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DOE OSTI2024

Observationally constrained analysis of sulfur cycle in the marine atmosphere with NASA ATom measurements and AeroCom model simulations

The atmospheric sulfur cycle plays a key role in air quality, climate, and ecosystems, such as pollution, radiative forcing, new particle formation, and acid rain. In this study, we compare the spatially and temporally resolved measurements from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission with simulations from five AeroCom III models for four sulfur species (dimethyl sulfide (DMS), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), particulate methanesulfonate (MSA), and particulate sulfate (SO 4 )). We focus on remote regions over the Pacific, Atlantic, and Southern oceans from near the surface to ~12 km altitude range covering all four seasons. In general, the differences among model results can be greater than 1 order of magnitude. Comparing with observations, model-simulated SO 2 is generally low, whereas SO 4 is generally high. Simulated DMS concentrations near the sea surface exceed observed levels by a factor of 5 in most cases, suggesting potential overestimation of DMS emissions in all models. With GEOS model simulations of tagging emission from anthropogenic, biomass burning, volcanic, and oceanic sources, we find that anthropogenic emissions are the dominant source of sulfate aerosol (40 %–60 % of the total amount) in the ATom measurements at almost all altitudes, followed by volcanic emissions (18 %–32 %) and oceanic sources (16 %–32 %). Similar source contributions can also be derived at broad ocean basins and on monthly scales, indicating the representativeness of ATom measurements for global ocean. Our work presents the first assessment of AeroCom sulfur study using ATom measurements, providing directions for improving sulfate simulations, which remain the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing estimates in aerosol climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward

Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some observed regional climate changes, such as amplified Arctic warming and land-sea warming contrasts have been predicted by climate models. However, many other observed regional changes, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature and monsoon rainfall are not well simulated by climate model ensembles even when taking into account natural internal variability and structural uncertainties in the response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This suggests climate model predictions may not fully reflect what our future will look like. The discrepancies between models and observations are not well understood due to several real and apparent puzzles and limitations such as the “signal-to-noise paradox” and real-world record-shattering extremes falling outside of the possible range predicted by models. Addressing these discrepancies, puzzles and limitations is essential, because understanding and reliably predicting regional climate change is necessary in order to communicate effectively about the underlying drivers of change, provide reliable information to stakeholders, enable societies to adapt, and increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. The challenges of achieving this are greater in the Global South, especially because of the lack of observational data over long time periods and a lack of scientific focus on Global South climate change. To address discrepancies between observations and models, it is important to prioritize resources for understanding regional climate predictions and analyzing where and why models and observations disagree via testing hypotheses of drivers of biases using observations and models. Gaps in understanding can be discovered and filled by exploiting new tools, such as artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution models, new modeling experiments in the model hierarchy, better quantification of forcing, and new observations. Conscious efforts are needed toward creating opportunities that allow regional experts, particularly those from the Global South, to take the lead in regional climate research. This includes co-learning in technical aspects of analyzing simulations and in the physics and dynamics of regional climate change. Finally, improved methods of regional climate communication are needed, which account for the underlying uncertainties, in order to provide reliable and actionable information to stakeholders and the media.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

AERO-MAP: a data compilation and modeling approach to understand spatial variability in fine- and coarse-mode aerosol composition

Abstract. Aerosol particles are an important part of the Earth climate system, and their concentrations are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, as well as being variable in size and composition. Particles can interact with incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation, change cloud properties, affect photochemistry, impact surface air quality, change the albedo of snow and ice, and modulate carbon dioxide uptake by the land and ocean. High particulate matter concentrations at the surface represent an important public health hazard. There are substantial data sets describing aerosol particles in the literature or in public health databases, but they have not been compiled for easy use by the climate and air quality modeling community. Here, we present a new compilation of PM2.5 and PM10 surface observations, including measurements of aerosol composition, focusing on the spatial variability across different observational stations. Climate modelers are constantly looking for multiple independent lines of evidence to verify their models, and in situ surface concentration measurements, taken at the level of human settlement, present a valuable source of information about aerosols and their human impacts complementarily to the column averages or integrals often retrieved from satellites. We demonstrate a method for comparing the data sets to outputs from global climate models that are the basis for projections of future climate and large-scale aerosol transport patterns that influence local air quality. Annual trends and seasonal cycles are discussed briefly and are included in the compilation. Overall, most of the planet or even the land fraction does not have sufficient observations of surface concentrations – and, especially, particle composition – to characterize and understand the current distribution of particles. Climate models without ammonium nitrate aerosols omit ∼ 10 % of the globally averaged surface concentration of aerosol particles in both PM2.5 and PM10 size fractions, with up to 50 % of the surface concentrations not being included in some regions. In these regions, climate model aerosol forcing projections are likely to be incorrect as they do not include important trends in short-lived climate forcers.

Mahowald, Natalie M. (ORCID:000000022873997X)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Future precipitation increase constrained by climatological pattern of cloud effect

The fractional increase in global mean precipitation (?P ¯/P ¯) is a first-order measure of the hydrological cycle intensification under anthropogenic warming. However, ?P ¯/P ¯ varies by a factor of more than three among model projections, hindering credible assessments of the associated climate impacts. The uncertainty in ?P ¯/P ¯ stems from uncertainty in both hydrological sensitivity (global mean precipitation increase per unit warming) and climate sensitivity (global mean temperature increase per forcing). Here, by investigating hydrological and climate sensitivities in a unified surface-energy-balance perspective, we find that both sensitivities are significantly correlated with surface shortwave cloud feedback, which is further linked to the climatological pattern of cloud shortwave effect. The observed pattern of cloud effect thus constrains both sensitivities and consequently constrains ?P ¯/P ¯. The 5%-95% uncertainty range of ?P ¯/P ¯ from 1979-2005 to 2080-2100 under the high-emission (moderate-emission) scenario is constrained from 6.34±3.53% (4.19±2.28%) in the raw ensemble-model projection to 7.03±2.59% (4.63±1.71%). The constraint thus suggests a higher most-likely ?P ¯/P ¯ and reduces the uncertainty by ~25%, providing valuable information for impact assessments.

Zhou, Wenyu↗

DOE OSTI2023

Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability

While there is evidence for an acceleration in global mean sea level (MSL) since the 1960s, its detection at local levels has been hampered by the considerable influence of natural variability on the rate of MSL change. Here we report a MSL acceleration in tide gauge records along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts that has led to rates (>10 mm yr -1 since 2010) that are unprecedented in at least 120 years. We show that this acceleration is primarily induced by an ocean dynamic signal exceeding the externally forced response from historical climate model simulations. However, when the simulated forced response is removed from observations, the residuals are neither historically unprecedented nor inconsistent with internal variability in simulations. A large fraction of the residuals is consistent with wind driven Rossby waves in the tropical North Atlantic. This indicates that this ongoing acceleration represents the compounding effects of external forcing and internal climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1981

Alterations of the climate of a primitive equation model produced by filtering approximations and subsequent tuning and stochastic forcing

A comparison is made of the simulated climates of nonlinear models based on the primitive equations (PE), balance equations (BE), and quasi-geostrophic (QG) equations. The models and numerical procedures are identical in all possible respects. The models are highly truncated spectral forms of Lorenz's (1960) energy preserving two-layer model. Two means of making use of the information contained in the (presumed known) short-term prediction error statistics are investigated. An unrealistically high level of thermal forcing is used so that the model climates are sufficiently different to allow any improvements due to the empirical methods to be observed. The general tuning problem is outlined and the QG model is tuned, using data obtained from a PE model run, to minimize the mean squared short term prediction error.

Hoffman, R. N.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of ITCZ width on global climate: ITCZ-MIP

Abstract. The width of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affects tropical rainfall, Earth's albedo, large-scale circulation, and climate sensitivity. To better understand the ITCZ width and its effects on global climate, we present a protocol to force changes in ITCZ width in climate models. Starting from an aquaplanet configuration with a slab ocean, adding surface heat fluxes in the deep tropics forces the ITCZ to narrow, and subtracting them causes it to widen. The protocol successfully generates changes in ITCZ width in all four climate models used in this study. ITCZ width in each model responds linearly to forcing magnitude and sign. Comparing across the four climate models, a response to varying ITCZ width that is remarkably consistent among models is the ITCZ strength, which is greater the narrower the ITCZ. On the other hand, the effect of varying ITCZ width on climate sensitivity is divergent among our four models, varying even in sign. Results from this pilot study highlight the connections between surface fluxes, ITCZ width, and the wider climate. A comprehensive model intercomparison project (MIP) has the potential to advance understanding of both the physical processes shaping ITCZ width and its influence on remote atmospheric circulations and global climate.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2020

Global Market and Economic Welfare Implications of Changes in Agricultural Yields Due to Climate Change

The economic welfare effects of climate change on global agriculture will be mediated by several complex biophysical and economic processes. For a given emissions scenario, these include: (1) the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing, (2) the response of crop yields to climate system and carbon dioxide changes, given baseline improvements in crop yields, (3) the response of agricultural markets to crop yield changes, and (4) the economic welfare implications of such market responses. In this paper, we use information about the first two processes from available climate-crop model comparison studies to analyze implications for the third and fourth processes. Applying the range of crop yield changes in a Global Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM) highlights several important economic relationships. First, we find a consistent relationship between global cropland area and yield change that is approximately orthogonal to the relationship between regional cropland area and yield change. Second, we find that the change in economic welfare, expressed as total surplus change per unit economic output, peaks during the 21st century. Third, we find that, at the global level, changes in yield affect both producer surplus and consumer surplus. Specifically, surplus changes to producers and consumers are always opposite in sign, although which economic actors gain or lose varies with the sign of yield change for any given commodity. Taken together, these results contribute to a growing body of research on climate-induced changes on agriculture by highlighting several economic relationships that are robust to differences in the underlying biophysical responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of host climate model on contrail cirrus effective radiative forcing estimates

Estimates of aviation effective radiative forcing (ERF) indicate that contrail cirrus is currently its largest contributor, although with a substantial associated uncertainty of ∼ 70 %. Here, we implement the contrail parameterisation developed for the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) in the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM), allowing us to compare, for the first time, the impact of key features of the host climate model on contrail cirrus ERF. We find that differences in background humidity between the models result in the UM-simulated contrail fractions being 2 to 3 times larger than in CAM. Additionally, the models show contrasting responses in overall global cloud fraction, with contrails increasing the total cloud fraction in the UM and decreasing it in CAM. Differences in the complexity of the cloud microphysics schemes lead to significant differences in simulated changes to cloud ice water content due to aviation. After compensating for the unrealistically low contrail optical depth in the UM, we estimate the 2018 contrail cirrus ERF to be 40.8 mW m−2 in the UM, compared to 60.1 mW m−2 in CAM. These values highlight the substantial uncertainty in contrail cirrus ERF due to differences in microphysics and radiation schemes between the two models. We also find a factor-of-8 uncertainty in contrail cirrus ERF due to existing uncertainty in contrail cirrus optical depth. Future research should focus on better representing microphysical and radiative contrail characteristics in climate models and on improved observational constraints.

Zhang, Weiyu [University of Leeds (United Kingdom)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Prescribing the aerosol effective radiative forcing in the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model v1

Aerosol effective radiative forcing critically influences climate projections but remains poorly constrained. Using the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) v1 configuration, we assess the sensitivity of the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol changes using a simplified prescribed aerosol scheme (SPA) derived from E3SM v3. Nudged simulations at 3 and 12 km horizontal grid spacings reveal a more negative aerosol forcing than the reference 100 km E3SM v3 whence the SPA properties are derived. The resulting globally averaged aerosol forcing signal is largely due to aerosol–cloud interactions and exhibits little overall resolution sensitivity, while hints of resolution sensitivity appear regionally between the 3 and 12 km runs. While the default SPA scheme overestimates cloud droplet dependence on aerosols, parameterization adjustments in the activation process reconcile forcing estimates with the reference model. Our results demonstrate the ability to use a prescribed aerosol scheme to hold aerosol forcing to a desired strength across resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Aerosol Complexity and Implications for Predictability and Short-Term Forecasting

There are clear NWP and climate impacts from including aerosol radiative and cloud interactions. Changes in dynamics and cloud fields affect aerosol lifecycle, plume height, long-range transport, overall forcing of the climate system, etc. Inclusion of aerosols in NWP systems has benefit to surface field biases (e.g., T2m, U10m). Including aerosol affects has impact on analysis increments and can have statistically significant impacts on, e.g., tropical cyclogenesis. Above points are made especially with respect to aerosol radiative interactions, but aerosol-cloud interaction is a bigger signal on the global system. Many of these impacts are realized even in models with relatively simple (bulk) aerosol schemes (approx.10 -20 tracers). Simple schemes though imply simple representation of aerosol absorption and importantly for aerosol-cloud interaction particle-size distribution. Even so, more complex schemes exhibit a lot of diversity between different models, with issues such as size selection both for emitted particles and for modes. Prospects for complex sectional schemes to tune modal (and even bulk) schemes toward better selection of size representation. I think this is a ripe topic for more research -Systematic documentation of benefits of no vs. climatological vs. interactive (direct and then direct+indirect) aerosols. Document aerosol impact on analysis increments, inclusion in NWP data assimilation operator -Further refinement of baseline assumptions in model design (e.g., absorption, particle size distribution). Did not get into model resolution and interplay of other physical processes with aerosols (e.g., moist physics, obviously important), chemistry

Predictability↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

Goossee, Hugues↗

NASA NTRS2015

Using Results from the PlioMIP Ensemble to Investigate the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period

During an interval of the Late Pliocene, referred to here as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the end of this century, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than preindustrial levels. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a significant reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mPWP provides a natural laboratory in which to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. At present, our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet during the mPWP is generally based upon predictions using single climate and ice sheet models. Therefore, it is essential that the model dependency of these results is assessed. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) has brought together nine international modeling groups to simulate the warm climate of the Pliocene. Here we use the climatological fields derived from the results of the 15 PlioMIP climate models to force an offline ice sheet model. We show that mPWP ice sheet reconstructions are highly dependent upon the forcing climatology used, with Greenland reconstructions ranging from an ice-free state to a near modern ice sheet. An analysis of the surface albedo variability between the climate models over Greenland offers insights into the drivers of inter-model differences. As we demonstrate that the climate model dependency of our results is high, we highlight the necessity of data-based constraints of ice extent in developing our understanding of the mPWP Greenland ice sheet.

sea level↗

NASA NTRS2011

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

Aerosols are a critical factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major reason for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosol effects on clouds could further extend to precipitation, both through the formation of cloud particles and by exerting persistent radiative forcing on the climate system that disturbs dynamics. However, the various mechanisms behind these effects, in particular the ones connected to precipitation, are not yet well understood. The atmospheric and climate communities have long been working to gain a better grasp of these critical effects and hence to reduce the significant uncertainties in climate prediction resulting from such a lack of adequate knowledge. The central theme of this paper is to review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes from theoretical analysis of microphysics, observational evidence, and a range of numerical model simulations. In addition, the discrepancy between results simulated by models, as well as that between simulations and observations will be presented. Specifically, this paper will address the following topics: (1) fundamental theories of aerosol effects on microphysics and precipitation processes, (2) observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, (3) signatures of the aerosol impact on precipitation from large-scale analyses, (4) results from cloud-resolving model simulations, and (5) results from large-scale numerical model simulations. Finally, several future research directions on aerosol - precipitation interactions are suggested.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

Aerosols are a critical factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major agent for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosol effects on clouds could further extend to precipitation, both through the formation of cloud particles and by exerting persistent radiative forcing on the climate system that disturbs dynamics. However, the various mechanisms behind these effects, in particular the ones connected to precipitation, are not yet well understood. The atmospheric and climate communities have long been working to gain a better grasp of these critical effects and hence to reduce the significant uncertainties in climate prediction resulting from such a lack of adequate knowledge. Here we review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on convective precipitation processes from theoretical analysis of microphysics, observational evidence, and a range of numerical model simulations. In addition, the discrepancy between results simulated by models, as well as that between simulations and observations, are presented. Specifically, this paper addresses the following topics: (1) fundamental theories of aerosol effects on microphysics and precipitation processes, (2) observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, (3) signatures of the aerosol impact on precipitation from largescale analyses, (4) results from cloud-resolving model simulations, and (5) results from large-scale numerical model simulations. Finally, several future research directions for gaining a better understanding of aerosol--cloud-precipitation interactions are suggested.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2006

Influence of Aerosols on Monsoon Circulation and Hydroclimate

Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global water cycles and climate change. In the Asian monsoon regions, the response of the regional water cycle and climate to aerosol forcing is very complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. Up to now, besides the general notion that aerosols may significantly impact monsoon through altering large scale radiative heating gradients, there has been very little information regarding the specific signatures, and mechanisms of aerosol-monsoon water cycle interaction. In this talk, based on preliminary results from observations and climate model experiments, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon water cycle, in particular the effects of absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon), and the role of the Tibetan Plateau. The influence of aerosol forcing relative to those due to sea surface temperature and land surface processes, and impact on potential predictability of the monsoon climate system will also be discussed.

Lau, William K.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Influence of Aerosols on Monsoon Circulation and Hydroclimate

Lau, William K.M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Climate and the equilibrium state of land surface hydrology parameterizations

For given climatic rates of precipitation and potential evaporation, the land surface hydrology parameterizations of atmospheric general circulation models will maintain soil-water storage conditions that balance the moisture input and output. The surface relative soil saturation for such climatic conditions serves as a measure of the land surface parameterization state under a given forcing. The equilibrium value of this variable for alternate parameterizations of land surface hydrology are determined as a function of climate and the sensitivity of the surface to shifts and changes in climatic forcing are estimated.

Entekhabi, Dara↗