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Simulation as a sustainable trading zone: Aiming at intergenerational justice

The paper, drawing on the example of simulation codes used in nuclear physics and high-energy physics, seeks to call attention to the ethical implications of discontinuing support for simulation codes and the loss of knowledge embodied in them. Predicated on the concept of trading zones and actor network models, the paper addresses the problem of extinction of simulation codes and attempts to understand their evolution and development within those frameworks. We show that simulation codes of closed type develop to the level of creoles, becoming local languages and standards of scientific centers and disappearing as their few main developers leave, whereas codes of open types become universal languages, imposing problemsolving patterns on the entire community and crowding out other codes. The paper suggests that because of simulations’ reliance on tacit knowledge, practices entrenched in codes cannot be exhaustively explicated or transmitted through writing alone; on the contrary, the life cycle of a simulation code is determined by the life cycle of its trading zone. We examine the extent to which both of these phenomena pose a risk to the preservation of knowledge. Bearing upon intergenerational ethics, we draw analogies between the pure intergenerational problem (PIP) and the problem of preserving the knowledge implemented in simulation codes and transmitting it to future generations. We argue that for the complete transfer of knowledge, it is necessary to develop and maintain inhabitability and sustainability of simulation trading zones in a controllable way, at least until the demand for these codes is warranted to cease in the future.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Parallel Simulation of Quantum Networks with Distributed Quantum State Management

Quantum network simulators offer the opportunity to cost-efficiently investigate potential avenues for building networks that scale with the number of users, communication distance, and application demands by simulating alternative hardware designs and control protocols. Several quantum network simulators have been recently developed with these goals in mind. As the size of the simulated networks increases, however, sequential execution becomes time-consuming. Parallel execution presents a suitable method for scalable simulations of large-scale quantum networks, but the unique attributes of quantum information create unexpected challenges. In this work, we identify requirements for parallel simulation of quantum networks and develop the first parallel discrete-event quantum network simulator by modifying the existing serial simulator SeQUeNCe. Our contributions include the design and development of a quantum state manager (QSM) that maintains shared quantum information distributed across multiple processes. We also optimize our parallel code by minimizing the overhead of the QSM and decreasing the amount of synchronization needed among processes. Using these techniques, we observe a speedup of 2 to 25 times when simulating a 1,024-node linear network topology using 2 to 128 processes. We also observe an efficiency greater than 0.5 for up to 32 processes in a linear network topology of the same size and with the same workload. We repeat this evaluation with a randomized workload on a caveman network. We also introduce several methods for partitioning networks by mapping them to different parallel simulation processes. We have released the parallel SeQUeNCe simulator as an open source tool alongside the existing sequential version.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Real-Time SCADA Cyber Protection Using Compression Techniques

The Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (DOE-OE) has a critical mission to secure the energy infrastructure from cyber attack. Through DOE-OE’s Cybersecurity for Energy Delivery Systems (CEDS) program, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed a method to detect malicious traffic on Supervisory, Control, and Data Acquisition (SCADA) network using a data compression technique. SCADA network traffic is often repetitive with only minor differences between packets. Research performed at the INL showed that SCADA network traffic has traits desirable for using compression analysis to identify abnormal network traffic. An open source implementation of a Lempel-Ziv-Welch (LZW) lossless data compression algorithm was used to compress and analyze surrogate SCADA traffic. Infected SCADA traffic was found to have statistically significant differences in compression when compared against normal SCADA traffic at the packet level. The initial analyses and results are clearly able to identify malicious network traffic from normal traffic at the packet level with a very high confidence level across multiple ports and traffic streams. Statistical differentiation between infected and normal traffic level was possible using a modified data compression technique at the 99% probability level for all data analyzed. However, the conditions tested were rather limited in scope and need to be expanded into more realistic simulations of hacking events using techniques and approaches that are better representative of a real-world attack on a SCADA system. Nonetheless, the use of compression techniques to identify malicious traffic on SCADA networks in real time appears to have significant merit for infrastructure protection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Artificial Intelligence-Aided Wind Plant Optimization for Nationwide Evaluation of Land Use and Economic Benefits of Wake Steering

If clean energy pathways are to harness massive increases in wind power, innovations with broad geographic viability will be needed to support buildout in diverse locations. However, geodiversity in impact potential is seldom captured in technology assessment. Here we propose a scalable approach to plant-level optimization using artificial intelligence to evaluate land sparing and economic benefits of wake steering at more than 6,800 plausible onshore wind locations in the USA. This emerging controls strategy optimizes plant energy production by directing turbine wakes. On the basis of estimates from our artificial intelligence model trained on engineering wind flow simulations, co-optimizing plant layouts with wake steering can reduce land requirements by an average of 18% per plant (site-specific benefits range from 2% to 34%), subject to errors and uncertainties in the flow model, wind resource estimates, buildout scenario and geographic factors. According to model estimates, wake steering is predicted to increase power production during high-value (relatively low wind) periods, boosting the annual revenue of individual plants by up to US$3.7 million (equivalent to US$13,000 MW-1 yr-1) but producing negligible gains in some settings. Consideration of wake steering’s geographic potential reveals divergent nationwide prospects for improved economics and siting flexibility.

deployment↗

NASA Tech Briefs, November 1995

The contents include: 1) Mission Accomplished; 2) Resource Report: Marshall Space Flight Center; 3) NASA 1995 Software of the Year Award; 4) Microbolometers Based on Epitaxial YBa2Cu3O(sub 7-x) Thin Films; 5) Garnet Random-Access Memory; 6) Fabrication of SNS Weak Links on SOS Substrates; 7) High-Voltage MOSFET Switching Circuit; 8) Asymmetric Switching for a PWM H-Bridge Power Circuit; 9) Better Ohmic Contacts for InP Semiconductor Devices; 10) Low-Bandgap Thermovoltaic Materials and Devices; 11) Digital Frequency-Differencing Circuit; 12) Imaging Magnetometer; 13) Computer-Assisted Monitoring of a Complex System; 14) Buffered Telemetry Demodulator; 15) Compact Multifunction Inspection Head; 16) Optical Detection of Fractures in Ceramic Diaphragms; 17) Eddy-Current Detection of Cracks in Reinforced Carbon/Carbon; 18) Apparent Thermal Conductivity of Multilayer Insulation; 19) Optimizing Misch-Metal Compositions in Metal Hydride Anodes; 20) Device for Sampling Surface Contamination; 21) Probabilistic Failure Assessment for Fatigue; 22) Probabilistic Fatigue and Flaw-Propagation Analysis; 23) Windows Program for Driving the TDU-850 Printer; 24) Subband/Transform MATLAB Functions for Processing Images; 25) Computing Equilibrium Chemical Compositions; 26) Program Processes Thermocouple Readings; 27) ICAN-Second-Generation Integrated Composite Analyzer; 28) Integrated Composite Analyzer with Damping Capabilities; 29) Computing Efficiency of Transfer of Microwave Power; 30) Program Calculates Power Demands of Electronic Designs; 31) Cost-Estimation Program; 32) Program Estimates Areas Required by Electronic Designs; 33) Program to Balance Mapped Turbopump Assemblies; 34) BiblioTech; 35) Controlling Mirror Tilt With a Bimorph Actuator; 36) Burst-Disk Device Simulates Effect of Pyrotechnic Device; 37) Bearing-Mounting Concept Accommodates Thermal Expansion; 38) Parallel-Plate Acoustic Absorbers for Hot Environments; 39) Adjustable-Length Strut Withstands Large Cyclic Loads; 40) Tool Indicates Contact Angles in Bearing Raceways; 41) Gravity Slides With Magnetic Braking; 42) High-Torque, Lightweight, Pneumatically Driven Wrench for Small Spaces; 43) Device for Testing Compatibility of an O-Ring; 44) Magnetic Heat Pump Containing Flow Diverters; 45) Variable-Tilt Helicopter Rotor Mast; 46) "Beach-Ball" Robotic Rovers; 47) Apparatus Would Measure Temperatures of Ball Bearings; 48) Flexible Borescope for Inspecting Ducts; 49) Texturing Copper To Reduce Secondary Emission of Electrons; 50) Automated Laser Cutting in Three Dimensions; 51) Algorithm Helps Monitor Engine Operation; 52) Flexible Revision of Data-Processing Communications; 53) Software for Managing the Use of Land; 54) Thermal Strap Increases Cryocooling Efficiency; 55) Reversible Nut With Engagement Indication; 56) Control Algorithms for Kinematically Redundant Manipulators; 57) Computed Hydrogen-Flow Splits in a Rocket Engine; 58) Pressure and Thermal Modeling of Rocket Launches; 59) Field of View of a Spacecraft Antenna: Analysis and Software; 60) Digital Controller for Laser-Beam-Steering Subsystem; 61) More About Beam-Steering Subsystem for Laser Communication; 62) Digital Controller for Laser-Beam-Steering Subsystem: Part 2; 63) Interface Circuit Board for Space-Shuttle Communications; 64) Automated Planning of Spacecraft Telecommunications; 65) Artifacts of Spectral Analysis of Instrument Readings; 66) Neural-Network Controller for Vibration Suppression; 67) Adaptive Finite-Element Computation in Fracture Mechanics; 68) Attitude Control for the Cassini Spacecraft; 69) Analytical Model for Fluid Dynamics in a Microgravity Environment; 70) Study of Rocket-Engine Joints Bonded by NVCU/NARloy-Z; 71) Improved Silicon Nitride for Advanced Heat Engines; 72) Parameters for Welding Aluminum/Lithium Alloys; 73) Lightweight Composite Intertank Structure; 74) Foil Patches Seal Small Vacuum Leaks; 75) Data Base on Cables and Connectors; 76) Effect of Clock Mode on Radiation Hardnessf an ADC; and 77) Fault-Tolerant Control for a Robotic Inspection System.

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Molecular Dynamics Simulation of Hydration and Swelling of Mixed-Layer Clays in the Presence of Carbon Dioxide

Swelling of clay minerals is a prime anomaly that is relevant to many problems in geoscience, oil and gas reservoirs, geophysics, and engineering. The phenomenon is even more complex when carbon dioxide is also present. Since sequestration of CO 2 in sedimentary rock has been under active consideration as a way of alleviating the increasing concerns over climate change for which CO 2 is a main culprit, studying swelling of clays minerals in the presence of CO 2 has taken on added urgency. The swelling changes the permeability and porosity of porous formations, which in turn may lead to a reactivation of dormant fractures, triggering seismic activities, and opening up new pathways for CO 2 to return to the porous formations’ surface. Although the large majority of sedimentary rocks contain various types of mixed-layer clays (MLCs) with intermixed stacking sequences of several types of distinct layers within a single crystal, the vast majority of the past experimental and computational studies of the swelling was focused on pure clays. We present the results of extensive molecular dynamics simulation of hydration and swelling of illite-montmorillonite (I-MMT) MLCs, the most common type of mixed clays, in the presence of both water and CO 2 and various combinations of interlayer cations, Na + and K + . To understand the differences with pure clays, we also report on the same phenomenon in the MMT only. At low CO 2 concentrations in Na-MMT, which has its layers’ charge concentrated in its octahedral sheet, weak ion–surface interactions result in fully hydrated ions and, therefore, more extensive swelling than in I-MMT. Without CO 2 , adsorption of the cations at the illite surface increases the hydrophobicity of its surface. Thus, in the asymmetric interlayer of I-MMT, illite with stronger surface–ion interactions causes accumulation of cations near its surface, which limits their hydration and, therefore, controls swelling of the MLCs. Further inhibition of swelling of Na-MLC can be achieved by increasing the concentration of K + in the interlayer. At higher CO 2 concentrations, however, intercalation of water and CO 2 results in a completely different behavior, since in the 2W and 3W hydration states, the hydrophobicity of the MMT surface is stronger than that of illite. Thus, the density distributions of the intercalated molecules are considerably different from that with water only, which together with disruption of the water network by CO 2 reduces the difference between the extent of swelling of the MLC and pure MMT.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Large-Scale Numerical Simulations of Human Motion

This paper examines the feasibility of using massively-parallel and vector-processing supercomputers to solve large-scale optimal control problems for human movement. Specifically, we compare the computational expense of determining the optimal controls for the single support phase of walking using a conventional serial machine (a Silicon Graphics Personal Iris 4D25 workstation), a MIMD parallel machine (an Intel iPSC/860 comprising 128 processors), and a parallel-vector-processing machine (a Cray Y-MP 8/864). With the human body modeled as a 14 degree-of-freedom linkage actuated by 46 musculotendinous units, computation of the optimal controls for walking could take up to 3 months of CPU time on the Iris. Both the Cray Y-MP and the Intel iPSC/860 are able to reduce this time to practical levels. The optimal control solution for walking can be found with about 77 hours of CPU time on the Cray, and with about 88 hours of CPU time on the Intel. Although the overall speeds of the Cray and the Intel were found to be similar, the unique capabilities of each machine are best suited to different parts of the optimal control algorithm used. The Intel performed best in the calculation of the derivatives of the performance criterion and the constraints. In contrast, the Cray performed best during parameter optimization of the controls. These results suggest that the ideal computer architecture for solving very large-scale optimal control problems is a hybrid system in which a vector-processing machine is integrated into the communication network of a MIMD parallel machine.

Anderson, Frank C.↗

Project Boeing SGS (Final Report)

Boeing and its partner, PJM Interconnection, teamed to bring advanced “defense-grade” technologies for cyber security to the US regional power grid through demonstration in PJM’s energy management environment. Under this cooperative project with the Department of Energy, Boeing and PJM have developed and demonstrated a host of technologies specifically tailored to the needs of PJM and the electric sector as a whole. The team has demonstrated to the energy industry a combination of processes, techniques and technologies that have been successfully implemented in the commercial, defense, and intelligence communities to identify, mitigate and continuously monitor the cyber security of critical systems. Guided by the results of a Cyber Security Risk-Based Assessment completed in Phase I, the Boeing-PJM team has completed multiple iterations through the Phase II Development and Phase III Deployment phases. Multiple cyber security solutions have been completed across a variety of controls including: Application Security, Enhanced Malware Detection, Security Incident and Event Management (SIEM) Optimization, Continuous Vulnerability Monitoring, SCADA Monitoring/Intrusion Detection, Operational Resiliency, Cyber Range simulations and hands on cyber security personnel training. All of the developed and demonstrated solutions are suitable for replication across the electric sector and/or the energy sector as a whole. Benefits identified include; Improved malware and intrusion detection capability on critical SCADA networks including behavioral-based alerts resulting in improved zero-day threat protection; Improved Security Incident and Event Management system resulting in better threat visibility, thus increasing the likelihood of detecting a serious event; Improved malware detection and zero-day threat response capability; Improved ability to systematically evaluate and secure in house and vendor sourced software applications; Improved ability to continuously monitor and maintain secure configuration of network devices resulting in reduced vulnerabilities for potential exploitation; Improved overall cyber security situational awareness through the integration of multiple discrete security technologies into a single cyber security reporting console; Improved ability to maintain the resiliency of critical systems in the face of a targeted cyber attack of other significant event; Improved ability to model complex networks for penetration testing and advanced training of cyber security personnel

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The organic redox transistor for neuromorphic computing

Inspired by the in-memory computing architectures of biological systems, neuromorphic computing using crossbar arrays of artificial synapses based on non-volatile memory (NVM) devices with variable conductances has emerged as a new paradigm to enable massively parallel and ultra-low power computing hardware for data centric applications. Although inference has been demonstrated successfully using crossbars based on a variety of NMV technologies, efficient learning and scaling to large arrays (>10 6 elements) remains a challenge due to the synaptic elements' non-ideal electrical characteristics which degrades ANN accuracy. A further challenge is that in the conductive state memristors draw large currents >μA resulting in significant voltage drops in the interconnect wires and increased probability of failure in scaled arrays. We suggest the organic polymer redox transistor (RT) is an alternate approach that could solve many of these challenges, enabling both inference and parallel outer product updates, as recently demonstrated by Fuller et al. An RT consists of redox-active channel and gate electrodes in contact with a liquid or solid electrolyte. lon insertion through the electrolyte controls the channel electronic conductivity, while electron transfer through an external circuit maintains overall charge neutrality. Unlike a rechargeable battery, in the RT the voltage built-up across the electrolyte is kept to a minimum (typically <100 mV) by using the same material for the gate and channel. Elimination of the voltage offset simplifies integration of the RT into programmable arrays by enabling the use of various selectors. RTs based on inorganic and organic materials have been recently demonstrated with conductance tuning occurring at potentials of just a few mV and hundreds to thousands of linearly and symmetrically programmable conductance states, enabling near ideal accuracy in neural network simulations. Introduced in the 1980's, redox transistors with metallic gate electrodes and organic channel materials, also known as organic electrochemical transistors (OECTs), have been explored for a variety of applications such as chem- and bio-sensing, neural interfaces, and low cost printed circuits. A typical channel material for OECTs is the conducting polymer poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) doped with poly(styrene sulfonate) (PEDOT:PSS). PEDOT is a p-type semiconducting polymer with mobile positively charged polarons that hop chain-to-chain.

Talin, Albert Alec↗

Advanced Research Directions on AI for Science, Energy, and Security: Report on Summer 2022 Workshops

Over the past decade, fundamental changes in artificial intelligence (AI)—from foundational to applied—have delivered dramatic insights across a wide breadth of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) mission space. AI is helping to augment and improve scientific and engineering workflows (e.g., for control, design, and dramatic performance gains through surrogate models) in national security, the Office of Science, and DOE’s applied energy programs. The progress and potential for AI in DOE science was captured in the 2020 “AI for Science” report from the DOE laboratory community in collaboration with academia and industry. Specific scientific areas ready to further leverage the power of AI ranged from the scale and performance of computational models to data analysis to creating new classes of observations using computer vision. Since that report, the scale and scope of scientific AI have accelerated, revealing new, emergent properties that yield insights that go beyond enabling opportunities to being potentially transformative in the way that scientific problems are posed and solved. Thus, under the guidance of both the Office of Science (SC) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the DOE national laboratories organized a series of workshops in 2022 to gather input on new and rapidly emerging opportunities and challenges of scientific AI. This 2023 report is a synthesis of those workshops. The scientific community believes AI can have a foundational impact on a broad range of DOE missions, including science, energy, and national security. Further, DOE has unique capabilities that enable the community to drive progress in scientific use of AI, building on long-standing DOE strengths and investments in computation, data, and communications infrastructure, spanning the Energy Sciences Network (ESnet), the Exascale Computing Project (ECP), and integrative programs such as the NNSA Office of Defense Programs Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) and the SC Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) programs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Extension and Validation of NEMA-Style Dual-Ring Controller in SUMO

Until recently, SUMO users could not model the behavior of a ring-and-barrier traffic signal via existing signal types, which left North American SUMO users without the direct ability to capture traffic dynamics of their local networks. This work presents the methods, implementation overview, and validation of a 'dual-ring' NEMA style traffic controller which has recently been added to the main SUMO code base. A brief explanation of the 'dual-ring' implementation is also provided as context for those new to this type of traffic controller. The foundation for this work was presented at the SUMO User Conference 2021 by researchers at the US Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory, but was not integrated into SUMO code base at the time. Following the initial inclusion of the controller to SUMO, the authors began validation of the SUMO controller against an Econolite software-in-the-loop (SIL) traffic signal controller configured with actual setup parameters from controllers in a real-world three-intersection corridor in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA. This paper documents the process of adding new features to the controller code as well as validating their implementation through simulation-based and automated grey-box testing is presented in this paper. Key features such as fully-actuated operation, various timing offset plans, proper next-phase fit algorithms and more, have been added and validated against this SIL system. Though not an exhaustive demonstration of features, this work is intended make more users aware of this extension of SUMO capabilities.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Connected Traffic Signal Coordination Optimization Framework through Network-Wide Adaptive Linear Quadratic Regulator–Based Control Strategy

Traffic congestion in metropolitan areas causes several significant challenges, such as longer travel times, decreased productivity, increased fuel consumption and vehicle emissions, and even severe injuries during crashes. Traffic signal control is a management approach to reduce traffic congestion and allocate the appropriate right of way for safety and mobility efficiency, both in temporal and spatial domains. Here, this study proposes a network-wide adaptive signal control coordination optimization framework based on the linear quadratic regulator algorithm. The traffic flow conditions driven by signal control inputs are formulated based on their network-wide state-space representation. After modeling traffic control regulation constraints, an adaptive linear quadratic regulator algorithm is designed to maximize the network-wide total throughput under the current conditions. Optimal signal control split time durations for multiple intersections in the network are derived by solving the algebraic Riccati equation. Furthermore, the recursive least square parameter estimation method is employed to quantify dynamic traffic condition changes. To verify the effectiveness of this proposed signal control framework, both simulation and real-world experimental tests are conducted for multiple intersections in downtown Chattanooga, Tennessee, United States. In preparation for real-world experimental tests, pipelines for real-time data processing implementation and historical traffic flow data analysis are conducted. The test results demonstrate that the proposed control framework achieves a decrease in travel time by up to 19.4%, total time spent (TTS) by up to 11.9%, and relative queue balance (RQB) by up to 15.6%. The research findings indicate that the proposed signal control framework can be generalized to handle large scale signal control optimization network-wide.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimized V1G and V2G Electric Vehicle Fleet Management and Grid Transaction at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego, CA

The overall technical goal of the project was to demonstrate an all-electric bi-directional non-tactical fleet at Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Miramar that was integrated and controlled with other distributed energy resources (DERs) (i.e., PV, stationary battery, and building loads) to provide resilience to critical electric loads in the event of grid outages, to minimize charging costs, and to provide economic energy resources to electricity markets. In this project, the specific, technical objectives were: 1. Demonstrate that bi-directional electric vehicles can provide critical complementary services to fixed storage batteries in microgrid applications while performing function as non-tactical vehicles. 2. Demonstrate participation of bi-directional (V2G) and unidirectional (V1G) PEVs for demand management and minimization of charging costs. 3. Demonstrate integration of multiple DERs for grid service participation. US Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Miramar in San Diego was the site of this electric vehicle-to-microgrid-utility grid test and demonstration project. Existing microgrid assets in this study included (1) a public works building; (2) a 30-kW rooftop photovoltaic (PV) system and (3) a separate 250 kW carport PV system. In this project, six bi-directional V2G vans were located at the MCAS Miramar’s showcase building-scale microgrid to develop and test technical capabilities that V2G can provide in microgrid applications (e.g., cost reduction and resiliency). These resources provided aggregated demand management and simulated participation in current retail DR programs. The vehicles used in this demonstration were selected because they provided functionality that MCAS Miramar needed, 15 passenger transport and facilities work cargo carrying capacity, and bi-directional charging capability that the research project required. All vehicles in this study were manufactured and distributed by VIA Motors, Inc. There were six vehicles total and each was VIA’s VTRUX eREV V2G model, a modified General Motors Chevrolet 2500 2WD van. Three of the vans were configured as passenger vans and the other three were configured as cargo vans. Each van had an on-board bi-direcrtional inverter/charger, Bel Power Solutions model 350INVCHGT150-120-240-8G nominally rated at +/-15 kW. The VIA van’s charging connector follows the J1772 charging protocol. The bi-directional EVSEs demonstrated in this study were manufactured by Coritech, Inc. Each VGI-80-AC charging station enabled enhanced V2G charging capability to a Clipper Creek CS-100 charging module. The enhanced capabilities included ethernet communication following the SEP2.0 protocol with a distributed energy resource function set and an operator screen displaying real-time SOC, voltage, and current. The VGI-80-AC charging stations are classified as level 2 with a maximum current output of 80 A or effectively 19 kW. The VIA van’s onboard charger limited the charging and discharging power to 15 kW in each direction. A control computer was installed in the EWOC and connected to an existing monitor. The V2G control communication network was a completely stand-alone closed system that did not have any connection to any other networks on the base. A cybersecure remote communication connection was created with a cellular modem, firewall hardware, and a virtual private network configuration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

MFNets: Multifidelity data-driven networks for Bayesian learning and prediction

This paper presents a multifidelity uncertainty quantification framework called MFNets. We seek to address three existing challenges that arise when experimental and simulation data from different sources are used to enhance statistical estimation and prediction with quantified uncertainty. Specifically, we demonstrate that MFNets can (1) fuse heterogeneous data sources arising from simulations with different parameterizations, e.g simulation models with different uncertain parameters or data sets collected under different environmental conditions; (2) encode known relationships among data sources to reduce data requirements; and (3) improve the robustness of existing multi-fidelity approaches to corrupted data. MFNets construct a network of latent variables (LVs) to facilitate the fusion of data from an ensemble of sources of varying credibility and cost. These LVs are posited as explanatory variables that provide the source of correlation in the observed data. Furthermore, MFNets provide a way to encode prior physical knowledge to enable efficient estimation of statistics and/or construction of surrogates via conditional independence relations on the LVs. We highlight the utility of our framework with a number of theoretical results which assess the quality of the posterior mean as a frequentist estimator and compare it to standard sampling approaches that use single fidelity, multilevel, and control variate Monte Carlo estimators. We also use the proposed framework to derive the Monte Carlo-based control variate estimator entirely from the use of Bayes rule and linear-Gaussian models -- to our knowledge the first such derivation. Finally, we demonstrate the ability to work with different uncertain parameters across different models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multitask Machine Learning of Collective Variables for Enhanced Sampling of Rare Events

Computing accurate reaction rates is a central challenge in computational chemistry and biology because of the high cost of free energy estimation with unbiased molecular dynamics. In this work, a data-driven machine learning algorithm is devised to learn collective variables with a multitask neural network, where a common upstream part reduces the high dimensionality of atomic configurations to a low dimensional latent space and separate downstream parts map the latent space to predictions of basin class labels and potential energies. Here, the resulting latent space is shown to be an effective low-dimensional representation, capturing the reaction progress and guiding effective umbrella sampling to obtain accurate free energy landscapes. This approach is successfully applied to model systems including a 5D Müller Brown model, a 5D three-well model, the alanine dipeptide in vacuum, and an Au(110) surface reconstruction unit reaction. It enables automated dimensionality reduction for energy controlled reactions in complex systems, offers a unified and data-efficient framework that can be trained with limited data, and outperforms single-task learning approaches, including autoencoders.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA Tech Briefs, August 2012

Topics covered include: Mars Science Laboratory Drill; Ultra-Compact Motor Controller; A Reversible Thermally Driven Pump for Use in a Sub-Kelvin Magnetic Refrigerator; Shape Memory Composite Hybrid Hinge; Binding Causes of Printed Wiring Assemblies with Card-Loks; Coring Sample Acquisition Tool; Joining and Assembly of Bulk Metallic Glass Composites Through Capacitive Discharge; 670-GHz Schottky Diode-Based Subharmonic Mixer with CPW Circuits and 70-GHz IF; Self-Nulling Lock-in Detection Electronics for Capacitance Probe Electrometer; Discontinuous Mode Power Supply; Optimal Dynamic Sub-Threshold Technique for Extreme Low Power Consumption for VLSI; Hardware for Accelerating N-Modular Redundant Systems for High-Reliability Computing; Blocking Filters with Enhanced Throughput for X-Ray Microcalorimetry; High-Thermal-Conductivity Fabrics; Imidazolium-Based Polymeric Materials as Alkaline Anion-Exchange Fuel Cell Membranes; Electrospun Nanofiber Coating of Fiber Materials: A Composite Toughening Approach; Experimental Modeling of Sterilization Effects for Atmospheric Entry Heating on Microorganisms; Saliva Preservative for Diagnostic Purposes; Hands-Free Transcranial Color Doppler Probe; Aerosol and Surface Parameter Retrievals for a Multi-Angle, Multiband Spectrometer LogScope; TraceContract; AIRS Maps from Space Processing Software; POSTMAN: Point of Sail Tacking for Maritime Autonomous Navigation; Space Operations Learning Center; OVERSMART Reporting Tool for Flow Computations Over Large Grid Systems; Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of Particle-Laden Temporal Mixing Layers; Projection of Stabilized Aerial Imagery Onto Digital Elevation Maps for Geo-Rectified and Jitter-Free Viewing; Iterative Transform Phase Diversity: An Image-Based Object and Wavefront Recovery; 3D Drop Size Distribution Extrapolation Algorithm Using a Single Disdrometer; Social Networking Adapted for Distributed Scientific Collaboration; General Methodology for Designing Spacecraft Trajectories; Hemispherical Field-of-View Above-Water Surface Imager for Submarines; and Quantum-Well Infrared Photodetector (QWIP) Focal Plane Assembly.

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Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks

Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here in this paper we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially) sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in “sloppy” systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of parameters over the number of the sensitive parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Economical and Engineering Aspects of Proactive Demand Participation: Centralized versus Bilateral Control Structure

The electric grid of the U.S. is evolving from a system characterized by large and centralized fossil-fueled power plants and passive customers to a network with high penetration of distributed energy resources and proactive customers. This project facilitated the evolution of the U.S. electric power grid by enabling proactive participation of demands in electricity market at the power distribution system level. This project has three major achievements. First, we designed a centralized distribution system operator managed electricity market and developed a three-phase alternating current optimal power flow algorithm to coordinate the operation of large-scale flexible loads and distributed energy resources. Second, we designed a decentralized bilateral coordinate framework for retail electricity market, where each participating customer is capable of making decisions regarding energy production and consumption based on information received from transactive neighbors. Third, the impacts of centralized and decentralized demand-side participation scheme on power system operations were evaluated with both large-scale simulations and hardware-in-the-loop demonstrations. The major activities and specific accomplishments of the technical tasks are summarized in Section II. The detailed design of centralized/hierarchical and decentralized/bilateral retail electricity markets and the comparison between the two markets are described in Section III. The accomplishments and conclusions of the project are presented in Section IV. The major findings of the project falls into three areas, hierarchical distribution system operator managed electricity market, bilateral electricity market and decentralized market coordination, and comparison of centralized and decentralized market coordination mechanisms. In the area of hierarchical distribution system operator managed electricity market design, an integrated wholesale and retail electricity market was shown to be highly effective in extracting the operational flexibility from distributed energy resources to provide services to the wholesale market. A chordal conversion based convex iteration algorithm is not only computationally efficiency but also achieves global optimal solution in coordinating the operations of a large number of heterogeneous distributed energy resources.In the area of decentralized market coordination approach, we showed that bilateral transactions among proactive customers and decentralized transaction clearing mechanism based on simultaneous second-price sealed-bid auction can encourage truthful bidding strategies from the market participations. In addition, the individual customers can rely on a portfolio optimization approach to maximize their returns while minimizing risks. In the area of comparison of centralized and decentralized market coordination mechanisms, we found that the centralized market design results in higher social welfare and lower wholesale market clearing price for electricity. In general, centralized market design favors distributed energy resources and fixed loads. The decentralized market design mostly benefits flexible loads and conventional generators.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗