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NASA NTRS1994

NCAR CCM2 simulation of the modern Antarctic climate

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) community climate model version 2 (CCM2) simulation of the circumpolar trough, surface air temperature, the polar vortex, cloudiness, winds, and atmospheric moisture and energy budgets are examined to validate the model's representation of the present-day Antarctic climate. The results show that the CCM2 can well simulate many important climate features over Antarctica, such as the location and intensity of the circumpolar trough, the coreless winter over the plateau, the intensity and horizontal distribution of the surface inversion, the speed and streamline pattern of the katabatic winds, the double jet stream feature over the southern Indian and Pacific oceans, and the arid climate over the continent. However, there are also some serious errors in the model. Some are due to old problems but some are caused by the new parameterizations in the model. The model errors over high southern latitudes can be summarized as follows: The circumpolar trough, the polar vertex, and the westerlies in midlatitudes are too strong; the semiannual cycle of the circumpolar trough is distorted compared to the observations; the low centers of the circumpolar trough and the troughs in the middle and upper troposphere are shifted eastward by 15 deg - 40 deg longitude; the surface temperatures are too cold over the plateau in summer and over the coastline in winter; the polar tropopause continues to have a cold bias; and the cloudiness is too high over the continent. These biases are induced by two major factors: (1) the cloud optical properties in tropical and middle latitudes, which cause the eastward shift of troughs and surface low centers and the error in the semiannual cycle, and (2) the cold bias of the surface air temperature, which is attributed to the oversimulation of cloudiness over the continent, especially during summer, and the uniform 2-m-thick sea ice. The constant thickness of sea ice suppresses the energy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and hence reduces the air temperature near the coast during winter. Finally, although the simulated Antarctic climate still suffers these biases, the overall performance of the CCM2 is much better than that of the CCM1-T42. Therefore the CCM2 is good enough to be used for climate change studies, especially over Antarctica.

Tzeng, Ren-Yow↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics for El Niño-La Niña asymmetry constrain equatorial-Pacific warming pattern

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results from the instability of and also modulates the strength of the tropical-Pacific cold tongue. While climate models reproduce observed ENSO amplitude relatively well, the majority still simulates its asymmetry between warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases very poorly. The causes of this major deficiency and consequences thereof are so far not well understood. Analysing both reanalyses and climate models, we here show that simulated ENSO asymmetry is largely proportional to subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) along the equatorial Pacific thermocline. Most climate models suffer from too-weak NDH and too-weak linear dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupling. Nevertheless, a sizeable subset (about 1/3) having relatively realistic NDH shows that El Niño-likeness of the equatorial-Pacific warming pattern is linearly related to ENSO amplitude change in response to greenhouse warming. Therefore, better simulating the dynamics of ENSO asymmetry potentially reduces uncertainty in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

How Much Global Burned Area Can Be Forecast on Seasonal Time Scales Using Sea Surface Temperatures?

Large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) patterns influence the interannual variability of burned area in many regions by means of climate controls on fuel continuity, amount, and moisture content. Some of the variability in burned area is predictable on seasonal timescales because fuel characteristics respond to the cumulative effects of climate prior to the onset of the fire season. Here we systematically evaluated the degree to which annual burned area from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 with small fires (GFED4s) can be predicted using SSTs from 14 different ocean regions. We found that about 48 of global burned area can be forecast with a correlation coefficient that is significant at a p < 0.01 level using a single ocean climate index (OCI) 3 or more months prior to the month of peak burning. Continental regions where burned area had a higher degree of predictability included equatorial Asia, where 92% of the burned area exceeded the correlation threshold, and Central America, where 86% of the burned area exceeded this threshold. Pacific Ocean indices describing the El Nino-Southern Oscillation were more important than indices from other ocean basins, accounting for about 1/3 of the total predictable global burned area. A model that combined two indices from different oceans considerably improved model performance, suggesting that fires in many regions respond to forcing from more than one ocean basin. Using OCI-burned area relationships and a clustering algorithm, we identified 12 hotspot regions in which fires had a consistent response to SST patterns. Annual burned area in these regions can be predicted with moderate confidence levels, suggesting operational forecasts may be possible with the aim of improving ecosystem management.

Chen, Yang↗

NASA NTRS2004

Application of Remote Sensing to Assess the Impact of Short Term Climate Variability on Coastal Sedimentation

The purpose of this joint University of Wisconsin (UW) and Louisiana State University (LSU) project has been to relate short term climate variation to response in the coastal zone of Louisiana in an attempt to better understand how the coastal zone is shaped by climate variation. Climate variation in this case largely refers to variation in surface wind conditions that affect wave action and water currents in the coastal zone. The primary region of focus was the Atchafalaya Bay and surrounding bays in the central coastal region of Louisiana. Suspended solids in the water column show response to wind systems both in quantity (through resuspension) and in the pattern of dispersement or transport. Wind systems associated with cold fronts are influenced by short term climate variation. Wind energy was used as the primary signature of climate variation in this study because winds are a significant influence on sediment transport in the micro-tidal Gilf of Mexico coastal zone. Using case studies, the project has been able to investigate the influence of short term climate variation on sediment transport. Wind energy data, collected daily for National Weather Service (NWS) stations at Lake Charles and New Orleans, LA, were used as an indicator of short term climate variation influence on seasonal time scales. A goal was to relate wind energy to coastal impact through sediment transport. This goal was partially accomplished by combining remote sensing and wind energy data. Daily high resolution remote sensing observations are needed to monitor the complex coastal zone environment, where winds, tides, and water level all interact to influence sediment transport. The NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) era brings hope for documenting and revealing response of the complex coastal transport mosaic through regular high spatial resolution observations from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument. MODIS observations were sampled in this project for information content and should continue to be viewed as a resource for coastal zone monitoring. The project initialized the effort to transfer a suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithm to the MODIS platform for case 2 waters. MODIS enables monitoring of turbid coastal zones around the globe. The MODIS SSC algorithm requires refinements in the atmospheric aerosol contribution, sun glint influence, and designation of the sediment inherent optical properties (IOPs); the framework for continued development is in place with a plan to release the algorithm to the MODIS direct broadcast community.

Menzel, W. Paul↗

DOE OSTI2024

California’s 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change

The increasing prevalence of low snow conditions in a warming climate has attracted substantial attention in recent years, but a focus exclusively on low snow leaves high snow years relatively underexplored. However, these large snow years are hydrologically and economically important in regions where snow is critical for water resources. Here, we introduce the term “snow deluge” and use anomalously high snowpack in California’s Sierra Nevada during the 2023 water year as a case study. Snow monitoring sites across the state had a median 41 y return interval for April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Similarly, a process-based snow model showed a 54 y return interval for statewide April 1 SWE (90% CI: 38 to 109 y). While snow droughts can result from either warm or dry conditions, snow deluges require both cool and wet conditions. Relative to the last century, cool-season temperature and precipitation during California’s 2023 snow deluge were both moderately anomalous, while temperature was highly anomalous relative to recent climatology. Downscaled climate models in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-370 scenario indicate that California snow deluges—which we define as the 20 y April 1 SWE event—are projected to decline with climate change (58% decline by late century), although less so than median snow years (73% decline by late century). This pattern occurs across the western United States. Changes to snow deluge, and discrepancies between snow deluge and median snow year changes, could impact water resources and ecosystems. Understanding these changes is therefore critical to appropriate climate adaptation.

Marshall, Adrienne M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Metrics for evaluating tropical cyclones in climate data

This manuscript describes a software suite that can be used for objective evaluation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in gridded climate data. Using cyclone trajectories derived from 6-hourly data, a comprehensive set of metrics is defined to systematically compare and contrast products to one another. In addition to annual TC climatologies, attention is paid to spatial and temporal patterns of storm occurrence and intensity. Assessment can be performed either on the global scale or regional domains. Simple to visualize ‘scorecards’ allow for rapid credibility assessment. We showcase three key findings enabled by this suite. First, we compare the representation of TCs in seven current-generation global reanalyses and conclude that higher resolution models and those with TC-specific assimilation contain more accurate storm climatologies. Second, using a free-running Earth system model (ESM) we find that full basin refinement is required in variable-resolution configurations to adequately simulate North Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, upstream refinement over northern Africa offers little benefit in simulating storm occurrence but spatial genesis patterns are improved. Finally, we show that TCs simulated by ESMs can be highly sensitive to individual parameterizations in climate models, with North Atlantic TC metrics varying greatly depending on version of the Morrison-Gettelman microphysics package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Aerosol Forcing of Climate Change and "Anomalous" Atmospheric Absorption

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well-measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. We will focus on the role of aerosols as a climate forcing mechanism and the contribution that aerosols might make to the so- called "anomalous" atmospheric absorption that has been inferred from some atmospheric measurements.

Hansen, James E.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Aerosol Forcing of Climate Change and Anomalous Atmospheric Absorption

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change, Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well-measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. We will focus on the role of aerosols as a climate forcing mechanism and the contribution that aerosols might make to the so-called "anomalous" atmospheric absorption that has been inferred from some atmospheric measurements.

Hansen, James E.↗

NASA NTRS2020

High productivity in hybrid-poplar plantations without isoprene emission to the atmosphere

Hybrid-poplar tree plantations provide a source for biofuel and biomass, but they also increase forest isoprene emissions. The consequences of increased isoprene emissions include higher rates of tropospheric ozone production, increases in the lifetime of methane, and increases in atmospheric aerosol production, all of which affect the global energy budget and/or lead to the degradation of air quality. Using RNA interference (RNAi) to suppress isoprene emission, we show that this trait, which is thought to be required for the tolerance of abiotic stress, is not required for high rates of photosynthesis and woody biomass production in the agroforest plantation environment, even in areas with high levels of climatic stress. Biomass production over 4 y in plantations in Arizona and Oregon was similar among genetic lines that emitted or did not emit significant amounts of isoprene. Lines that had substantially reduced isoprene emission rates also showed decreases in flavonol pigments, which reduce oxidative damage during extremes of abiotic stress, a pattern that would be expected to amplify metabolic dysfunction in the absence of isoprene production in stress-prone climate regimes. However, compensatory increases in the expression of other proteomic components, especially those associated with the production of protective compounds, such as carotenoids and terpenoids, and the fact that most biomass is produced prior to the hottest and driest part of the growing season explain the observed pattern of high biomass production with low isoprene emission. Our results show that it is possible to reduce the deleterious influences of isoprene on the atmosphere, while sustaining woody biomass production in temperate agroforest plantations.

oxidative stress↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hysteresis area at the canopy level during and after a drought event in the Central Amazon

Understanding forest water limitation during droughts within a warming climate is essential for accurate predictions of forest-climate interactions. In hyperdiverse ecosystems like the Amazon forest, the mechanisms shaping hysteresis patterns in transpiration relative to environmental factors are not well understood. From this perspective, we investigated these dynamics by conducting in situ leaf-level measurements throughout and after the 2015 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought. Our findings indicate a substantial increase in the hysteresis area (H area ) among transpiration (E), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and stomatal conductance (g s ) at canopy level during the ENSO peak, attributed to both temporal lag and differences in magnitude between g s and VPD peaks. Specifically, the canopy species Pouteria anomala exhibited an increased H area , due to earlier maximum g s rates leading to a greater temporal lag with VPD compared to the post-drought period. Additionally, leaf water potential (ψ L ) and canopy temperature (T canopy ) showed larger H area during the ENSO peak compared to post-drought conditions across all studied species, suggesting that stomatal closure, particularly during the afternoon, acts to minimize water loss and may explain the counterclockwise hysteresis observed between ψ L and T canopy . Here, the pronounced H area during the drought points to a potential imbalance between water supply and demand, underlining the role of stomatal behavior of isohydric species in response to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

El Niño–Southern Oscillation Evolution Modulated by Atlantic Forcing

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a strong influence on tropical Atlantic variability, but it is also affected by Atlantic forcing. Previous research has proposed three Atlantic precursors for ENSO: the North tropical Atlantic, the equatorial Atlantic, and the entire tropical Atlantic. However, the relative importance of these Atlantic precursors for ENSO remains unclear. Here, we present evidence from a set of multimodel partial ocean assimilation experiments that equatorial Atlantic cooling is the main contributor for weakening equatorial zonal winds in the Indo-Pacific sector and subsequent ocean warming in the tropical Pacific. Opposite tendencies occur for a warmer equatorial Atlantic. The equatorial Atlantic affects the interbasin climate seesaw between the Atlantic and Pacific through an atmospheric zonal Wavenumber 1 pattern. However, model mean state biases and systematic errors prevent a precise assessment of the response times for the equatorial Pacific trade winds to Atlantic forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Permafrost thermal conditions are sensitive to shifts in snow timing

Abstract Changes in snow precipitation at high latitudes can significantly affect permafrost thermal conditions and thaw depth, potentially exposing more carbon-laden soil to microbial decomposition. A fully coupled process-based surface/subsurface thermal hydrology model with surface energy balance is used to analyze the impact of intra-annual variability in snow on permafrost thermal regime and the active layer thickness. In the four numerical scenarios considered, simulations were forced by the same meteorological data, except the snow precipitation, which was systematically altered to change timing of snowfall. The scenarios represent subtle shifts in snow timing, but the snow onset/melt days, the end of winter snowpack depth, and total annual snow precipitation are unchanged among scenarios. The simulations show that small shifts in the timing of snow accumulation can have significant effects on subsurface thermal conditions leading to active layer deepening and even talik formation when snowfall arrives earlier in the winter. The shifts in snow timing have a stronger impact on wetter regions, especially soil underneath small ponds, as compared to drained regions. This study highlights the importance of understanding potential changes in winter precipitation patterns for reliable projections of active-layer thickness in a changing Arctic climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Critical needs to close monitoring gaps in pan-tropical wetland CH 4 emissions

Global wetlands are the largest and most uncertain natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ). The FLUXNET-CH 4 synthesis initiative has established a global network of flux tower infrastructure, offering valuable data products and fostering a dedicated community for the measurement and analysis of methane flux data. Existing studies using the FLUXNET-CH 4 Community Product v1.0 have provided invaluable insights into the drivers of ecosystem-to-regional spatial patterns and daily-to-decadal temporal dynamics in temperate, boreal, and Arctic climate regions. However, as the wetland CH 4 monitoring network grows, there is a critical knowledge gap about where new monitoring infrastructure ought to be located to improve understanding of the global wetland CH 4 budget. Here we address this gap with a spatial representativeness analysis at existing and hypothetical observation sites, using 16 process-based wetland biogeochemistry models and machine learning. We find that, in addition to eddy covariance monitoring sites, existing chamber sites are important complements, especially over high latitudes and the tropics. Furthermore, expanding the current monitoring network for wetland CH 4 emissions should prioritize, first, tropical and second, sub-tropical semi-arid wetland regions. Considering those new hypothetical wetland sites from tropical and semi-arid climate zones could significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions and reduce bias by 79% (from 76 to 16 TgCH 4 y -1 ), compared with using solely existing monitoring networks. Our study thus demonstrates an approach for long-term strategic expansion of flux observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analysing Scales of Precipitation

The Analysing Scales of Precipitation (ASoP) package is being interfaced with the DOE Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC) project. Users will be able to use the cmec-driver software to easily run ASoP and generate precipitation metrics as part of climate model evaluation workflows. These metrics provide information about the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation at different timescales.

Ordonez, AnaC.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking Simulated Precipitation in Earth System Models

Earth system models (ESMs) bridge observationally based and theoretical understanding of the Earth system. They are among the most often used tools to study a variety of questions related to variability and changes in Earth’s climate. For many applications, ESMs must realistically simulate observed large-scale precipitation patterns and seasonal cycles that have a multitude of societal and national security implications. Despite steady improvement in the simulation of precipitation, model errors in many aspects of precipitation characteristics limit the use of ESMs both in understanding Earth system variability and change and for decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurement, reporting and Verification (MRV) of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases: International Best Practices and Suggestions for China

Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) is a systematic approach to tracking and documenting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emission reductions. MRV can be used across all sectors and for all GHGs to track emissions patterns, evaluate programs, and promote transparency. As methane and other short-lived climate pollutants become critical to mitigating near-term climate change impacts, MRV systems become critical in improving emission inventories; facilitating the development of climate change policies and targets, and tracking and demonstrating progress towards sustainable development. This report focuses on current sectoral issues – including the emerging roles for satellites and remote sensing technologies - and international best practices in MRV policies and programs for non-carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) GHGs including methane, nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in specific sectors. Based on international best practices and a review of China’s current MRV system, we offer suggestions for a possible path forward for developing and implementing a stronger non-CO 2 MRV system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

EvoNet: A phylogenomic and systems biology approach to identify genes underlying plant survival in marginal, low‐N soils

The DOE‐BER “EvoNet” project investigates the genetic and molecular basis of plant resilience in extreme environments. We do this by identifying key genes that enable “extreme survivor” species to thrive in the nitrogen-poor soils of Chile’s hyper-arid Atacama Desert. Our collections focus on 32 Atacama extremophile species, including seven grass species with potential biofuel applications. To identify genes-of-importance to survival we compared genomic and transcriptomic profiles of extremophile species that thrive in the Atacama to those of closely related “sister” species from nitrogen-rich arid and mesic regions of California. Deep RNA sequencing and de novo transcriptome assembly across these triplet species sets supported a phylogenomic framework for identifying positively selected genes associated with adaptive divergence. Our integrative analysis combined ecological and environmental data, metagenomics, evolutionary and systems biology, and metabolomics. This enabled us to create an unprecedented framework for systematically understanding how non-model plants have adapted to survive in extreme conditions. Our resulting database of positively selected ortholog groups in the extremophile plants offers promising targets for engineering crop and biofuel species with enhanced resilience to drought and extreme weather. Additionally, our newest dataset explores and exploits a complementary metabolomic approach. This new aspect provides innovative strategies to manipulate plant cell metabolism, further supporting efforts to improve agricultural productivity in the face of extreme climates. Importantly, our combined evolutionary- and metabolomic-based strategies focused on convergent patterns of adaptation, providing a genetic and metabolomic toolkit for improving crop and biofuel resilience across diverse plant species. Finally, our novel exploration of ecological and evolutionary dynamics delivered to the community a phylogenomic computational pipeline called “PhyloGeneious.” Our continued adaptations of this pipeline are publicly available to expedite evolutionary genomic research for future scientific discoveries. In total, our DOE-BER has provided genomic, metabolomic, and computational strategies to understand how extremophile plants provide evolutionary and physiological targets for improving agricultural and biofuel production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A method for transporting cloud-resolving model variance in a multiscale modeling framework

Abstract. An unphysical checkerboard pattern has recently been identified in the multiscale modeling framework configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM-MMF) that is hypothesized to be associated with the inability of large-scale dynamics to transport fluctuations within the embedded cloud-resolving model (CRM) on the global grid. To address this issue, a method is presented to facilitate the large-scale transport of CRM variance in E3SM-MMF. Simulation results show that the method is effective at reducing the occurrence of unphysical checkerboard patterns on a range of timescales from days to years. This result is confirmed both subjectively through visual inspection and quantitatively with a previously developed pattern categorization technique. The CRM variance transport does not significantly alter the model climate, although it does tend to reduce temporal variance on fields associated with convection on the global grid.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗