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At least 559 records · Page 31

Assessment of Physical Security Modeling and Simulation in the Vulnerability Assessment Process

This report provides a comprehensive assessment of physical security modeling and simulation tools available for use in the vulnerability assessment (VA) process for nuclear facilities. It outlines the historical evolution of VA methodologies, emphasizing the transition from traditional layer-based approaches to a more holistic framework that integrates detection probabilities directly into combat simulations. The document details the critical components of the VA process, including the characterization of targets, threats, and protective measures, as well as the development of adversary scenarios that reflect both insider and outsider threats. It highlights the importance of performance assurance programs, emphasizing the need for continuous evaluation and testing of security systems to ensure their effectiveness against evolving threats. Additionally, the report discusses the significance of utilizing accredited modeling and simulation tools in accredited areas to accurately represent adversary actions and the corresponding responses of protective forces. By establishing a systematic approach to VA, this document aims to enhance the overall security posture of nuclear facilities, ensuring compliance with regulatory standards while effectively mitigating risks associated with potential adversarial actions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

MODELING AND SIMULATIONS OF DETERIORATED TURBULENT HEAT TRANSFER IN WALL HEATED CYLINDRICAL TUBE

The paper discusses the modeling and simulations of Deteriorated Turbulent Heat Transfer (DTHT) for a wall-heated fluid flows, which can be observed in gas-cooled nuclear power reactors during Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) event due to loss of force circulation flow. The DTHT regime is defined as the deterioration of normal turbulent heat transport due to increase of acceleration and buoyancy forces. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools such as Nek5000 and STAR-CCM+ can help to analyze the DTHT phenomena in reactors for efficient thermal-fluid designs. 3D CFD non-isothermal modeling and simulations were performed in a wall-heated circular tube. The simulation results were verified with two different CFD tools, Nek5000 and STAR-CCM+, and validated with an experimental data. The predicted bulk temperatures were identical in both CFD tools, as expected. Good agreement between simulated results and measured data were obtained for wall temperatures along the tube axis using Nek5000. In STAR-CCM+, the under-predicted wall temperatures were mainly due to higher turbulence in the wall region. In STAR-CCM+, the predicted DTHT was over 48% at outlet when compared to inlet heat transfer values.

deteriorated turbulent heat transfer↗

Thermal Modeling and Simulation of the Packed-bed Thermal Energy Storage Combined with INL Thermal Energy Distribution System

Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Lab (DETAIL) at Idaho National Laboratory is to support experimental demonstration and validation research on Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy System [1]. The Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) is a thermal-hydraulic flow loop in DETAIL with its own dedicated control system to support the integration of co-located multiple experimental systems, where a packed-bed thermal energy storage (TES) is installed as a thermal buffer and storage unit. Among various TES options, the packed-bed TES is adopted in TEDS because it offers a low-cost single-tank thermal storage option compared to the traditional two-tank TES. However, since the TES tank is filled with granular fillers having different thermophysical properties from those of TES tank wall, there is a potential thermo-mechanical issue to be carefully addressed like thermal ratcheting which may pose a significant design concern for the packed-bed TES tank. Thermal ratcheting is a thermomechanical process caused by the repeated rearrangement of granular filler inside a TES tank during continuous thermal cycling operation of the packed-bed TES system. If the thermally induced stress exceeds the yield strength of a TES tank wall, catastrophic consequences may happen like rupture of the TES tank. Thus, it is important to understand the phenomenon to ensure the robust operation of the packed-bed TES tank. Given that thermal ratcheting is caused by complex interaction of thermal transport in the porous bed and solid mechanics, the accurate prediction of transient thermal behavior of the packed-bed TES tank, which is the focus of this paper, is critical to the reliable thermal ratcheting analysis. This paper discusses the numerical modeling, simulation, and validation studies that are ongoing at INL to investigate the transient thermal behavior of the packed-bed TES. Of particular concern is the transient thermal process occurring in the packed-bed TES unit that is operated in conjunction with the INL TEDS. The main goal of this research is three-fold: (i) provide preliminary insights into the transient thermal behavior of the TEDS TES tank, (ii) support the thermal measurement and validation plan for TEDS experiment, and (iii) provide transient thermal boundary conditions to support the reliable thermal ratcheting analysis of the TEDS TES tank. For the transient thermal modeling and analysis, a CFD model was developed, and the validity of the modeling approach was examined via comparing the numerical simulation results with the experimental data obtained from various design characteristics of packed-bed TES tanks. Then, the present modeling method was applied for the transient thermal analysis of the TEDS TES tank, and the results are discussed along with the potential improvement of data acquisition strategy for the future TEDS experiments for more precise validation study.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Using Co-Simulation to Model Interconnect-Scale Power Systems from Loads to Generators

Co-simulation is a modeling technique that allows analysts to combine simulation tools and their corresponding models to exchange data during run-time, allowing the creation of larger and more complex models across heterogeneous domains. HELICS is a co-simulation platform developed over the past six years that has been shown to be effective for these multi-domain analysis. Recently, a HELICS-based analysis was completed where the ERCOT electrical interconnect in the United States was modeled in high detail from bulk power system generation to individual customer loads. This model was used to evaluate a flat-rate and transactive energy tariff with integrated wholesale and retail real-time and day-ahead energy markets. This modeling allows detailed analysis showing how the operations of the power system under these tariffs impact all actors in the power system, from individual customers to bulk power system operators.

co-simulation, HELICS, transactive energy system, ↗

Nuclear Modeling and Simulation Using MOOSE-based Tools

Overview presentation of the variety of modeling and simulation activities for nuclear applications to be presented to visitors (professors and their students) from the United Kingdom. Presentation compiled by listed author with contributions from others at the laboratory. Others are listed within the acknowledgements of the presentation rather than a long list of authors on the title slide.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (NEAMS Waste IPSC): Subcontinuum-scale Verification and Validation Strategy

The objective of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (NEAMS Waste IPSC) is to provide an integrated suite of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities to quantitatively assess the long-term performance of waste forms in the engineered and geologic environments of a radioactive-waste storage facility or disposal repository. Achieving the objective of modeling the performance of a disposal scenario requires describing processes involved in waste form degradation and radionuclide release at the subcontinuum scale, beginning with mechanistic descriptions of chemical reactions and chemical kinetics at the atomic scale, and upscaling into effective, validated constitutive models for input to high-fidelity continuum scale codes for coupled multiphysics simulations of release and transport. Verification and validation (V&V) is required throughout the system to establish evidence-based metrics for the level of confidence in M&S codes and capabilities, including at the subcontiunuum scale and the constitutive models they inform or generate. This Report outlines the nature of the V&V challenge at the subcontinuum scale, an approach to incorporate V&V concepts into subcontinuum scale modeling and simulation (M&S), and a plan to incrementally incorporate effective V&V into subcontinuum scale M&S destined for use in the NEAMS Waste IPSC work flow to meet requirements of quantitative confidence in the constitutive models informed by subcontinuum scale phenomena.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Simulation study of chemo-mechanical impacts of CO 2 injection in morrow b sandstone reservoir

Here, this study investigates the impacts of geomechanical and geochemical changes on carbon storage in a partially depleted oil reservoir, using results from four different coupled simulation models. Models were used to examine the relative importance of storage mechanisms, and how changing reservoir parameters might affect these mechanisms through time. The study uses data from a Morrowan sandstone reservoir in the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas which is currently undergoing CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Partially depleted oil reservoirs such as the FWU offer attractive carbon utilization and/or storage targets because of existing infrastructure and economic benefits from incremental oil recovery as well as tax credits. However, prediction of storage capacity or long-term fluid migration in these fields can be difficult because of the wide variation in formation fluids and operational histories that may have undergone. CO 2 injection can cause complex geomechanical and geochemical responses in a reservoir as a result of interplay between dynamic changes in pore pressure, reservoir temperature, fluid composition, and interactions between formation fluids, CO 2 , and reservoir rock. Thus, multiple coupled numerical simulation models must be developed and used to more precisely understand what CO 2 storage mechanisms are most significant, as well as the long-term fate of the stored CO 2 . Our study used results from hydrodynamic, coupled hydro-geomechanical, coupled hydro-geochemical, and coupled hydro-geomechanical-geochemical models to examine how changes in geomechanical and geochemical properties can impact the injectivity or storage capacity of CO 2 . Models simulated historical field operations and then forward-modeled a water-alternate-gas (WAG) operation for 20 years, followed by a 1000-year post-injection monitoring. The work demonstrates that in this specific reservoir, geomechanical impacts appear to be more significant than any geochemical processes, which showed minimal impact on reservoir properties. Furthermore, these simulation scenarios corroborated other studies showing more than 90% of CO 2 injected are being stored and will remain stored in the reservoir. The study was able to draw on a rich set of data from this currently operational project for the work. Because the Morrow is a widespread oil-bearing reservoir in the midcontinent of the United States and is fairly typical of many sandstone reservoirs elsewhere, the study has significance beyond the boundaries of our field area.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hybrid Communication Architectures for Distributed Smart Grid Applications

Wired and wireless communications both play an important role in the blend of communications technologies necessary to enable future smart grid communications. Hybrid networks exploit independent mediums to extend network coverage and improve performance. However, whereas individual technologies have been applied in simulation networks, as far as we know there is only limited attention that has been paid to the development of a suite of hybrid communication simulation models for the communications system design. Hybrid simulation models are needed to capture the mixed communication technologies and IP address mechanisms in one simulation. To close this gap, we have developed a suite of hybrid communication system simulation models to validate the critical system design criteria for a distributed solar Photovoltaic (PV) communications system, including a single trip latency of 300 ms, throughput of 9.6 Kbps, and packet loss rate of 1%. In conclusion, the results show that three low-power wireless personal area network (LoWPAN)-based hybrid architectures can satisfy three performance metrics that are critical for distributed energy resource communications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Using Discrete Event Simulation to Model Attacker Interactions with Cyber and Physical Security Systems

The number of connections between physical and cyber security systems is rapidly increasing due to centralized control from automated and remotely connected means. As the number of interfaces between systems continues to grow, the interactions and interdependencies between them cannot be ignored. Historically, physical and cyber vulnerability assessments have been performed independently. This independent evaluation omits important aspects of the integrated system, where the impacts resulting from malicious or opportunistic attacks are not easily known or understood. Here, we describe a discrete event simulation model that uses information about integrated physical and cyber security systems, attacker characteristics and simple response rules to identify key safeguards that limit an attacker's likelihood of success. Key features of the proposed model include comprehensive data generation to support a variety of sophisticated analyses, and full parameterization of safeguard performance characteristics and attacker behaviours to evaluate a range of scenarios. Lastly, we also describe the core data requirements and the network of networks that serves as the underlying simulation structure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrated Modeling and Simulation Capability For Full Scale Multi-Physics Simulation and Visualization of Microreactor Concept

Microreactors are small mobile transportable nuclear reactors with thermal power less than 20 MWt that are designed to meet the needs of remote areas, military installations, emergency operations, and disaster relief zones. These reactor are concepts that are intended to be factory-manufacturable, easily transportable, and will allow for semi- or full-autonomous operation. To assist with development of microreactors, modeling and experimentation need to be performed with verification and validation to gain confidence in the models and tools. The objective of this study is apply advanced modeling and simulation capabilities being developed by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program to perform integrated modeling and simulation capability for multiphysics simulation of the microreactor concepts. This activity will provide an opportunity to exercise the codes to provide both gain experience and to provide feedback to the developers.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A software package for modeling and simulating fault graphs

This report describes a novel fault graph modeling language and a simulation tool for executing models specified in the language. The modeling language has three primary features that distinguish it from similar reliability analysis tools. These are (1) a random variable modeling several distinct outcomes of a single fault; (2) chains of faults in which one fault triggers another; and (3) time to fail sampled from probability distributions including positive normal, exponential, Weibull with a minimum, or immediate. These features are motivated by their use in a historical analysis of centrifuge reliability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Numerical simulation of the hot-tail runaway electron production mechanism using CQL3D and comparison with Smith–Verwichte analytical model

Abstract The hot-tail mechanism of runaway electron (RE) production (Harvey et al 2000 Phys. Plasmas 7 4590) is the primary source of RE in the case of rapidly cooling tokamak plasma. Quantifying this mechanism is very important as it can provide most of the post-thermal-quench (TQ) current, or a seed current for the secondary source of RE through the avalanche mechanism. An analytic model which omits pitch-angle scattering is often used in literature for estimating the hot-tail RE density (Smith and Verwichte 2008 Phys. Plasmas 15 072502). In the present study, we use the CQL3D bounce-averaged Fokker–Planck code (Harvey and McCoy 1992 Proc. IAEA Technical Committee Meeting on Advances in Simulation and Modeling of Thermonuclear Plasmas p 527) to test the limits of validity of the model. In particular, we examine the cases of Z = 1 and Z = 18 ions, for sets of different initial temperature, density, electric field and the characteristic time of temperature decay. We show that for Z = 1 plasma, the ratio of RE density computed by CQL3D to that estimated from the model is within 0.6–6.0 in studied cases. For the Z = 18 case, this factor is systematically a much smaller number, typically 0.02–0.6. We suggest a simple correction to the model that narrows down the range of this ratio to 0.3–3.8 in all of the cases, including Z = 1 and Z = 18 plasmas.

Physics↗

Modeling and Simulation for Safeguards [Slides]

The purpose of this talk is to give an overview of the role of modeling and simulation in Safeguards R&D and introduce you to (some of) the tools used. Some definitions are: (1) Modeling - the representation, often mathematical, of a process, concept, or operation of a system, often implemented by a computer program; (2) Simulation - the representation of the behavior or characteristics of one system through the use of another system, especially a computer program designed for the purpose; and (3) Safeguards - the timely detection of diversion of significant quantities of nuclear material. The role of modeling and simulation are: (1) Calculate amounts of material (plant modeling); (2) Calculate signatures of nuclear material etc. (source terms); and (3) Detector performance (radiation transport and detection). Plant modeling software (e.g. FACSIM) gives the flows and amount of material stored at all parts of the process. In safeguards this allow us to calculate the expected uncertainty of the mass and evaluate the expected MUF. We can determine the measurement accuracy required to achieve a certain performance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

TREAT Modeling and Simulation Strategy

This report summarizes a four-phase process used to describe the strategy in developing modeling and simulation software for the Transient Reactor Test Facility. The four phases of this research and development task are identified as (1) full core transient calculations with feedback, (2) experiment modeling, (3) full core plus experiment simulation and (4) quality assurance. The document describes the four phases, the relationship between these research phases, and anticipated needs within each phase.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A strategy for improved computational efficiency of the method of anchored distributions

This paper proposes a strategy for improving the computational efficiency of model inversion using the method of anchored distributions by “bundling” similar model parametrizations in the likelihood function. Inferring the likelihood function typically requires a large number of forward model simulations for each possible model parametrization; as a result, the process is quite expensive. To ease this prohibitive cost, we present an approximation for the likelihood function – called “bundling” – that relaxes the requirement for high quantities of forward model simulations. This approximation redefines the conditional statement of the likelihood function as the probability of sets of similar model parametrizations – “bundles” – replicating field measurements. To evaluate the effectiveness of these modifications, we compare the quality of predictions and computational cost of bundling relative to a baseline method of anchored distributions inversion of three-dimensional flow and transport model parameters. For our synthetic experiment, bundling achieved a 35% reduction in overall computational cost and had a limited negative on predicted probability distributions of the model parameters. Strategies for minimizing error in the bundling approximation, for enforcing similarity amongst the sets of model parametrizations, and for identifying convergence of the likelihood function are also presented.

Bayesian Inversion, SVD, computational efficiency↗

Computer Modeling and Simulation: Increasing Reliability by Disentangling Verification and Validation

Verification and validation (V&V) of computer codes and models used in simulations are two aspects of the scientific practice of high importance that recently have been discussed widely by philosophers of science. While verification is predominantly associated with the correctness of the way a model is represented by a computer code or algorithm, validation more often refers to the model’s relation to the real world and its intended use. Because complex simulations are generally opaque to a practitioner, the Duhem problem can arise with verification and validation due to their entanglement; such an entanglement makes it impossible to distinguish whether a coding error or the model’s general inadequacy to its target should be blamed in the case of a failure. I argue that a clear distinction between computer modeling and simulation has to be made to disentangle verification and validation. Drawing on that distinction, I suggest to associate modeling with verification and simulation, which shares common epistemic strategies with experimentation, with validation. To explain the reasons for their entanglement in practice, I propose a Weberian ideal–typical model of modeling and simulation as roles in practice. I examine an approach to mitigate the Duhem problem for verification and validation that is generally applicable in practice and is based on differences in epistemic strategies and scopes. Based on this analysis, I suggest two strategies to increase the reliability of simulation results, namely, avoiding alterations of verified models at the validation stage as well as performing simulations of the same target system using two or more different models. In response to Winsberg’s claim that verification and validation are entangled I argue that deploying the methodology proposed in this work it is possible to mitigate inseparability of V&V in many if not all domains where modeling and simulation are used.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗