Impact of Soil Moisture Active Passive Data Assimilation on Short-Term Numerical Weather Prediction During Warm Seasons
No abstract available
hydrology↗
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Development of Gridded Innovations and Observations Supplement to MERRA-2
Atmospheric reanalysis have become an important source of data for weather and climate research, owing to the continuity of the data, but especially because of the multitude of observational data included (radiosondes, commercial aircraft, retrieved data products and radiances). However, the presence of assimilated observations can vary based on numerous factors, and so it is difficult or impossible for a researcher to say with any degree of certainty how many and what type of observations contributed to the reanalysis data they are using at any give point in time or space. For example, quality control, transmission interruptions, and station outages can occasionally affect data availability. While orbital paths can be known, drift in certain instruments and the large number of available instruments makes it challenging to know which satellite is observing any region at any point in the diurnal cycle. Furthermore, there is information from the statistics generated by the data assimilation that can help understand the model and the quality of the reanalysis. Typically, the assimilated observations and their innovations are in observation-space data formats and have not been made easily available to reanalysis users.A test data set has been developed to make the MERRA-2 assimilated observations available for rapid and general use, by simplifying the data format. The observations are binned to a grid similar as MERRA-2 and saved as netCDF. This data collection includes the mean and number of observations in the bin as well as its variance. The data will also include the innovations from the data assimilation, the forecast departure and the analysis increment, as well as bias correction (for satellite radiances). We refer to this proof-of-concept data as the MERRA-2 Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO). In this paper, we present the data format and its strengths and limitations with some initial testing and validation of the methodology.
SSMI↗
Development of Gridded Innovations and Observations Supplement to MERRA-2
Atmospheric reanalysis have become an important source of data for weather and climate research, owing to the continuity of the data, but especially because of the multitude of observational data included (radiosondes, commercial aircraft, retrieved data products and radiances). However, the presence of assimilated observations can vary based on numerous factors, and so it is difficult or impossible for a researcher to say with any degree of certainty how many and what type of observations contributed to the reanalysis data they are using at any give point in time or space, or their contribution to the eventual analyzed fields. For example, quality control, transmission interruptions, and station outages can occasionally affect data availability. While orbital paths are known, drift in certain instruments, cloud clearing, and the large number of available instruments makes it challenging to know which satellite is observing any region at any point in the diurnal cycle. Furthermore, there is information from the statistics generated by the data assimilation that can help understand the model and the quality of the reanalysis. Typically, the assimilated observations and their innovations are saved in observation-space data formats and are not easily made available to reanalysis users.Here, we present an early version of a data set has been developed to make the MERRA-2 assimilated observations available for rapid and general use, by simplifying the data format. The observations are binned to a grid similar as MERRA-2 and saved as netCDF. This data collection includes the mean and number of observations in the bin as well as its variance. The data will also include the innovations from the data assimilation, the forecast departure and the analysis increment, as well as bias correction (for satellite radiances). In this paper, we present the data format (called MERRA-2 Gridded Innovations and Observations or GIO) and its strengths and limitations with some initial testing and validation of the methodology.
Bosilovich, Michael G.↗
Hourly dynamic line ratings for existing transmission across the contiguous United States (preliminary results) [Slides]
The thermal rating of a transmission line depends on the rate at which heat generated by current flow through the line can be dissipated into the environment by convective and radiative cooling, keeping the conductor below a maximum operating temperature. Static or seasonal line ratings assume nearly-worst-case weather conditions (high ambient air temperature, high solar irradiance, and low wind speed), resulting in a low risk of "overrating" a line (i.e., allowing more current to flow than the line is designed for) but a high fraction of time when the line is "underrated" (i.e., able to flow more current while staying below the maximum temperature). Dynamic transmission line ratings (DLR) use real-time measurements of weather conditions, line sag, or line temperature to determine the thermal rating of transmission lines at hourly or higher time resolution, allowing for increased ratings during some (cold, windy, and/or dark) periods and correcting for overrating during other (hot, calm, and/or sunny) periods. Many studies have explored the benefits of DLR, but typically for small collections of transmission lines under a limited sample of weather conditions, leaving open the question of how widely applicable the benefits of DLR might be over diverse geographies and weather conditions. Here, we combine geospatial data on tens of thousands of transmission line routes across the contiguous United States with high-resolution hourly historical weather data for 2007-2013 to estimate the impact of DLR and other weather-adjusted rating systems. We compare static and dynamic line ratings to intermediate ratings adjusted by ambient temperature, day/night irradiance, clear-sky irradiance, and/or measured irradiance, illustrating the benefits of incorporating progressively more detailed weather data into the calculated line ratings. Moving from nighttime-adjusted ratings to clear-sky-adjusted ratings provides more benefit than moving from clear-sky-adjusted ratings to measured-irradiance-adjusted ratings. Depending on the assumed static windspeed for irradiance-adjusted-ratings, DLR either corrects for overrated hours or provides substantially increased ratings in the majority of hours on the majority of lines.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Evaluating the Global Water and Energy Cycles in Reanalyses Using Ensemble Spread
Reanalyses provide continuous observation based global data over weather and climate time scales through observational assimilation. Ensemble forecasts are a component of modern data assimilation systems, providing information to the analysis process. Storing this spread over the duration of a climate reanalysis will provide insight to the variations of the model that underlies the reanalysis data. Global water and energy cycles (WECs) are a critical aspect of both weather and climate, yet there are some large gaps in the observation of key components as well as their representation in models and reanalyses. NASA’s Water and Energy cycle Studies (NEWS) program is developing a corrected and balanced budget data set that is closed at monthly and regional scales during the 21st century, so far. In this paper, we will evaluate reanalysis WEC components against the initial NEWS collection of observation, but integrate the analysis spread from the reanalysis data assimilation as a new perspective on the evaluation. The initial evaluation will cover a few more recent years using ERA5 10 member spread. As the GMAO’s production of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications 21st Century (MERRA-21C) progresses, the effort will include the MERRA-21C 32 member spread. Ultimately, we will explore the potential of the ensemble spread as a measure of uncertainty in the reanalysis.
Michael Bosilovich↗
The effect of geographic sampling on evaluation of extreme precipitation in high-resolution climate models
Traditional approaches for comparing global climate models and observational data products typically fail to account for the geographic location of the underlying weather station data. For modern global high-resolution models with a horizontal resolution of tens of kilometers, this is an oversight since there are likely grid cells where the physical output of a climate model is compared with a statistically interpolated quantity instead of actual measurements of the climate system. In this paper, we quantify the impact of geographic sampling on the relative performance of high-resolution climate model representations of precipitation extremes in boreal winter (December–January–February) over the contiguous United States (CONUS), comparing model output from five early submissions to the HighResMIP subproject of the CMIP6 experiment. We find that properly accounting for the geographic sampling of weather stations can significantly change the assessment of model performance. Across the models considered, failing to account for sampling impacts the different metrics (extreme bias, spatial pattern correlation, and spatial variability) in different ways (both increasing and decreasing). We argue that the geographic sampling of weather stations should be accounted for in order to yield a more straightforward and appropriate comparison between models and observational data sets, particularly for high-resolution models with a horizontal resolution of tens of kilometers. While we focus on the CONUS in this paper, our results have important implications for other global land regions where the sampling problem is more severe.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A Collaborative Decision Environment for UAV Operations
NASA is developing Intelligent Mission Management (IMM) technology for science missions employing long endurance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV's). The IMM groundbased component is the Collaborative Decision Environment (CDE), a ground system that provides the Mission/Science team with situational awareness, collaboration, and decisionmaking tools. The CDE is used for pre-flight planning, mission monitoring, and visualization of acquired data. It integrates external data products used for planning and executing a mission, such as weather, satellite data products, and topographic maps by leveraging established and emerging Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards to acquire external data products via the Internet, and an industry standard geographic information system (GIs) toolkit for visualization As a Science/Mission team may be geographically dispersed, the CDE is capable of providing access to remote users across wide area networks using Web Services technology. A prototype CDE is being developed for an instrument checkout flight on a manned aircraft in the fall of 2005, in preparation for a full deployment in support of the US Forest Service and NASA Ames Western States Fire Mission in 2006.
D'Ortenzio, Matthew V.↗
Weather and Random Forest-based Load Profiling Approximation Models and its Transferability across Climate Zones
This study is to provide predictive understanding of the associations of various weather attributes with residential and commercial load profiles, for a variety of climate zones and seasons. In this work, machine learning (ML) approaches were used to identify and quantify the impacts of various weather attributes on residential and commercial electricity demand and its components across the western United States. Performance and transferability of the developed ML models were then evaluated across different temperate zones (e.g., southern, middle, and northern US) and across coastal, mid-continent, and wet zones, with inputs of weather condition data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) at representative weather stations. The predictive models were developed based on the ranked/screened factors using the regression tree (RT) and random forest (RF) approaches, for five different scenarios (seasons).
load composite, Random Forest, regression tree, lo↗
NIRP Core Software Suite v.5.1
SAND2023-06610O The Nuclear Incident Response Program (NIRP) Core Software Suite is a set of code that supports multiple applications. It includes miscellaneous base code for data objects, mathematic equations, and user interface components that are used for developing large applications, including those used for data management. Among the types of applications: • Analyst Manager is used for managing contact information, which is also often included in reports and identifies the owners of calculations. • Radionuclide Viewer provides access to the Dose Coefficient File Package (DCFPAK) radiological data, and it complements the Mixture Manager tool. • Mixture Manager creates and manages radionuclides mixtures that are commonly used in other applications. • High Explosive Manager manages explosives and properties. • Chart Viewer is used for data charts such as meteorology charts and other charts specific to data needs. • Unit Converter converts numeric values to/from different units. This package includes object-oriented base code such as data objects describing the date, time, and location of an event; weather conditions; data types that support predefined ranges of values; a unit library, and others. The package also includes mathematic equations such as determining the distance between two points; erf functions; factorial functions; incidence fractions of probit curves; and others. Other features are customized user interface components for text fields; unit selectors (combo boxes); menus; panels; bug-tracking; and automated checks for software updates. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
Collins, Ian↗
Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Weather Forecasting
In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimension variational (3DVAR) analysis component (WRF-Var). Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in both clear and partly cloudy regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts due to instability added in the forecast soundings by the AIRS profiles. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.
Chou, Shih-Hung↗
Improving the Fire Weather Index System for Peatlands Using Peat-Specific Hydrological Input Data
The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, even though originally developed and calibrated for an upland Jack pine forest, is used globally to estimate fire danger for any fire environment. However, for some environments, such as peatlands, the applicability of the FWI in its current form, is often questioned. In this study, we replaced the original moisture codes of the FWI with hydrological estimates resulting from the assimilation of satellite-based L-band passive microwave observations into a peatland-specific land surface model. In a conservative approach that maintains the integrity of the original FWI structure, the distributions of the hydrological estimates were first matched to those of the corresponding original moisture codes before replacement. The resulting adapted FWI, hereafter called FWIpeat, was evaluated using satellite-based information on fire presence over boreal peatlands from 2010 through 2018. Adapting the FWI with model- and satellite-based hydrological information was found to be beneficial in estimating fire danger, especially when replacing the deeper moisture codes of the FWI. For late-season fires, further adaptations of the fine fuel moisture code show even more improvement due to the fact that late-season fires are more hydrologically driven. The proposed FWIpeat should enable improved monitoring of fire risk in boreal peatlands.
Canadian Fire Weather Index↗
Two decades of fumigation data from the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment facility
Abstract The Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE) facility is the longest running open-air carbon dioxide and ozone enrichment facility in the world. For over two decades, soybean, maize, and other crops have been exposed to the elevated carbon dioxide and ozone concentrations anticipated for late this century. The facility, located in East Central Illinois, USA, exposes crops to different atmospheric concentrations in replicated octagonal ~280 m 2 Free Air Concentration Enrichment (FACE) treatment plots. Each FACE plot is paired with an untreated control (ambient) plot. The experiment provides important ground truth data for predicting future crop productivity. Fumigation data from SoyFACE were collected every four seconds throughout each growing season for over two decades. Here, we organize, quality control, and collate 20 years of data to facilitate trend analysis and crop modeling efforts. This paper provides the rationale for and a description of the SoyFACE experiments, along with a summary of the fumigation data and collation process, weather and ambient data collection procedures, and explanations of air pollution metrics and calculations.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITES
Tiros & nimbus meteorological satellite systems - data acquisition & recording
DATA ACQUISITION↗
SEASAT economic assessment. Volume 9: Ports and harbors case study and generalization
This case study and generalization quantify benefits made possible through improved weather forecasting resulting from the integration of SEASAT data into local weather forecasts. The major source of avoidable economic losses to shipping from inadequate weather forecasting data is shown to be dependent on local precipitation forecasting. The ports of Philadelphia and Boston were selected for study.
Source record↗
An evaluation of techniques for the extraction of mineral absorption features from high spectral resolution remote sensing data
Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer data covering the wavelength range between 2000 and 2400 nm are examined for their ability to display the diagnostic mineral absorption features of certain alteration minerals, employing various data processing techniques. The techniques may be separated into two broad categories: scene based techniques that use parameters derived from the data themselves, and correction techniques utilizing external information such as solar/atmospheric models. Results indicate that the data corrected utilizing the LOWTRAN 7 atmospheric transfer code constrained with local weather station data are the most effective at showing the diagnostic absorption features of the regions of known mineralogy and introduce the least number of artifacts into the data.
Rast, Michael↗
Dynamic Domains in Data Production Planning
This paper discusses a planner-based approach to automating data production tasks, such as producing fire forecasts from satellite imagery and weather station data. Since the set of available data products is large, dynamic and mostly unknown, planning techniques developed for closed worlds are unsuitable. We discuss a number of techniques we have developed to cope with data production domains, including a novel constraint propagation algorithm based on planning graphs and a constraint-based approach to interleaved planning, sensing and execution.
Golden, Keith↗
Meteoritic Material Recovered from the 07 March 2018 Meteorite Fall into the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary
On 07 March 2018 at 20:05 local time (08 March 03:05 UTC), a dramatic meteor occurred over Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS) off of the Washington state coast (“OCNMS fall”, henceforth). Data to include seismometry (from both on-shore and submarine seismometers), weather radar imagery (Figure 1), and a moored weather buoy, were used to accurately identify the fall site. The site was visited by the exploration vessel E/V Nautilus (Ocean Exploration Trust) on 01 July 2018 [1] and by the research vessel R/V Falkor (Schmidt Ocean Institute) from 03-06 June 2019. Remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) from both vessels were used to search for meteorites and sample seafloor sediments. These expeditions performed the first attempts to recover meteorites from a specific observed fall in the open ocean. Analysis of weather radar data indicates that this fall was unusually massive and featured meteorites of unusually high mechanical toughness, such that large meteorites were disproportionately produced compared to other meteorite falls (Figure 2)[2-4]. We report the recovery of many (>100) micrometeorite-sized melt spherules and other fragments, and one small (~1mm3 ) unmelted meteorite fragment identified to date. Approximately 80% of the fragments were recovered from a single sample, collected from a round pit in the seafloor sediment. Melt spherules are almost exclusively type I iron-rich spherules with little discernible oxidation. Analyses are currently underway to attempt to answer the primary science question by identifying the parent meteorite type. Also, differences in the number and nature of samples collected by Nautilus and Falkor reveal a distinct loss rate to oxidation over the 15 months following the fall that is useful to inform future recovery efforts.
Fries, M.↗
Extreme Weather Events and the Impact on PV Time Series Data
The impact of extreme weather events on PV performance was studied by comparing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration database on severe weather with the PV Fleet database on continuous PV performance. We identified 170 systems that were immediately impacted by weather events. These severe weather events lead to a median loss of only 1% of annual production. However, flooding and high wind events were found to have an extremely long tail extending to 60 % loss showing that these discrete events can pose a substantial risk to PV systems. Besides the short-term impact of lost production due to outages, we also found a statistically significant increased performance loss rate (PLR) for high wind events comparing PLR before and after these weather events. In addition, hail events caused a higher PLR for 2 out of 3 systems. More data are required to better quantify the impact, but these first results illustrate the substantial risk these events pose short-and long-term.
degradation↗