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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Nonadditive gene expression is correlated with nonadditive phenotypic expression in interspecific triploid hybrids of willow ( Salix spp.)

Many studies have highlighted the complex and diverse basis for heterosis in inbred crops. Despite the lack of a consensus model, it is vital that we turn our attention to understanding heterosis in undomesticated, heterozygous, and polyploid species, such as willow (Salix spp.). Shrub willow is a dedicated energy crop bred to be fast-growing and high yielding on marginal land without competing with food crops. A trend in willow breeding is the consistent pattern of heterosis in triploids produced from crosses between diploid and tetraploid species. Here, we test whether differentially expressed genes are associated with heterosis in triploid families derived from diploid Salix purpurea, diploid Salix viminalis, and tetraploid Salix miyabeana parents. Three biological replicates of shoot tips from all family progeny and parents were collected after 12 weeks in the greenhouse and RNA extracted for RNA-Seq analysis. This study provides evidence that nonadditive patterns of gene expression are correlated with nonadditive phenotypic expression in interspecific triploid hybrids of willow. Expression-level dominance was most correlated with heterosis for biomass yield traits and was highly enriched for processes involved in starch and sucrose metabolism. In addition, there was a global dosage effect of parent alleles in triploid hybrids, with expression proportional to copy number variation. Importantly, differentially expressed genes between family parents were most predictive of heterosis for both field and greenhouse collected traits. Altogether, these data will be used to progress models of heterosis to complement the growing genomic resources available for the improvement of heterozygous perennial bioenergy crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reflection grating fabrication for the Rockets for Extended-source X-ray Spectroscopy

Abstract The Rockets for Extended-source X-ray Spectroscopy (tREXS) grating spectrograph uses modules of reflection gratings to collect spectroscopic data from extended astronomical sources of soft X-rays. Two blazed master gratings were produced on silicon substrates with electron-beam lithography (EBL) and complementary nanofabrication processes that include KOH etching. Substrate-conformal imprint lithography (SCIL) was then used to create 191 replicas of the two grating masters for use in the flight instrument. Diffraction efficiency was measured for several replica gratings, which achieve a peak of$$ \varvec{>} $$ > 70% absolute efficiency near 0.22 keV and an average of$$ \varvec{\approx } $$ ≈ 50% absolute efficiency across the measured band, from 0.18 – 0.8 keV. Here we detail the nanofabrication of the grating masters, including the EBL parameters and tREXS-specific fabrication considerations, and the SCIL replication process used to generate the final instrument gratings. A discussion of grating characterization and areas for future improvement is also presented.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

The solubility and speciation of REE phosphate endmembers (CePO 4 and YPO 4 ) in Cl-rich aqueous fluids from 350 to 450 °C and implications for natural systems

The rare earth elements (REE) are important metals used increasingly in advanced technologies. Within the crust, the elements Ce and Y are commonly more abundant compared to other lanthanides and comprise important end-member constituents of REE-bearing minerals. Specifically, Ce is part of the light (L) REE which have larger ionic radii than the heavy (H) REE, which are grouped together with Y. These differences in ionic radius can lead to important physico-chemical trends within the lanthanide group. Despite a recent increase in experimental and thermodynamic data for the REE at high temperature and pressure, there is still a significant lack of these data at supercritical conditions. In this study we conducted batch-type experiments to measure the solubility of REE phosphates (CePO 4 and YPO 4 ) at varying starting pH (1.5–10), and salinity (0.01–1.4 mol/kg NaCl) at 350 and P sat , and from 400 to 450 °C at 700 bar. Results show that the solubility of Ce (33–0.14 ppb) is generally higher than Y (13–0.13 ppb) and that Ce complexes more strongly with both chloride and hydroxyl ligands compared to Y. The solubilities of both REE phosphates are highly pH-dependent and, to a lesser extent, depend on salinity at the studied conditions. The solubility data from this study were implemented into the GEMSFITS program to optimize the thermodynamic properties of Ce and Y hydroxyl and chloride species. The updated standard partial molal Gibbs energies of formation (Δ f G 0 T,P ) are used within the experimental temperature and pressure range to accurately predict the CePO 4 and YPO 4 solubility and Ce and Y speciation behavior. Based on the updated thermodynamic properties we also provide formation constants (log β n Cl,OH ) for Ce and Y hydroxyl and chloride species. Updated thermodynamic properties are applied to model REE-apatite dissolution and REE mobility based on the Pea Ridge iron oxide apatite deposit in Missouri, USA. The apatite dissolution model replicates natural observations including the replacement of monazite and xenotime after apatite and is an example of the utility of the new thermodynamic constants applied to supercritical crustal fluids. Furthermore, the findings of this study advance the predictive capabilities of geochemical models, our understanding of the behavior of individual REE, and permit modeling the overarching fractionation trends between LREE and HREE in supercritical crustal fluids.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of Laboratory Testbeds Simulating Real-World Greenhouse Gas Emissions [Slides]

In this presentation, I discussed the development of laboratory test beds that simulate field greenhouse gas emissions. Field experiments are used to test new landscape management practices that could reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, field experiments are very expensive and time consuming. Laboratory experiments are generally more cost efficient and timesaving. There are methods that can be used to make these laboratory tests more closely replicate natural systems for the improvement of agricultural lands used in biofuel and food production. The goal of this project is to develop a laboratory testbed that will mimic field greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve this goal, we used soil cores taken from agricultural and marginal lands, then attached fiberglass wicks to improve the drainage system in the core to simulate a more natural hydraulic system. The combination of using native soils and fiberglass wicks should demonstrate similar greenhouse gas emissions between the lab and the field. Our preliminary results suggest that the carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide flux from the agricultural land site were comparable to the greenhouse soil cores equipped with the drainage wicks. The data suggests that laboratory testbeds can be used to mimic field greenhouse gas emissions if parameters, such as soil water content are in a set range.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Resilience in Lane Detection Methods: Infrastructure-Based Sensors and Traditional Approaches for Autonomous Vehicles

Traditional autonomous vehicle perception subsystems that use onboard sensors have the drawbacks of high computational load and data duplication. Infrastructure-based sensors, which can provide high quality information without the computational burden and data duplication, are an alternative to traditional autonomous vehicle perception subsystems. However, these technologies are still in the early stages of development and have not been extensively evaluated for lane detection system performance. Therefore, there is a lack of quantitative data on their performance relative to traditional perception methods, especially during hazardous scenarios, such as lane line occlusion, sensor failure, and environmental obstructions. We address this need by evaluating the influence of hazards on the resilience of three different lane detection methods in simulation: (1) traditional camera detection using a U-Net algorithm, (2) radar detections using infrastructure-based radar retro-reflectors (RRs), and (3) direct communication of lane line information using chip-enabled raised pavement markers (CERPMs). The performance of each of these methods is assessed using resilience engineering metrics by simulating the individual methods for each sensor technology’s response to related hazards in the CARLA simulator. Using simulation techniques to replicate these methods and hazards acquires extensive datasets without lengthy time investments. Specifically, the resilience triangle was used to quantitatively measure the resilience of the lane detection system to obtain unique insights into each of the three lane detection methods; notably the infrastructure-based CERPMs and RRs had high resistance to hazards and were not as easily affected as the vision-based U-Net. However, while U-Net was able to recover the fastest from the disruption as compared to the other two methods, it also had the most performance loss. Overall, this study demonstrates that while infrastructure-based lane keeping technologies are still in early development, they have great potential as alternatives to traditional ones.

Patil, Pritesh↗
DOE OSTI2021

RhizoVision Explorer: open-source software for root image analysis and measurement standardization

Abstract Roots are central to the function of natural and agricultural ecosystems by driving plant acquisition of soil resources and influencing the carbon cycle. Root characteristics like length, diameter and volume are critical to measure to understand plant and soil functions. RhizoVision Explorer is an open-source software designed to enable researchers interested in roots by providing an easy-to-use interface, fast image processing and reliable measurements. The default broken roots mode is intended for roots sampled from pots and soil cores, washed and typically scanned on a flatbed scanner, and provides measurements like length, diameter and volume. The optional whole root mode for complete root systems or root crowns provides additional measurements such as angles, root depth and convex hull. Both modes support providing measurements grouped by defined diameter ranges, the inclusion of multiple regions of interest and batch analysis. RhizoVision Explorer was successfully validated against ground truth data using a new copper wire image set. In comparison, the current reference software, the commercial WinRhizo™, drastically underestimated volume when wires of different diameters were in the same image. Additionally, measurements were compared with WinRhizo™ and IJ_Rhizo using a simulated root image set, showing general agreement in software measurements, except for root volume. Finally, scanned root image sets acquired in different labs for the crop, herbaceous and tree species were used to compare results from RhizoVision Explorer with WinRhizo™. The two software showed general agreement, except that WinRhizo™ substantially underestimated root volume relative to RhizoVision Explorer. In the current context of rapidly growing interest in root science, RhizoVision Explorer intends to become a reference software, improve the overall accuracy and replicability of root trait measurements and provide a foundation for collaborative improvement and reliable access to all.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of strongly coupled geomechanics and gas hydrate reservoir simulation with multiscale laboratory tests

In this work, we validate a coupled flow-geomechanics simulator for gas hydrate deposits, named T+M AM , performing two meter-scale laboratory experiments of gas hydrates for production by depressurization, replicating the gas hydrate deposit in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea, South Korea. The first experiment with a sand-only specimen is a 1D 1 m-scale depressurization test based on the excess gas method, which represents the grain coating hydrate growth. On the other hand, the second is a 3D 1.5 m-scale test with the excess water method for a sand-mud alternating layer system, representing the pore filling hydrate growth. We measure production and displacement at the top with different depressurization levels. In particular, the 3D test exhibits high coupling strength of substantial deformation induced by incompressibility of water and high deformability of the specimen. For validation, we match pressure, flow rate, and displacement between the experimental data and numerical results. Thus, we identify that T+M AM is a reliable simulator, which can be applied to fields in both permafrost and deep oceanic hydrate deposits of strongly coupled flow and geomechanics systems. This validation also implies that other coupled simulators based on the same coupling formulation as T+M AM can be validated when individual flow and geomechanics simulators are stable and reliable.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative analysis of nutrient concentrations in generalist and specialist tree species and soils, Manaus, Brazil

This dataset was collected near Manaus, Brazil, at ZF-2 site, inside the North-South transect plots from 20221011 to 20221020. Measurements were made on specialists and generalist tree species along topographic gradient (in upland high-clay content soils of plateaus and high sandy content and partially flooded soils of valleys). We selected nine species (with four replicates each, totaling 35 individuals) occurring in different topographic positions: three plateau specialists, three valley specialists, and three generalists, where leaf and trunk samples were collected from each individual, and soil samples for carbon and nutrient analysis and quantification. Three soil pits were opened around each sample tree, about one meter apart (total of 105 soil pits each 60-cm deep), where soil samples were collected at four depths: 0-5, 5-10, 10-30 and 30-50 cm. In each of the three pits around each tree, one single sample was taken at each depth and combined to obtain a composite sample per depth per individual tree (35 trees × 4 depths = 140 soil samples). The files “Plant_Nutrient_Concentrations_NS_Transect_Manaus.csv” and “Soil_Nutrient_Concentrations_NS_Transect_Manaus.csv” contain the nutrient concentration data from plant and soil material, respectively. Additionally, the file “Sample_Info.csv” contains details about each variable including units and data type. The file “Species_Info.csv” includes information about each sampled individual, such as species, family, diameter at the breast height (DBH), and more. The dataset is ready to be used in any programming language like python or R. This dataset was originally published on the NGEE Tropics Archive and is being mirrored on ESS-DIVE for long-term archival Acknowledgement: Funding for NGEE-Tropics data resources was provided by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A fast and sensitive size-exclusion chromatography method for plasma extracellular vesicle proteomic analysis

Extracellular vesicles (EVs) carry diverse biomolecules derived from their parental cells, making their components excellent biomarker candidates. However, purifying EVs is a major hurdle in biomarker discovery since current methods require large amounts of samples, are time-consuming and typically have poor reproducibility. Here we describe a simple, fast, and sensitive EV fractionation method using size exclusion chromatography (SEC) on a fast protein liquid chromatography (FPLC) system. Our method uses a Superose 6 Increase 5/150, which has a bed volume of 2.9 mL. The FPLC system and small column size enable reproducible separation of only 50 µL of human plasma in 15 min. To demonstrate the utility of our method, we used longitudinal samples from a group of individuals who underwent intense exercise. A total of 838 proteins were identified, of which, 261 were previously characterized as EV proteins, including classical markers, such as cluster of differentiation (CD)9 and CD81. Quantitative analysis showed low technical variability with correlation coefficients greater than 0.9 between replicates. The analysis captured differences in relevant EV proteins involved in response to physical activity. Our method enables fast and sensitive fractionation of plasma EVs with low variability, which will facilitate biomarker studies in large clinical cohorts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Synchrotron X-ray microtomography and multifractal analysis for the characterization of pore structure and distribution in softwood pellet biochar

Biochar pores in the micrometer range (1–100 µm) derive from cellular structures of the plant biomass subjected to pyrolysis or can be the result of mechanical processing, such as pelleting. In this study, synchrotron X-ray microtomography was used to investigate the internal pore structure of softwood pellet biochar produced by slow pyrolysis at 550 and 700 °C. The microtomographic data sets consisted of 2025 images of 2560 × 2560 voxels with a voxel side length of 0.87 µm. The three-dimensional reconstructions revealed that pelleting and pyrolysis significantly altered the pore structures of the wood feedstock, creating a network of connected pores between fragments that resembled the wood morphology. While higher pyrolysis temperature increased the specific surface area (as determined by BET nitrogen adsorption), it did not affect the total observed porosity. Multifractal analysis was applied to assess the characteristics of the frequency distribution of pores along each of the three dimensions of reconstructed images of five softwood pellet biochar samples. The resulting singularity and Rényi spectra (generalized dimensions) indicated that the distribution of porosity had monofractal scaling behavior, was homogeneous within the analyzed volumes and consistent between replicate samples. Moreover, the pore distributions were isotropic (direction-independent), which is in strong contrast with the anisotropic pore structure of wood. As pores at the scale analyzed in this study are relevant, for example, for the supply of plant accessible water and habitable space for microorganisms, our findings combined with the ability to reproduce biochar with such pore distribution offer substantial advantages in various biochar applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated multimodel analysis reveals achievable pathways toward reliable, 100% renewable electricity for Los Angeles

Climate change has prompted many communities to set targets for carbon-free power supplies, but they often lack data-driven strategies to achieve them. We present a comprehensive analysis of an entirely renewable electric power system that can maintain operating reliability and resource adequacy using detailed models of the city of Los Angeles power grid. In consultation with the operating utility, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), and the local community, we develop four supply scenarios across three demand projections to analyze which types of infrastructure and operational changes would achieve reliable electricity at least cost. We find that a reliable, 100%-renewable power system yielding more than $1 billion annually in health and climate co-benefits is achievable. Solar can supply most future energy needs, while combustion turbines that use renewable, storable carbon-neutral fuels are key to maintaining reliability. This study provides a replicable methodology that other jurisdictions globally can follow.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shrub Seedling Experiment: Environmental Conditions, Vegetation Composition, and Seedling Recruitment, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2018-2019

In June 2018, a manipulative seed-addition experiment was established at the Council Mile Marker 71 (CN_MM71), Quartz Creek Burn Area (Kougarok Mile Marker 86), and Quartz Creek Unburned (Kougarok Mile Marker 80) sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. At each site, 5 replicate blocks were established in disturbed and intact upland tussock tundra (a total of 40 plots). Disturbed plots at Council were located on thermo-erosional (thermokarst) slopes, while disturbed plots in Quartz Creek were in burned areas affected by the Mingvk Lake fire in 2015. Using a split-plot design, an additional manual disturbance treatment (scraping to remove the surface bryophyte layer) was implemented across all blocks in June 2018. Seeds of five erect, deciduous shrubs were broadcast seeded into each plot in June 2018, and seedlings were censused in August 2018 and August 2019. The dataset includes ancillary measurements of plot-level environmental conditions (soil temperature, moisture, chemistry, thaw depth, microtopography, substrate thickness) and vegetation composition (NDVI and estimated percent cover by species and plant functional type). Dataset contains 10 csv data files (five data files with corresponding data dictionaries and one file-level metadata file) and one pdf user guide. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Land Resources for Wind Energy Development Requires Regionalized Characterizations

Estimates of the land area occupied by wind energy differ by orders of magnitude due to data scarcity and inconsistent methodology. Here, we developed a method that combines machine learning-based imagery analysis and geographic information systems and examined the land area of 318 wind farms (15,871 turbines) in the U.S. portion of the Western Interconnection. We found that prior land use and human modification in the project area are critical for land-use efficiency and land transformation of wind projects. Projects developed in areas with little human modification have a land-use efficiency of 63.8 ± 8.9 W/m 2 (mean ±95% confidence interval) and a land transformation of 0.24 ± 0.07 m 2 /MWh, while values for projects in areas with high human modification are 447 ± 49.4 W/m 2 and 0.05 ± 0.01 m 2 /MWh, respectively. We show that land resources for wind can be quantified consistently with our replicable method, a method that obviates >99% of the workload using machine learning. To quantify the peripheral impact of a turbine, buffered geometry can be used as a proxy for measuring land resources and metrics when a large enough impact radius is assumed (e.g., >4 times the rotor diameter). Our analysis provides a necessary first step toward regionalized impact assessment and improved comparisons of energy alternatives.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A chemical kinetics theory for interpreting the non-monotonic temperature dependence of enzymatic reactions

Abstract. One notable observation of enzymatic chemical reactions is that, for a given abundance of enzymes and substrates, temperature increases cause reaction rates to first increase consistent with the Arrhenius relationship, then plateau, and finally fall off quickly to zero at high temperatures. While many mathematical functions have been used to describe this pattern, we here propose a chemical kinetics theory which successfully replicates this observation and provides insights into the processes responsible for these dynamics. The chemical kinetics theory combines the law of mass action, von Smoluchowski's diffusion-limited chemical reaction theory, and Eyring's transition state theory. This new theory reveals that the thermally reversible enzyme denaturation ensured by the ceaseless thermal motion of molecules and ions in an enzyme solution explains the plateau and subsequent decrease in chemical reaction rates with increasing temperature. The temperature-dependent affinity parameter (K) that relates enzymes and substrates through their binding also affects the shape of the emergent temperature response. We demonstrate that with an increase in substrate availability, K shifts the optimal temperature, where reaction rates plateau, towards higher values. Further, we show that the chemical kinetics theory accurately represents 12 sets of published enzyme assay data and includes the popular mechanistic model by Ratkowsky et al. (2005) as a special case. Given its good performance and solid theoretical underpinning, we believe this new theory will facilitate the construction of more mechanistic-based environmental biogeochemical models.

Tang, Jinyun↗
DOE OSTI2025

Space‐Time Causal Discovery in Earth System Science: A Local Stencil Learning Approach

Causal discovery tools enable scientists to infer meaningful relationships from observational data, spurring advances in fields as diverse as biology, economics, and climate science. Despite these successes, the application of causal discovery to space-time systems remains immensely challenging due to the high-dimensional nature of the data. For example, in climate sciences, modern observational temperature records over the past few decades regularly measure thousands of locations around the globe. To address these challenges, we introduce Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe), a novel meta-algorithm for discovering causal structures in complex space-time systems. CaStLe leverages regularities in local space-time dependencies to learn governing global dynamics. This local perspective eliminates spurious confounding and drastically reduces sample complexity, making space-time causal discovery practical and effective. For causal discovery, CaStLe flexibly accepts any appropriately adapted time series causal discovery algorithm to recover local causal structures. These advances enable causal discovery of geophysical phenomena that were previously unapproachable, including non-periodic, transient phenomena such as volcanic eruption plumes. Regularities in local space-time dependencies are transformed into informative spatial replicates, which actually improve CaStLe's performance when applied to ever-larger spatial grids. We successfully apply CaStLe to discover the atmospheric dynamics governing the climate response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. We provide validation experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of CaStLe over existing causal-discovery frameworks on a range of geophysics-inspired benchmarks while identifying the method's limitations and domains where its assumptions may not hold.

Nichol, J. Jake [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque,↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-Fidelity Numerical Wave Tank Verification & Validation Study: Wave Generation Through Paddle Motion: Preprint

This paper presents a numerical benchmark study of wave propagation due to a paddle motion using different high-fidelity numerical models, which are capable of replicating the nearly actual physical wave tank testing. A full time series of the measured wave generation paddle motion which was used to generate wave propagation in the physical wave tank will be utilized in each of the models contributed by IEA OES Task 10's participants, which includes both computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and smooth hydrodynamic particle (SPH). The high-fidelity simulations of the physical wave testcase will allow for the evaluation of the initial transient effects from wave ramp-up and its evolution in the wave tank over time for two representative regular waves with varying levels of nonlinearity. A couple of interesting metrics like the predicted wave surface elevation at select wave probes, wave period, and phase-shift in time will be assessed to evaluate the relative accuracy of numerical models versus experimental data within specified time intervals. These models will serve as a guide for modelers in the wave energy community and provide a base case to allow further and more detailed numerical modeling of the fixed Kramer Sphere Cases under wave excitation force wave tank testing.

HYDRO ENERGY,TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Post-Combat-Injury Opioid Prescription and Alcohol Use Disorder in the Military

Previous studies have identified combat exposure and combat traumatic experience as problematic drinking risk factors. Increasing evidence suggests that opioid use increases the risk of alcohol use disorder. This study investigated the association between opioid prescription use after injury and (1) alcohol use disorder and (2) severity of alcohol use disorder among deployed military servicemembers. Deidentified health records data of 9,029 deployed servicemembers from a retrospective cohort study were analyzed. Data were randomly selected from the Department of Defense Trauma Registry and included servicemembers with combat injuries during deployment in Iraq or Afghanistan (2002–2016). Pharmacy records and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revision diagnosis codes were used. Three groups were identified (no opioid prescription use, nonpersistent opioid prescription use, and persistent opioid prescription use) and were compared on the basis of alcohol use disorder risk using Cox proportional hazard models. Data analyses were performed in 2021. Of the 9,029 servicemembers with combat injury, 2,262 developed alcohol use disorder (1,322 developed severe alcohol use disorder). Compared with no opioid prescription use, increased alcohol use disorder risk was associated with persistent opioid prescription use, with a hazard ratio of 1.13 (95% CI=1.02, 1.26). After covariate adjustment, increased risk remained statistically significant (hazards ratio=1.24; 95% CI=1.10, 1.39). There was no significant difference in alcohol use disorder risk between no opioid prescription use and nonpersistent opioid prescription use. The risk of severe alcohol use disorder did not vary by opioid use among servicemembers with alcohol use disorder diagnosis. Furthermore, the findings of the study suggest that the incidence of alcohol use disorder was higher among injured servicemembers with persistent opioid prescription use than among those without opioid use. If replicated in prospective studies, the findings highlight the need for clinicians to consider the current and history of alcohol use of patients in initiating treatment involving opioids.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases

When emerging pathogens encounter new host species for which they are poorly adapted, they must evolve to escape extinction. Pathogens experience selection on traits at multiple scales, including replication rates within host individuals and transmissibility between hosts. We analyze a stochastic model linking pathogen growth and competition within individuals to transmission between individuals. Our analysis reveals a new factor, the cross-scale reproductive number of a mutant virion, that quantifies how quickly mutant strains increase in frequency when they initially appear in the infected host population. This cross-scale reproductive number combines with viral mutation rates, single-strain reproductive numbers, and transmission bottleneck width to determine the likelihood of evolutionary emergence, and whether evolution occurs swiftly or gradually within chains of transmission. We find that wider transmission bottlenecks facilitate emergence of pathogens with short-term infections, but hinder emergence of pathogens exhibiting cross-scale selective conflict and long-term infections. Furthermore, our results provide a framework to advance the integration of laboratory, clinical, and field data in the context of evolutionary theory, laying the foundation for a new generation of evidence-based risk assessment of emergence threats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗