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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Real Time - Optimal Power Flow Based Distributed Energy Resources Management System (DERMS) (CRADA Number CRD-20-16909 Final Report)

The integration of behind-the-meter distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems brings transformative changes to power systems. This requires operators and planners to find solutions to modernize electric grids and to effectively manage DERs for grid services. NREL developed novel DER management algorithms (referred to as Real-Time Optimal Power Flow, RT-OPF) through U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-funded efforts, including Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) Network Optimized Distributed Energy Systems (NODES) funding. This cutting-edge control technology aims to modernize distribution systems with large amounts of DER integration, which will help utilities solve issues brought by renewable integration and build resilient and renewable-based electric grids nationwide. Utilidata worked with NREL to investigate the commercialization opportunity of this RT-OPF-based distributed energy resource management system (DERMS). In this project, NREL performs the technology transfer of the RT-OPF to Utilidata to help them fully understand the RT-OPF solution, to identify potential engineering hurdles, and to assess the expected commercial value of various RT-OPF use cases and deployment. The technology transfer work includes two major tasks. First, NREL performs an in-depth knowledge transfer of the entire RT-OPF solution to Utilidata to help them gain an extensive and detailed understanding of the complete RT-OPF solution. In this task, NREL provides exhaustive information (e.g., documentation, code packages, laboratory and field trial data, performance results) while conducting in-depth training sessions to provide a thorough explanation of the entire solution. NREL hosts meetings to present different topics related to the RT-OPF solution, and question-and-answer sessions are included in each meeting to better explain the RT-OPF-related work. Second, the RT-OPF simulations are performed in a laboratory environment. The main objectives of this task are to walk through with Utilidata engineers how to set up a simulation of RT-OPF, identifying each RT-OPF code block/component in operation, learning how these components interact with each other, and eventually running RT-OPF simulations under various system conditions. This task helps Utilidata engineers understand performance limitations and constraints while also quantifying the commercial value of the RT-OPF for different use cases. Based on these two tasks, Utilidata engineers should be able to define and prioritize the next steps of RT-OPF implementation with an eye toward commercial success and scalability of the solution. The next steps are expected to be part of a new project following the conclusion of this project.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mass Dependence of Galaxy–Halo Alignment in LOWZ and CMASS

We measure the galaxy-ellipticity (GI) correlations for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 12 LOWZ and CMASS samples with the shape measurements from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys. We model the GI correlations in an N-body simulation with our recent accurate stellar–halo mass relation from the Photometric object Around Cosmic webs (PAC) method. The large data set and our accurate modeling turns out an accurate measurement of the alignment angle between central galaxies and their host halos. We find that the alignment of central elliptical galaxies with their host halos increases monotonically with galaxy stellar mass or host halo mass, which can be well described by a power law for the massive galaxies. We also find that central elliptical galaxies are more aligned with their host halos in LOWZ than in CMASS, which might indicate an evolution of galaxy–halo alignment, though future studies are needed to verify this is not induced by the sample selections. In contrast, central disk galaxies are aligned with their host halos about 10 times more weakly in the GI correlation. These results have important implications for intrinsic alignment (IA) correction in weak lensing studies, IA cosmology, and theory of massive galaxy formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

OGLE-2017-BLG-0406: Spitzer Microlens Parallax Reveals Saturn-mass Planet Orbiting M-dwarf Host in the Inner Galactic Disk

We report the discovery and analysis of the planetary microlensing event OGLE-2017-BLG-0406, which was observed both from the ground and by the Spitzer satellite in a solar orbit. At high magnification, the anomaly in the light curve was densely observed by ground-based-survey and follow-up groups, and it was found to be explained by a planetary lens with a planet/host mass ratio of q=7.0×10{sup −4} from the light-curve modeling. The ground-only and Spitzer-“only” data each provide very strong one-dimensional (1D) constraints on the 2D microlens parallax vector π{sub E}. When combined, these yield a precise measurement of π{sub E} and of the masses of the host M{sub host}=0.56±0.07 M{sub ⊙} and planet M {sub planet} = 0.41 ± 0.05 M {sub Jup}. The system lies at a distance D {sub L} = 5.2 ± 0.5 kpc from the Sun toward the Galactic bulge, and the host is more likely to be a disk population star according to the kinematics of the lens. The projected separation of the planet from the host is a{sub ⊥}=3.5±0.3 au (i.e., just over twice the snow line). The Galactic-disk kinematics are established in part from a precise measurement of the source proper motion based on OGLE-IV data. By contrast, the Gaia proper-motion measurement of the source suffers from a catastrophic 10σ error.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance Characteristics of the BlueField-2 SmartNIC

High-performance computing (HPC) researchers have long envisioned scenarios where application workflows could be improved through the use of programmable processing elements embedded in the network fabric. Recently, vendors have introduced programmable Smart Network Interface Cards (SmartNICs) that enable computations to be offloaded to the edge of the network. There is great interest in both the HPC and high-performance data analytics (HPDA) communities in understanding the roles these devices may play in the data paths of upcoming systems. This paper focuses on characterizing both the networking and computing aspects of NVIDIA’s new BlueField-2 SmartNIC when used in a 100Gb/s Ethernet environment. For the networking evaluation we conducted multiple transfer experiments between processors located at the host, the SmartNIC, and a remote host. These tests illuminate how much effort is required to saturate the network and help estimate the processing headroom available on the SmartNIC during transfers. For the computing evaluation we used the stress-ng benchmark to compare the BlueField-2 to other servers and place realistic bounds on the types of offload operations that are appropriate for the hardware. Our findings from this work indicate that while the BlueField-2 provides a flexible means of processing data at the network’s edge, great care must be taken to not overwhelm the hardware. While the host can easily saturate the network link, the SmartNIC’s embedded processors may not have enough computing resources to sustain more than half the expected bandwidth when using kernel-space packet processing. From a computational perspective, encryption operations, memory operations under contention, and on-card IPC operations on the SmartNIC perform significantly better than the general-purpose servers used for comparisons in our experiments. Therefore, applications that mainly focus on these operations may be good candidates for offloading to the SmartNIC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Solar and Solar+Storage Screening Techniques to Reduce Utility Interconnection Time and Costs (Final Technical Report)

Residential PV installations have increased rapidly over the last decade, and the increased application volume has caused permitting delays and lower overall adoption rates. In this project, we developed and evaluated whether data-driven secondary modeling and screening techniques can help utilities assess customer applications more accurately than traditional screening shortcuts. Secondary topologies are predicted using decision trees and commonly available information, such as service transformer, customer, and street locations. Conductors were predicted using a logistic regression method based on real world object (RWO) types, service transformer ratings, conductor length, and distance to transformer. After developing the combined primary and secondary distribution network model, hosting capacity results were used to train a random forest model to predict the pass/fail likelihood of a customer application. Powerflow based models with predicted secondaries and data-driven methods both increased the screening success rate, relative to common utility heuristics, by as much as 55 percentage points. Data-driven screening techniques were described by one utility as a "right-sized" approach for residential customers given the low-risk of small errors and the high-cost of accurate modeling.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modelling the impact of host galaxy dust on type Ia supernova distance measurements

Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) are a critical tool in measuring the accelerating expansion of the universe. Recent efforts to improve these standard candles have focused on incorporating the effects of dust on distance measurements with SNe Ia. In this paper, we use the state-of-the-art Dark Energy Survey 5 year sample to evaluate two different families of dust models: empirical extinction models derived from SNe Ia data and physical attenuation models from the spectra of galaxies. In this work, we use realistic simulations of SNe Ia to forward-model different models of dust and compare summary statistics in order to test different assumptions and impacts on SNe Ia data. Among the SNe Ia-derived models, we find that a logistic function of the total-to-selective extinction R V best recreates the correlations between supernova distance measurements and host galaxy properties, though an additional 0.02 mag of grey scatter is needed to fully explain the scatter in SNIa brightness in all cases. These empirically derived extinction distributions are highly incompatible with the physical attenuation models from galactic spectral measurements. From these results, we conclude that SNe Ia must either preferentially select extreme ends of galactic dust distributions, or that the characterization of dust along the SNe Ia line-of-sight is incompatible with that of galactic dust distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A case study of denoising microseismic data in the Farnsworth, TX CO 2 EOR site

As geologic carbon sequestration projects begin to be funded with a higher degree of frequency, microseismic monitoring will become more necessary to establish caprock integrity and induced seismicity risk. The Farnsworth, TX site, which hosts enhanced oil recovery operations, provides an ideal laboratory to test essential components of microseismic monitoring such as surface station placement, denoising, and different autopicker methods. We find that despite careful optimization, the surface station placement at the Farnsworth site was insufficient given the high level of background noise from the industrial operations at the oil field. Thus, we use only borehole geophone data in our processing. Two denoising techniques were examined: the DeepDenoiser and the continuous wavelet transform. The continuous wavelet transform was shown to be a valuable tool in converting between raw waveforms to processed denoised waveforms for microseismic monitoring. In the case of the noisy waveforms, only ten detections are found, compared with 90 in the denoised data for a two-hour window. The DeepDenoiser suffered from the fact that the training data was regional earthquake data. In addition, the PhaseNet machine-learning autopicker was applied to both the noisy and the denoised data, and this algorithm detected thousands of more arrivals in the data denoised with the continuous wavelet transform technique.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

X-ray Computed Tomography on UNESE Core: FY2020 Data Report to Support Fracture and Multiphase Fluid Flow Studies

Natural and induced fractures are potential preferential pathways for migration of radioactive gases to earths surface from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). This report documents X-ray computed tomography (XRCT) imaging on 26 samples of rock core that was collected to support the Underground Nuclear Explosion Signatures Experiment (UNESE) program. The XRCT datasets are intended to help fill a data gap on the three-dimensional (3D) characteristics of natural and/or induced fractures at the centimeter and smaller scale, which may strongly influence multiphase fluid flow and transport properties of preferential flow paths and interaction with the matrix of the surrounding host rock. Pre- and post-UNE rock samples were carefully chosen to enable comparison of fractures as a function of lithologic and petrophysical properties, as well as distance to the past UNEs. This report serves as documentation for the data, including an introduction with the research motivation, a methods and materials section, descriptions of the XRCT datasets without post-processing, and recommendations for 3D quantification via image analysis and digital rock physics.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trumpler 16-26: a new centrifugal magnetosphere star discovered via SDSS/APOGEE H -band spectroscopy

ABSTRACT We report the discovery of a new example of the rare class of highly magnetized, rapidly rotating, helium enhanced, early B stars that produce anomalously wide hydrogen emission due to a centrifugal magnetosphere (CM). The star is Trumpler 16-26, a B1.5 V member of the Trumpler 16 open cluster. A CM was initially suspected based on hydrogen Brackett series emission observed in SDSS/APOGEE H-band spectra. Similar to the other stars of this type, the emission was highly variable and at all times remarkable due to the extreme velocity separations of the double peaks (up to 1300 km s−1.) Another clue lay in the TESS light curve, which shows two irregular eclipses per cycle when phased with the likely 0.971 8115-d rotation period, similar to the behaviour of the well-known CM host star σ Ori E. To confirm a strong magnetic field and rotation-phase-locked variability, we initiated a follow-up campaign consisting of optical spectropolarimetry and spectroscopy. The associated data revealed a longitudinal magnetic field varying between −3.1 and +1.6 kG with the period found from photometry. The optical spectra confirmed rapid rotation (v sin i = 195 km s−1), surface helium enhancement, and wide, variable hydrogen emission. Tr16-26 is thus confirmed as the 20th known, the fourth most rapidly rotating, and the faintest CM host star yet discovered. With a projected dipole magnetic field strength of Bd > 11 kG, Tr16-26 is also among the most magnetic CM stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Temperature Dependence of the Multi-Species, Multi-Reaction Model: Part II. Estimation of Entropy Coefficient for Meso-Carbon Micro-Bead Graphite

In Part 1 of this paper, the temperature impact on the Multi-Species, Multi Reaction (MSMR) model was studied. This was accomplished by acquiring data from slow rate lithiation and delithiation of a meso-carbon micro-bead (MCMB) graphite. Through this analysis, the temperature impact on the total fraction of available host sites in a particular MSMR gallery (X j ), the impact on the reference potential (U$^o_j$), and the impact on the parameter detailing the deviation from Nernstian behavior (ω j ) was determined. Here, the intercalation material is discussed, compared to traditional methods of acquiring the entropy coefficient, and comparison is made to previous mathematical estimates. Some of the challenges in using temperature dependent constant rate charge and discharge data as compared to the potentiodynamic entropy coefficient calculation method are also discussed, and a recommendation for future applications is proposed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Delineation of endorheic drainage basins in the MERIT-Plus dataset for 5 and 15 minute upscaled river networks

Abstract The MERIT-Hydro networks re-gridded by the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) algorithm do not retain exo- or endorheic basin attributes from the original data. Here we developed methods to assign such attributes to those and any other digital river networks. The motivation is that endorheic inland drainage basins are essential for hydrologic modelling of global and regional water balances, land surface water storage, gravity anomalies, sea level rise, etc. First, we create basin attributes that explicitly label endorheic and exorheic catchments by the criteria of direct or hidden connectivity to the ocean without changing their flow direction grid. In the second step we alter the delineation of endorheic basins by the merging algorithm that eliminates small inland watersheds to the adjacent host basins. The resulting datasets have a significantly reduced number of endorheic basins while preserving the total land portion and topology of the inland basins. The data was validated using the Water Balance Model by comparing volume of endorheic inland depressions with modelled water accumulation in their inland lakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electromagnetic production of kaons on the nucleon

Studies of the electromagnetic production of strange quarks started in the 1950s as something of a curiosity that puzzled experimentalists and theorists alike. Eventually, a nascent understanding of these processes began to take shape through the first pioneering experiments dedicated to explore photo- and electroproduction that were carried out in the period from the 1950s to the 1980s. As the datasets increased, concomitant advances in theoretical models were realized. However, these initial studies also made clear that more precise data was essential to continue to move forward. A paradigm shift occurred in the 1990s with the development of second-generation facilities at ELSA, MAMI, SPring-8, and JLab. High-intensity, high duty-factor accelerators, coupled with novel detector systems and advances in computing and readout electronics, brought nuclear physics experiments forward by orders of magnitude in counting statistics compared to the first-generation efforts. This was an utter boon to strangeness physics investigations, and to date, more than 50 dedicated experiments in kaon photo- and electroproduction have been completed at facilities around the world, leading to a host of experimental observables that have enabled significant advances in the exploration of strongly interacting systems that decay via $s\bar{s}$ quark pair creation. These data have proven to be an essential complementary pathway to study the spectrum and structure of the excited states of the nucleon, and the search for missing and exotic baryon configurations. As well, investigations in these channels are requisite for exploring hypernuclear production as a probe of the $YN$ interaction and for studies of the electromagnetic form factors of strange mesons. This review was designed to provide the first-ever in-depth overview of both the experimental and theoretical progress in the field of the electromagnetic production of strangeness. This work looks back over 70 years of past developments, discusses ongoing work and near-term plans, and details future possibilities being considered for third-generation facilities. Extensive lists of the available datasets and theoretical models are provided, together with a comprehensive supporting bibliography of the field. Throughout this work, the primary impacts of these explorations are highlighted, along with connections to a wide range of related phenomenological applications. An important goal of this review is to provide a complete, (reasonably) self-contained guide into this field prepared at a level that is relevant for both new and seasoned scientists, whether experimentalists, phenomenologists, or theorists, to better understand what has been accomplished by so many dedicated folks-each building on what has come before-and to appreciate the exciting future potential for continued studies in this area.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Network Anomaly Detection Using Graph Neural Networks

In the world of Internet of Things (IoT) networks, where devices are constantly communicating, keeping them secure from cyber threats is critical. This paper introduces a novel approach to detecting unusual and potentially harmful activities in these networks using graph neural networks (GNNs). We combine two specific types of GNNs-GraphSAGE and graph attention networks (GAT)-to create a model that understands and represents the behaviors and interactions in a network. GraphSAGE creates an embedding of network activities by examining local data interactions, while GAT directs the model's focus to the most critical interactions. By integrating these two methods in a single model that considers different types of interactions (both host and flow nodes), we aim to create a system that accurately represents the current state of a network and can also spot anomalies effectively while reducing false positives and negatives. Our innovative approach has demonstrated promising results, achieving an accuracy of 98% on the UNSW-NB15 dataset, significantly outperforming standalone GraphSAGE and GAT models. This underscores its potential as a robust framework for securing IoT networks against cyber threats and anomalies.

Marfo, William↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data for Evaluation of Strategies to Narrow the Product Chain-Length Distribution of Microbially Synthesized Free Fatty Acids

The dominant strategy for tailoring the chain-length distribution of free fatty acids (FFA) synthesized by heterologous hosts is expression of a selective acyl-acyl carrier protein (ACP) thioesterase. However, few of these enzymes can generate a precise (greater than 90% of a desired chain-length) product distribution when expressed in a microbial or plant host. The presence of alternative chain-lengths can complicate purification in situations where blends of fatty acids are not desired. We report the assessment of several strategies for improving the dodecanoyl-ACP thioesterase from the California bay laurel to exhibit more selective production of medium-chain free fatty acids to near exclusivity. We demonstrated that matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-ToF MS) was an effective library screening technique for identification of thioesterase variants with favorable shifts in chain-length specificity. This strategy proved to be a more effective screening technique than several rational approaches discussed herein. With this data, we isolated four thioesterase variants which exhibited a more selective FFA distribution over wildtype when expressed in the fatty acid accumulating E. coli strain, RL08. We then combined mutations from the MALDI isolates to generate BTE-MMD19, a thioesterase variant capable of producing free fatty acids consisting of 90% of C12 products. Of the four mutations which conferred a specificity shift, we noted that three affected the shape of the binding pocket, while one occurred on the positively charged acyl carrier protein landing pad. Finally, we fused the maltose binding protein (MBP) from E. coli to the N – terminus of BTE-MMD19 to improve enzyme solubility and achieve a titer of 1.9 g per L of twelve-carbon fatty acids in a shake flask.

Conversion↗
DOE OSTI2024

Signatures of Mollicutes-related endobacteria in publicly available Mucoromycota genomes

ABSTRACT Mucoromycota fungi and their Mollicutes-related endobacteria (MRE) are an ideal system for studying bacterial–fungal interactions and evolution due to the long-term and intimate nature of their interactions. However, methods for detecting MRE face specific challenges due to the poor representation of MRE in sequencing databases coupled with the high sequence divergence of their genomes, making traditional similarity searches unreliable. This has precluded estimations on the diversity of MRE associated with Mucoromycota. To determine the prevalence of previously undetected MRE in fungal genome sequences, we scanned 389 Mucoromycota genome assemblies available from the National Center for Biotechnology Information for the presence of MRE sequences using publicly available tools to map contigs from fungal assemblies to publicly available MRE genomes. We demonstrate a higher diversity of MRE genomes than previously described in Mucoromycota and a lack of cophylogeny between MRE and the majority of their fungal hosts. This supports the late invasion hypothesis regarding MRE acquisition across most of the examined fungal families. In contrast with other Mucoromycota lineages, MRE from the Gigasporaceae displayed some degree of cophylogeny with their hosts, which may indicate that horizontal transmission is restricted between members of this family or that transmission is strictly vertical. These results underscore the need for a refined process to capture sequencing data from potential fungal endosymbionts to discern their evolution and transmission. Screens of fungal genomes for MRE can help improve the quality of fungal genome assemblies while identifying new MRE lineages to further test hypotheses on their origin and evolution. IMPORTANCE Mollicutes-related endobacteria (MRE) are obligate intracellular bacteria found within Mucoromycota fungi. Despite their frequent detection, MRE roles in host functioning are still unknown. Comparative genomic investigations can improve our understanding of the impact of MRE on their fungal hosts by identifying similarities and differences in MRE genome evolution. However, MRE genomes have only been assembled from a small fraction of Mucoromycota hosts. Here, we demonstrate that MRE can be present yet undetected in publicly available Mucoromycota genome assemblies. We use these newfound sequences to assess the broader diversity of MRE and their phylogenetic relationships with respect to their hosts. We demonstrate that publicly available tools can be used to extract novel MRE sequences from assembled fungal genomes leading to insights on MRE evolution. This work contributes to a greater understanding of the fungal microbiome, which is crucial to improving knowledge on the dynamics and impacts of fungi in microbial ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

turbine-models

The (wind) turbine-models GitHub repo hosts an archive/database of turbine models already in the public domain. This includes mainly tabular power and thrust (when available) curve data in .csv files, other technical data, as well as documentation and references built with Sphinx/GitHub Pages. There is a script called "curve_parser.py" to assist with the parsing of power and thrust curves, but this repo is mostly a central location for turbine model data.

Duffy, Patrick↗
DOE OSTI2026

Janus v1.0

Janus provides a software framework for lightweight container management and orchestration. It's primary use cases are around deploying containerized services for high-performance data movement needs. Thus, Janus differentiates itself from systems like Kubernetes by tailoring the deployment of containers around network, storage, and host tuning optimizations. Janus uses the concept of profiles to capture repeatable deployment patterns and applies them to container execution across one or more endpoints. A Janus Agent component provides remote host tuning and monitoring capabilities.

Essiari, Abdelilah [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials: A modeling study

Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (p-value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d -1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d -1 ), 0.777 d -1 (0.716 to 0.838 d -1 ), and 0.450 d -1 (0.378 to 0.522 d -1 ) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗