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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31

Ice banding as a response of the coupled ice-ocean system to temporally varying winds

This study models formation of ice bands in the marginal ice zones. A one-dimensional coupled ice-ocean model is used in which the ice model is coupled to a reduced gravity ocean model through interfacial stresses. The internal ice stresses are important only at high ice concentrations (90-100 percent); otherwise, the main balance for the ice motion is between the air-ice stress and the ice-water stress, i.e., free drift. The drag coefficients were chosen so that the air-ice momentum flux is 3 times greater than the air-ocean momentum flux. Thus the Ekman transport is larger under the ice than in the open water, so that winds parallel to the ice edge, with the ice on the right, produce upwelling. The upwelling simulation was extended to include temporally varying forcing, which was chosen to vary sinusoidally with a 4-day period. This forcing resembles successive cyclone passings perpendicular to the ice edge. When the oceanic upper layer was thin, which means that the dynamics are strongly nonlinear, the ice bands were formed. The up/downwelling signals do not disappear in wind reversals because of nonlinear advection. This leads to convergences and divergences in oceanic and ice velocities that manifest themselves as ice banding. At least one wind reversal is needed to produce one ice band.

Hakkinen, S.↗

On some limitations on temporal resolution in imaging subpicosecond photoelectronics

Numerical modelling is used to analyse some effects restricting the enhancement of temporal resolution into the area better than 100 fs in streak image tubes and photoelectron guns. A particular attention is paid to broadening of an electron bunch as a result of Coulomb interaction. Possible ways to overcome the limitations under consideration are discussed. (extreme light fields and their applications)

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Robust Hybrid Deep Learning Model for Spatiotemporal Image Fusion

Dense time-series remote sensing data with detailed spatial information are highly desired for the monitoring of dynamic earth systems. Due to the sensor tradeoff, most remote sensing systems cannot provide images with both high spatial and temporal resolutions. Spatiotemporal image fusion models provide a feasible solution to generate such a type of satellite imagery, yet existing fusion methods are limited in predicting rapid and/or transient phenological changes. Additionally, a systematic approach to assessing and understanding how varying levels of temporal phenological changes affect fusion results is lacking in spatiotemporal fusion research. The objective of this study is to develop an innovative hybrid deep learning model that can effectively and robustly fuse the satellite imagery of various spatial and temporal resolutions. The proposed model integrates two types of network models: super-resolution convolutional neural network (SRCNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM). SRCNN can enhance the coarse images by restoring degraded spatial details, while LSTM can learn and extract the temporal changing patterns from the time-series images. To systematically assess the effects of varying levels of phenological changes, we identify image phenological transition dates and design three temporal phenological change scenarios representing rapid, moderate, and minimal phenological changes. The hybrid deep learning model, alongside three benchmark fusion models, is assessed in different scenarios of phenological changes. Results indicate the hybrid deep learning model yields significantly better results when rapid or moderate phenological changes are present. It holds great potential in generating high-quality time-series datasets of both high spatial and temporal resolutions, which can further benefit terrestrial system dynamic studies. The innovative approach to understanding phenological changes’ effect will help us better comprehend the strengths and weaknesses of current and future fusion models.

spatiotemporal fusion↗

Stochastic Modeling and Generation of Partially Polarized or Partially Coherent Electromagnetic Waves

Many new Earth remote-sensing instruments are embracing both the advantages and added complexity that result from interferometric or fully polarimetric operation. To increase instrument understanding and functionality a model of the signals these instruments measure is presented. A stochastic model is used as it recognizes the non-deterministic nature of any real-world measurements while also providing a tractable mathematical framework. A stationary, Gaussian-distributed model structure is proposed. Temporal and spectral correlation measures provide a statistical description of the physical properties of coherence and polarization-state. From this relationship the model is mathematically defined. The model is shown to be unique for any set of physical parameters. A method of realizing the model (necessary for applications such as synthetic calibration-signal generation) is given and computer simulation results are presented. The signals are constructed using the output of a multi-input multi-output linear filter system, driven with white noise.

Davis, Brynmor↗

High-Resolution Wind Resource Data Set of the Greater Puerto Rico Region

In February 2022, the U.S. Department of Energy and six national laboratories launched the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100). PR100 aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of possible pathways for Puerto Rico's energy future, with a goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050. As a part of the renewable energy potential assessment in this project, we developed 20 years (2001-2020) of data using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for onshore and offshore wind resource assessment for the Puerto Rico. The research steps in developing the long-term wind resource data sets based on the NWP model were: 1. Model wind resource based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. 2. Develop WRF model configurations for Puerto Rico. 3. Test WRF with 11 different physics parameterizations for planetary boundary layer (PBL). 4. Assess WRF output from the different PBL schemes against observations. 5. Select a final model configuration which can produce the modeled wind speed with sufficient accuracy. 6. Produce 20 years wind resource data sets for Puerto Rico region. In the first stage of our framework for developing wind resource data, we developed a WRF model configuration using two nested domains (9 km and 3 km) to cover Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands and downscale the ERA5 reanalysis data (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees; hourly interval) to a 3-km domain. For the second stage, we implemented one-year simulations focused on using 11 different PBL physics parameterizations to find a combination of WRF physics parameterizations that could provide accurately modeled wind speed for Puerto Rico. We also analyzed the sensitivity of the modeled wind speed to PBL schemes for onshore and offshore locations. The WRF output resulting from the 11 WRF experiments using different PBL parameterizations were evaluated against observations obtained from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) as well as at hub height for a location for which measurements were available. A final model setup selected through the validation with observational data was used to produce 20 years of data with 3-km spatial and 5-minute temporal resolution. The WRF model output was post-processed to include wind profiles and basic atmospheric variables in a format that can be easily used for downstream modeling. The 20 years of wind resource data will be made available through NREL and support the estimation of wind energy development costs for the PR100 study.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A new global ionospheric model

A new global ionospheric model has been successfully implemented. The daytime portion of this model provides one-way ionospheric range corrections that compare favorably with those derived from the Mariner Venus Mercury (MVM'73) S- and X-band dual frequency doppler data. For elevation angles, γ, higher than 30 deg and solar zenith angle, X, less than 80 deg, this model provides calibrations accurate to a few centimeters. The calibrations provided by the nighttime model are also very reasonable. These, however, will have to be compared with the S/X data from Viking ‘75 for final confirmation. It is interesting to note that the daytime ionospheric calibrations derived from the current calibration scheme, DIEN/TIEN, are fairly close to those given by the new global model, especially in the temporal variations and thus the doppler effects. In the daytime and for γ ≳ 30 deg and X < 80 deg, the calibrations from the two models agree almost exactly. However, for situations when γ is below 30 deg and X is larger than 80 deg simultaneously, as much as 12% (~70 cm, typically) improvement of the new model over DIEN/TIEN results. The comparison between the nighttime model and DIEN/TIEN has been based on the one-way ionospheric range corrections for three passes near the Mariner 9 encounter with Mars in 1971 tracked at Goldstone. It is found that they can differ by over 30% (typically 20 cm). As mentioned, the confirmation of these nighttime calibrations awaits the availability of the Viking S/X dual frequency doppler data. Finally, the ionospheric calibration effects on orbit determination provided by DIEN/TIEN, the global model, and the S/X data will be intercompared during the Viking Mission.

K. W. Yip↗

Space-Time Neural Networks

Concept of space-time neural network affords distributed temporal memory enabling such network to model complicated dynamical systems mathematically and to recognize temporally varying spatial patterns. Digital filters replace synaptic-connection weights of conventional back-error-propagation neural network.

Villarreal, James A.↗

Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

GIS↗

Deepti: Deep Learning-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation

We present the development of a deep learning model for objective estimation of tropical cyclone intensity at a higher temporal frequency, deployment of the model in production, design and implementation of the tropical cyclone monitoring and intensity estimation system and development of an interactive portal for situational awareness and evaluation of intensity estimation.

Maskey, Manil↗

Tethered Satellites as Enabling Platforms for an Operational Space Weather Monitoring System

Space weather nowcasting and forecasting models require assimilation of near‐real time (NRT) space environment data to improve the precision and accuracy of operational products. Typically, these models begin with a climatological model to provide "most probable distributions" of environmental parameters as a function of time and space. The process of NRT data assimilation gently pulls the climate model closer toward the observed state (e.g. via Kalman smoothing) for nowcasting, and forecasting is achieved through a set of iterative physics‐based forward‐prediction calculations. The issue of required space weather observatories to meet the spatial and temporal requirements of these models is a complex one, and we do not address that with this poster. Instead, we present some examples of how tethered satellites can be used to address the shortfalls in our ability to measure critical environmental parameters necessary to drive these space weather models. Examples include very long baseline electric field measurements, magnetized ionospheric conductivity measurements, and the ability to separate temporal from spatial irregularities in environmental parameters. Tethered satellite functional requirements will be presented for each space weather parameter considered in this study.

Krause, L. Habash↗

A HPC Theory-Guided Machine Learning Cyberinfrastructure for Communicating Hydrometeorological Data Across Scales

High-resolution predictions of hydrometeorological variables are critical for supporting hydropower generation decisions and flood control at hydroelectric power plants. Traditional climate and hydrologic models rely on the numerical simulation of detailed physical processes. Therefore, running these simulations is time-, labor-, and computation-intensive. Improving the spatial and temporal resolution in these modeling outputs could lead to cubic increases in both the simulation time and computational demands, rendering high-resolution hydrometeorological predictions expensive and impractical. Many past studies apply the super resolution (SR) technique to downscale climate models using deep learners. However, deep learners are deemed “black-boxes,” as their derivation processes from low-resolution outputs to high-resolution outputs are often hidden. Their results are difficult for domain scientists to interpret and validate. Thus, there is a need for an exploratory machine learning approach that can partially integrate domain-specific theory and knowledge into the data-driven mapping process between simulation outputs of different spatial scales. The domain-specific theory and knowledge can be incorporated into the data model through an inductive approach in which process-related environmental variables are used and analyzed as key drivers (i.e., environmental surrogates) to reflect the complex physical processes. Many of these variables, such as land use land cover, soil types, topography, digital elevation, air temperature, and various watershed characteristics, can be directly measured through sensors or remote sensing techniques. Additionally, SR applications that can downscale hydrological and hydrodynamics models to efficiently produce high-resolution (1 m) flood depth grids are still rare. Since the flood depth grid can be used to support critical decisions for flood control operation at hydroelectric power plants, it is crucial to enable an SR-based capability for interpolating high-resolution flood inundation maps.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Automata network models of galaxy evolution

Two ideas appear frequently in theories of star formation and galaxy evolution: (1) star formation is nonlocally excitatory, stimulating star formation in neighboring regions by propagation of a dense fragmenting shell or the compression of preexisting clouds; and (2) star formation is nonlocally inhibitory, making H2 regions and explosions which can create low-density and/or high temperature regions and increase the macroscopic velocity dispersion of the cloudy gas. Since it is not possible, given the present state of hydrodynamic modeling, to estimate whether one of these effects greatly dominates the other, it is of interest to investigate the predicted spatial pattern of star formation and its temporal behavior in simple models which incorporate both effects in a controlled manner. The present work presents preliminary results of such a study which is based on lattice galaxy models with various types of nonlocal inhibitory and excitatory couplings of the local SFR to the gas density, temperature, and velocity field meant to model a number of theoretical suggestions.

Chappell, David↗

TU-F-BRF-08: Intensity Modulation Expanded to Spatio-Temporal Space; IMRT Combined with Optimal Fractionation Schedule

Purpose: Past efforts to improve the therapeutic ratio have focused on a spatial approach where highly conformal radiation dose is given to tumors while minimizing dose to normal tissues, e.g., IMRT, VMAT, and IGRT. However, the fractionation schedule, i.e., a temporal approach to radiotherapy, has been largely overlooked so far in maximizing the therapeutic ratio. We establish a rigorous mathematical spatio-temporal approach to systematically investigate the feasibility and potential benefits of simultaneously optimizing radiation dose distribution in space and time. Methods: Stochastic control formalism is constructed to maximize the average tumor BED by choosing an optimal radiation dose distribution for an optimal number of fractions subject to normal tissue BED constraints. Three separate simulations are run on two groups of phantom cases; 5 cases with prostate cancer and 5 cases with head-and-neck cancer. (1) Conventional IMRT with 70Gy/35fx for head-and-neck, and 81Gy/45fx for prostate, (2) IMRT is done independently from the fractionation schedule optimization (S-model), (3) integrated spatio-temporal approach (I-model) where radiation intensities are simultaneously optimized for the first time ever in space and time. Final tumor BEDs from the three trials are compared in prostate and head-and-neck cases. Results: Numerical simulations show that final tumor BED from I-model is 20–90% larger than conventional IMRT, and 20-50% larger than S-model for head-and-neck cancer with α/β=10 and Tdouble=2–50 days. Final tumor BED from I-model is also 90–140% larger than conventional IMRT, and 20–30% larger than S-model for prostate cancer with α/β=2 and Tdouble=5–80 days. Conclusion: Our spatio-temporal optimization of radiotherapy allows an expansion of search space for the optimal treatment plans to include the temporal distribution of radiation dose in addition to the spatial distribution. Such spatio-temporal approach shows great potential to improve the therapeutic ratio, particularly with fast growing, aggressive tumors with short doubling time and/or low α/β.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Statistical spatio-temporal properties of the Laser MegaJoule speckle

This paper investigates a statistical model to describe the spatial and temporal properties of hot spots generated by the superimposition of multiple laser beams. In the context of the Laser MegaJoule design, we introduce the formula for contrasts, trajectories and velocities of the speckle pattern. Single bundle of four beams, two-cones and three-cones configurations are considered. Statistical properties of the speckle in the zone where all the beams overlap are studied with different configurations of polarizations. These properties are shown to be very different from the case of one single bundle of four beams. The configuration of polarization has only a slight effect in the two-cones or three cones configuration. Indeed, the impact of the double polarization smoothing is reduced in the area in which all the beams overlap, while it is much more significant when they split. Moreover, the size of the hot-spots decreases as the number of laser beams increases, but we show that their velocity decreases. As a matter of fact, the maximal velocity of hot spots is found to be only about 10{sup -5} of the velocity of light and the integrated contrast is about 15% when the beams overlap.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

GRB 110731A: Early afterglow in stellar wind powered by a magnetized outflow

One of the most energetic gamma-ray bursts, GRB 110731A, was observed from an optical to GeV energy range. Previous analysis of the prompt phase revealed similarities between the Large Area Telescope (LAT) bursts observed by Fermi: (1) a delayed onset of the high-energy emission (>100 MeV), (2) a short-lasting bright peak at later times, and (3) a temporally extended component from this phase, lasting hundreds of seconds. Additionally to the prompt phase, multiwavelength observations over different epochs showed that the spectral energy distribution was better fitted by a wind afterglow model. We present a leptonic model based on an early afterglow that evolves in a stellar wind of its progenitor. We apply this model to interpret the temporally extended LAT emission and the brightest LAT peak exhibited by the prompt phase of GRB 110731A. Additionally, using the same set of parameters, we describe the multiwavelength afterglow observations. The origin of the temporally extended LAT, X-ray, and optical flux is explained through synchrotron radiation from the forward shock (FS) and the brightest LAT peak is described, evoking the synchrotron self-Compton emission from the reverse shock (RS). The bulk Lorentz factor required in this model (Γ ≃ 520) lies in the range of values demanded for most LAT-detected GRBs. We show that the strength of the magnetic field in the RS region is ∼50 times stronger than that in the FS region. This result suggests that, for GRB 110731A, the central engine is likely entrained with strong magnetic fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Influence of inhomogeneous stochasticity on the falsifiability of mean-field theories and examples from accretion disc modelling

ABSTRACT Despite spatial and temporal fluctuations in turbulent astrophysical systems, mean-field theories can be used to describe their secular evolution. However, observations taken over time scales much shorter than dynamical time scales capture a system in a single state of its turbulence ensemble. Comparing with mean-field theory can falsify the latter only if the theory is additionally supplied with a quantified precision. The central limit theorem provides appropriate estimates to the precision only when fluctuations contribute linearly to an observable and with constant coherent scales. Here, we introduce an error propagation formula that relaxes both limitations, allowing for non-linear functional forms of observables and inhomogeneous coherent scales and amplitudes of fluctuations. The method is exemplified in the context of accretion disc theories, where inhomogeneous fluctuations in the surface temperature are propagated to the disc emission spectrum – the latter being a non-linear and non-local function of the former. The derived precision depends non-monotonically on emission frequency. Using the same method, we investigate how binned spectral fluctuations in telescope data change with the spectral resolving power. We discuss the broader implications for falsifiability of a mean-field theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Stellar X-ray temporal variations

Two separate theoretical models of X-ray sources were proposed, based on the premise that a pulsar can be hidden underneath a thick plasma cloud. The X-ray emission would come secondarily from the pulsar energy from the cloud underneath. Upper limits to the pulsed fraction for those conditions causing the most difficult detection of fluctuations are shown, along with power density and source of power spectra.

Holt, S. S.↗