Explicitly Accounting for Multiple Spatial Scales in Data Informing Kd Distribution Development - 18414
This work provides an example of incorporating information about spatial scale into input parameter distribution development for probabilistic performance assessment (PA) models and highlights the importance of having an interdisciplinary team working together in the distribution development process. The novel approach is demonstrated for contaminant partitioning coefficients for water/rock (Kds), providing a specific context for discussing the approach and challenges, but the strategy is general and applies to many other PA model inputs. In this example, a PA model of a radioactive waste disposal site is assumed to have large cells representing spatial scales of up to thousands of square meters in area and several to tens of meters in depth. Spatial variability in Kds is expected to occur at scales much smaller than the units in the model domain over which values are applied, and therefore values are intended to represent possible averages over the modeled volume (i.e., spatial scale represented by a PA model cell). Information about possible Kd values for each material category comes from a variety of literature sources, and the reported results used to inform the distribution are available at a wide range of scales (e.g., individual batch experiment results from small-scale samples, averages based on samples collected over site-scales, averages based on samples from large regions, etc.). Effectively addressing the mismatch in spatial scale between available information and the PA Model is a challenge within PA distribution development and it takes effort from database managers, subject matter experts, modelers, and statisticians. (authors)