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DOE OSTI2024

Design and optimization of flexible decoupled high-temperature gas-cooled reactor plants with thermal energy storage

Advanced nuclear power plants are well-positioned for future zero-carbon grids, however, the need for flexible power generation will be required over the traditional emphasis on baseload generation for meeting historical demands. To achieve such flexibility, this work examines viable configurations for coupling nuclear energy production with thermal energy storage. Previous designs on nuclear-thermal energy storage configurations for advanced reactor designs, which utilized reactor steam as the heat source for charging the thermal energy storage, are restricted by the heat diversion ratio and efficiency losses, thus their impacts can be limited. In this context, this study proposes configurations for fully decoupling the nuclear reactor from the power cycle and positioning the storage as an intermediate loop, thereby achieving an unconstrained heat diversion ratio and improved efficiency. Compared with a standard high-temperature gas-cooled reactor’s power cycle, steady-state thermodynamic modeling and dispatch optimizations quantify the benefits of a steam reheat cycle within the fully decoupled thermal energy system to separate the plant cycle from the high-pressure primary side. These benefits are further detailed, compatible with required high-temperature and high-pressure conditions, through (1) open-source dynamic transient models that examine the impact of off-design operation on the systems, (2) the investigation of components design and costing and finally (3) sizing and dispatch optimization. The fully-decoupled design achieves a cycle efficiency of 43.1%, an enhancement over the vendor’s standard efficiency of 42.2% (Xe-100 design). Here, the proposed design offers strengthened physical barriers from the nuclear island as well as superior operational flexibility and power boosting. Dispatch optimization and market analysis reveal that thermal energy storage size is highly dependent on the peak patterns of electricity prices and the minimum generation level constraint imposed on the balance of plant. Evaluation of off-design operation demonstrates that the full decoupling design with the suggested fail-safe control mechanisms ensures a minimal impact on reactor parameters, even during rapid power ramping.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2005

NASA GES DISC On-line Visualization and Analysis System for Gridded Remote Sensing Data

The ability to use data stored in the current NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) archives for studying regional or global phenomena is highly dependent on having a detailed understanding of the data's internal structure and physical implementation. Gaining this understanding and applying it to data reduction is a time-consuming task that must be undertaken before the core investigation can begin. This is an especially difficult challenge when science objectives require users to deal with large multi-sensor data sets that are usually of different formats, structures, and resolutions. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has taken a major step towards meeting this challenge by developing an infrastructure with a Web interface that allows users to perform interactive analysis online without downloading any data, the GES-DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure or "Giovanni." Giovanni provides interactive, online, analysis tools for data users to facilitate their research. There have been several instances of this interface created to serve TRMM users, Aerosol scientists, Ocean Color and Agriculture applications users. The first generation of these tools support gridded data only. The user selects geophysical parameters, area of interest, time period; and the system generates an output on screen in a matter of seconds. The currently available output options are: Area plot averaged or accumulated over any available data period for any rectangular area; Time plot time series averaged over any rectangular area; Hovmoller plots image view of any longitude-time and latitude-time cross sections; ASCII output for all plot types; Image animation for area plot. Another analysis suite deals with parameter intercomparison: scatter plots, temporal correlation maps, GIs-compatible outputs, etc. This allow user to focus on data content (i.e. science parameters) and eliminate the need for expensive learning, development and processing tasks that are redundantly incurred by an archive's user community. The current implementation utilizes the GrADS-DODS Server (GDS), and provides subsetting and analysis services across the Internet for any GrADS-readable dataset. The subsetting capability allows users to retrieve a specified temporal and/or spatial subdomain from a large dataset, eliminating the need to download everything simply to access a small relevant portion of a dataset. The analysis capability allows users to retrieve the results of an operation applied to one or more datasets on the server. We use this approach to read pre-processed binary files and/or to read and extract the needed parts directly from HDF or HDF-EOS files. These subsets then serve as inputs into GrADS analysis scripts. It can be used in a wide variety of Earth science applications: climate and weather events study and monitoring; modeling. It can be easily configured for new applications.

Leptoukh, Gregory G.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bench-Scale Development of Promoted High-Capacity Structured Sorbents (Final Technical Report)

The project objective was to develop high-capacity structured sorbent capable of achieving low CO 2 removal from air. The sorbent framework consists of an amine-functionalized onto hydrophobic polymer backbone with an added promoter. The functionalized amine provides high CO 2 capacity and adsorption rates and the polymer backbone to reduce water uptake. For the sorbent development, multiple functionalized amines and promoters were assessed to select a candidate that achieved high CO 2 capacity, high adsorption rate, and high stability. A sorbent-coated filter design was selected as the structured sorbent, which provides high sorbent loading capacity and contains an electrically conductive nonwoven filter substrate that can be Joule-heated to provide efficient utilization of available electricity for sorbent regeneration. A commercial partner operated a pilot filter manufacturing line to produce the filter panels coated with the developed sorbent. A 1 kg CO 2 /day bench unit was designed and fabricated to test the structured filter sorbent. The key achievements from the structured sorbent development activity were demonstrating that existing filter industrial-scale processes can be used for manufacturing Susteon’s structured sorbent and completing a proof-of-concept demonstration of the commercially manufactured structured sorbent filters for CO 2 capture from air with direct, Joule-heated regeneration. A techno-economic assessment with sensitivity analysis was conducted on a 100,000 TPY facility with 85% operating capacity. Through sorbent optimization and process design improvements, it is estimated that the cost of capture was reduced from $\$$349/tCO 2 to $\$$241/tCO 2 . The TEA projects further reductions to $165/tCO 2 through enhancements in CO 2 adsorption rate and sorbent capacity and reducing manufacturing and scale up risks. A life cycle analysis was conducted on the same 100,000 TPY facility and confirmed that the facility’s electricity demand drives its greenhouse gas impact. It was determined that electricity supplied through the current grid mix would result in net-positive CO 2 emissions and that achieving net-negative emissions is only possible by powering the system with renewable electricity or fossil fuel sources equipped with carbon capture and sequestration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2004

Distributive On-line Processing, Visualization and Analysis System for Gridded Remote Sensing Data

The ability to use data stored in the current Earth Observing System (EOS) archives for studying regional or global phenomena is highly dependent on having a detailed understanding of the data's internal structure and physical implementation. Gaining this understanding and applying it to data reduction is a time- consuming task that must be undertaken before the core investigation can begin. This is an especially difficult challenge when science objectives require users to deal with large multi-sensor data sets that are usually of different formats, structures, and resolutions, for example, when preparing data for input into modeling systems. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has taken a major step towards meeting this challenge by developing an infrastructure with a Web interface that allows users to perform interactive analysis online without downloading any data, the GES-DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure or "Giovanni." Giovanni provides interactive, online, analysis tools for data users to facilitate their research. There have been several instances of this interface created to serve TRMM users, Aerosol scientists, Ocean Color and Agriculture applications users. The first generation of these tools support gridded data only. The user selects geophysical parameters, area of interest, time period; and the system generates an output on screen in a matter of seconds. The currently available output options are: Area plot averaged or accumulated over any available data period for any rectangular area; Time plot time series averaged over any rectangular area; Time plots image view of any longitude-time and latitude-time cross sections; ASCII output for all plot types; Image animation for area plot. In the future, we will add correlation plots, GIS-compatible outputs, etc. This allow user to focus on data content (i.e. science parameters) and eliminate the need for expensive learning, development and processing tasks that are redundantly incurred by an archive's user community. The current implementation utilizes the GrADS-DODS Server (GDS), a stable, secure data server that provides subsetting and analysis services across the Internet for any GrADS-readable dataset. The subsetting capability allows users to retrieve a specified temporal and/or spatial subdomain from a large dataset, eliminating the need to download everything simply to access a small relevant portion of a dataset. The analysis capability allows users to retrieve the results of an operation applied to one or more datasets on the server. In our case, we use this approach to read pre-processed binary files and/or to read and extract the needed parts from HDF or HDF-EOS files. These subsets then serve as inputs into GrADS processing and analysis scripts. It can be used in a wide variety of Earth science applications: climate and weather events study and monitoring; modeling. It can be easily configured for new applications.

Leptoukh, G.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Economic Dispatch and Load-Following Strategies for Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems

The need for distributed and adaptable energy resources that can handle the growing unpredictability in both supply and demand is rising as the power system continues to modernize. In order to satisfy those needs and maintain grid resilience, nuclear power plants can dynamically control their output, despite typically being used as baseload generators. By incorporating energy storage and renewable energy sources, nuclear integrated energy systems are designed to satisfy the electrical and thermal demands of different end-user applications while ensuring flexible power operation. These systems generate revenue by participating in both wholesale and ancillary services electricity markets, as well as commodity markets for various byproducts generated from coupled industrial processes. This study addresses the economic dispatch efficiency of a tightly coupled nuclear integrated energy system comprising a gigawatt-scale light water reactor, commercialized in the U.S., a high-temperature steam electrolysis unit, a district heating network, and specified electrical loads. To demonstrate the nuclear power plant’s flexibility within the day-ahead unit commitment and economic dispatch framework, while maintaining equilibrium even during periods of refueling outages, this paper develops a mixed-integer linear programming framework that models the subsystems and components of its nuclear steam supply system. A systematic comparative analysis of flexible versus baseload nuclear power plant operation under varying levels of renewable energy integration indicates that flexible operation enhances system profitability by more than 18% while also increasing energy storage utilization, improving reactor responsiveness to load fluctuations, and allowing for greater participation across numerous electricity markets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Frozen Freedom: Unleashing Grocery Store Demand Flexibility: Preprint

Grocery stores consumed approximately 3% of total electricity used by commercial buildings in the U.S. in 2018 (EIA 2018), representing a unique end-use load profile characterized by the critical use of refrigerated display cases. Exploring demand response (DR) scenarios in grocery stores presents an opportunity to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of surrounding communities. In addition, recent studies demonstrate that implementing control algorithms considering demand flexibility strategies can lead to load and peak reductions in standalone refrigerated display cases. Because small business grocery stores operate on thin margins, the energy bill cost savings DR might provide could make a positive difference toward continued operations. Still, uncertainty remains about the extent of demand flexibility potential controls could provide when coupling refrigeration with whole building operation. To enhance economic viability and grid stability, it is essential to quantify the load flexibility capability of grocery stores. Advanced controls can optimize energy consumption by responding to load shedding, shifting, and DR events, as well as daily Time-of-Use (TOU) rates without compromising food safety. Using both quantitative data and interviews with community-based organizations, we developed a full-size store model and two small store models with controlled refrigerated cases, HVAC, and lighting systems based on actual grocery store properties. Through simulations, we have assessed load flexibility strategies with varied DR events. The results highlight potential for energy and peak reduction with advanced or basic controls. However, interviews and data indicate that more support is needed to make DR strategies consistently accessible to small grocery stores.

demand flexibility↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advances in supervisory control strategies for a heat pump centric HVAC system − a comprehensive review on applications

There is an increase in research investigating the development and deployment of supervisory controllers that enable high efficiency electrically driven vapor compression heat pumps operating within grid interactive efficient buildings to provide demand side management. This paper reviews over sixty relevant case studies within this domain that focus on commercial off-the-shelf heat pumps whose primary task is providing space conditioning. The concept of a heat pump-centric heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system is introduced, accompanied by a detailed overview of various kinds of electric heat pumps and building-level thermal energy storage configurations. Additionally, the different types of supervisory controller designs, including rule-based control and model predictive control, are discussed, along with the various methods for communication between a supervisory controller and a downstream heat pump’s local controller. A comparative analysis is conducted in order to categorize the reviewed case studies based on their system design, supervisory control algorithm, and validation methodology. This detailed analysis allows the review to establish current research trends, identify potential gaps, and suggest future directions for the development of this technology. Overall, the authors recommend that more future research be devoted to low-cost practical retrofits that allow for easy integration of active thermal energy storage within heat pump-centric heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system systems that utilize direct expansion heat pumps. We also suggest more research into the development and deployment of supervisory controllers that can properly communicate with commercial off-the-shelf heat pump local controller available control inputs, e.g., zone temperature setpoint. Lastly, more rigorous experimental demonstrations of advanced supervisory control within real and or closed-loop, transient/ quasi-steady state environments are necessary to reduce industry wide skepticism of this technology.

Demand side management↗

NASA NTRS1996

Algebraic Multigrid by Smoothed Aggregation for Second and Fourth Order Elliptic Problems

Multigrid methods are very efficient iterative solvers for system of algebraic equations arising from finite element and finite difference discretization of elliptic boundary value problems. The main principle of multigrid methods is to complement the local exchange of information in point-wise iterative methods by a global one utilizing several related systems, called coarse levels, with a smaller number of variables. The coarse levels are often obtained as a hierarchy of discretizations with different characteristic meshsizes, but this requires that the discretization is controlled by the iterative method. To solve linear systems produced by existing finite element software, one needs to create an artificial hierarchy of coarse problems. The principal issue is then to obtain computational complexity and approximation properties similar to those for nested meshes, using only information in the matrix of the system and as little extra information as possible. Such algebraic multigrid method that uses the system matrix only was developed by Ruge. The prolongations were based on the matrix of the system by partial solution from given values at selected coarse points. The coarse grid points were selected so that each point would be interpolated to via so-called strong connections. Our approach is based on smoothed aggregation introduced recently by Vanek. First the set of nodes is decomposed into small mutually disjoint subsets. A tentative piecewise constant interpolation (in the discrete sense) is then defined on those subsets as piecewise constant for second order problems, and piecewise linear for fourth order problems. The prolongation operator is then obtained by smoothing the output of the tentative prolongation and coarse level operators are defined variationally.

Vanek, Petr↗

DOE OSTI2024

Minimizing grid energy consumption in wastewater treatment plants: Towards green energy solutions, water sustainability, and cleaner environment

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) consume significant amount of energy to sustain their operation. From this point, the current study aims to enhance the capacity of these facilities to meet their energy needs by integrating renewable energy sources. The study focused on the investigation of two primary solar energy systems in As Samra WWTP in Jordan. The first system combines parabolic trough collectors (PTCs) with thermal energy storage (TES). This system primarily serves to fulfill the thermal energy demands of the plant by reducing the demands from boiler units, which allows more biogas for electricity generation. The second system is a photovoltaic (PV) system with Lithium-Ion batteries, which directly produces electricity that will be used to cover part of the electrical energy demands of plant. To assess the optimal configuration, two distinct scenarios have been formulated and compared to the current case scenario (SC#1). The first scenario focuses on maximizing the net present value (NPV) and minimizing the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). The second scenario is centred on minimizing the levelized cost of heat (LCOH). The findings indicate that both scenarios succeeded in reducing the reliance on the grid to a value that reach 1 %. Moreover, they both reduced biogas percentage in energy production from 88 % to approximately 65 % through the integration of the PV system. In terms of thermal demand, SC#2 reduced the reliance on biogas boiler units from 100 % to 25 %, while SC#3 achieved an even more impressive reduction to just 8 %. The best LCOE value was attained in SC#2, at 0.0895 USD/kWh, with an NPV of 10.54 million USD. Conversely, SC# 3 yielded an LCOH value of 0.0432 USD/kWh th compared to 0.0534 USD/kWh th USD for SC#2. In conclusion, despite their relatively high capital and operating costs, SC#2 and SC#3 managed to substantially decrease the annual electricity expenditure from approximately 2 million USD to 86,000 USD and 0 USD, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimal Co-Design of Integrated Thermal-Electrical Networks and Control Systems for Grid-interactive Efficient District (GED) Energy Systems

This project advances a unified, open-source framework for the optimal co-design of thermal, electrical, and control systems in grid-interactive efficient districts (GEDs). As communities integrate growing levels of distributed energy resources, traditional approaches that model thermal and electrical networks independently lead to reduced efficiency, limited flexibility, and missed opportunities for coordinated operation. To address these challenges, the research team developed a comprehensive suite of physics-based models, control algorithms, and software tools that enable holistic simulation, optimization, and demonstration of district-scale energy systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Super Tuesday Outbreak: Forecast Sensitivities to Single-Moment Microphysics Schemes

Forecast precipitation and radar characteristics are used by operational centers to guide the issuance of advisory products. As operational numerical weather prediction is performed at increasingly finer spatial resolution, convective precipitation traditionally represented by sub-grid scale parameterization schemes is now being determined explicitly through single- or multi-moment bulk water microphysics routines. Gains in forecasting skill are expected through improved simulation of clouds and their microphysical processes. High resolution model grids and advanced parameterizations are now available through steady increases in computer resources. As with any parameterization, their reliability must be measured through performance metrics, with errors noted and targeted for improvement. Furthermore, the use of these schemes within an operational framework requires an understanding of limitations and an estimate of biases so that forecasters and model development teams can be aware of potential errors. The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Spring Experiments have produced daily, high resolution forecasts used to evaluate forecast skill among an ensemble with varied physical parameterizations and data assimilation techniques. In this research, high resolution forecasts of the 5-6 February 2008 Super Tuesday Outbreak are replicated using the NSSL configuration in order to evaluate two components of simulated convection on a large domain: sensitivities of quantitative precipitation forecasts to assumptions within a single-moment bulk water microphysics scheme, and to determine if these schemes accurately depict the reflectivity characteristics of well-simulated, organized, cold frontal convection. As radar returns are sensitive to the amount of hydrometeor mass and the distribution of mass among variably sized targets, radar comparisons may guide potential improvements to a single-moment scheme. In addition, object-based verification metrics are evaluated for their utility in gauging model performance and QPF variability.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Searches for New Physics With Muon Conversion at Fermilab and Triboson Production at the LHC

We report on several efforts to search for physics beyond the standard model of particle physics at broad energy scales. The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for charged lepton flavor violation via the muon to electron conversion process, which is suppressed in the Standard Model. Mu2e will be operated at a low energy, yet can probe New Physics at very high mass scales (O(1e3 - 1e4 ) TeV). At high energies, the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC continues to deliver an impressive suite of Standard Model measurements and limits on a variety of New Physics signatures. Mu2e is under construction and slated to collect its first physics data in the coming years. This thesis describes work done during the construction phase of Mu2e and focuses on two critical areas: magnetic field modeling and statistical analysis. We describe a novel method for field modeling which we validate using a simulated dataset representing the expected magnetic field in the Detector Solenoid. This method blends a standard least-squares fitting technique that utilizes physically motivated analytical model functions with a novel physics informed network that is constructed to obey Maxwell’s equations. We show the technique can model the field with an accuracy of 10−7 despite the presence of injected noise in the pseudo-measurements at the 10−5 level. We then present preliminary results of the calibration of 3D Hall probes at the sub-10−4 level. These probes will be used to directly measure the Mu2e Detector Solenoid magnetic field on a sparse grid; these measurements serve as the input to the field model fitting. Finally, we describe the first implementation of both an unbinned shape analysis and a Bayesian interpretation applied to Mu2e pseudo-data. Up to 20% tighter limits can be set by the shape analysis compared to a standard cut & count analysis. The AlCap experiment collected data at PSI in 2015 to measure several important quantities related to nuclear muon capture on an aluminum target, which is a significant background process for Mu2e. The neutron emission from muon capture can introduce background hits in the Mu2e detectors and can increase radiation damage in various elements of the apparatus. We present measurements of the neutron group fluence and mean neutron multiplicity for muon capture on aluminum nuclei. Finally, we discuss an analysis of triboson production at CMS using an Effective Field Theory framework. Standard Model triboson production, which was first observed at CMS in 2020, has a relatively small cross section and provides direct access to both anomalous triple gauge couplings and quartic gauge couplings. These couplings, interpreted in the Standard Model Effective Field Theory, are studied in the present work. We target the boosted regime where the background rate is low and yields are enhanced when dimension-6 and dimension-8 Wilson coefficients are non-zero. We do not observe an excess in the data and therefore set bounds on the Wilson coefficients. For dimension-6 coefficients the tightest observed (expected) bounds are set on cW /Λ2 where Λ is the mass scale of new physics; the bounds are [−0.13, 0.12] TeV−2 ([−0.12, 0.12] TeV−2 ) at 95% CL. The tightest bounds in dimension-8 are set on fT,0 / Λ4 ; the observed (expected) bounds at 95% CL are [−0.63, 0.69] TeV−4 ([−0.54, 0.62] TeV−4 ). Additional results are presented which include scenarios where multiple Wilson coefficients are non-zero, the application of signal model clipping to address unitarity violation in Effective Field Theories, and a novel template fit developed for easier reinterpretation of our results.

Kampa, Cole Erik [Northwestern U. (main)] (ORCID:0↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen Policies on Uttar Pradesh's Power Sector Future: Additional Modeling Scenarios to Explore Hydrogen Flexibility [Slides]

This slide deck is part of a broader program focused on supporting Indian states with long-term power system planning. More information about this program can be found at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's "Supporting India's States With Renewable Energy Integration" web page at https://www.nrel.gov/international/india-renewable-energy-integration.html. The power sector in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, is poised to transform over the next few decades due to a combination of national and state-level policies impacting both the supply and demand of electricity. The Government of Uttar Pradesh has policies and plans to develop in-state solar PV, pumped storage hydropower, and green hydrogen. Power system policymakers and utilities in Uttar Pradesh are faced with the challenges of planning a system that incorporates increasing amounts of renewable energy and storage resources, meets rising electricity demand due to economic development and green hydrogen production, and satisfies operational and reliability requirements. To support these various objectives, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), RMI, and the Uttar Pradesh New and Renewable Energy Development Agency (UPNEDA) evaluated the least-cost pathways for the state's power sector through 2050. NREL developed a capacity expansion model that identifies investment and operational decisions for every year (2024-2050) for all of India, with detailed representation for the state of Uttar Pradesh, which can provide a framework for recurring planning studies. The purpose of this slide deck is to supplement the main study (published in May 2024) with additional modeling scenarios to explore hydrogen flexibility.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field Insights: Strengthening Digital Assurance Through On-Site Network Monitoring

The accelerating deployment of digital energy infrastructure, ranging from inverter-based resources (IBRs), battery energy storage systems (BESS), to advanced grid control platforms, has brought unprecedented visibility, flexibility, and efficiency to the electric grid. However, this digital transformation also introduces new cybersecurity challenges, particularly in the form of supply chain risks and operational blind spots at the grid edge. Over the past year, the Department of Energy’s Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER), through its Rapid Risk Assessment initiative, along with the Grid Deployment Office (GDO), through its Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance (TADA) initiative, have supported a series of on-site network engagements led by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). These engagements, conducted in partnership with asset owners across the country, have focused on identifying real-world vulnerabilities and misconfigurations in operational environments, many of which are not detectable through remote assessments or traditional compliance audits. The goal of this report is to distill key findings and lessons learned during network hunt engagements from INL’s fiscal year (FY) 2024 - 2025. It is intended to help asset owners—regardless of their participation in the program—better understand the evolving threat landscape and adopt practical measures to secure their digital energy infrastructure.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Long-Term field testing of the accuracy and HVAC energy savings potential of occupancy presence sensors in A Single-Family home

The energy-saving potential of occupancy-centric smart thermostats has been extensively explored in simulations but lacked field testing for energy savings quantification and sensor performance assessment in real buildings. This paper presents a long-term field study conducted in a single-family home in Texas, U.S. to evaluate the performance of occupancy-centric controls (OCC) of HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning) system in terms of energy savings, sensor accuracy, and impact on electric peak demand. The test site was equipped with a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) smart thermostat and multiple occupancy presence sensors for OCC implementation. Additionally, a sub-metering system was installed to monitor electricity consumption of various end-use equipment, including the HVAC system. A supplementary device was installed to track the ground-truth occupancy for the accuracy evaluation of the occupancy presence sensor. Scenarios of baseline and OCC controls were alternated weekly over the 20-month testing period. The results indicated an effective OCC execution, as evidenced by indoor temperature profiles. During the 2023 cooling season, OCC achieved total energy savings of 1,958 kWh, corresponding to a 17.6% energy savings ratio. Under certain conditions, daily HVAC energy savings reached as high as 17 kWh, with a savings ratio of 35%. Sensor performance showed an overall accuracy of 83.8%, a False Positive Rate (FPR) of 12.8%, and a False Negative Rate (FNR) of 47.4%. A key limitation was the sensor’s inability to detect stationary occupants during sleep, leading to a midnight FNR of nearly 100% and significantly compromising thermal comfort. Additionally, the implementation of OCC resulted in extended periods of high electricity demand on summer afternoons, affecting occupant’s thermal comfort and posing potential challenges to community-level grid operations if OCC were widely adopted. Furthermore, this study addresses a critical research gap by empirically investigating energy-saving potential and occupancy sensor performance in residential buildings. Through a comprehensive field-testing study, the research examines the interrelationship between sensor accuracy, energy savings, and thermal comfort, an area that has received limited attention in the current literature.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study - Interim Results: Electricity System Scenarios for 2030 [Slides]

Lithuania's Energy Vision aims to achieve self-sufficiency in electricity generation by 2035 and transition to 100% renewable energy as soon as possible while maintaining affordability, reliability, and energy security. The Lithuania Energy Agency (LEA) is partnering with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct the Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study (Lithuania 100) to provide evidence-based analysis for development of Lithuania's National Energy Independence Strategy. The Lithuania 100 Study leverages unique tools and capabilities of NREL to provide rigorous technical analysis of clean energy policies to achieve 100% renewable energy, and assess impacts on electricity grid operations, hydrogen system development, electricity distribution networks, air quality, and human health outcomes. The study is supported by a stakeholder committee chaired by the Ministry of Energy of Lithuania and implemented by four technical working groups. This report provides highlights of key interim results from modeling of Lithuania's near-term electricity grid through the year 2030. Results show that Lithuania has sufficient renewable energy potential, flexible generation capacity, and interconnection with neighboring European Union countries to reliably meet projected 2030 electricity demand with 100% renewable energy. A range of scenarios were modeled, each of which achieves at least 100% renewable energy in electricity, on average over the year, by 2030. Potential demands for hydrogen across industrial and transportation sectors were also evaluated, as well as the cost of hydrogen produced in Lithuania by 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cyber Resilience and Social Equity: Twin Pillars of a Sustainable Energy Future

This paper examines the intersection of security and accessibility within energy systems amidst the rise of grid modernization and digitization, especially considering the regulatory changes and the imperatives of inclusive energy strategies. It addresses the dual need for secure, resilient infrastructure and a commitment to mitigate energy poverty while maintaining equitable access to energy. Amid escalating cybersecurity and physical threats, the paper advocates for sustainable energy delivery systems that ensure robust defenses without compromising the goals of reducing energy poverty and ensuring energy security. This paper identifies the pressing need for Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) and Secure-by-Design (SbD) principles, highlighting how these strategies can protect critical infrastructure and democratize access to secure energy, particularly for disadvantaged communities. The analysis underscores the challenges presented by the expansion of attack surfaces, interoperability requirements, and grid-edge analytics, offering innovative solutions that leverage advanced technologies and data-driven insights. Furthermore, this paper addresses the workforce development gap, emphasizing the necessity for public-private partnerships and vendor engagement in creating a skilled cybersecurity workforce. This paper has a dual focus on both the technological aspect of cybersecurity and the social dimension of equity within the context of sustainable energy development. It suggests a comprehensive examination of how these two critical elements interact and support the overarching goal of a sustainable energy future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗