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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Donor-Recipient Identification in Para- and Poly-phyletic Trees Under Alternative HIV-1 Transmission Hypotheses Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Diversity of the founding population of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) transmissions raises many important biological, clinical, and epidemiological issues. In up to 40% of sexual infections, there is clear evidence for multiple founding variants, which can influence the efficacy of putative prevention methods, and the reconstruction of epidemiologic histories. To infer who-infected-whom, and to compute the probability of alternative transmission scenarios while explicitly taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account, we created an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method based on a set of statistics measuring phylogenetic topology, branch lengths, and genetic diversity. We applied our method to a suspected heterosexual transmission case involving three individuals, showing a complex monophyletic-paraphyletic-polyphyletic phylogenetic topology. We detected that seven phylogenetic lineages had been transmitted between two of the individuals based on the available samples, implying that many more unsampled lineages had also been transmitted. Testing whether the lineages had been transmitted at one time or over some length of time suggested that an ongoing superinfection process over several years was most likely. While one individual was found unlinked to the other two, surprisingly, when evaluating two competing epidemiological priors, the donor of the two that did infect each other was not identified by the host root-label, and was also not the primary suspect in that transmission. This highlights that it is important to take epidemiological information into account when analyzing support for one transmission hypothesis over another, as results may be nonintuitive and sensitive to details about sampling dates relative to possible infection dates. Here, our study provides a formal inference framework to include information on infection and sampling times, and to investigate ancestral node-label states, transmission direction, transmitted genetic diversity, and frequency of transmission.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multimodal parameter spaces of a complex multi-channel neuron model

One of the most common types of models that helps us to understand neuron behavior is based on the Hodgkin–Huxley ion channel formulation (HH model). A major challenge with inferring parameters in HH models is non-uniqueness: many different sets of ion channel parameter values produce similar outputs for the same input stimulus. Such phenomena result in an objective function that exhibits multiple modes (i.e., multiple local minima). This non-uniqueness of local optimality poses challenges for parameter estimation with many algorithmic optimization techniques. HH models additionally have severe non-linearities resulting in further challenges for inferring parameters in an algorithmic fashion. To address these challenges with a tractable method in high-dimensional parameter spaces, we propose using a particular Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which has the advantage of inferring parameters in a Bayesian framework. The Bayesian approach is designed to be suitable for multimodal solutions to inverse problems. We introduce and demonstrate the method using a three-channel HH model. We then focus on the inference of nine parameters in an eight-channel HH model, which we analyze in detail. We explore how the MCMC algorithm can uncover complex relationships between inferred parameters using five injected current levels. The MCMC method provides as a result a nine-dimensional posterior distribution, which we analyze visually with solution maps or landscapes of the possible parameter sets. The visualized solution maps show new complex structures of the multimodal posteriors, and they allow for selection of locally and globally optimal value sets, and they visually expose parameter sensitivities and regions of higher model robustness. We envision these solution maps as enabling experimentalists to improve the design of future experiments, increase scientific productivity and improve on model structure and ideation when the MCMC algorithm is applied to experimental data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observational process data analytics using causal inference

Voluminous process data are available with the paradigm shift toward smart manufacturing. However, most historical data are observational, containing noncausal correlations due to confounders and mediators. Estimating causal effects from observational data remains a bottleneck in leveraging them for active applications such as optimization and control. Further, this work aims to introduce a causal modeling framework for analyzing observational process data and extracting quantitative causal information. We demonstrate a real-world application in steel manufacturing where causal inference is used to analyze observational production data and improve the steelmaking process. Additionally, we propose a novel formulation for identifying critical process parameters from observational data, where causal inference is combined with variance-based methods to estimate corresponding risks of interventions to the manufacturing system. The proposed methods are compared with statistical ones to illustrate that causally interpreting statistical correlation leads to problematic results, while the provided workflow generates satisfactory strategies for process improvement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of DESI fiber assignment incompleteness effect on 2-point clustering and mitigation methods for DR1 analysis

We present an in-depth analysis of the fiber assignment incompleteness in the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1). This incompleteness is caused by the restricted mobility of the robotic fiber positioner in the DESI focal plane, which limits the number of galaxies that can be observed at the same time, especially at small angular separations. As a result, the observed clustering amplitude is suppressed in a scale-dependent manner, which, if not addressed, can severely impact the inference of cosmological parameters. We discuss the methods adopted for simulating fiber assignment on mocks and data. In particular, we introduce the fast fiber assignment (FFA) emulator, which was employed to obtain the power spectrum covariance adopted for the DR1 full-shape analysis. We present the mitigation techniques, organised in two classes: measurement stage and model stage. We then use high fidelity mocks as a reference to quantify both the accuracy of the FFA emulator and the effectiveness of the different measurement-stage mitigation techniques. This complements the studies conducted in a parallel paper for the model-stage techniques, namely the θ-cut approach. We find that pairwise inverse probability (PIP) weights with angular upweighting recover the “true” clustering in all the cases considered, in both Fourier and configuration space. Notably, we present the first ever power spectrum measurement with PIP weights from real data.

cosmological simulations↗
DOE OSTI2017

Recovering Interstellar Gas Properties with Hi Spectral Lines: A Comparison between Synthetic Spectra and 21-SPONGE

We analyze synthetic neutral hydrogen (H i) absorption and emission spectral lines from a high-resolution, three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulation to quantify how well observational methods recover the physical properties of interstellar gas. We present a new method for uniformly decomposing H i spectral lines and estimating the properties of associated gas using the Autonomous Gaussian Decomposition (AGD) algorithm. We find that H i spectral lines recover physical structures in the simulation with excellent completeness at high Galactic latitude, and this completeness declines with decreasing latitude due to strong velocity-blending of spectral lines. The temperature and column density inferred from our decomposition and radiative transfer method agree with the simulated values within a factor of <2 for the majority of gas structures. We next compare synthetic spectra with observations from the 21-SPONGE survey at the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array using AGD. We find more components per line of sight in 21-SPONGE than in synthetic spectra, which reflects insufficient simulated gas scale heights and the limitations of local box simulations. In addition, we find a significant population of low-optical depth, broad absorption components in the synthetic data which are not seen in 21-SPONGE. This population is not obvious in integrated or per-channel diagnostics, and reflects the benefit of studying velocity-resolved components. The discrepant components correspond to the highest spin temperatures (1000<T{sub s}<4000 K), which are not seen in 21-SPONGE despite sufficient observational sensitivity. We demonstrate that our analysis method is a powerful tool for diagnosing neutral interstellar medium conditions, and future work is needed to improve observational statistics and implementation of simulated physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Boundary layer stratus clouds - Inferred from satellite infrared spectral measurements over oceans

A method to remotely sense marine stratus clouds, that are underneath the boundary layer inversion produced by strong subsidence, is developed with the help of the measurements made by the Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) on board the Nimbus 4 satellite. These measurements, which had a spectral resolution of 2.8/cm and a field view of about 100 km in the region 870-980/cm, allow one to compare the weak absorption due to water vapor lines with that of the weak nu3-nu1 band of CO2. From such a comparison it is possible to sense the presence of these boundary layer stratus clouds. Maps of these clouds over subsidence regions of the tropical and subtropical oceans deduced from IRIS data show the usefulness of the technique to climatological studies.

Prabhakara, C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stream water sourcing from high-elevation snowpack inferred from stable isotopes of water: a novel application of d-excess values

About 80 % of the precipitation at the Colorado River's headwaters is snow, and the resulting snowmelt-driven hydrograph is a crucial water source for about 40 million people. Snowmelt from alpine and subalpine snowpack contributes substantially to groundwater recharge and river flow. However, the dynamics of snowmelt progression are not well understood because observations of the high-elevation snowpack are difficult due to challenging access in complex mountainous terrain as well as the cost and labor intensity of currently available methods. We present a novel approach to infer the processes and dynamics of high-elevation snowmelt contributions predicated upon stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios observed in streamflow. We show that deuterium-excess (d-excess) values of stream water could serve as a comparatively cost-effective proxy for a catchment-integrated signal of high-elevation snowmelt contributions to catchment runoff. We sampled stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of the precipitation, snowpack, and stream water in the East River, a headwater catchment of the Colorado River, and the stream water of larger catchments at sites on the Gunnison River and Colorado River. The d-excess of snowpack increased with elevation; the upper subalpine and alpine snowpack (> 3200 m) had substantially higher d-excess compared to lower elevations (< 3200 m) in the study area. The d-excess values of stream water reflected this because d-excess values increased as the higher-elevation snowpack contributed more to stream water generation later in the snowmelt/runoff season. End-member mixing analyses based on the d-excess data showed that the share of high-elevation snowmelt contributions within the snowmelt hydrograph was on average 44 % and generally increased during melt period progression, up to 70 %. The observed pattern was consistent during 6 years for the East River, and a similar relation was found for the larger catchments on the Gunnison and Colorado rivers. High-elevation snowpack contributions were found to be higher for years with lower snowpack and warmer spring temperatures. Thus, we conclude that the d-excess of stream water is a viable proxy to observe changes in high-elevation snowmelt contributions in catchments at various scales. Inter-catchment comparisons and temporal trends of the d-excess of stream water could therefore serve as a catchment-integrated measure to monitor if mountain systems rely on high-elevation water inputs more during snow drought compared to years of average snowpack depths.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Disentangling Sources of Gene Tree Discordance in Phylogenomic Data Sets: Testing Ancient Hybridizations in Amaranthaceae s.l

Gene tree discordance in large genomic data sets can be caused by evolutionary processes such as incomplete lineage sorting and hybridization, as well as model violation, and errors in data processing, orthology inference, and gene tree estimation. Species tree methods that identify and accommodate all sources of conflict are not available, but a combination of multiple approaches can help tease apart alternative sources of conflict. Here, using a phylotranscriptomic analysis in combination with reference genomes, we test a hypothesis of ancient hybridization events within the plant family Amaranthaceae s.l. that was previously supported by morphological, ecological, and Sanger-based molecular data. The data set included seven genomes and 88 transcriptomes, 17 generated for this study. We examined gene-tree discordance using coalescent-based species trees and network inference, gene tree discordance analyses, site pattern tests of introgression, topology tests, synteny analyses, and simulations. We found that a combination of processes might have generated the high levels of gene tree discordance in the backbone of Amaranthaceae s.l. Furthermore, we found evidence that three consecutive short internal branches produce anomalous trees contributing to the discordance. Overall, our results suggest that Amaranthaceae s.l. might be a product of an ancient and rapid lineage diversification, and remains, and probably will remain, unresolved. This work highlights the potential problems of identifiability associated with the sources of gene tree discordance including, in particular, phylogenetic network methods. Our results also demonstrate the importance of thoroughly testing for multiple sources of conflict in phylogenomic analyses, especially in the context of ancient, rapid radiations. We provide several recommendations for exploring conflicting signals in such situations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven high-dimensional statistical inference with generative models

Crucial to many measurements at the LHC is the use of correlated multi-dimensional information to distinguish rare processes from large backgrounds, which is complicated by the poor modeling of many of the crucial backgrounds in Monte Carlo simulations. In this work, we introduce HI-SIGMA, a method to perform unbinned high-dimensional statistical inference with data-driven background distributions. In contradistinction to many applications of Simulation Based Inference in High Energy Physics, HI-SIGMA relies on generative ML models, rather than classifiers, to learn the signal and background distributions in the high-dimensional space. These ML models allow for interpretable inference while also incorporating model errors and other sources of systematic uncertainties. We showcase this methodology on a simplified version of a di-Higgs measurement in the bbγγ final state, where the di-photon resonance allows for background interpolation from sidebands into the signal region. We demonstrate that HI-SIGMA provides improved sensitivity as compared to standard classifier-based methods, and that systematic uncertainties can be straightforwardly incorporated by extending methods which have been used for histogram based analyses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recognition Method of Vehicle Cluster Situation Based on Set Pair Logic considering Driver’s Cognition

The recognition of vehicle cluster situations is one of the critical technologies of advanced driving, such as intelligent driving and automated driving. The accurate recognition of vehicle cluster situations is helpful for behavior decision‐making safe and efficient. In order to accurately and objectively identify the vehicle cluster situation, a vehicle cluster situation model is proposed based on the interval number of set pair logic. The proposed model can express the traffic environment’s knowledge considering each vehicle’s characteristics, grouping relationships, and traffic flow characteristics in the target vehicle’s interest region. A recognition method of vehicle cluster situation is designed to infer the traffic environment and driving conditions based on the connection number of set pair logic. In the proposed model, the uncertainty of the driver’s cognition is fully considered. In the recognition method, the relative uncertainty and relative certainty of driver’s cognition, traffic information, and vehicle cluster situation are fully considered. The verification results show that the proposed recognition method of vehicle cluster situations can realize accurate and objective recognition. The proposed anthropomorphic recognition method could provide a basis for vehicle autonomous behavior decision‐making.

Liu, Shijie↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Efficient Bayesian Approach to Learning Droplet Collision Kernels: Proof of Concept Using “Cloudy,” a New n -Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme

The small-scale microphysical processes governing the formation of precipitation particles cannot be resolved explicitly by cloud resolving and climate models. Instead, they are represented by microphysics schemes that are based on a combination of theoretical knowledge, statistical assumptions, and fitting to data (“tuning”). Historically, tuning was done in an ad hoc fashion, leading to parameter choices that are not explainable or repeatable. Recent work has treated it as an inverse problem that can be solved by Bayesian inference. The posterior distribution of the parameters given the data—the solution of Bayesian inference—is found through computationally expensive sampling methods, which require over $\mathcal{O}$(10 5 ) evaluations of the forward model; this is prohibitive for many models. We present a proof of concept of Bayesian learning applied to a new bulk microphysics scheme named “Cloudy,” using the recently developed Calibrate-Emulate-Sample (CES) algorithm. Cloudy models collision-coalescence and collisional breakup of cloud droplets with an adjustable number of prognostic moments and with easily modifiable assumptions for the cloud droplet mass distribution and the collision kernel. The CES algorithm uses machine learning tools to accelerate Bayesian inference by reducing the number of forward evaluations needed to $\mathcal{O}$(10 2 ). It also exhibits a smoothing effect when forward evaluations are polluted by noise. In a suite of perfect-model experiments, we show that CES enables computationally efficient Bayesian inference of parameters in Cloudy from noisy observations of moments of the droplet mass distribution. In an additional imperfect-model experiment, a collision kernel parameter is successfully learned from output generated by a Lagrangian particle-based microphysics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A review of imputation strategies for isobaric labeling-based shotgun proteomics

The throughput efficiency and increased depth of coverage provided by isobaric-labeled proteomics measurements have led to increased usage of these techniques. However, the structure of missing data is uniquely different than unlabeled studies. In this review, we compare the efficacy of nine imputation methods on a CPTAC proteomics iTRAQ dataset. Imputation methods were evaluated with regard to accuracy, variability, statistical hypothesis test inference and run time over datasets consisting of varying number of iTRAQ plexes and percentages of missing data. In general, expectation maximization and random forest imputation methods yielded the best performances, and constant-based methods performed poorly consistently across all dataset sizes and percentages of missing values. For datasets with small sample sizes and higher percentages of missing data, results indicate that statistical inference with no imputation may be preferable. Based on the findings in this review, there are core imputation methods that perform higher for isobaric-labeled proteomics data, but great care and consideration as to whether imputation should be used should be given for datasets comprised of a small number of samples, as well as to factors such as computational time and reproducibility of imputation values.

Bramer, Lisa M.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Inferring occupant counts from Wi-Fi data in buildings through machine learning

An important approach to curtail building energy consumption is to optimize building control based on occupancy information. Various studies proposed to estimate occupant counts through different approaches and sensors. However, high cost and privacy concerns remain as major barriers, restricting the practice of occupant count detection. In this study, we propose a novel method utilizing data from widely deployed Wi-Fi infrastructure to infer occupant counts through machine learning. Compared with the current indirect measurement methods, our method improves the performance of estimating people count: (1) we avoid privacy concerns by anonymizing and reshuffling the MAC addresses on a daily basis; (2) we adopted a heuristic feature engineer approach to cluster connected devices into different types based on their daily connection duration. We tested the method in an office building located in California. In an area with an average occupancy of 22–27 people and a peak occupancy of 48 - 74 people, the root square mean error on the test set is less than four people. The error is within two people counts for more than 70% of estimations, and less than six counts for more than 90% of estimations, indicating a relatively high accuracy. The major contribution of this study is proposing a novel and accurate approach to detect occupant counts in a non-intrusive way, i.e., utilizing existing Wi-Fi infrastructure in buildings without requiring the installation of extra hardware or sensors. The method we proposed is generic and could be applied to other commercial buildings to infer occupant counts for energy efficient building control.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Parameter-masked Mock Data Challenge for Beyond-two-point Galaxy Clustering Statistics

The past few years have seen the emergence of a wide array of novel techniques for analyzing high-precision data from upcoming galaxy surveys, which aim to extend the statistical analysis of galaxy clustering data beyond the linear regime and the canonical two-point (2pt) statistics. We test and benchmark some of these new techniques in a community data challenge named “Beyond-2pt,” initiated during the Aspen 2022 Summer Program “Large-Scale Structure Cosmology beyond 2-Point Statistics,” whose first round of results we present here. The challenge data set consists of high-precision mock galaxy catalogs for clustering in real space, in redshift space, and on a light cone. Participants in the challenge have developed end-to-end pipelines to analyze mock catalogs and extract unknown (“masked”) cosmological parameters of the underlying ΛCDM models with their methods. The methods represented are density-split clustering, nearest neighbor statistics, BACCO power spectrum emulator, void statistics, LEFTfield field-level inference using effective field theory (EFT), and joint power spectrum and bispectrum analyses using both EFT and simulation-based inference. In this work, we review the results of the challenge, focusing on problems solved, lessons learned, and future research needed to perfect the emerging beyond-2pt approaches. The unbiased parameter recovery demonstrated in this challenge by multiple statistics and the associated modeling and inference frameworks supports the credibility of cosmology constraints from these methods. The challenge data set is publicly available, and we welcome future submissions from methods that are not yet represented.

Krause, Elisabeth [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (U↗
DOE OSTI2018

An Integrated Method of ANFIS and Dempster-Shafer Theory for Fault Diagnosis of Power Transformer

Dissolved gas analysis (DGA) approach is extensively applied to detect incipient faults of power transformers. This paper presents a novel DGA method for power transformer incipient fault diagnosis based on integrated adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST). Four out of seven common conventional methods which are studied and compared for better consistency and accuracy, are used to develop new ANFIS based fault diagnosis models. To promote fault diagnostic performance further and make fault decision process more reliable and reasonable, an improved DST is introduced to integrate outputs of each ANFIS based model, and to provide comprehensive and convincing fault diagnosis results. The fault diagnosis capability of the proposed method is validated by a reported fault dataset and 10-fold cross validation experiment. The performance of the proposed method is compared with conventional approaches and ANFIS based models which demonstrate that the proposed method is superior to other methods and is more effective and stable for power transformer fault diagnosis with high accuracy and consistency.

adaptive nuero fuzzy inference system↗
DOE OSTI2022

Phase curves of small bodies from the SLOAN Moving Objects Catalog

Extensive photometric surveys continue to produce enormous stores of data on small bodies. These data are typically sparsely obtained at arbitrary (or unknown) rotational phases. Therefore, new methods for processing such data need to be developed to make the most of these vast catalogs. We aim to produce a method of recreating the phase curves of small bodies by considering the uncertainties introduced by the nominal errors in the magnitudes and the effect introduced by rotational variations. Here, we use the SLOAN Moving Objects Catalog data as a benchmark to construct phase curves of all small bodies in u', g', r', i', and z' filters. From the phase curves, we obtain the absolute magnitudes and we use them to set up the absolute colors, which are the colors of the asteroids that are not affected by changes in the phase angle. We selected objects with ≥3 observations taken in at least one filter and spanning over a minimum of 5 degrees in the phase angle. We developed a method that combines Monte Carlo simulations and Bayesian inference to estimate the absolute magnitudes using the HG 12 * photometric system. We obtained almost 15 000 phase curves, with about 12 000 of these including all five filters. The absolute magnitudes and absolute colors are compatible with previously published data that support our method. The method we developed is fully automatic and well suited for a run based on large amounts of data. Moreover, it includes the nominal uncertainties in the magnitudes and the whole distribution of possible rotational states of the objects producing what are possibly less precise values, that is, larger uncertainties, but more accurate, namely, closer to the actual value. To our knowledge, this work is the first to include the effect of rotational variations in such a manner.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

FedADMP: A Joint Anomaly Detection and Mobility Prediction Framework via Federated Learning

With the proliferation of mobile devices and smart cameras, detecting anomalies and predicting their mobility are critical for enhancing safety in ubiquitous computing systems. Due to data privacy regulations and limited communication bandwidth, it is infeasible to collect, transmit, and store all data from mobile devices at a central location. To overcome this challenge, we propose FedADMP, a federated learning based joint Anomaly Detection and Mobility Prediction framework. FedADMP adaptively splits the training process between the server and clients to reduce computation loads on clients. To protect the privacy of user data, clients in FedADMP upload only intermediate model parameters to the cloud server. We also develop a differential privacy method to prevent the cloud server and external attackers from inferring private information during the model upload procedure. Extensive experiments using real-world datasets show that FedADMP consistently outperforms existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗