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At least 559 records · Page 31

Limitations of reanalysis data for wind power applications

Wind energy resource estimates commonly depend on simulated wind speed profiles generated by reanalysis or weather models due to the lack of long time series measurements with sufficient coverage at relevant heights (roughly 90 m above ground). However, modeled data, including reanalyses, can be noisy and display a wide range of biases and errors, variously attributed to terrain effects, poor coverage of assimilated inputs, and model resolution. Wind generation records, if available at high temporal and geographical resolution, can provide a proxy for wind measurements and allow for evaluation of reanalyses and weather model wind time series. We use a 7-year-long data set of hourly, plant-level generation records from over 100 wind plants across Texas to evaluate two commonly used reanalysis data sets (MERRA2 and ERA5). Additionally, we use 1-year of records (2019) to evaluate an operational, high-resolution regional weather modeling product (HRRR v3). We find that across the region, and across all modeling products, the modeled representation of wind generation (i.e., wind speeds at hub heights passed through a power curve) has relatively small mean errors when aggregated daily, but that accuracy and hourly correlation have a strong diurnal sensitivity. Accuracy and correlation systematically decline through the evening and markedly improve after sunrise. These diurnal patterns persist even in the highest resolution model tested (HRRR v3). We hypothesize the nighttime decline in accuracy is mostly due to poorly represented boundary layer conditions, perhaps related to model representation of stability, while other uncertainties (such as wake effects) play a secondary role.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High methane concentrations in tidal salt marsh soils: Where does the methane go?

Abstract Tidal salt marshes produce and emit CH 4 . Therefore, it is critical to understand the biogeochemical controls that regulate CH 4 spatial and temporal dynamics in wetlands. The prevailing paradigm assumes that acetoclastic methanogenesis is the dominant pathway for CH 4 production, and higher salinity concentrations inhibit CH 4 production in salt marshes. Recent evidence shows that CH 4 is produced within salt marshes via methylotrophic methanogenesis, a process not inhibited by sulfate reduction. To further explore this conundrum, we performed measurements of soil–atmosphere CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes coupled with depth profiles of soil CH 4 and CO 2 pore water gas concentrations, stable and radioisotopes, pore water chemistry, and microbial community composition to assess CH 4 production and fate within a temperate tidal salt marsh. We found unexpectedly high CH 4 concentrations up to 145,000 μmol mol −1 positively correlated with S 2− (salinity range: 6.6–14.5 ppt). Despite large CH 4 production within the soil, soil–atmosphere CH 4 fluxes were low but with higher emissions and extreme variability during plant senescence (84.3 ± 684.4 nmol m −2 s −1 ). CH 4 and CO 2 within the soil pore water were produced from young carbon, with most Δ 14 C‐CH 4 and Δ 14 C‐CO 2 values at or above modern. We found evidence that CH 4 within soils was produced by methylotrophic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Several pathways exist after CH 4 is produced, including diffusion into the atmosphere, CH 4 oxidation, and lateral export to adjacent tidal creeks; the latter being the most likely dominant flux. Our findings demonstrate that CH 4 production and fluxes are biogeochemically heterogeneous, with multiple processes and pathways that can co‐occur and vary in importance over the year. This study highlights the potential for high CH 4 production, the need to understand the underlying biogeochemical controls, and the challenges of evaluating CH 4 budgets and blue carbon in salt marshes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Changes in Future Precipitation Mean and Variability across Scales

Changes in precipitation variability can have large societal consequences, whether at the short time scales of flash floods or the longer time scales of multiyear droughts. Recent studies have suggested that in future climate projections, precipitation variability rises more steeply than does its mean, leading to concerns about societal impacts. Here we evaluate changes in mean precipitation over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales using a range of models from high-resolution regional simulations to millennial-scale global simulations. Results show that changes depend on the scale of aggregation and involve strong regional differences. On local scales that resolve individual rainfall events (hours and tens of kilometers), changes in precipitation distributions are complex and variances rise substantially more than means, as is required given the well-known disproportionate rise in precipitation intensity. On scales that aggregate across many events, distributional changes become simpler and variability changes smaller. At regional scale, future precipitation distributions can be largely reproduced by a simple transformation of present-day precipitation involving a multiplicative shift and a small additive term. The “extra” broadening is negatively correlated with changes in mean precipitation: in strongly “wetting” areas, distributions broaden less than expected from a simple multiplicative mean change; in “drying” areas, distributions narrow less. Precipitation variability changes are therefore of especial concern in the subtropics, which tend to dry under climate change. Outside the tropics, variability changes are similar on time scales from days to decades (i.e., show little frequency dependence). This behavior is highly robust across models, suggesting it may stem from some fundamental constraint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distilling the Evolving Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases to Large‐Scale Low‐Frequency Surface Ocean Changes Over the Past Century

Abstract Anthropogenic aerosols (AER) and greenhouse gases (GHG)—the leading drivers of the forced historical change—produce different large‐scale climate response patterns, with correlations trending from negative to positive over the past century. To understand what caused the time‐evolving comparison between GHG and AER response patterns, we apply a low‐frequency component analysis to historical surface ocean changes from CESM1 single‐forcing large‐ensemble simulations. While GHG response is characterized by its first leading mode, AER response consists of two distinct modes. The first one, featuring long‐term global AER increase and global cooling, opposes GHG response patterns up to the mid‐twentieth century. The second one, featuring multidecadal variations in AER distributions and interhemispheric asymmetric surface ocean changes, appears to reinforce the GHG warming effect over recent decades. AER thus can have both competing and synergistic effects with GHG as their emissions change temporally and spatially.

Dong, Yue↗

Inter-ELM pedestal turbulence dynamics dependence on q 95 and temperature gradient

A series of dedicated experiments from DIII-D tokamak provide spatially and temporally resolved measurements of electron density and temperature, and multiscale and multichannel fluctuations over a wide range of conditions. Measurements of long wavelength density fluctuations in the type-I ELMing H-mode pedestal routinely revealed a coexistence of multiple instabilities that exhibit dramatic different dynamic behaviors as q 95 and temperature gradient are varied, apparently responsible for limiting pedestal temperature profiles. Two distinct frequency bands of density fluctuations are modulated with ELM cycle with frequency above 200kHz propagating in the electron diamagnetic direction in the lab frame (electron mode) and below 200kHz propagating in the ion diamagnetic direction (ion mode). The electron mode amplitude peaks near the electron temperature gradient region and increases with q 95 which seems to be correlated with the increased χ e at higher q 95 , similar to the characteristics expected for Micro-tearing Mode (MTM). At higher q 95 , during the inter-ELM period, the ion mode decays at later phase of the ELM cycle. Consistently, the poloidal correlation length of the ion mode is also found to reduce which suggests the possible E×B flow shear suppression of ion mode at later phase of the ELM cycle as the Er well recovers. In contrast, the electron mode grows during the ELM cycle and reaches saturation at around 50-60% of ELM period. Linear gyrokinetic simulations find the MTMs as the most unstable mode in the pedestal electron temperature gradient region. The higher q 95 and lower magnetic shear destabilize MTMs. These observations provide key insights of the underlying physics of multifield properties and rich dataset of experimental 'fingerprints' that enable new tests of the theoretical pedestal models and lead to developing a predictive model for pedestal formation on ITER and future burning plasma experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Resolving turbulent magnetohydrodynamics: a hybrid operator-diffusion framework

We present a hybrid machine learning framework that combines physics-informed neural operators (PINOs) with score-based generative diffusion models to simulate the full spatio-temporal evolution of two-dimensional, incompressible, resistive magnetohydrodynamic turbulence across a broad range of Reynolds numbers (Re). The framework leverages the equation-constrained generalization capabilities of PINOs to predict coherent, low-frequency dynamics, while a conditional diffusion model stochastically corrects high-frequency residuals, enabling accurate modeling of fully developed turbulence. Trained on a comprehensive ensemble of high-fidelity simulations with Re ϵ {100, 250, 500, 750, 1000, 3000, 10000}, the approach achieves state-of-the-art accuracy in regimes previously inaccessible to deterministic surrogates. At Re = 1000 and 3000, the model faithfully reconstructs the full spectral energy distributions of both velocity and magnetic fields late into the simulation, capturing non-Gaussian statistics, intermittent structures, and cross-field correlations with high fidelity. At extreme turbulence levels (Re = 10 000), it remains the first surrogate capable of recovering the high-wavenumber evolution of the magnetic field, preserving large-scale morphology and enabling statistically meaningful predictions.

Diffusion-Integrated Neural Operators↗

Integrative analysis of CAM photosynthesis reveals its impact on primary metabolism in Yucca

Crassulacean Acid Metabolism (CAM) is an adaptation that temporally separates carbon uptake at night from photosynthesis during the day. CAM has evolved repeatedly across vascular plants, as its emergence may depend on simple regulatory changes to deeply conserved metabolic pathways. Modern CAM research relies heavily on interpretation of transcriptomic data, though regulation occurs at multiple levels following transcription. Additionally, while most research to date has focused on a handful of genes and metabolites in the core CAM pathway, the co-option of conserved regulatory and functional genes is bound to have wide-ranging effects on other aspects of primary metabolism. In this study, we integrate transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic data to compare primary metabolism between the CAM species Yucca aloifolia and closely related C 3 species, Y. filamentosa. We observe minimal correlation between protein abundance and mRNA expression, suggesting significant post-transcriptional regulation in CAM species. We also find evidence of shifts in gene expression and metabolite accumulation outside of the central CAM pathway, suggesting that the shift to CAM has cascading effects across primary metabolism, especially nitrogen metabolism. Our findings provide insights into the metabolic shifts associated with CAM evolution, and highlight the complexity of its regulation at multiple biological levels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

STILGAR End-of-Project Report

The Subsurface Tunnel Imaging LeveraGed by Analysis of Rayleigh wave ellipticity (STILGAR) project demonstrated an integrated geophysical approach for detecting, locating, and characterizing underground structural changes using dense seismic arrays and advanced inversion techniques. Field campaigns were conducted at two operational mines—the Redmond salt mine (Utah) and Graymont Pleasant Gap limestone mine (Pennsylvania)—providing real-world testbeds for monitoring anthropogenic subsurface activity. At the Redmond salt mine, seismic interferometry combined with back-projection inversion successfully identified continuous, low-amplitude signals from mining operations. The approach differentiated stationary from migrating anthropogenic sources, captured daily operational cycles, and validated the potential of passive seismic monitoring for remote detection of underground activity. At the Graymont Pleasant Gap mine, two dense seismic deployments in the spring and fall of 2023 generated over 4 TB of high-resolution data. Key outcomes included the relocation of 199 underground and 8 surface explosions with accuracies within tens of meters and the development of a 3D P-wave velocity model using the triple-difference tomography algorithm (tomoTD) that resolved major structural features such as the mine entrance, low-velocity tunnels, and roof-collapse areas. Ambient noise cross-correlation and back-projection analyses revealed persistent sources linked to ongoing mining activity, whereas horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) and ellipticity studies confirmed stable site responses across seasons and identified soil thickness trends consistent with regional erosional and depositional processes. Checkerboard and sensitivity tests further validated the robustness of the tomographic results. Overall, the findings emphasize that although significant progress has been made in subsurface imaging, further work is needed to enhance the detection and localization of underground structures. Accurate imaging requires higher frequencies, yet anthropogenic sources tend to dominate the seismic record at those frequencies, and high-frequency surface waves are affected by higher modes that complicate interpretation. The improved detection and localization of human-induced signals enabled detailed temporal and spatial mapping of daily mine operations, demonstrating the feasibility of continuous anthropogenic source monitoring. Sensitivity to signals from nontraditional sources, such as fan operations, highlights the broader applicability of this approach to other industrial environments in which continuous and impulsive signals are present. The field campaigns produced a substantial volume of high-quality seismic data, supporting the development and testing of new methods for seismic source characterization and subsurface imaging. Future deployments should include sensors capable of recording lower frequencies to probe deeper structures, increase bandwidth to enhance resolution and sensitivity to both shallow and deep targets, and collect additional large-scale datasets to refine imaging and source characterization techniques. Moreover, conducting 3D modeling studies of seismic wavefields at higher frequencies will provide a better understanding of wave scattering and cavity–wavefield interactions in complex underground environments. In conclusion, the STILGAR project demonstrated that integrated seismic monitoring can effectively characterize underground operations, capturing both natural and anthropogenic signals. The approaches developed provide a foundation for improved detection, localization, and imaging of subsurface structures and are directly transferable to broader industrial monitoring applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Thermodynamics of the Inner Heliosheath

We derive annual sky maps of the proton temperature in the inner heliosheath (IHS), and track their temporal evolution over the years 2009–2016 of Interstellar Boundary Explorer observations. Other associated thermodynamic parameters also determined are the density, kappa (the parameter that characterizes kappa distributions), temperature rate, polytropic index, and entropy. We exploit the theory of kappa distributions and their connection with polytropes, to (i) express a new polytropic quantity Π that remains invariant along streamlines where temperature and density may vary, (ii) parameterize the proton flux in terms of the Π invariant and kappa, and (iii) derive the temperature and density, respectively, from the slope and intercept of the linear relationship between kappa and logarithm of Π. We find the following thermodynamic characteristics: (1) temperature sky maps and histograms shifted to their lowest values in 2012 and their highest in 2015; (2) temperature negatively correlated with density, reflecting the subisothermal polytropic behavior; (3) temperature positively correlated with kappa, revealing characteristics of the mechanism responsible for generating kappa distributions; (4) processes in IHS are subisothermal tending toward isobaric, consistent with previously published results; (5) linear relationship between kappa and polytropic indices, revealing characteristics of the particle potential energy; and (6) entropy positively correlated with polytropic index, aligned with the underlying theory that entropy increases toward the isothermal state where the kappa distribution reduces to the Maxwell–Boltzmann description.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Lethality is Local, but Survival is Systemic: Temporal and Multi-Organ Responses to Chlorine Gas Exposure in a Murine Model

Chlorine gas (Cl2) is a highly toxic chemical associated with both localized lung injury and systemic health effects. While pulmonary damage has been well characterized, the systemic inflammatory and metabolic responses remain poorly understood. We aimed to define the temporal and multi-organ responses to Cl2 exposure in a murine model, with a focus on identifying spatiotemporal inflammation and its impact on survival and lethality. SKH1 mice were exposed for 10 min to varying concentrations of Cl2 (94.4–810 ppm, representative of non-lethal, LD10, and LD50 doses) and monitored for respiratory function, perfusion, and acidosis using organ-specific imaging. At multiple time points (40 min, 6 h, 24 h, and 7 d), we measured phosphoproteins, cytokines, chemokines, growth factors, and metabolic hormones in the lungs, heart, cortex, and plasma. Statistical modeling and logistic regression were used to identify biomarkers associated with lethality and survival. We found that lung injury was the primary cause of potential lethality, particularly via early phosphoprotein signaling disruptions. However, survival correlated with early systemic coordination of inflammatory and metabolic signals across organs. Perfusion and acidosis imaging were strongly associated with chemokine and hormone responses. Key survival-associated plasma biomarkers included decreased insulin, increased ghrelin, and decreased eotaxin. While potential lethality from Cl2 exposure is locally driven by pulmonary injury, survival depends on systemic, multi-organ responses that occur rapidly post-exposure. Within this model, our findings identify a potential therapeutic window to enhance survival and suggest candidate biomarkers that may be explored translationally for both triage and treatment of chlorine-related incidents.

chlorine gas↗

Validation of the two-region Rossi-alpha model for reflected assemblies

Nuclear criticality safety, nonproliferation and safeguards, emergency response, and stockpile stewardship utilize estimates of the k eff multiplication factor. The value of k eff cannot be directly measured, but it can be inferred from the prompt neutron period. One modality of measuring the prompt neutron period is the Rossi-alpha method, which is predicated on fitting a histogram of detection time differences due to the nonrandom temporal distribution of same-fission-chain neutrons. Recent works have developed the motivation and theory to expand traditional one-region point kinetic models resulting in one-exponential histogram fits to two-region models that result in two-exponential fits. This paper validates the new two-region model using organic scintillator measurements of copper-reflected weapons-grade plutonium (0:83 ≤ k eff ≤ 0:94) and high-density- polyethylene-reflected highly enriched uranium (0:73 ≤ k eff ≤ 0:95). Furthermore, the results show that more thermal systems have shorter prompt neutron periods in the core region due to increased induced-fission probabilities for moderated neutrons. Here, a new parameter introduced by the two- region model is also shown to be correlated to the amount of reflection, and may be used to infer assembly properties such as type and amount of reflector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Time Domain Thermoreflectance and Photodeflection Signatures of He Bubbles in Metals

The mechanical properties of the steel and weldments for different components are affected by the formation of helium bubbles as a result of tritium decay. Therefore, periodic analyses of metals exposed to tritium gas are conducted to determine structural defects and temporal damage from tritium gas decay and He precipitation. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and autoradiography are the current analytical methods for the evaluation of metal damage. These methods are functional after several years of damage to the crystal lattice where 3He bubble formation damage can be seen with TEM. New analytical methods that can assess the damage to the crystal lattice early during the exposure to tritium are highly sought to ascertain the effects of material processing and tritium interactions. Further, simple sample preparation, compared to TEM, at a significantly reduced cost is highly desirable. A pump-probe laser technique using a femtosecond laser has been demonstrated to measure the thermal diffusivity of different materials. The time domain thermoreflectance (TDTR) laser setup can provide thermal diffusivity and phonon lifetime, which can be correlated with lattice damage. This advanced nonlinear optical technique will enable measurements of nanostructure damage in the metal before and after tritium exposure within a year. This report discusses current efforts in the design and development of the technique and the application to material characterization.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Assessing Nutrient and Carbon Responses to Agricultural Conservation Practices in Two Midwest Watersheds

The United States is undertaking efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy in response to the heightened impacts of climate change, which are largely attributed to decades of carbon-intensive development. A concerted effort by the energy sector to achieve net-zero carbon emissions is aimed at strategically reducing the carbon footprint of the energy supply chain, particularly in the production of feedstocks for biofuels. The production of biofuels relies heavily on land use and management practices in biomass cultivation. Among other factors, soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a crucial role in the biofuel carbon cycle, impacting land productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and water quality. The process of carbon drawdown during plant growth and storage helps to mitigate the release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the atmosphere. Another key parameter is the release of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) — a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 273 times that of CO 2 — from soil. While prioritizing low-carbon production, sustainable bioenergy also necessitates improved water quality and ecosystem services. Agricultural conservation practices can contribute to enhanced soil health and reduce nutrient and sediment loss into streams. However, studies that explore the broader impact of these practices on soil carbon storage and N 2 O emissions at a watershed scale are limited. Specifically, our understanding of how low-carbon feedstock production and management affect nutrient cycle dynamics is incomplete. This study assesses watershed responses to land management practices in two agriculturally dominant watersheds: the Raccoon River watershed and the Southfork of Iowa River watershed. The study focuses on carbon and nutrient dynamics, characterizing spatial and temporal variations in SOC, N 2 O, and nutrient loadings to examine the relationship between nutrient and carbon responses and agricultural conservation practices. The study employs the newly developed Soil Water Analysis Tool for Carbon (SWAT-C) model, calibrated using 20 years’ of climate and water monitoring data, to simulate and evaluate two agricultural conservation practices: no-till and crop residue harvest with cover crop planting. We compared the calibrated SWAT-C model with a historical baseline model, which allowed us to analyze various aspects of the watershed, including stream flow, suspended sediments, nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, SOC at different depths, and N 2 O emissions from topsoil. Our SWAT-C modeling results indicate that, compared with results from the historical baseline model, no-till practices are positively correlated with SOC accumulation, reduced N 2 O emissions, and decreased soil loss. We also observed no change or slightly increased nitrogen and phosphorus loss to water bodies in the watersheds compared with the baseline. Conversely, crop residue harvest with cover crop planting improved water quality by reducing nutrient and soil losses but also increased N 2 O emissions. This SWAT-C modeling study establishes the groundwork for further smaller-scale and/or sub-basin-level assessments of nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon cycles. It provides valuable science-based insights to inform policy decisions — particularly in the context of transitioning to biofuel feedstock production in these watersheds — by addressing concerns about nutrient exports to local water bodies and, ultimately, the Mississippi River.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Excitonic density wave and spin-valley superfluid in bilayer transition metal dichalcogenide

Artificial moiré superlattices in 2 d van der Waals heterostructures are a new venue for realizing and controlling correlated electronic phenomena. Recently, twisted bilayer WSe 2 emerged as a new robust moiré system hosting a correlated insulator at moiré half-filling over a range of twist angle. In this work, we present a theory of this insulating state as an excitonic density wave due to intervalley electron–hole pairing. We show that exciton condensation is strongly enhanced by a van Hove singularity near the Fermi level. Our theory explains the remarkable sensitivity of the insulating gap to the vertical electric field. In contrast, the gap is weakly reduced by a perpendicular magnetic field, with quadratic dependence at low field. The different responses to electric and magnetic field can be understood in terms of pair-breaking versus non-pair-breaking effects in a BCS analog of the system. We further predict superfluid spin transport in this electrical insulator, which can be detected by optical spin injection and spatial-temporal imaging.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Characterizing PM 2.5 Emissions and Temporal Evolution of Organic Composition from Incense Burning in a California Residence

The chemical composition of incense-generated organic aerosol in residential indoor air has received limited attention in Western literature. In this study, we conducted incense burning experiments in a single-family California residence during vacancy. Here, we report the chemical composition of organic fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), associated emission factors (EFs), and gas-particle phase partitioning for indoor semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs). Speciated organic PM 2.5 measurements were made using two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled with high-resolution time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC×GC-HR-ToF-MS) and semivolatile thermal desorption aerosol gas chromatography (SV-TAG). Organic PM 2.5 EFs ranged from 7 to 31 mg g –1 for burned incense and were largely comprised of polar and oxygenated species, with high abundance of biomass-burning tracers such as levoglucosan. Differences in PM 2.5 EFs and chemical profiles were observed in relation to the type of incense burned. Nine indoor SVOCs considered to originate from sources other than incense combustion were enhanced during incense events. Time-resolved concentrations of these SVOCs correlated well with PM 2.5 mass (R 2 > 0.75), suggesting that low-volatility SVOCs such as bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate and butyl benzyl phthalate partitioned to incense-generated PM 2.5 . Both direct emissions and enhanced partitioning of low-volatility indoor SVOCs to incense-generated PM 2.5 can influence inhalation exposures during and after indoor incense use.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting nonequilibrium Green’s function dynamics and photoemission spectra via nonlinear integral operator learning

Understanding the dynamics of nonequilibrium quantum many-body systems is an important research topic in a wide range of fields across condensed matter physics, quantum optics, and high-energy physics. However, numerical studies of large-scale nonequilibrium phenomena in realistic materials face serious challenges due to intrinsic high-dimensionality of quantum many-body problems and the absence of time-invariance. The nonequilibrium properties of many-body systems can be described by the dynamics of the correlator, or the Green's function of the system, whose time evolution is given by a high-dimensional system of integro-differential equations, known as the Kadanoff–Baym equations (KBEs). The time-convolution term in KBEs, which needs to be recalculated at each time step, makes it difficult to perform long-time numerical simulation. In this paper, we develop an operator-learning framework based on recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to address this challenge. We utilize RNNs to learn the nonlinear mapping between Green's functions and convolution integrals in KBEs. By using the learned operators as a surrogate model in the KBE solver, we obtain a general machine-learning scheme for predicting the dynamics of nonequilibrium Green's functions. Besides significant savings per each time step, the new methodology reduces the temporal computational complexity from $O(N_t^3)$ to $O(N_t)$ where N t is the number of steps taken in a simulation, thereby making it possible to study large many-body problems which are currently infeasible with conventional KBE solvers. Through various numerical examples, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the operator-learning based approach in providing accurate predictions of physical observables such as the reduced density matrix and time-resolved photoemission spectra. Moreover, our framework exhibits clear numerical convergence and can be easily parallelized, thereby facilitating many possible further developments and applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Examining the Impacts of Great Lakes Temperature Perturbations on Simulated Precipitation in the Northeastern United States

Most inland water bodies are not resolved by general circulation models, requiring that lake surface temperatures be estimated. Given the large spatial and temporal variability of the surface temperatures of the North American Great Lakes, such estimations can introduce errors when used as lower boundary conditions for dynamical downscaling. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) influence moisture and heat fluxes, thus impacting precipitation within the immediate region and potentially in regions downwind of the lakes. For this study, the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) was used to simulate precipitation over the six New England states during a 5-yr historical period. The model simulation was repeated with perturbed LSTs, ranging from 10°C below to 10°C above baseline values obtained from reanalysis data, to determine whether the inclusion of erroneous LST values has an impact on simulated precipitation and synoptic-scale features. Results show that simulated precipitation in New England is statistically correlated with LST perturbations, but this region falls on a wet–dry line of a larger bimodal distribution. Wetter conditions occur to the north and drier conditions occur to the south with increasing LSTs, particularly during the warm season. Additionally, the precipitation differences coincide with large-scale anomalous temperature, pressure, and moisture patterns. Care must therefore be taken to ensure reasonably accurate Great Lakes surface temperatures when simulating precipitation, especially in southeastern Canada, Maine, and the mid-Atlantic region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗