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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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557 records · Page 31

Coiled Tube Gas Heaters For Nuclear Gas-Brayton Power Conversion

This project developed an alternative design for heat exchangers for application to heating supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO 2 ) or air for power conversion. We have identified an annular coiled tube bundle configuration–where hot sodium enters tubes from multiple vertical inlet manifold pipes, flows in a spiral pattern radially inward and downward, and then exits into an equal number of vertical outlet manifold pipes–as a potentially attractive option. The S-CO 2 gas or air flows radially outward through the tube bundle. Coiled tube gas heaters (CTGHs) are expected to have excellent thermal shock, long-term thermal creep, in-service inspection, and reparability characteristics, compared to alternative options. CTGHs have significant commonality with modern nuclear steam generators. Extensive experience exists with the design, manufacture, operation, in-service inspection and maintenance of nuclear steam generators. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission also has extensive experience with regulatory guidance documented in NUREG 0800. CTGHs leverage this experience and manufacturing capability. The most important difference between steam generators and gas-Brayton cycles such as the S-CO 2 cycle is that the heat exchangers must operate with counter flow with high effectiveness to minimize the pinch-point temperature difference between the hot liquid coolant and the heated gas. S-CO 2 -cycle gas heaters also operate at sufficiently elevated temperatures that time dependent creep is important and allowable stresses are relatively low. Designing heat exchangers to operate in this regime requires configurations that minimize stresses and stress concentrations. The cylindrical tubes and cylindrical manifold pipes used in CTGHs are particularly effective geometries. The first major goal of this research project was to develop and experimentally validate a detailed, 3-D multi-phase (gas-solid-liquid) heat transport model for CTGHs, using methods similar to earlier UCB multi-scale models for PCHEs, which will enable optimization of CTGH designs with respect to the number of manifold pipes, S-CO 2 and sodium circulating power, and other design parameters. CTGHs are relatively novel because the tubes loaded in compression as well as the manifold pipes which form the tube sheets. The second major goal of the experimental and modeling effort was to optimize the assembly and heat treatment of the tube-to-tubesheet joints, using a novel tapered joint configuration, and to develop diffusion-bonded joints with high shear strength and creep resistance, as has been done in other applications for tapered plugs. The project would also conduct creep testing of these tubesheet joints in pressurized furnaces under prototypical conditions of stress and temperature, however this was not feasible due to numerous hinderances. Detailed microstructural investigations was conducted on the diffusion bond interface, while the bond strength was evaluated by tensile testing. The mechanical testing quantified the overall strength of the bond and measured the pull out force as well as long term behavior, which complemented the microstructural analysis and gave a complete understanding of the diffusion bond.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

The effects of temperatures on the pebble flow in a pebble bed high temperature reactor

The core of a pebble bed high temperature reactor (PBHTR) moves during operation, a feature which leads to better fuel economy (online refueling with no burnable poisons) and lower fuel stress. The pebbles are loaded at the top and trickle to the bottom of the core after which the burnup of each is measured. The pebbles that are not fully burned are recirculated through the core until the target burnup is achieved. The flow pattern of the pebbles through the core is of importance for core simulations because it couples the burnup distribution to the core temperature and power profiles, especially in cores with two or more radial burnup 'zones '. The pebble velocity profile is a strong function of the core geometry and the friction between the pebbles and the surrounding structures (other pebbles or graphite reflector blocks). The friction coefficient for graphite in a helium environment is inversely related to the temperature. The Thorium High Temperature Reactor (THTR) operated in Germany between 1983 and 1989. It featured a two-zone core, an inner core (IC) and outer core (OC), with different fuel mixtures loaded in each zone. The rate at which the IC was refueled relative to the OC in THTR was designed to be 0.56. During its operation, however, this ratio was measured to be 0.76, suggesting the pebbles in the inner core traveled faster than expected. It has been postulated that the positive feedback effect between inner core temperature, burnup, and pebble flow was underestimated in THTR. Because of the power shape, the center of the core in a typical cylindrical PBHTR operates at a higher temperature than the region next to the side reflector. The friction between pebbles in the IC is lower than that in the OC, perhaps causing a higher relative flow rate and lower average burnup, which in turn yield a higher local power density. Furthermore, the pebbles in the center region have higher velocities than the pebbles next to the side reflector due to the interaction between the pebbles and the immobile graphite reflector as well as the geometry of the discharge conus near the bottom of the core. In this paper, the coupling between the temperature profile and the pebble flow dynamics was analyzed by using PEBBED/THERMIX and PEBBLES codes by modeling the HTR-10 reactor in China. Two extreme and opposing velocity profiles are used as a starting point for the iterations. The PEBBED/THERMIX code is used to calculate the burnup, power and temperature profiles with one of the velocity profiles as input. The resulting temperature profile is then passed to PEBBLES code to calculate the updated pebble velocity profile taking the new temperature profile into account. If the aforementioned hypothesis is correct, the strong temperature effect upon the friction coefficients would cause the two cases to converge to different final velocity and temperature profiles. The results of this analysis indicates that a single zone pebble bed core is self-stabilizing in terms of the pebble velocity profile and the effect of the temperature profile on the pebble flow is insignificant. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Multiple microbial guilds mediate soil methane cycling along a wetland salinity gradient

ABSTRACT Estuarine wetlands harbor considerable carbon stocks, but rising sea levels could affect their ability to sequester soil carbon as well as their potential to emit methane (CH 4 ). While sulfate loading from seawater intrusion may reduce CH 4 production due to the higher energy yield of microbial sulfate reduction, existing studies suggest other factors are likely at play. Our study of 11 wetland complexes spanning a natural salinity and productivity gradient across the San Francisco Bay and Delta found that while CH 4 fluxes generally declined with salinity, they were highest in oligohaline wetlands (ca. 3-ppt salinity). Methanogens and methanogenesis genes were weakly correlated with CH 4 fluxes but alone did not explain the highest rates observed. Taxonomic and functional gene data suggested that other microbial guilds that influence carbon and nitrogen cycling need to be accounted for to better predict CH 4 fluxes at landscape scales. Higher methane production occurring near the freshwater boundary with slight salinization (and sulfate incursion) might result from increased sulfate-reducing fermenter and syntrophic populations, which can produce substrates used by methanogens. Moreover, higher salinities can solubilize ionically bound ammonium abundant in the lower salinity wetland soils examined here, which could inhibit methanotrophs and potentially contribute to greater CH 4 fluxes observed in oligohaline sediments. IMPORTANCE Low-level salinity intrusion could increase CH4 flux in tidal freshwater wetlands, while higher levels of salinization might instead decrease CH4 fluxes. High CH4 emissions in oligohaline sites are concerning because seawater intrusion will cause tidal freshwater wetlands to become oligohaline. Methanogenesis genes alone did not account for landscape patterns of CH4 fluxes, suggesting mechanisms altering methanogenesis, methanotrophy, nitrogen cycling, and ammonium release, and increasing decomposition and syntrophic bacterial populations could contribute to increases in net CH4 flux at oligohaline salinities. Improved understanding of these influences on net CH4 emissions could improve restoration efforts and accounting of carbon sequestration in estuarine wetlands. More pristine reference sites may have older and more abundant organic matter with higher carbon:nitrogen compared to wetlands impacted by agricultural activity and may present different interactions between salinity and CH4. This distinction might be critical for modeling efforts to scale up biogeochemical process interactions in estuarine wetlands.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

SWIRP (Submm-Wave and Long Wave InfraRed Polarimeter); Development and Characterization of a Sub-Mm Polarimeter for Ice Cloud Investigations

A major source of uncertainty in climate models is the presence, shape and distribution of ice particles in the uppermost layers of the clouds. The effects of this component are poorly constrained, turning ice particles into an almost-free variable in many climate models.NASA-GSFC is developing a new instrument aimed at measuring the size and shape of ice particles. The instrument consists of two sub-mm polarimeters (at 220 and 670 GHz) coupled with a long-wave infrared polarimeter at 10 micron. Each polarimeter has identical V-pol and H-pol channels; the axes of polarization are defined geometrically by the orientation of the waveguide elements, and the purity has been measured in the lab. The instrument is configured as a conical scanner, suitable for deployment as a payload on a small satellite or on a high-altitude sub-orbital platform. From a 400 km orbit, the instrument has a 3dB spatial resolution of 20 (10) km at 220 (670) GHz and a swath of 600 km over 180 degrees of view.The BAPTA (Bearing And Power Transfer Assembly) carries heritage from the SSMIS design, now in its 22nd year of on-orbit operation, but with a much reduced SWaP (Size Weight and Power) footprint, suitable for a small satellite.The main components of the instrument have been fabricated and are undergoing final testing prior to their integration as a single unit. The sub-mm channels have dedicated secondary reflectors which illuminate a shared primary reflector. The receiving units are placed behind the focal point of the optical arrangement, so that all beams equally illuminate the primary reflector and are almost co-located on the ground (within a single 220 GHz footprint). Primary and secondary beam patterns have been measured and verified to match the as-designed expectations. A Zytex (TM) window is deployed to protect the secondary reflectors and the feed horns from debris and other contaminants, and to reduce the heat load from the active (hot) IR calibration unit. The insertion loss of Zytex has been measured and is accounted in the calibration equation of the sub-mm channels.The radiometric performance of the sub-mm receivers has been characterized in the lab and under operational conditions of temperature and pressure.This paper discusses the design constraints on the sub-mm components, details of the scientific goals and their flowdown, and describes the characterization of the polarimeters. Options to optimize the layout and distribution of the masses within the assembly, with the goal of making the instrument even more compact and fully-compatible with cubesat-class satellites will be presented.

De Amici, G.↗

Geometric and Material Variability Influences Stress States Relevant to Coastal Permafrost Bluff Failure

Scientific knowledge and engineering tools for predicting coastal erosion are largely confined to temperate climate zones that are dominated by non-cohesive sediments. The pattern of erosion exhibited by the ice-bonded permafrost bluffs in Arctic Alaska, however, is not well-explained by these tools. Investigation of the oceanographic, thermal, and mechanical processes that are relevant to permafrost bluff failure along Arctic coastlines is needed. We conducted physics-based numerical simulations of mechanical response that focus on the impact of geometric and material variability on permafrost bluff stress states for a coastal setting in Arctic Alaska that is prone to toppling mode block failure. Our three-dimensional geomechanical boundary-value problems output static realizations of compressive and tensile stresses. We use these results to quantify variability in the loci of potential instability. We observe that niche dimension affects the location and magnitude of the simulated maximum tensile stress more strongly than the bluff height, ice wedge polygon size, ice wedge geometry, bulk density, Young's Modulus, and Poisson's Ratio. Our simulations indicate that variations in niche dimension can produce radically different potential failure areas and that even relatively shallow vertical cracks can concentrate displacement within ice-bonded permafrost bluffs. These findings suggest that stability assessment approaches, for which the geometry of the failure plane is delineated a priori, may not be ideal for coastlines similar to our study area and could hamper predictions of erosion rates and nearshore sediment/biogeochemical loading.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electromagnetic Transient Modeling of Large Data Centers for Grid-Level Studies

The magnitude and complexity of electricity usage patterns from large data centers are having significant impacts on the operation and dynamics of the power grid; grid operators and planners require a range of specialized data center models to properly evaluate these impacts and specify technical solutions as needed. Towards addressing this need, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed a library of electromagnetic transient (EMT) models for grid-level studies of data centers called the data center model library (DML). This report describes how the DML was created and how it may properly be used. The models present in the DML are generic models; subject matter expertise and additional technical data are needed to modify these models before they can represent any real data center. However, they will significantly reduce the level of effort required to develop site-specific models and can serve as a common starting point to guide industry towards a more refined consensus. Most of the models within DML are dedicated to representing the power electronics interfaces commonly used in modern data centers, such as double-conversion uninterruptible power supplies and single-phase power factor correction converters. These models are intended for use in grid-level studies and are a simplified aggregation of many small components. That said, background material on the physical and electrical design of large data centers is provided as companion material so that users can be aware of many of the details which have been omitted or streamlined as a matter of practical necessity. Additionally, guidance on the application of EMT analysis for data center interconnection studies is provided, which aids users in identifying when the DML is necessary and what sort of additional model development may be necessary for conducting real-world studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multimodal Nondestructive Dry Cask Basket Structure and Spent Fuel Evaluation

This NEUP-IRP assembled a team from diverse institutions and a diverse set of expertise to examine the problem of assessing the structural health of dry nuclear fuel storage casks, specifically the TN-32 design. With no physical access designed into these storage casks and the high cost and risk associated with opening casks for direct inspection, the technical difficulty of structural assessment of the basket structure and fuel assemblies is high. In response to this challenge, this IRP brought together experts in both traditional and novel NDE methodologies: active acoustics (University of Mississippi), emissions tomography (University of Florida), muon tomography (Oregon State University), and passive-active ultrasonics (University of South Carolina). Further, our industry partners in the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and AREVA provided invaluable insight into technical design details for the cask, practical knowledge of operating parameters at a storage facility, and key relationships that enabled activities unforeseen at the time of the proposed work but were critical in guiding the path of the research. The team decided early in the project that we had a collective goal of laying the technical ground work for practical solutions that could be implemented in the field with reasonable cost, time, and reliability. A fortunate opportunity arose early in this IRP project to obtain access to a new TN-32 cask at Columbiana High Tech. Both acoustics teams were given access for testing concepts in the first year of the project. This ended up providing critical guidance in the design of subsequent laboratory experiments. Specifically, it became clear that the only reliable acoustic pathways to the interior were through the trunnions, base plate, and top ring of the cask. Based on these field tests and discussions about what would be of practical interest, the team as a whole decided a realistic goal was to detect catastrophic failure of a single fuel assembly, or one that was missing. It is clear from this work that the active acoustics / resonance and muon tomography methodologies would be capable of detecting interior structural integrity problems at this level. The other two areas of investigation (emissions tomography and passive/active ultrasonics) would need more testing to determine a successful implementation, but each may also have other applications such as long term monitoring and monitoring during transportation. This IRP project resulted in technical advances with applications that extend beyond the problem at hand, supported the training of 10 graduate students + 1 post doc, 21 publications, and 13 conference presentations. The remainder of this summary highlights significant activities and achievements in each of the methodologies and a brief discussion on how they can be combined to leverage strengths. Active Acoustics The active acoustics team at UM used both linear and non-linear structural resonance methods to infer information about the internal structure of a cask. Significant activities were a set of four field test measurements on a full scale TN-32 cask at the Columbiana Hi Tech facility in Greensboro, NC and the design and fabrication of a 1/6th scale model TN-32 cask for laboratory measurements. A significant set of acoustic data has been acquired on both the full scale and laboratory scale casks. It was determined early in the project that mechanical resonance techniques were not going to be sensitive to small scale (centimeter) cracks and structural defects in the basket structure or fuel assemblies. We were able to ascertain that both the energy and complexity of the resonance spectra were sensitive to “bulk state” of the fuel assemblies – an intact assembly versus a severely degraded assembly. By developing a novel combination of metrics, we are able to measure a statistically significant shift due to one out of the 32 fuel assemblies being either missing or degraded to a point of complete loss of structural coherence (i.e. “rubble”). We believe this combination of resonance metrics is new to the field and will have applications beyond the fuel storage problem. Emissions Tomography The Emissions Tomography team at the University of Florida explored the concept of using scattering of radiation emissions from the stored fuel as method of evaluating the internal structural health of the cask. Due to the need for emissive fuel assemblies and the difficulties of gaining access to storage facilities, this team primarily relied on simulations to inform feasibility. A key question was the flux estimates of neutrons with a small enough number of scattering events to retain spatial information. Some key conclusions from the transmission component of this work are that the number of scattering events falls rapidly with energy – setting a 11MeV threshold, the average number of scattering events is 8∓4. Rough estimates of scanning times using an ideal detector array would be 1 week. The team also explored the case of significant structural failure resulting in a shift of the source material (fuel). The result is that a +/- 2% mass shift results in a detectable (5.13%) shift in the correlated 2 neutron emission counts and thus may be a candidate as an initial survey. Finally, simulations for predicting the azimuthal dependence of the flux based on specific loading patterns were conducted. Due to self-shielding effects of the assemblies, a periodic pattern results and could potentially be used to identify missing or severely degraded assemblies. This work forms a basis for proper detector placement with the goal of optimizing sensitivity. Muon Tomography Muon tomography (MT) is a relatively novel method of interrogating interior structure on a large scale. One of the advantages of this technique is that the exciting energy source (cosmic muons) is ubiquitous and relatively stable in time. Challenging aspects are relatively low flux rates and appropriate detector technologies. The efforts of the muon group at Oregon State University focused on two areas: (1) simulation of various combinations of muon scattering events and detection schemes to assess sensitivities and time scales for image construction and (2) building a prototype muon detection system applicable to the dry storage cask problem as well as many other similar systems. Significant accomplishments in this area are: (1) demonstration that MT is a viable method for detecting missing or severely degraded rod assemblies, (2) a scintillation based detector with 4 panels and 32 channels of position data each were constructed, tested, and calibrated. Testing of the panels using natural muon background and no scattering objects yielded largely expected results – a straight line path for the muon through the four panels. However some anomalies (paths deviating from a line) were also detected. A redesign of the board improved the signal which greatly improved the muon tracking through the panels. Testing with lead bricks as scattering bodies showed a reduction in the coincidence rate with increasing bricks indicating increased scattering events. A refinement of the scintillator detector design resulted in a spatial image resolution of around 2 cm based on lead brick spacing tests lasting 24 hours. Passive/Active Ultrasonics This team at the University of South Carolina investigated the feasibility of combining passive ultrasonics, in which an elastic pulse is generated by a degradation process (such as a crack extending), and active ultrasonics, in which a known excitation is introduced into the structure and detected by an array of transducers. Significant accomplishments in this area include the development of elastic wave propagation simulation in relevant materials, development of diagnostic algorithms, and laboratory testing and validation using laser doppler vibrometry. This group demonstrated the applicability of various non-contact vibration detection methodologies such as air-coupled ultrasonic transducers and scanning laser doppler vibrometry. While passive acoustic emissions monitoring will likely have a role during the transportation of a fuel storage cask, the level of detailed information about the defect generating the event which can be ascertained from the detections in a complex structure remains for future work. Thermography The EPRI team contributed early in the project a series of thermography measurements in which various levels of water pooled in a mock-up canister were analyzed using commercially available infrared imaging technologies. While large levels of water (100 L, ~10 cm deep) were observable in the thermograms, more realistic levels of pooled water (1 L) were not detectable whether localized or distributed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Electromagnetic Transient Modeling of Large Data Centers for Grid-Level Studies: Beta Release

The magnitude and complexity of electricity usage patterns from large data centers are having significant impacts on the operation and dynamics of the power grid; grid operators and planners require a range of specialized data center models to properly evaluate these impacts and specify technical solutions as needed. Towards addressing this need, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed a library of electromagnetic transient (EMT) models for grid-level studies of data centers called the data center model library (DML). This report describes how the DML was created and how it may properly be used. This report details the DML’s beta release, completed in July 2026. This is a revision and expansion of the alpha release, which was made available in January 2026 The models present in the DML are generic models; subject matter expertise and additional technical data are needed to modify these models before they can represent any real data center. However, they will significantly reduce the level of effort required to develop site-specific models and can serve as a common starting point to guide industry towards a more refined consensus. Most of the models within DML are dedicated to representing the power electronics interfaces commonly used in modern data centers, such as double-conversion uninterruptible power supplies and single-phase power factor correction converters. These models are intended for use in grid-level studies and are a simplified aggregation of many small components. That said, background material on the physical and electrical design of large data centers is provided as companion material so that users can be aware of many of the details which have been omitted or streamlined as a matter of practical necessity. Additionally, guidance on the application of EMT analysis for data center interconnection studies is provided, which aids users in identifying when the DML is necessary and what sort of additional model development may be necessary for conducting real-world studies.

electromagnetic transients↗

Development of Smart Ventilation Control Algorithms for Humidity Control in High-Performance Homes in Humid U.S. Climates

Past field research and simulation studies have shown that high performance homes experience elevated indoor humidity levels for substantial portions of the year in humid climates. This is largely the result of lower sensible cooling loads, which reduces the moisture removed by the cooling system. These elevated humidity levels lead to concerns about occupant comfort, health and building durability. Use of mechanical ventilation at rates specified in ASHRAE Standard 62.2-2013 are often cited as an additional contributor to humidity problems in these homes. Past research has explored solutions, including supplemental dehumidification, cooling system operational enhancements and ventilation system design (e.g., ERV, supply, exhaust, etc.). This project’s goal is to develop and demonstrate (through simulations) smart ventilation strategies that can contribute to humidity control in high performance homes. These strategies must maintain IAQ via equivalence with ASHRAE Standard 62.2-2013. To be acceptable they must not result in excessive energy use. Smart controls will be compared with dehumidifier energy and moisture performance. This work explores the development and performance of smart algorithms for control of mechanical ventilation systems, with the objective of reducing high humidity in modern high performance residences. Simulations of DOE Zero-Energy Ready homes were performed using the REGCAP simulation tool. Control strategies were developed and tested using the Residential Integrated Ventilation (RIVEC) controller, which tracks pollutant exposure in real-time and controls ventilation to provide an equivalent exposure on an annual basis to homes meeting ASHRAE 62.2-2013. RIVEC is used to increase or decrease the real-time ventilation rate to reduce moisture transport into the home or increase moisture removal. This approach was implemented for no-, one- and two-sensor strategies, paired with a variety of control approaches in six humid climates (Miami, Orlando, Houston, Charleston, Memphis and Baltimore). The control options were compared to a baseline system that supplies outdoor air to a central forced air cooling (and heating) system (CFIS) that is often used in hot humid climates. Simulations were performed with CFIS ventilation systems operating on a 33% duty-cycle, consistent with 62.2-2013. The CFIS outside airflow rates were set to 0%, 50% and 100% of 62.2-2013 requirements to explore effects of ventilation rate on indoor high humidity. These simulations were performed with and without a dehumidifier in the model. Ten control algorithms were developed and tested. Analysis of outdoor humidity patterns facilitated smart control development. It was found that outdoor humidity varies most strongly seasonally—by month of the year—and that all locations follow the similar pattern of much higher humidity during summer. Daily and hourly variations in outdoor humidity were found to be progressively smaller than the monthly seasonal variation. Patterns in hourly humidity are driven by diurnal daily patterns, so they were predictable but small, and were unlikely to provide much control benefit. Variation in outdoor humidity between days was larger, but unpredictable, except by much more complex climate models. We determined that no-sensor strategies might be able to take advantage of seasonal patterns in humidity, but that real-time smart controls were required to capture variation between days. Sensor-based approaches are also required to respond dynamically to indoor conditions and variations not considered in our analysis. All smart controls face trade-offs between sensor accuracy, cost, complexity and robustness.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim↗

3-D Geologic Controls of Hydrothermal Fluid Flow at Brady Geothermal Field, Nevada using PCA

In many hydrothermal systems, fracture permeability along faults provides pathways for groundwater to transport heat from depth. Faulting generates a range of deformation styles that cross-cut heterogeneous geology, resulting in complex patterns of permeability, porosity, and hydraulic conductivity. Vertical connectivity (a through going network of permeable areas that allows advection of heat from depth to the shallow subsurface) is rare and is confined to relatively small volumes that have highly variable spatial distribution. This local compartmentalization of connectivity represents a significant challenge to understanding hydrothermal circulation and for exploring, developing, and managing hydrothermal resources. Here, we present an evaluation of the geologic characteristics that control this compartmentalization in hydrothermal systems through 3-D analysis of the Brady geothermal field in western Nevada. A published 3-D geologic map of the Brady area is used as a basis to develop structural and geological variables that are hypothesized to control or effect permeability or connectivity. The 3-D distribution of these variables is compared to the distribution of productive and non-productive fluid flow intervals along production wells and non-productive wells via principal component analysis (PCA). This comparison elucidates which geologic and structural variables are most closely associated with productive fluid flow intervals. Results indicate that production intervals at Brady are located: (1) within or near to known and stress-loaded macro-scale faults, and (2) in areas of high fault and fracture density. This submission includes the published journal article detailing this work, the published 3-D geologic map of the Brady Geothermal Area used as a basis to develop structural and geological variables that are hypothesized to control or effect permeability or connectivity, 3-D well data, along which geologic data were sampled for PCA analyses, and associated metadata file. This work was done using existing R programs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

FY23 Report on Water NSTF Testing at Two-Phase Conditions: Off-normal Scenarios

Under support from the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Office of Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART), a large-scale test facility has been constructed at Argonne National Laboratory to generate NQA-1 qualified validation data for passive decay heat removal systems in advanced reactors. The Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) reflects key features of a ½ scale, water-based, Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) and is intended to study the behavior, bound performance, and ultimately guide design decisions for passive decay heat removal systems for advanced reactors. In addition to the experimental activities detailed in this report, a supportive computational modeling effort is on-going which has been demonstrated to significantly strengthen the experimental program while also improving accuracy of the computer models. Together these create a mutually beneficial relationship integral to meeting the overall program objective of examining the heat removal performance of the RCCS concept. This report details the experimental activities and upgrades performed during the program’s fifth year of water-based operation. The theme of this year of testing was examining off-normal scenarios. In practice, that meant examining scenarios with blockages or other design basis conditions. From a maintenance and capability standpoint that meant assessing valving options for implementing blockages, assessing drain and refill capabilities, and ensuring in all cases that operators could safely, efficiently, and repeatably bring the facility to an off-normal condition and return it to the normal operating state. In one notable case, no solution existed, nor was a solution commercially available, that met the facility needs for implementing blockages within the two-phase region of the chimney. A valve and feedthrough were custom-designed for NSTF to operate submerged in saturated water while being safely actuated from outside the tank. The fifth year of testing included eight matrix tests consisting of 162 hours of active heating, 9,735 kWh of electrical heating, with seven tests classified as Accepted per NQA-1 and one as Trending. All matrix tests were performed at two-phase flow conditions. The power parametric series from previous years was extended to include another scenario with a decay load equivalent to 1.75 MWt, full scale, further resolving the system flow oscillation response as a function of input power. A depletion test was performed to extend previous work and examine the system’s approach to stagnation and geysering that were not previously observed. This test began at an initial inventory level of 50%, prototypic power of 2.1 MWt, and employed an accelerated drain of 0.75 gpm plus boiloff until stagnation conditions were achieved and multiple geysering events were recorded. Further exploring the geysering phenomenon was a separate effects test examining static boiling in the risers and chimney. This static boiling test was performed at 48 kWe, a higher power than testing in the previous year, and included enhancements to the drain system to remove inventory in a better-controlled and more reliable manner. Two tests were performed, at prototypic conditions of 1.4 MWt and 2.4 MWt, respectively, examining the system response to throttled conditions in the singlephase region of the piping. A ball valve immediately before he riser inlet header was increasingly throttled, progressing the system through a repeatable pattern of two-phase oscillations and stable regimes before ultimately inducing stagnation and geysering. Concluding the year, two tests were performed at baseline conditions of 70% initial inventory level and 2.1 MWt of prototypic decay heat to examine both repeatability and the response to throttling within the two-phase region, at the inventory tank inlet using the custom valve mentioned above. The first such test repeated transient operating conditions and revealed significant sensitivity t

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Mechanism-Informed Breakdown: Understanding Degradation by Controlling Voltage-Hold Patterns in Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzers

Low catalyst loadings pose challenges to performance stability in proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolysis over extended operation. To study the impact of degradation mechanisms and voltage loss rates, different stress tests are applied to membrane electrode assemblies. Potential cycling conditions were observed to induce higher degrees of iridium (Ir) oxide crystallization, ionomer degradation, and catalyst layer (CL) thinning, which likely contributed to higher kinetic loss rates. On the other hand, while Ir migrating into the PEM (Ir band) generally impairs performance, the interconnected and more uniform Ir band formed under a constant 2 V hold may allow for Ir at the catalyst/membrane interface to remain electronically connected and kinetically accessible, as well as indicate greater Ir site access during the applied stressor. The 2 V hold also demonstrates improved kinetic durability through a lower Tafel slope, faster polarization kinetics, and reduced charge transfer resistance. In contrast, potential cycling caused the migration of disconnected Ir agglomerates into the membrane bulk and created a steady increase in charge transfer resistance, a more dramatic decrease in capacitance (46.7% loss), and significant damage to the surrounding ionomer, indicating a decline in both the quality and quantity of active sites in the anode CL. This work underscores the distinct degradation pathways associated with load holds versus cycling, highlighting the role of catalyst-ionomer interactions in kinetic performance and long-term stability. These insights can inform operational strategies for PEM electrolyzers powered by intermittent energy sources, aiming to minimize efficiency losses over extended operation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Final Report DE-FE0031785 Mohsen Ahmadian, Ph.D. Demonstration of Proof of Concept of a Multiphysics Approach for Real-Time Remote Monitoring of Dynamic Changes in Pressure and Salinity in Hydraulically Fractured Networks

Hydraulic fracturing has evolved into a multistep process with varying flow rates, carrier fluids (e.g., gel or slickwater), proppant loadings, and proppant grain sizes. As a result, primary recovery from a hydraulically fractured tight-oil reservoir is often a tiny fraction of the original oil in place, ranging between 5 and 10%. As stated in the FOA1990, “part of this problem is due to the inability of current well completion processes to effectively stimulate the entire reservoir volume in contact with the wellbore. Innovative technologies are needed that can help improve the effectiveness of reservoir completion methods, maximize stimulated reservoir volumes, and optimize recovery over the entire producing life span of a well”. We first need to enhance the current fracture diagnostic techniques to improve a well-completion design. However, detecting and delineating a subsurface hydraulic fracture is extremely difficult because the induced fracture network is only fractionally propped, and these propped fractures are generally very thin. Microseismic and tiltmeter monitoring techniques can provide information on the fracture extent but provide little or no information on the movement and final distribution of proppant or production fluids. On the other hand, electromagnetic (EM) imaging has shown the capability to monitor proppant distribution throughout the fracture area, especially in the presence of Electrically Active Proppants (EAPs). A previous EM survey of hydraulic fracturing at the Devine Fracture Pilot Site (DFPS) and subsequent EM code developments demonstrated this survey as a robust technique to remotely interrogate the extent of the EAP-filled hydraulic fracture during its propagation. The objectives of the project were threefold: (1) to capitalize on the material properties of an EAP to demonstrate remote monitoring of relative changes in pressure, pressure, and flow that are commonly encountered during production from a hydraulically fractured reservoir; (2) to evaluate EM imaging tools, to achieve Objective 1 in near real-time; and (3) to develop a multi-physics joint inversion approach to precisely predict flow patterns and physiochemical changes within an EAP-filled fracture network. This research project was built upon our previous work at the Devine Test Site managed by the Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG) at The University of Texas at Austin (UT-Austin). It also leveraged a significant investment from the Advanced Energy Consortium (AEC) to address the DOE's interest in subsurface flow, containment, and characterization by multiple signals. This three-year and three-month project succeeded in demonstrating the feasibility of a real-time dynamic fluid flow mapping technique at Technology Readiness Level 5 (TRL5) by utilizing a commercially available surface-based Controlled-Source Electromagnetic (CSEM) method (Objectives 1, 2). We demonstrated that injections into an EAP-filled fracture could be successfully coupled with real-time electric field measurements on the surface, leading to remote monitoring of dynamic changes within the EAP-filled fracture. Furthermore, the observed electric field in our study is influenced by bottomhole pressure, flow rate, and salinity, which is demonstrated by comparing these parameters with the electrical field potentials. EM simulations solely based on assumptions of fracture conductivity changes during injection did not reproduce the whole measured electric field magnitudes. Preliminary estimates showed that including Streaming Potential (SP) in our geophysical model is likely needed to reduce the simulation misfit.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Data Locality Enhancement of Dynamic Simulations for Exascale Computing (Final Report)

The development of modern processors exhibits two trends that complicate the optimizations of modern software. The first is the increasing sensitivity of processors' throughput to irregularities in computation. With more processors produced through a massive integration of simple cores, future systems will increasingly favor regular data-level parallel computations, but deviate from the needs of applications with complex patterns. Some evidences are already shown on Graphic Processing Units (GPU): Irregular data accesses (e.g., indirect references A[D[i]]) and conditional branches are limiting many GPU applications' performance at a level an order of magnitude lower than the peak of GPU. The second hardware trend is the growing gap between memory bandwidth and the aggregate speed—that is, the sum of all cores' computing power—of a Chip Multiprocessor (CMP). Despite the capped growth of the peak CPU speed, the aggregate speed of a CMP keeps increasing as more cores get into a single chip. It is expected that by 2018, node concurrency in an exascale system will increase by hundreds of times, whereas, memory bandwidth will expand by only 10 to 20 times. Consequently, data movement and storage is expected to consume more than 70% of the total system power. Bridging this gap is difficult; the complexities of modern CMP memory hierarchy make it even harder: Data cache becomes shared among computing units, and the sharing is often non-uniform—whether two computing units share a cache depends on their proximity and the level of the cache. On the recent IBM Power7 architecture, for instance, four hardware contexts (or SMT threads) in a core share the entire memory hierarchy, all cores in one chip share an on-chip L3 cache, and cores across chips share L3 and main memory through off-chip connections. These two trends complicate the translation of computing power into performance, especially for a program with either intensive data accesses or complex patterns in data accesses or control flow paths. Unfortunately, both attributes present and will persist in a class of important applications. For instance, many scientific simulations deal with a large volume of data. And meanwhile, as most real-world processes are non-uniform and evolving (e.g., the evolution of a galaxy or the process of a drug injection), both the computations and data accesses of these programs tend to be irregular and dynamically changing. Currently, the lack of support to these applications on modern CMP severely limits their performance. On GPU, as our recent study shows and other studies echo, performance enhancement of a factor of integers is possible when memory accesses or control flows are streamlined for a set of GPU applications. On multicore CPU, our studies show that traditional locality enhancement, for being oblivious to the new features of multicore memory hierarchy, may even cause large slowdown to data-intensive dynamic applications. The severity of the issues is expected to worsen as the two hardware trends continue. Some recent studies try to match software with the trends, but in a limited scope or manner. For irregularities on GPU, most studies focus on irregularities analyzable through static analysis (e.g., data accesses in regular loops). Dynamic irregularities are harder to address because the needed analysis and transformations typically have to happen at run time. Some other research resorts to hardware extensions, an actual adoption of which is unclear for the entailed space cost and complexity. For data locality, recent years have seen some exploitations of the new memory hierarchy on multicore for performance, but most of them are on process or thread scheduling, rather than program transformations. Our recent study reveals that program-level transformations may magnify the scheduling benefits by a factor of seven, concluding that program-level transformation should play a central role for data locality enhancement on modern CMP. But research in this direction has been sparse, and most have focused on data layout or cache performance modeling, rather than program transformations to match with the new memory hierarchy features. Overall, it is still an open question how to bridge the gap between dynamic computations and the two prominent properties of modern processors. The goal of this project is to develop a set of techniques and software tools to enhance the matching between memory accesses in dynamic simulations and the prominent features of modern and future CMP, alleviating the memory performance issues for petascale and exascale computing. This report summarizes the discoveries and products produced throughout this project. It includes free launch, a new software approach to overcoming the shortcomings of both methods; coherence-free multiview, an approach that allows multiple views of a single data object to co-exist on GPU memory during a GPU kernel execution; algorithmic optimizations to data analytics problems, especially those that involve lots of distance calculations. Supporting dynamic parallelism is important for GPU to benefit a broad range of applications. There are currently two fundamental ways for programs to exploit dynamic parallelism on GPU: a software-based approach with software-managed worklists, and a hardware-based approach through dynamic subkernel launches. Neither is satisfactory. The former is complicated to program and is often subject to some load imbalance; the latter suffers large runtime overhead. In this work, we propose free launch, a new software approach to overcoming the shortcomings of both methods. It allows programmers to use subkernel launches to express dynamic parallelism. It employs a novel compiler-based code transformation named subkernel launch removal to replace the subkernel launches with the reuse of parent threads. Coupled with an adaptive task assignment mechanism, the transformation reassigns the tasks in the subkernels to the parent threads with a good load balance. The technique requires no hardware extensions, immediately deployable on existing GPUs. It keeps the programming convenience of the subkernel launch-based approach while avoiding its large runtime overhead. Meanwhile, its superior load balancing makes it outperform manual worklist-based techniques by 3X on average. The work was published at the 48th Annual IEEE/ACM International Symposium on Microarchitecture (Micro'2015). A Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) system is typically equipped with many types of memory (e.g., global, constant, texture, shared, cache). Data placement determines what data are placed on which type of memory, essential for GPU memory performance. Prior optimizations of data placement always require a single view of a data object on memory, which limits the optimization effectiveness. In this work, we propose coherence-free multiview, an approach that allows multiple views of a single data object to co-exist on GPU memory during a GPU kernel execution. We demonstrate that under certain conditions, the multiple views can remain incoherent while facilitating enhanced data placement. We present a theorem and some compiler support to ensure the soundness of the usage of coherence-free multiview. We further develop reference-discerning data placement, a new way to enhance data placements on GPU. It enables more flexible data placements by using coherence-free multiview to leverage the slack in coherence requirement of some GPU programs. Experiments on three types of GPU systems show that, with less than 200KB space cost, the new data placement technique can provide a 1.6X average (up to 4.27X) speedup. In addition, we have examined algorithmic optimizations to data analytics problems, especially those that involve lots of distance calculations. Computing distances among data points is an essential part of many important algorithms in data analytics, graph analysis, and other domains. In each of these domains, developers have spent significant manual effort optimizing algorithms, often through novel applications of the triangle equality, in order to minimize the number of distance computations in the algorithms. In this work, we observe that many algorithms across these domains can be generalized as an instance of a generic distance-related abstraction. Based on this abstraction, we derive seven principles for correctly applying the triangular inequality to optimize distance-related algorithms. Guided by the findings, we develop Triangular OPtimizer (TOP), the first software framework that is able to automatically produce optimized algorithms that either matches or outperforms manually designed algorithms for solving distance-related problems. TOP achieves up to 237x speedups and 2.5X on average. The work has been published at the 32nd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML'15) and the 41st International Conference on Very Large Data Bases (VLDB'15).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analysis of Potential Leakage Pathways and Mineralization within Caprocks for Geologic Storage of CO 2

We used a multifaceted approach to investigate the nature of caprocks above, and the interface between, reservoir-quality rocks that might serve as targets for carbon storage. Fieldwork in southeastern Utah examined the regional- to m-scale nature of faults and fractures across the sedimentiological interfaces. We also used microscopic analyses and mechanical modeling to examine the question as to how the contacts between units interact, and how fractures may allow fluids to move from reservoirs to caprock. Regional-­scale analyses using ASTER data enabled us to identify location of alteration, which led to site-­specific studies of deformation and fluid flow. In the Jurassic Carmel Formation, a seal for the Navajo Sandstone, we evaluated mesoscale variability in fracture density and morphology and variability in elastic moduli in the Jurassic Carmel Formation, a proposed seal to the underlying Navajo Sandstone for CO 2 geosequestration. By combining mechano-stratigraphic outcrop observations with elastic moduli derived from wireline log data, we characterize the variability in fracture pattern and morphology with the observed variability in rock strength within this heterolithic top seal. Outcrop inventories of discontinuities show fracture densities decrease as bed thickness increases and fracture propagation morphology across lithologic interfaces vary with changing interface type. Dynamic elastic moduli, calculated from wireline log data, show that Young’s modulus varies by up to 40 GPa across depositional interfaces, and by an average of 3 GPa across the reservoir/seal interface. We expect that the mesoscale changes in rock strength will affect the distributions of localized stress and thereby influence fracture propagation and fluid flow behavior within the seal. These data provide a means to closely tie outcrop observations to those derived from subsurface data and estimates of subsurface rock strength. We also studied damage zones associated normal faults in the Permian Cedar Mesa Sandstone, southeastern Utah. These faults are characterized by a single slip surfaces and damage zones containing deformation bands, veins, and joints. Field observations include crosscutting relationships, permeability increase, rock strength decrease, and ultraviolet light induced mineral fluorescence within the damage zone. These field observations combined with the interpreted paragenetic sequence from petrographic analysis, suggests a deformation history of reactivation and several mineralization events in an otherwise low-permeability fault. All deformation bands and veins fluoresce under ultraviolet light, suggesting connectivity and a shared mineralization history. Pre-­existing deformation features act as loci for younger deformation and mineralization events, this fault and its damage zone illustrate the importance of the fault damage zone to subsurface fluid flow. We model a simplified stress history in order to understand the importance of rock properties and magnitude of tectonic stress on the deformation features within the damage zone. The moderate confining pressures, possible variations in pore pressure, and the porous, fine-­grained nature of the Cedar Mesa Sandstone results in a fault damage zone characterized by enhanced permeability, subsurface fluid flow, and mineralization. Structural setting greatly influences fracture spacing and orientation. Three structural settings were examined and include fault proximity, a fold limb of constant dip, and a setting proximal to the syncline hinge. Fracture spacing and dominant fracture orientation vary at each setting and distinctions between regional and local paleo-stress directions can be made. Joints on the fold limb strike normal to the fold axis/bedding and are interpreted to be sub-parallel to the maximum regional paleo-stress direction as there is no fold related strain. Joints proximal to faults and the syncline hinge may have formed under local stress conditions associated with folding and faulting, and in some cases, are perpendicular to the maximum regional paleo-stress direction. Macroscale analyses of the Iron Wash fault, which cuts most of the stratigraphy of the reservoir- seal analogs, reveals that seal bypass occurs along faults with mixed lithologic composition. While portions of the fault may be effective seals, when modeled as a whole the fault zone cannot support a high CO 2 column. We adapted oil-field methods to calculate column heights and sealing capacities. Examination of the burial and tectonic histories of the rocks, coupled with field- and micro-­scale studies, allow us to examine the potential for seal failure using basic rock mechanics failure analyses. These studies reveal that the sealing lithologies experienced multiple episodes of deformation that resulted in numerous fractures and small faults. In a stress state based on burial history and overburden loads, we show that most of the seals could fail with normal to slightly excess pore pressures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Monitoring Airspace Complexity and Determining Contributing Factors

The national airspace has evolved over many years to accommodate increased traffic demand [1] while simultaneously maintaining one of the safest forms of transportation [2], [3]. One of the reasons for this success is the ability of the system and the operators to adapt and accommodate to situations that routinely disrupt optimal operations. These situations may include: adverse weather, delays, early arrivals, equipment outages, and other factors that are outside the operators ability to control. These factors can lead to states where automation is unable to properly handle these issues and therefore air traffic controllers and pilots have to intervene, ultimately increasing communication between operators resulting in higher workload. As controller workload increases to handle sub-optimal operating conditions this can be viewed as an increase in complexity. The reasoning for this is because humans are now required to make tactical decisions in response to external factors, resulting in a departure from the strategic plan where operations would be more efficiently managed. Human operators control airspace complexity under rigid regulations that are constantly changing. The airspace is divided into sectors and the number of aircraft assigned to each controller is limited for safe handling. There has been past work that devised airspace complexity metrics in commercial aviation and related these metrics to controller workload (e.g., [4],[5]). The upper bounds on the system load are pre-determined. Such bounds on complexity make for a safe system, but the system cannot scale and adapt to autonomous, dense, and heterogeneous traffic, including the many types of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) envisioned to be added to the operations. We hypothesize that, as traffic density and heterogeneity grow, and other key metrics change, there will be phase transitions at which the way traffic should be managed changes significantly [6]. We offer a method for in-time detection of contributing factors that lead to phase transitions, characterized by increased complexity. To the best of our knowledge, there is no tool similar to our proposed effort that identifies such contributing factors or precursor patterns. To define the scope we are proposing to measure complexity from the viewpoint of the Terminal Radar Approach Control Facilities (TRACON) controller’s perspective. In particular we are analyzing arrivals into KSFO. With safety as the top concern for airspace operators, it is important to recognize that as density and heterogeneity grow, the focus of the system will change. Times of the day when the airspace has low density and heterogeneity, the flights will follow more efficient paths where the aircraft move on established routes that are more or less directly to the destination. However, when density and heterogeneity increases, the system will begin changing focus to avoiding conflicts and collisions and route the flights in a more flexible way. Higher flexibility requires more communication and coordination between controllers and pilots which the current automation is unable to handle. This paper proposes a novel approach that monitors airspace complexity at multiple scales, uses a Machine Learning-based tool that predicts when operations will transition to a regime of greater complexity, and identifies actions that can reduce the complexity while still maintaining efficient and safe operations. We demonstrate our proposed approach using data from multiple complementary sources. This includes, but is not limited to: historical aircraft surveillance data from NASA’s Sherlock Data Warehouse [7], METAR weather data, and airport configuration data from Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM). The surveillance data flight paths are sampled at a variable sample rate — increasing as the aircraft approaches the airport. This is due to how Sherlock manages flight track stitching between different radar facilities which have different sampling rates. The weather and performance data are logged at defined intervals throughout the day at a courser refresh rate. In addition to the logged data and metrics, we leverage pre-defined Standard Terminal Arrival Routes (STARs) procedures to characterize the path of each flight. Each flight files for one of these routes in the flight plan well before entering the terminal airspace, and approximately follows the route until it leaves the STAR, typically on the final fix of a runway transition. However, most flights do not always fly the full STAR procedure to completion [8], but the majority do adhere to the fixes within the common route of the procedure. Our approach leverages fixes in the common route of each of the STARs to build a reference path to the airport. This allows us to characterize the flight paths in what we are defining as the “maneuvering area” (the airspace between the STAR and before the flight is lined up on the runway’s final approach) to determine how off nominal the flights are to calculate its complexity score. Determining airspace complexity is a concept that does not have a concrete answer. In designing this metric, we consider what increases the workload for the air traffic controllers. Consequently more specialized vectoring maneuvers results in higher workload. Accordingly, we start with a theory: each flight has a direct path it takes from the STAR’s common route to the final approach’s outer marker fix for the flight’s landing runway. It is important to note that the direct path is only used as a reference. If the majority of the flights have a large consistent offset as compared to other routes it does not necessarily mean that those flights have higher complexity. We are merely building a distribution based on this direct path for that particular STAR and runway pair to determine the normal mode of operations for that route. Flights that are in the upper tail of these distributions will result in higher complexity scores and flights that fly in the median will represent the normal mode of operations and therefore will have lower complexity scores. Since flights following each STAR route take different paths to the airport, we have a different distribution for each STAR route and therefore can model these distributions to compute a complexity score from their respective normalized distributions. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed airspace complexity metric we will compare against an established approach based on trajectory clustering [9]. This unsupervised learning technique consists of the following steps: (1) identify the general maneuvering areas (waypoints) by performing $\kappa$-means or DBSCAN clustering on locations where aircraft frequently turn based on the surveillance radar track data, (2) map flight trajectories onto sequences of waypoints, and (3) cluster the sequences based on their common subsequences. From a high-level perspective, this baseline model learns nominal operations in the airspace through the sequence of waypoints that are representative of where aircraft change direction and defines deviations from the nominal operations as “complex.” Therefore, more deviations from the nominal operations correspond to higher complexity values. For our validation, we re-implemented this technique and tune model hyper-parameters to correctly detect waypoints for the arrival traffic into the San Francisco bay area. We will compute the complexity measure over a one-year period using our proposed technique as well as the baseline. Our validation will be based on each technique’s ability to detect a set of undesirable outcomes (e.g., go-arounds, holding patterns, average time in the airspace, etc.). Since our current complexity metric is derived from the offset from the direct reference path, it’s important to understand what causes these offsets. In many of the flights with high offset distance, flights performing holding patterns and S turns can be observed. These maneuvering tactics are utilized to add distance between the aircraft and the destination runway to prevent multiple flights from having conflicting arrival times. In order to predict a rise in complexity (or the precursor to complexity), it’s necessary to be able to identify these potential conflicts (which in turn, result in higher offsets). To do this, we define a “representative flight” for each STAR route and runway pair. This flight is approximately the path the flight would take if there was a clear path with no other flights in the airspace — including the time remaining to the airport. We first identify the flights for a given STAR runway pair using the offset to the reference path distributions that fall between the 44-55 percentiles. This yields the flights that conform to the most normal mode of operation. Each of these flights is partitioned based on the percent complete from the entry point into the maneuvering areas from 0\% – 100\% complete. Then for each percent “bin”, we take the median value of the flight’s latitude/longitude coordinates, airspeed, and (non causal) time remaining to the airport to construct a lookup table for each percent complete bin on a given route. As a flight enters the maneuvering area, we can find the estimated arrival time of a flight to the airport by finding the closest point to the representative path’s percent complete bin (relative to the flight’s current position at any snapshot in the airspace) and therefore retrieve the corresponding remaining time left on the “representative path”. We assume that the flight will follow the representative path to completion when deriving these estimates. We can then compare these estimated arrival times against other flights for the same snapshot in time to identify potential conflicts. If more flights are estimated to arrive within a tolerance window than there are runways available, then we have a potential conflict. We can use this derived measure along with other factors expected to add disruption to the operation such as weather and runway configuration changes as an input to machine learning tools to detect precursors that increases in our complexity measure. This novel method will assist in uncovering insights into the contributing factors that lead to increased complexity that may allow for in-time responses to avoid reaching a high complexity state in the airspace.

complexity↗