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DOE OSTI2015

Probing the properties of event-by-event distributions in Hanbury-Brown–Twiss radii

Hanbury-Brown–Twiss interferometry is a method which yields effective widths (i.e., “HBT radii”) of homogeneity regions in the fireballs produced in heavy ion collisions. Because the initial conditions of these collisions are stochastically fluctuating, the measured HBT radii also exhibit variation on an event-by-event basis. Yet, HBT measurements have, to date, been performed only on an ensemble-averaged basis, due to inherent limitations of finite particle statistics. Here, we show that experimental measurements to date are best characterized theoretically as weighted averages of the event-by-event HBT radii, and we propose a new method for extracting experimentally both the arithmetic mean and the variance of the event-by-event distribution of HBT radii. We demonstrate the extraction of the mean and variance of this distribution for a particular ensemble of numerically generated events, and offer some ideas to extend and generalize the method to enable measurement of higher moments of the HBT distribution as well.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Sparse-grid, reduced-basis Bayesian inversion: Nonaffine-parametric nonlinear equations

We extend the reduced basis (RB) accelerated Bayesian inversion methods for affine-parametric, linear operator equations which are considered in [16,17] to non-affine, nonlinear parametric operator equations. We generalize the analysis of sparsity of parametric forward solution maps in [20] and of Bayesian inversion in [48,49] to the fully discrete setting, including Petrov–Galerkin high-fidelity (“HiFi”) discretization of the forward maps. We develop adaptive, stochastic collocation based reduction methods for the efficient computation of reduced bases on the parametric solution manifold. The nonaffinity and nonlinearity with respect to (w.r.t.) the distributed, uncertain parameters and the unknown solution is collocated; specifically, by the so-called Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM). For the corresponding Bayesian inversion problems, computational efficiency is enhanced in two ways: first, expectations w.r.t. the posterior are computed by adaptive quadratures with dimension-independent convergence rates proposed in [49]; the present work generalizes [49] to account for the impact of the PG discretization in the forward maps on the convergence rates of the Quantities of Interest (QoI for short). Second, we propose to perform the Bayesian estimation only w.r.t. a parsimonious, RB approximation of the posterior density. Based on the approximation results in [49], the infinite-dimensional parametric, deterministic forward map and operator admit N-term RB and EIM approximations which converge at rates which depend only on the sparsity of the parametric forward map. In several numerical experiments, the proposed algorithms exhibit dimension-independent convergence rates which equal, at least, the currently known rate estimates for N-term approximation. We propose to accelerate Bayesian estimation by first offline construction of reduced basis surrogates of the Bayesian posterior density. The parsimonious surrogates can then be employed for online data assimilation and for Bayesian estimation. They also open a perspective for optimal experimental design.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2015

Design and simulation of the nuSTORM facility

This thesis provides a full design and simulation of the nuSTORM beam line facility including the pion beam line , the pion and muon orbit combination section, and the muon decay ring. The study also includes the development of numerical optimization methods and their application to the design. At nuSTORM, one proton batch from the Main Injector (MI) is extracted and transported to the target station to bombard a solid target. A magnetic horn is used as the collection device for the secondary particles such as pions and kaons. A pion beam line is designed to transport the secondary particles downstream to the muon decay ring. In order to avoid the use of a fast kicker with a large aperture for the injection, an Orbit Combination Section (OCS) was designed to combine the reference pion orbit with the circulating muon orbit. This ful lls the stochastic injection scheme proposed in the 1980s. It is shown through the simulation that the pion beam line is able to deliver 0.011 muons per proton on target within the acceptance of the ring. In order to improve the circulating muon ux, an optimization of the magnetic collection horn was studied. A Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA), that was modi ed to integrate Message Passing Interface (MPI) in the process, is applied to the optimization. The number of muons within the ring acceptance from the pion decay is estimated by the pions after the collection horn. This new method was proposed to lower the requirement on the computing resources for the optimization. The study gives a new and better target and horn con guration after a full investigation of the system. The nuSTORM ring is examined with two optics designs. With di erent features, the two designs are optimized via correcting the nonlinearities with sextupolar eld distribution in the ring. A modi ed MPI-based Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm was applied to obtain the optimal ring acceptance. The comparison with the GA shows good agreements on the achieved optimal ring acceptance. The pion and muon beams at nuSTORM were simulated and yield avor-pure and precisely measurable neutrino beams, which can be used to provide a de nite statement about the existence of a sterile neutrino.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic learning on manifolds constrained by nonlinear partial differential equations for small datasets

A novel extension of the Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM) is presented. It makes it possible to synthesize solutions to a wide range of nonlinear stochastic boundary value problems described by partial differential equations (PDEs) for which a stochastic computational model (SCM) is available and which depend on a vector-valued random control parameter. The cost of a single numerical evaluation of this SCM is assumed to be such that only a limited number of points can be computed for constructing the training dataset (small data). Each point of the training dataset is made up of realizations from a vector-valued stochastic process (the stochastic solution) and the associated random control parameter on which it depends. The presented PLoM constrained by PDE allows for generating a large number of learned realizations of the stochastic process and its corresponding random control parameter. These learned realizations are generated so as to minimize the vector-valued random residual of the PDE in the mean-square sense. Appropriate novel methods are developed to solve this challenging problem. Three applications are presented. The first one is a simple uncertain nonlinear dynamical system with a nonstationary stochastic excitation. The second one concerns the 2D nonlinear unsteady Navier–Stokes equations for incompressible flows in which the Reynolds number is the random control parameter. Here, the last one deals with the nonlinear dynamics of a 3D elastic structure with uncertainties. The results obtained make it possible to validate the PLoM constrained by stochastic PDE but also provide further validation of the PLoM without constraint.

Machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2014

Subgrid-scale model for radiative transfer in turbulent participating media

The simulation of turbulent flows of radiating gases, taking into account all turbulence length scales with an accurate radiation transport solver, is computationally prohibitive for high Reynolds or Rayleigh numbers. This is particularly the case when the small structures are not optically thin. We develop in this paper a radiative transfer subgrid model suitable for the coupling with direct numerical simulations of turbulent radiating fluid flows. Owing to the linearity of the Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE), the emission source term is spatially filtered to define large-scale and subgrid-scale radiation intensities. The large-scale or filtered intensity is computed with a standard ray tracing method on a coarse grid, and the subgrid intensity is obtained analytically (in Fourier space) from the Fourier transform of the subgrid emission source term. A huge saving of computational time is obtained in comparison with direct ray tracing applied on the fine mesh. Model accuracy is checked for three 3D fluctuating temperature fields. The first field is stochastically generated and allows us to discuss the effects of the filtering level and of the optical thicknesses of the whole medium, of the integral length scale, and of the cutoff wave length. The second and third cases correspond respectively to turbulent natural convection of humid air in a cubical box, and to the flow of hot combustion products inside a channel. In all cases, the achieved accuracy on radiative powers and wall fluxes is about a few percents.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2011

Temporal enhancement of super-horizon curvature perturbations from decays of two curvatons and its cosmological consequences

If more than one curvaton dominate the Universe at different epochs from each other, curvature perturbations can be temporarily enhanced to a value much larger than the observed one 10{sup -5}. The traces of the enhancement may be left as higher order correlation functions, that is, as non-Gaussianity, the stochastic gravitational waves that are sourced by scalar-scalar mode couplings, as well as the primordial black holes that are formed by the gravitational collapse of the enhanced curvature perturbations. We first confirm that such a temporal enhancement indeed occurs by solving the linearized perturbation equations both numerically and analytically. We then derive an analytic expression of the full-order curvature perturbation which does not rely on the frequently used sudden decay approximation and is exact on superhorizon scales. By using this analytic formula, we provide expressions of the nonlinearity parameters f{sub NL}, {tau}{sub NL} and g{sub NL}. If both two curvatons contribute to the final curvature perturbations, the strong non-Gaussianity appears in the trispectrum rather than in the bispectrum. We also find a unique consistency relation between {tau}{sub NL} and g{sub NL} without f{sub NL}. By using the second-order perturbation theory, we numerically show that the spectrum of the induced gravitational waves has a plateau corresponding to duration of the enhancement and such gravitational waves can be probed by ultimate-DECIGO and space-based atomic interferometers. We finally calculate the abundance of the primordial black holes and put a constraint on the amplitude of the enhanced curvature perturbations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Krylov Theory for Quantum Computing Algorithms

Quantum computers provide new avenues to access ground and excited state properties of systems otherwise difficult to simulate on classical hardware. New approaches using subspaces generated by real-time evolution have shown efficiency in extracting eigenstate information, but the full capabilities of such approaches are still not understood. In recent work, we developed the variational quantum phase estimation (VQPE) method, a compact and efficient real-time algorithm to extract eigenvalues on quantum hardware. Here we build on that work by theoretically and numerically exploring a generalized Krylov scheme where the Krylov subspace is constructed through a parametrized real-time evolution, which applies to the VQPE algorithm as well as others. We establish an error bound that justifies the fast convergence of our spectral approximation. We also derive how the overlap with high energy eigenstates becomes suppressed from real-time subspace diagonalization and we visualize the process that shows the signature phase cancellations at specific eigenenergies. We investigate various algorithm implementations and consider performance when stochasticity is added to the target Hamiltonian in the form of spectral statistics. To demonstrate the practicality of such real-time evolution, we discuss its application to fundamental problems in quantum computation such as electronic structure predictions for strongly correlated systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Stochastic Variability in Multiband Time-series Data

In preparation for the era of time-domain astronomy with upcoming large-scale surveys, we propose a state-space representation of a multivariate damped random walk process as a tool to analyze irregularly-spaced multifilter light curves with heteroscedastic measurement errors. We adopt a computationally efficient and scalable Kalman filtering approach to evaluate the likelihood function, leading to maximum O(k 3 n) complexity, where k is the number of available bands and n is the number of unique observation times across the k bands. This is a significant computational advantage over a commonly used univariate Gaussian process that can stack up all multiband light curves in one vector with maximum O(k 3 n 3 ) complexity. Using such efficient likelihood computation, we provide both maximum likelihood estimates and Bayesian posterior samples of the model parameters. Three numerical illustrations are presented: (i) analyzing simulated five-band light curves for a comparison with independent single-band fits; (ii) analyzing five-band light curves of a quasar obtained from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 to estimate short-term variability and timescale; (iii) analyzing gravitationally lensed g- and r-band light curves of Q0957+561 to infer the time delay. Two R packages, Rdrw and timedelay, are publicly available to fit the proposed models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solving inverse problems in stochastic models using deep neural networks and adversarial training

Inverse problems associated with stochastic models constitute a significant portion of scientific and engineering applications. In such cases the unknown quantities are distributions. The applicability of traditional methods is limited because of their demanding assumptions or prohibitive computational consumption; for example, maximum likelihood methods require closed-form density functions, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo needs a large number of simulations. We propose a new method that estimates the unknown distribution by matching the statistical properties between observed and simulated random processes. We leverage the expressive power of neural networks to approximate the unknown distribution and use a discriminative neural network for computing the statistical discrepancies between the observed and simulated random processes. Here we demonstrated numerically that the proposed methods can estimate both the model parameters and learn complicated unknown distributions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Bayesian inference of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics from aeroelastic limit cycle oscillations

A Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation algorithm is applied to investigate the influence of nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamic loads on the limit cycle oscillation (LCO) of a pitching airfoil in the transitional Reynolds number regime. At small angles of attack, laminar boundary layer trailing edge separation causes negative aerodynamic damping leading to the LCO. The fluid–structure interaction of the rigid, but elastically mounted, airfoil and nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics is represented by two coupled nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equations containing uncertain parameters and model approximation errors. Several plausible aerodynamic models with increasing complexity are proposed to describe the aeroelastic system leading to LCO. The likelihood in the posterior parameter probability density function (pdf) is available semi-analytically using the extended Kalman filter for the state estimation of the coupled nonlinear structural and unsteady aerodynamic model. The posterior parameter pdf is sampled using a parallel and adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior probability of each model is estimated using the Chib–Jeliazkov method that directly uses the posterior MCMC samples for evidence (marginal likelihood) computation. The Bayesian algorithm is validated through a numerical study and then applied to model the nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic loads using wind-tunnel test data at various Reynolds numbers.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fast Computational Algorithms for Partial Differential Equations and Uncertainty Quantifications

This project concerned the construction, testing and analysis of computational algorithms for solving parameterized and stochastic partial differential equations. The study and understanding of equations of this type is of fundamental importance in numerous engineering and scientific applications. Examples include simulation of plasma dynamics in models of electric propulsion and nuclear fusion, simulation of multiphase flows, such as the flow of water, gas and oil in reservoirs, and structural analysis of the dependence of structures on materials. Parametrization is used in such settings when properties of the models such as viscosity of fluids or electric resistivity of materials are not precisely understood and instead are treated as random variables. The resulting solutions are themselves random, and having such solutions will enable engineers to use probabilistic methods to assess the likelihood of events, for example, whether a pollutant in a liquid will exceed a limit, and to use such analyses to develop ways to ensure positive outcomes. Construction of accurate (high resolution) computational solutions is expensive, requiring significant computer time and computational resources, and there is need to reduce computational cost to make simulation useful and effective. The aim of the project was to construct algorithms to efficiently compute surrogate solutions to parameterized problems to allow for efficient and accurate simulation. The technical approach used focused on two related strategies, based on rank-reduction methods and reduced-order models. These methods construct surrogate solutions of parameter-dependent models by projection or interpolation into low-dimensional approximation spaces. Cost savings are achieved if the low-dimensional spaces can be identified and constructed efficiently and if the resulting low-dimensional algebraic systems can be solved cheaply. Accomplishments include: Theoretical and empirical demonstration of the effectiveness of fast multigrid solution strategies for computing low-rank representations of parameter-dependent solutions to discrete partial differential equations, including the first proof establishing so-called textbook convergence properties for low-rank methods. Development of efficient solution algorithms for solving nonlinear parameter-dependent partial differential equations used in models of fluid dynamics. Developent of efficient algorithms for low-rank representation of solutions of time-dependent simulations of fluid dynamics using multi-dimensional tensor representations of solutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Simulating the Effect of Fracture Connectivity on Repository Performance with GDSA Framework - 18589

This work examines the possible migration of radionuclides from a deep geologic nuclear waste repository sited in fractured crystalline host rock. The key safety concern is the potential effect on waste isolation of the inter-connectivity of the fracture network, which is primarily established by the temporal evolution of the temperature and stress fields at the time of original rock intrusion and cooling. Two end members are considered in these simulations, one with a high degree of connectivity to the biosphere, such that advective transport through the fracture and fault network controls radionuclide migration, and the other with a low degree of connectivity, such that slow diffusive transport through the crystalline rock matrix is the controlling process for radionuclide migration to the biosphere. Both end members have several areally extensive, high-transmissivity deformation zones, whose distance to the repository is an important factor for waste isolation capability. Uncertainties in fracture properties (transmissivity, orientation, radius) and fracture distribution also give rise to uncertainty in waste isolation capability (i.e., the overall connectivity of the repository with the surface biosphere). These types of natural system uncertainties are generally present in any geologic site-characterization program and thus represent an important factor in assessing repository performance in hard rock environments. The waste considered in these simulations are spent fuel rod assemblies from the U.S. commercial nuclear reactor fleet. Thermal output of the waste must be considered in the simulations and can influence the rate and timing of waste package failure, waste form degradation, and fluid flux due to thermal expansion around the repository horizon. To achieve a high-fidelity representation of radionuclide transport in fractures and rock matrix, combined with thermal energy transport and fluid flow in fractures and matrix, the mathematical model is solved numerically in a parallel high-performance computing (HPC) environment on a finite volume unstructured grid consisting of approximately 5 million cells, using Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Framework (https://pa.sandia.gov), an open-source performance assessment tool for deep underground disposal of nuclear waste. GDSA Framework uses PFLOTRAN to solve the balance equations on a three-dimensional grid with heterogeneous properties, using multiple processors in a parallel configuration based on domain decomposition. The fracture networks in these simulations are originally generated as discrete fracture networks (DFNs), which are sets of two-dimensional planes distributed in a three-dimensional domain. The method used in GDSA Framework maps the stochastically generated DFN to an equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) domain that allows for the simulation of coupled heat flow, fluid flow, and radionuclide transport, including heat conduction through the matrix of the fractured rock, which is a process not easily modeled in a DFN representation. Computational efficiency is also greatly enhanced using the ECPM method, allowing for a realistic representation and analysis of uncertainties in a multi-realization performance assessment of a deep geologic repository. The effect of fracture connectivity on the waste isolation safety function, as brought to light by these GDSA Framework simulations, points to the importance of including a realistic representation of uncertainties in fracture properties and distribution (effectively, uncertainty in spatial heterogeneity) in repository safety assessment simulations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Feature-Based Stochastic Permeability of Shale: Part 2–Predicting Field-Scale Permeability

We report that in a recent numerical study, it was demonstrated that characterizing reservoir permeability in terms of rock’s quality, as observed in lab and field, is the most important step before implementing an enhanced oil recovery operation or drilling a new well in a tight formation. In that study, it was shown that permeable features in shale-like organic matter (OM) and fractures were the only regions that allowed some reasonable movement of fluid, whereas inorganic matter (iOM) that occupies larger pore volume with significant saturation of hydrocarbons has extremely low permeability that did not allow any reasonable fluid movement to affect production. That study demonstrated the importance of characterizing reservoir heterogeneity in shale in order to economically exploit the shale resource. This study proposes a method to predict spatially heterogeneous field-scale permeability of shale in terms of natural fractures, and matrix (iOM and OM). The method developed in Part 1 is combined with a history-matching process that uses only readily available information from lab-scale and outcrop (information from geologists) to predict field-scale permeability. The method also ensures consistency between the underlying fracture distribution and optimally matched fracture lengths and their apertures, in addition to accounting for random distribution of fractures and their abundance. Optimized parameters of fracture distribution are used to generate multiple realizations of geological model, and the “best-fitting” (most-likely) permeability scenario is chosen by generating production response of each realization of the geological model and comparing them against the observed field production history. Finally, the novelty of the proposed to predict field-scale permeability is that it uses only readily available information while also ensuring consistency between the underlying fracture distribution and optimally matched fracture lengths and their apertures, in addition to accounting for random distribution of fractures and their abundance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Regularized Variance-Reduced Modified Extragradient Method for Stochastic Hierarchical Games

We consider an N -player hierarchical game in which the i th player’s objective comprises of an expectation-valued term, parametrized by rival decisions, and a hierarchical term. Such a framework allows for capturing a broad range of stochastic hierarchical optimization problems, Stackelberg equilibrium problems, and leader-follower games. We develop an iteratively regularized and smoothed variance-reduced modified extragradient framework for iteratively approaching hierarchical equilibria in a stochastic setting. We equip our analysis with rate statements, complexity guarantees, and almost-sure convergence results. We then extend these statements to settings where the lower-level problem is solved inexactly and provide the corresponding rate and complexity statements. Our model framework encompasses many game theoretic equilibrium problems studied in the context of power markets. We present a realistic application to the study of virtual power plants, emphasizing the role of hierarchical decision making and regularization. Preliminary numerics suggest that empirical behavior compares well with theoretical guarantees.

Tikhonov regularization↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic representation and conditioning of process-based geological model by deep generative and recognition networks

Accurate and realistic geological modeling is the core of oil and gas development and production. In recent years, process-based methods are developed to produce highly realistic geological models by simulating the physical processes that reproduce the sedimentary events and develop the geometry. However, the complex dynamic processes are extremely expensive to simulate, making process-based models difficult to be conditioned to field data. In this work, we propose a comprehensive generative adversarial network framework as a machine-learning-assisted approach for mimicking the outputs of process-based geological models with fast generation. The main objective of our work is to obtain a continuous parametrization of the highly realistic process-based geological models which enables us to calibrate the models and condition the models to data. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the capability of our proposed methodology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Unified probabilistic energy flow analysis for electricity–gas coupled systems with integrated demand response

Under a multi-energy environment, the conventional demand response programmes in smart-grid will be evolving to the concept of integrated demand response (IDR). In order to examine such an effect, this study presents a new methodological framework to conduct the probabilistic energy flow (PEF) analysis of integrated energy systems, while considering the potential effects of IDR. For this aim, a new price-elasticity-based IDR model is developed. As distinct from existing works, this study explicitly focuses on the stochastic characteristics of IDR programme and a novel Z-number-based technique is introduced to handle the relevant uncertainties that involved. The proposed Z-number model can not only capture the inherent randomness in demand-side performance but also account for the potential impact of information availability/reliability on the representation of IDR. Since the presence of Z-numbers makes the authors model include different types of uncertain representations, the fuzzy expectation technique and centroid method are jointly used to make them manageable under the same framework. A comprehensive algorithm based on the cumulant method and an optimisation scheme is employed to solve this PEF problem with consideration of IDR. The proposed framework is illustrated through numerical studies and simulation results confirm its effectiveness in actual implementations.

Zeng, Bo↗

DOE OSTI2024

Parameter identification methods for low-order gray box building energy models: A critical review

The body of knowledge on gray box building energy modeling (GBBEM) has been developed over the past few decades and has undergone some important changes recently. Starting with simple methods and simple buildings, the science of GBBEM has grown to encompass complex and more computationally intensive techniques and complex commercial buildings. Numerous works including a recent review have considered model structure and inputs in a nearly systematic way, but no extant work systematically reviews the approaches for GBBEM parameter search initialization and final identification, despite this being arguably the most difficult and impactful part of the modeling process. To this end, we critically review 55 extant works describing advantages, limitations, and domain of applicability of several classes of parameter initialization and optimization techniques specifically for GBBEM. We categorize the classes of methods and analyze the evidence of their applicability for different applications within the field of GBBEM. We find an emerging consensus that initialization of parameter searches for anything other than the simplest building elements is often challenging and sometimes requires a stochastic approach to begin the parameter identification process. After this initial process, faster methods have been used in some cases but often the nature of the problem requires stochastic methods for this portion of the process as well. For less complex systems, more deterministic and efficient methods have been shown to be effective. Finally, we draw conclusions as to the domain of applicability of different classes of initialization and optimization techniques for GBBEEM and offer suggestions for research directions that are likely to prove fruitful.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗