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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2024

Absolute Intercalibration of Spaceborne Microwave Radiometers

Absolute calibration of spaceborne microwave radiometer observations consists of accurate determination of antenna cold space spillover, cross-polarization contamination, and nonlinearity coefficients of the receivers. We deem the GMI sensor to be the most accurate calibrated spaceborne microwave radiometer due to its unique calibration design features and its carefully planned orbit maneuvers. We demonstrate how to transfer the GMI calibration to other spaceborne radiometers, whose operations have sufficient time overlap with GMI. Specifically, we show results for WindSat and AMSR2. The sensor intercalibration is based on brightness temperature matchups between GMI and the other instruments over both open ocean and rainforest scenes. To assess the calibration accuracy, we compare the intercalibrated brightness temperatures with radiative transfer model calculations. In addition, we provide in situ validation results for wind speed and water vapor retrievals from the intercalibrated sensors. The intercalibration methodology allows for the creation of a multidecadal climate data record from passive microwave satellite observations. Significance Statement Creating a long-term climate data record of satellite observations of ocean winds, water vapor, and other variables requires careful and accurate calibration of the various sensors that are used. In particular, it is important to achieve the best possible consistency between the measurements from all the different instruments. This is a challenging task as the configuration and accuracy of these instruments can differ widely. The purpose of our paper is to demonstrate and validate the basic methodology for performing this intercalibration. The backbone of our method is data observed by a well-calibrated sensor that measures the passive microwave emission from Earth’s surface and atmosphere. We show how to transfer its calibration standard to other sensors.

Katherine Wentz↗
DOE OSTI2026

Subpolar North Atlantic Water Mass Transformation and Overturning in Eddying and Non‐Eddying Simulations

Buoyancy forcing in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA) is an important driver of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). To advance understanding of the mechanisms connecting the two processes and their relative importance in sub-basins within the SPNA, we apply the Water Mass Transformation Framework to a matched-pair of forced, ocean-sea ice simulations configured at eddying and non-eddying resolution. Within the first decade of simulation, the non-eddying simulation produces a weak AMOC, ~11 Sv at 26.5 ° N, while the AMOC in the eddying simulation is more realistic and is thus analyzed for comparison. Surface water mass transformation and boundary transport are calculated in both density and temperature–salinity coordinates in three separate deep water formation regions, the Iceland Basin, the Irminger Sea and Labrador Sea, during the first decade of both simulations. We identify strong surface freshening in the Irminger and Labrador seas in the non-eddying simulation during the AMOC decline. This freshening significantly reduces the density of the surface outcrops where surface water mass formation occurs, essentially removing this contribution to deep water formation. Concurrently, boundary transports in these two regions are warmer and saltier in the non-eddying simulation compared to the eddying simulation where the density of surface water mass formation is stable. The warming and salinification of boundary transports in the non-eddying simulation is interpreted as an obstacle to deep water formation. Labrador Sea surface water mass transformation is important, despite its small contribution to buoyancy overturning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Modeling Climate Change in the Absence of Climate Change Data. Editorial Comment

Practitioners of climate change prediction base many of their future climate scenarios on General Circulation Models (GCM's), each model with differing assumptions and parameter requirements. For representing the atmosphere, GCM's typically contain equations for calculating motion of particles, thermodynamics and radiation, and continuity of water vapor. Hydrology and heat balance are usually included for continents, and sea ice and heat balance are included for oceans. The current issue of this journal contains a paper by Van Blarcum et al. (1995) that predicts runoff from nine high-latitude rivers under a doubled CO2 atmosphere. The paper is important since river flow is an indicator variable for climate change. The authors show that precipitation will increase under the imposed perturbations and that owing to higher temperatures earlier in the year that cause the snow pack to melt sooner, runoff will also increase. They base their simulations on output from a GCM coupled with an interesting water routing scheme they have devised. Climate change models have been linked to other models to predict deforestation.

Skiles, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Insights on the Vulnerability of Antarctic Glaciers From the ISMIP6 Ice Sheet Model Ensemble and Associated Uncertainty

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

Hélène Seroussi↗
NASA NTRS2013

Temperature Trends in the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere: Connections with Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Water Vapor and Ozone

Satellite observations and chemistry-climate model experiments are used to understand the zonal structure of tropical lower stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and ozone trends. The warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo-Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal-mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature (hereafter SST) trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. Warming SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the warm pool region have led to enhanced moist heating in the upper troposphere, and in turn to a Gill-like response that extends into the lower stratosphere. The anomalous circulation has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. The radiative impact of these changes in trace gases is smaller than the direct impact of the moist heating. Projected future SSTs appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future SSTs are of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane.

water vapor↗
NASA NTRS2024

Aera-Mip: Emission Pathways, Remaining Budgets, and Carbon Cycle Dynamics Compatible With 1.5 and 2 °C Global Warming Stabilization

While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or pursuing a 1.5 °C level of global warming, the climate modelling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth system models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at the same prescribed global warming levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based on comprehensive ESMs of the carbon emission pathways and budgets needed to meet such agreed warming levels and of the associated climate impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with ESMs to provide such simulations in which all models converge at 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming levels by adjusting their emissions over time. These emission-driven simulations provide a wide range of emission pathways and resulting atmospheric CO 2 projections for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing in the traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios with prescribed greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting the 1.5 °C warming level requires a 40 % (full model range: 7 % to 76 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -forcing-equivalent (CO 2 -fe) emissions from 2025 to 2030, a 98 % (57 % to 127 %) reduction from 2025 to 2050, and a stabilization at 1.0 (−1.7 to 2.9) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward after the 1.5 °C global warming level is reached. Meeting the 2.0 °C warming level requires a 47 % (8 % to 92 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -fe emissions until 2050 and a stabilization at 1.7 (−1.5 to 2.7) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward. The on-average positive emissions under stabilized global temperatures are the result of a decreasing transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 -fe emissions over time under stabilized global warming. This evolution is consistent with a slightly negative zero emissions commitment – initially assumed to be zero – and leads to an increase in the post-2025 CO 2 -fe emission budget by a factor of 2.2 (−0.8 to 6.9) by 2150 for the 1.5 °C warming level and a factor of 1.4 (0.9 to 2.4) for the 2.0 °C warming level compared to its first estimate in 2025. The median CO 2 -only carbon budget by 2150, relative to 2020, is 800 GtCO 2 for the 1.5 °C warming level and 2250 GtCO 2 for the 2.0 °C warming level. These median values exceed the median IPCC AR6 estimates by 60 % for the 1.5 °C warming level and 67 % for 2.0 °C. Some of the differences may be explained by the choice of the mitigation scenario for non-CO 2 radiative agents. Our simulations highlight shifts in carbon uptake dynamics under stabilized temperature, such as a cessation of the carbon sinks in the North Atlantic and in tropical forests. On the other hand, the Southern Ocean remains a carbon sink centuries after temperatures stabilize. Overall, this new type of warming-level-based emission-driven simulation offers a more coherent assessment across climate models and opens up a wide range of possibilities for studying both the carbon cycle and climate impacts, such as extreme events, under climate stabilization.

Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach↗
DOE OSTI2024

Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points

Abstract As climate change continues, the likelihood of passing critical thresholds or tipping points increases. Hence, there is a need to advance the science for detecting such thresholds. In this paper, we assess the needs and opportunities for Earth Observation (EO, here understood to refer to satellite observations) to inform society in responding to the risks associated with ten potential large-scale ocean tipping elements: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Atlantic Subpolar Gyre; Beaufort Gyre; Arctic halocline; Kuroshio Large Meander; deoxygenation; phytoplankton; zooplankton; higher level ecosystems (including fisheries); and marine biodiversity. We review current scientific understanding and identify specific EO and related modelling needs for each of these tipping elements. We draw out some generic points that apply across several of the elements. These common points include the importance of maintaining long-term, consistent time series; the need to combine EO data consistently with in situ data types (including subsurface), for example through data assimilation; and the need to reduce or work with current mismatches in resolution (in both directions) between climate models and EO datasets. Our analysis shows that developing EO, modelling and prediction systems together, with understanding of the strengths and limitations of each, provides many promising paths towards monitoring and early warning systems for tipping, and towards the development of the next generation of climate models.

Wood, Richard A. (ORCID:0000000239609513)↗
NASA NTRS2008

Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

Chung, Serena H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Burning conditions and transportation pathways determine biomass-burning aerosol properties in the Ascension Island marine boundary layer

Abstract. African biomass-burning aerosol (BBA) in the southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA) marine boundary layer (MBL) is an important contributor to Earth's radiation budget, yet its representation remains poorly constrained in regional and global climate models. Data from the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) field campaign on Ascension Island (7.95° S, 14.36° W) provide insight into how burning conditions, fuel type, transport pathways, and atmospheric processing affect the chemical, microphysical, and optical properties of BBA between June and September 2017. A total of 10 individual plume events characterize the seasonal evolution of the BBA properties. Early-season inefficient fires, determined by low refractory black carbon to above-background carbon monoxide mixing ratios (rBC : ΔCO), led to enhanced concentrations of organic- and sulfate-rich aerosols. Mid-season efficient fires, determined by higher rBC : ΔCO values, led to rBC-enriched BBA. A mix of efficient and inefficient fires later in the season resulted in conflicting BBA properties. Prolonged transport (∼ 10 d) through the MBL and lower free troposphere (FT) facilitated chemical and aqueous-phase processing, which led to a reduction in organic aerosol mass concentrations. This resulted in lower organic aerosol (OA) to rBC (OA : rBC) mass ratios (2–5) in the MBL compared to higher values (5–15) in the nearby FT. These atmospheric and cloud oxidation processes yield more light-absorbing BBA and explain the notably low single-scattering albedo at 530 nm (SSA530) values (< 0.80) observed in the MBL. This study establishes a robust correlation between SSA530 and OA : rBC across the MBL and FT, underscoring the dependency of optical properties on chemical composition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Burning conditions and transportation pathways determine biomass-burning aerosol properties in the Ascension Island marine boundary layer

African biomass-burning aerosol (BBA) in the southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA) marine boundary layer (MBL) is an important contributor to Earth’s radiation budget yet its representation remains poorly constrained in regional and global climate models. Data from the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) field campaign on Ascension Island (-7.95° N, -14.36° E) detail how fire source regions (burning conditions and fuel type), transport pathways, and longer-term chemical processing affect the chemical, microphysical, and optical properties of the BBA in the remote MBL between June and September of 2017. Ten individual plume events characterize the seasonal evolution of BBA characteristics. Inefficient burning conditions, determined by the mass ratio of refractory black carbon to above-background carbon monoxide (rBC:ΔCO), enhance organic- and sulfate-rich aerosol concentrations in June–July. In contrast, the heart of the burning season exhibited higher rBC:ΔCO values indicative of efficient burning conditions, correlating with more rBC-enriched BBA. Toward the end of the burning season, a mix of burning conditions results in increased variation of the BBA properties. The BBA transit to Ascension Island was predominantly through slow-moving pathways in the MBL and lower free troposphere (FT), facilitating prolonged chemical transformations through heterogeneous and aqueous phase processes. Heterogeneous oxidation can persist for up to 10 days, resulting in a considerable decrease in organic aerosol (OA) mass. OA to rBC mass ratios (OA:rBC) in the MBL between 2 and 5 contrast to higher values of 5 to 15 observed in the nearby FT. Conversely, early-season aqueous-phase processes primarily contributed to aerosol oxidation and some aerosol production, but not appreciable aerosol removal. These two chemical processes yield more light-absorbing BBA in the MBL than in the FT and explain the notably low scattering albedo at 530 nm (SSA 530 ) values (< 0.80) at Ascension Island. This study establishes a robust correlation between SSA 530 and OA:rBC across both MBL and FT, underscoring the dependency of optical properties on chemical composition. These findings highlight how the interplay between chemical composition and atmospheric processing can be improved in global and regional climate models. Questions remain on the mixing of aerosols with different pathway histories, and on what accounts for the doubling of the mass absorption coefficient in the boundary layer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Climate studies with a multilayer energy balance model. III - Climatic impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols

A multilayer energy balance model is applied in an examination of the sensitivity of climate to stratospheric aerosols induced by volcanic eruptions. Zonally and annually averaged quantities are considered, with ocean and land temperatures computed separately and the atmosphere below the 200 mb level divided into eight layers of 24 sublayers each. The aerosol is assumed to form in the 150-200 mb range. Aerosol parameters for radiative transfer calculations are reflection in the solar spectral region and absorption in the solar and IR regions. A 75 percent aqueous solution of sulfuric acid is assumed for the aerosols. The sensitivity of the hemispherically averaged surface temperature is enhanced 37 percent, with a 20 percent uncertainty, when the thermal IR radiation is excluded. The solar radiation enhances the surface temperatures to a higher degree than the thermal radiation. The maximum response to the evenly distributed aerosols is in the 60-70 deg N latitudes and propagates, weakening, to lower latitudes.

Chou, M.-D.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of earth and Venus

For the case of fully moisture-saturated and cloud-free conditions, the present one-dimensional climate model for the response of an earthlike atmosphere to large solar flux increases notes the critical solar flux at which runaway greenhouse (total evaporation of oceans) occurs to be 1.4 times the present flux at the earth's orbit, almost independently of the CO2 content of the atmophere. The value is, however, sensitive to the H2O absorption coefficient in the 8-12 micron window. Venus oceans may have been lost early on due to rapid water vapor photodissociation, followed by hydrogen escape into space.

Kasting, James F.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Version 2 Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF2)

Information on the turbulent fluxes of momentum, moisture, and heat at the air-sea interface is essential in improving model simulations of climate variations and in climate studies. We have derived a 13.5-year (July 1987-December 2000) dataset of daily surface turbulent fluxes over global oceans from the Special Sensor Mcrowave/Imager (SSM/I) radiance measurements. This dataset, version 2 Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF2), has a spatial resolution of 1 degree x 1 degree latitude-longitude and a temporal resolution of 1 day. Turbulent fluxes are derived from the SSM/I surface winds and surface air humidity, as well as the 2-m air and sea surface temperatures (SST) of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, using a bulk aerodynamic algorithm based on the surface layer similarity theory.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Review of Current Investigations of Urban-Induced Rainfall and Recommendations for the Future

Precipitation is a key link in the global water cycle and a proxy for changing climate; therefore proper assessment of the urban environment s impact on precipitation (land use, aerosols, thermal properties) will be increasingly important in ongoing climate diagnostics and prediction, Global Water and Energy Cycle (GWEC) analysis and modeling, weather forecasting, freshwater resource management, urban planning-design and land-atmosphere-ocean interface processes. These facts are particularly critical if current projections for global urban growth are accurate. The goal of this paper is to provide a concise review of recent (1990-present) studies related to how the urban environment affects precipitation. In addition to providing a synopsis of current work, recent findings are placed in context with historical investigations such as METROMEX studies. Both observational and modeling studies of urban-induced rainfall are discussed. Additionally, a discussion of the relative roles of urban dynamic and microphysical (e.g. aerosol) processes is presented. The paper closes with a set of recommendations for what observations and capabilities are needed in the future to advance our understanding of the processes.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗
NASA NTRS2018

Effect of Gravity Waves from Small Islands in the Southern Ocean on the Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation

The effect of small islands in the Southern Ocean on the atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is considered with a series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model in which the gravity wave stress generated by these islands is increased to resemble observed values. The enhanced gravity wave drag leads to a 2 K warming of the springtime polar stratosphere, partially ameliorating biases in this region. Resolved wave drag declines in the stratospheric region in which the added orographic gravity waves deposit their momentum, such that changes in gravity waves are partially compensated by changes in resolved waves, though resolved wave drag increases further poleward. The orographic drag from these islands has impacts for surface climate, as biases in tropospheric jet position are also partially ameliorated. These results suggest that these small islands are likely contributing to the missing drag near 60 degrees S in the upper stratosphere evident in many data assimilation products.

chemistry-climate models↗
NASA NTRS2021

Reduced El NiñO Variability in the Mid-Pliocene According to the Pliomip2 Ensemble

The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period during which atmospheric CO 2 levels were similar to recent historical values (∼400 ppm). Several proxy reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene show highly reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicating an El Niño-like mean state. However, past modelling studies do not show these highly reduced gradients. Efforts to understand mid-Pliocene climate dynamics have led to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Results from the first phase (PlioMIP1) showed clear El Niño variability (albeit significantly reduced) and did not show the greatly reduced time-mean zonal SST gradient suggested by some of the proxies. In this work, we study El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, which consists of additional global coupled climate models and updated boundary conditions compared to PlioMIP1. We quantify ENSO amplitude, period, spatial structure and “flavour”, as well as the tropical Pacific annual mean state in mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial simulations. Results show a reduced ENSO amplitude in the model-ensemble mean (−24 %) with respect to the pre-industrial, with 15 out of 17 individual models showing such a reduction. Furthermore, the spectral power of this variability considerably decreases in the 3–4-year band. The spatial structure of the dominant empirical orthogonal function shows no particular change in the patterns of tropical Pacific variability in the model-ensemble mean, compared to the pre-industrial. Although the time-mean zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific decreases for 14 out of 17 models (0.2 ∘C reduction in the ensemble mean), there does not seem to be a correlation with the decrease in ENSO amplitude. The models showing the most “El Niño-like” mean state changes show a similar ENSO amplitude to that in the pre-industrial reference, while models showing more “La Niña-like” mean state changes generally show a large reduction in ENSO variability. The PlioMIP2 results show a reasonable agreement with both time-mean proxies indicating a reduced zonal SST gradient and reconstructions indicating a reduced, or similar, ENSO variability.

mid-Pliocene warm period↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observations of high-time-resolution and size-resolved aerosol chemical composition and microphysics in the central Arctic: implications for climate-relevant particle properties

Abstract. Aerosols play a critical role in the Arctic's radiative balance, influencing solar radiation and cloud formation. Limited observations in the central Arctic leave gaps in understanding aerosol dynamics year-round, affecting model predictions of climate-relevant aerosol properties. Here, we present the first annual high-time-resolution observations of submicron aerosol chemical composition in the central Arctic during the Arctic Ocean 2018 (AO2018) and the 2019–2020 Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expeditions. Seasonal variations in the aerosol mass concentrations and chemical composition in the central Arctic were found to be driven by typical Arctic seasonal regimes and resemble those of pan-Arctic land-based stations. Organic aerosols dominated the pristine summer, while anthropogenic sulfate prevailed in autumn and spring under haze conditions. Ammonium, which impacts aerosol acidity, was consistently less abundant, relative to sulfate, in the central Arctic compared to lower latitudes of the Arctic. Cyclonic (storm) activity was found to have a significant influence on aerosol variability by enhancing emissions from local sources and the transport of remote aerosol. Local wind-generated particles contributed up to 80 % (20 %) of the cloud condensation nuclei population in autumn (spring). While the analysis presented herein provides the current central Arctic aerosol baseline, which will serve to improve climate model predictions in the region, it also underscores the importance of integrating short-timescale processes, such as seasonal wind-driven aerosol sources from blowing snow and open leads/ocean in model simulations. This is particularly important, given the decline in mid-latitude anthropogenic emissions and the increase in local ones.

Heutte, Benjamin (ORCID:0000000173727460)↗
NASA NTRS2024

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Atmospheric Rivers: A Modeling Perspective

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a crucial role in the poleward transport of water vapor, and the AR-associated precipitation is a critical component of global water supplies, making it critical that we understand how ARs may change in the future. To approach this issue, integrations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model ModelE version 2.1 (GISSE2.1) are employed. Multiple configurations of the model simulating different climates are analyzed: (1) the last-glacial maximum; (2) present day; (3) the end of the 21st century. The thermodynamic and dynamic components of changes to AR frequency are analyzed using a decomposition method. This method utilizes differences in distinct AR seasonal climatology frequencies derived from various vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) thresholds to resolve AR frequency into its components. Global mean state changes in poleward AR frequency for different climates are dominated by precipitable water vapor (PWV) changes. A set of idealized cold and warm climates in which present day sea surface temperatures are uniformly changed are considered for a targeted analysis of the south Pacific Ocean basin. For this analysis, frequency and distribution of AR events in the model runs are analyzed by comparing them to changes in the jet stream as well as the Eulerian storm tracks and low-level baroclinicity. Latitudinal shifts in the ARs in the south Pacific Ocean basin using our integrations are not as tightly coupled to these two storm-related climatological metrics in the midlatitudes but fare better on the poleward side of the storm tracks.

Atmospheric rivers↗