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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
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DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Fuels Campaign Execution Plan

The Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) Execution Plan details the strategy, mission, scope, and goals—both near-term and long-term—along with the structure and organization of nuclear fuels and materials research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) activities within the Fuel Cycle Technologies (FCT) program. The FCT program, tasked by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), employs a science-based approach to advance fuel technologies. This approach integrates theory, experiments, and multi-scale modeling and simulation (M&S) to develop a predictive understanding of fuel fabrication processes and fuel/cladding performance under irradiation, moving beyond traditional empirical methods. The long-term goals of the AFC are guided by the AFC Strategic Plan and align with the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) Roadmap [1], which outlines a multi-decade vision for demonstrating and qualifying advanced fuel forms to support diverse fuel cycle options. Near-term goals focus on enhancing accident tolerant fuels (ATF) for Light Water Reactors (LWR), a significant challenge that demands balancing immediate objectives with ongoing progress toward advanced reactor missions. Accelerating the traditional fuel qualification process to meet ATF objectives is another critical challenge. A detailed set of 5-year goals, summarized below, has been developed in line with the overarching science-based fuel development approach: • Advanced LWR Fuel Technologies: By 2027, support the development of advanced LWR fuel technologies with improved performance and enhanced accident tolerance. This includes high burnup (HBu), low enriched uranium (LEU)+, coated cladding, and doped fuel, aimed at complementing industry-led significant LWR uprates and plant refurbishments. • Tristructural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel: Achieve qualification by 2028 and develop improved designs for emerging markets. • Metal Fuel: Achieve qualification by 2028 and develop improved designs for emerging markets. • Molten Salt Fuel: By 2027, deploy a robust program that enables fuel salt qualification technologies needed to support fuel salt research and development (R&D), focusing on emergent needs to derisk fuel salt production and utilization in advanced reactors. • Long-Term ATF: Develop fuel technologies that enable significant power uprates (~50%) in refurbished or new LWRs while optimizing fissile material utilization and waste disposal. The 5-year milestones in the AFC Execution Plan are contingent on an assumed budget. This Execution Plan will be updated annually to reflect actual funding profiles as budget guidance becomes available, ensuring milestones are adjusted accordingly. In summary, the AFC Execution Plan presents a comprehensive strategy to advance nuclear fuel technologies through a science-based approach, addressing both near-term and long-term goals while adapting to funding realities.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interactions Between Climate Policy and Technology-influenced Travel Behavior: Mitigating Induced Demand from CACC

Advances in vehicle technology have influenced the development of automated vehicle systems, where vehicles that do not require human intervention are already deployed in the roadway networks. While these advances are proved to increase roadway safety and highway capacity, more research is needed to understand the long-term and regional-level impacts on mobility, land use, energy consumption, and emissions. This study proposes a multi-model approach to analyze the effect of vehicle automation and deep decarbonization policies over a period from 2020 to 2040 in Austin, Texas. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to develop internally the scenarios that are then passed to the SMART Mobility modeling workflow, a large-scale simulation framework combining the POLARIS activity-based travel demand model and mesoscopic traffic simulator with the Autonomie vehicle energy consumption model and the UrbanSim land use simulator. Results suggest that the introduction of vehicles with advanced automation could increase fuel consumption when no decarbonization policies are implemented. Also, advances in vehicle technology research and development could lead to a decline in energy use in the long-term. Energy pricing and vehicle electrification incentives could help reduce the impact of vehicle automation. Finally, our analysis indicates the relevance of introducing land use processes in longterm vehicle automation studies.

land use↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of the AI2 Climate Emulator to E3SMv2's Global Atmosphere Model, With a Focus on Precipitation Fidelity

Abstract Can the current successes of global machine learning‐based weather simulators be generalized beyond 2‐week forecasts to stable and accurate multiyear runs? The recently developed AI2 Climate Emulator (ACE) suggests this is feasible, based upon 10‐year simulations with a network trained on output from a physics‐based global atmosphere model using a grid spacing of approximately 110 km and forced by a repeating annual cycle of sea‐surface temperature. Here we show that ACE, without modification, can be trained to emulate another major atmospheric model, EAMv2, run at a comparable grid spacing for at least 10 years with similarly small climate biases—a prerequisite to wider applicability. With an analysis that combines multiple temporal, spatial, and frequency domain perspectives, we show that ACE faithfully represents the spatiotemporal structure of EAMv2 precipitation and related variables. Finally, we show that a pretrained ACE network is able to adapt to a new global climate model simulation data set with 10 fewer training steps than when starting from random initialization, all while still maintaining low levels of climate bias. Further analysis of these fine‐tuning experiments reveal ACE's intriguing ability to interpolate between distinct global climate models.

Duncan, James P. C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task A Final Report

Task A, also known as HGFrac, examines the fracturing processes that may occur in the Callovo-Oxfordian claystone (COx) in the context of the high-level (HLW) and intermediate-level long-lived (ILW-LL) radioactive waste repository in France. Understanding these processes and improving numerical models to reproduce them will aid in the design, optimization, and safety of the repository. Heat and gas fracturing are studied in two independent subtasks following a stepwise approach: laboratory tests/benchmark exercises, in-situ experiment, and finally, an application case. The in-situ heater experiment aimed to thermally induce a hydraulic fracture; temperature and pore pressure were monitored to detect any evidence of fracturing. The in-situ gas injection experiment aimed to study the effect of the stress orientation and gas injection kinetics on the gas fracturing process. The occurrence of fracturing was monitored by gas pressure measured in the injection interval. In both experiments, the excavation-induced fracture network around the heater/injection boreholes played an important role in the reduction of the compressive stress state, leading to both a tensile and shear failure response of the COx. During the first two years of the project, the research teams working on each task developed and/or proposed numerical approaches for reproducing the occurrence of fracturing in the in-situ experiments. The failure criteria were defined by reproducing the measurements from laboratory extension tests for the heat fracturing subtask. In the gas fracturing subtask, their approaches were used for simulating several benchmark exercises, and an inter-comparison between models was carried out. In both tasks, the developed approaches were compared with a simplified approach considering poro-elasticity for the mechanical behaviour of the COx. Most of the developed approaches are based on a continuous medium that takes into account variations in hydraulic properties due to mechanical degradation, such as plastic deformation or damage. Other approaches implicitly modelled weak planes or embedded discontinuities to reproduce fracture propagation. The potential for fracture initiation was also studied through of a discrete approach. In the second half of the project, the research teams mainly focused on interpretative modelling of two in-situ experiments and a blind prediction exercise to test their respective approaches. The models developed by the research teams were also applied at the repository scale to evaluate fracture initiation in a case study under vi unfavourable conditions, particularly in terms of spacing between High-Level Waste cells. The results showed that the poro-elasticity approach could be an efficient tool for understanding the main processes occurring in the COx. One example is the explicit representation of the excavation-induced fracture network around the boreholes, which yielded acceptable results compared to the measurement data. However, advanced approaches were needed to evaluate the potential increase of the excavation-induced fracture network extend and better understand fracture initiation. The stress analyses carried out by the teams revealed that hydraulic boundary conditions had a strong impact on fracture initiation in the heater experiment. Furthermore, in most cases, the results required higher pore pressure increments to reach fracturing than those measured in the experiment. This implies that the measurements may have been biased by the packer’s capacity to fully isolate the piezometric chambers, leading to lower pressures. On the contrary, there was no agreement on the fracturing mode, as some reported either shear or tensile fracturing, while others reported a combination of the two modes. In the case of gas fracturing, the research teams were limited to the comparison of a single point, which complicated their task. Nonetheless, the numerical results were able to reproduce the measurements and capture processes such as longitudinal gas flow through the excavation-induced fracture network, as suggested by some evidence in the observation piezometric chambers. The numerical models also agreed with the measurements in the sense of higher probability of developing along the injection borehole than radially towards the sound rock. The approaches developed by the research teams showed that they are capable of analysing and reproducing fracture initiation in the COx. However, areas of future work should focus on the fracture propagation and fracture aperture, which were out of the scope of this task. To this end, additional data must be gathered for the parameter characterisation and validation of the numerical models. Nonetheless, various approaches showed promising results as they were able to reproduce fracture development under certain conditions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-physics melt pool modeling and process optimization for laser direct energy deposition of Nb-based refractory C103: Defect formation, geometric precision, and process mapping

Recent developments in additive manufacturing (AM) technology have reignited interest in the fabrication of the Nb-based refractory C103 alloy offering solutions to the challenges posed by traditional manufacturing methods. However, the limited numerical and experimental studies on laser direct energy deposition (DED) of C103 have hindered the understanding of the relationships between process parameters and build quality. This has made it challenging to consistently produce parts with the desired quality and microstructure suitable for critical applications. In this study, we focus on optimizing the laser DED process for C103 by employing a hybrid approach that combines experimental techniques and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). This approach facilitates the development of process maps for defect detection and geometric precision. To achieve this, multi-layer C103 samples were fabricated using laser DED under various process parameters, enabling the creation of a process map for defect detection. Additionally, a multi-physics, multiphase simulation framework was developed within a high-performance computing (HPC) environment to establish process maps for geometric precision. Using these process maps, printability windows were identified for achieving both the desired geometric accuracy and defect-free prints. It was observed that prints with a power-to-velocity (P/V) ratio close to unity resulted in defect-free outcomes. This study provides a foundation for reducing design lead time and rejected parts, ultimately optimizing the laser DED process for C103.

Defect formation and geometric precision↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Optimization-Based Coupling of Reduced Order Models with an Efficient Reduced Adjoint Basis Generation Approach

Optimization-based coupling (OBC) is an attractive alternative to traditional Lagrange multiplier approaches in multiple modeling and simulation contexts. However, application of OBC to time-dependent problems has been hindered by the computational cost of finding the stationary points of the associated Lagrangian, which requires primal and adjoint solves. This issue can be mitigated by using OBC in conjunction with computationally efficient reduced order models (ROMs). To demonstrate the potential of this combination, in this paper, we develop an optimization-based ROM-ROM coupling for a transient advection-diffusion transmission problem. We pursue the “optimize-then-reduce” path toward solving the minimization problem at each time step and solve reduced space adjoint system of equations, where the main challenge in this formulation is the generation of adjoint snapshots and reduced bases for the adjoint systems required by the optimizer. One of the main contributions of the paper is a new technique for an efficient adjoint snapshot collection for gradient-based optimizers in the context of optimization-based ROM-ROM couplings. In conclusion, we present numerical studies demonstrating the accuracy of the approach along with comparison between various approaches for selecting a reduced order basis for the adjoint systems, including decay of snapshot energy, average iteration counts, and timings.

coupled problems↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of the Effect of 2 at. % Additions of Nb and Ta on the 1100 °C Oxidation Behavior of Ni-6Al-(4,6,8) Cr Model Alloys

To continue improving alloy performance in harsh service environments, the development of alumina-forming nickel-based superalloys is essential. Current generations of these alloys heavily rely on the addition of refractory elements to enhance their mechanical properties at high temperatures; however, a systematic understanding of how such additions affect the overall oxidation behavior is still not well established, particularly from the standpoint of predicting the transition from internal to external alumina formation. The present work seeks to better understand the intrinsic effects that common minor additions of Ta and Nb have on the oxidation behavior of alumina-scale-forming γ-Ni model alloys. By combining a novel simulation approach with high-temperature oxidation experiments and advanced characterization techniques, the present study provides insightful details on the differing effects that 2 at. % addition of Ta and Nb have on the alumina scale formation of Ni-based alloys during 1100 °C oxidation.

Rodriguez, Rafael↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of a Test-Bed for Testing and Refining EarthEn’s Supercritical CO 2 Based Energy Storage System

EarthEn’s energy storage concept leverages supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) as a working fluid and relies on compact, high-performance components operating at elevated pressures and temperatures. To accelerate component development and reduce technical risk prior to larger-scale demonstrations, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) developed a 100 kW-scale sCO 2 test-bed under a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement with EarthEn (CRADA NO. NFE-24-10050). The objective of the work was to design and construct a flexible experimental facility capable of reproducing key thermodynamic state points and heat-transfer conditions relevant to EarthEn’s thermal energy storage (TES) cycle, with particular emphasis on enabling development and evaluation of next-generation heat exchangers and TES concepts. The test-bed consists of a closed-loop sCO 2 circulation system housed within an open-topped enclosure. In its as-installed configuration, dense-phase sCO 2 is recirculated through a printed circuit recuperator, an electrically heated section, a throttling device used to simulate turbine expansion, and a water-cooled printed circuit heat exchanger that rejects heat to the building chilled-water system before returning to the pump. The pump is driven by a variable frequency drive, enabling controlled adjustment of flow and operating point. A comprehensive instrumentation suite was integrated to support both safe operation and high-quality data collection. Installed sensors include Coriolis flow meters for sCO 2 flow rate and density, resistance temperature detectors and thermocouples distributed throughout the loop (including the heated section and key heat exchanger ports), and pressure transducers for absolute and differential pressure measurements. The facility was designed to support high-pressure (19 MPa nominal) and high-temperature (575°C nominal) operation with credited overpressure protection provided by a rupture disk. Nominal operating conditions were selected to support 100 kW-class testing while maintaining flexibility for non-heated and heated shakedown, control development, and future integration of advanced TES test sections. In parallel with facility development, a system-level thermal-hydraulic model was created using Modelica-based tools to support component sizing, anticipate performance over targeted test conditions, and establish a framework for future model calibration against experimental data. At the conclusion of the project performance period, the facility was in final assembly, and the pressure boundary was nearly completed. However, several practical challenges associated with high-pressure/high-temperature systems and specialized component procurement impacted schedule and prevented initial pump-driven operation and full commissioning within the available resources. This report documents the as-built design, operating capabilities, and instrumentation, and it summarizes key lessons learned related to heater fabrication and testing, first-of-a-kind assembly factors, specialty flange supply constraints, and fill pump corrective actions. Finally, it outlines a phased plan for future commissioning and experimental campaigns, including control and instrumentation shakedown, heater characterization, model calibration, and testing at state points representative of EarthEn’s TES cycle.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving Grid Awareness by Empowering Utilities with Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence

Gap filling time series data typically depends on linear interpolation. More recently gap filling advancements include machine learning techniques. However, none leverage advanced learning approach that uses cohort training or a neighborhood informed approach, which is described in this report. The report also describes a physics informed approach using Reduced Order Models (ROM). There are several methods to capture the nature of the detailed system in aggregated models, however there is a trade-off for these methods developed for multiple applications. These methods have specific requirements and applications that includes consideration of dynamics or covering a larger range of operating conditions, etc. The various methods of aggregation are: 1) Thevenin equivalents for downstream networks 2) Equivalent feeder representation to capture downstream network losses accurately 3) Structured reduced order models for dynamics 4) System identification-based ROM (abstract dynamical model) Methods described in items 1 and 2 above are ideal for steady-state models and useful for this application. Of these two methods, based on the data availability, the targeted application, the reduced order model that is proposed to be developed is the equivalent feeder model representation. This includes a structure of the reduced order model whose parameters can be determined by the system load and losses with the meter measurements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

ELM2.1-XGBfire1.0: improving wildfire prediction by integrating a machine learning fire model in a land surface model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth system models (ESMs). Alternatively, fire models based on machine learning (ML), which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0) that integrates an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran–C–Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001–2019, the ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. The ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 has proven to be a new tool for studying vegetation–fire interactions and, more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate–fire feedback, working as an active component of E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Brittle failure analysis and modeling of high-burnup PWR fuel cladding alloys

The aim of this research is the development of methods for predicting mechanical behavior and identification of limiting conditions to prevent brittle failure of high-burnup (HBU) pressure water reactor (PWR) fuel cladding alloys. A finite element (FE) model of the ring compression test (RCT) was created to analyze the failure behavior of zirconium-based alloys with radial hydrides during the RCT. An elastic-plastic material model describes the zirconium alloy. The stress-strain curve needed for the elastic-plastic material model was derived by inverse finite element analyses. Cohesive zone modeling is used to reproduce sudden load drops during RCT loading. Based on the failure mechanism in non-irradiated ZIRLO (R) claddings, a micro-mechanical model was developed that distinguishes between brittle failure along hydrides and ductile failure of the zirconium matrix. Two different cohesive laws representing these types of failure are present in the same cohesive interface. The key differences between these constitutive laws are the cohesive strength, the stress at which damage initiates, and the cohesive energy, which is the damage energy dissipated by the cohesive zone. Statistically generated matrix-hydride distributions were mapped onto the cohesive elements and simulations with focus on the first load drop were performed. Computational results are in good agreement with the RCT results conducted on high-burnup M5 (R) samples. It could be shown that crack initiation and propagation strongly depend on the specific configuration of hydrides and matrix material in the fracture area.

Simbruner, Kai↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computationally efficient models for aqueous organic redox flow batteries

The rising usage of intermittent energy has garnered the need for large scale energy storage systems. Redox flow batteries (RFB) based energy storage system shows promising potential. Numerical simulations and machine learning approaches have been widely used to study RFB performance. The development of autonomous material discovery framework and digital twin of energy storage system usually needs to query cell performance through fast response models. In this study, two computationally efficient models are introduced: a physics-based analytical flow battery model (EZBattery), and a machine learning operator model (Deep Operator Network, denoted by DeepONet). Both models can provide cell performance near instantly, and prediction accuracy was systematically examined on an application of evaluating the performances of a 780 cm 2 aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB), using potential anolyte candidates in dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based family of organic materials. A validated computationally expansive 3-dimensional multi-physics finite element model by COMSOL was used as the ground truth and provided the training data set for the DeepONet. 1280 samples were generated with 10 properties to mimic the different possible anolyte candidates, and the cell performances were evaluated under 10 different combined operating conditions. The accuracy comparisons for the two computationally efficient models show that both models can provide comparable accuracy in predicting cell charging/discharging voltage curves. DeepONet can provide slightly higher overall accuracy than EZBattery with faster calculation speed, but highly relies on the training dataset. EZBattery does not need a training dataset and can provide interpretable physics-based explanations of the results, while being more flexible to adjust to adapt any different cell designs, flow battery architectures, and electrolyte materials.

Analytical model↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic parametric skeletal dosimetry model for humans: Pediatric and adult computational skeleton phantoms for internal bone marrow dosimetry

Currently, computational phantoms that simulate skeletal tissues are used in active red bone marrow (AM) internal dosimetry. Up-to-date reference computational phantoms recommended by the ICRP are based on the analysis of CT-images of cadavers. Such phantoms have significant disadvantages. One disadvantage is that the assessment of uncertainty due to the population variability of skeleton dimensions and microstructure results from the limited availability of autopsy material. Another disadvantage is the simplified modelling of cortical layer and bone microarchitecture. A method of stochastic parametric skeletal dosimetry modelling of the bone structures – SPSD modelling – has been developed as an alternative to the ICRP reference phantoms. In the framework of this approach, skeletal phantom parameters are evaluated based on extensively reviewed results of published measurements of real bones. The SPSD approach allows for the assessment of both population-average values and their variability. SPSD-phantoms of the skeleton are modelled in voxel representation. They consist of smaller phantoms of the bone sites – segments – described by simple geometric shapes with uniform microarchitecture parameters. Such segmentation makes it possible to account for non-homogeneous skeletal microarchitecture and to model the bone structure with the required voxel resolution to elaborate suitable skeletal phantoms. The current study presents the parameters of the SPSD skeletal phantoms for the following age-groups: newborn, 1-year-old, 5-year-old, 10-year-old, 15-year-old (male and female), and adult (male and female). This skeletal phantom can be used for dosimetry as an alternative to available reference phantoms for bone-seeking radionuclides. The above-mentioned age- and sex-specific skeletal phantoms are comprised of 289 unique segments. The characteristics of the SPSD phantoms do not contradict published data and are in good agreement with the measurement results of real bones.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Production of Germanium and Gallium Concentrates for Industrial Processes

A conceptual design of a process to produce germanium and gallium metal from mixed rare earth concentrates (consisting of oxides or carbonates) (MREC) produced from lignite carbon-ore was developed. The design was based on past work associated with the recovery of Ge from carbon-ore ash, modeling of the behavior of Ge and Ga in pyrometallurgical processes, and laboratory testing of the potential recovery of Ge and Ga from MREC. A teaming plan was developed that encompasses the entire supply chain that consisted of the Ge and Ga-rich carbon-ore resource, MREC pilot scale concentrate producer, MREC processing facility to produce Ge/Ga concentrates, refining of Ge and Ga concentrates to produce high purity metals (99.999+ purity), and Ge/Ga end users. A research plan was developed to transition the Ge and Ga separation from MREC, concentrating, and refining technology from a conceptual design to commercial scale. A technical and economic assessment of the conceptual design indicated that MREC derived from the UND process can produce 90 to 99% pure Ge and Ga concentrates at >20% lower costs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep-learning-based domain adaptation for cavity fault prediction at Jefferson Laboratory

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities are the core components of the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab, providing high-power electron beams for nuclear physics experiments. The facility comprises 418 SRF cavities, and any fault in these cavities can lead to interruptions in the electron beam supply. Cavity faults are the leading cause of beam trips in CEBAF. Predicting and mitigating those faults before onset can help maintain normal operation. Existing models face challenges in distinguishing between normal and fault signals when changes occur in the underlying time-series data, from changes in control software, operational parameters, or the environment. This work proposes a deep learning domain adaptation model that leverages transfer learning to address fault prediction challenges by improving accuracy. The model is trained and fine-tuned using a dataset collected for faulty and normal operation using a data acquisition system in CEBAF. Our deep learning-based domain adaptation model achieves a prediction accuracy of 89.61% of the fault and normal signals. The developed model effectively predicts normal running signals compared to the baseline approach without domain adaptation. This capacity is essential for the fault prediction task in the CEBAF because of heavily imbalanced data containing vast amounts of normal signals. The model performs well for predicting faults several hundred milliseconds before the fault onset compared to other models where no adaptation is applied. Incorporating deep learning-based domain adaptation techniques will significantly improve the fault prediction performance.

Rahman, Md Monibor [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, V↗
DOE OSTI2025

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data

Growing vaccine hesitancy is contributing to the decline in immunization rates for highly contagious, vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. Therefore, there has been a significant interest in understanding how hesitancy is spreading at higher spatio-temporal resolutions, enabling more targeted interventions. Motivated by this, we study the problem of prediction of vaccine hesitancy at the ZIP Code level, referred to as the VaxHesitancy problem. A significant challenge for this problem is the lack of high-resolution data that indicates hesitancy. Here, we develop a hybrid VaxHesSTL framework that combines a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to address the VaxHesitancy problem. The GNN uses a ZIP Code-level network to capture spatial signals from neighboring areas, while the RNN models the temporal dynamics present in the data. We train and evaluate VaxHesSTL using a large dataset, namely the All-Payer Claims Databases (APCD), for Virginia, consisting of insurance claims from over five million individuals for six years. We find that an aggregated contact network or graph, developed from a detailed activity-based population network, plays an important role in the performance of VaxHesSTL, compared to graph models based solely on spatial proximity. Experiments demonstrate that VaxHesSTL outperforms a range of state-of-the-art baselines, which rely solely on historical time series data without accounting for spatial relationships. Since hesitancy data at higher spatial resolution is often unavailable or hard to get, we incorporate an active learning approach with our VaxHesSTL framework to optimize the training set without compromising the prediction performance. We find that hesitancy data for only 18% of ZIP Codes selected by active learning allows us to forecast hesitancy for all the ZIP Codes in the Virginia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced surrogate model for electron-scale turbulence in tokamak pedestals

We derive an advanced surrogate model for predicting turbulent transport at the edge of tokamaks driven by electron temperature gradient (ETG) modes. Our derivation is based on a recently developed sensitivity-driven sparse grid interpolation approach for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis at scale, which informs the set of parameters that define the surrogate model as a scaling law. Our model reveals that ETG-driven electron heat flux is influenced by the safety factor q, electron beta β e and normalized electron Debye length λ D , in addition to well-established parameters such as the electron temperature and density gradients. To assess the trustworthiness of our model's predictions beyond training, we compute prediction intervals using bootstrapping. The surrogate model's predictive power is tested across a wide range of parameter values, including within-distribution testing parameters (to verify our model) as well as out-of-bounds and out-of-distribution testing (to validate the proposed model). Overall, validation efforts show that our model competes well with, or can even outperform, existing scaling laws in predicting ETG-driven transport.

fusion plasma↗