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At least 559 records · Page 31

Incorporating geological structure into sensitivity analysis of subsurface contaminant transport

Simulating subsurface contaminant transport at the kilometer-scale often entails modeling reactive flow and transport within and through complex geologic structures. These structures are typically meshed by hand and as a result geologic structure is usually represented by one or a few deterministically generated geological models for uncertainty studies of flow and transport in the subsurface. Uncertainty in geologic structure can have a significant impact on contaminant transport. In this study, the impact of geologic structure on contaminant tracer transport in a shale formation is investigated for a simplified generic deep geologic repository for permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuel. An open-source modeling framework is used to perform a sensitivity analysis study on transport of two tracers from a generic spent nuclear fuel repository with uncertain location of the interfaces between the stratum of the geologic structure. The automated workflow uses sampled realizations of the geological structural model in addition to uncertain flow parameters in a nested sensitivity analysis. Concentration of the tracers at observation points within, in line with, and downstream of the repository are used as the quantities of interest for determining model sensitivity to input parameters and geological realization. Finally, the results of the study indicate that the location of strata interfaces in the geological structure has a first-order impact on tracer transport in the example shale formation, and that this impact may be greater than that of the uncertain flow parameters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Cosmic antihelium-3 nuclei sensitivity of the GAPS experiment

The General Antiparticle Spectrometer (GAPS) is an Antarctic balloon experiment designed for low-energy (0.1-0.3 GeV/n) cosmic antinuclei as signatures of dark matter annihilation or decay. GAPS is optimized to detect low-energy antideuterons, as well as to provide unprecedented sensitivity to low-energy antiprotons and antihelium nuclei. The novel GAPS antiparticle detection technique, based on the formation, decay, and annihilation of exotic atoms, provides greater identification power for these low-energy antinuclei than previous magnetic spectrometer experiments. This work reports the sensitivity of GAPS to detect antihelium-3 nuclei, based on full instrument simulation, event reconstruction, and realistic atmospheric influence simulations. The report of antihelium nuclei candidate events by AMS-02 has generated considerable interest in antihelium nuclei as probes of dark matter and other beyond the Standard Model theories. GAPS is in a unique position to detect or set upper limits on the cosmic antihelium nuclei flux in an energy range that is essentially free of astrophysical background. In three 35-day long-duration balloon flights, GAPS will be sensitive to an antihelium flux on the level of $1.3^{+4.5}_{-1.2} $ ∙ 10 -6 m -2 sr -1 s -1 (GeV/n) -1 (95% confidence level) in the energy range of 0.11-0.3 GeV/n, opening a new window on rare cosmic physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A comparative study of calibration techniques for finite strain elastoplasticity: Numerically-exact sensitivities for FEMU and VFM

Accurate identification of material parameters is crucial for predictive modeling in computational mechanics. Here, the two primary approaches in the experimental mechanics community for calibration from full-field digital image correlation data are known as finite element model updating (FEMU) and the virtual fields method (VFM). In VFM, the objective function is a squared mismatch between internal and external virtual work or power. In FEMU, the objective function quantifies the weighted mismatch between model predictions and corresponding experimentally measured quantities of interest. It is minimized by iteratively updating the parameters of an FE model. While FEMU is seen as more flexible, VFM is commonly used instead of FEMU due to its considerably greater computational expense. However, comparisons between the two methods usually involve approximations of gradients or sensitivities with finite difference schemes, thereby making direct assessments difficult. Hence, in this study, we compare VFM and FEMU in the context of numerically-exact sensitivities obtained through local sensitivity analyses and the application of automatic differentiation software. To this end, we conduct a series of test cases to assess both methods under practical challenges using a finite strain elastoplasticity model.

Automatic differentiation↗

Sensitivity of cellular automata grain structure predictions for high solidification rates

Understanding as-solidified grain structure development during constrained (G 0) alloy solidification conditions is a necessary component of understanding the larger process-microstructure relationships during additive manufacturing (AM) processing. This study applies a cellular automata (CA) model, for static solidification velocities and thermal gradients on the order of those expected in AM melt pools, to investigate grain shape development across ranges of input parameters governing temperature field evolution, nucleation, and growth. Variation in nucleated grain shape from columnar to equiaxed as a function of thermal gradient and nucleation density is modeled with CA and verified against the established transition model of Hunt and Gaumann. Furthermore, while thermal conditions and nucleation density are shown to have the largest roles on microstructure development, the sensitivity of grain structure was very unevenly distributed across parameter space. In particular, it was found that microstructure is very sensitive to mean nucleation undercooling and the interfacial response function in process space regimes near grain structure transitions, but entirely controlled by a combination of thermal gradient, solidification velocity, and nucleation density away from such transitions. The understanding of grain shape sensitivity obtained through CA modeling, particularly at large thermal gradient and nucleation density, will be necessary for accurate microstructure prediction during the extreme processing conditions and large input parameter uncertainty common to AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Application of Thévenin equivalent sensitivity equations for reliable voltage stability assessment

In this paper, sensitivity equations for the Thévenin equivalent parameters, voltage and reactance, are derived using the duality between the Thévenin parameters from two consecutive PMU measurements. Using the sensitivity equation for the Thévenin reactance, a robust adaptive X-Th algorithm is developed aiming to extend a well-known adaptive E-Th approach by being able to accurately estimate the parameters for a wider range of loading conditions. In the performed case studies the resulting accuracy is evaluated when estimating the Thévenin parameters for large disturbances, for two sides with respect to a boundary bus, accommodating sensitivity to topology changes and nonlinearities in power systems. In conclusion, the results can be used for accurate voltage stability assessment using the Thévenin parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Validation and moisture content sensitivity analysis of cross-laminated timber wall assemblies in EnergyPlus

Cross-laminated timber buildings are becoming more common in North America, with many numerical studies showing potential energy savings. However, no studies have validated any EnergyPlus heat transfer algorithms or quantified their accuracy in simulating CLT in building envelopes. This study empirically validates the heat flux predictions for each of EnergyPlus's heat transfer algorithms (Conduction Transfer Functions (CTF), Effective Moisture Penetration Depth (EMPD), Conduction Finite Difference (CondFD), and Heat and Moisture Transfer (HAMT)) for two different CLT ply thicknesses with both summer and winter boundary conditions measured in controlled lab experiments. It also evaluates the model sensitivity of heat flux and heating and cooling loads to moisture content. The 1D validation shows that the HAMT model is the most accurate among all algorithms. All EnergyPlus's heat flux predictions are accurate independent of CLT plate thickness for summer conditions. However, the three constant property algorithms (CTF, EMPD, and CondFD) underpredict heat flux throughout the whole day during winter conditions. The 1D sensitivity analysis indicates that elevated moisture content can increase peak heat fluxes through the material by up to 20 %. Finally, the whole building model sensitivity analysis shows increased heating load and slight cooling load variation due to increased moisture content when using constant property models. The analysis shows significantly lower peak thermal demand (7 % lower heating and 6 % lower cooling) and monthly thermal load (8 % less cooling and 6 % less heating) predictions when using HAMT vs a constant property model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SANDD: A directional antineutrino detector with segmented 6 Li-doped pulse-shape-sensitive plastic scintillator

We present a characterization of a small (9-liter) and mobile 0.1% 6 Li-doped pulse-shape-sensitive plastic scintillator antineutrino detector called SANDD (Segmented AntiNeutrino Directional Detector), constructed for the purpose of near-field reactor monitoring with sensitivity to antineutrino direction. SANDD comprises three different types of module. A detailed Monte Carlo simulation code was developed to match and validate the performance of each of the three modules. The combined model was then used to produce a prediction of the performance of the entire detector. Analysis cuts were established to isolate antineutrino inverse beta decay events while rejecting large fraction of backgrounds. The neutron and positron detection efficiencies are estimated to be 34.8% and 80.2%, respectively, while the coincidence detection efficiency is estimated to be 71.7%, resulting in inverse beta decay detection efficiency of 20.0% ± 0.2%(stat.) ± 2.1%(syst.). Finally, the predicted directional sensitivity of SANDD produces an uncertainty of 20° in the azimuthal direction per 100 detected antineutrino events.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Sensitivity analysis applied to SiC failure probability in TRISO modeled with BISON

Here, a sensitivity analysis on the failure probability of the Silicon Carbide (SiC) layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel during transient conditions predicted by the BISON fuel performance code is performed. The principal goal of the analysis is to understand the most important parameters dictating SiC failure behavior in BISON during Reactivity Initiated Accidents (RIAs). SiC brittle fracture probability is modeled using Weibull statistics. A total of seven inputs related to SiC failure has been selected for the analysis, including the Weibull statistics parameters, elastic moduli for SiC and Pyrolitic Carbon (PyC) and SiC stress-free temperature. A 1D TRISO BISON model has been established for various reactivity insertions performed at the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR). The principal advantage associated with the 1D TRISO model developed in this work is its computational efficiency. The Sobol variance decomposition method is used, and the sensitivity indices are presented for eight different values of the energy deposition. The results show that the two most important parameters impacting the predicted SiC failure probability are the Weibull modulus and the characteristic stress, and a co-variance amongst these parameters is obtained for low reactivity insertions. An additional new finding of this work is that the relative importance of Weibull parameters depends on the energy deposition, and thus reactivity, regime. For low energy depositions, two parameters are of influence on SiC failure probability, while for high energy depositions only one parameter impacts failure probability results. Moreover, optimization of the Weibull modulus and characteristic stress is performed by minimizing the RMSE between BISON failure probability predictions and experimental failure fractions for each energy deposition. This work also demonstrates the validity of the NSRR tests BISON simulations and of the respective sensitivity analysis results as conservative, yet indicative for slower transients characterized by lower deposited energies. Such verification is achieved through the partial extension of the analysis to a group Control Rod Withdrawal reproduced from a previous study. Another novel result of this analysis is that no single set of Weibull parameters can reproduce all reactivity insertion experimental failure results, which is related to the intrinsic nature of SiC failure properties, and a new range for the parameters is proposed to produce a failure probability envelope that encompasses the experimental fractions. Additionaly, this work proposes a new approach for future failure analysis with BISON, consisting in the use of Weibull parameters ranges, rather than fixed sets, along with failure envelopes generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Year-around survey and manipulation experiments reveal differential sensitivities of soil prokaryotic and fungal communities to saltwater intrusion in Florida Everglades wetlands

Global sea-level rise is transforming coastal ecosystems, especially freshwater wetlands, in part due to increased episodic or chronic saltwater exposure, leading to shifts in biogeochemistry, plant- and microbial communities, as well as ecological services. Yet, it is still difficult to predict how soil microbial communities respond to the saltwater exposure because of poorly understood microbial sensitivity within complex wetland soil microbial communities, as well as the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of wetland soils and saltwater exposure. To address this, we first conducted a two-year survey of microbial community structure and bottom water chemistry in submerged surface soils from 14 wetland sites across the Florida Everglades. We identified ecosystem-specific microbial biomarker taxa primarily associated with variation in salinity. Bacterial, archaeal and fungal community composition differed between freshwater, mangrove, and marine seagrass meadow sites, irrespective of soil type or season. Especially, methanogens, putative denitrifying methanotrophs and sulfate reducers shifted in relative abundance and/or composition between wetland types. Methanogens and putative denitrifying methanotrophs declined in relative abundance from freshwater to marine wetlands, whereas sulfate reducers showed the opposite trend. A four-year experimental simulation of salt-water intrusion in a pristine freshwater site and a previously saltwater-impacted site corroborated the highest sensitivity and relative increase of sulfate reducers, as well as taxon-specific sensitivity of methanogens, in response to continuously pulsing of saltwater treatment. Collectively, these results suggest that besides increased salinity, saltwater-mediated increased sulfate availability leads to displacement of methanogens by sulfate reducers even at low or temporal salt exposure. In conclusion, these changes of microbial composition could affect organic matter degradation pathways in coastal freshwater wetlands exposed to sea-level rise, with potential consequences, such as loss of stored soil organic carbon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

IFNgamma-inducible CXCL10/CXCR3 axis alters the sensitivity of HEp-2 cells to ionizing radiation

Highlights: • IFNgamma/CXCL10/CXCR3 are necessary for effective IR-induced HEp-2 cell killing. • Local IR showed fewer effects on tumor burden in mice carrying CXCL10-KO xenografts. • Loss of CXCL10 showed blockage in the G0/G1 phase when exposed to a moderate dose of IR. Radiotherapy is a conventional approach for anti-cancer treatment, killing tumor cells through damaging cellular DNA. While increasing studies have demonstrated that tumors generated the tolerance to radiation and tumor immune system was found to be correlated to radiotherapy resistance. Therefore, it is critical to identify potential immune factors associated with the efficacy of radiotherapy. Here in this study, we evaluated the sensitivities of different tumor cells to radiation and determined HEp-2 cells as the radio-resistant tumor cells for further investigation. IFNgamma as a key regulator of host immune response showed the potential to sensitize tumors to ionizing radiation (IR). Besides, IFNgamma-induced CXC chemokine ligand 10 (CXCL10) was found to be necessary for effective IR-induced killing of cultured HEp-2 cells. Increased clonogenic survival was observed in CXCL10-depleted HEp-2 cells and CXCL10-KO cells. Additionally, the loss of CXCL10 in HEp-2 cells showed less progression of the G0/G1 phase to G2/M when exposed to IR (8 Gy). Local IR (20 Gy) to nude mice bearing HEp-2 tumors significantly reduced tumor burden, while fewer effects on tumor burden in mice carrying CXCL10-KO tumors were observed. We furtherly evaluated the possible roles the chemokine receptor CXCR3 plays in mediating the sensitivity of cultured HEp-2 cells to IR. Altered expression of CXCR3 in HEp-2 cells affected IR-induced killing of HEp-2 cells. Our data suggest the IFNgamma-activated CXCL10/CXCR3 axis may contribute to the effective radiation-induced killing of HEp-2 cells in vitro.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DNA Origami Incorporated into Solid-State Nanopores Enables Enhanced Sensitivity for Precise Analysis of Protein Translocations

The rapidly advancing field of nanotechnology is driving the development of precise sensing methods at the nanoscale, with solid-state nanopores emerging as promising tools for biomolecular sensing. Here, this study investigates the increased sensitivity of solid-state nanopores achieved by integrating DNA origami structures, leading to the improved analysis of protein translocations. Using holo human serum transferrin (holo-hSTf) as a model protein, we compared hybrid nanopores incorporating DNA origami with open solid-state nanopores. Results show a significant enhancement in holo-hSTf detection sensitivity with DNA origami integration, suggesting a unique role of DNA interactions beyond confinement. This approach holds potential for ultrasensitive protein detection in biosensing applications, offering advancements in biomedical research and diagnostic tool development for diseases with low-abundance protein biomarkers. Further exploration of origami designs and nanopore configurations promises even greater sensitivity and versatility in the detection of a wider range of proteins, paving the way for advanced biosensing technologies.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

An Antibody Cocktail-Based Immunoaffinity-LC-MS Method Enabled Ultra-Sensitive and Robust Quantification of Circulating Proinsulin Proteoforms and C-Peptide

Accurately measuring circulating proinsulin proteoforms is crucial for clinical investigation of diabetes, but was previously not feasible owing to limited assay specificity/sensitivity. Here, in this study, we devised a highly sensitive LC-MS-based strategy to quantify intact proinsulin, des-31,32 and des-64,65 proinsulin, and C-peptide in circulation. The method involves: (i) quantitative, robust affinity capture using an optimized antibody cocktail, eliminating the severe quantitative bias across multiple proteoforms typically introduced when using a single antibody; (ii) Lys-C digestion producing unique signature peptides for each proteoform, and (iii) trapping-nano-LC coupled with FAIMS/dCV-MS for an ultrasensitive analysis. The selective trapping/delivery ensured sensitive/selective analysis of the targets while achieving excellent analytical robustness that is critical for clinical assays, and the FAIMS/dCV substantially reduces baseline noise/interferences, further enhancing S/N. The assay achieved exceptional sensitivity, with serum LOQs of 1.7, 2.3, and 3.6 pg/mL respectively for intact-proinsulin, des-31,32 and des-64,65, representing the first assay capable of sensitively quantifying these major circulating proinsulin proteoforms. We applied this assay to 78 subjects, including autoantibody positive (n = 20) and new-onset type 1 diabetes (T1D, n = 19) with respective age/sex/BMI-matched controls, enabling the first accurate profiling of proinsulin proteoforms in clinical groups. The assay results demonstrated a clear separation of control and new-onset T1D groups that a parallel total-proinsulin ELISA assay fails to capture. Furthermore, distinct expression patterns in relative abundance ratios among proteoforms were observed across clinical groups. This assay may provide valuable insights into the β-cell functions and the onset/progression of diabetes and other associated conditions. Moreover, the strategy is broadly applicable to targeted measurement of other biomarker proteoforms.

Shen, Qingqing [University at Buffalo, NY (United ↗

A Unified Workflow for Sensitivity-Based Kinetic Analysis in Microkinetic Models

Degrees of rate control (DRC), apparent activation energies, and apparent reaction orders are established local sensitivity diagnostics for interpreting microkinetic models, but applying them routinely to large mechanisms often requires substantial reaction-specific bookkeeping, perturbation design, and postprocessing. Here, in this study, we present a unified derivative-based workflow that evaluates these quantities from a single compiled reaction-network model and target-rate definition. For any user-provided microkinetic model, the workflow compiles the mechanism into stoichiometrically consistent mass-action rate equations, solves the surface dynamics, and uses automatic differentiation to compute sensitivities with respect to rate constants, temperature, and gas partial pressures. By combining their calculations in the same framework, the workflow clearly demonstrates the relationships between different DRCs and the apparent activation energy. Using existing examples of propylene partial oxidation and methane oxidation on Pd(100), we verify expected transient redistribution of rate control, distinguish net Campbell DRCs from one-sided directional sensitivities, and show how apparent activation energy can be reconstructed either from one-sided DRCs or from state-based DRCs while critical mechanistic insights are obtained consistently. In the methane oxidation case, a pathway-subset test further illustrates how a simplified mechanism preserves key kinetic signatures of a full model, showing the potential of our user-friendly tool for model construction beyond kinetic analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Peptoid-Based Programmable 2D Nanomaterial Sensor for Selective and Sensitive Detection of H 2 S in Live Cells

During the past decades, a variety of two-dimensional (2D) nanosheets have been developed through supramolecular self-assembly. Among them, those assembled from sequence-defined molecules have received particularly attention because they enable a precise displaying of functional groups, including fluorescent dyes, within nanosheet surfaces. On the other hand, due to the fluorescence self-quenching, synthesis of organic 2D nanosheets exhibiting high fluorescence quantum yields is a significant challenge. Herein, we report the utilization of H 2 S-responsive probes as peptoid sidechains to design and synthesize crystalline 2D nanomembranes (2DNMs) as selective and sensitive H 2 S sensors. These 2DNM sensors exhibit a high quantum yield as a result of high crystallinity and tunable probe density. Compared with amorphous state of peptoid assembly and pre-assembled peptoid-probe conjugates, these crystalline 2DNM sensors exhibit a significantly strong fluorescence intensity and a high sensitivity (~ 0.36 nM). By sonication-cutting these 2DNM sensors into a colloidal form in aqueous solution, we further demonstrated the use of colloidal 2DNMs for detecting both exogenous and endogenous H 2 S inside cells or targeted cell organelles. As far as we know, this is the first example of using sequence-defined 2D nanomaterials for selective and sensitive detection of H 2 S. Because peptoids are biocompatible and peptoid-based 2DNMs are highly programmable, we expect that this new class of 2DNM sensors offer great potentials for detecting H 2 S and for biological applications.

2D nanomaterials↗

Enhanced Stability and Sensitivity for CA-125 Detection Under Microfluidic Shear Flow Using Polyethylene Glycol-Coated Biosensor

The microfluidic-based point-of-care (POC) diagnostic tool has garnered significant interest in recent years, offering rapid and cost-effective disease detection. There is a growing trend toward integrating microfluidic platforms with biosensors, aligning lab-on-a-chip technologies with POC diagnostic devices. Despite numerous efforts to incorporate biosensors into microfluidic systems, researchers have performed very limited investigations on the stability of biomarker detection when biosensors operate under microfluidic shear flow conditions. Gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) are a widely employed material in capacitive biosensors for antibody immobilization and sensitivity enhancement. However, AuNPs have limitations in providing stable detection of biomarkers within microfluidic shear flow due to their agglomeration nature. This study addresses these limitations by employing 2 kDa polyethylene glycol (PEG) as an intermediate biofunctional layer to immobilize CA-125 antibodies on gold-interdigitated electrodes for the stable and accurate detection of CA-125 antigens. The stabilities and sensitivities of AuNPs and PEG-coated biosensors are evaluated under both static drop and microfluidic shear flow conditions for CA-125 antigen detection. The experimental results demonstrate a capacitive signal response (5660 pF at 10 kHz) 2.2 times higher using the PEG-coated biosensor than the signal (2551 pF at 10 kHz) measured by the AuNP-coated biosensor in the detection of CA-125 antigen–antibody conjugation under static drop conditions, indicating the higher sensitivity of the PEG-coated biosensor. Additionally, the PEG-coated biosensor exhibits better consistency for the CA-125 antigen detection between static drop and microfluidic shear flow conditions (Cp decrease in percentage (ΔCp%↓) = 2.9% at 10 kHz) compared to the electrical signals measured using the AuNP-coated biosensor (ΔCp%↓ = 32.4% at 10 kHz), which suggests that the PEG-coated biosensor demonstrates higher stability for CA-125 antigen detection under microfluidic shear flow conditions. With these significant improvements brought by the PEG-coated biosensor, especially under microfluidic conditions, a substantial hurdle in developing electrical biosensors for POC diagnostic applications has been overcome, expediting further advancements in the field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Estimating the Acute Health Impacts of Fire-Originated PM 2.5 Exposure During the 2017 California Wildfires: Sensitivity to Choices of Inputs

Exposure to wildfire smoke increases the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. Health impact assessments, used to inform decision-making processes, characterize the health impacts of environmental exposures by combining preexisting epidemiological concentration–response functions (CRFs) with estimates of exposure. These two key inputs influence the magnitude and uncertainty of the health impacts estimated, but for wildfire-related impact assessments the extent of their impact is largely unknown. We first estimated the number of respiratory, cardiovascular, and asthma hospital admissions attributable to fire-originated PM 2.5 exposure in central California during the October 2017 wildfires, using Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty with respect to the exposure and epidemiological inputs. We next conducted sensitivity analyses, comparing four estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 and two CRFs, wildfire and nonwildfire specific, to understand their impact on the estimation of excess admissions and sources of uncertainty. We estimate the fires accounted for an excess 240 (95% CI: 114, 404) respiratory, 68 (95% CI: -10, 159) cardiovascular, and 45 (95% CI: 18, 81) asthma hospital admissions, with 56% of admissions occurring in the Bay Area. Although differences between impact assessment methods are not statistically significant, the admissions estimates' magnitude is particularly sensitive to the CRF specified while the uncertainty is most sensitive to estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 . Not accounting for the exposure surface's uncertainty leads to an underestimation of the uncertainty of the health impacts estimated. Employing context-specific CRFs and using accurate exposure estimates that combine multiple data sets generates more certain estimates of the acute health impacts of wildfires.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The FastEddy® Resident-GPU Accelerated Large-Eddy Simulation Framework: Moist Dynamics Extension, Validation and Sensitivities of Modeling Non-Precipitating Shallow Cumulus Clouds

Herein we describe the moist dynamics formulation implemented within the graphics processing unit-resident large-eddy simulation FastEddy® model, which includes a simple saturation adjustment scheme for condensation and evaporation processes. Two LES model intercomparison exercises for non-precipitating shallow cumulus clouds are simulated in order to validate this model extension, including a static forcing and a time-dependent forcing case. Overall, we find our dynamical, thermodynamical and microphysical quantities, along with turbulence variability and fluxes, to be commensurate with the corresponding model intercomparison results. In addition, sensitivities to specific model settings are investigated. Among these settings, it is shown that boundary layer and cloud layer structure and characteristics are sensitive to use of higher-order advection schemes impacting the vertical distribution of cloud content and associated turbulence statistics. Increasing the timescale of the saturation scheme leads to enhanced liquid water presence and decreases vertical velocity variance within the cloud deck. In some cases, these sensitivities agree with the model-to-model variability reported in the intercomparison exercises, highlighting the important role of specific model implementation choices in the context of shallow cumulus convection simulations. These analyses and findings also provide the basis for future extensions and applications of FastEddy® for modeling moist convection and precipitation scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Wind and Turbulence Predictions With Mesoscale‐Coupled Large Eddy Simulations Using Ensemble Machine Learning

Abstract Coupling between mesoscale models and large‐eddy simulation (LES) models is increasingly used to more realistically represent the wide range of scales of atmospheric motions affecting boundary layer winds and turbulence that need to be simulated accurately for applications such as wind energy. However, such mesoscale‐to‐microscale coupled modeling frameworks are potentially affected by a large number of uncertain closure parameters. Here, we investigate the sensitivity associated with six closure parameters related to a 1.5‐order subgrid‐scale turbulence closure for an ensemble of mesoscale‐coupled LES. The simulations are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model nested from horizontal resolutions of greater than a kilometer down to tens of meters. Closure parameters are varied to generate perturbed parameter ensembles for two case studies of highly sheared, convective boundary layers observed in the Columbia Basin of Oregon and Washington during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project. Machine learning algorithms are used to explore the sensitivity of LES predictions, considering the effects of the perturbed physical parameters alongside categorical factors such as the case study identity, measurement location, and LES resolution. For the conditions we examine, a single parameter, the eddy viscosity coefficient, is the dominant source of parametric sensitivity and its importance is comparable to the categorical factors for several of the simulation response variables we examine.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗