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At least 559 records · Page 31

PET and polyolefin plastics supply chains in Michigan: present and future systems analysis of environmental and socio-economic impacts

Many actions are underway at global, national, and local levels to increase plastics circularity. However, studies evaluating the environmental and socio-economic impacts of such a transition are lacking at regional levels in the United States. In this work, the existing polyethylene terephthalate and polyolefin plastics supply chains in Michigan were compared to a potential future (‘NextCycle’) scenario that looks at increasing Michigan’s overall recycling rate to 45%. Material flow analysis data was combined with environmental and socio-economic metrics to evaluate the sustainability of these supply chains for the modeled scenarios. Overall, the NextCycle scenario for these supply chains achieved a net 14% and 34% savings of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy impacts, when compared with their respective baseline values. Additionally, the NextCycle scenario showed a net gain in employment and wages, however, it showed a net loss of revenue generation outside of Michigan due to the avoided use of virgin resins in Michigan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Methods—Analyzing Electrochemical Kinetic Parameters in Deep Eutectic Solvents Using an Extended Butler-Volmer Equation

Deep eutectic solvents (DESs) are promising electrolytes for electrochemical redox reactions, which can be used in redox flow batteries (RFBs). However, in some systems like the Fe 2+/3+ redox reaction in ethaline, traditional Tafel-based kinetic analysis generates unreasonable kinetic parameters (i.e., large anodic/cathodic charge transfer coefficients ( α a , α c ) along with low exchange current densities ( i 0 )). This hinders a comprehensive kinetic and kinetic mechanism study. Here, we perform a detailed investigation of the Tafel analysis using a series of synthetic rotating disk electrode (RDE) data. We find the Tafel analysis only works well when i 0 < 0.57 i lim (limiting current density) in our scenario and leads to abnormal kinetic values once i 0 exceeds this limiting value. Thus, we propose an extended Butler-Volmer (ex-BV) analysis based on modern non-linear fitting techniques to obtain the actual kinetic parameters for such systems. The results show that this method fits the RDE data closely and generates reliable α a , α c and i 0 values, demonstrating that it is a good replacement for traditional Tafel analysis for kinetic studies in high-viscosity electrolytes such as DES systems.

Electrochemistry↗

NRIC Integrated Energy Systems Demonstration Pre-Conceptual Designs

This report presents pre-conceptual design scenarios for a potential multiphase demonstration program for innovative uses of nuclear energy with the National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) and the Crosscutting Technology Development Integrated Energy Systems (CTD IES) program in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy. The demonstration program would address the need for low-carbon energy sources among industry stakeholders by identifying and implementing high-impact advanced nuclear projects within a holistic systems perspective. Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC, the managing and operating contractor for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in Idaho Falls, Idaho, is seeking Expressions of Interest (EOI) for industry stakeholder participation in the potential demonstration program. Funding sources have not yet been identified for the demonstration program. Responses to the EOI will shape the development and funding requirements for the potential program and inform the down-selection of project designs for further planning and analysis from the wide set of pre-conceptual design scenarios shown in this report. This introductory section summarizes the need for low-carbon energy sources, describes the phases envisioned for the demonstration program, and outlines the organization of this report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Exemplary Merging Clusters: Weak-lensing and X-Ray Analysis of the Double Radio Relic, Merging Galaxy Clusters MACS J1752.0+4440 and ZWCL 1856.8+6616

We report the investigation of merging galaxy clusters that exhibit radio relics is strengthening our understanding of the formation and evolution of galaxy clusters, the nature of dark matter, the intracluster medium, and astrophysical particle acceleration. Each merging cluster provides only a single view of the cluster formation process, and the variety of merging clusters is vast. Clusters hosting double radio relics are rare and extremely important because they allow tight constraints on the merger scenario. We present a weak-lensing and X-ray analysis of MACS J1752.0+4440 (z = 0.365) and ZWCL 1856.8+6616 (z = 0.304), two double radio relic clusters. Our weak-lensing mass estimates show that each cluster is a major merger with approximately 1:1 mass ratio. The total mass of MACS J1752.0+4440 (ZWCL 1856.8+6616) is M 200 =14.7 $_{-3.3}+{+3.8}$ x 10 14 M ⊙ M 200 = 2.4 $_{-0.7}^{+0.9}$ 10 14 M ⊙ ). We find that these two clusters have comparable features in their weak-lensing and gas distributions, even though the systems have vastly different total masses. From the likeness of the X-ray morphologies and the remarkable symmetry of the radio relics, we propose that both systems underwent nearly head-on collisions. However, revelations from the hot-gas features and our multiwavelength data analysis suggest that ZWCL 1856.8+6618 is likely at a later merger phase than MACS J1752.0+4440. We postulate that the SW radio relic in MACS J1752.0+4440 is a result of particle reacceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Data-Informed Synthetic Networks of Water Distribution Systems for Resilience Analysis in Puerto Rico

The increasing potential of infrastructure disruptions calls for high-quality infrastructure models to be used in resilience analysis and decision making. Unfortunately, many utilities and communities do not have access to accurate and detailed models due to a lack of data and resources. Furthermore, security restrictions on sharing infrastructure models present roadblocks to research, analysis, and decision making. Recent advances in the development of synthetic water distribution models provide a potential solution to this problem. There is an opportunity to improve these methods by leveraging incomplete pipe datasets to aid synthetic network generation. To address this gap, we developed a methodology for synthetic network generation that incorporates partial pipe data using a modification of the minimum cost flow algorithm for network generation and pipe sizing. This methodology demonstrates how partial pipe data can be leveraged to improve site-specific synthetic network generation. For the study area of Mayagüez, Puerto Rico, a synthetic model generated using 50% of real pipe data matches the pressure of the validation system with an average error of 23.5 m of head, which improves upon the average error of 31.6 m of head produced by a synthetic model generated using no data of the real pipes. Additionally, synthetic networks are shown to replicate the pressure response under a disruption scenario of the validation network, suggesting potential use in resilience analysis.

resilience analysis↗

Extending Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to Future Water Supply In-frastructure Scenarios: A Case Study of San Antonio, TX

Datasets supporting findings and visualization behind Okoye and McManamay (2025) Extending Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to Future Water Supply Infrastructure Scenarios: A Case Study of San Antonio, TX. Environmental Research Communications, DOI: 10.57931/2563186 These datasets contains the results of a site selection analysis for municipal water supply planning across multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 1–5) and hard scenario classification of water systems in San Antonio, TX. It includes data at the resolution of individual surface water supply sources (COMIDs) and integrates a wide range of hydrologic, socioeconomic, infrastructural, and scenario-based planning variables. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details. Descriptions of the datasets are provided below. Dataset(s) Descriptions: Dataset_SSP1_SSP4.xlsx - Contains data used for site selection optimization under SSP1 to SSP4. This dataset was generated based on multi-indicator computations (e.g., WAI, WQI, ERI, WTC, WIC), scenario demand projections, and resource and spatial constraints, excluding new reservoir values. Dataset_SSP5.xlsx - Used for site optimization under SSP5. Unlike Dataset_SSP1_SSP4, this dataset includes new reservoir features with updated calculations of WAI, WTC, and WIC to reflect the added infrastructure and supply potential. hard_classification.xlsx - Provides the scenario classification output for each site. Includes both the initial scenario classification based on Euclidean Distance and adjusted classifications based on 30% change reduction BAU.zip - Zipped folder of .shp files showing spatially optimized water supply sites per SSP under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) water demand strategy LowGW.zip - Zipped folder of .shp files showing optimized site selections under the Low Groundwater strategy

geospatial↗

Updating Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative

Energy modeling of decarbonized scenarios in integrated energy systems requires nuclear energy parameters that are critical for forecasting, modeling and cost structure analysis. Using updated real-world data has always been a challenge to estimate current nuclear reactors costs and deployment scenarios. Given this, an updated set of parameters for overnight capital costs and operation and maintenance costs are estimated for the Net Zero World initiative using recent reports that provided a vast set of open sources data inputs. This paper follows the methodology developed in the Net Zero World report and applies the new ranges estimated in the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear report that address many of the current challenges in obtaining accurate cost data for advanced nuclear concepts. The final goal is to provide new estimates of the overnight capital costs and operational costs for different countries. The present paper improves the earlier capital cost estimations, building on recent literature that aims to obtain accurate data for modeling and simulation to enhance energy system evaluations and support decision-making in areas like de-carbonization and capacity expansion. Finally, the paper compares the new cost estimates with the old cost results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

SCALE Analyses of Scenarios in the Molten Salt Reactor Fuel Cycle

In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission non-light-water reactor fuel cycle demonstration project, the capabilities of SCALE 6.3.1 for radionuclide characterization, criticality, and shielding were demonstrated through several scenarios in a molten salt reactor (MSR) nuclear fuel cycle. Three scenarios were selected for this study, with the molten salt breeder reactor (MSBR) serving as the reference design. The original thorium-based fuel salt used in MSBR was replaced with a 235 U-enriched fuel salt to better reflect anticipated future MSR concepts. The first scenario focused on the fuel salt preparation stage. Criticality analyses, using SCALE/CSAS-Shift and SCALE/SAMPLER, examined potential critical configurations in the fresh fuel salt container based on variables such as 235 U enrichment, UF 4 molar fraction, temperature, and container geometry. The second scenario explored the release of fission products during reactor operation in which the tritium buildup in the primary fuel salt was quantified through depletion calculations using SCALE/TRITON with continuous fuel makeup and fractional fission product removal. This scenario also assessed radioactivity levels in the off-gas system (OGS), quantifying radiotoxic nuclides that could be released into the environment. SCALE/SAMPLER was employed to perform uncertainty quantification to identify key operating parameters influencing the buildup of radiotoxic nuclides in the OGS. Additionally, radiation dose rates were calculated using SCALE/MAVRIC to estimate the maximum exposure levels within the reactor cell complex during operation. The final scenario evaluated the decay heat and radioactivity of the primary fuel salt collected in the drain tank, as well as the radiation dose rate outside the building from the presence of the drain tank. Overall, the application of SCALE’s various capabilities for radionuclide inventory generation, criticality analysis, and shielding in MSR fuel cycles was successfully demonstrated across these scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

How Today's Hydropower Impacts Tomorrow's Grid: Counterfactual Scenarios Showing Grid Impacts if Hydropower Goes Away

Amidst ongoing discussions about hydropower removals, retirements, and reduced availability due to drought and other environmental considerations, it is important to understand the long-term effects of reduced hydropower resources on the U.S. electric grid. This analysis uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS™) grid planning model to compare several representative scenarios of retiring hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capacity over time and explore the overall implications on the U.S. grid from present day through 2050. Reduced hydropower capacity and generation is replaced by a mix of both fossil and non-fossil resources, including natural gas, wind, solar, and battery technologies. Additional natural gas usage leads to an increase in cumulative national electric sector carbon dioxide and criteria pollutant operating emissions of less than 1% in many scenarios but up to 4-5.3% in some cases. Total electric sector costs also increase by <1% in many scenarios but up to 3.6% in the most extreme scenarios where nearly all the hydropower and PSH fleet retires, equating to $\$$340 billion in undiscounted costs. National results indicate that absent additional interventions, retiring hydropower and PSH capacity could increase electric sector emissions and direct capital and operating costs. However, more focused analysis is required to evaluate specific asset-level, local, and regional implications, and a broader scope is necessary to weigh these electric sector impacts alongside economic, ecological, water management, and other cross-sectoral effects that could be either negative or positive.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Simulation process and data flow for a large system dynamics model

This paper documents the workflow and supporting technologies that a large system dynamics model, the biomass scenario model, employs to streamline the data preparation, simulation, quality control, and analysis process at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The workflow centers on automation of routine aspects of the flow of data between data stores, simulations, and visualizations. It enforces quality checks on data, reproducibility of computations, and traceability of results, while maintaining complete archives of modeling and analysis artifacts. The resulting frictionless simulation/analysis environment supports large-scale sensitivity analysis, interactive creation of ensembles of simulations, and rapid visualization-based exploration of simulation results.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Structural Characterization of a Toppling Rock Slab From Array-Based Ambient Vibration Measurements and Numerical Modal Analysis

Accurate assessments of the internal structure and boundary conditions of unstable rock slopes are imperative for evaluating landslide hazard scenarios. However, instability characterization at depth remains challenging and is often limited by costly or invasive subsurface investigations. Here, we develop a new approach coupling array-based ambient vibration modal analysis and numerical modeling to improve structural characterization of rock slope instabilities at depth. We used ambient noise cross-correlation on 4 hr of seismic data recorded by an array of 30 nodal geophones at a 500-m-long toppling rock slab in Utah, USA to identify modal frequencies between 0.8 and 3.5 Hz and derive modal displacements. We show that transverse and longitudinal bending modes span the length of the instability, indicating an interconnected slab. Further, statistical comparison of field results with outputs from >1,000 finite element models with varying boundary conditions showed that the instability depth varies between 40–70 and 10–20 m in the middle and lateral regions, respectively. Our approach yields new information on the structural conditions of rock cliff and column instabilities at depth, which is not easily obtained by other means but is imperative for change detection monitoring and improved hazard assessments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Fermi-LAT Captures a Late-2024 Gamma-Ray Outburst near Two Newly Identified Gamma-Ray-emitting Galactic Supernova Remnants, without Evidence of Physical Association

We report the gamma-ray study of two neighboring in the sky Galactic supernova remnants (SNRs), namely, 3C 434.1 (or G094.0+01.0) and G093.7–00.2. In the vicinity of the two SNRs, a late-2024 gamma-ray outburst—not physically connected to the SNRs—was detected with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). Employing 16.5 yr of Fermi-LAT data, we report the first firm detection of the gamma-ray counterpart of 3C 434.1 at a 7.2σ significance and a likely detection of an enhanced gamma-ray emission signal at a 4.5σ level from G093.7–00.2. The late-2024 gamma-ray outburst is detected at a ∼12σ significance level over a duration of 3 days. For all three objects, a comprehensive morphological and spectral analysis of the corresponding gamma-ray data was conducted. The prevalent scenario for the nature of the gamma-ray emission of both SNRs is attributed to their surrounding environment. Both are likely interacting with nearby dense material, resulting in hadronically induced gamma-ray emission. We deduce that the outburst source is most likely a blazar in flare, linked to the compact, flat-spectrum radio source TXS 2138+527 (also known as NVSS J213953+530016). Further, the spectral analysis of the gamma-ray source conducted within the 100 MeV–800 GeV energy range using the complete LAT data sets, which yielded a soft averaged spectral shape, supports the hypothesis of a flat spectrum radio quasar (FSRQ) origin for the source; with a most likely leptonically induced scenario for the observed gamma-ray outburst as inferred from the obtained hard spectral shape when utilizing short time intervals focusing on the outburst.

Michailidis, Miltiadis [Stanford Univ., CA (United↗

Pair production of charged IDM scalars at high energy CLIC

The Compact Linear Collider (CLIC) was proposed as the next energy-frontier infrastructure at CERN, to study e ^+ + e ^- − collisions at three centre-of-mass energy stages: 380,GeV, 1.5,TeV and 3,TeV. The main goal of its high-energy stages is to search for the new physics beyond the Standard Model (SM). The Inert Doublet Model (IDM) is one of the simplest SM extensions and introduces four new scalar particles: H ^\pm ± , A and H; the lightest, H, is stable and hence a natural dark matter (DM) candidate. A set of benchmark points is considered, which are consistent with current theoretical and experimental constraints and promise detectable signals at future colliders. Prospects for observing pair-production of the IDM scalars at CLIC were previously studied using signatures with two leptons in the final state. In the current study, discovery reach for the IDM charged scalar pair-production is considered for the semi-leptonic final state at the two high-energy CLIC stages. Full simulation analysis, based on the current CLIC detector model, is presented for five selected IDM scenarios. Results are then extended to the larger set of benchmarks using the Delphes fast simulation framework. The CLIC detector model for Delphes has been modified to take pile-up contribution from the beam-induced \gamma\gamma γ γ interactions into account, which is crucial for the presented analysis. Results of the study indicate that heavy, charged IDM scalars can be discovered at CLIC for most of the proposed benchmark scenarios, with very high statistical significance.

Klamka, Jan↗

Air quality and public health co-benefits of 100% renewable electricity adoption and electrification pathways in Los Angeles

To demonstrate how a mega city can lead in decarbonizing beyond legal mandates, the city of Los Angeles (LA) developed science-based, feasible pathways towards utilizing 100% renewable energy for its municipally-owned electric utility. Aside from decarbonization, renewable energy adoption can lead to co-benefits such as improving urban air quality from reductions in combustion-related emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), primary fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and others. Herein, we quantify changes to air pollutant concentrations and public health from scenarios of 100% renewable electricity adoption in LA in 2045, alongside aggressive electrification of end-use sectors. Our analysis suggests that while ensuring reliable electricity supply, reductions in emissions of air pollutants associated with the 100% renewable electricity scenarios can lead to 8% citywide reductions of PM 2.5 concentration while increasing ozone concentration by 5% relative to a 2012 baseline year, given identical meteorology conditions. The combination of these concentration changes could result in net monetized public health benefits (driven by avoided deaths) of up to $\$$1.4 billion in year 2045 in LA, results potentially replicable for other city-scale decarbonization scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on A Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy: Preprint

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging the power grid operation. In front of the extreme weather, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outage and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The predicted vulnerable lines of an outage prediction model tool are utilized to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers the schedule of repair crews and mobile energy resources. Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative ones for straightforward analysis. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage level brought by extreme weather and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

mobile energy resources↗

The Impact of Demographic Lifecycle States on Time to Vehicle Purchase: Insights from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics

This study examines the impact of demographic lifecycle stages on the timing of vehicle purchases, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1999 to 2021. Survival analysis was employed to model the duration until households purchase vehicles, incorporating key lifecycle variables such as age, employment status, marital status, childbirth, home ownership, and the presence of school-going children. The life table results indicate that early adulthood (ages 20–35) is the prime period for vehicle acquisition, with significant peaks around ages 25 to 30. Additionally, the instantaneous hazard of purchasing a vehicle is highest in the late 40s and early 50s. According to the Cox proportional hazards model, employment, marital status, and home ownership significantly increase the likelihood of purchasing a vehicle, while living in multi-unit dwellings decreases it. Interaction effects reveal that married individuals with employed spouses are substantially more likely to purchase vehicles. In conclusion, this study serves as a steppingstone toward integrating demographic lifecycle analysis into car ownership modeling that better reflects real-world scenarios and increases the accuracy of policy and strategic planning.

Car ownership↗

Scale-up and techno-economic analysis of microbial electrolysis cells for hydrogen production from wastewater

Microbial electrolysis cells (MECs) have demonstrated high-rate H 2 production while concurrently treating wastewater, but the transition in scale from laboratory research to systems that can be practically applied has encountered challenges. It has been more than a decade since the first pilot-scale MEC was reported, and in recent years, many attempts have been made to overcome the barriers and move the technology to the market. This study provided a detailed analysis of MEC scale-up efforts and summarized the key factors that should be considered to further develop the technology. We compared the major scale-up configurations and systematically evaluated their performance from both technical and economic perspectives. We characterized how system scale-up impacts the key performance metrics such as volumetric current density and H 2 production rate, and we proposed methods to evaluate and optimize system design and fabrication. In addition, preliminary techno-economic analysis indicates that MECs can be profitable in many different market scenarios with or without subsidies. Here, we also provide perspectives on future development needed to transition MEC technology to the marketplace.

42 ENGINEERING↗