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DOE OSTI2019

Arctic Sea Ice Volume Variability over 1901–2010: A Model-Based Reconstruction

PIOMAS-20C, an Arctic sea ice reconstruction for 1901–2010, is produced by forcing the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) with ERA-20C atmospheric data. ERA-20C performance over Arctic sea ice is assessed by comparisons with measurements and data from other reanalyses. ERA-20C performs similarly with respect to the annual cycle of downwelling radiation, air temperature, and wind speed compared to reanalyses with more extensive data assimilation such as ERA-Interim and MERRA. PIOMAS-20C sea ice thickness and volume are then compared with in situ and aircraft remote sensing observations for the period of ~1950–2010. Error statistics are similar to those for PIOMAS. We compare the magnitude and patterns of sea ice variability between the first half of the twentieth century (1901–40) and the more recent period (1980–2010), both marked by sea ice decline in the Arctic. The first period contains the so-called early-twentieth-century warming (ETCW; ~1920–40) during which the Atlantic sector saw a significant decline in sea ice volume, but the Pacific sector did not. The sea ice decline over the 1979–2010 period is pan-Arctic and 6 times larger than the net decline during the 1901–40 period. Sea ice volume trends reconstructed solely from surface temperature anomalies are smaller than PIOMAS-20C, suggesting that mechanisms other than warming, such as changes in ice motion and deformation, played a significant role in determining sea ice volume trends during both periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

Bauman, William H., III↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cyclic Background Noise Variations on Infrasound Microbarometers From Micrometeorology and Human Activity

Infrasound microbarometers deployed on the Earth's surface capture pressure fluctuations and acoustic signatures, revealing trends in surface wind speed and cycles in ambient sound. Previous studies investigated wind noise trends at quarter day resolution and urban acoustic background variations on hourly to weekly scales. Cyclic variations at sub-hourly resolution over local distances remain unaddressed. We show that topography-driven micrometeorology impacts diurnal background noise levels below 10 Hz. Anthropogenic noise occurs over daily and weekly cycles, with inputs from traffic, ventilation systems, and power lines. These noise patterns vary at stations spaced less than a kilometer apart. We observe these phenomena by using a circular spectrogram to visualize frequency trends over a periodic temporal scale. This study demonstrates that infrasound microbarometer deployments can highlight localized wind patterns and time scales of human activity. The results suggest that future microbarometer deployments may benefit from site noise surveys before selecting final sensor locations.

Malach, Amrit Kaur [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA),↗

DOE OSTI2016

Controls on aggradation and incision in the NE Negev, Israel, since the middle Pleistocene

Here, we investigated the mid-Pleistocene to recent aggradation-incision pattern of two drainage systems (Nahal Peres and Nahal Tahmas) in the hyperarid north eastern Negev desert, southern Israel. Although these drainage systems drain into the tectonically active Dead Sea basin, lake level fluctuations cannot account for the aggradation-incision pattern as bedrock knickpoints disconnect the investigated parts of these drainage systems from base level influence. We applied geomorphic mapping, soil stratigraphy, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and cosmogenic (in situ 10 Be) exposure dating to reconstruct cycles of aggradation and incision of alluvial terraces and to study their temporal association with regional periods of humidity and aridity and global glacial-interglacial cycles. The spatial and temporal relationships between the alluvial units suggest changes in the drainage system behavior since the middle Pleistocene, and show a pattern in which prolonged periods of sediment aggradation alternated with short periods of rapid and intense degradation through erosion and incision into sediment and bedrock. We obtain ages for several Pleistocene-Holocene periods of incision: ~ 1.1 Ma, ~ 300 ka, ~ 120 ka, ~ 20 ka, ~ 12 ka and ~ 2 ka. Although broadly synchronous, the Nahal Peres and Nahal Tahmas systems exhibit temporal differences in aggradation and incision.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cavity Swelling in Irradiated Materials

Cavity swelling, due to three-dimensional clustering of vacancies, is an undesirable isotropic volume expansion of materials under irradiation. This phenomenon occurs above stage-III recovery temperature where vacancies are mobile, between ~0.3–0.6 Tm where Tm is the absolute melting temperature. The primary mechanism for cavity swelling is “dislocation bias”, i.e., preferential absorption of interstitials by network dislocations, causing a vacancy supersaturation. Cavity swelling is highly temperature dependent and typically follows a bell-shaped curve with peak swelling occurring at an intermediate temperature. With increasing temperature, cavity size increases, and number density decreases logarithmically. With increasing dose, cavity swelling increases, but follows a hockey-stick type pattern, characterized by a low-swelling transient incubation period and then a steady-state regime. The incubation period, dominant in cavity nucleation, is dependent upon material’s chemistry and irradiation conditions such as dose rate/temperature. Cavity swelling increases linearly with dose in the steady-state regime, that is independent of chemistry and dose rate. This regime is dominated by cavity growth. Transmutation gases like He enhance cavity nucleation such that an early onset of cavity formation occurs. However, swelling magnitudes can be either increased or suppressed when He is present. Results in austenitic steels and Cu indicate that cavity swelling peaks at intermediate He/dpa ratios of ~10 appm He/dpa. The most effective method to mitigate cavity swelling is by increasing the fixed point-defect sink density, by promoting precipitation or dispersion strengthening.

Bhattacharya, Arunodaya↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatial ecology of translocated raccoons

Raccoons (Procyon lotor) are routinely translocated both legally and illegally to mitigate conflicts with humans, which has contributed to the spread of rabies virus across eastern North America. The movement behavior of translocated raccoons has important ramifications for disease transmission yet remains understudied and poorly quantified. To examine the spatial ecology of raccoons following experimental translocation, we performed reciprocal 16 km-distance translocations of 30 raccoons between habitats of high and low raccoon density (bottomland hardwood and upland pine, respectively) across the Savannah River Site (SRS) in Aiken, South Carolina, USA (2018–2019). Translocation influenced patterns of raccoon space use, with translocated animals exhibiting a 13-fold increase in 95% utilization distributions (UDs) post- compared to pre-translocation (mean 95% UD 35.8 ± 36.1 km 2 vs 1.96 ± 1.17 km 2 ). Raccoons originating from upland pine habitats consistently had greater space use and larger nightly movement distances post-translocation compared to raccoons moved from bottomland hardwood habitats, whereas these differences were generally not observed prior to translocation. Estimated home ranges of male raccoons were twice the area as estimated for female raccoons, on average, and this pattern was not affected by translocation. After a transient period lasting on average 36.5 days (SD = 30.0, range = 3.25–92.8), raccoons often resumed pre-experiment movement behavior, with 95% UD sizes not different from those prior to translocation (mean = 2.27 ± 1.63km 2 ). Most animals established new home ranges after translocation, whereas three raccoons moved > 16 km from their release point back to the original capture location. Four animals crossed a 100-m wide river within the SRS post-translocation, but this behavior was not documented among collared raccoons prior to translocation. Large increases in space use combined with the crossing of geographic barriers such as rivers may lead to elevated contact rates with conspecifics, which can heighten disease transmission risks following translocation. These results provide additional insights regarding the potential impacts of raccoon translocation towards population level risks of rabies outbreaks and underscore the need to discourage mesocarnivore translocations to prevent further spread of wildlife rabies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Graphene nanoribbons epitaxy on boron nitride

In this letter, we report a pilot study on epitaxy of monolayer graphene nanoribbons (GNRs) on hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN). We found that GNRs grow preferentially from the atomic steps of h-BN, forming in-plane heterostructures. GNRs with well-defined widths ranging from ∼15 nm to ∼150 nm can be obtained reliably. As-grown GNRs on h-BN have high quality with a carrier mobility of ∼20 000 cm{sup 2} V{sup −1} s{sup −1} for ∼100-nm-wide GNRs at a temperature of 1.7 K. Besides, a moiré pattern induced quasi-one-dimensional superlattice with a periodicity of ∼15 nm for GNR/h-BN was also observed, indicating zero crystallographic twisting angle between GNRs and h-BN substrate. The superlattice induced band structure modification is confirmed by our transport results. These epitaxial GNRs/h-BN with clean surfaces/interfaces and tailored widths provide an ideal platform for high-performance GNR devices.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Oscillating paramagnetic Meissner effect and Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless transition in underdoped Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+δ

ABSTRACT Superconducting phase transitions in two dimensions lie beyond the description of the Ginzburg-Landau symmetry-breaking paradigm for three-dimensional superconductors. They are Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT) transitions of paired-electron condensate driven by the unbinding of topological excitations, i.e. vortices. The recently discovered monolayers of layered high-transition-temperature (${{{T}}}_{{\rm C}}$) cuprate superconductor Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+δ (Bi2212) meant that this 2D superconductor promised to be ideal for the study of unconventional superconductivity. But inhomogeneity posed challenges for distinguishing BKT physics from charge correlations in this material. Here, we utilize the phase sensitivity of scanning superconducting quantum interference device microscopy susceptometry to image the local magnetic response of underdoped Bi2212 from the monolayer to the bulk throughout its phase transition. The monolayer segregates into domains with independent phases at elevated temperatures below ${{{T}}}_{{\rm C}}$. Within a single domain, we find that the susceptibility oscillates with flux between diamagnetism and paramagnetism in a Fraunhofer-like pattern up to ${{{T}}}_{{\rm C}}$. The finite modulation period, as well as the broadening of the peaks when approaching ${{{T}}}_{{\rm C}}$ from below, suggests well-defined vortices that are increasingly screened by the dissociation of vortex-antivortex plasma through a BKT transition. In the multilayers, the susceptibility oscillation differs in a small temperature regime below ${{{T}}}_{{\rm C}}$, consistent with a dimensional crossover led by interlayer coupling. Serving as strong evidence for BKT transition in the bulk, we observe a sharp jump in phase stiffness and paramagnetism at small fields just below ${{{T}}}_{{\rm C}}$. These results unify the superconducting phase transitions from the monolayer to the bulk underdoped Bi2212, and can be collectively referred to as the BKT transition with interlayer coupling.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Open system approach to neutrinos propagating in an ultralight scalar background

We examine decoherence in neutrino oscillations induced by an ultralight scalar field coupled to neutrinos. The scalar induces time- and position-dependent shifts in the neutrino mass matrix. Neutrinos sample different field configurations throughout an experimental data-taking period, which leads to damping effects in the oscillation pattern in the form of decoherence. By recasting the neutrino-scalar dynamics within the open quantum systems framework, we establish a mapping between a complete model and phenomenological decoherence approaches. We find that the parameter driving decoherence scales as L 2 / E 2 , where L is the baseline and E is the neutrino energy, as opposed to L / E typically assumed in phenomenological studies of open system approaches to neutrino oscillations.

F.T. Airoldi, Lua [Sao Paulo U.; Fermilab] (ORCID:↗

DOE OSTI2018

Aftershock sequence of the 2011 Virginia earthquake derived from the dense AIDA array and backprojection

After the 23 August 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake, a temporary dense array (Aftershock Imaging with Dense Arrays (AIDA)) consisting of ~200 stations was deployed at 200-400 m spacing near the epicenter for 12 days. Backprojection of the data was used to automatically detect and locate aftershocks. The co-deployment of a traditional aftershock network of 36 stations at ~2-10 km spacing enables a quantitative comparison. The AIDA backprojection aftershock catalog is complete to magnitude -1.0 and includes events as small as M-1.8. For comparison, the traditional network was complete to M-0.3 for the same time period. The AIDA backprojection catalog observes the same major patterns of seismicity in the epicentral region, but additional details are illuminated. The primary zone of seismicity is not a single fault but is a tabular zone of multiple small faults, this zone has a subtle concave shape along strike and with depth, and a broader zone of new events is observed at shallow depth. In addition, a new separate, shallow cluster was detected and located to the east of the main aftershock zone. The addition of smaller events to the catalog did not change the b-value or the temporal decay constant, but illuminated spatial and temporal patterns. Both the b-value and temporal decay constant are different for 12 days than for 4 months and are different at < 3km depth than at greater depth. Very low b-value, especially at greater depth, is consistent with observed very high stress drops. Conclusively, the results indicate the benefits of dense arrays and auto-detection by backprojection for aftershock studies. And finally, the reduced detection threshold and higher spatial resolution enabled the study of earthquake mechanisms and strain transfer at an unprecedented small scale.

Beskardes, Gungor Didem↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating the impact of environmental factors on West Nile virus human case prediction in Ontario, Canada

West Nile virus is the most common mosquito borne disease in North America and the leading cause of viral encephalitis. West Nile virus is primarily transmitted between birds and mosquitoes while humans are incidental, dead-end hosts. Climate change may increase the risk of human infections as climatic variables have been shown to affect the mosquito life cycle, biting rate, incubation period of the disease in mosquitoes, and bird migration patterns. We develop a zero-inflated Poisson model to investigate how human West Nile virus case counts vary with respect to mosquito abundance and infection rates, bird abundance, and other environmental covariates. We use a Bayesian paradigm to fit our model to data from 2010–2019 in Ontario, Canada. Our results show mosquito infection rate, temperature, precipitation, and crow abundance are positively correlated with human cases while NDVI and robin abundance are negatively correlated with human cases. We find the inclusion of spatial random effects allows for more accurate predictions, particularly in years where cases are higher. Our model is able to accurately predict the magnitude and timing of yearly West Nile virus outbreaks and could be a valuable tool for public health officials to implement prevention strategies to mitigate these outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1982

Vertical flows of supergranular and mesogranular scale observed on the sun with OSO 8

A program of observations was carried out in order to study the penetration of supergranular flows over a broad range of heights in the solar atmosphere. Steady Doppler velocities are determined from observations of a Si II spectral line using the Ultraviolet Spectrometer on the Orbiting Solar Observatory 8 (OSO 8) satellite and Fe I and Mg I lines with the diode-array instrument on the vacuum telescope at Sacramento Peak Observatory (SPO). The heights of formation of these spectral lines span about 1400 km or nearly 11 density scale heights from the photosphere to the middle chromosphere. Steady vertical flows on spatial scales typical of supergranulation and mesogranulation have been detected in the middle chromosphere with OSO 8. The patterns of intensity and steady velocity of granular scale are reproducible in successive data sets. The patterns appear to evolve slowly over the 9 hr period spanned by six orbits.

November, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Human operator response to error-likely situations in complex engineering systems

The causes of human error in complex systems are examined. First, a conceptual framework is provided in which two broad categories of error are discussed: errors of action, or slips, and errors of intention, or mistakes. Conditions in which slips and mistakes might be expected to occur are identified, based on existing theories of human error. Regarding the role of workload, it is hypothesized that workload may act as a catalyst for error. Two experiments are presented in which humans' response to error-likely situations were examined. Subjects controlled PLANT under a variety of conditions and periodically provided subjective ratings of mental effort. A complex pattern of results was obtained, which was not consistent with predictions. Generally, the results of this research indicate that: (1) humans respond to conditions in which errors might be expected by attempting to reduce the possibility of error, and (2) adaptation to conditions is a potent influence on human behavior in discretionary situations. Subjects' explanations for changes in effort ratings are also explored.

Morris, Nancy M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Lateral temperature variations at the core-mantle boundary deduced from the magnetic field

Recent studies of the secular variation of the earth's magnetic field over periods of a few centuries have suggested that the pattern of fluid motion near the surface of earth's outer core may be strongly influenced by lateral temperature variations in the lowermost mantle. This paper introduces a self-consistent method for finding the temperature variations near the core surface by assuming that the dynamical balance there is geostrophic and that lateral density variations there are thermal in origin. As expected, the lateral temperature variations are very small. Some agreement is found between this pattern and the pattern of topography of the core-mantle boundary, but this does not conclusively answer to what extent core surface motions are controlled by the mantle, rather than being determined by processes in the core.

Bloxham, Jeremy↗

NASA NTRS1991

Long-term behaviour of starspots. III - Active longitudes on the long-period RS CVn star HK Lacertae

Thirteen years of photometry were used to study active longitudes on the surface of HK Lacertae. The decaying and forming phenomena of active areas in the years of 1980-1981, 1983-1984, and 1988-1989 are shown. New activity centers suddenly occur near the same orbital phase (0.6) and have lifetimes of several (greater than 6) years. The average rotational period of HK Lac is 24.2852 d; compared to the orbital period of 24.4284 d, this implies a 32 degree/year drift of the active areas on the stellar surface. Two possible interpretations for the period difference are discussed: pseudosynchronism and rigidity of magnetic patterns. The active longitudes on HK Lac are compared with similar phenomena found on the sun.

Olah, K.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The impact of deep cumulus reflection on the ground-level global irradiance

The magnitude of solar irradiance reflected from deep cumulus clouds to the ground was evaluated using observations along the Front Range of Colorado. Solar-irradiance reflection around noon was found to cause increases of up to about 250 W/m sq. Enhancements of the global irradiance measured at the surface were observed to persist for 15-30 min. Occasionally, the increased global irradiance prevailed for a period of about 1 h. Model simulations implied similar patterns. It was evaluated that in some locations cloud reflection of solar irradiance may have a seasonal nonrandom pattern, thus increasing its significance. Estimation of the applied impact of cloud-reflected solar irradiance in several relevant situations is provided.

Segal, M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An analysis of simulated summer blocking episodes

A summer simulation using high-resolution Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres GCM with realistic ocean surface temperatures has been able to generate persistent blocking events in Eurasia and the eastern Pacific during the 46-day period from July 1 to August 15, 1979. The generation of summer blocking episodes appears to be due at least partly to heating at the surface boundary over both the oceanic and continental areas. A control run with the SST climatology failed to produce such blockings in the late portion of the simulation. It is shown that there is considerable forecast skill in the area of the blocking circulations, particularly in the confluence area downstream. It appears that, with updated SSTs, simulation of realistic summer blocking episodes in the Northern Hemisphere is possible at least for a one-and-a-half month period, with a high forecast skill when the blocking pattern develops or is reinforced.

Kung, Ernest C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Direct numerical simulation of instabilities in parallel flow with spherical roughness elements

Results from a direct numerical simulation of laminar flow over a flat surface with spherical roughness elements using a spectral-element method are given. The numerical simulation approximates roughness as a cellular pattern of identical spheres protruding from a smooth wall. Periodic boundary conditions on the domain's horizontal faces simulate an infinite array of roughness elements extending in the streamwise and spanwise directions, which implies the parallel-flow assumption, and results in a closed domain. A body force, designed to yield the horizontal Blasius velocity in the absence of roughness, sustains the flow. Instabilities above a critical Reynolds number reveal negligible oscillations in the recirculation regions behind each sphere and in the free stream, high-amplitude oscillations in the layer directly above the spheres, and a mean profile with an inflection point near the sphere's crest. The inflection point yields an unstable layer above the roughness (where U''(y) is less than 0) and a stable region within the roughness (where U''(y) is greater than 0). Evidently, the instability begins when the low-momentum or wake region behind an element, being the region most affected by disturbances (purely numerical in this case), goes unstable and moves. In compressible flow with periodic boundaries, this motion sends disturbances to all regions of the domain. In the unstable layer just above the inflection point, the disturbances grow while being carried downstream with a propagation speed equal to the local mean velocity; they do not grow amid the low energy region near the roughness patch. The most amplified disturbance eventually arrives at the next roughness element downstream, perturbing its wake and inducing a global response at a frequency governed by the streamwise spacing between spheres and the mean velocity of the most amplified layer.

Deanna, R. G.↗