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DOE OSTI2020

Surrogate modelling the Baryonic Universe – I. The colour of star formation

The spectral energy distribution of a galaxy emerges from the complex interplay of many physical ingredients, including its star formation history (SFH), metallicity evolution, and dust properties. Using GALAXPY , a new galaxy spectral prediction tool, and SFHs predicted by the empirical model UNIVERSEMACHINE and the cosmological hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG, we isolate the influence of SFH on optical and near-infrared colours from 320 to 1080 Å at z = 0. By carrying out a principal component analysis, we demonstrate that physically motivated SFH variations modify galaxy colours along a single direction in colour space: the SFH-direction. We find that the projection of a galaxy’s present-day colours on to the SFH-direction is almost completely regulated by the fraction of stellar mass that the galaxy formed over the last billion years. Together with cosmic downsizing, this results in galaxies becoming redder as their host halo mass increases. We additionally study the change in galaxy colours due to variations in metallicity, dust attenuation, and nebular emission lines, finding that these properties vary broad-band colours along distinct directions in colour space relative to the SFH-direction. Finally, we show that the colours of low-redshift Sloan Digital Sky Survey galaxies span an ellipsoid with significant extent along two independent dimensions, and that the SFH-direction is well-aligned with the major axis of this ellipsoid. Our analysis supports the conclusion that variations in SFH are the dominant influence on present-day galaxy colours, and that the nature of this influence is strikingly simple.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Baryon fraction from the BAO amplitude: a consistent approach to parameterizing perturbation growth

Galaxy clustering constrains the baryon fraction Omega_b/Omega_m through the amplitude of baryon acoustic oscillations and the suppression of perturbations entering the horizon before recombination. This produces a different pre-recombination distribution of baryons and dark matter. After recombination, the gravitational potential responds to both components in proportion to their mass, allowing robust measurement of the baryon fraction. This is independent of new-physics scenarios altering the recombination background (e.g. Early Dark Energy). The accuracy of such measurements does, however, depend on how baryons and CDM are modeled in the power spectrum. Previous template-based splitting relied on approximate transfer functions that neglected part of information. We present a new method that embeds an extra parameter controlling the balance between baryons and dark matter in the growth terms of the perturbation equations in the CAMB Boltzmann solver. This approach captures the baryonic suppression of CDM prior to recombination, avoids inconsistencies, and yields a clean parametrization of the baryon fraction in the linear power spectrum, separating out the simple physics of growth due to the combined matter potential. We implement this framework in an analysis pipeline using Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure with HOD-informed priors and validate it against noiseless LCDM and EDE cosmologies with DESI-like errors. The new scheme achieves comparable precision to previous splitting while reducing systematic biases, providing a more robust way to baryon-fraction measurements. In combination with BBN constraints on the baryon density and Alcock-Paczynski estimates of the matter density, these results strengthen the use of baryon fraction measurements to derive a Hubble constant from energy densities, with future DESI and Euclid data expected to deliver competitive constraints.

Crespi, Andrea [U. Waterloo (main); Waterloo U., I↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing Output Bottlenecks of a Production Supercomputer: Analysis and Implications

This article studies the I/O write behaviors of the Titan supercomputer and its Lustre parallel file stores under production load. The results can inform the design, deployment, and configuration of file systems along with the design of I/O software in the application, operating system, and adaptive I/O libraries.We propose a statistical benchmarking methodology to measure write performance across I/O configurations, hardware settings, and system conditions. Moreover, we introduce two relative measures to quantify the write-performance behaviors of hardware components under production load. In addition to designing experiments and benchmarking on Titan, we verify the experimental results on one real application and one real application I/O kernel, XGC and HACC IO, respectively. These two are representative and widely used to address the typical I/O behaviors of applications.In summary, we find that Titan’s I/O system is variable across the machine at fine time scales. This variability has two major implications. First, stragglers lessen the benefit of coupled I/O parallelism (striping). Peak median output bandwidths are obtained with parallel writes to many independent files, with no striping or write sharing of files across clients (compute nodes). I/O parallelism is most effective when the application—or its I/O libraries—distributes the I/O load so that each target stores files for multiple clients and each client writes files on multiple targets in a balanced way with minimal contention. Second, our results suggest that the potential benefit of dynamic adaptation is limited. In particular, it is not fruitful to attempt to identify “good locations” in the machine or in the file system: component performance is driven by transient load conditions and past performance is not a useful predictor of future performance. For example, we do not observe diurnal load patterns that are predictable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Balance of Plant Modeling and Real-Time Hardware-in-the-Loop Integration with the Microreactor Automated Control System

The advent of novel microreactor technology has driven a focused effort to explore safety and efficiency improvements that can be achieved through the use of automated system control. Development of control strategies, especially for initial demonstration, requires an adequate surrogate environment to safely research failure modes and control integration with realistic hardware delay. However, efficiency gains from control strategies are improved when the scope of controller action is expanded to include system-level dynamics such as downstream heat extraction and mass flow. For this reason, a balance-of-plant (BOP) model of a representative microreactor system has been developed using the TRANsient Simulation Framework of Reconfigurable Models library in Modelica. This model captures a reactor and primary NaK coolant loop that represent corresponding system components of the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) design as well as a secondary coolant loop and heat extraction representative of the Microreactor Agile Non-Nuclear Experimental Test Bed (MAGNET). This model configuration allows for hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) integration with microreactor automated control system (MACS) hardware in real time through a Python-based gRPC client. Real-time simulation of model performance with emulated hardware and communication delay suggests that under independent proportional-integral-derivative control of BOP model drum dynamics and downstream heat extraction, stable power load following is achievable. A slight delay in load following, filtering of high-frequency dynamics, and localized temperature fluctation suggest room for improvement through the development of higher-level control strategies. The simulated coupling of the MAGNET facility lays the groundwork for future digital twin analysis with a coupled MACS-MAGNET HIL demonstration.

McConnell, Jono [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000238984741)↗

DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Linking Hydrology and Dissolved Organic Matter Characteristics in a Subtropical Wetland: A Long-Term Study of the Florida Everglades

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) acts as an important biogeochemical component of aquatic ecosystems that controls nutrient cycling, influences water quality, and links terrestrial and oceanic carbon pools, yet long-term studies of how changing environmental drivers alter its abundance and composition are rare. Using a ten-year, spatially explicit dataset from Everglades National Park (ENP), a globally significant wetland, we investigated the relationships between DOM quality/quantity and hydrologic/climatic drivers along two contrasting marsh-estuarine transects based on generalized linear modeling and a cumulative sums analysis. Analyses revealed distinct spatial, seasonal, and interannual patterns in variability of DOC and optical properties. Landscape-scale seasonal patterns showed an enrichment in microbial-like and protein-like DOM during the dry season relative to the wet season. We found that, while some compositional constituents varied with the solar calendar, responsive to temperature and photoperiod, others varied with the hydrologic calendar. Independent water level and discharge effects indicated strong hydrologic control on DOM quality that differed between the two transects, evidencing differences in their connectivity to areas of high agricultural activity. Across all sites, a significant long-term increasing trend in the fluorescence index was observed, associated with a positive correlation with precipitation and also potential changes in agricultural inputs, with other features associated with drought and hurricanes. Lastly, the cumulative sums analysis revealed differences between the two transects in the sensitivity of DOM composition to decreased water levels associated with 30-year climate scenarios, with the less hydrologically dynamic transect exhibiting greater potential sensitivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Design and Evaluation of "CAPTools"--A Computer Aided Parallelization Toolkit

Writing applications for high performance computers is a challenging task. Although writing code by hand still offers the best performance, it is extremely costly and often not very portable. The Computer Aided Parallelization Tools (CAPTools) are a toolkit designed to help automate the mapping of sequential FORTRAN scientific applications onto multiprocessors. CAPTools consists of the following major components: an inter-procedural dependence analysis module that incorporates user knowledge; a 'self-propagating' data partitioning module driven via user guidance; an execution control mask generation and optimization module for the user to fine tune parallel processing of individual partitions; a program transformation/restructuring facility for source code clean up and optimization; a set of browsers through which the user interacts with CAPTools at each stage of the parallelization process; and a code generator supporting multiple programming paradigms on various multiprocessors. Besides describing the rationale behind the architecture of CAPTools, the parallelization process is illustrated via case studies involving structured and unstructured meshes. The programming process and the performance of the generated parallel programs are compared against other programming alternatives based on the NAS Parallel Benchmarks, ARC3D and other scientific applications. Based on these results, a discussion on the feasibility of constructing architectural independent parallel applications is presented.

Yan, Jerry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Medical Database Accomplishments and Lessons Learned - 2021

The Medical Database (MD) is a virtual repository consisting of two software components: the Medical Item Database (MedID) and the Evidence Library (EL). MedID consists of engineering data and associated information for specific medical resource items (e.g., pharmaceutical, medical devices, and supporting components), while the EL is a tool which provides all of the medical evidence necessary. The Medical Database will serve as the single “source of truth” for the Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool suite for both medical evidence and medical resource engineering data. It will be used in conjunction with the IMPACT tool suite to inform research prioritizations and perform systematic trade study evaluations using probabilistic risk assessment and simulated human spaceflight missions to aid stakeholders in making informed decisions during Pre-Phase-A planning of human spaceflight missions. The IMPACT project is conducted under the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element of the Human Research Program (HRP), within NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. Over the past year, the MedID software has been successfully merged with the Evidence Library into one cohesive Medical Database with two independent user interface experiences for modifying either clinical evidence or resource engineering data. As MD has evolved substantially over the past year, a number of challenges have been encountered and overcome along the way. A number of ‘lessons learned’ and practical/logistical realizations have emerged which will be detailed in the forthcoming Medical Database presentation.

Exploration Medical Capability↗

NASA NTRS2015

Rao-Blackwellization for Adaptive Gaussian Sum Nonlinear Model Propagation

When dealing with imperfect data and general models of dynamic systems, the best estimate is always sought in the presence of uncertainty or unknown parameters. In many cases, as the first attempt, the Extended Kalman filter (EKF) provides sufficient solutions to handling issues arising from nonlinear and non-Gaussian estimation problems. But these issues may lead unacceptable performance and even divergence. In order to accurately capture the nonlinearities of most real-world dynamic systems, advanced filtering methods have been created to reduce filter divergence while enhancing performance. Approaches, such as Gaussian sum filtering, grid based Bayesian methods and particle filters are well-known examples of advanced methods used to represent and recursively reproduce an approximation to the state probability density function (pdf). Some of these filtering methods were conceptually developed years before their widespread uses were realized. Advanced nonlinear filtering methods currently benefit from the computing advancements in computational speeds, memory, and parallel processing. Grid based methods, multiple-model approaches and Gaussian sum filtering are numerical solutions that take advantage of different state coordinates or multiple-model methods that reduced the amount of approximations used. Choosing an efficient grid is very difficult for multi-dimensional state spaces, and oftentimes expensive computations must be done at each point. For the original Gaussian sum filter, a weighted sum of Gaussian density functions approximates the pdf but suffers at the update step for the individual component weight selections. In order to improve upon the original Gaussian sum filter, Ref. [2] introduces a weight update approach at the filter propagation stage instead of the measurement update stage. This weight update is performed by minimizing the integral square difference between the true forecast pdf and its Gaussian sum approximation. By adaptively updating each component weight during the nonlinear propagation stage an approximation of the true pdf can be successfully reconstructed. Particle filtering (PF) methods have gained popularity recently for solving nonlinear estimation problems due to their straightforward approach and the processing capabilities mentioned above. The basic concept behind PF is to represent any pdf as a set of random samples. As the number of samples increases, they will theoretically converge to the exact, equivalent representation of the desired pdf. When the estimated qth moment is needed, the samples are used for its construction allowing further analysis of the pdf characteristics. However, filter performance deteriorates as the dimension of the state vector increases. To overcome this problem Ref. [5] applies a marginalization technique for PF methods, decreasing complexity of the system to one linear and another nonlinear state estimation problem. The marginalization theory was originally developed by Rao and Blackwell independently. According to Ref. [6] it improves any given estimator under every convex loss function. The improvement comes from calculating a conditional expected value, often involving integrating out a supportive statistic. In other words, Rao-Blackwellization allows for smaller but separate computations to be carried out while reaching the main objective of the estimator. In the case of improving an estimator's variance, any supporting statistic can be removed and its variance determined. Next, any other information that dependents on the supporting statistic is found along with its respective variance. A new approach is developed here by utilizing the strengths of the adaptive Gaussian sum propagation in Ref. [2] and a marginalization approach used for PF methods found in Ref. [7]. In the following sections a modified filtering approach is presented based on a special state-space model within nonlinear systems to reduce the dimensionality of the optimization problem in Ref. [2]. First, the adaptive Gaussian sum propagation is explained and then the new marginalized adaptive Gaussian sum propagation is derived. Finally, an example simulation is presented.

state estimation↗

NASA NTRS1993

Nimbus-7 Earth radiation budget calibration history. Part 1: The solar channels

The Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiment on the Nimbus-7 satellite measured the total solar irradiance plus broadband spectral components on a nearly daily basis from 16 Nov. 1978, until 16 June 1992. Months of additional observations were taken in late 1992 and in 1993. The emphasis is on the electrically self calibrating cavity radiometer, channel 10c, which recorded accurate total solar irradiance measurements over the whole period. The spectral channels did not have inflight calibration adjustment capabilities. These channels can, with some additional corrections, be used for short-term studies (one or two solar rotations - 27 to 60 days), but not for long-term trend analysis. For channel 10c, changing radiometer pointing, the zero offsets, the stability of the gain, the temperature sensitivity, and the influences of other platform instruments are all examined and their effects on the measurements considered. Only the question of relative accuracy (not absolute) is examined. The final channel 10c product is also compared with solar measurements made by independent experiments on other satellites. The Nimbus experiment showed that the mean solar energy was about 0.1 percent (1.4 W/sqm) higher in the excited Sun years of 1979 and 1991 than in the quiet Sun years of 1985 and 1986. The error analysis indicated that the measured long-term trends may be as accurate as +/- 0.005 percent. The worse-case error estimate is +/- 0.03 percent.

Kyle, H. Lee↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thin film combinatorial sputtering of Al-Ce alloys: Investigating the phase separation of as-deposited solid solutions and determining the coefficient of thermal expansion

Al x Ce 100–x thin films with a composition range of ~75.0 < x < 99.5 at% (36.5 < x < 97.5 wt%) were synthesized via combinatorial co-sputtering from an Al and an Al 50 Ce 50 target. The crystal structure, phase fraction, film morphology, electrical resistivity, and temperature-dependent coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) are all correlated to the Al x Ce 100–x composition. The as-deposited films form a metastable solid-solution, and annealing leads to the formation of the thermodynamically stable two-phase system of Al and the α-Al 11 Ce 3 intermetallic. Temperature dependent x-ray diffraction (XRD) reveals that the two phases expand independently of one another, and the thin film Al temperature-dependent CTE is similar to bulk Al. The thin film Al 11 Ce 3 intermetallic phase has a nearly constant CTE of ~1.5 × 10 –5 /°C within the temperature range studied (25–550 °C). To confirm the thin film Al 11 Ce 3 results, bulk stoichiometric Al 11 Ce 3 and +/- 1 wt% Ce samples were prepared and the CTE of each was measured with the same conditions. A Rietveld analysis of the bulk data enabled an estimation of the CTE in each of the 3 orthorhombic lattice parameters, which displayed anisotropic behavior. The thin film and bulk CTE measurements were in very good agreement. Estimations of the temperature dependent CTE of the two-phase alloys are made via the Reuss and Voigt models. Finally, by demonstrating the efficacy of the approach, more complex multi-component rapid materials discovery of low CTE Al-alloys can be pursued via the combinatorial thin film synthesis and XRD measurement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Supernovae and their host galaxies – VII. The diversity of Type Ia supernova progenitors

ABSTRACT We present an analysis of the light curve (LC) decline rates (Δm15) of 407 normal and peculiar supernovae (SNe) Ia and global parameters of their host galaxies. As previously known, there is a significant correlation between the Δm15 of normal SNe Ia and global ages (morphologies, colours, and masses) of their hosts. On average, those normal SNe Ia that are in galaxies from the Red Sequence (early-type, massive, old hosts) have faster declining LCs in comparison with those from the Blue Cloud (late-type, less massive, younger hosts) of the colour–mass diagram. The observed correlations between the Δm15 of normal SNe Ia and hosts’ parameters appear to be due to the superposition of at least two distinct populations of faster and slower declining normal SNe Ia from older and younger stellar components. We show, for the first time, that the Δm15 of 91bg- and 91T-like SNe is independent of host morphology and colour. The distribution of hosts on the colour–mass diagram confirms the known tendency for 91bg-like SNe to occur in globally red/old galaxies, while 91T-like events prefer blue/younger hosts. On average, the youngest global ages of 02cx-like SNe hosts and their positions in the colour–mass diagram hint that these events likely originate from young population, but they differ from 91T-like events in the LC decline rate. Finally, we discuss the possible explosion channels and present our favoured SN Ia models that have the potential to explain the observed SN–host relations.

Hakobyan, A. A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

TRL Assessment of Solar Sail Technology Development Following the 20-Meter System Ground Demonstrator Hardware Testing

The NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) Projects Office has been sponsoring 2 separate, independent system design and development hardware demonstration activities during 2002-2005. ATK Space Systems of Goleta, CA was the prime contractor for one development team and L'Garde, Inc. of Tustin, CA was the prime contractor for the other development team. The goal of these activities was to advance the technology readiness level (TRL) of solar sail propulsion from 3 towards 6 by the year 2006. Component and subsystem fabrication and testing were completed successfully, including the ground deployment of 10-meter and 20-meter ground demonstration hardware systems under vacuum conditions. The deployment and structural testing of the 20-meter solar sail systems was conducted in the 30 meter diameter Space Power Facility thermal-vacuum chamber at NASA Glenn Plum Brook in April though August, 2005. This paper will present the results of the TRL assessment following the solar sail technology development activities associated with the design, development, analysis and testing of the 20-meter system ground demonstrators. Descriptions of the system designs for both the ATK and L'Garde systems will be presented. Changes, additions and evolution of the system designs will be highlighted. A description of the modeling and analyses activities performed by both teams, as well as testing conducted to raise the TRL of solar sail technology will be presented. A summary of the results of model correlation activities will be presented. Finally, technology gaps identified during the assessment and gap closure plans will be presented, along with "lessons learned", subsequent planning activities and validation flight opportunities for solar sail propulsion technology.

Montgomery, Edward E.↗

NASA NTRS2007

TRL Assessment of Solar Sail Technology Development Following the 20-Meter System Ground Demonstrator Hardware Testing

Young, Roy M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

TRL Assessment of Solar Sail Technology Development Following the 20-Meter System Ground Demonstrator Hardware Testing

The NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) Projects Office sponsored two separate, independent solar sail system design and development demonstration activities during 2002-2005. ATK Space Systems of Goleta, CA was the prime contractor for one development team and L' Garde, Inc. of Tustin, CA was the prime contractor for the other development team. The goal of these activities was to advance the technology readiness level (TRL) of solar sail propulsion from 3 towards 6 by the year 2006. Component and subsystem fabrication and testing were completed successfully, including the ground deployment of 10-meter and 20-meter demonstration hardware systems under vacuum conditions. The deployment and structural testing of the 20-meter solar sail systems was conducted in the 30 meter diameter Space Power Facility thermal-vacuum chamber at NASA Glenn Plum Brook in April though August, 2005. This paper will present the results of the TRL assessment following the solar sail technology development activities associated with the design, development, analysis and testing of the 20-meter system ground demonstrators.

Young, Roy M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Airborne lidar observations of smoke haze during SCAR-B 1995

The Smoke, Clouds, Aerosol, and Radiation Brazil(SCAR-B) field campaign was conducted to study the effects that widespread and persistent biomass burning have upon radiative and chemical processes in the atmosphere. The radiative transfer characteristics of the atmosphere are altered by the introduction of particulate and gaseous materials which are the products of the combustion of vegetative material at ground level. These substances are transported and distributed horizontally and vertically by atmospheric dynamical processes which may be perturbed by the heat energy from the fires. As the pollutants disperse, their physical and chemical properties change substantially. A complete description of the effects of smoke requires that the evolution back to the natural situation be fully examined. A most important component of smoke haze investigation is finding its vertical and horizontal distribution in relation to the driving factors of dynamics and the related horizontal transport. In this presentation, we employ data from the Cloud Lidar System(CLS), carried aboard the NASA ER-2 aircraft, to provide a unique view of the particulate or aerosol loading produced by fires, especially with regard to the geometrical distribution of the aerosols in the vertical plane. The lidar has the ability to measure aerosol optical properties in a continuous fashion at quite fine vertical and horizontal resolution. The results from the lidar provide measurements that are largely independent of influences that corrupt passive instruments and thus it can serve to corroborate their results. The extended horizontal and vertical range of lidar results can also augment ground based and airborne in situ measurements which have limited horizontal and vertical scope. We present the results of our analysis of CLS observations taken during the SCAR-B field campaign. Observations of the the aerosol optical thickness from the Aerosol Robotic Network(AERONET) of solar photometers are employed in conjunction with CLS data to derive extinction to backscatter ratio values which are used to convert the lidar backscatter coefficient into extinction coefficient. The extinction coefficient is integrated vertically to find aerosol optical thickness along ER-2 flight tracks. We use images of the CLS derived extinction coefficient to depict its horizontal and vertical distribution. Multispectral photometer optical thickness is used to compute the Angstrom exponent. With these, we examine the hypothesis that the values of extinction to backscatter ratio can be related to the Anstrom coefficient since both of these would be a function of the refractive index and size distribution of the aerosols.

Hart, William D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. II. A Joint Analysis of Trans-Neptunian Absolute Magnitudes, Colors, Light Curves and Dynamics

For the 696 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with absolute magnitudes 5.5 < H r < 8.2 detected in the Dark Energy Survey, we characterize the relationships between their dynamical state and physical properties—namely H r , indicating size; colors, indicating surface composition; and flux variation semiamplitude A, indicating asphericity and surface inhomogeneity. We seek “birth” physical distributions that can recreate these parameters in every dynamical class. We show that the observed colors of these TNOs are consistent with two Gaussian distributions in griz space, “near-infrared bright” (NIRB) and “near-infrared faint” (NIRF), presumably an inner and outer birth population, respectively. We find a model in which both the NIRB and NIRF H r and A distributions are independent of current dynamical states, supporting their assignment as birth populations. All objects are consistent with a common rolling p(H r ), but NIRF objects are significantly more variable. Cold classicals (CCs) are purely NIRF, while hot classical (HC), scattered, and detached TNOs are consistent with ≈ 70% NIRB and the resonance NIRB fractions show significant variation. The NIRB components of the HCs and of some resonances have broader inclination distributions than the NIRFs, i.e. their current dynamics retains information about birth location. We find evidence for radial stratification within the birth NIRB population, in that HC NIRBs are on average redder than detached or scattered NIRBs; a similar effect distinguishes CCs from other NIRFs. We estimate total object counts and masses of each class within our H r range. These results will strongly constrain models of the outer solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning and Economic Models to Enable Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance of a Nuclear Plant Asset

The primary objective of this research is to address challenges in the implementation of risk-informed, condition-based predictive maintenance (PdM), which reduces operating costs while still maintaining the safety and reliability of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To achieve the objective, risk models are being developed by taking advantage of advancements in data analytics, deep learning, machine learning (ML), and artificial intelligence (AI). The notable outcomes presented in the report include ? Development of a ML models using heterogeneous plant process and vibration data collected at different spatial and temporal resolutions from the Salem?s CWS to diagnose a circulating water pump (CWP) failure based on salient fault signatures. The developed diagnostic models are extendable to other faults associated with CWPs and CWP motors given associated fault signatures. ? Development of a natural language processing (NLP) technique to automatically classify the WO data into different categories. The developed NLP technique was validated on independent WO data. This automates the tedious and time-consuming activity of mining and classifying WOs by subject matter experts. ? Estimation of mean time between downtime (i.e., time duration between time instances when 1 or more CWPs are not available) and developed an approach to establish reliability of CWS components using unstructured WO data along with CWS plant process data. ? Formulation of economic model based on Markov chain models. The parameters of associated with the transition rate between different states of Markov chain models were estimated using WO data. The economic model formulation and discussion captures both time-independent and time-dependent parameter variation, leading to risk-informed decision-making.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗