice. These insights have implications for making reservoir scale predictions based on core scale observations, and provide a basis for devising new asset development techniques to access more porosity, and enhance fluid extraction. Finally, these findings shed light on key features and mechanisms that govern shale storage capacity, with relevance to other important industrial processes, such as geologic CO 2 storage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Individual Tree Mortality in the Sierra Nevada Using Lidar and Multispectral Reflectance Data

Widespread tree mortality events occur during periods of severe drought in temperate conifer forests and are expected to become more frequent in many areas due to climate change. Improved mapping of individual tree mortality is needed to identify risk factors and design effective conservation strategies. In this study, we used National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) lidar and multispectral reflectance airborne observations to map individual tree mortality over a 160 km 2 area during and after the 2012–2016 drought for two sites in California's Sierra National Forest. We used NEON lidar to derive tree locations and crown perimeters and multispectral data to map tree mortality for more than 1 million trees. We found that 25.4% of the trees in our study area died between 2013 and 2017, with considerably higher mortality at the lower-elevation Soaproot Saddle site. Between 2017 and 2019, an additional 2.0%–2.8% of the trees died each year. Two wildfires in 2020 and 2021 increased tree mortality within burned area perimeters by 49%–89% between 2019 and 2021. Consistent with previous work, we found that tree mortality risk increased as a function of tree height. Tree mortality was positively associated with distance from rivers, trees per hectare, and decreasing slope at the lower elevation site. In contrast, increasing slope was positively associated with tree mortality at the higher elevation site. Our approach and dataset provide a means to study the combined effects of drought and wildfire on tree mortality and may improve projections of forest resilience under a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Calibration of NMR porosity to estimate permeability in carbonate reservoirs

Considering the performance of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) stored in geologic reservoirs requires some knowledge of the subsurface heterogeneity, where the most reliable data is extracted from wellbore measurements. This benefit is especially true for carbonate reservoirs were reactions between supercritical CO 2 , the reservoir brine, and carbonate minerals create new storage capacity and enhanced permeability. Techniques like NMR well logging hold promise for estimating subsurface permeability, because the total porosity and pore size can be calculated from response of 1 H NMR signal. Resulting depth profiles of porosity and permeability from downhole logs are useful input for reservoir simulations and can be used to design injection protocols and estimate storage capacity. We conducted a detailed characterization study to quantify the NMR response to matrix pore space, the connectivity to larger vugs and fractures, and the resulting permeability of core samples from distinct carbonate formations. The cores used in study span 5 orders in permeability, 4 orders in mean T 2 , and 2%–42% in porosity. The goal of the study was to use independent measures of pore volumes, surface relaxivity, fluid-accessible surface areas, and permeability to develop carbonate permeability models. It was not possible to develop a single model that reproduced permeability for different carbonate formations, because phenomena specific to the reservoirs could not be extracted even with the state-of-the-art characterization techniques used in this study. Estimates of permeability require calibration. Best calculations for a given formation were achieved by using a simple form of the Kozeny equation (Eq. 6): κ=Α’θ 3*n , and calibrating A’ and n with laboratory measurements made on the formation cores. Empirical calibrations can then be used to map the vertical heterogeneity of the storage complex to better understand the physical movement CO 2 and brine in the subsurface and the positive feedback between mineral dissolution and the development of flow pathways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Monitoring CO 2 Storage at Cranfield, Mississippi with Time-Lapse Offset VSP – Using Integration and Modeling to Reduce Uncertainty

A time-lapse Offset Vertical Seismic Profile (OVSP) data set was acquired as part of a subsurface monitoring program for geologic sequestration of CO 2 . The storage site at Cranfield, near Natchez, Mississippi, is part of a detailed area study (DAS) site for geologic carbon sequestration operated by the U.S. Dept. of Energy’s Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB). The DAS site includes three boreholes, an injection well and two monitoring wells. The project team selected the DAS site to examine CO 2 sequestration multiphase fluid flow and pressure at the interwell scale in a brine reservoir. The time-lapse (TL) OVSP was part of an integrated monitoring program that included well logs, crosswell seismic, electrical resistance tomography and 4D surface seismic. The goals of the OVSP were to detect the CO 2 induced change in seismic response, give information about the spatial distribution of CO 2 near the injection well and to help tie the high-resolution borehole monitoring to the 4D surface data. The VSP data were acquired in well CFU 31-F1, which is the ~3200 m deep CO 2 injection well at the DAS site. A preinjection survey was recorded in late 2009 with injection beginning in December 2009, and a post injection survey was conducted in Nov 2010 following injection of about 250 kT of CO 2 . The sensor array for both surveys was a 50-level, 3-component, Sercel MaxiWave system with 15 m (49 ft) spacing between levels. The source for both surveys was an accelerated weight drop, with different source trucks used for the two surveys. Consistent time-lapse processing was applied to both data sets. Time-lapse processing generated difference corridor stacks to investigate CO 2 induced reflection amplitude changes from each source point. Corridor stacks were used for amplitude analysis to maximize the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) for each shot point. Spatial variation in reflectivity (used to ‘map’ the plume) was similar in magnitude to the corridor stacks but, due to relatively lower S/N, the results were less consistent and more sensitive to processing and therefore are not presented. We examined the overall time-lapse repeatability of the OVSP data using three methods, the NRMS and Predictability (Pred) measures of Kragh and Christie (2002) and the signal-to-distortion ratio (SDR) method of Cantillo (2011). Because time-lapse noise was comparable to the observed change, multiple methods were used to analyze data reliability. The reflections from the top and base reservoir were identified on the corridor stacks by correlation with a synthetic response generated from the well logs. A consistent change in the corridor stack amplitudes from pre- to post-CO 2 injection was found for both the top and base reservoir reflections on all ten shot locations analyzed. In addition to the well-log synthetic response, a finite-difference elastic wave propagation model was built based on rock/fluid properties obtained from well logs, with CO 2 induced changes guided by time-lapse crosswell seismic tomography (Ajo-Franklin, et al., 2013) acquired at the DAS site. Time-lapse seismic tomography indicated that two reservoir zones were affected by the flood. The modeling established that interpretation of the VSP trough and peak event amplitudes as reflectivity from the top and bottom of reservoir is appropriate even with possible tuning effects. Importantly, this top/base change gives confidence in an interpretation that these changes arise from within the reservoir, not from bounding lithology. The modeled time-lapse change and the observed field data change from 10 shotpoints are in agreement for both magnitude and polarity of amplitude change for top and base of reservoir. Therefore, we conclude the stored CO 2 has been successfully detected and, furthermore, the observed seismic reflection change can be applied to Cranfield’s 4D surface seismic for spatially delineating the CO 2 /brine interface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Rotation-Enabled 7-Degree of Freedom Seismometer for Geothermal Resource Development. Phase 1 Final Report

Under this Department of Energy (DOE) grant, A-Tech Corporation d.b.a. Applied Technology Associates (ATA), seeks to develop a seven-degree-of-freedom (7-DOF) seismic measurement tool for high-temperature geothermal applications. The Rotational-Enabled 7-DOF Seismometer includes a conventional tri-axial accelerometer, a conventional pressure sensor or hydrophone, and a tri-axial rotational sensor. The rotational sensing capability is novel, based upon ATA's innovative research in rotational sensing technologies. The geothermal industry requires tools for high-precision seismic monitoring of crack formation associated with Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) stimulation activity. Currently, microseismic monitoring is conducted by deploying many seismic tools at different depth levels along a 'string' within drilled observation wells. Costs per string can be hundreds of thousands of dollars. Processing data from the spatial arrays of linear seismometers allows back-projection of seismic wave states. In contrast, a Rotational-Enabled 7-DOF Seismometer would simultaneously measure p-wave velocity, s-wave velocity, and incident seismic wave direction all from a single point measurement. In addition, the Rotational-Enabled 7-DOF Seismometer will, by its nature, separate p- and s-waves into different data streams, simplifying signal processing and facilitating analysis of seismic source signatures and geological characterization. By adding measurements of three additional degrees-of-freedom at each level and leveraging the information from this new seismic observable, it is likely that an equally accurate picture of subsurface seismic activity could be garnered with fewer levels per hole. The key cost savings would come from better siting of the well due to increased information content and a decrease in the number of confirmation wells drilled, also due to the increase in information per well. Improved seismic tools may also increase knowledge, understanding, and confidence, thus removing some current blocks to feasibility and significantly increasing access to potential geothermal sites. During the Phase 1 effort summarized in this final report, the ATA Team modeled and built two TRL 3 proof-of-concept test units for two competing rotational sensor technologies. The two competing technologies were based on ATA's angular rate and angular displacement measurement technologies; Angular rate: ATA's Magnetohydrodynamic Angular Rate Sensor (Seismic MHD); and Angular displacement: ATA's Low Frequency Improved Torsional Seismometer (LFITS). In order to down-select between these two technologies and formulate a go / no go decision, the ATA Team analyzed and traded scientific performance requirements and market constraints against sensor characteristics and components, acquiring field data where possible to validate the approach and publishing results from these studies of rotational technology capability. Based on the results of Phase 1, the ATA Team finds that the Seismic MHD (SMHD) technology is the best choice for enabling rotational seismometry and significant technical potential exists for micro-seismic monitoring using a downhole 7-DOF device based on the SMHD. Recent technical papers and field data confirm the potential of rotational sensing for seismic mapping, increasing confidence that cost-reduction benefits are achievable for EGS. However, the market for geothermal rotational sensing is small and undeveloped. As a result, this report recommends modifying the Phase 2 plan to focus on prototype development aimed at partnering with early adopters within the geothermal industry and the scientific research community. The highest public benefit will come from development and deployment of a science-grade SMHD rotational seismometer engineered for geothermal downhole conditions and an integrated test tool for downhole measurements at active geothermal test sites.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

University of Hawai‘i, Shallow Geothermal Resources: Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (Final Report)

Scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have teamed up with the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa (UH Manoa) through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project to evaluate the technological and market feasibility of shallow geothermal heat exchanger (GHE) technology. UH requested this analysis to evaluate opportunities in building cooling, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction applications in Hawai‘i. UH has an abundance of geologic and geothermal data and is looking to the national labs’ expertise to execute this analysis. UH is also interested in investigating policy, regulatory, and business conditions advantageous for implementation of a pilot project and more broad deployment of this technology in Hawai‘i. In many locations around the world, the demands for heating and cooling are roughly balanced over the course of the year, so GHEs do not cause significant long-term changes in subsurface temperature. This is not the case in Hawai’i, where the demand for heating is very small, meaning that, over time, GHEs will add heat to the subsurface. If temperatures increase significantly, GHE systems will not work as designed. Regional groundwater flow has the potential to sweep heated water away from boreholes, thereby maintaining the functionality of the GHE system. Significant regional groundwater flow requires two things: a sufficiently large driving hydraulic head gradient (usually closely related to surface topography), and sufficient porosity and permeability to enable groundwater to flow in large enough quantities to enable near-borehole temperatures to be maintained at ambient values. Hawai‘i’s volcanic terrain offers ample surface topographic variation. The lava itself shows an extremely large range of porosity and permeability, so sites with large enough values of these properties must be selected. Numerical modeling of coupled groundwater and heat flow can be used to determine how large is large enough. Primarily, closed-loop systems have been investigated. Other options considered are open-loop systems and using cool seawater as the chilling source. Project work investigated the feasibility of GHE technology at two scales. At the island scale, GIS layers of various attributes relevant for GHE were combined to develop an overall favorability map for employing GHE in Hawai‘i. At the local scale, a hydrogeologic model for the subsurface component of a closed-loop system was developed for the Stan Sheriff Center at the UH Manoa campus. This site is considered promising because the rock below and immediately downgradient of the borefield is highly permeable, consisting of a subsurface karst system (limestone containing high-permeability open channels), which is underlain by a thick, high-permeability fractured basalt. Moreover, the site is near the base of the Ko‘olau Range, providing a large hydraulic head gradient. Thus, groundwater flow through the site is expected to be large, enabling efficient removal of heated groundwater. A full-GHE-system model of the site was also developed, with a simplified representation of the subsurface, in which groundwater flow is not considered and heat transfer is purely by conduction. Using the building cooling load data provided by UH, simulation results show that with groundwater flow present, a GHE can operate successfully for at least 10 years, but with no groundwater flow, the subsurface begins to heat up after only one year of operation, making the GHE unviable within 2-6 years. The team also developed a techno-economic model for this site to compare the cost of cooling using a GHE system with the costs of operating the current air-conditioning system. The GHE system is advantageous economically if favorable tax incentives and interest rates can be obtained.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2010

THE WIDE-FIELD INFRARED SURVEY EXPLORER (WISE): MISSION DESCRIPTION AND INITIAL ON-ORBIT PERFORMANCE

The all sky surveys done by the Palomar Observatory Schmidt, the European Southern Observatory Schmidt, and the United Kingdom Schmidt, the InfraRed Astronomical Satellite, and the Two Micron All Sky Survey have proven to be extremely useful tools for astronomy with value that lasts for decades. The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) is mapping the whole sky following its launch on 2009 December 14. WISE began surveying the sky on 2010 January 14 and completed its first full coverage of the sky on July 17. The survey will continue to cover the sky a second time until the cryogen is exhausted (anticipated in 2010 November). WISE is achieving 5{sigma} point source sensitivities better than 0.08, 0.11, 1, and 6 mJy in unconfused regions on the ecliptic in bands centered at wavelengths of 3.4, 4.6, 12, and 22 {mu}m. Sensitivity improves toward the ecliptic poles due to denser coverage and lower zodiacal background. The angular resolution is 6.''1, 6.''4, 6.''5, and 12.''0 at 3.4, 4.6, 12, and 22 {mu}m, and the astrometric precision for high signal-to-noise sources is better than 0.''15.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transforming Uinta Basin Earth Materials for Advanced Products (TUBE-MAP)

The objectives of this project were to quantify, assess, and plan to enable the transformation of Uinta Basin earth resources, such as coal, oil shale, resin, rare earth elements, and critical minerals into high value metal, mineral, and carbon-based products. The specific major goals were 1) basinal assessments and initial planning (Task 2), 2) basinal assessment for waste stream reuse with associated plan development (Task 3), 3) basinal strategies development for infrastructure, industries, and business (Task 4), 4) technology assessment, development, and field-testing plan (Task 5), 5) technology innovation center plan (Task 6), and 6) stakeholder outreach and education plan (Task 7).

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cretaceous sequence stratigraphy of the northern Baltimore Canyon Trough: Implications for basin evolution and carbon storage

We evaluate the Cretaceous stratigraphy and carbon sequestration potential of the northern Baltimore Canyon Trough (NBCT) using >10,000 km of multi-channel seismic profiles integrated with geophysical logs, biostratigraphy, and lithology from 29 offshore wells. We identify and map six sequences resolved primarily at the stage level. Accommodation was dominated by thermal and non-thermal subsidence, though sequence boundaries correlate with regional and global sea-level changes, and the record is modified by igneous intrusion, active faulting, and changes in sediment supply and sources. Our stratigraphic maps illustrate a primary southern (central Appalachian) Early Cretaceous source that migrated northward during the Aptian and Albian. During the Cenomanian, sedimentation rates in the NBCT increased and depocenters shifted northward and landward. We show that deposition occurred in three phases: (1) earlier Cretaceous paleoenvironments were primarily terrestrial indicated by variable amplitude, chaotic seismic facies, serrated gamma logs, and heterolithic sandstones and mudstones with terrestrial microfossils; (2) the Albian to Cenomanian was dominated by deltaic paleoenvironments indicated by blocky, funnel-shaped, gamma-ray logs and clinoforms characterized by continuous high-amplitude seismic reflections with well-defined terminations; and (3) the Cenomanian and younger was marine shelf, inferred from mudstoneprone lithologies, peak gamma-ray values in well logs, and foraminiferal evidence. Long-term transgression and maximum water depths at the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary correlative with Ocean Anoxic Event 2 were followed by a regression and relative sea-level fall. We show that porous and permeable sandstones of three Aptian to Cenomanian highstand systems tracts are high-volume reservoirs for supercritical CO 2 storage that are confined by overlying deep water mudstones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Movement Models to Predict Low‐Altitude Flight of Soaring Birds Using Look‐Ahead Environmental Factors

Advances in fine-scale movement modeling of soaring birds can aid efforts to understand and resolve the impacts of anthropogenic activities on such birds. Soaring birds often rely on underlying terrain and low-altitude updrafts to govern their flights at rotor-swept altitudes (≤ 200 m above ground level), which puts them at risk of collision with wind turbines. We developed a data-driven Markov model at 1-s resolution that predicts the fine-scale flight behavior of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) as a function of ecological covariates at the current location as well as those within an eagle's line of sight. We only considered ecological covariates that are readily available in real-time (ground elevation and wind conditions). Latent factors (age, sex, species, behavioral intent, migratory status) were intentionally left out of the model. We calibrated the model using golden eagle telemetry data collected in two different ecoregions of the United States. Given a starting location, the calibrated model simulates multiple stochastic 3D paths to produce a time-explicit and spatially explicit risk map of turbine collisions. We discovered an empirical relation between the rate of change of heading and the orographic updraft conditions within an eagle's line of sight. Our model performed most effectively when predicting predominantly-soaring flights at rotor-swept altitudes during wind conditions in which turbines are likely to be operational. The calibrated model could be used in concert with automated eagle detection and turbine curtailment technologies. Specifically, once an eagle is detected by those systems, our model could then provide accurate predictions of turbines the eagle is likely to interact with in the near term.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Empirical Dynamic Modeling Reveals Complexity of Methane Fluxes in a Temperate Salt Marsh

Abstract Methane dynamics within salt marshes are complex because vegetation types, temperature, oscillating water levels, and changes in salinity and redox conditions influence CH 4 production, consumption, oxidation, and emissions. These non‐linear and complex interactions among variables affect the traditionally expected functional relationships and present challenges for interpreting and developing process‐based models. We employed empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and convergent cross mapping (CCM) as a novel approach for characterizing seasonal/multiday and diurnal CH 4 dynamics by inferring causal variables, lags, and interconnections among multiple biophysical variables within a temperate salt marsh using 5 years of eddy covariance data. EDM/CCM is a nonparametric approach capable of quantifying the coupling between variables while determining time scales where variable interactions are the most relevant. We found that gross primary productivity, tidal creek dissolved oxygen, and temperature were important for seasonal/multiday dynamics (rho = 0.73–0.80), while water level was most important for diurnal dynamics during both the growing and dormancy phenoperiods (rho = 0.72 and 0.56, respectively). Lags for the top‐ranked variables (i.e., gross primary productivity, dissolved oxygen, temperature, water level) occurred between 1 and 5 weeks at the seasonal scale and 1–24 hr at the diurnal scale. The EDM had high prediction capabilities for intra‐/inter‐seasonal patterns and annual CH 4 sums but had limitations in representing large, infrequent fluxes. Results highlight the importance of non‐linearity, drivers, lag times, and interconnections among multiple biophysical variables that regulate CH 4 fluxes in tidal wetlands. This research introduces a novel approach to examining CH 4 fluxes, which will aid in evaluating current paradigms in wetlands and other ecosystems.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2014

The Potosi Reservoir Model 2013c, Property Modeling Update

As part of a larger project co-funded by the United States Department of Energy (US DOE) to evaluate the potential of formations within the Cambro-Ordovician strata above the Mt. Simon as potential targets for carbon sequestration in the Illinois and Michigan Basins, the Illinois Clean Coal Institute (ICCI) requested Schlumberger to evaluate the potential injectivity and carbon dioxide (CO2) plume size of the Cambrian Potosi Formation. The evaluation of this formation was accomplished using wireline data, core data, pressure data, and seismic data from this project as well as two other separately funded projects: the US DOE-funded Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP) being conducted by the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium (MGSC) in Macon County, Illinois, and the Illinois Industrial Carbon Capture and Sequestration (ICCS) project funded through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. In 2010, technical performance evaluations on the Cambrian Potosi Formation were performed through reservoir modeling. The data included formation tops from mud logs, well logs from the Verification Well #1 (VW1) and the Injection Well (CCS1), structural and stratigraphic formation from three dimensional (3D) seismic data, and field data from several waste water injection wells for Potosi Formation. The intention was for 2.2 million tons per annum (2 million tonnes per annum [MTPA]) of CO2 to be injected for 20 years. In the Task Error! Reference source not found., the 2010 Potosi heterogeneous model (referred to as the "Potosi Dynamic Model 2010") was re-run using a new injection scenario of 3.5 million tons per annum (3.2 MTPA) for 30 years. The extent of the Potosi Dynamic Model 2010, however, appeared too small for the new injection target. The models size was insufficient to accommodate the evolution of the plume. The new model, Potosi Dynamic Model 2013a, was built by extending the Potosi Dynamic Model 2010 grid to 30 by 30 mi (48 by 48 km), while preserving all property modeling workflows and layering. This model was retained as the base case. In the preceding Task [1], the Potosi reservoir model was updated to take into account the new data from the Verification Well #2 (VW2) which was drilled in 2012. The porosity and permeability modeling was revised to take into account the log data from the new well. Revisions of the 2010 modeling assumptions were also done on relative permeability, capillary pressures, formation water salinity, and the maximum allowable well bottomhole pressure. Dynamic simulations were run using the injection target of 3.5 million tons per annum (3.2 MTPA) for 30 years. This dynamic model was named Potosi Dynamic Model 2013b. In this Task, a new property modeling workflow was applied, where seismic inversion data guided the porosity mapping and geobody extraction. The static reservoir model was fully guided by PorosityCube interpretations and derivations coupled with petrophysical logs from three wells. The two main assumptions are: porosity features in the PorosityCube that correlate with lost circulation zones represent vugular zones, and that these vugular zones are laterally continuous. Extrapolation was done carefully to populate the vugular facies and their corresponding properties outside the seismic footprint up to the boundary of the 30 by 30 mi (48 by 48 km) model. Dynamic simulations were also run using the injection target of 3.5 million tons per annum (3.2 MTPA) for 30 years. This new dynamic model was named Potosi Dynamic Model 2013c. Reservoir simulation with the latest model gives a cumulative injection of 43 million tons (39 MT) in 30 years with a single well, which corresponds to 40% of the injection target. The injection rate is approx. 3.2 MTPA in the first six months as the well is injecting into the surrounding vugs, and declines rapidly to 1.8 million tons per annum (1.6 MTPA) in year 3 once the surrounding vugs are full and the CO2 start to reach the matrix. After, the injection rate declines gradually to 1.2 million tons per annum (1.1 MTPA) in year 18 and stays constant. This implies that a minimum of three (3) wells could be required in the Potosi to reach the injection target. The injectivity evaluated in this Task was higher compared to the preceding Task, since the current facies modeling (guided by the porosity map from the seismic inversion) indicated a higher density of vugs within the vugular zones. 5 As the CO2 follows the paths where vugs interconnection exists, a reasonably large and irregular plume extent was created. After 30 years of injection, the plume extends 13.7 mi (22 km) in E-W and 9.7 mi (16 km) in N-S directions. After injection finishes, the plume continues to migrate laterally, mainly driven by the remaining pressure gradient. After 60 years post-injection, the plume extends 14.2 mi (22.8 km) in E-W and 10 mi (16 km) in N-S directions, and remains constant as the remaining pressure gradient has become very low. Should the targeted cumulative injection of 106 million tons (96 MT) be achieved; a much larger plume extent could be expected. The increase of reservoir pressure at the end of injection is approximately 1,200 psia (8,274 kPa) around the injector and gradually decreases away from the well. The reservoir pressure increase is less than 10 psia (69 kPa) beyond 14 mi (23 km) away from injector. Should the targeted cumulative injection of 106 million tons (96 MT) be achieved; a much larger areal pressure increase could be expected. The reservoir pressure declines rapidly during the first 30 years post injection and the initial reservoir pressure is nearly restored after 100 years post-injection. The present evaluation is mainly associated with uncertainty on the vugs permeability and interconnectivity. The use of porosity mapping from seismic inversion might have reduced the uncertainty on the lateral vugs body distributions. However, major uncertainties on the Potosi vugs permeability remains. Therefore, injection test and pressure interference test among the wells could be considered to evaluate the local vugs permeability, extent, and interconnectivity. Facies modeling within the Potosi has yet to be thoroughly addressed. The carbonates during the time of deposition are believed to be regionally extensive. However, it may be worth delineating the reservoir with other regional wells or modern day analogues to understand the extent of the Potosi. More specifically, the model could incorporate lateral changes or trends if deemed necessary to represent facies transition. Data acquisitions to characterize the fracture pressure gradient, the formation water properties, the relative permeability, and the capillary pressure could also be considered in order to allow a more rigorous evaluation of the Potosi storage performance. A simulation using several injectors could also be considered to determine the required number of wells and appropriate spacing to achieve the injection target while taking into account the pressure interference.

Adushita, Yasmin↗
DOE OSTI2011

X-RAY STAR CLUSTERS IN THE CARINA COMPLEX

The distribution of young stars found in the Chandra Carina Complex Project (CCCP) is examined for clustering structure. X-ray surveys are advantageous for identifying young stellar populations compared to optical and infrared surveys in suffering less contamination from nebular emission and Galactic field stars. The analysis is based on smoothed maps of a spatially complete subsample of {approx}3000 brighter X-ray sources classified as Carina members and {approx}10,000 stars from the full CCCP sample. The principal known clusters are recovered, and some additional smaller groups are identified. No rich embedded clusters are present, although a number of sparse groups are found. The CCCP reveals considerable complexity in clustering properties. The Trumpler 14 and 15 clusters have rich stellar populations in unimodal, centrally concentrated structures several parsecs across. Non-spherical internal structure is seen, and large-scale low surface density distributions surround these rich clusters. Trumpler 16, in contrast, is comprised of several smaller clusters within a circular boundary. Collinder 228 is a third type of cluster which extends over tens of parsecs with many sparse compact groups likely arising from triggered star formation processes. A widely dispersed, but highly populous, distribution of X-ray stars across the {approx}50 pc CCCP mosaic supports a model of past generations of star formation in the region. Collinder 234, a group of massive stars without an associated cluster of pre-main-sequence stars, may be part of this dispersed population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of an ERT‐Based Framework for Bentonite Buffers Monitoring From Laboratory Tests: 2. Quantitative Moisture Dynamics Estimation Model

Abstract The long‐term containment of high‐level radioactive waste in geological disposal repositories relies on Engineered Barrier Systems (EBS), with bentonite clay emerging as a candidate material due to its unique properties. Understanding moisture dynamics within bentonite buffers is crucial for EBS performance, as it directly influences the material's swelling capacity, thermal and hydraulic conductivity, mechanical properties, and long‐term evolution under complex thermal‐hydrological‐mechanical (THM) processes. This study develops an advanced Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT)‐based framework to quantitatively monitor moisture dynamics under THM conditions. Our framework extends the Waxman‐Smits model to incorporate the coupled effects of temperature, water content, fluid chemistry, and mechanical changes on bentonite's electrical properties. Utilizing HotBENT‐Lab data from our companion paper, which includes electrical conductivity, CT density, and thermocouple measurements, this study offers a novel methodological framework bridging different scales of the model. Our results show that the extended model can estimate water content from ERT data, capturing spatial and temporal variations in moisture distribution within bentonite columns. However, the model tends to overestimate water content compared to CT density‐derived measurements. We address this discrepancy by incorporating a simplified swelling effect model, which improves agreement between ERT and CT density‐based water content estimates. We also discuss model limitations, including simplified treatment of swelling and micropore effects, and propose a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, addressing challenges such as parameter scalability, field validation methods, and integration of diverse data sources. This ERT‐based framework can potentially advance real‐world moisture monitoring of bentonite‐based EBS in nuclear waste repositories. Plain Language Summary Safely containing high‐level radioactive waste depends on barriers made from materials like bentonite clay, which is effective because it swells and seals in the waste. To ensure these barriers work well over time, it's important to understand how moisture moves through the clay. Our study developed a new method using ERT to monitor moisture levels in bentonite under conditions that mimic those in actual storage sites, including changes in temperature, water content, and mechanical stress. This study improved an existing model to better account for how these factors affect the clay, allowing us to create more accurate moisture maps. Initially, the proposed model overestimated the amount of water in the clay, but its accuracy was improved by factoring in how the clay swells when wet. This study also identified some limitations of the model and suggested ways to adapt it for use in real‐world waste storage sites. This new approach could lead to better monitoring and safety checks for nuclear waste storage systems, helping to ensure long‐term containment. Key Points This work develops an ERT‐based framework extending the Waxman‐Smits model to monitor bentonite moisture dynamics during coupled THM processes The extended model accurately estimates water content from Electrical Resistivity Tomography data, incorporating swelling effects to improve precision This work proposes a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, advancing EBS monitoring in nuclear waste repositories

Chen, Hang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shallow Geothermal Resources for Cooling Applications at the University of Hawai‘i

Scientists at Berkeley Lab have teamed up with The University of Hawai‘i at Manoa (UH Manoa) through the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP) to evaluate the technological and market feasibility of shallow geothermal heat exchanger (GHE) technology for building cooling, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction applications in Hawai’i. The team is assessing the data necessary to model the feasibility of deploying this technology, the actual models that will be used, and what hurdles need to be overcome to install a demonstration case. UH has an abundance of geologic and geothermal data and is looking to the national labs’ expertise to execute this analysis. UH is also interested in investigating policy, regulatory, and business conditions advantageous for implementation of a pilot project, and more broad deployment of this technology in Hawai‘i. In many locations around the world, the demands for heating and cooling are roughly balanced over the course of the year, so GHEs do not cause significant long-term changes in subsurface temperature. This is not the case in Hawai’i, where the demand for heating is very small, meaning that over time, GHEs will add heat to the subsurface. If temperatures increase significantly, GHE systems will not work as designed. Regional groundwater flow has the potential to sweep heated water away from boreholes, thereby maintaining the functionality of the GHE system. Significant regional groundwater flow requires two things: a sufficiently large driving hydraulic head gradient (usually closely related to surface topography), and sufficient porosity and permeability to enable groundwater to flow in large enough quantities to enable near-borehole temperatures to be maintained at ambient values. Hawai‘i’s volcanic terrain offers ample surface topographic variation. The lava itself shows an extremely large range of porosity and permeability, making it crucial to select sites with large enough values of these properties. Numerical modeling of coupled groundwater and heat flow can be used to determine how large is large enough. Both closed-loop and open-loop systems are being investigated. Another option being considered is using cool seawater as the source of chill. Currently work is progressing on two fronts. A hydrogeologic model for a closed-loop system is being developed for the Stan Sheriff Center at the UH Manoa campus, where a subsurface karst system immediately downgradient of the borefield may provide efficient removal of heated groundwater. The team will also develop a technoeconomic model for this site to compare the cost of cooling using a GHE system with the costs of operating the current air conditioning system. At the state scale, geographic information system (GIS) layers of various attributes relevant for GHE are being combined to develop an overall favorability map for employing GHE in Hawai‘i.

Doughty, C↗