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NASA NTRS1985

Solar-geophysical data number 490, June 1985. Part 1: (Prompt reports). Data for May 1985, April 1985 and late data

Contents include: detailed index for 1984 to 1985; data for May 1985--(IUWDS alert periods (Advance and Worldwide) solar activity indices, solar flares, solar radio emission, Stanford mean solar magnetic field); data for April 1985--(solar active regions, sudden ionospheric disturbances, solar radio spectral observations, cosmic ray measurements by neutron monitor, geomagnetic indices, radio propagation indices); and late data--(geomagnetic indices, cosmic rays, calcium plage data).

Coffey, H. E.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Solar-geophysical data number 493, September 1985. Part 1: (Prompt reports). Data for August 1985, July 1985 and late data

Topics covered include: detailed index for 1985; data for August 1985--(IUWDS alert periods (Advanced and Worldwide), solar activity indices, solar flares, solar radio emission, Stanford mean solar magnetic field); (solar active regions, sudden ionospheric disturbances, solar radio spectral observations, cosmic ray measurements by neutron monitor, geomagnetic indices, radio propagation indices); and late data--calcium plage data.

Coffey, H. E.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Solar-geophysical data number 494, October 1985. Part 1: (Prompt reports). Data for September 1985, August 1985 and late data

Data for August and September 1985 on IUWDS alert periods (advance and worldwide), solar activity indices, solar flares, solar radio emission, Stanford mean solar magnetic fields, solar active regions, sudden ionospheric disturbances, solar radio spectral observations, cosmic ray measurements, geomagnetic indices, radio porpagation indices, inferred interplanetary magnetic field polarity, preliminary solar proton event list, and calcium plage are presented.

Coffey, H. E.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Solar-Geophysical Data Number 496, February 1986. Part 1: (Prompt reports). Data for January 1986,December 1985 and late data

Solar-Geophysical Data Number 498, February 1986, Part 1 (Prompt Reports), Data for January 1986, December 1985 and Late Data contains the following:detailed index for 1985-86; data for January 1986--(IUWDS alert periods (advanced and worldwide), Solar activity indices, Solar flares, Solar radio emission, Vostok inferred interplanetary magnetic field polarity, Stanford mean solar magnetic field); data for December 1985--(Solar active regions, Sudden ionospheric disturbances, Solar radio spectral observations, Cosmic ray measurements by neutron monitor, Geomagnetic indices, Radio propagation indices); late data--(Solar radio emission Nancay interferometric chart December 1985, Solar radio spectral observations Culgoora May 1985, Geomagnetic indices sudden commencements November 1985, Calcium plage data).

Coffey, H. E.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Solar-Geophysical Data Number 497, January 1986. Part 1: (Prompt reports). Date for December 1985, November 1985 and late data

Solar-Geophysical Data Number 497, January 1986, Part 1 (prompt reports); Data for December 1985, November 1985 and Late Data contains the Data for December 1985-(IUWDS alert periods (advance and worldwide), solar activity indices, Solar flares, Vostok inferred interplanetary magnetic field polarity, Stanford mean solar magnetic field); data for November 1985-(solar active regions, sudden ionospheric disturbances, solar radio spectral observations, cosmic ray measurements by neutron monitor, geomagnetic indices, radio propagation indices); and late data-(geomagnetic indices, calcium plage data).

Coffey, H. E.↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

DASL-Data and Activities for Solar Learning

DASL-Data and Activities for Solar Learning Data and Activities for Solar Learning (DASL) provides a classroom learning environment based on a twenty-five year record of solar magnetograms from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) at Kitt Peak, AZ. The data, together with image processing software for Macs or PCs, can be used to learn basic facts about the Sun and astronomy at the middle school level. At the high school level, students can study properties of the Sun's magnetic cycle with classroom exercises emphasizing data and error analysis and can participate in a new scientific study, Research in Active Solar Longitudes (RASL), in collaboration with classrooms throughout the country and scientists at NSO and NASA. We present a half-day course to train teachers in the scientific content of the project and its classroom use. We will provide a compact disc with the data and software and will demonstrate software installation and use, classroom exercises, and participation in RASL with computer projection.

Jones, Harrison P.↗

NASA NTRS1977

12054 and 76215 - New measurements of interplanetary dust and solar flare fluxes

The mass distribution and flux of micrometeoroids, variations in solar activity, solar-wind erosion and solar-flare track production are discussed on the basis of lunar sample analyses. A bimodal size frequency distribution of micrometeorites is found; the ratio of the density of craters larger than 0.1 micron to the density of those larger than 500 microns is 50 to 100 million. Solar cosmic-ray track ages determined for the lunar samples through use of the model of Blanford et al. (1975) indicate no variation in solar activity over a period of 2 million years. Solar wind erosion is set at no more than 0.03 A per year.

Morrison, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Solar Cycle

Sunspots provided the first evidence for the 11-year cycle of solar activity and continue to provide key indicators of the level and nature of solar activity. Solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections increase in frequency as the number of sunspots increases during the rising phase of the solar cycle. The total irradiance of the Sun and its irradiance in ultraviolet light and x-rays also increase as the sunspot number increases. On the other hand, the flux of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth decreases as the sunspot number increases. These changes in the heliospheric environment produce significant effects on our environment. Our technological assets, in space, in the air, and on the ground, can be adversely affected by solar activity. Satellite drag, single-event upsets in electronic components, radio communication outages, power outages, and terrestrial climate can all be influenced by solar activity. In this lecture I will describe many of the significant characteristics of the solar cycle, their roots in solar magnetism, the mechanisms of the Sun's magnetic dynamo, and predictions for the amplitude and timing of next solar cycle.

Hathaway, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Activity associated with coronal mass ejections at solar minimum - SMM observations from 1984-1986

Seventy-three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the coronagraph aboard SMM between 1984 and 1986 were examined in order to determine the distribution of various forms of solar activity that were spatially and temporally associated with mass ejections during solar minimum phase. For each coronal mass ejection a speed was measured, and the departure time of the transient from the lower corona estimated. Other forms of solar activity that appeared within 45 deg longitude and 30 deg latitude of the mass ejection and within +/-90 min of its extrapolated departure time were explored. The statistical results of the analysis of these 73 CMEs are presented, and it is found that slightly less than half of them were infrequently associated with other forms of solar activity. It is suggested that the distribution of the various forms of activity related to CMEs does not change at different phases of the solar cycle. For those CMEs with associations, it is found that eruptive prominences and soft X-rays were the most likely forms of activity to accompany the appearance of mass ejections.

St. Cyr, O. C.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Variability of Lyman-alpha emission from Jupiter

The Jovian Lyman-alpha emission line was again observed in 1978 using the high resolution spectrometer on the Copernicus satellite. In intensity of 8.4+3.0 kilo Rayleighs was measured. This value represents a significant increase in intensity over previous (1976) Copernicus observations, but is lower than the recent (1979) values obtained by Voyager I and IUE. The increase in intensity was accompanied by a significant increase in line width, giving strong support to the theory that the emission results from resonant scattering of the solar Ly-alpha line by H atoms in the upper Jovian atmosphere. The strength of Jovian Ly-alpha emission correlates well with the level of solar activity. The solar extreme ultraviolet radiation varies with the solar cycle. This radiation causes the dissociation of H2 and CH4 into H atoms in the Jovian atmosphere. Therefore, in times of high solar activity, the H column density will increase, causing the observed stronger Jovian Ly-alpha emission.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1979

Variability of Lyman-alpha emission from Jupiter

The Jovian Lyman-alpha emission line was reobserved in 1978 March using the high-resolution spectrometer of the Copernicus satellite. An intensity of 8.3 plus or minus 2.9 kilorayleighs was measured. This value represents a significant increase in intensity over previous (1976) Copernicus observations, but is lower than the recent (1979) values obtained by Voyager 1 and IUE. The increase in intensity has been accompanied by a significant increase in line width giving strong support to the theory that the emission results from resonant scattering of the solar Lyman-alpha line by H atoms in the upper Jovian atmossphere. The strength of Jovian Lyman-alpha emission correlates well with the level of solar activity. The solar extreme ultraviolet radiation varies with the solar cycle. This radiation causes the dissociation of H2 and CH4 into H atoms in the Jovian atmosphere. Therefore, in times of high solar activity, the H column density will increase, causing the observed strong Jovian Lyman-alpha emission.

Cochran, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The ultraviolet dayglow at solar maximum. 1 - Far UV spectroscopy at 3.5 A resolution

The earth's far ultraviolet dayglow (1080-1515 A) was observed at about 3.5 A resolution during a period of high solar activity near solar maximum om June 27, 1980. The observations were made at local noon by rocket-borne spectrometers viewing toward the earth's northern limb at 90 deg zenith angle (ZA) at altitudes between 100 and 245 km, and at 98 deg ZA between 245 and 260 km. The zenith angle was 8.9 deg. These spectra are compared with earlier lower-resolution dayglow data obtained during a period of lower solar activity and with auroral spectra. The brightness ratio of O I 1356 to the N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) system, an indicator of the O to N2 density ratio, is lower than that previously measured at mid-latitudes and closer to the value found in aurorae. In the LBH system a depletion of the bands originating on the v-prime = 3 vibrational level of the excited state is found. Some weak N2 Birge-Hopfield bands and N I lines only marginally detected previously in the dayglow are confirmed.

Eastes, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Geomagnetic Activity Indicates Large Amplitude for Sunspot Cycle 24

The level of geomagnetic activity near the time of solar activity minimum has been shown to be a reliable indicator for the amplitude of the following solar activity maximum. The geomagnetic activity index aa can be split into two components: one associated with solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections which follows the solar activity cycle and a second component associated with recurrent high speed solar wind streams which is out of phase with the solar activity cycle. This second component often peaks before solar activity minimum and has been one of the most reliable indicators for the amplitude of the following maximum. The size of the recent maximum in this second component indicates that solar activity cycle 24 will be much higher than average - similar in size to cycles 21 and 22.

Hathaway, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Geomagnetic Activity Indicates Large Amplitude for Sunspot Cycle 24

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS1970

Radio spectrum of two active regions

Solar active region radio spectrum during 12 November 1966 eclipse, discussing flux, magnetic field effects, temperature and electron density

Drago, F. C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

On the Relationship Between Solar Wind Speed, Geomagnetic Activity, and the Solar Cycle Using Annual Values

The aa index can be decomposed into two separate components: the leading sporadic component due to solar activity as measured by sunspot number and the residual or recurrent component due to interplanetary disturbances, such as coronal holes. For the interval 1964-2006, a highly statistically important correlation (r = 0.749) is found between annual averages of the aa index and the solar wind speed (especially between the residual component of aa and the solar wind speed, r = 0.865). Because cyclic averages of aa (and the residual component) have trended upward during cycles 11-23, cyclic averages of solar wind speed are inferred to have also trended upward.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Observation of the Radiation Environment and Solar Energetic Particle Events in Mars Orbit in May 2018- June 2022

Epithermal Neutron Detector (FREND). Here we present results from measurements of the charged particle fluxes, dose rates and estimation of dose equivalent rates at ExoMars TGO Mars science orbit, provided by Liulin-MO from May 2018 to June 2022. The period of measurements covers the declining and minimum phases of the solar activity in 24th solar cycle and the rising phase of the 25th cycle. Compared are the radiation values of the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) obtained during the different phases of the solar activity. The highest values of the dose rate and flux from GCR are registered from March to August 2020. At the minimum of 24th and transition to 25th solar cycle the dose rate from GCR is 15.9 ± 1.6 µGy h−1, particle flux is 3.3 ± 0.17 cm−2 s−1, dose equivalent rate is 72.3 ± 14.4 µSv h−1. Since September 2020 the dose rate and flux of GCR decrease. Particular attention is drawn to the observation of the solar energetic particle (SEP) events in July, September and October 2021, February and March 2022 as well as their effects on the radiation environment on TGO during the corresponding periods. The SEP event during15–19 February 2022 is the most powerful event observed in our data. The SEP dose during this event is 13.8 ± 1.4 mGy (in Si), the SEP dose equivalent is 21.9 ± 4.4 mSv. SEP events recorded in Mars orbit are related to coronal mass ejections (CME) observed by SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. Compared are the time profiles of the count rates measured by Liulin-MO, the neutron detectors of FREND and neutron detectors of the High Energy Neutron Detector (HEND) aboard Mars Odyssey during 15–19 February 2022 event. The data obtained is important for the knowledge of the radiation environment around Mars, regarding future manned and robotic flights to the planet. The data for SEP events in Mars orbit during July 2021-March 2022 contribute to the details on the solar activity at a time when Mars is on the opposite side of the Sun from Earth.

Jordanka Semkova↗