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DOE OSTI2020

2-D moving mesh modeling of lithium dryout in open surface liquid metal flow applications

Liquid lithium displays increasing promise as a replacement for solid plasma facing components (PFCs) in fusion device applications. The Liquid Metal Infused Trench (LiMIT) system, developed at the University of Illinois (UIUC), has demonstrated how thermoelectric magnetohydrodynamics (TEMHD) can be harnessed to drive liquid lithium flow in an open surface PFC. However, in the highest heat flux applications, large local acceleration is created via TEMHD, and the sudden increase in velocity can cause the liquid level to expose the underlying solid, eliminating the protective benefits of the lithium. In order to study potential mitigation strategies, a 2-D COMSOL Multiphysics model was developed using the moving mesh module to capture free surface flow. The model depicts the development of the dryout phenomenon for 2 test cases – slow (1 cm/s) and medium (10 cm/s) flow in 5 mm deep trenches – including the liquid level reduction under the high heat flux and the pileup of slower flow both upstream and downstream of the heat stripe. The effectiveness of trench shaping dryout mitigation strategies is examined. For the slow flow case, it is shown that a 1.8 mm ledge placed under the heat stripe will stop dryout, and for the medium flow case, a 2.7 mm ledge is required to mitigate the effect. This model can be used to identify strategies for increasing the viable heat load for open surface liquid lithium PFCs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characteristics of Ultralow Aspect Ratio Toroidal Plasmas and Non-Solenoidal Startup and Edge Stability Studies at Near-Unity Aspect Ratio (Final Report)

This grant supported a long-term research and development program to explore the physics and technology of spherical tokamak (ST) plasma behavior at near-unity aspect ratio ( A ). The PEGASUS Toroidal Experiment is a university-scale ( R ) ~ 0.40 m, α ~ .35 m, I p ≤ 0.3 MA, B T ≤ 0.15 T) experiment that accesses A → 1, to provide large values of the normalized plasma current, I N = I p /α B T , or equivalently the toroidal field utilization factor I p / I TF . The research activities focused on: 1) developing the technique of Local Helicity Injection (LHI) as a viable means of initiating and growing an ST plasma without the use of a central solenoid; 2) exploring the equilibrium and stability properties of spherical tokamak plasmas at extremely low aspect ratio; and 3) obtaining new insights in the properties of the enhanced confinement H-mode regime at A ~ 1. The initial (Phase I) facility employed a unique high-stress central solenoid Ohmic for current drive and heating with simple magnet current waveforms. A subsequent major upgrade (Phase II) offered more flexible control of the plasma evolution along with a powerful LHI system for plasma initiation, heating and sustainment. The LHI technique consists of injection of high-density current streams into vacuum toroidal and vertical magnetic fields. These streams become unstable and support magnetic reconnection to allow the system to relax into a tokamak-like magnetic configuration. This program focused on: 1) development of electron current sources that provide sufficiently high injection currents in the challenging edge plasma region; 2) validation of theoretical limits to achievable I p arising from magnetic helicity and energy conservation plus absolute limits arising from relaxation to a minimal energy states; 3) tests of a power balance model to describe the evolution of the plasma current I p (t); and 4) study of magnetic fluctuations and their role in the I p evolution. This culminated in the production of toroidal currents of I p ≥ 0.2 MA with only ~8 kA of injected current. Operation with Ohmic induction alone in Phase I created plasmas with soft limits on the achievable I p and field utilization ( I p / I TF ~ 1) due to the onset of large low-order (2/1 or 3/2) internal resonant tearing modes. With the expanded capabilities in Phase II operation, methods employed to mitigate those modes and achieve I p / I TF > 1 were: 1) I TF ramp-downs; 2) non-solenoidal startup via LHI; and 3) extremely low I TF Ohmic operations assisted by LHI current injector pre-ionization. Extensive use of LHI-driven startup and drive for non-solenoidal operation produced favorable current profiles to stably operate tokamak plasmas with unprecedentedly high I N = I p / aB T ~ 15 and I p / I TF > 2. With strong reconnection-driven anomalous ion heating, this in turn provided access to tokamak plasmas with B t up to 100%, a world record 2 times higher than that previously achieved in advanced or spherical tokamaks. This high B t regime had a large fraction (~50%) of the plasma volume in a region of an absolute minimum- B configuration. The MHD stability limit in this regime was the ideal external kink mode without a stabilizing wall. These results provided the first demonstration of access to tokamak plasmas with very high B t , high i N , high elongation κ, and low internal inductance ℓ i , and as such served as a proof-ofprinciple for access to this long-sought ST regime. The naturally low B T needed for stability at A ≤ 1.2 reduces the L-H mode power threshold, P LH , so that H-mode plasmas were achieved with Ohmic heating alone. The power threshold for the transition to the H-mode regime was found to be 10× the accepted values from the ITER international scaling, confirming initial trends indicated by experiments on MAST and NSTX, and suggesting that the physics behind this transition is not yet fully understood. The density dependence of the transition and the observed insensitivity to whether the plasma is bounded by a limiter or magnetic divertor are consistent with the recent FM 3 model. Multiple unstable toroidal magnetic modes were measured during ELM (Edge Localized Mode) crashes, with generally lower toroidal mode numbers than seen at higher A , which was attributed to the larger peeling mode instability drive at low A . First-ever edge current profile measurements through an ELM crash showed current-carrying filaments were generated, as seen in ELM simulations and in electromagnetic blob transport theory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1999

Simulation of Anomalous Regional Climate Events with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

The stretched-grid approach provides an efficient down-scaling and consistent interactions between global and regional scales due to using one variable-resolution model for integrations. It is a workable alternative to the widely used nested-grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. A variable-resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) employing a stretched grid, with enhanced resolution over the US as the area of interest, is used for simulating two anomalous regional climate events, the US summer drought of 1988 and flood of 1993. The special mode of integration using a stretched-grid GCM and data assimilation system is developed that allows for imitating the nested-grid framework. The mode is useful for inter-comparison purposes and for underlining the differences between these two approaches. The 1988 and 1993 integrations are performed for the two month period starting from mid May. Regional resolutions used in most of the experiments is 60 km. The major goal and the result of the study is obtaining the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest. The monthly mean prognostic regional fields for the stretched-grid integrations are remarkably close to those of the verifying analyses. Simulated precipitation patterns are successfully verified against gauge precipitation observations. The impact of finer 40 km regional resolution is investigated for the 1993 integration and an example of recovering subregional precipitation is presented. The obtained results show that the global variable-resolution stretched-grid approach is a viable candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power Analysis of an ePump Applied to the Linear Functions of an Agricultural Planter

Like many other industries, the agricultural industry has recently ex-perienced pressure to reduce vehicle emissions while improving productivity. Electric actuation is perceived as a viable solution to replace or augment hydrau-lic and mechanical actuation. However, electrification presents challenges with regards to linear functions, where hydraulic actuators have advantages in terms of compactness, tolerance to contamination and resistance to shocks. A combined electro-hydraulic actuation architecture can leverage the benefits of both electric and hydraulic actuation, while reducing the drawbacks of both approaches. This work investigates the potential of a centralized electric driven pump (ePump) system powering the pressure-controlled linear functions of an agricul-tural planter, with the goal of improving the operating point of the main supply pump. In this application, the rotary functions are hydraulically actuated, alt-hough such a solution could be applied also to electric rotary actuation. This is accomplished by setting the ePump to boost the pressure supplied by the tractor to the level required by the linear functions. An accumulator is used to stabilize the flow requirements of the linear functions, and control the pressure supplied to the actuators. Two control schemes are proposed for the regulation of the ac-cumulator pressure, one favoring an efficient operating point for the ePump, the other favoring stable steady state operation. A simulation model of the baseline system and proposed system is developed and validated using experimental data from a full-scale machine. Using the vali-dated simulation, both control architectures are then evaluated for improvement in system power consumption and dynamic requirements on the ePump to assess their effectiveness. Both systems demonstrate significant improvement in power consumption over the baseline system, with the best solution improving effi-ciency by 64%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2015

Using Empirical Models for Communication Prediction of Spacecraft

A viable communication path to a spacecraft is vital for its successful operation. For human spaceflight, a reliable and predictable communication link between the spacecraft and the ground is essential not only for the safety of the vehicle and the success of the mission, but for the safety of the humans on board as well. However, analytical models of these communication links are challenged by unique characteristics of space and the vehicle itself. For example, effects of radio frequency during high energy solar events while traveling through a solar array of a spacecraft can be difficult to model, and thus to predict. This presentation covers the use of empirical methods of communication link predictions, using the International Space Station (ISS) and its associated historical data as the verification platform and test bed. These empirical methods can then be incorporated into communication prediction and automation tools for the ISS in order to better understand the quality of the communication path given a myriad of variables, including solar array positions, line of site to satellites, position of the sun, and other dynamic structures on the outside of the ISS. The image on the left below show the current analytical model of one of the communication systems on the ISS. The image on the right shows a rudimentary empirical model of the same system based on historical archived data from the ISS.

Quasny, Todd↗

NASA NTRS2006

Evaluation of Mesoscale Model Phenomenological Verification Techniques

Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group, 45th Weather Squadron, and National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL use mesoscale numerical weather prediction model output in creating their operational forecasts. These models aid in forecasting weather phenomena that could compromise the safety of launch, landing, and daily ground operations and must produce reasonable weather forecasts in order for their output to be useful in operations. Considering the importance of model forecasts to operations, their accuracy in forecasting critical weather phenomena must be verified to determine their usefulness. The currently-used traditional verification techniques involve an objective point-by-point comparison of model output and observations valid at the same time and location. The resulting statistics can unfairly penalize high-resolution models that make realistic forecasts of a certain phenomena, but are offset from the observations in small time and/or space increments. Manual subjective verification can provide a more valid representation of model performance, but is time-consuming and prone to personal biases. An objective technique that verifies specific meteorological phenomena, much in the way a human would in a subjective evaluation, would likely produce a more realistic assessment of model performance. Such techniques are being developed in the research community. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to conduct a literature search to identify phenomenological verification techniques being developed, determine if any are ready to use operationally, and outline the steps needed to implement any operationally-ready techniques into the Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS). The AMU conducted a search of all literature on the topic of phenomenological-based mesoscale model verification techniques and found 10 different techniques in various stages of development. Six of the techniques were developed to verify precipitation forecasts, one to verify sea breeze forecasts, and three were capable of verifying several phenomena. The AMU also determined the feasibility of transitioning each technique into operations and rated the operational capability of each technique on a subjective 1-10 scale: (1) 1 indicates that the technique is only in the initial stages of development, (2) 2-5 indicates that the technique is still undergoing modifications and is not ready for operations, (3) 6-8 indicates a higher probability of integrating the technique into AWIPS with code modifications, and (4) 9-10 indicates that the technique was created for AWIPS and is ready for implementation. Eight of the techniques were assigned a rating of 5 or below. The other two received ratings of 6 and 7, and none of the techniques a rating of 9-10. At the current time, there are no phenomenological model verification techniques ready for operational use. However, several of the techniques described in this report may become viable techniques in the future and should be monitored for updates in the literature. The desire to use a phenomenological verification technique is widespread in the modeling community, and it is likely that other techniques besides those described herein are being developed, but the work has not yet been published. Therefore, the AMIU recommends that the literature continue to be monitored for updates to the techniques described in this report and for new techniques being developed whose results have not yet been published. 111

Lambert, Winifred↗

NASA NTRS2014

Xenon Fractionation, Hydrogen Escape, and the Oxidation of the Earth

Xenon in Earth's atmosphere is severely mass fractionated and depleted compared to any plausible solar system source material, yet Kr is unfractionated. These observations seem to imply that Xe has escaped from Earth. But to date no process has been identified that can cause Xe, which is heavier than Kr, to escape while Kr does not. Vigorous hydrodynamic hydrogen escape can produce mass fractionation in heavy gases. The required hydrogen flux is very high but within the possible range permitted by solar Extreme Ultraviolet radiation (EUV, which here means radiation at wavelengths short enough to be absorbed efficiently by hydrogen) heating when Earth was on the order of 100 Myrs old or younger. However this model cannot explain why Xe escapes but Kr does not. Recently, what appears to be ancient atmospheric xenon has been recovered from several very ancient (3-3.5 Ga) terrestrial hydrothermal barites and cherts. What is eye-catching about this ancient Xe is that it is less fractionated that Xe in modern air. In other words, it appears that a process was active on Earth some 3 to 3.5 billion years ago that caused xenon to fractionate. By this time the Sun was no longer the EUV source that it used to. If xenon was being fractionated by escape — currently the only viable hypothesis — it had to be in the less unfamiliar context of Earth’s Archean atmosphere and under rather modest levels of EUV forcing. This requires a new model. Here we address the circumstances in which Xe, but not Kr, could escape from Earth as an ion. In a hydrodynamically escaping hydrogen wind the hydrogen is partially photo-ionized. The key concepts are that ions are much more strongly coupled to the escaping flow than are neutrals (so that a relatively modest flow of H and H+ to space could carry Xe+ along with it), and that xenon alone among the noble gases is more easily ionized than hydrogen. This sort of escape is possible if not prevented by a planetary magnetic field. The best prospects for Earth are therefore escape along the polar field lines, although a very weak or absent magnetic field would likely work as well. As applied to the Archean Earth the discussion will be constrained by diffusion-limited hydrogen escape. The extended history of hydrogen escape implicit in Xe escape in the Archean is consistent with suggestions that hydrogen escape from the anoxic Archean atmosphere was considerable, because biogenic methane is expected to have been rather abundant. Hydrogen escape plausibly played the key role in creating oxidizing condition at the surface of the Earth and setting the stage for the creation of an O2 atmosphere.

photo-ionized gases↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effect of sintering temperature on adhesion of spray-on piezoelectric transducers

Conventionally sol-gel spray-on transducers require a high-temperature (> 700 ◦C) sintering process; however, this process can affect the microstructure of the substrate material. For mechanical elbows and valves utilized for fluid transport in the energy sector, the components are designed to have a specific microstructure, and deviations from these specifications can create weak points in the system. For this reason it is important to investigate how the temperature of the deposition process affects the substrate. This paper investigates the effect of high-temperature and low-temperature (< 150 ◦C) processing conditions on the surface composition of the substrate. Furthermore, the resultant transducers from high- and low-temperature fabrication processes are compared to determine if a low-temperature processing method is feasible. For these studies a sol-gel spray-on process is employed to deposit piezoelectric ceramics onto a stainless-steel 316L substrate. Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy is utilized to determine the composition of the substrate surface before and after transducer deposition. Results indicate that the high-temperature processing conditions may alter the surface composition of the metal due to a diffusion of the metal into the ceramic, which results in a metal surface that is bonded to the ceramic. Furthermore, it is shown that low-temperature processing of spray-on transducers is a viable method for transducer fabrication where the resultant transducers meet the industry minimum requirement of 30 dB signalto-noise ratio. In parallel simulation calculations, finite-element method (FEM) studies were performed to model the adhesive strength of the low-temperature processed transducer to the substrate surface. Comparisons between the simulations and experiments suggest that the bond strength is much greater than the commercial gel bonds and closer to hardened epoxy glue bonds. These results indicate that spray-on transducers fabricated under lowtemperature processing conditions are a viable solution for leave-in-place monitoring of structures.

M. Sinding, Kyle↗

NASA NTRS2018

Web-Based Geospatial Visualization of GPM Data with CesiumJS

Advancements in the capabilities of JavaScript frameworks and web browsing technology have made online visualization of large geospatial datasets such as those coming from precipitation satellites viable. These data benefit from being visualized on and above a three-dimensional surface. The open-source JavaScript framework CesiumJS (http://cesiumjs.org), developed by Analytical Graphics, Inc., leverages the WebGL protocol to do just that. This presentation will describe how CesiumJS has been used in three-dimensional visualization products developed as part of the NASA Precipitation Processing System (PPS) STORM data-order website. Existing methods of interacting with Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission data primarily focus on two-dimensional static images, whether displaying vertical slices or horizontal surface/height-level maps. These methods limit interactivity with the robust three-dimensional data coming from the GPM core satellite. Integrating the data with CesiumJS in a web-based user interface has allowed us to create the following products. We have linked with the data-order interface an on-the-fly visualization tool for any GPM/partner satellite orbit. A version of this tool also focuses on high-impact weather events. It enables viewing of combined radar and microwave-derived precipitation data on mobile devices and in a way that can be embedded into other websites. We also have used CesiumJS to visualize a method of integrating gridded precipitation data with modeled wind speeds that animates over time. Emphasis in the presentation will be placed on how a variety of technical methods were used to create these tools, and how the flexibility of the CesiumJS framework facilitates creative approaches to interact with the data.

3D↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1988

Abrupt climate change and extinction events

There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

Crowley, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Conceptual Launch Vehicle and Spacecraft Design for Risk Assessment

One of the most challenging aspects of developing human space launch and exploration systems is minimizing and mitigating the many potential risk factors to ensure the safest possible design while also meeting the required cost, weight, and performance criteria. In order to accomplish this, effective risk analyses and trade studies are needed to identify key risk drivers, dependencies, and sensitivities as the design evolves. The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) develops advanced risk analysis approaches, models, and tools to provide such meaningful risk and reliability data throughout vehicle development. The goal of the project presented in this memorandum is to design a generic launch 7 vehicle and spacecraft architecture that can be used to develop and demonstrate these new risk analysis techniques without relying on other proprietary or sensitive vehicle designs. To accomplish this, initial spacecraft and launch vehicle (LV) designs were established using historical sizing relationships for a mission delivering four crewmembers and equipment to the International Space Station (ISS). Mass-estimating relationships (MERs) were used to size the crew capsule and launch vehicle, and a combination of optimization techniques and iterative design processes were employed to determine a possible two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) launch trajectory into a 350-kilometer orbit. Primary subsystems were also designed for the crewed capsule architecture, based on a 24-hour on-orbit mission with a 7-day contingency. Safety analysis was also performed to identify major risks to crew survivability and assess the system's overall reliability. These procedures and analyses validate that the architecture's basic design and performance are reasonable to be used for risk trade studies. While the vehicle designs presented are not intended to represent a viable architecture, they will provide a valuable initial platform for developing and demonstrating innovative risk assessment capabilities.

Launch Vehicle↗

DOE OSTI2021

Progress on Optimizing Wind Farms and Rotor Designs Using Adjoints

Modern wind plants are increasingly tasked with multiple performance objectives. In addition to designing plants that maximize power output and minimize the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), the design and operation of wind plants is increasingly influenced by challenges regarding grid integration of variable generation renewables. This places a growing emphasis on making wind plants more controllable and predictable. WindSE is a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model designed around analytical gradient and adjoint methods, with the ability to capture terrain-induced effects, as shown in Figure 1. The recent addition of an unsteady solver with an actuator line method (ALM) and ongoing work to enable massively parallel optimizations gives it a unique niche to explore coupled plant-level controls and design problems. This code is an open source python package built on the FEniCS framework that utilizes fast, parallel PETSc solvers to model fluid flow throughout wind-farm scale domains. Two recent studies performed using WindSE demonstrate the capability to optimize under a wide variety of flow conditions and objective functions. In the first, we present an optimization focused on modifying the layout of a wind farm with a fixed number of turbines for maximum total power output [1]. This study highlights the ability to quickly perform simulations using the steady Navier-Stokes solver combined with rotors represented as actuator disks while also stressing the importance of capturing terrain-induced effects. Gradient-based optimization using the RANS equations is viable due to the inclusion of efficiently computed adjoint derivatives. We interpret the physical results of the optimal layout and also discuss the computational cost of scaling to larger problems. In the second study, we present the capabilities of the unsteady Navier-Stokes solver, where rotor-blade profiles represented by actuator lines are optimized to enhance wake steering effects and overall power production [2]. We quantify the wind plant performance gains obtained from this type of simultaneous control co-design optimization as compared to optimizing the blade design and yaw independently. Figure 2 shows the differences between a baseline two-turbine system and an optimized system where we fine-tune the blade chord profile. Results and challenges from each study are quickly summarized and used to motivate the current development efforts within WindSE. Current and future work is focused on enabling higher-resolution studies with more degrees of freedom through parallelization of both the simulation and optimization algorithms. We present benchmarking results to show that WindSE performs well in both weak- and strong-scaling tests and further demonstrate that the optimizer obtains the same convergence rates in both shared- and distributed-memory environments. Using larger wind farms, we can study deep-array effects within an optimization context, allowing the use of objective functions that have been previously unstudied. As an example, we present ongoing work on a blockage metric which characterizes the loss of available kinetic energy due to wake effects from multiple upstream turbines.

adjoint optimization↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonizing Medium- & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis

We simulate adoption and energy consumption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the medium and heavy duty (MD/HD) sector. With continued improvement in ZEV technologies, total-cost-of-driving parity with conventional vehicles is achievable by 2035 for all MD/HD vehicle classes. Two technological solutions – battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are viable in multiple market segments, offering alternative pathways for decarbonization. In this scenario, ZEV sales reach 99+% by 2045 and 42% by 2030. 80% of the MD/HD stock transitions to ZEVs by 2050, reducing CO2 emissions by 69% from 2019. Disparities in adoption rate and vehicle usage between vehicle classes and between short and long-haul applications highlight opportunities for targeted policies (to reduce emissions it is critical to understand what vehicles transition to ZEV, not just how many vehicles). Results are highly sensitive to assumed fuel prices, technology improvement trajectories, adoption decision-making, and assumptions about future freight demand and vehicle use.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Switchgrass Biomass Yields Using a Spectral Vegetation Index Derived from Multispectral Satellite Imagery

Successful scaling of perennial bioenergy crop production requires a landscape design that optimizes the benefits of finite lands for people, communities, and environments. Utilizing marginal areas is the key to sustainable bioenergy crop production (Ssegane et al., 2015, 2016). Marginal areas are often small-sized lands and unevenly distributed across the agricultural landscape (Ssegane et al., 2016); thus, a systematic, semi-automated remote sensing method is needed as an effective means of estimating bioenergy crop yields across landscapes. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is currently developing a tool, Scaling Up Perennial Bioenergy Economics and Ecosystem Services Tool (SUPERBEEST), to identify marginal agricultural lands and quantify environmental and economic effects of perennial bioenergy crop production systems. The tool aims to provide users a path to foster the sustainable and productive integration of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern agricultural landscape. Reliable, cost-effective, and timely estimation of bioenergy crop yields using remote sensing would help calculate and track the success of integrated bioenergy crops in the landscape for those communities. Argonne previously conducted feasibility studies for estimating biomass yields for bioenergy feedstock, corn and perennial grass using spectral vegetation indices (SVIs)1 derived from optical imagery (Hamada et al., 2015, 2021). In both studies, SVIs, more specifically those sensitive to plant chlorophyll or nitrogen contents, showed potential for estimating or predicting biomass yields with a correlation of determination (R2) ranging from 0.54 to 0.96, indicating a value for further investigation as a viable means of quantifying bioenergy feedstock production across large landscapes. Thus, the goal of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of use of SVIs as a means of estimating or predicting switchgrass biomass yields at harvest using publicly available multispectral satellite imagery. The feasibility analysis was performed using four study areas of mature switchgrass located in Virginia. Objectives are to (1) examine the SVIs and establish their relationships with switchgrass biomass yields at harvest, (2) develop a parsimonious image processing model for predicting at-harvest yields by applying the relationships with the most promising spectral index and (3) map switchgrass yields predicted by the image processing model across the study sites. The calibration to field data will rely on switchgrass biomass yields determined by the baling method, representing a potential challenge to the analysis but an important practical aspect for future applications. With this research design, the study aimed to gain insights into enabling remote sensing-based estimation of bioenergy crop yields in a reliable, cost- effective, and timely manner across large, heterogeneous landscapes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Algal Biofoundries for the Production of Polyurethane Precursors

The primary goal of the BEEPs project was to develop a process that could accelerate the development of algae as bioproduction platforms, from initial chemical product concept to an economically viable market supply. Under this program we elected to develop strains of algae that could generate polyurethane precursors, while simultaneously developing basic genetic tools to enable improved algal production systems. This program was specifically designed to incorporate National Laboratories as a means to utilize the expertise and facilities for new bio-production platforms. To that end, we designed a program to collaborate with the Agile BioFoundry at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and computational platforms at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). In addition to these National Laboratory partners, we also had academic partners from UC Davis and Georgia Tech, as well as commercial partners Algenesis Materials and BASF. To achieve these goals, we initially focused on developing the genetic tools and high throughput screening technologies necessary to generate and assess production of polymer precursors (succinic acid) in algae and cyanobacteria, including advanced promoters and biosensors. In parallel, we computationally identified potential production bottlenecks and then used the developed genetic tools to increase production rates and yields. Constant feedback of data was used in conjunction with machine learning, high-throughput cell sorting, and synthetic biology, for additional targeted metabolic engineering. Multiple rounds of tool design, building, testing, and learning were supplied to partners at PNNL and LBNL to develop new models and tools that could expedite bioproduction platform development and increase yield performance. We targeted, and achieved, the FOA requirement yield metric of 20 g/L, as a milestone and deliverable from at least one of our engineered strains for the production of succinic acid.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Empirical correlations for prediction of minimum miscible pressure and near-miscible pressure interval for oil and CO 2 systems

Although near-miscible CO 2 flooding has recently received considerable attention, no criteria are available to predict its applicability to a specific reservoir. Evaluating the viability of near-miscible flooding requires experimental exploration of a specific region in pressure–temperature space. The near-miscible pressure field is bounded on one side in P, T space by the MMP (minimum miscible pressure). This paper provides robust empirical correlations to estimate the MMP for both pure and impure CO 2 and for prediction of the near-miscible pressure region for CO 2 -oil. Many slim tube analyses, lacking high density data points, systematically underestimate the MMP, when the near miscible region is not accounted for. They are based on 147 published data sets that include: slim tube experimental determination of MMP; interfacial tension (IFT) between oil and CO 2 ; concentration of solution gas; and purity of the CO 2 . This paper is the first to begin a systematic exploration of the pressure-temperature space within which near-miscible effects characterize CO 2 floods. Our new correlations provide a basis for identifying and investigating the nature of near miscible effects associated with existing CO 2 floods. For a case study of an offshore field we determined that lower and upper pressure boundaries for effective near-miscible flooding, are 0.87 MMP and 1.07 MMP at reservoir temperatures. The proposed model is the first empirical correlation for the prediction of near-miscible pressure region, it will provide the basis for both screening the relative potential of oil reservoirs for economically viable miscible or near-miscible CO 2 -flooding.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Direct Observations of Surface Fluxes and Air‐Sea Exchange Coefficients in Low Winds Using a Small Uncrewed Aircraft System

In the marine boundary layer, the exchange of momentum, heat, and moisture occurs between the atmosphere and ocean. Since it is too dangerous for a crewed aircraft to fly close to the ocean surface to directly obtain these measurements, a sUAS (small Uncrewed Aircraft System) is one of the only viable options. On 24 March 2023 a Black Swift Technologies S0 sUAS was deployed from the NOAA P-3 on a calm clear day off the west coast of Florida. For 23 min at the end of the mission, the sUAS flew 8 straight line legs with an average length of 2.15 km, at roughly 10 m above the ocean surface, with wind speeds between 3.0 and 4.5 m s −1 . For the first time over the open ocean using a sUAS, the 4-Hz wind and thermodynamic data was used to calculate surface momentum flux, sensible heat flux, and latent flux using both direct covariance methods and the bulk aerodynamic formulas. Since all the flux quantities can be found using both direct and indirect methods, we are able to calculate the exchange coefficients of momentum flux (C D ), latent heat flux (C E ), and sensible heat flux (C H ) with results that are generally in good agreement with previous studies over the same wind speed range. This study demonstrates the ability of sUAS to measure air-sea interactions. Future intention is to use sUAS to obtain similar measurements in high wind events such as hurricanes which could better help understand hurricane intensification and improve model physics.

Deloach, Christopher J. [Embry-Riddle Aeronautical↗