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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1995

Statistical studies of impulsive events at high latitudes

A statistical study has been made of the high-latitude impulsive events that were observed during the 1985-1986 South Pole Balloon Campaign. The events were selected by searching for unipolar pulses greater than or equal to 10 nT above background in the vertical component of the magnetic field on the ground and/or pedestal or 'W' shaped horizontal electric field perturbations greater than or equal to 10 mV/m in amplitude and accompanied by perturbations in the vertical electric field at balloon altitude. A main event list comprising 112 events was compiled from the 468 hours of data available. Three aspects of the events were examined: the solar wind conditions prior to the event, local time of observation, and intrinsic properties of the events. The local time distribution was obtained from the 112 entry main event list and was found to be nearly uniform across the dayside, with no midday gap. The event rate found using our low-amplitude selection criteria was 0.7 event/hr, comparable to expectations based on in situ studies of the magnetopause. A total of 42 events were found for which data were available from Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP) 8. Of these events, 12 occurred when the Z(sub GSM) component (B(sub Z)) of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was northward and 30 occurred when B(sub Z) was southward or fluctuating. Only three of the B(sub Z) northward cases and only five of the B(sub Z) southward cases were preceded by pressure pulses greater than 0.4 nPa in amplitude. Ten of the events were studied in detail by means of a model-fitting method discussed elsewhere. This method infers values of several parameters, including the total current flowing in a coaxial or monopole system and a two-dimensional dipole system. The intrinsic properties of the events showed that only approximately 10% of the total current contributed to momentum transfer to the high-latitude ionosphere, that the direction of the motion depended more on local time of observation than IMF B(sub y), and that events were usually several hundred kilometers in size. The observed B(sub z) control found in the 42 event list and the prevalence of coaxial current dominated events are inconsistent with the predictions of the pressure pulse model.

Lin, Z. M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Upstreamness and downstreamness in input–output analysis from local and aggregate information

Abstract Ranking sectors and countries within global value chains is of paramount importance to estimate risks and forecast growth in large economies. However, this task is often non-trivial due to the lack of complete and accurate information on the flows of money and goods between sectors and countries, which are encoded in input–output (I–O) tables. In this work, we show that an accurate estimation of the role played by sectors and countries in supply chain networks can be achieved without full knowledge of the I–O tables, but only relying on local and aggregate information, e.g., the total intermediate demand per sector. Our method, based on a rank-1 approximation to the I–O table, shows consistently good performance in reconstructing rankings (i.e., upstreamness and downstreamness measures for countries and sectors) when tested on empirical data from the world input–output database. Moreover, we connect the accuracy of our approximate framework with the spectral properties of the I–O tables, which ordinarily exhibit relatively large spectral gaps. Our approach provides a fast and analytically tractable framework to rank constituents of a complex economy without the need of matrix inversions and the knowledge of finer intersectorial details.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2004

Interaction of a Boundary Layer with a Turbulent Wake

The objective of this grant was to study the transition mechanisms on a flat-plate boundary layer interacting with the wake of a bluff body. This is a simplified configuration presented and designed to exemplify the phenomena that occur in multi-element airfoils, in which the wake of an upstream element impinges on a downstream one. Some experimental data is available for this configuration at various Reynolds numbers. The first task carried out was the implementation and validation of the immersed-boundary method. This was achieved by performing calculations of the flow over a cylinder at low and moderate Reynolds numbers. The low-Reynolds number results are discussed, which is enclosed as Appendix A. The high-Reynolds number results are presented in a paper in preparation for the Journal of Fluid Mechanics. We performed calculations of the wake-boundary-layer interaction at two Reynolds numbers, Re approximately equal to 385 and 1155. The first case is discussed and a comparison of the two calculations is reported. The simulations indicate that at the lower Reynolds number the boundary layer is buffeted by the unsteady Karman vortex street shed by the cylinder. This is shown: long streaky structures appear in the boundary layer in correspondence of the three-dimensionalities in the rollers. The fluctuations, however, cannot be self-sustained due to the low Reynolds-number, and the flow does not reach a turbulent state within the computational domain. In contrast, in the higher Reynolds-number case, boundary-layer fluctuations persist after the wake has decayed (due, in part, to the higher values of the local Reynolds number Re achieved in this case); some evidence could be observed that a self-sustaining turbulence generation cycle was beginning to be established. A third simulation was subsequently carried out at a higher Reynolds number, Re=3900. This calculation gave results similar to those of the Re=l155 case. Turbulence was established at fairly low Reynolds number, as a consequence of the high level of the free-stream perturbation. An instantaneous flow visualization for that case is shown. A detailed examination of flow statistics in the transitional and turbulent regions, including the evolution of the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget and frequency spectra showed the formation and evolution of turbulent spots characteristic of the bypass transition mechanism. It was also observed that the turbulent eddies achieved an equilibrium, fully developed turbulent states first, as evidenced by the early agreement achieved by the terms in the TKE budget with those observed in turbulent flows. Once a turbulent Reynolds stress profile had been established, the velocity profile began to resemble a turbulent one, first in the inner region and later in the outer region of the wall layer. An extensive comparison of the three cases, including budgets, mean velocity and Reynolds stress profiles and flow visualization, is included. The results obtained are also presented.

Piomelli, Ugo↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Effects of the Uncertainty of Departures on Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) Scheduling

The Multi-center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) provides a platform for regional or national traffic flow management, by allowing long-range cooperative time-based metering to constrained resources, such as airports or air traffic control center boundaries. Part of the demand for resources is made up of proposed departures, whose actual departure time is difficult to predict. For this reason, McTMA does not schedule the departures in advance, but rather relies on traffic managers to input their requested departure time. Because this happens only a short while before the aircraft's actual departure, McTMA is unable to accurately predict the amount of delay airborne aircraft will need to take in order to accommodate the departures. The proportion of demand which is made up by such proposed departures increases as the horizon over which metering occurs gets larger. This study provides an initial analysis of the severity of this problem in a 400-500 nautical mile metering horizon and discusses potential solutions to accommodate these departures. The challenge is to smoothly incorporate departures with the airborne stream while not excessively delaying the departures.' In particular, three solutions are reviewed: (1) scheduling the departures at their proposed departure time; (2) not scheduling the departures in advance; and (3) scheduling the departures at some time in the future based on an estimated error in their proposed time. The first solution is to have McTMA to automatically schedule the departures at their proposed departure times. Since the proposed departure times are indicated in their flight times in advance, this method is the simplest, but studies have shown that these proposed times are often incorrect2 The second option is the current practice, which avoids these inaccuracies by only scheduling aircraft when a confirmed prediction of departure time is obtained from the tower of the departure airport. Lastly, McTMA can schedule the departures at a predicted departure time based on statistical data of past departure time performance. It has been found that departures usually have a wheels-up time after their indicated proposed departure time, as shown in Figure 1. Hence, the departures were scheduled at a time in the future based on the mean error in proposed departure times for their airport.

Thipphavong, Jane↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Spectral and Statistical Properties of Turbulence Generated by a Vortex/Blade-Tip Interaction

The perpendicular interaction of a streamwise vortex with the tip of a lifting blade was studied in incompressible flow to provide information useful to the accurate prediction of helicopter rotor noise and the understanding of vortex dominated turbulent flows. The vortex passed 0.3 chord lengths to the suction side of the blade tip, providing a weak interaction. Single and two-point turbulence measurements were made using sub-miniature four sensor hot-wire probes 15 chord lengths downstream of the blade trailing edge; revealing the mean velocity and Reynolds stress tensor distributions of the turbulence, as well as its spanwise length scales as a function of frequency. The single point measurements show the flow downstream of the blade to be dominated by the interaction of the original tip vortex and the vortex shed by the blade. These vortices rotate about each other under their mutual induction, winding up the turbulent wakes of the blades. This interaction between the vortices appears to be the source of new turbulence in their cores and in the region between them. This turbulence appears to be responsible for some decay in the core of the original vortex, not seen when the blade is removed. The region between the vortices is not only a region of comparatively large stresses, but also one of intense turbulence production. Velocity autospectra measured near its center suggests the presence quasi-periodic large eddies with axes roughly parallel to a line joining the vortex cores. Detailed two-point measurements were made on a series of spanwise cuts through the flow so as to reveal the turbulence scales as they would be seen along the span of an intersecting airfoil. The measurements were made over a range of probe separations that enabled them to be analyzed not only in terms of coherence and phase spectra but also in terms of wave-number frequency (kappa-omega) spectra, computed by transforming the measured cross-spectra with respect to the spanwise separation of the probes. These data clearly show the influence of the coherent eddies in the spiral wake and the turbulent region between the cores. These eddies produce distinct peaks in the upwash velocity kappa-omega spectra, and strong anisotropy manifested both in the decay of the kappa-omega spectrum at larger wave-numbers and in differences between the kappa-omega spectra of different components. None of these features are represented in the von Karman spectrum for isotropic turbulence that is often used in broadband noise computations. Wave-number frequency spectra measured in the cores appear to show some evidence that the turbulence outside sets tip core waves, as has previously been hypothesized. These spectra also provide for the first time a truly objective method for distinguishing velocity fluctuations produced by core wandering from other motions.

Devenport, William J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spectral distortions to momentum and scalar exchanges by non-turbulent motion and patchy landscape variability

Modifications to the spectra of turbulent velocity and scalars and co-spectra of vertical fluxes of momentum and scalars due to patchy landscape heterogeneity and non-stationarity are explored for a Mediterranean ecosystem. About 9 months of high frequency measurements of the three velocity components, water vapor concentration, carbon dioxide concentration, and air temperature were analyzed for different seasons (spring/summer) and prevalent wind directions (southeast/northwest). The two wind directions sampled a contrast of clumped and patchy landscape comprised of olive trees (southeast) and wall bounded flow disturbed by the presence of few upwind trees (northwest). The measured spectra and co-spectra were also compared to theoretical scaling forms from stationary, planar homogeneous flow, in the absence of subsidence as derived from the Kansas experiment. To assess the role of low frequency non-turbulent motion on the spectral and co-spectral content, a 5-min Fourier cutoff was introduced and the analysis was limited to near-neutral conditions where the boundary layer depth is shallow compared to its unstable counterpart. It was shown that the velocity statistics were not appreciably impacted by the low-frequency motion causing non-stationarity. Moreover, the turbulent scalar fluxes were also shown not to be significantly impacted by such low frequency motion. The scalar variances were impacted, especially the water vapor variance and its concomitant spectral shape. When the non-turbulent motion was filtered, the scalar spectra at low wavenumbers followed expectations from the so-called attached eddy hypothesis (i.e. exhibited a $k^{-1}_x$ scaling with $k_x$ defining the longitudinal wavenumber) applicable for near-neutral conditions. For momentum co-spectra, the canonical shapes from the Kansas experiment appear to describe well the measurements here and in both dominant directions and seasons with some adjustment to the integral time scales based on wind direction. For the scalar co-spectra, deviations from the Kansas experiment were prevalent. The most noticeable and surprising deviations were their slow decay with increased sampling frequency at inertial subrange scales. This slow decay was shown not to contribute appreciably to the overall scalar fluxes. At those fine scales, predictions from local isotropy were expected to hold. The scalar co-spectral deviations from local isotropy were then discussed using a simplified co-spectral budget model where scalar–scalar co-spectra naturally emerged and the interplay between landscape heterogeneity and a scale-dependent pressure-scalar de-correlation time was postulated. It is also envisaged that the findings here offer a preliminary template for analyzing eddy-covariance data in situations that deviate from ideal conditions, especially regarding low-frequency modulations of scalar spectra and vertical scalar flux co-spectra.

Canopy turbulence↗
NASA NTRS2002

Containerless Ripple Turbulence

One of the longest standing unsolved problems in physics relates to the behavior of fluids that are driven far from equilibrium such as occurs when they become turbulent due to fast flow through a grid or tidal motions. In turbulent flows the distribution of vortex energy as a function of the inverse length scale [or wavenumber 'k'] of motion is proportional to 1/k(sup 5/3) which is the celebrated law of Kolmogorov. Although this law gives a good description of the average motion, fluctuations around the average are huge. This stands in contrast with thermally activated motion where large fluctuations around thermal equilibrium are highly unfavorable. The problem of turbulence is the problem of understanding why large fluctuations are so prevalent which is also called the problem of 'intermittency'. Turbulence is a remarkable problem in that its solution sits simultaneously at the forefront of physics, mathematics, engineering and computer science. A recent conference [March 2002] on 'Statistical Hydrodynamics' organized by the Los Alamos Laboratory Center for Nonlinear Studies brought together researchers in all of these fields. Although turbulence is generally thought to be described by the Navier-Stokes Equations of fluid mechanics the solution as well as its existence has eluded researchers for over 100 years. In fact proof of the existence of such a solution qualifies for a 1 M$ millennium prize. As part of our NASA funded research we have proposed building a bridge between vortex turbulence and wave turbulence. The latter occurs when high amplitude waves of various wavelengths are allowed to mutually interact in a fluid. In particular we have proposed measuring the interaction of ripples [capillary waves] that run around on the surface of a fluid sphere suspended in a microgravity environment. The problem of ripple turbulence poses similar mathematical challenges to the problem of vortex turbulence. The waves can have a high amplitude and a strong nonlinear interaction. Furthermore, the steady state distribution of energy again follows a Kolmogorov scaling law; in this case the ripple energy is distributed according to 1/k (sup 7/4). Again, in parallel with vortex turbulence ripple turbulence exhibits intermittency. The problem of ripple turbulence presents an experimental opportunity to generate data in a controlled, benchmarked system. In particular the surface of a sphere is an ideal environment to study ripple turbulence. Waves run around the sphere and interact with each other, and the effect of walls is eliminated. In microgravity this state can be realized for over 2 decades of frequency. Wave turbulence is a physically relevant problem in its own right. It has been studied on the surface of liquid hydrogen and its application to Alfven waves in space is a source of debate. Of course, application of wave turbulence perspectives to ocean waves has been a major success. The experiment which we plan to run in microgravity is conceptually straightforward. Ripples are excited on the surface of a spherical drop of fluid and then their amplitude is recorded with appropriate photography. A key challenge is posed by the need to stably position a 10cm diameter sphere of water in microgravity. Two methods are being developed. Orbitec is using controlled puffs of air from at least 6 independent directions to provided the positioning force. This approach has actually succeeded to position and stabilize a 4cm sphere during a KC 135 segment. Guigne International is using the radiation pressure of high frequency sound. These transducers have been organized into a device in the shape of a dodecahedron. This apparatus 'SPACE DRUMS' has already been approved for use for combustion synthesis experiments on the International Space Station. A key opportunity presented by the ripple turbulence data is its use in driving the development of codes to simulate its properties.

Putterman, Seth↗
DOE OSTI2025

Concentration-Discharge Relationships in the Six Largest Arctic Rivers, 2003-2019

This dataset provides the results of the analysis of the relationship of dissolved analyte concentrations and river discharges in the six largest Arctic rivers across the global panarctic region (see Figure 1 in documentation file *.pdf). Long-term measurements of dissolved analyte concentrations and river discharge have been collected for each of the Kolyma, Lena, Mackenzie, Ob, Yenisey, and Yukon rivers by the Arctic Great Rivers Observatory (ArcticGRO) project from ~2003-present (Shiklomanov, 2021). The relationship of dissolved analyte concentrations and discharges in each river was characterized by statistical analysis of the slope of the log(concentration) vs log(discharge) (b), the coefficient of variation ratio (CVc/CVq), the 2.5% and 97.5% confidence intervals of b, and assigning a chemostatic, flushing, diluting, or non-systematic behavior category according to Koger (2018). The summary of these analyses for all six rivers is provided in one .csv file. The concentrations of 20 dissolved analytes and discharge measurement data for the individual Kolyma, Lena, Mackenzie, Ob, Yenisey, and Yukon rivers are also provided with this dataset. There are seven *.csv files; one for each river plus the statistical summary. These public ArcticGRO data at "https://www.arcticgreatrivers.org" (Shiklomanov, 2021) were downloaded on Feb 13, 2020, but each river has different measurement dates over the sampling and analysis period. The ArcticGRO metadata document (*.pdf) downloaded on Feb 13, 2020 is also included in this dataset. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Assessment of climate variability of the Greenland ice sheet: Integration of in situ and satellite data

The proposed research involves the application of multispectral satellite data in combination with ground truth measurements to monitor surface properties of the Greenland ice sheet which are essential for describing the energy and mass of the ice sheet. Several key components of the energy balance are parameterized using satellite data and in situ measurements. The analysis will be done for a ten year time period in order to get statistics on the seasonal and interannual variations of the surface processes and the climatology. Our goal is to investigate to what accuracy and over what geographic areas large scale snow properties and radiative fluxes can be derived based upon a combination of available remote sensing and meterological data sets. Data analysis showed the following results: (1)cloud classification based on longwave sky radiation revealed that overcast sky occurred for 25% of the time in winter, and for 15% in spring and summer respectively (winter and summer both show the same occurrence of clear sky of approximately 26%); (2) comparison of aerodynamic profile method with eddy correlation method to derive sensible and latent heat flux showed good agreement in the diurnal cycle and the turbulent fluxes were underestimated with the aerodynamic method by 10 - 30% as compared to the in situ eddy flux method; (3) the katabatic wind shows a distinct diurnal cycle with a maximum in the morning (7-9 h solar time) and a minimum in the later afternoon (18 h solar time); (4) snow grain size was modeled with a surface energy balance model (SNTHERM) and compared with in situ measurements. Sharp decreases in the modeled snow grain size, caused by accumulation events such as precipitation and deposition, could be verified with observational data; (4) radiative transfer modeling of firn supports our beliefs that the observed trends in 18 and 19 GHz passive microwave brightness temperatures are attributable to accumulation rate changes (modeling also indicates the above relationship is detectable because of the presence of depth hoar; (5) snow melt can be detected by a distinct signal in the passive microwave cross-polarized gradient ratio (19h-37v)/(19h+37v) and has been used for wet/dry snow classification; (6) top of the atmosphere (TOA) broadband albedos were derived from AVHRR visible and near infrared reflectances for the entire ice sheet from May 1990 - June 1991, and the highest albedo values are found along the southeast coast of the ice sheet which is consistent with the summer peak of precipitation due to onshore flow loaded with high water vapor content (TOA albedo values dropped to around 40% along the south-western coast during July and August due to bare ice surfaces); and (7) the net all-wave radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere is negative over the entire ice sheet except for the summer months - June-July-August (in June, the net radiation balance is slightly positive over the dry snow areas--15 W/m2).

Steffen, K.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The NASA Low-Pressure Turbine Flow Physics Program

An overview of the NASA Lewis Low-Pressure Turbine (LPT) Flow Physics Program will be presented. The program was established in response to the aero-engine industry's need for improved LPT efficiency and designs. Modern jet engines have four to seven LPT stages, significantly contributing to engine weight. In addition, there is a significant efficiency degradation between takeoff and cruise conditions, of up to 2 points. Reducing the weight and part count of the LPT and minimizing the efficiency degradation will translate into fuel savings. Accurate prediction methods of LPT flows and losses are needed to accomplish those improvements. The flow in LPT passages is at low Reynolds number, and is dominated by interplay of three basic mechanisms: transition, separation and wake interaction. The affecting parameters traditionally considered are Reynolds number, freestream turbulence intensity, wake frequency parameter, and the pressure distribution (loading). Three-dimensional effects and additional parameters, particularly turbulence characteristics like length scales, spectra and other statistics, as well as wake turbulence intensity and properties also play a role. The flow of most interest is on the suction surface, where large losses are generated as the flow tends to separate at the low Reynolds numbers. Ignoring wakes, a common flow scenario, there is laminar separation, followed by transition on the separation bubble and turbulent reattachment. If transition starts earlier the separation will be eliminated and the boundary layer will be attached leading to the well known bypass transition issues. In contrast, transition over a separation bubble is closer to free shear layer transition and was not investigated as well, particularly in the turbine environment. Unsteadiness created by wakes complicates the picture. Wakes induce earlier transition, and the calmed regions trailing the induced turbulent spots can delay or eliminate separation via shear stress modification. Three-dimensional flow physics and geometry will have strong effects. Altogether a very complex and challenging problem emerges. The objective of the program is to provide improved models and physical understanding of the complex flow, which are essential for accurate prediction of flow and losses in the LPT. Experimental, computational and analytical work as complementing and augmenting approaches are used. The program involves industry, universities and research institutes, and other government laboratories. It is characterized by strong interaction among participants, quick dissemination of results, and responsiveness to industry's needs. The presentation will describe the work elements. Highlighting some activities in progress are experiments on simulated blade suction surface in low-speed wind tunnels, on curved wall, and on a flat-plate, both with pressure gradient. In the area of computation, assessment of existing models is performed using RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes) simulations. Laminar flow DNS was completed. Analytical studies of instability and receptivity in attached and separated flows were started. In the near future the program is moving to include wake effects and development of improved modeling. Experimental work in preparation stages are: (1) Addition of wakes to the curved tunnel experiment; (2) Low-speed rotating rig experiment on GE90 engine LPT; and (3) Transonic cascade. In the area of computation, it is expected to move from model assessment towards development of improved models. In addition, a new project of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of LPT is to begin and will provide numerical data bases. It is planned to implement the emerging improved models in a multistage turbomachinery code and to validate against the GE90 engine LPT.

Ashpis, David E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Renewable Energy at NASA's Johnson Space Center

NASA's Johnson Space Center has implemented a great number of renewable energy systems. Renewable energy systems are necessary to research and implement if we humans are expected to continue to grow and thrive on this planet. These systems generate energy using renewable sources - water, wind, sun - things that we will not run out of. Johnson Space Center is helping to pave the way by installing and studying various renewable energy systems. The objective of this report will be to examine the completed renewable energy projects at NASA's Johnson Space Center for a time span of ten years, beginning in 2003 and ending in early 2014. This report will analyze the success of each project based on actual vs. projected savings and actual vs. projected efficiency. Additionally, both positive and negative experiences are documented so that lessons may be learned from past experiences. NASA is incorporating renewable energy wherever it can, including into buildings. According to the 2012 JSC Annual Sustainability Report, there are 321,660 square feet of green building space on JSC's campus. The two projects discussed here are major contributors to that statistic. These buildings were designed to meet various Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Certification criteria. LEED Certified buildings use 30 to 50 percent less energy and water compared to non-LEED buildings. The objectives of this project were to examine data from the renewable energy systems in two of the green buildings onsite - Building 12 and Building 20. In Building 12, data was examined from the solar photovoltaic arrays. In Building 20, data was examined from the solar water heater system. By examining the data from the two buildings, it could be determined if the renewable energy systems are operating efficiently. Objectives In Building 12, the data from the solar photovoltaic arrays shows that the system is continuously collecting energy from the sun, as shown by the graph below. Building 12 has two solar inverters, located on the second floor, that collected the data from the solar photovoltaic arrays. The data displayed here is the total energy produced by the system. These are cumulative amounts, so the last point on the graph shows all of the energy collected from the system since the start of its operation. The data shown here was manually collected from the solar inverters. However, the data is also automatically recorded through EBI. Through analysis of both sets of data it was determined that the EBI data was faulty. For example, from the manually collected data it can be determined that a total of 73 kWh of energy was collected between the dates of 1/16/2014 – 1/22/2014. The EBI data reports that approximately 17800 kWh of energy was collected during the same time frame. Not only does this exceed the time frame examined, but it also exceeds the total energy collected from the start of collection as recorded from the inverters. This leads to the belief that there is a malfunction with the automatic recording of the energy. In Building 20, data was examined from the solar water heater dating back many months and found that the pump for the solar water heater system was not operating properly, as exhibited in the graph shown below. The pump operates on a solar energy system, meaning that it collects energy throughout the day from the sun. Because of this, the system would stop operating shortly after the sun set because of a lack of sunlight. At that point, the graph should show a zero flow rate, but as exhibited in the graph below, that is not the case. It is clearly shown that the pump is continuously operating, even during the night. It was also observed that the majority of the time the pump would not turn on at all, despite good weather conditions. This led to the conclusion that the pump is malfunctioning, and needs to be examined and fixed.

McDowall, Lindsay↗
NASA NTRS1995

Dynamics and structure of turbulent premixed flames

In earlier work (Mantel & Bilger, 1994) the structure of the turbulent premixed flame was investigated using statistics based on conditional averaging with the reaction progress variable as the conditioning variable. The DNS data base of Trouve and Poinsot (1994) was used in this investigation. Attention was focused on the conditional dissipation and conditional axial velocity in the flame with a view to modeling these quantities for use in the conditional moment closure (CMC) approach to analysis of kinetics in premixed flames (Bilger, 1993). Two remarkable findings were made: there was almost no acceleration of the axial velocity in the flame front itself; and the conditional scalar dissipation remained as high, or higher, than that found in laminar premixed flames. The first finding was surprising since in laminar flames all the fluid acceleration occurs through the flame front, and this could be expected also for turbulent premixed flames at the flamelet limit. The finding gave hope of inventing a new approach to the dynamics of turbulent premixed flames through use of rapid distortion theory or an unsteady Bernoulli equation. This could lead to a new second order closure for turbulent premixed flames. The second finding was contrary to our measurements with laser diagnostics in lean hydrocarbon flames where it is found that conditional scalar dissipation drops dramatically below that for laminar flamelets when the turbulence intensity becomes high. Such behavior was not explainable with a one-step kinetic model, even at non-unity Lewis number. It could be due to depletion of H2 from the reaction zone by preferential diffusion. The capacity of the flame to generate radicals is critically dependent on the levels of H2 present (Bilger, et al., 1991). It seemed that a DNS computation with a multistep reduced mechanism would be worthwhile if a way could be found to make this feasible. Truly innovative approaches to complex problems often come only when there is the opportunity to work close at hand with the (in this case numerical) experimental data. Not only can one spot patterns and relationships in the data which could be important, but one can also get to know the limitations of the technique being used, so that when the next experiment is being designed it will address resolvable questions. A three-year grant from the Australian Research Council has enabled us to develop a small capability at the University of Sydney to work on DNS of turbulent reacting flow, and to analyze data bases generated at CTR. Collaboration between the University of Sydney and CTR is essential to this project and finding a workable modus operandum for this collaboration, given the constraints involved, has been a major objective of the past year's effort. The overall objectives of the project are: (1) to obtain a quantitative understanding of the dynamics of turbulent premixed flames at high turbulence levels with a view to developing improved second order closure models; and (2) to carry out new DNS experiments on turbulent premixed flames using a carefully chosen multistep reduced mechanism for the chemical kinetics, with a view to elucidating the laser diagnostic findings that are contrary to the findings for DNS using one-step kinetics. In this first year the objectives have been to make the existing CTR data base more accessible to coworkers at the University of Sydney, to make progress on understanding the dynamics of the flame in this existing CTR data base, and to carefully construct a suitable multistep reduced mechanism for use in a new set of DNS experiments on turbulent premixed flames.

Bilger, R. W.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural posterior unfolding

Differential cross section measurements are the currency of scientific exchange in particle and nuclear physics. A key challenge for these analyses is the correction for detector distortions, known as deconvolution or unfolding. Binned unfolding of cross section measurements traditionally rely on the regularized inversion of the response matrix that represents the detector response, mapping pre-detector (`particle level') observables to post-detector (`detector level') observables. In this paper we introduce Neural Posterior Unfolding, a modern, Bayesian approach that leverages normalizing flows for unfolding. By using normalizing flows for neural posterior estimation, NPU offers several key advantages including implicit regularization through the neural network architecture, fast amortized inference that eliminates the need for repeated retraining, and direct access to the full uncertainty in the unfolded result. In addition to introducing NPU, we implement a classical Bayesian unfolding method called Fully Bayesian Unfolding (FBU) in modern Python so it can also be studied. These tools are validated on simple Gaussian examples and then tested on simulated jet substructure examples from the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). We find that the Bayesian methods are effective and worth additional development to be analysis ready for cross section measurements at the LHC and beyond.

Analysis and statistical methods↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design and Technology Maturation of the Stratospheric Projectile Experiment of Entry Dynamics

The supersonic and transonic dynamic stability of blunt-body reentry vehicles currently poses large risks in all of NASA’s ongoing entry missions (MSR SRL, MSR EES, and Dragonfly). These projects have allocated millions of dollars to testing and modeling efforts to buy down risk by using the current state-of-the-art (SoA) facilities at NASA’s disposal. While these facilities have heritage in supplying dynamics data to reentry missions, their availability is severely limited – particularly with the high number of concur-rent projects requesting simultaneous testing– and are costly when considering the science density per dollar. None of the current SoA facility methodologies allow the test model to have the dynamics fully develop through a flight relevant free-stream profile and as such require extrapolations with resultant high uncertainties in order to relate the test dynamics to flight expectations. SPEED is a NASA Ames Center Innovation Fund (CIF) project that is developing a highly tailorable and cost-effective test methodology to better assess the dynamic stability of blunt-body reentry vehicles via a stratospheric balloon flight. This is accomplished by dropping a suite of instrumented capsules from a stratospheric balloon to gain a statistically relevant dataset of scaled reentry vehicles in mission relevant free-flight conditions. This presentation will walk through how the test methodology is being implemented specifically for the Mars Sample Return (MSR) Earth Entry System (EES) geometry in an awarded Flight Opportunities Program (FOP) test flight in early CY24. SPEED Application to MSR: SPEED consists of three main mechanical systems: the Drop Platform, the Projectile, and the test Capsule. SPEED is being developed as a set of guidelines and recommendations for how to test with the proposed Concept of Operations (Conops) since the specific design parameters will vary depending on the specific project’s reference trajectory and entry vehicle design. As such, this presentation will walk through the development time-line as shown in Fig. 2. This is meant to serve as a blueprint for further missions as desired. Mechanical and Avionics Design. The SPEED test platform designed for the MSR-EES capsule geometry with nominal entry parameters has the ability to carry 10 Capsules to altitude instrumented with: 1. 3-Axis Accelerometer 2. IMU 3. Gyroscope 4. Magnetometer 5. Pressure Transducer cruciform 6. Uplook and Horizon Cameras To package the avionics/instrumentation suite, the capsule is approximately 1’ in diameter with the Outer Mold Line (OML) centroid-scaled from the full EES design. The internal volume is gutted and custom-shaped to fit the desired instrumentation suite, as well as to allow for the positioning of ballast mass such that the Center of Gravity is analogous to the flight vehicle. All structural components in the Capsule and Projectile are 3D printed, which significantly reduces the cost of each flight unit to around $1500 including all instrumentation, avionics, and structural components. Flight Conops. The test Capsule is accelerated to the desired altitude and Mach number while stowed in the Projectile, a missile-like vehicle consisting of steel ballast in the nose, a low-drag OML, and an Ejection Mechanism to reliably release the Capsule into the free-flow supersonic conditions. For the MSR-EES design, the capsule employs ~3kg of ballast mass at the nose to accelerate the 1.25kg test Capsule to ~Mach 1.7 at 23km altitude. This requires an initial release altitude of 40km, the quoted limit of a 80kg payload by the FOP-contracted balloon provider. Once the Ejection Mechanism avionics detect the proper conditions, the spring-loaded Ejection Mechanism will release and – guided by the sabot – expose the test Capsule to the desired test conditions for ~5 seconds of free-flight in the supersonic/transonic regimes. Dynamics in the subsonic regime will also be captured with the instrumentation suite with post-flight recovery operations aimed at recovering the high-G-load capable SD cards after the planned hard impact landings. Testing and Development: In the few months the SPEED project has worked the development of MSR-EES flight test, the team has performed lab and drone based testing which this presentation will overview. After the first design phase, the team fabricated Engineering Demonstration Units (EDUs) of all subsystems to perform validation testing shown in Fig. 5. After validation was completed on the subsystem level, a drone-drop test was performed at the recreational flight ceiling of 400ft altitude to assess the SPEED systems in a flight environment. Parameters such as in-flight stability, hard impact landing performance, and avionics performance were quantified and qualified. The FY23 CIF will culminate in a helicopter drop test aboard an Air National Guard Blackhawk. This will prepare the team for the CY24 FOP stratospheric balloon flight that should provide the final verification to begin offering the test platform for mission support. Focus of Presentation: This presentation will outline the technology maturation path of the SPEED implementation to the MSR-EES capsule baseline as well as the details regarding the mechanical system, avionics and instrumentation, and flight operations. Note that a complementary presentation is being submitted for a methodology overview of the SPEED test platform, introducing the testing technique and benefits as well as the full application space of the technology.

pitch damping coefficient↗
NASA NTRS2022

Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis

There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.

Uncertainty quantification↗
DOE OSTI2026

Full-polarization millimeter wavelength variability of Sagittarius A * during the 2018 EHT campaign

Context. Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, provides a unique laboratory to study accretion dynamics and plasma processes near the event horizon. Aims. We investigated the variability and polarization properties of Sgr A* using ALMA observations during the 2018 Event Horizon Telescope campaign. Methods. We analyzed high-cadence full-polarization light curves from ALMA at millimeter wavelengths, performed time-series analysis, and investigated the temporal behavior during an X-ray flare observed by Chandra on 2018 April 24. The variability characteristics are compared with expectations from standard accretion flow models. Results. We find low variability in total intensity (σ/μ < 10%), but significantly higher variability in linear and circular polarization (∼30% and ∼50%, respectively). A time-series analysis reveals red-noise variability, with power spectral densities between −2 and −3 across all Stokes parameters. Polarized intensity shows stable intra-day timescales, while total intensity exhibits more variable timescales, suggesting distinct emission regions, with polarization likely arising from a coherent structure. On April 24, a statistically significant inter-band delay in polarized intensity coincides with a near-simultaneous X-ray and millimeter peak that deviates from the typical delayed flare scenario. This event also features enhanced millimeter variability and coherent polarization loop evolution. The observed simultaneity challenges standard models of transient synchrotron emission with cooling delays, favoring instead a scenario of continuous energy injection in an optically thin region. Conclusions. Our results offer new constraints on the physical mechanisms driving variability in Sgr A*, and provide key observational input for refining theoretical models of accretion and plasma behavior in the vicinity of supermassive black holes.

Galaxy: center↗