Results for “Model Validation” — Page 31

NASA NTRS2018

Flood Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides, Rain and Sea Level Rise for a Tidal River Estuary

Cities and towns along the tidal Hudson River are highly vulnerable to flooding through the combination of storm tides and high streamflows, compounded by sea level rise. Here a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, validated by comparing peak water levels for 76 historical storms, is applied in a probabilistic flood hazard assessment. In simulations, the model merges streamflows and storm tides from tropical cyclones (TCs), offshore extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and inland "wet extratropical" cyclones (WETCs). The climatology of possible ETC and WETC storm events is represented by historical events (1931-2013), and simulations include gauged streamflows and inferred ungauged streamflows (based on watershed area) for the Hudson River and its tributaries. The TC climatology is created using a stochastic statistical model to represent a wider range of storms than is contained in the historical record. TC streamflow hydrographs are simulated for tributaries spaced along the Hudson, modeled as a function of TC attributes (storm track, sea surface temperature, maximum wind speed) using a statistical Bayesian approach. Results show WETCs are important to flood risk in the upper tidal river (e.g., Albany, New York), ETCs are important in the estuary (e.g., New York City) and lower tidal river, and TCs are important at all locations due to their potential for both high surge and extreme rainfall. The raising of floods by sea level rise is shown to be reduced by approximately 30-60 percent at Albany due to the dominance of streamflow for flood risk. This can be explained with simple channel flow dynamics, in which increased depth throughout the river reduces frictional resistance, thereby reducing the water level slope and the upriver water level.

Tidal river↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Power Grid Resilience with Causal Loops Diagram and Bayesian Networks

Enhancing power grid resilience through improved analysis and planning of Distributed Energy Resources is a key for power system planner. This paper explores the integration of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) and Bayesian Networks (BNs) for enhancing resilience in power systems, focusing on Distributed Energy Resources (DER) planning. By automating CLD analysis in Python's matplotlib, we present a tool for rapid model validation and structural accuracy, crucial for power system planners. This hybrid approach utilizes BNs for inferential depth and CLDs for dynamic system modeling, offering a comprehensive framework for policy formulation and collaborative strategy development against disruptions. Here, we highlight the tool's capability to identify and analyze interconnected feedback loops, facilitating a deeper understanding of DER integration's impact on network resilience. This work aims to bridge quantitative analysis and qualitative insights, addressing the limitations of each method while providing a robust model for power system resilience assessment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2001

Automated quantification of mitral valve regurgitation based on normalized centerline velocity distribution

Previous echocardiographic techniques for quantifying valvular regurgitation are limited by factors including uncertainties for orifice location and a hemispheric convergence assumption that often results in over- and underestimation of flow rate and regurgitant orifice area. Using computational fluid dynamics simulations, these factors were eliminated, allowing a more accurate assessment of regurgitation. A model was developed to allow automated quantification of regurgitant orifice diameter based on the centerline velocity data available from color M-mode echocardiography. The model, validated using in vitro unsteady flow data, demonstrated improved accuracy for orifice diameter (y=0.95x + 0.38, r=0.96) and volume (y=1.18x - 4.72, r=0.93).

NASA Program Biomedical Research and Countermeasur↗

NASA NTRS2008

Updated Results for the Wake Vortex Inverse Model

NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA) has developed an Inverse Model for inverting aircraft wake vortex data. The objective of the inverse modeling is to obtain estimates of the vortex circulation decay and crosswind vertical profiles, using time history measurements of the lateral and vertical position of aircraft vortices. The Inverse Model performs iterative forward model runs using estimates of vortex parameters, vertical crosswind profiles, and vortex circulation as a function of wake age. Iterations are performed until a user-defined criterion is satisfied. Outputs from an Inverse Model run are the best estimates of the time history of the vortex circulation derived from the observed data, the vertical crosswind profile, and several vortex parameters. The forward model, named SHRAPA, used in this inverse modeling is a modified version of the Shear-APA model, and it is described in Section 2 of this document. Details of the Inverse Model are presented in Section 3. The Inverse Model was applied to lidar-observed vortex data at three airports: FAA acquired data from San Francisco International Airport (SFO) and Denver International Airport (DEN), and NASA acquired data from Memphis International Airport (MEM). The results are compared with observed data. This Inverse Model validation is documented in Section 4. A summary is given in Section 5. A user's guide for the inverse wake vortex model is presented in a separate NorthWest Research Associates technical report (Lai and Delisi, 2007a).

Robins, Robert E.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Low Order Modeling Tools for Preliminary Pressure Gain Combustion Benefits Analyses

Pressure gain combustion (PGC) offers the promise of higher thermodynamic cycle efficiency and greater specific power in propulsion and power systems. This presentation describes a model, developed under a cooperative agreement between NASA and AFRL, for preliminarily assessing the performance enhancement and preliminary size requirements of PGC components either as stand-alone thrust producers or coupled with surrounding turbomachinery. The model is implemented in the Numerical Propulsion Simulation System (NPSS) environment allowing various configurations to be examined at numerous operating points. The validated model is simple, yet physics-based. It executes quickly in NPSS, yet produces realistic results.

Paxson, Daniel E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Film Cooled Recession of SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites: Test Development, CFD Modeling and Experimental Observations

SiCSiC ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) systems will play a crucial role in next generation turbine engines for hot-section component applications because of their ability to significantly increase engine operating temperatures, reduce engine weight and cooling requirements. However, the environmental stability of Si-based ceramics in high pressure, high velocity turbine engine combustion environment is of major concern. The water vapor containing combustion gas leads to accelerated oxidation and corrosion of the SiC based ceramics due to the water vapor reactions with silica (SiO2) scales forming non-protective volatile hydroxide species, resulting in recession of the ceramic components. Although environmental barrier coatings are being developed to help protect the CMC components, there is a need to better understand the fundamental recession behavior of in more realistic cooled engine component environments.In this paper, we describe a comprehensive film cooled high pressure burner rig based testing approach, by using standardized film cooled SiCSiC disc test specimen configurations. The SiCSiC specimens were designed for implementing the burner rig testing in turbine engine relevant combustion environments, obtaining generic film cooled recession rate data under the combustion water vapor conditions, and helping developing the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) film cooled models and performing model validation. Factors affecting the film cooled recession such as temperature, water vapor concentration, combustion gas velocity, and pressure are particularly investigated and modeled, and compared with impingement cooling only recession data in similar combustion flow environments. The experimental and modeling work will help predict the SiCSiC CMC recession behavior, and developing durable CMC systems in complex turbine engine operating conditions.

Recession↗

NASA NTRS2004

Demonstration of a 10-m Solar Sail System

The NASA In-Space Propulsion (ISP) program has been sponsoring system design development and hardware demonstration activities of solar sail technology over the past 16 months. Efforts to validate by test a moderate-scale (10-m) 1/4 symmetry ground demonstration sail system are nearly complete. Results of testing and analytical model validation of component and assembly functional, strength, stiffness, shape, and dynamic behavior are discussed.

Murphy, David M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Estimating the Need for Medical Intervention due to Sleep Disruption on the International Space Station

During ISS and shuttle missions, difficulties with sleep affect more than half of all US crews. Mitigation strategies to help astronauts cope with the challenges of disrupted sleep patterns can negatively impact both mission planning and vehicle design. The methods for addressing known detrimental impacts for some mission scenarios may have a substantial impact on vehicle specific consumable mass or volume or on the mission timeline. As part of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) task, NASA Glenn Research Center is leading the development of a Monte Carlo based forecasting tool designed to determine the consumables required to address risks related to sleep disruption. The model currently focuses on the International Space Station and uses an algorithm that assembles representative mission schedules and feeds this into a well validated model that predicts relative levels of performance, and need for sleep (SAFTE Model, IBR Inc). Correlation of the resulting output to self-diagnosed needs for hypnotics, stimulants, and other pharmaceutical countermeasures, allows prediction of pharmaceutical use and the uncertainty of the specified prediction. This paper outlines a conceptual model for determining a rate of pharmaceutical utilization that can be used in the IMM model for comparison and optimization of mitigation methods with respect to all other significant medical needs and interventions.

Myers, Jerry G.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Models of Sector Flows Under Local, Regional and Airport Weather Constraints

Recently, the ATM community has made important progress in collaborative trajectory management through the introduction of a new FAA traffic management initiative called a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP). FAA can use CTOPs to manage air traffic under multiple constraints (manifested as flow constrained areas or FCAs) in the system, and it allows flight operators to indicate their preferences for routing and delay options. CTOPs also permits better management of the overall trajectory of flights by considering both routing and departure delay options simultaneously. However, adoption of CTOPs in airspace has been hampered by many factors that include challenges in how to identify constrained areas and how to set rates for the FCAs. Decision support tools providing assistance would be particularly helpful in effective use of CTOPs. Such DSTs tools would need models of demand and capacity in the presence of multiple constraints. This study examines different approaches to using historical data to create and validate models of maximum flows in sectors and other airspace regions in the presence of multiple constraints. A challenge in creating an empirical model of flows under multiple constraints is a lack of sufficient historical data that captures diverse situations involving combinations of multiple constraints especially those with severe weather. The approach taken here to deal with this is two-fold. First, we create a generalized sector model encompassing multiple sectors rather than individual sectors in order to increase the amount of data used for creating the model by an order of magnitude. Secondly, we decompose the problem so that the amount of data needed is reduced. This involves creating a baseline demand model plus a separate weather constrained flow reduction model and then composing these into a single integrated model. A nominal demand model is a flow model (gdem) in the presence of clear local weather. This defines the flow as a function of weather constraints in neighboring regions, airport constraints and weather in locations that can cause re-routes to the location of interest. A weather constrained flow reduction model (fwx-red) is a model of reduction in baseline counts as a function of local weather. Because the number of independent variables associated with each of the two decomposed models is smaller than that with a single model, need for amount of data is reduced. Finally, a composite model that combines these two can be represented as fwx-red (gdem(e), l) where e represents non-local constraints and l represents local weather. The approaches studied to developing these models are divided into three categories: (1) Point estimation models (2) Empirical models (3) Theoretical models. Errors in predictions of these different types of models have been estimated. In situations when there is abundant data, point estimation models tend to be very accurate. In contrast, empirical models do better than theoretical models when there is some data available. The biggest benefit of theoretical models is their general applicability in wider range situations once the degree of accuracy of these has been established.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗

NASA NTRS2017

Models of Sector Aircraft Counts in the Presence of Local, Regional and Airport Constraints

Recently, the ATM community has made important progress in collaborative trajectory management through the introduction of a new FAA traffic management initiative called a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP). FAA can use CTOPs to manage air traffic under multiple constraints (manifested as flow constrained areas or FCAs) in the system, and it allows flight operators to indicate their preferences for routing and delay options. CTOPs also permits better management of the overall trajectory of flights by considering both routing and departure delay options simultaneously. However, adoption of CTOPs in airspace has been hampered by many factors that include challenges in how to identify constrained areas and how to set rates for the FCAs. Decision support tools providing assistance would be particularly helpful in effective use of CTOPs. Such DSTs tools would need models of demand and capacity in the presence of multiple constraints. This study examines different approaches to using historical data to create and validate models of maximum flows in sectors and other airspace regions in the presence of multiple constraints. A challenge in creating an empirical model of flows under multiple constraints is a lack of sufficient historical data that captures diverse situations involving combinations of multiple constraints especially those with severe weather. The approach taken here to deal with this is two-fold. First, we create a generalized sector model encompassing multiple sectors rather than individual sectors in order to increase the amount of data used for creating the model by an order of magnitude. Secondly, we decompose the problem so that the amount of data needed is reduced. This involves creating a baseline demand model plus a separate weather constrained flow reduction model and then composing these into a single integrated model. A nominal demand model is a flow model (gdem) in the presence of clear local weather. This defines the flow as a function of weather constraints in neighboring regions, airport constraints and weather in locations that can cause re-routes to the location of interest. A weather constrained flow reduction model (fwx-red) is a model of reduction in baseline counts as a function of local weather. Because the number of independent variables associated with each of the two decomposed models is smaller than that with a single model, need for amount of data is reduced. Finally, a composite model that combines these two can be represented as fwx-red (gdem(e), l) where e represents non-local constraints and l represents local weather. The approaches studied to developing these models are divided into three categories: (1) Point estimation models (2) Empirical models (3) Theoretical models. Errors in predictions of these different types of models have been estimated. In situations when there is abundant data, point estimation models tend to be very accurate. In contrast, empirical models do better than theoretical models when there is some data available. The biggest benefit of theoretical models is their general applicability in wider range situations once the degree of accuracy of these has been established.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗

NASA NTRS1989

Development and validation of CNS (compressible Navier-Stokes) for hypersonic external flows

CNS, a new computational fluid dynamics procedure, has been developed to aid in hypersonic vehicle design. The code can be used to model the entire external flow around hypersonic vehicle shapes, from the captured shock at the nose to the beginning of the wake. Unlike space-marching codes, the technique allows axially separated flow regions to be modeled. Validation trials using sphere-cone data reveal good solution accuracy for the surface pressure and flowfield temperature.

Flores, Jolen↗

NASA NTRS2016

UAS in the NAS Project: Large-Scale Communication Architecture Simulations with NASA GRC Gen5 Radio Model

This report provides a description and performance characterization of the large-scale, Relay architecture, UAS communications simulation capability developed for the NASA GRC, UAS in the NAS Project. The system uses a validated model of the GRC Gen5 CNPC, Flight-Test Radio model. Contained in the report is a description of the simulation system and its model components, recent changes made to the system to improve performance, descriptions and objectives of sample simulations used for test and verification, and a sampling and observations of results and performance data.

avionics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Informed Investments in Clean Energy Technologies

Governments and companies face consequential decisions about allocating resources to the research, development, demonstration and deployment of energy technologies to meet environmental, economic and social goals. Here we discuss how research insights can inform and potentially improve these decisions to make effective use of limited resources and time in shaping the next-generation energy infrastructure. We outline three key research steps: forecasting technological change, relating investments to economic, social and environmental outcomes and informing decision-making processes. We recommend advances to address uncertainty as well as to make methods and results more practicable, emphasizing the importance of model validation, streamlining and interactivity. Progress has been made, yet further work is needed-for example, in the development of reduced-order, testable models and more comprehensive data collection. Overall, this research is beginning to inform decisions but could be adopted more widely by governments and the private sector to help support technological progress for energy affordability, equitable climate change mitigation, health benefits and other objectives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2007

POST2 End-To-End Descent and Landing Simulation for the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology Project

The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) is used as a basis for an end-to-end descent and landing trajectory simulation that is essential in determining the design and performance capability of lunar descent and landing system models and lunar environment models for the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) project. This POST2-based ALHAT simulation provides descent and landing simulation capability by integrating lunar environment and lander system models (including terrain, sensor, guidance, navigation, and control models), along with the data necessary to design and operate a landing system for robotic, human, and cargo lunar-landing success. This paper presents the current and planned development and model validation of the POST2-based end-to-end trajectory simulation used for the testing, performance and evaluation of ALHAT project system and models.

Fisher, Jody l.↗

NASA NTRS2011

System Identification Applied to Dynamic CFD Simulation and Wind Tunnel Data

Demanding aerodynamic modeling requirements for military and civilian aircraft have provided impetus for researchers to improve computational and experimental techniques. Model validation is a key component for these research endeavors so this study is an initial effort to extend conventional time history comparisons by comparing model parameter estimates and their standard errors using system identification methods. An aerodynamic model of an aircraft performing one-degree-of-freedom roll oscillatory motion about its body axes is developed. The model includes linear aerodynamics and deficiency function parameters characterizing an unsteady effect. For estimation of unknown parameters two techniques, harmonic analysis and two-step linear regression, were applied to roll-oscillatory wind tunnel data and to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulated data. The model used for this study is a highly swept wing unmanned aerial combat vehicle. Differences in response prediction, parameters estimates, and standard errors are compared and discussed

Murphy, Patrick C.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) Chamber B Thermal Vacuum “Suit 2” Pressure Garment System Test Article Results

NASA’s Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) is the government reference next-generation spacesuit design and is engineered to protect astronauts from extreme lunar environmental temperatures. To evaluate the xEMU hardware thermal requirements, the xEMU Testing Team invented, designed, and executed a dual-suit, uncrewed thermal vacuum (TVAC) test at Johnson Space Center’s (JSC) Chamber B. This paper details the test results from the “Suit 2” Pressure Garment System (PGS) test article. The primary objective of the “Suit 2” PGS test article was to evaluate system-level suit heat leak and Environmental Protection Garment (EPG) thermal performance. Eleven unique thermal profiles were tested including both cold and hot environmental cases over the course of five continuous days of testing. The radiative thermal environment was controlled through exposure to liquid-nitrogen shrouds on the chamber walls and a heater cage surrounding the test article. This paper will principally focus on system-level thermal results from the “Suit 2” PGS test article. This paper will examine data collected from one-hundred and seventy thermocouples located in critical locations inside and outside of the suit, as well as seven resistance thermometers (RTDs) for calorimetry to determine total heat flux in and out of the suit. The test data will be compared against the system-level PGS thermal models for model validation. To conclude, this paper will address knowledge gaps presented by unmanned xPGS thermal vacuum testing and the current state of lunar xPGS thermal modeling and testing.

xEMU↗

NASA NTRS2017

Short-Term Forecasts Using NU-WRF for the Winter Olympics 2018

The NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF) will be included for testing and evaluation in the forecast demonstration project (FDP) of the International Collaborative Experiment −PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic (ICE-POP) Winter Games. An international array of radar and supporting ground based observations together with various forecast and now-cast models will be operational during ICE-POP. In conjunction with personnel from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is developing benchmark simulations for a real-time NU-WRF configuration to run during the FDP. ICE-POP observational datasets will be used to validate model simulations and investigate improved model physics and performance for prediction of snow events during the research phase (RDP) of the project The NU-WRF model simulations will also support NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission ground-validation physical and direct validation activities in relation to verifying, testing and improving satellite-based snowfall retrieval algorithms over complex terrain.

forecasting↗

NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Mg II During Solar Flares. II. Nonequilibrium Effects

To extract the information that the Mg II NUV spectra (observed by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph) carry about the chromosphere during solar ﬂares, and to validate models of energy transport via model–data comparison, forward modeling is required. The assumption of statistical equilibrium (SE) is typically used to obtain the atomic level populations from snapshots of ﬂare atmospheres, due to computational necessity. However, it is possible that relying on SE could lead to spurious results. We compare solving the atomic level populations via SE versus a non-equilibrium (NEQ) time-dependent approach. This was achieved using ﬂare simulations from RADYN alongside the minority species version MS_RADYN from which the time-dependent Mg II atomic level populations and radiation transfer were computed in complete frequency redistribution. The impacts on the emergent proﬁles, light curves, line ratios, and formation heights are discussed. In summary we note that NEQ effects during ﬂares are typically important only in the initial stages and for a short period following the cessation of the energy injection. An analysis of the timescales of ionization equilibrium reveals that for most of the duration of the ﬂare, when the temperatures and densities are sufﬁciently enhanced, the relaxation timescales are short (τrelax < 0.1 s), so that the equilibrium solution is an adequate approximation. These effects vary with the size of the ﬂare, however. In weaker ﬂares, effects can be more pronounced. We recommend that NEQ effects be considered when possible but that SE is sufﬁcient at most stages of the ﬂare.

Kerr, Graham S.↗