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Flood Monitoring and Crop Damage Assessment

In recent years, the occurrence and impact of inland and coastal flood events have become more frequent and damaging, especially within agricultural fields, due to the global climate change and consistent sea level rise. Monitoring and measuring the magnitude of flood events in a timely manner and assessing the subsequent crop damages accurately are precursors in minimizing detrimental consequences that could potentially lead to a global food security crisis. Traditional gauge-based measurements with sophisticated hydrological models are capable of monitoring flood events precisely but limited within the smaller spatial extent, time-consuming, and costly. In recent decades, advancement in airborne- and satellite-based remote sensing technologies offering products at a daily global spatial extent with various spectral resolution helps address the shortcomings of the traditional in situ approaches in flood monitoring. Furthermore, the methods such as classification and band ratioing using remote sensing products are simple and effective in assessing flood-induced agricultural damages. The combination of remote sensing products and geographic information systems along with the current development in web mapping, users now can get near real-time flood monitoring and crop damage assessments, albeit dependent upon the quality of available data. A case study to quantify the impact of the 2011 Missouri Mississippi River flooding on the surrounding cornfield was performed through a regression model. The model was trained using historical daily NDVI and corn yield across Nebraska and Missouri, and the overall accuracy in estimating corn yield was about 90%. The method implemented in this localized case study could be extended at a larger geographical scale.

Flood monitoring↗

Comparison of SAR and CYNSS surface water extent metrics over the Yucatan Lake wetland site

Wetlands have a major role in the carbon cycle, outgassing large quantities of carbon dioxide and methane through processes that are directly and strongly influenced by the duration and timing of inundation. Therefore, understanding the seasonal pattern of inundation can be a component for regional to global scale carbon models. Measurement of inundation extent also establishes a benchmark for the current status of wetland areas, useful in assessing the future impacts of climate change. The incorporation of frequent measurements of inundation extent into large-scale hydrological models would permit the evaluation of more detailed seasonal and longer-term floodplain dynamics and their associated management implications.The Cyclone GNSS (CYGNSS) constellation of satellites launched in 2016, and carries receivers capable of receiving data from L-band GNSS reflections. Delay Doppler maps (DDM) are generated on board and telemetered to the ground, along with a small number of raw data takes that can be used for special processing on the ground for evaluation purposes. It has been previously shown that these data can be sensitive to inundation.The NASA ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar, currently planned for launch in January 2023, has both an L-band and S-band SAR for earth imaging. The L-band SAR, which will image the Earth's land mass twice every 12 days, has a requirement for measuring wetland inundation extent at the 1 ha scale. One of the sites that will be used to validate this requirement is Yucatan Lake, Louisiana. This oxbow lake and surrounding area located adjacent to the Mississippi river experiences periodic and extensive flooding in the surrounding forest areas.In 2019, NASA's UAVSAR fully polarimetric airborne L-band SAR conducted a flight campaign to image a dozen sites in the SE USA at approximately 12-day intervals and both in the morning and evening, to simulate the type of data NISAR will obtain. One site imaged during this campaign was the Yucatan Lake area, spanning water stages from low to high flood conditions.It has been demonstrated previously that GNSS reflectometry such as that measured by CYGNSS may be used to characterize surface inundation. It has also been known for decades that L-band SAR may be used to characterize not only the presence of open water, but also the presence of subcanopy inundation in forested areas. In this paper we will present results comparing data from these two types of instruments.

Lavalle, Marco↗

Western Tennessee Water Resources: Leveraging High Resolution Remotely Sensed Data to Assess Water Availability and Vulnerability in the Memphis Aquifer Area in West Tennessee

The Memphis Aquifer (MA) is located in the Mississippi Embayment that extends 250,000 square kilometers across eight states. Fayette and Haywood counties in West Tennessee are situated within the recharge zone of the MA and include the forthcoming Ford “mega campus” named Blue Oval City (BOC), which will consist of a vehicle-production facility and battery assembly division. Increased water demand and land cover change resulting from urban development, such as BOC in the MA’s narrow recharge zone, threaten the aquifer’s groundwater storage and recharge rate. Groundwater recharge factors that influence the narrow recharge zone of the MA include precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and land cover type. In partnership with Protect Our Aquifer (POA) and the Center for Applied Earth Science and Engineering Research (CAESAR) at the University of Memphis, the team used data from the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS), Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS). The team also used ancillary data from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Noah Land Surface Model. These results identified “thriving” recharge locations, which are areas most conducive to aquifer recharge in Fayette County. The partners may use the results to prioritize specific areas in need of protection before they become susceptible to the effects of urbanization and industrialization.

precipitation↗

Southeast U.S. Agriculture: Evaluating the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Flash Droughts within Agricultural Areas and Regional Crop Calendars in the Southeast using Earth Observations

A flash drought refers to the rapid onset or intensification of drought-like conditions. Within the Southeastern United States, flash droughts are made worse by the presence of consumptive vegetation and poor water-holding soils. According to the United States Drought Monitor, a 2016 flash drought occurred with roughly 92% of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee experiencing “severe drought” or worse in the fall of that year. The event resulted in widespread wildfires, reservoir shortages that led to interstate disputes over water rights, significant deterioration of pasture and rangeland, and crop sale losses. The occurrence of a flash drought similar to that listed above can cost the Southeast hundreds of millions of dollars, with effects lasting for several years. For this reason, the development of flash drought monitoring, forecasting, and communication tools is needed to alert both states and their practitioners of possible flash drought events, offsetting the potential loss caused by a flash drought event. This research employed NASA's Short-Term Prediction and Transition Center-Land Information System, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager and other datasets to determine climatological trends during peak growing season from 2000-2022. These products can help partners at the Alabama Office of the State Climatologist, National Integrated Drought Information System, and National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network better manage agricultural lands inside drought-prone zones and monitor crop sensitivity during different growing seasons.

Kindrea Gibbons↗

A Ground-Based Network for Improved Validation of Satellite Carbon Dioxide and Methane Observations Over the Eastern United States

Satellite observations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), notably carbon dioxide and methane, over the Eastern United States, are currently only validated indirectly and/or sporadically. There are only four existing routine, ground-based remote sensing locations in the United States suitable for validation of satellite GHG observations: Edwards and Pasadena, CA, Lamont, OK, and Park Falls, WI as part of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). Among other efforts, e.g. the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and EM27/SUN deployments led by the University of Toronto, the only sites west of the Mississippi River are Park Falls, WI and Toronto, ON. The only remaining validation tools, vicarious calibration and airborne campaigns, are sporadic in space and/or time and thus coincide with only a small subsample of available soundings and conditions. As a result, satellite GHG observations over the east coast of the United States, home to more than half of its population, lack a consistent, widespread means of validation. We describe an ongoing effort to position 8 EM27/SUN spectrometers along the Eastern Seaboard over the next two years. The goals of this effort are to improve both satellite validation and our understanding of human and natural influences on the carbon cycle of the Eastern US, the former enabling the latter. This work is intended to augment past, ongoing, and future inter-agency programs, e.g., the NIST Urban Testbed, routine aircraft and aircore sampling by NOAA, and NASA’s Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT)-America sub-orbital campaign, in particular by offering information on broader time and spatial scales than what is already available while maintaining the high-accuracy constraints of in situ data. We will present early analysis including siting considerations to capture local and/or background conditions and comparison to NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling and assimilation systems. This includes a 40-day, 3-km horizontal resolution global simulation of early 2020 and a 50-km retrospective analysis of Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) observations over 2015-present. Both are valuable tools for analyzing expected and observed signals and are useful boundary conditions for yet higher-resolution studies.

Brad Weir↗

North American Wintering Mallards Infected With Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Show Few Signs of Altered Local or Migratory Movements

Avian influenza viruses pose a threat to wildlife and livestock health. The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in wild birds and poultry in North America in late 2021 was the first such outbreak since 2015 and the largest outbreak in North America to date. Despite its prominence and economic impacts, we know relatively little about how HPAI spreads in wild bird populations. In January 2022, we captured 43 mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in Tennessee, USA, 11 of which were actively infected with HPAI. These were the first confirmed detections of HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in the Mississippi Flyway. We compared movement patterns of infected and uninfected birds and found no clear differences; infected birds moved just as much during winter, migrated slightly earlier, and migrated similar distances as uninfected birds. Infected mallards also contacted and shared space with uninfected birds while on their wintering grounds, suggesting ongoing transmission of the virus. We found no differences in body condition or survival rates between infected and uninfected birds. Together, these results show that HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b infection was unrelated to body condition or movement behavior in mallards infected at this location during winter; if these results are confirmed in other seasons and as HPAI H5N1 continues to evolve, they suggest that these birds could contribute to the maintenance and dispersal of HPAI in North America. Further research on more species across larger geographic areas and multiple seasons would help clarify potential impacts of HPAI on waterfowl and how this emerging disease spreads at continental scales, across species, and potentially between wildlife and domestic animals.

animal migration↗

Flood Impacts on Net Ecosystem Exchange in the Midwestern and Southern United States in 2019

Climate extremes such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, frosts, and windstorms add considerable variability to the global year-to-year increase in atmospheric CO(2) through their influence on terrestrial ecosystems. While the impact of droughts on terrestrial ecosystems has received considerable attention, the response to flooding is not well understood. To improve upon this knowledge, the impact of the 2019 anomalously wet conditions over the Midwest and Southern US on CO(2) vegetation fluxes is examined in the context of 2017–2018 when such precipitation anomalies were not observed. CO(2) is simulated with NASA's Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) combined with the Low-order Flux Inversion, where fluxes of CO(2) are estimated using a suite of remote sensing measurements including greenness, night lights, and fire radiative power as well as with a bias correction based on insitu observations. Net ecosystem exchange CO(2) tracers are separated into the three regions covering the Midwest, South, and Eastern Texas and adjusted to match CO(2) observations from towers located in Iowa, Mississippi, and Texas. Results indicate that for the Midwestern region consisting primarily of corn and soybeans crops, flooding contributes to a 15%–25% reduction of annual net carbon uptake in 2019 in comparison to 2017 and 2018. These results are supported by independent reports of changes in agricultural activity. For the Southern region, comprised mainly of non-crop vegetation, annual net carbon uptake is enhanced in 2019 by about 10%–20% in comparison to 2017 and 2018. These outcomes show the heterogeneity in effects that excess wetness can bring to diverse ecosystems.

Nikolay Balashov↗

CFD Predictions of Fluctuating Pressure Environments on NASA’s SLS Ascent Unsteady Aerodynamics Wind Tunnel Test

This paper details work that is being conducted on predicting fluctuating pressure environments on NASA launch vehicles using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The accurate characterization of these aeroacoustics environments is necessary in the analysis of vehicle structural health and aerodynamic performance and in the vehicle design process. High-fidelity simulations of the unsteady flow over NASA’s SLS Ascent Unsteady Aerodynamics wind tunnel Test (AUAT) using the hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS)-large eddy simulations (LES) methodologies in Mississippi States’ Loci/CHEM solver are presented. The two available methods, Nelson-Nichols and dynamic hybrid RANS-LES (DHRL), are compared head-to-head on identical grids at two Mach numbers. At the high-subsonic Mach number, locally supersonic flow expanding over a shoulder induces a separation-reattachment system that is predicted poorly by the Nelson-Nichols method due to an under-prediction in unsteady content. The DHRL solution predicts the spatial extent and frequency domain response of this system well but under-predicts the peak noise levels due to a delay in the RANS-to-LES transition. At the low-supersonic Mach number, compression corner dynamics dominate the unsteady flow. While the Nelson Nichols solution captures this phenomenon well, another solution on a refined grid indicates that some model stress depletion is occurring. The DHRL solution again performs well at this Mach number and matches the wind tunnel data fairly closely, but perhaps most impressively, is fairly agnostic to increasing grid resolution. The findings in this paper are expected to be generally applicable and will be used to guide the prediction of aeroacoustics environments of other NASA launch vehicles.

CFD↗

Evaluation of Regional Water and Energy Balance in Contemporary Reanalyses

Regional to continental water and energy balance in reanalyses provide crucial information on the climate and climate variations in that region and can contrast other regions. Reanalyses are a valuable tool in piecing together the complete balance owing to the incorporation of the budgets in the background model and the assimilation of observation. On the other hand, the background model has its own biases and observational assimilation can lead to non-negligible tendencies within the budgets, and these can vary over space and time. Here, we will compare the balance within several reanalyses and how they have evolved over recent decades. Several observational data products will provide reference points in the comparison. In addition, a recent project has integrated observations of the water and energy budgets in an optimization that aims to reduce the imbalance of regional budgets in using observational terms from disparate sources. In evaluating the regional balances, we will incorporate, when available, the water and energy convergence terms as well as their analysis increments (which may be diagnosed as residuals). The reanalyses considered here include: Japanese Reanalyses for Three Quarters Century (JRA3Q), ECMWF Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) and the NCEP Reanalysis II (NCEPR2). NCEPR2 is representative of the late 90s technology, while the others represent the contemporary climate reanalyses presently available. We will discuss the regional balances over key river basins (e.g. Mississippi and Amazon), and a range of continents including those well observed (North America and Europe) and those with fewer consistent observations (e.g. Africa). These contrasting regions show the degree of advancement in reanalyses and expose areas in need of improvement. The results also demonstrate the usefulness of producing complete atmospheric water and energy budgets as part of the diagnostic output.

Michael G Bosilovich↗

Unsteady CFD Simulations of a Compression Corner Geometry Using Wall-Modeled LES Methods in Loci/CHEM

Several wall-modeled large eddy simulation (WMLES) methods are tested by simulating an unsteady Mach 2.0 compression corner geometry in Mississippi State’s Loci/CHEM solver. This study is conducted to evaluate the usage and requirements of these WMLES methods for applications regarding fluctuating pressure environments on launch vehicles with computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Two hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS)-large eddy simulation (LES) methods, Dynamic Hybrid RANS-LES (DHRL) and Improved Delayed Detached Eddy Simulation (IDDES), and one wall-stress-model, the Algebraic Wall Model for Wall-Modeled LES (AWMLES), are tested on varying grid and timestep refinement levels. These grid and timestep sizes are chosen to test the minimum requirements for successfully running these WMLES methods. The simulations are evaluated based on turbulent boundary layer properties in the developed boundary layer as well as unsteady quantities relating to fluctuating pressure environments in the region of the compression corner. The DHRL method shows good agreement with the comparison wind tunnel data and shows good grid and timestep convergence. The results from the IDDES and WMLES simulations show good agreement for several quantities with some discrepancies regarding others. The results presented in this paper will be used to inform further studies in predicting unsteady environments on higher-complexity geometries.

Bryson Frank↗

Evaluation of Regional Water and Energy Balance in Contemporary Reanalyses

Regional to continental water and energy balance in reanalyses provide crucial information on the climate and climate variations in that region and can contrast other regions. Reanalyses are a valuable tool in piecing together the complete balance owing to the incorporation of the budgets in the background model and the assimilation of observation. On the other hand, the background model has its own biases and observational assimilation can lead to non-negligible tendencies within the budgets, and these can vary over space and time. Here, we will compare the balance within several reanalyses and how they have evolved over recent decades. Several observational data products will provide reference points in the comparison. In addition, a recent project has integrated observations of the water and energy budgets in an optimization that aims to reduce the imbalance of regional budgets in using observational terms from disparate sources. In evaluating the regional balances, we will incorporate, when available, the water and energy convergence terms as well as their analysis increments (which may be diagnosed as residuals). The reanalyses considered here include: Japanese Reanalyses for Three Quarters Century (JRA3Q), ECMWF Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) and the NCEP Reanalysis II (NCEPR2). NCEPR2 is representative of the late 90s technology, while the others represent the contemporary climate reanalyses presently available. We will discuss the regional balances over key river basins (e.g. Mississippi and Amazon), and a range of continents including those well observed (North America and Europe) and those with fewer consistent observations (e.g. Africa). These contrasting regions show the degree of advancement in reanalyses and expose areas in need of improvement. The results also demonstrate the usefulness of producing complete atmospheric water and energy budgets as part of the diagnostic output.

Michael Bosilovich↗

Evaluation of Water and Energy Cycles in Contemporary Atmospheric Reanalyses in US Basins

Global atmospheric reanalyses have become an important tool for climate studies, owing to the inclusion of observation driven model quantities that are not easily observed, if at all. This includes the study of regional water and energy budgets, despite the fact that the physical terms of the budgets do not balance, owing in large part to the influence of assimilated observations. Here, we focus on the regional water and energy budgets for key river basins in the US, related to the Humans and Hydroclimate in the US (H2US, a Global Energy and Watercycle EXchanges, GEWEX, regional hydroclimate project). Regional budgets and their residuals (related to the assimilated observations) from contemporary reanalyses will be evaluated and intercompared to assess the improvements over previous reanalyses and identify their strengths and weaknesses as contributions to H2US. When available, the observational analysis increments will be quantified directly, and as residuals when that information is missing. Early results show improvements over the Mississippi River basin water cycle closure, and reduced analysis increments. However, the energy analysis increments show non negligible seasonality. Results for the Colorado River basin and National Climate Assessment (NCA) regions will also be presented. The results will emphasize the need for reanalyses and models to produce complete budget equation terms.

Michael Bosilovich↗