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At least 559 records · Page 31

Sensitivity Analysis of Cf-252 (sf) Neutron and Gamma Observables in CGMF

CGMF is a Monte Carlo code that simulates the decay of primary fission fragments by emission of neutrons and gamma rays, according to the Hauser-Feshbach equations. As the CGMF code was recently integrated into the MCNP6.2 transport code, great emphasis has been placed on providing optimal parameters to CGMF such that many different observables are accurately represented. Of these observables, the prompt neutron spectrum, prompt neutron multiplicity, prompt gamma spectrum, and prompt gamma multiplicity are crucial for accurate transport simulations of criticality and nonproliferation applications. This contribution to the ongoing efforts to improve CGMF presents a study of the sensitivity of various neutron and gamma observables to several input parameters for Californium-252 spontaneous fission. Among the most influential parameters are those that affect the input yield distributions in fragment mass and total kinetic energy (TKE). A new scheme for representing Y(A,TKE) was implemented in CGMF using three fission modes, S1, S2 and SL. The sensitivity profiles were calculated for 17 total parameters, which show that the neutron multiplicity distribution is strongly affected by the TKE distribution of the fragments. The total excitation energy (TXE) of the fragments is shared according to a parameter RT, which is defined as the ratio of the light to heavy initial temperatures. The sensitivity profile of the neutron multiplicity shows a second order effect of RT on the mean neutron multiplicity. A final sensitivity profile was produced for the parameter alpha, which affects the spin of the fragments. Higher values of alpha lead to higher fragment spins, which inhibit the emission of neutrons. Understanding the sensitivity of the prompt neutron and gamma observables to the many CGMF input parameters provides a platform for the optimization of these parameters.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Modeling Input Parameters on Wind Turbine Loads in Deterministic Transient Load Cases

Aero-hydro-elastic-servo numerical models used to design and analyze wind turbines are based on thousands of variable input parameters that dictate the inflow, aerodynamic, structural, and control characteristics of the system as well as sea state, hydrodynamic, and mooring characteristics for fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind turbines. Each of these parameters has some level of uncertainty, which can significantly impact the predicted loads. Understanding the uncertainty in the inputs is critical to understanding the uncertainty in the outputs. This work demonstrates a screening technique to identify which parameters ultimate loads are most sensitive to so that more focus can be given to quantifying the possible range of those parameters. This technique has been demonstrated previously for different turbine and load case types and is extended here for a floating offshore wind turbine in design load cases with transient events both in the inflow and operations. Each load case features a deterministic gust, including variations in wind speed, direction, and shear. Load cases are considered with an operating turbine as well as with prescribed fault, startup, and shutdown procedures. The study found that key input parameters with a large impact on loads include the length of the gust, the magnitude of direction change and speed in the gust, the initial wind speed, and the shape of the gust profile.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Aeroelastic optimization of a helicopter rotor using an efficient sensitivity analysis

To reduce oscillatory hub loads in forward flight, a structural optimization analysis of a hingeless helicopter rotor has been developed and applied. The aeroelastic analysis of the rotor is based on a finite element method in space and time, and linked with automated optimization algorithms. For the optimization analysis two types of structural representation are used: a generic stiffness-distribution and a single-cell thin-walled beam. For the first type, the design variables are nonstructural mass and its placement, chordwise center of gravity offset from the elastic axis, and stiffness. For the second type, width, height and thickness of spar are used as design variables. For the behavior constraints, frequency placement, autorotational inertia and aeroelastic stability of the blade are included. The required sensitivity derivatives are obtained using a direct analytical approach. An optimum oscillatory hub load shows a 25-77 percent reduction for the generic blade, and 30-50 percent reduction for the box-beam.

Lim, Joon W.↗

Sensitivity analysis of limit state functions for probability-based plastic design

The evaluation of the total probability of a plastic collapse failure P sub f for a highly redundant structure of random interdependent plastic moments acted on by random interdepedent loads is a difficult and computationally very costly process. The evaluation of reasonable bounds to this probability requires the use of second moment algebra which involves man statistical parameters. A computer program which selects the best strategy for minimizing the interval between upper and lower bounds of P sub f is now in its final stage of development. The relative importance of various uncertainties involved in the computational process on the resulting bounds of P sub f, sensitivity is analyzed. Response sensitivities for both mode and system reliability of an ideal plastic portal frame are shown.

Frangopol, D. M.↗

Cross-Code verification and sensitivity analysis to effectively model the electrothermal instability

This manuscript presents verification cases that are developed to study the electrothermal instability (ETI). Specific verification cases are included to ensure that the unit physics components necessary to model the ETI are accurate, providing a path for fluid-based codes to effectively simulate ETI in the linear and nonlinear growth regimes. Two software frameworks with different algorithmic approaches are compared for accuracy in their ability to simulate diffusion of a magnetic field, linear growth of the ETI, and a fully nonlinear ETI evolution. The nonlinear ETI simulations show early time agreement, with some differences emerging, as noted in the wavenumber spectrum, late into the nonlinear development of ETI. Here, a sensitivity study explores the role of equation-of-state (EOS), vacuum density, and vacuum resistivity. EOS and vacuum resistivity are found to be the most critical factors in the modeling of nonlinear ETI development.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Design tradeoff studies and sensitivity analysis, appendix B

Further work was performed on the Near Term Hybrid Passenger Vehicle Development Program. Fuel economy on the order of 2 to 3 times that of a conventional vehicle, with a comparable life cycle cost, is possible. The two most significant factors in keeping the life cycle cost down are the retail price increment and the ratio of battery replacement cost to battery life. Both factors can be reduced by reducing the power rating of the electric drive portion of the system relative to the system power requirements. The type of battery most suitable for the hybrid, from the point of view of minimizing life cycle cost, is nickel-iron. The hybrid is much less sensitive than a conventional vehicle is, in terms of the reduction in total fuel consumption and resultant decreases in operating expense, to reductions in vehicle weight, tire rolling resistance, etc., and to propulsion system and drivetrain improvements designed to improve the brake specific fuel consumption of the engine under low road load conditions. It is concluded that modifications to package the propulsion system and battery pack can be easily accommodated within the confines of a modified carryover body such as the Ford Ltd.

Source record↗

Dynamic modeling and sensitivity analysis of solar thermal energy conversion systems

Since the energy input to solar thermal conversion systems is both time variant and probabilistic, it is unlikely that simple steady-state methods for estimating lifetime performance will provide satisfactory results. The work described here uses dynamic modeling to begin identifying what must be known about input radiation and system dynamic characteristics to estimate performance reliably. Daily operation of two conceptual solar energy systems was simulated under varying operating strategies with time-dependent radiation intensity ranging from smooth input of several magnitudes to input of constant total energy whose intensity oscillated with periods from 1/4 hour to 6 hours. Integrated daily system output and efficiency were functions of both level and dynamic characteristics of insolation. Sensitivity of output to changes in total input was greater than one.

Hamilton, C. L.↗

Forward sensitivity analysis and mode dependent control for closure modeling of Galerkin systems

Model reduction by projection-based approaches is often associated with losing some of the important features that contribute towards the dynamics of the retained scales. As a result, a mismatch occurs between the predicted trajectories of the original system and the truncated one. We put forth a framework to apply a continuous time control signal in the latent space of the reduced order model (ROM) to account for the effect of truncation. We set the control input using parameterized models by following energy transfer principles. Our methodology relies on observing the system behavior in the physical space and using the projection operator to restrict the feedback signal into the latent space. Then, we leverage the forward sensitivity method (FSM) to derive relationships between the feedback and the desired mode-dependent control. We test the performance of the proposed approach using two test cases, corresponding to viscous Burgers and vortex merger problems at high Reynolds number. Results show that the ROM trajectory with the applied FSM control closely matches its target values in both the data-dense and data-sparse regimes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sensitivity Analysis and Optimization of Enclosure Radiation with Applications to Crystal Growth

In engineering, simulation software is often used as a convenient means for carrying out experiments to evaluate physical systems. The benefit of using simulations as 'numerical' experiments is that the experimental conditions can be easily modified and repeated at much lower cost than the comparable physical experiment. The goal of these experiments is to 'improve' the process or result of the experiment. In most cases, the computational experiments employ the same trial and error approach as their physical counterparts. When using this approach for complex systems, the cause and effect relationship of the system may never be fully understood and efficient strategies for improvement never utilized. However, it is possible when running simulations to accurately and efficiently determine the sensitivity of the system results with respect to simulation to accurately and efficiently determine the sensitivity of the system results with respect to simulation parameters (e.g., initial conditions, boundary conditions, and material properties) by manipulating the underlying computations. This results in a better understanding of the system dynamics and gives us efficient means to improve processing conditions. We begin by discussing the steps involved in performing simulations. Then we consider how sensitivity information about simulation results can be obtained and ways this information may be used to improve the process or result of the experiment. Next, we discuss optimization and the efficient algorithms which use sensitivity information. We draw on all this information to propose a generalized approach for integrating simulation and optimization, with an emphasis on software programming issues. After discussing our approach to simulation and optimization we consider an application involving crystal growth. This application is interesting because it includes radiative heat transfer. We discuss the computation of radiative new factors and the impact this mode of heat transfer has on our approach. Finally, we will demonstrate the results of our optimization.

Tiller, Michael M.↗

Sensitivity Analysis Tool for Electrochemical Conversion of CO 2 To CO: User Guide

This is the user guide for the tool described here: Development of technologies that convert carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into products is part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Conversion Program portfolio. One such technology under development converts CO 2 to value-added products via electrochemical reduction, where catalysts are used on the cathode to promote CO 2 conversion across the electrochemical catalyst (ECC) cell. Broadly, the ECC is integrated with balance of plant (BOP) equipment (e.g., compressors, pumps, heat exchangers, purification units) in system configurations to produce the desired product. To guide research and development (R&D) toward advancements that may make such conversion technologies economically competitive, researchers may use sensitivity analyses related to the ECC system cost and performance, including that of the cathodic and anodic catalysts. This tool is intended to inform developers and Program in assessing proposed R&D on ECC systems early in the development process. Results will guide researchers on where efforts would be best directed. The tool may be accessed here: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=55293cb1-6881-4181-a2b0-d00b711ce74b.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sensitivity analysis in multipole-accelerated panel methods for potential flow

In the design of an airframe, the effect of changing the geometry on resulting computations is necessary for design optimization. The geometry is defined in terms of a series of design variables, including design variables to define the wing planform, tail, canard, pylon, and nacelle. Design optimization in this research is based on how these design variable affect the potential flow. The potential flow is computed as a function of the geometry and location of a series of panels describing the airframe, which are in turn a function of the design variables. Multipole accelerated panel methods improve the computational complexity of the problem and thus are an attractive approach. To utilize the methods in design optimization, it was necessary to define the appropriate sensitivity derivatives. The overhead incurred from finding the sensitivity derivatives in conjunction with the original computation should be small. This research developed the background for multipole-accelerated panel methods and the framework for finding sensitivity derivatives in the methods. Potential flow panel codes are commonly used for powered-lift aerodynamic predictions for three dimensional geometries. Given an airframe which has been discretized into a series of panels to define the airframe geometry, potential is computed as a function of the influence of all panels on all other panels. This is a computationally intensive problem for which efficient solutions are desired to improve the computational time and to allow greater resolution by use of more panels. One such solution is the use of hierarchical multipole methods which entail approximations of the effects of far-field terms. Hierarchical multipole methods have become prevalent in molecular dynamics and gravitational physics, and have been introduced into the fields of capacitance calculations, computational fluid dynamics, and electromagnetics. The methods utilize multipole expansions to describe the effect of bodies (i.e. particles, astrophysical bodies, panels, etc.) within a sphere on points distant from the sphere, where the influence diminishes as a function of distance. The expansions are exact with infinite series, however, for practical computations, the series are truncated and accuracy is selected based on the number of terms retained in the expansions. A hierarchical tree structure groups bodies together based on proximity to allow definition of multipole expansions for each group. The multipole expansions are then used to compute the effect of the bodies in a group on distant bodies.

Leathrum, James F., Jr.↗

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of the SparTen High Performance Sparse Tensor Decomposition Software (Extended Analysis)

Tensor decomposition models play an increasingly important role in modern data science applications. One problem of particular interest is fitting a low-rank Canonical Polyadic (CP) tensor decomposition model when the tensor has sparse structure and the tensor elements are nonnegative count data. SparTen is a high-performance C++ library which computes a low-rank decomposition using different solvers: a first-order quasi-Newton or a second-order damped Newton method, along with the appropriate choice of runtime parameters. Since default parameters in SparTen are tuned to experimental results in prior published work on a single real-world dataset conducted using MATLAB implementations of these methods, it remains unclear if the parameter defaults in SparTen are appropriate for general tensor data. Furthermore, it is unknown how sensitive algorithm convergence is to changes in the input parameter values. This report addresses these unresolved issues with large-scale experimentation on three benchmark tensor data sets. Experiments were conducted on several different CPU architectures and replicated with many initial states to establish generalized profiles of algorithm convergence behavior.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deep-space navigation with differenced data types. Part 3: An expanded information content and sensitivity analysis

An approximate six-parameter analytic model for Earth-based differential range measurements is presented and is used to derive a representative analytic approximation for differenced Doppler measurements. The analytical models are tasked to investigate the ability of these data types to estimate spacecraft geocentric angular motion, Deep Space Network station oscillator (clock/frequency) offsets, and signal-path calibration errors over a period of a few days, in the presence of systematic station location and transmission media calibration errors. Quantitative results indicate that a few differenced Doppler plus ranging passes yield angular position estimates with a precision on the order of 0.1 to 0.4 micro-rad, and angular rate precision on the order of 10 to 25 x 10(exp -12) rad/sec, assuming no a priori information on the coordinate parameters. Sensitivity analyses suggest that troposphere zenith delay calibration error is the dominant systematic error source in most of the tracking scenarios investigated; as expected, the differenced Doppler data were found to be much more sensitive to troposphere calibration errors than differenced range. By comparison, results computed using wideband and narrowband (delta) VLBI under similar circumstances yielded angular precisions of 0.07 to 0.4 micro-rad, and angular rate precisions of 0.5 to 1.0 x 10(exp -12) rad/sec.

Estefan, J. A.↗

Moving Bed Chemical Looping Combustion Fuel Reactor Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis

Chemical looping combustion (CLC) is a novel, coal-based power generation technology that has currently achieved only small-scale, non-integrated development status, with the fuel reactor being the key developmental component in the CLC process. Both circulating fluidized bed (CFB) and moving bed fuel reactors have been the subjects of ongoing development campaigns. The objective of the effort described in this report is to characterize a moving bed fuel reactor by applying more detailed, reaction kinetics-based models that represent the nature of this reactor with a more fundamental foundation than has previously been reported by developers. This report describes the modeling basis, and a “base” fuel reactor’s design and performance characteristics resulting from the model. A major focus of the evaluation has been placed on studies of the sensitivity of the base moving bed fuel reactor performance, design, and CLC power plant cost implications to the key parameters.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Requirements and sensitivity analysis for temporally- and spatially-resolved thermometry using neutron resonance spectroscopy

Neutron resonance spectroscopy (NRS) has been used extensively to make temperature measurements that are accurate, absolute, and nonperturbative within the interior of material samples under extreme conditions applied quasistatically. Yet NRS has seldom been used in dynamic experiments. There is a compelling incentive to do so because of the significant shortcomings of alternative techniques. An important barrier to adopting dynamic NRS thermometry is the difficulty in fielding it with conventional spallation neutron sources. To enable time-dependent and spatially resolved temperature measurements in dynamic environments, more compact neutron sources that can be used at user facilities in conjunction with other diagnostic probes (such as x-ray light sources) are required. Such sources may be available using ultrafast high-intensity optical lasers. We evaluate such possibilities by determining the sensitivities of the temperature estimate on neutron-beam and diagnostic parameters. Based on that evaluation, requirements are set on a pulsed neutron-source and diagnostics to make a meaningful dynamic temperature measurement. Dynamic thermometry measurements are examined in this context when driven by two alternative fast-neutron sources: the Los Alamos Neutron Scattering Center (LANSCE) proton accelerator driving isotropic spallation neutrons as a baseline and a laser-plasma ion accelerator driving a neutron beam from deuterium breakup. Strategies to close the gap between the required and demonstrated performance of laser-based fast-neutron sources are presented. A short-pulse high-intensity laser with state-of-the-art pulse contrast and an energy of a few hundred Joules would drive a compact neutron source suitable for NRS thermometry that could transform the dynamic study of materials.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Sensitivity analysis of a layered piezoelectric system using ZFEM

The complex variable finite element method (ZFEM) is a numerical technique which aims to find the partial derivatives of the independent variables with respect to variation in dependent parameters declared in the physics. This is done by combining the complex Taylor series expansion within the weak formulation of the governing equation in a coupled system of linear equations forming a complex valued block matrix given by the Cauchy–Riemann matrix representation. In this work, two-dimensional linear first-order elements have been implemented in ZFEM to predict the design derivatives of the mechanical displacement field and the voltage potential field for a layered piezoelectric system in a steady-state study with Dirichlet boundary condition applied at the top and bottom edges of the geometry. This approach allows the standard FEM solution to quantify the sensitivity of the mechanical displacement and voltage potential fields with respect to small variations in the material properties through the information obtained from the computation of the derivatives. The domain is formed by a layered body with PZT-4 and PZT-5 stacked together. For result verification, the numerical solution obtained with ZFEM was compared to results from a commercial FEM package and the solution from the imaginary part was compared to the exact solution of a well-known benchmark problem. In conclusion, comparison of the results showed good agreement for both the real and imaginary parts of the solution and the largest sensitivities were found in PZT-5 specifically in C 13 , C 33 , and ε 33 .

42 ENGINEERING↗

Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1-D Lake Model Across Global Lakes

Lakes have important influence on weather and climate from local to global scales. However, their prediction using numerical models is notoriously difficult because lakes are highly heterogeneous across the globe, but observations are sparse. In this study, we assessed the performance of a 1-D lake model in simulating the thermal structures of 58 lakes with diverse morphometric and geographic characteristics by following the phase 2a local lake protocol of the Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). After calibration, the root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were below 2 °C for 70% and 75% of the lakes for epilimnion and full-profile temperature simulations, with an average of 1.71 °C and 1.43 °C, respectively. The model performance mainly depended on lake shape rather than location, supporting the possibility of grouping model parameters by lake shape for global applications. Furthermore, through machine-learning based parameter sensitivity tests, we identified turbulent heat fluxes, wind-driven mixing and water transparency as the major processes controlling lake thermal and mixing regimes. Snow density was also important for modeling the ice phenology of high-latitude lakes. The relative influence of the key processes and the corresponding parameters mainly depended on lake latitude and depth. Turbulent heat fluxes showed a decreasing importance in affecting epilimnion temperature with increasing latitude. Wind-driven mixing was less influential to lake stratification for deeper lakes while the impact of light extinction, on the contrary, showed a positive correlation with depth. Our findings may guide improvements in 1-D lake model parameterizations to achieve higher fidelity in simulating global lake thermal dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Joint Characterization of Vegetation by Satellite Observations from Visible to Microwave Wavelengths - A Sensitivity Analysis

This study presents an evaluation and comparison of visible, near-infrared, passive, and active microwave observations for vegetation characterization on a global basis for a year, with spatial resolution compatible with climatological studies. Visible and near-infrared observations along with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index come from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer. An atlas of monthly mean microwave land surface emissivities from 19 to 85 GHz has been calculated from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager for a year, suppressing the atmospheric problems encountered with the use of simple channel combinations. The active microwave measurements are provided by the ERS-1 scatterometer at 5.25 GHz. The capacity to discriminate between vegetation types and to detect the vegetation phenology is assessed in the context of a vegetation classification obtained from in situ observations. A clustering technique derived from the Kohonen topological maps is used to merge the three data sets and interpret their relative variations. NDVI varies with vegetation density but is not very sensitive in semiarid environments and in forested areas. Spurious seasonal cycles and large spatial variability in several areas suggest that atmospheric contamination and/or solar zenith angle drift still affect the NDVI.

NORMALIZED DIFFERENCE VEGETATIVE INDEX↗