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DOE OSTI2025

Verification of the Uniformly-Ordered Binary Decision Algorithm in Correlated-Benchmark Whisper Calculations

Whisper is a nuclear criticality safety code package that aids analysts in validation exercises by computing upper subcritical limits (USL) for applications of interest. To obtain statistically meaningful, significant, and conservative USLs, the analyst must ensure that Whisper selects a sufficient number of benchmarks that are neutronically similar to the application. Many of the available benchmarks are correlated but are currently treated as independent, leading to an artificially small sample size, as their individual information contributions will be overestimated. To aid the analyst in obtaining a sufficient sample size, prior work [2] demonstrated application of the Uniformly-Ordered Binary Decision (UOBD) algorithm in adjusting benchmark weights to account for benchmark correlations. This work provides verification of the Whisper implementation and considers the impact of updated benchmark correlations compared to those available previously. We demonstrate that the UOBD algorithm performs as expected with an analytic example. With HEU-SOL-THERM-001 cases 1 through 10 as the applications, we compare the USLs computed with benchmark correlations available in the Whisper 1.1 release only to those computed with additional benchmark correlations from DICE 2023 and demonstrate substantive differences.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1998

Design and Calibration of the X-33 Flush Airdata Sensing (FADS) System

This paper presents the design of the X-33 Flush Airdata Sensing (FADS) system. The X-33 FADS uses a matrix of pressure orifices on the vehicle nose to estimate airdata parameters. The system is designed with dual-redundant measurement hardware, which produces two independent measurement paths. Airdata parameters that correspond to the measurement path with the minimum fit error are selected as the output values. This method enables a single sensor failure to occur with minimal degrading of the system performance. The paper shows the X-33 FADS architecture, derives the estimating algorithms, and demonstrates a mathematical analysis of the FADS system stability. Preliminary aerodynamic calibrations are also presented here. The calibration parameters, the position error coefficient (epsilon), and flow correction terms for the angle of attack (delta alpha), and angle of sideslip (delta beta) are derived from wind tunnel data. Statistical accuracy of' the calibration is evaluated by comparing the wind tunnel reference conditions to the airdata parameters estimated. This comparison is accomplished by applying the calibrated FADS algorithm to the sensed wind tunnel pressures. When the resulting accuracy estimates are compared to accuracy requirements for the X-33 airdata, the FADS system meets these requirements.

Whitmore, Stephen A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Distributed Monitoring of the R(sup 2) Statistic for Linear Regression

The problem of monitoring a multivariate linear regression model is relevant in studying the evolving relationship between a set of input variables (features) and one or more dependent target variables. This problem becomes challenging for large scale data in a distributed computing environment when only a subset of instances is available at individual nodes and the local data changes frequently. Data centralization and periodic model recomputation can add high overhead to tasks like anomaly detection in such dynamic settings. Therefore, the goal is to develop techniques for monitoring and updating the model over the union of all nodes data in a communication-efficient fashion. Correctness guarantees on such techniques are also often highly desirable, especially in safety-critical application scenarios. In this paper we develop DReMo a distributed algorithm with very low resource overhead, for monitoring the quality of a regression model in terms of its coefficient of determination (R2 statistic). When the nodes collectively determine that R2 has dropped below a fixed threshold, the linear regression model is recomputed via a network-wide convergecast and the updated model is broadcast back to all nodes. We show empirically, using both synthetic and real data, that our proposed method is highly communication-efficient and scalable, and also provide theoretical guarantees on correctness.

Bhaduri, Kanishka↗

NASA NTRS2001

Satellite Remote Sensing of Tropical Precipitation and Ice Clouds for GCM Verification

This project, supported by the NASA New Investigator Program, has primarily been funding a graduate student, Darren McKague. Since August 1999 Darren has been working part time at Raytheon, while continuing his PhD research. Darren is planning to finish his thesis work in May 2001, thus some of the work described here is ongoing. The proposed research was to use GOES visible and infrared imager data and SSM/I microwave data to obtain joint distributions of cirrus cloud ice mass and precipitation for a study region in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. These joint distributions of cirrus cloud and rainfall were to be compared to those from the CSU general circulation model to evaluate the cloud microphysical amd cumulus parameterizations in the GCM. Existing algorithms were to be used for the retrieval of cloud ice water path from GOES (Minnis) and rainfall from SSM/I (Wilheit). A theoretical study using radiative transfer models and realistic variations in cloud and precipitation profiles was to be used to estimate the retrieval errors. Due to the unavailability of the GOES satellite cloud retrieval algorithm from Dr. Minnis (a co-PI), there was a change in the approach and emphasis of the project. The new approach was to develop a completely new type of remote sensing algorithm - one to directly retrieve joint probability density functions (pdf's) of cloud properties from multi-dimensional histograms of satellite radiances. The usual approach is to retrieve individual pixels of variables (i.e. cloud optical depth), and then aggregate the information. Only statistical information is actually needed, however, and so a more direct method is desirable. We developed forward radiative transfer models for the SSM/I and GOES channels, originally for testing the retrieval algorithms. The visible and near infrared ice scattering information is obtained from geometric ray tracing of fractal ice crystals (Andreas Macke), while the mid-infrared and microwave scattering is computed with Mie scattering. The radiative transfer is performed with the Spherical Harmonic Discrete Ordinate Method (developed by the PI), and infrared molecular absorption is included with the correlated k-distribution method. The SHDOM radiances have been validated by comparison to version 2 of DISORT (the community "standard" discrete-ordinates radiative transfer model), however we use SHDOM since it is computationally more efficient.

Evans, K. Franklin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ground state energy and magnetization curve of a frustrated magnetic system from real-time evolution on a digital quantum processor

Models of interacting many-body quantum systems that may realize new exotic phases of matter, notably quantum spin liquids, are challenging to study using even state-of-the-art classical methods such as tensor network simulations. Quantum computing provides a promising route for overcoming these difficulties to find ground states, dynamics, and more. In this paper, we argue that recently developed hybrid quantum-classical algorithms based on real-time evolution are promising methods for solving a particularly important model in the search for spin liquids, the antiferromagnetic Heisenberg model on the two-dimensional kagome lattice. We show how to construct efficient quantum circuits to implement time evolution for the model and to evaluate key observables on the quantum computer, and we argue that the method has favorable scaling with increasing system size. We then restrict to a 12-spin star plaquette from the kagome lattice and a related 8-spin system, and we give an empirical demonstration on these small systems that the hybrid algorithms can efficiently find the ground state energy and the magnetization curve. For these demonstrations, we use four levels of approximation: exact state vectors, exact state vectors with statistical noise from sampling, noisy classical emulators, and (for the 8-spin system only) real quantum hardware, specifically the Quantinuum H1-1 processor; for the noisy simulations and hardware demonstration, we also employ error mitigation strategies based on the symmetries of the Hamiltonian. Our results strongly suggest that these hybrid algorithms present a promising direction for studying quantum spin liquids and more generally for resolving important unsolved problems in condensed matter theory and beyond.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Personalized Tucker Decomposition: Modeling Commonality and Peculiarity on Tensor Data

In this paper, we propose a personalized Tucker decomposition (perTucker) to address the limitations of traditional tensor decomposition methods in capturing heterogeneity across different datasets. perTucker decomposes tensor data into shared global components and personalized local components. We introduce an order orthogonality assumption and develop a proximal gradient regularized block coordinate descent algorithm guaranteed to converge to a stationary point. The unique and common representations learned by perTucker reveal intrinsic statistical patterns in data and provide valuable information for a wide range of downstream analytics, including anomaly detection, source classification, and clustering. We demonstrate perTucker’s effectiveness through a simulation study and two case studies on solar flare detection and tonnage signal classification.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1974

Refinement of the Goloseyev catalog point coordinates in the limb zone and determination of point coordinates on the back side of the moon

Lunar photography from Zond 6 showed half the side of the moon which is not visible from the earth, and this made it possible to construct a photogrammetric grid encompassing the entire Western Hemisphere and referenced to points of the visible side, whose coordinates were taken from the Goloseyev catalog. The problem was solved using two pictures taken from approximately 9000 km above the lunar surface. The photogrammetric grid was constructed by joint statistical analysis of the measurements of both pictures and the selenographic coordinates of the catalog points. A special algorithm was developed and a program compiled realizing the maximum likelihood method which permitted working with up to 120 catalog points simultaneously.

Krasikov, V. A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The analysis of a rocket tomography measurement of the N2+3914A emission and N2 ionization rates in an auroral arc

Techniques were developed for recovering two-dimensional distributions of auroral volume emission rates from rocket photometer measurements made in a tomographic spin scan mode. These tomographic inversion procedures are based upon an algebraic reconstruction technique (ART) and utilize two different iterative relaxation techniques for solving the problems associated with noise in the observational data. One of the inversion algorithms is based upon a least squares method and the other on a maximum probability approach. The performance of the inversion algorithms, and the limitations of the rocket tomography technique, were critically assessed using various factors such as (1) statistical and non-statistical noise in the observational data, (2) rocket penetration of the auroral form, (3) background sources of emission, (4) smearing due to the photometer field of view, and (5) temporal variations in the auroral form. These tests show that the inversion procedures may be successfully applied to rocket observations made in medium intensity aurora with standard rocket photometer instruments. The inversion procedures have been used to recover two-dimensional distributions of auroral emission rates and ionization rates from an existing set of N2+3914A rocket photometer measurements which were made in a tomographic spin scan mode during the ARIES auroral campaign. The two-dimensional distributions of the 3914A volume emission rates recoverd from the inversion of the rocket data compare very well with the distributions that were inferred from ground-based measurements using triangulation-tomography techniques and the N2 ionization rates derived from the rocket tomography results are in very good agreement with the in situ particle measurements that were made during the flight. Three pre-prints describing the tomographic inversion techniques and the tomographic analysis of the ARIES rocket data are included as appendices.

Mcdade, Ian C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Direct simulations of wall-bounded compressible turbulence

A study has been initiated on the effects of compressibility (Mach number) on turbulent boundary layers. An understanding of both qualitative (turbulence structures, physical processes) and quantitative (turbulence statistics) effects are desired. This understanding should lead to better turbulence models for applications involving supersonic wall-bounded flows. Direct numerical simulations of an idealized problem will be used to accomplish these objectives. Among several possibilities we chose plane Couette flow with constant-temperature walls as the first problem to be studied. The lack of mean streamwise pressure gradient plus isothermal walls implies that both horizontal directions can be assumed to be homogeneous and that the flow can reach a statistically steady state. Together, these features greatly simplify the calculations and analyses of the results. To date, an algorithm has been developed and implemented (but not yet fully tested) for the accurate solution of the Navier-Stokes equations with the assumptions noted above.

Buell, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Canopy reflectance modelling of semiarid vegetation

Three different types of remote sensing algorithms for estimating vegetation amount and other land surface biophysical parameters were tested for semiarid environments. These included statistical linear models, the Li-Strahler geometric-optical canopy model, and linear spectral mixture analysis. The two study areas were the National Science Foundation's Jornada Long Term Ecological Research site near Las Cruces, NM, in the northern Chihuahuan desert, and the HAPEX-Sahel site near Niamey, Niger, in West Africa, comprising semiarid rangeland and subtropical crop land. The statistical approach (simple and multiple regression) resulted in high correlations between SPOT satellite spectral reflectance and shrub and grass cover, although these correlations varied with the spatial scale of aggregation of the measurements. The Li-Strahler model produced estimated of shrub size and density for both study sites with large standard errors. In the Jornada, the estimates were accurate enough to be useful for characterizing structural differences among three shrub strata. In Niger, the range of shrub cover and size in short-fallow shrublands is so low that the necessity of spatially distributed estimation of shrub size and density is questionable. Spectral mixture analysis of multiscale, multitemporal, multispectral radiometer data and imagery for Niger showed a positive relationship between fractions of spectral endmembers and surface parameters of interest including soil cover, vegetation cover, and leaf area index.

Franklin, Janet↗

NASA NTRS1998

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has several important applications, including the model assessment application and the objective analysis application. In this project, we have focused on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP), the 500 hPa geopotential height, and the 315 K potential vorticity fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. The forecasts are generated by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system with and without ERS-1 scatterometer data. A great deal of novel work has been accomplished under the current contract. In broad terms, we have developed and tested an efficient algorithm for determining distortions. The algorithm and constraints are now ready for application to larger data sets to be used to determine the statistics of the distortion as outlined above, and to be applied in data analysis by using GEOS water vapor imagery to correct short-term forecast errors.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗

NASA NTRS2003

TOMS and SBUV Data: Comparison to 3D Chemical-Transport Model Results

We have updated our merged ozone data (MOD) set using the TOMS data from the new version 8 algorithm. We then analyzed these data for contributions from solar cycle, volcanoes, QBO, and halogens using a standard statistical time series model. We have recently completed a hindcast run of our 3D chemical-transport model for the same years. This model uses off-line winds from the finite-volume GCM, a full stratospheric photochemistry package, and time-varying forcing due to halogens, solar uv, and volcanic aerosols. We will report on a parallel analysis of these model results using the same statistical time series technique as used for the MOD data.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Comparison of TRMM Ground Validation and Satellite Rain Intensity Estimates

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Ground Validation (GV) Program began in the late 1980's and has provided a wealth of data and resources for validating TRMM satellite estimates. The TRMM GV program's main operational task is to provide rainfall products for four sites: Darwin, Australia (DARW); Houston, Texas (HSTN); Kwajalein, Republic of the Marshall Islands (KWAJ); and, Melbourne, Florida (MELB). A comparison between TRMM Ground Validation (Version 5) and Satellite (Version 6) rain intensity estimates is presented. The full suite of Version 6 satellite data is currently being generated by the TRMM Science Data and Information System (TSDIS) and should be completed some time near the end of 2005. The gridded satellite product (3G68) will be compared to GV Level II rain-intensity and -type maps (2A53 and 2A54, respectively). The 3G68 product represents a 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg data grid providing estimates of rain intensities from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR), Microwave Imager (TMI) and Combined (COM) algorithms. The comparisons will be sub-setted according to geographical type (land, coast and ocean). A bias statistic will be presented that provides quantification of the relative differences between the various estimators. Previous comparisons of an interim satellite product (Version 6a) showed that all of the estimates (GV and satellite) are converging, with some expected discrepancies. The convergence of the GV and satellite estimates bodes well for expectations for the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) program and this study and others are being leveraged towards planning GV goals for GPM.

Wolff, David B.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Glucose determination in human aqueous humor with Raman spectroscopy

It has been suggested that spectroscopic analysis of the aqueous humor of the eye could be used to indirectly predict blood glucose levels in diabetics noninvasively. We have been investigating this potential using Raman spectroscopy in combination with partial least squares (PLS) analysis. We have determined that glucose at clinically relevant concentrations can be accurately predicted in human aqueous humor in vitro using a PLS model based on artificial aqueous humor. We have further determined that with proper instrument design, the light energy necessary to achieve clinically acceptable prediction of glucose does not damage the retinas of rabbits and can be delivered at powers below internationally acceptable safety limits. Herein we summarize our current results and address our strategies to improve instrument design. 2005 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Spectrum Analysis, Raman/methods↗

NASA NTRS2006

Simulating Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Data Using Hyperion and MODIS

The success of MODIS (the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) in creating unprecedented, timely, high-quality data for vegetation and other studies has created great anticipation for data from VIIRS (the Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite). VIIRS will be carried onboard the joint NASA/Department of Defense/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NPP (NPOESS (National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System) Preparatory Project). Because the VIIRS instruments will have lower spatial resolution than the current MODIS instruments 400 m versus 250 m at nadir for the channels used to generate Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data, scientists need the answer to this question: how will the change in resolution affect vegetation studies? By using simulated VIIRS measurements, this question may be answered before the VIIRS instruments are deployed in space. Using simulated VIIRS products, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and other operational agencies can then modify their decision support systems appropriately in preparation for receipt of actual VIIRS data. VIIRS simulations and validations will be based on the ART (Application Research Toolbox), an integrated set of algorithms and models developed in MATLAB(Registerd TradeMark) that enables users to perform a suite of simulations and statistical trade studies on remote sensing systems. Specifically, the ART provides the capability to generate simulated multispectral image products, at various scales, from high spatial hyperspectral and/or multispectral image products. The ART uses acquired ( real ) or synthetic datasets, along with sensor specifications, to create simulated datasets. For existing multispectral sensor systems, the simulated data products are used for comparison, verification, and validation of the simulated system s actual products. VIIRS simulations will be performed using Hyperion and MODIS datasets. The hyperspectral and hyperspatial properties of Hyperion data will be used to produce simulated MODIS and VIIRS products. Hyperion-derived MODIS data will be compared with near-coincident MODIS collects to validate both spectral and spatial synthesis, which will ascertain the accuracy of converting from MODIS to VIIRS. MODIS-derived VIIRS data is needed for global coverage and for the generation of time series for regional and global investigations. These types of simulations will have errors associated with aliasing for some scene types. This study will help quantify these errors and will identify cases where high-quality, MODIS-derived VIIRS data will be available.

Ross, Kenton W.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Preliminary Evaluation of an Aviation Safety Thesaurus' Utility for Enhancing Automated Processing of Incident Reports

This document presents a preliminary evaluation the utility of the FAA Safety Analytics Thesaurus (SAT) utility in enhancing automated document processing applications under development at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC). Current development efforts at ARC are described, including overviews of the statistical machine learning techniques that have been investigated. An analysis of opportunities for applying thesaurus knowledge to improving algorithm performance is then presented.

Barrientos, Francesca↗

NASA NTRS2015

Polarized Bidirectional Reflectance of Optically Thick Sparse Particulate Layers: an Efficient Numerically Exact Radiative-Transfer Solution

We describe a simple yet efficient numerical algorithm for computing polarized bidirectional reflectance of an optically thick (semi-infinite), macroscopically flat layer composed of statistically isotropic and mirror symmetric random particles. The spatial distribution of the particles is assumed to be sparse, random, and statistically uniform. The 44 Stokes reflection matrix is calculated by iterating the Ambartsumian's vector nonlinear integral equation. The result is a numerically exact solution of the vector radiative transfer equation and as such fully satisfies the energy conservation law and the fundamental reciprocity relation. Since this technique bypasses the computation of the internal radiation field, it is very fast and highly accurate. The FORTRAN implementation of the technique is publicly available on the World Wide Web at http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/ mmishchenko/brf. It can be combined with several existing computer programs providing the requisite single-scattering properties of spherical or morphologically complex particles and applied to a wide range of optical characterization problems. Benchmark results obtained with this program can be used for testing alternative solvers of the vector radiative transfer equation.

radiative transfer↗

NASA NTRS2016

Active Learning with Rationales for Identifying Operationally Significant Anomalies in Aviation

A major focus of the commercial aviation community is discovery of unknown safety events in flight operations data. Data-driven unsupervised anomaly detection methods are better at capturing unknown safety events compared to rule-based methods which only look for known violations. However, not all statistical anomalies that are discovered by these unsupervised anomaly detection methods are operationally significant (e.g., represent a safety concern). Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) have to spend significant time reviewing these statistical anomalies individually to identify a few operationally significant ones. In this paper we propose an active learning algorithm that incorporates SME feedback in the form of rationales to build a classifier that can distinguish between uninteresting and operationally significant anomalies. Experimental evaluation on real aviation data shows that our approach improves detection of operationally significant events by as much as 75% compared to the state-of-the-art. The learnt classifier also generalizes well to additional validation data sets.

anomaly detection↗