Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “High Performance Building Systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 559 records · Page 31

Module-Fluidics: Building Blocks for Spatio-Temporal Microenvironment Control

Generating the desired solute concentration signal in micro-environments is vital to many applications ranging from micromixing to analyzing cellular response to a dynamic microenvironment. We propose a new modular design to generate targeted temporally varying concentration signals in microfluidic systems while minimizing perturbations to the flow field. The modularized design, here referred to as module-fluidics, similar in principle to interlocking toy bricks, is constructed from a combination of two building blocks and allows one to achieve versatility and flexibility in dynamically controlling input concentration. The building blocks are an oscillator and an integrator, and their combination enables the creation of controlled and complex concentration signals, with different user-defined time-scales. We show two basic connection patterns, in-series and in-parallel, to test the generation, integration, sampling and superposition of temporally-varying signals. All such signals can be fully characterized by analytic functions, in analogy with electric circuits, and allow one to perform design and optimization before fabrication. Such modularization offers a versatile and promising platform that allows one to create highly customizable time-dependent concentration inputs which can be targeted to the specific application of interest.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Enhancing Building Energy Efficiency through Advanced Sizing and Dispatch Methods for Energy Storage

Energy storage and electrification of buildings hold great potential for future decarbonization. However, there are several technical and economic barriers that prevent large-scale adoption and integration of energy storage in buildings. These barriers include integration with building control systems, high capital costs, and the necessity to identify and quantify value streams for different stakeholders. To overcome these obstacles, it is crucial to develop advanced sizing and dispatch methods to assist planning and operational decision-making for integrating energy storage in buildings. This work develops simple and flexible optimal sizing and dispatch framework for thermal energy storage (TES) and battery energy storage (BES) systems in large-scale office building. The optimal sizes of TES, BES, as well as other building assets are determined in a joint manner instead of sequentially to avoid sub-optimal solutions. The interaction between the sizing at the planning stage and hourly or sub-hourly dispatch at the operating stage is explicitly modeled. The solution is determined considering both capital costs in optimal sizing and operational benefits in optimal dispatch. Comprehensive assessments are performed using simulation studies to quantify potential energy, economic, and emission benefits by different utility tariffs and climate locations, to improve our understanding of the techno-economic performance of different TES and BES systems, and to identify barriers for adopting energy storage for buildings. Finally, the proposed framework will provide guidance to a broad range of stakeholders to properly design energy storage in buildings and maximizes potential benefits, thereby advancing affordable building energy storage deployment and helping us accelerating the transition towards a cleaner and more equitable energy economy.

Yu, Mingyung↗

Pulsed-Power Innovations for Next-Generation, High-Current Drivers

There are proposals to build larger high-current drivers to be used for high-energy-density physics (HEDP), inertial confinement fusion (ICF), radiation effects testing, and basic science. Drivers significantly larger than the Z Machine at Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA, encounter increasing difficulties in water power flow, insulator performance, and vacuum power flow. The physics requirements of imploding loads limit a designer’s flexibility in choosing machine parameters, such as current rise time, driving impedance, and total inductance. This article enumerates these physics constraints and shows how they impact driver design. Here, we conclude that advances in pulsed-power capabilities are needed to control risk and to build a cost-effective driver at peak currents of ~60 MA.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

MELCOR Accident Progression and Source Term Demonstration Calculations for a Heat Pipe Reactor

MELCOR is an integrated thermal hydraulics, accident progression, and source term code for reactor safety analysis that has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) since the early 1980s. Though MELCOR originated as a light water reactor (LWR) code, development and modernization efforts have expanded its application scope to includ e non-LWR reactor concepts. Current MELCOR development efforts include providing the NRC with the analytical capabilities to support regulatory readiness for licensing non-LWR techno logies under Strategy 2 of the NRC?s near- term Implementation Action Plans. Beginning with the Next Generation Nuclear Project (NGNP), MELCOR has undergone a range of enha ncements to provide analytical capabilities for modeling the spectrum of advanced non-LWR concepts. This report describes the generic plant model developed to demonstrate MELCOR capabilities to perform heat pipe reactor (HPR) safety evaluations. The generic plant mode l is based on a publicly-available Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Megapower design as modified in the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Design A description. For plant aspects (e.g., reactor building size and leak rate) that are not described in the LANL and INL references , the analysts made assumptions needed to construct a MELCOR full-plant model. The HP R uses high assay, low-enrichment uranium (HALEU) fuel with steel cladding that uses heat pipes to transfer heat to a secondary Brayton air cycle. The core region is surrounded by a stainless-steel shroud, alumina reflector, core barrel and boron carbide neutron shield. The reactor is secured inside a below-grade cavity, with the operating floor located above the cavity. Example calculations are performed to show the plant response and MELCOR capabilities to characterize a range of accident conditions. The accidents selected for evaluation consider a range of degraded and failed modes of operation for key safety functions providing re activity control, the primary and secondary system heat removal, and the effectiveness of th e confinement natural circulation flow into the reactor cavity (i.e., a flow blockage).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

TCF - Sustainable Well Cement for Geothermal, Thermal Recovery, and Carbon Storage wells

Primary cementing is the most important operation performed on a subterranean well. Cement, placed in the annulus between the casing and the formations, serves as a hydraulic seal preventing fluids and gas migrations, protecting steel casing from corrosion, and supporting the well structure. Poor cementing jobs can be directly responsible for wells not reaching their full capacity, casing corrosion, compromised well integrity and, in the worst-case scenarios, well collapse. Geothermal, thermal recovery, and carbon storage wells offer environments that are especially difficult for cements to survive while the required lifespan of these wells can be years. In these wells currently used cements cannot provide durable well integrity, and new solutions are necessary. The necessity of stabilizing the electric grid, increasing its flexibility, and providing energy on demand will further expand the market of durable cement solutions for applications in high-temperature underground reservoir thermal energy storage wells (HT RTES). The design challenges of special cement systems for such wells originate from chemistry limitations of currently used well cements, aggressive environments, temperature and repeated shock conditions associated with them, and very weak formations that are not uncommon in these wells. During the last 70 years the most common systems for thermal-well construction have been Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) (absolute majority of the wells), silica-lime system, and high aluminum cement-containing formulations. The major issues of calcium-silicate hydrates, that form during the hydration of OPC resulting in hardened material, are their poor chemical resistance to acids due to the calcium interactions with acid anions followed by its eventual dissolution, even in mild acids, such as carbonic acid from CO 2 dissolution, and inadequate bonding to the steel causing serious casing corrosion problems (Sugama & Pyatina, 2019). Performance of OPC-based cement may be significantly improved with organic additives; however, those are limited by their temperature stability. An alternative to calcium-silicate cement was developed by BNL and commercialized by Halliburton as ThermaLock TM cement. Calcium-aluminate-phosphate-based chemistry of the material allowed overcoming acid-resistance problems of OPC, especially in CO 2 -rich geothermal environments. In 2012-2015, building upon this experience, BNL developed Thermal Shock Resistant Cement (TSRC) with the support of Geothermal Technology Office (GTO) of DOE. TSRC has high-temperature stable chemistry, superior properties of cement-metal casing bond and corrosion protection (4-times better than currently used OPC-based formulation), significantly outperforms common well-cements in thermal-shock tests, has self-healing properties, and like ThermaLock TM is CO 2 resistant incorporating carbonate ions into stable hydrates (Gill et al., 2012).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Electrochemically Engineered, Highly Energy-Efficient Conversion of Ethane to Ethylene and Hydrogen below 550 °C in a Protonic Ceramic Electrochemical Cell

Ethylene is one of the largest building blocks in the petrochemical industry, mainly produced by steam cracking of ethane derived from naphtha or shale gas at high temperatures (>800 °C). Despite its technical maturity and economic competitiveness, the thermal steam cracking of ethane is highly energy-intensive. In this work, an electrochemically engineered direct conversion process of ethane to produce hydrogen and ethylene using a planar protonic ceramic membrane reactor with a bi-functional three-dimensional catalytic electrode is reported, with a single-pass ethane conversion of 40% and ethylene yield of 26.7% at 550 °C. Compared with the industrial ethane steam cracking, this method saves process energy input by 45.1% and improves process energy efficiency by 50.6%, based on comprehensive process simulation using Aspen Plus software. Further, steam electrolysis treatment under the solid oxide electrolysis cell mode can regenerate the system’s catalytic performance and significantly alleviate catalytic degradation by 74%, demonstrating high techno-economic viability.

bi-functional electrode↗

Development of a Reconstruction Methodology Based on X-Ray Computed Tomography to Generate Realistic 3D Concrete Microstructures in MOSAIC

Despite being passive components, concrete structures represent a major capital investment in nuclear power plants. However, some concrete components are critical for the safety and long-term operation of the reactors: the concrete containment building protects the reactors from external aggression. The concrete biological shield (CBS) contains the radiation exiting the reactor to protect equipment and personnel. Depending on the design, the CBS also has a function for supporting the reactor’s systems. This function needs to be ensured in-service and during accident scenarios. After several decades of use, the CBS is exposed to high-energy irradiation over an extended operation time, exceeding the fluence level currently considered detrimental for the concrete’s structural properties. Such conditions occur at different times depending on the reactor’s operation and design. Nevertheless, from the perspective of subsequent license application, it is mandatory to assess the potential effects of prolonged irradiation on concrete. Unlike steel components, concrete structures are built with local constituents (cement, sand, and coarse aggregates) to avoid prohibitive transportation costs. Thus, concrete performance is determined by the tolerance or the susceptibility of its constituents against any aging mechanism. The tolerance against irradiation of the CBSs may vary greatly among the 56 nuclear power plants and 93 nuclear power reactors that form the current US light-water reactor fleet. Irradiation-induced degradation is mainly a result of amorphization-induced expansions of the silicated minerals present in the aggregates. The neutron irradiation–induced expansion varies from one rock-forming mineral to another: well framework–structured silicates (e.g., quartz and feldspars) exhibit higher swelling than chained (e.g., pyroxene) or isolated silicates (e.g., garnet). Silicates make up nearly 90% of the Earth’s crust. Other common minerals present in construction aggregates are carbonates found, for example, in limestone. Irradiated carbonates exhibit only very minor expansions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Workflow Submit Nodes as a Service on Leadership Class Systems

DOE scientists, today, have access to high performance computing (HPC) facilities with very powerful systems that enable them to execute their computations faster, more efficiently, and at greater scales than ever before. To further their knowledge and produce new discoveries, scientists rely on workflows - sometimes very complex - that provide them with an easy way to automate, reproduce and verify their computations. However, historically, creating workflow submission environments in large HPC facilities has been cumbersome, requires expertise and many man-hours of effort due to the peculiarities, policies, and the restrictions that these systems present. In this paper we discuss the approach a large DOE facility (OLCF) is taking in order to provide containers as a service to its users. This capability is used to create Pegasus workflow management system submit nodes as a service (WSaaS) at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facilities (OLCF), targeting the Summit supercomputer. This deployment builds upon the Kubernetes/Openshift cluster (Slate) that exists within OLCF’s DMZ and its automation triggers. Additionally, we evaluate our approach’s overhead and effort to deploy the solution as compared to previous solutions, such as setting up a Pegasus submission environment on OLCF’s login nodes or submitting jobs remotely via the rvGAHP.

Papadimitriou, George↗

Networks and interfaces as catalysts for polymer materials innovation

Autonomous experimental systems offer a compelling glimpse into a future where closed-loop, iterative cycles—performed by machines and guided by artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML)—play a foundational role in materials research and development. This perspective draws attention to the roles of networks and interfaces—of and between humans and machines—for the purpose of generating knowledge and accelerating innovation. Polymers, a class of materials with massive global impact, present a unique opportunity for the application of informatics and automation to pressing societal challenges. To develop these networks and interfaces in polymer science, the Community Resource for Innovation in Polymer Technology (CRIPT)—a polymer data ecosystem based on novel polymer data model, representation, search, and visualization technologies—is introduced. The ongoing co-design efforts engage stakeholders in industry, academia, and government to uncover rapidly actionable, high-impact opportunities to build networks, bridge interfaces, and catalyze innovation in polymer technology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Microstructure & Mechanical Properties of Scaled Thermally Aged LPBF 316H SS Builds

As part of the US Department of Energy’s Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies program’s mission to accelerate qualification of advanced manufacturing pathways for nuclear applications, laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) 316H stainless steel (SS) has been selected as a model system to develop a rapid code case framework. This effort directly addresses the grand challenges of (1)expanding the limited portfolio of materials currently codified for elevated-temperature nuclear structural service under Section III, Division 5of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers’ Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code; and (2) significantly reducing qualification timelines that traditionally exceed a decade. The strategic importance of LPBF 316H lies in its immediate industrial relevance, existing data foundation from wrought 316H, and alignment with ongoing code case development for LPBF 316L.Prior work revealed accelerated precipitation of deleterious secondary phases and reduced creep ductility in as-printed LPBF 316H. Building on that prior research, FY2025activities focused on establishing an understanding of the key failure mechanisms of crept 316H specimens to aid in code case development and on evaluating stress relief (SR) parameters on the high-temperature performance and thermal aging-induced degradation of tensile and fracture behavior in LPBF316H.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Experimental Evaluation of a High-Performance Cold-Climate Heat Pump Using Tandem Vapor-Injection Compressors

A high-performance cold-climate heat pump (CCHP) was developed and experimentally validated through comprehensive laboratory and field testing. The system utilized two equal-size tandem vapor-injection (VI) compressors with an inter-stage flash tank to improve efficiency and capacity retention under subfreezing conditions. Laboratory testing was conducted on a 3-ton prototype in a controlled environmental chamber equipped with calibrated thermocouples, refrigerant-side mass flow and pressure transducers, and precision airflow measurement for energy balance verification. The prototype achieved heating coefficients of performance (COPs) of 4.4 at 47 °F, 3.1 at 17 °F, and 2.0 at –13 °F, while maintaining 88% of its rated heating capacity at –13°F. These results confirm strong low-temperature performance and indicate the potential for significant reductions in electric resistance backup use. A field prototype was installed and monitored in a residential building in Fairbanks, Alaska, during a heating season. Instrumentation included real-time power, temperature, and refrigerant state measurements to evaluate performance under dynamic outdoor conditions. The heat pump operated reliably down to –30 °F, delivering 75% of its rated heating capacity with a COP of 1.8, while maintaining stable operation, effective defrost control, and indoor comfort without auxiliary heating. The combined laboratory and field results demonstrate that the tandem VI compressor configuration provides a practical and energy-efficient approach for residential heat pumps designed for cold and very cold climate regions.

Hu, Yifeng [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242875185)↗

A Novel Steam Condenser with Loop Thermosyphons and Film-Forming Agents for Improved Heat Transfer Efficiency and Durability

In this DOE/NETL BAA program, Advanced Cooling Technologies, Inc. (ACT), with Suez Water Technologies & Solutions (Suez), developed film-forming amine coatings applied to condenser surfaces that incorporated loop thermosyphons to enhance steam surface condenser performance and efficiency for coal-fired power plants. The condensation phenomenon resulting from these coatings promotes efficient dropwise condensation without additional thermal resistance through the use of film-forming amines (FFA). The loop thermosyphon technology was being developed to supplant current pumped cooling water systems to reduce operations and maintenance issues, reduce energy use, and promote high thermal performance. Both of ACT’s advanced coating and loop thermosyphon technologies were developed for application to wet cooling and indirect dry cooling systems. Internal steam condensation and subsequent heat dissipation complete the thermodynamic power cycle used by power plant cooling systems. The successful 3-year project period delved into understanding the experimental performance gain using film-forming amines applied to flat and tubular condenser surfaces under realistic operating conditions. The performance gain was used to create a technoeconomic analysis to more clearly understand the market value for power plants using FFA coatings to achieve dropwise condensation on condenser surfaces. A tall (50 ft.) loop thermosyphon was designed, fabricated, and tested to optimize the performance characteristics by tuning the working fluid charge and determining the temperature drop across the loop at different heat loads. Commercialization opportunities were explored to transition the loop thermosyphon work into the building HVAC market.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Ushering in the New Age of Laboratories: Smart Labs in Practice; Preprint

Ventilation is the first line of defense against airborne hazards produced during research activities in laboratories. A vital component to maintaining healthy, safe, indoor air quality, laboratory ventilation systems are often victim to ineffective operation, posing a risk to an organization's most important asset - the researchers. Furthermore, system inefficiencies can lead to up to 50% wasted energy. By providing a framework to improve the safety and energy efficiency through optimized ventilation and operations, the Smart Labs Toolkit guides laboratory stakeholders through a straight-forward, holistic approach to achieving a dynamic Smart Labs program. A Smart Labs program employs a combination of physical, administrative, and management techniques to plan, assess, optimize, and manage high-performance laboratories. Grounded in the Smart Labs methodology, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) implemented a successful Smart Labs program to oversee the design, construction, maintenance, and operations of its laboratories. To accomplish this effort, NREL's key stakeholders created an internal partnership to align NREL's existing laboratories with Smart Labs principles and solidify organizational roles for the safe and efficient operation of laboratory assets. The program provides the groundwork for decarbonization strategies centered around building operation. This paper outlines best practices employed by NREL to develop a cross-cutting Smart Labs team, garner managerial support, and effectively communicate of goals around safety and energy. Strategies include specific Smart Labs best practices, such as implementing a Laboratory Ventilation Risk Assessment - a systematic process for identifying risk due to airborne hazards and informing dynamic, demand-based ventilation to optimize safety and efficiency.

decarbonization↗

Conceptual design of HTS magnets for fusion nuclear science facility

Second-generation high temperature superconductors (HTS) are available for producing >20 T at the magnet bore compared to 13–16 T for lower temperature superconducting (LTS) toroidal field magnets proposed in recent fusion energy systems studies (FESS) of Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF). HTS may enable higher fusion power density and smaller device size. High current density cables of multi-layered REBCO tapes have achieved >10 kA at 4–20 K operation in short sample tests for fusion. High current density cables are required for engineering design of FNSF to allow space for interior plasma components. High current density HTS magnets are particularly attractive in reducing the size of a fusion device, beneficial for compact tokamaks, due to their space constraints. Successful HTS magnet development may enable the design of smaller and cheaper fusion pilot plants with a mission of demonstrating net electricity. It may also offer significant cost and performance advantages in non-fusion applicants such as nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Furthermore, we developed HTS magnet design concepts for a compact FNSF radial build in order to define the coil size, winding pack mechanical loading and engineering requirements. Partnering with vendors in the US, PPPL is also testing high current cable prototypes aiming at enabling low cost cable technology toward 100 A/mm 2 engineering current density over the winding pack desired in high field model coil development for compact fusion pilot plants.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Review of Existing Test Methods for Occupancy Sensors

One of the key new features of connected lighting systems (CLS) is their ability to collect data from various types of integral sensors and share that data with other lighting or building systems. Occupancy and vacancy sensors have been widely adopted as an energy-saving strategy in buildings, yet published test methods for reproducibly characterizing their performance remain few and limited in their sophistication. As a result, it has been difficult to predict their performance in a specific application, and in practice, they frequently do not meet energy-savings expectations. Occupants at times remove or otherwise bypass occupancy sensors that hinder their work or otherwise do not perform as expected, thereby compromising the sensors’ potential to reduce energy consumption. Poor performance can result from multiple causes – ranging from fundamental limitations of the sensor technology, to misconfiguration, to poor placement in the room or space. Innovative occupancy sensors, some of them combining multiple sensing technologies, have come on the market over the years, with claims of improved performance compared to their predecessors; yet in practice, their performance has led to neither high deployment nor high user satisfaction in any significant application, nor has it differed enough from the performance of previous products to necessitate a test method that facilitated comparison between them. While the performance of both common and novel occupancy sensors has been the subject of many published research articles, the test methods that have been employed for them have typically been loosely described and incorporated custom equipment or techniques that render them difficult to reproduce, or have been limited in their ability to fairly characterize devices that utilize varying sensor technology. The lack of a well-described, technology-agnostic test method that yields reproducible results across different implementations has been a barrier to the commercial success of new occupancy sensor products, as users and specifiers who have been disappointed with previous products are often unwilling to take a chance with new ones. Motivated by a desire to fairly characterize new technologies that continue to enter the market and claim not only improved occupancy detection but, in some cases, also additional capabilities (e.g., the ability to measure traffic or discern between different object types), this report presents the results of a literature review of recent published, well-described test methods for characterizing occupancy sensor performance, as well as research articles containing ad-hoc test methods. The review also identifies and consolidates the best techniques for characterizing sensor performance in indoor spaces and identifies test method gaps that need to be filled in order to evaluate emerging technologies and products.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in the GDSA Framework (FY2021)

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Fuel Cycle Technology (FCT) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two high priorities for SFWST disposal R&D are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the SFWST Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, GDSA Framework, for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. GDSA Framework is supported by SFWST Campaign and its predecessor the Used Fuel Disposition (UFD) campaign. This report fulfills the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package (SF-21SN01030404) level 3 milestone, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework (FY2021) (M3SF-21SN010304042). It presents high level objectives and strategy for development of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis tools, demonstrates uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) tools in GDSA Framework in FY21, and describes additional UQ/SA tools whose future implementation would enhance the UQ/SA capability of GDSA Framework. This work was closely coordinated with the other Sandia National Laboratory GDSA work packages: the GDSA Framework Development work package (SF-21SN01030405), the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis work package (SF-21SN01030406), and the GDSA PFLOTRAN Development work package (SF-21SN01030407). This report builds on developments reported in previous GDSA Framework milestones, particularly M3SF 20SN010304032.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Framework for Identifying Building Energy Models of Localized Utility Service Areas Using Smart Meter Data

Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Prescreening-Based Subset Selection for Improving Predictions of Earth System Models With Application to Regional Prediction of Red Tide

We present the ensemble method of prescreening-based subset selection to improve ensemble predictions of Earth system models (ESMs). In the prescreening step, the independent ensemble members are categorized based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are regional and problem-specific. The ensemble size is then updated by selecting the subsets that improve the performance of the ensemble prediction using decision relevant metrics. We apply the method to improve the prediction of red tide along the West Florida Shelf in the Gulf of Mexico, which affects coastal water quality and has substantial environmental and socioeconomic impacts on the State of Florida. Red tide is a common name for harmful algal blooms that occur worldwide, which result from large concentrations of aquatic microorganisms, such as dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, a toxic single celled protist. We present ensemble method for improving red tide prediction using the high resolution ESMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reanalysis data. The study results highlight the importance of prescreening-based subset selection with decision relevant metrics in identifying non-representative models, understanding their impact on ensemble prediction, and improving the ensemble prediction. These findings are pertinent to other regional environmental management applications and climate services. Additionally, our analysis follows the FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship such that data and analysis tools are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. As such, the interactive Colab notebooks developed for data analysis are annotated in the paper. This allows for efficient and transparent testing of the results’ sensitivity to different modeling assumptions. Moreover, this research serves as a starting point to build upon for red tide management, using the publicly available CMIP, Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and reanalysis data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗