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NASA NTRS2016

The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850 CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium. An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records. Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the "amount effect". During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is larger than the rather weak and spatially less coherent precipitation signal, complicating the isotopic response to changes in the hydrologic cycle.

Colose, Christopher M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Interactive MATLAB Program for Fitting Transfer Functions to Frequency Responses

A computer program called FRFit (Frequency Response Fitting) is described for fitting single-input single-output transfer function models to empirical frequency response data. The program is interactive in that the user specifies ``elementary factors'' (gain, delay, pure differentiators and integrators, and first- and second-order zeros and poles) by entering numerical values or moving sliders in a graphical user interface. A nonlinear optimization can then be performed to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of transfer function parameters and uncertainties to provide feedback on the modeling and refine estimates. Several examples are discussed, including the identification of aircraft pitch dynamics from simulation data and data reported in the literature, approximating Theodorsen's function of unsteady aerodynamics, and obtaining a reduced-order model of a computational fluid dynamics code describing the unsteady aerodynamics around an aeroelastic wing. The program has some usefulness as a teaching aid, and can be applied to model structure determination, reduced-order modeling, preliminary analysis, and simple system identification problems. The program was written in MATLAB and is planned for public release through the NASA Software Catalog.

System identification↗

NASA NTRS2020

Damage Accelerates Ice Shelf Instability and Mass Loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment

Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in West Antarctica with large consequences for global sea level. Yet, assessing how much and how fast both glaciers will weaken if these changes continue remains a major uncertainty as many of the processes that control their ice shelf weakening and grounding line retreat are not well understood. Here, we combine multisource satellite imagery with modeling to uncover the rapid development of damage areas in the shear zones of Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas consist of highly crevassed areas and open fractures and are first signs that the shear zones of both ice shelves have structurally weakened over the past decade. Idealized model results reveal moreover that the damage initiates a feedback process where initial ice shelf weakening triggers the development of damage in their shear zones, which results in further speedup, shearing, and weakening, hence promoting additional damage development. This damage feedback potentially preconditions these ice shelves for disintegration and enhances grounding line retreat. The results of this study suggest that damage feedback processes are key to future ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections.

glaciology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrated Modeling for Payload Test of the Roman Space Telescope

The Nancy Grace Roman Telescope (RST) is a NASA observatory designed to unravel the secrets of dark energy and dark matter, search for and image exoplanets, and explore many topics in infrared optics. Scheduled to launch in no earlier than October 2026, this 2.4 meter aperture telescope has a field of view 100 times greater than the Hubble Space Telescope. The mission is currently in its construction phase, where integrated modeling between thermal, structural, and optical models of the observatory is necessary to demonstrate science quality images over the range of operational parameters. This presentation discusses the most recent integrated modeling analysis cycle for Roman, including model correlation with our instrument level testing. We include a discussion on improved processes of the handling of the various flows of data between the modeling disciplines and discipline specific monte-carlo analysis predictions. We will finish with the predicted uncertainties and expected performance for our upcoming observatory alignment verification test using machine learning algorithms.

telescope↗

NASA NTRS2024

Simulated Feasibility of 3D Lightning Mapping from Space

In addition to the awe it inspires, lightning can illuminate the microphysical processes hidden away within deep convection. The current generation of space-based lightning mapping uses mostly 2D optical imaging to connect overall flash characteristics to their parent storm dynamics, but are missing a dimension’s worth of information. With lightning now classified as an essential climate variable, future spaceborne mappers will need improved capabilities to take advantage of the 3D structure of lightning flashes to support meteorological and climate modeling. We report here on a study of the feasibility of implementing a radio frequency (RF)–based network of satellites for 3D lightning mapping in high resolution from low Earth orbit (LEO). Lightning sources are simulated using existing tools of the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), modified for orbital detection, and spatially reconstructed using a Levenberg-Marquardt geolocation algorithm to assess sources of uncertainty in these solutions. We analyze the benefits and limitations of this approach compared to existing orbital and ground-based methods. Results of this study show that lightning can be mapped in 3D with a vertical location accuracy better than 2 km using as few as five satellites in LEO capable of measuring the time-of-arrival of impulsive RF signals in the very high frequency (VHF) band. The consequence of this study is that high-resolution, spaceborne 3D mapping of lightning is achievable across most of the globe, having crucial implications for our understanding of not only lightning, but also severe weather development, climate science, and more.

CubeSpark↗

NASA NTRS2014

Concepts to Support HRP Integration Using Publications and Modeling

Initial efforts are underway to enhance the Human Research Program (HRP)'s identification and support of potential cross-disciplinary scientific collaborations. To increase the emphasis on integration in HRP's science portfolio management, concepts are being explored through the development of a set of tools. These tools are intended to enable modeling, analysis, and visualization of the state of the human system in the spaceflight environment; HRP's current understanding of that state with an indication of uncertainties; and how that state changes due to HRP programmatic progress and design reference mission definitions. In this talk, we will discuss proof-of-concept work performed using a subset of publications captured in the HRP publications database. The publications were tagged in the database with words representing factors influencing health and performance in spaceflight, as well as with words representing the risks HRP research is reducing. Analysis was performed on the publication tag data to identify relationships between factors and between risks. Network representations were then created as one type of visualization of these relationships. This enables future analyses of the structure of the networks based on results from network theory. Such analyses can provide insights into HRP's current human system knowledge state as informed by the publication data. The network structure analyses can also elucidate potential improvements by identifying network connections to establish or strengthen for maximized information flow. The relationships identified in the publication data were subsequently used as inputs to a model captured in the Systems Modeling Language (SysML), which functions as a repository for relationship information to be gleaned from multiple sources. Example network visualization outputs from a simple SysML model were then also created to compare to the visualizations based on the publication data only. We will also discuss ideas for building upon this proof-of-concept work to further support an integrated approach to human spaceflight risk reduction.

Mindock, J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

HST Multicolor (255-1042 nm) Photometry of Saturn's Main Rings: Radial Profiles, Phase and Opening Angle Variations, and Regional Spectra - 1

The main rings of Saturn were observed with the Planetary Camera of the WFPC2 instrument on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) from September 1996 to August 2000 as the'ring opening angle to Earth and Sun increased from 4 deg to 24 deg, with a spread of phase angles between 0.3 deg and 6 deg at each opening angle. The rings were routinely observed in the five HST wideband UBVRI filters (F336W, F439W, F555W, F675W, and F814W) and occasionally in the F255W, F785LP, and F1042M filters. The emphasis in this series of papers will be on radial color (implying compositional) variations. In this first paper we describe the analysis technique and calibration procedure, note revisions in a previously published Voyager ring color data analysis, and present new results based on over 100 HST images. In the 300-600 nm spectral range where the rings are red, the 555nm/336nm ratio increases by about 14% as the phase angle increases from 0.3 deg to 6 deg. This effect, never reported previously for the rings, is significantly larger than the phase reddening which characterizes other icy objects, primarily because of the redness of the rings. However, there is no discernible tendency for color to vary with ring opening angle at a given phase angle, and there is no phase variation of color where the spectrum is flat. We infer from this combination of facts that multiple intraparticle scattering, either in a regolith or between facets of an unusually rough surface, is important in these geometries, but that multiple interparticle scattering in a vertically extended layer is not. Voyager color ratios at a phase angle of 14 deg are compatible with this trend, but calibration uncertainties prevent their use in quantitative modeling. Overall ring-average spectra are compatible with those of earlier work within calibration uncertainties, but ring spectra vary noticeably with region. We refine and subdivide the regions previously defined by others. The variation seen between radial profiles of ratios between different wavelength suggests the presence of multiple compositional components with different radial distributions. We present new radial profiles of far UV color ratio (F336W/F255W) showing, substantial global variations having a different radial structure than seen between 555 and 336nm. We also find evidence for absorption in the 850nm spectral range (a feature previously only weakly indicated in ring-averaged spectra) primarily through its radial variation; it is located primarily in the C ring, where the particles are known to have lower albedo, and is consistent with "interplanetary pollution" of the rings.

Cuzzi, Jeffrey N.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Lateral-Directional Parameter Estimation on the X-48B Aircraft Using an Abstracted, Multi-Objective Effector Model

The problem of parameter estimation on hybrid-wing-body aircraft is complicated by the fact that many design candidates for such aircraft involve a large number of aerodynamic control effectors that act in coplanar motion. This adds to the complexity already present in the parameter estimation problem for any aircraft with a closed-loop control system. Decorrelation of flight and simulation data must be performed in order to ascertain individual surface derivatives with any sort of mathematical confidence. Non-standard control surface configurations, such as clamshell surfaces and drag-rudder modes, further complicate the modeling task. In this paper, time-decorrelation techniques are applied to a model structure selected through stepwise regression for simulated and flight-generated lateral-directional parameter estimation data. A virtual effector model that uses mathematical abstractions to describe the multi-axis effects of clamshell surfaces is developed and applied. Comparisons are made between time history reconstructions and observed data in order to assess the accuracy of the regression model. The Cram r-Rao lower bounds of the estimated parameters are used to assess the uncertainty of the regression model relative to alternative models. Stepwise regression was found to be a useful technique for lateral-directional model design for hybrid-wing-body aircraft, as suggested by available flight data. Based on the results of this study, linear regression parameter estimation methods using abstracted effectors are expected to perform well for hybrid-wing-body aircraft properly equipped for the task.

Ratnayake, Nalin A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗

NASA NTRS1993

Retrieval of temperature profiles from Martian infrared spectra

In theory, a thermal emission spectrum of Mars (220-1600 cm(exp -1)) contains a wealth of information about the composition and thermal structure of the atmosphere and surface. However, in practice, the ability to retrieve quantitative information from the spectrum is limited by a number of factors including (1) the ill-posed nature of the spectral inversion problem and the resulting nonuniqueness of all solutions; (2) assumptions built into any spectral inversion program; (3) uncertainties in surface pressure, temperature, and emissivity; and (4) uncertainties in the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols. Below, factors (1) and (2) are discussed as fundamental limitations on temperature retrievals from Mariner 9 Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) spectra. In preparation for the Mars Observer mission and the return of tens of thousands of infrared spectra per day from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES), we have developed a fast inversion algorithm to retrieve temperature structure and aerosol opacity from the infrared spectra. The derived atmospheric models will be used to provide the atmospheric contribution to the TES spectra, so that the thermal emission spectra of the underlying surface can be determined for making mineralogical identifications. As a test of our algorithm, we are undertaking a systematic analysis of the entire Mariner 9 Infrared Interferometric Spectrometer (IRIS) dataset of 21,000 plus spectra. While portions of the IRIS dataset have been previously analyzed, the lack of a speedy and robust algorithm to invert the IRIS spectra to retrieve temperature profiles and aerosol opacities has been a major impediment to a truly comprehensive analysis.

Mcmillan, W. Wallace↗

NASA NTRS1995

Proper Motion of Components in 4C 39.25

From a series of simultaneous 8.4 and 2.3 GHz VLBI observations of the quasar 4C 39.25 phase referenced to the radio source 0920+390, carried out in 1990-1992, we have measured the proper motion of component b in 4C 39.25: mu(sub alpha) = 90 +/- 43 (mu)as/yr, mu(sub beta) = 7 +/- 68 (mu)as/yr, where the quoted uncertainties account for the contribution of the statistical standard deviation and the errors assumed for the parameters related to the geometry of the interferometric array, the atmosphere, and the source structure. This proper motion is consistent with earlier interpretations of VLBI hybrid mapping results, which showed an internal motion of this component with respect to other structural components. Our differential astrometry analyses show component b to be the one in motion. Our results thus further constrain models of this quasar.

Guirado, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Towards a Decision Support System for Space Flight Operations

The Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has put in place a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) technological framework for the development and execution of the Flight Production Process (FPP). This framework has provided much added value and return on investment to date. This paper describes a vision for a model based Decision Support System (DSS) for the development and execution of the FPP and its design and development process. The envisioned system extends the existing MBSE methodology and technological framework which is currently in use. The MBSE technological framework currently in place enables the systematic collection and integration of data required for building an FPP model for a diverse set of missions. This framework includes the technology, people and processes required for rapid development of architectural artifacts. It is used to build a feasible FPP model for the first flight of spacecraft and for recurrent flights throughout the life of the program. This model greatly enhances our ability to effectively engage with a new customer. It provides a preliminary work breakdown structure, data flow information and a master schedule based on its existing knowledge base. These artifacts are then refined and iterated upon with the customer for the development of a robust end-to-end, high-level integrated master schedule and its associated dependencies. The vision is to enhance this framework to enable its application for uncertainty management, decision support and optimization of the design and execution of the FPP by the program. Furthermore, this enhanced framework will enable the agile response and redesign of the FPP based on observed system behavior. The discrepancy of the anticipated system behavior and the observed behavior may be due to the processing of tasks internally, or due to external factors such as changes in program requirements or conditions associated with other organizations that are outside of MOD. The paper provides a roadmap for the three increments of this vision. These increments include (1) hardware and software system components and interfaces with the NASA ground system, (2) uncertainty management and (3) re-planning and automated execution. Each of these increments provide value independently; but some may also enable building of a subsequent increment.

Meshkat, Leila↗

NASA NTRS2013

Towards a decision support system for space flight operations

The Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has put in place a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) technological framework for the development and execution of the Flight Production Process (FPP). This framework has provided much added value and return on investment to date. This paper describes a vision for a model based Decision Support System (DSS) for the development and execution of the FPP and its design and development process. The envisioned system extends the existing MBSE methodology and technological framework which is currently in use. The MBSE technological framework currently in place enables the systematic collection and integration of data required for building an FPP model for a diverse set of missions. This framework includes the technology, people and processes required for rapid development of architectural artifacts. It is used to build a feasible FPP model for the first flight of spacecraft and for recurrent flights throughout the life of the program. This model greatly enhances our ability to effectively engage with a new customer. It provides a preliminary work breakdown structure, data flow information and a master schedule based on its existing knowledge base. These artifacts are then refined and iterated upon with the customer for the development of a robust end-to-end, high-level integrated master schedule and its associated dependencies. The vision is to enhance this framework to enable its application for uncertainty management, decision support and optimization of the design and execution of the FPP by the program. Furthermore, this enhanced framework will enable the agile response and redesign of the FPP based on observed system behavior. The differences between the anticipated system behavior and the observed behavior may be due to the processing of tasks internally, or due to external factors such as changes in program requirements or conditions associated with other organizations that are outside of MOD. The paper provides a roadmap for the four increments of this vision. These increments include (1) the existing capabilities (2) hardware and software system components and interfaces with the NASA ground system, (3) uncertainty management and (4) re-planning and automated execution. Each of these increments provides value independently; but some may also enable building of a subsequent increment.

Ruszkowski, James↗

NASA NTRS1990

Fatigue crack propagation in aerospace aluminum alloys

This paper reviews fracture mechanics based, damage tolerant characterizations and predictions of fatigue crack growth in aerospace aluminum alloys. The results of laboratory experimentation and modeling are summarized in the areas of: (1) fatigue crack closure, (2) the wide range crack growth rate response of conventional aluminum alloys, (3) the fatigue behavior of advanced monolithic aluminum alloys and metal matrix composites, (4) the short crack problem, (5) environmental fatigue, and (6) variable amplitude loading. Remaining uncertainties and necessary research are identified. This work provides a foundation for the development of fatigue resistant alloys and composites, next generation life prediction codes for new structural designs and extreme environments, and to counter the problem of aging components.

Gangloff, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Automation life-cycle cost model

The problem domain being addressed by this contractual effort can be summarized by the following list: Automation and Robotics (A&R) technologies appear to be viable alternatives to current, manual operations; Life-cycle cost models are typically judged with suspicion due to implicit assumptions and little associated documentation; and Uncertainty is a reality for increasingly complex problems and few models explicitly account for its affect on the solution space. The objectives for this effort range from the near-term (1-2 years) to far-term (3-5 years). In the near-term, the envisioned capabilities of the modeling tool are annotated. In addition, a framework is defined and developed in the Decision Modelling System (DEMOS) environment. Our approach is summarized as follows: Assess desirable capabilities (structure into near- and far-term); Identify useful existing models/data; Identify parameters for utility analysis; Define tool framework; Encode scenario thread for model validation; and Provide transition path for tool development. This report contains all relevant, technical progress made on this contractual effort.

Gathmann, Thomas P.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Scale-Free Networks and Commercial Air Carrier Transportation in the United States

Network science, or the art of describing system structure, may be useful for the analysis and control of large, complex systems. For example, networks exhibiting scale-free structure have been found to be particularly well suited to deal with environmental uncertainty and large demand growth. The National Airspace System may be, at least in part, a scalable network. In fact, the hub-and-spoke structure of the commercial segment of the NAS is an often-cited example of an existing scale-free network After reviewing the nature and attributes of scale-free networks, this assertion is put to the test: is commercial air carrier transportation in the United States well explained by this model? If so, are the positive attributes of these networks, e.g. those of efficiency, flexibility and robustness, fully realized, or could we effect substantial improvement? This paper first outlines attributes of various network types, then looks more closely at the common carrier air transportation network from perspectives of the traveler, the airlines, and Air Traffic Control (ATC). Network models are applied within each paradigm, including discussion of implied strengths and weaknesses of each model. Finally, known limitations of scalable networks are discussed. With an eye towards NAS operations, utilizing the strengths and avoiding the weaknesses of scale-free networks are addressed.

Conway, Sheila R.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Building a standardized Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework for Mars

We advocate that the Decadal Survey recommends the NASA Science Mission Directorate to develop a rigorous Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework for Mars, to optimize future atmospheric observations. Atmospheric conditions on Mars are a potential hazard source for landing missions. Errors in the estimates of atmospheric density profiles, inadequate knowledge of wind vertical structure and dust concentration as a function of height are likely causes of uncertainty at the landing site on the order of kilometers. An operational real-time weather forecasting capability for Mars would reduce such uncertainties, carrying enormous benefits to future robotic missions, and would be an invaluable prerequisite for human missions.A real-time forecasting capability relies upon three fundamental components: a critical mass of observing systems, a data assimilation system (DAS), and a global forecast model. The DAS allows the model to ingest the data effectively, optimizing the observational information content,and transforming them into a gridded representation of the atmosphere at a given time, called an ‘analysis’. The analysis is the best estimate of the atmospheric state for that time, and also represents a set of ‘initial conditions’ from which a global model can be initialized, to predict a future state of the atmosphere. The connection between analysis and forecast represents the foundation of modern weather forecasting. However, from the point of view of a forecast system,not all observations are equally impactful, partially because of the problem of “observational error correlation”, one important research topic in data assimilation development. For the Earth, partly due to the spontaneous and deregulated development of observations and forecast capabilities worldwide for more than half a century,the use of observations in contemporary operational forecast systems is suboptimal, with many potentially useful data being underutilized. On the contrary, Mars atmospheric scientists are in the unique situation of designing the next-generation observing systems by learning from the experience gathered on the Earth, so as to assure that the future instruments are specifically optimized to give the maximum benefit to a future weather forecast capability.An immensely powerful tool that has been firmly established by atmospheric scientists on the Earth is represented by a properly designed OSSE framework. A realistic OSSE framework cannot only quantify the benefit of future data types, be them surface based or space borne, but can also help design and optimize an entire observational network. Furthermore, OSSEs can provide deep insights into an atmosphere’s behavior, by addressing conceptual problems of its intrinsic predictability and delineating the regions or features of the atmosphere which are more sensitive to additional data and would benefit from a denser sampling. The difficulties posed by OSSEs are fundamentally different for Earth and Mars. For Earth, the enormous data volume imposes a tremendous constraint on any innovation in the observing systems: it is very hard for a single sensor to impact the skill. For Mars, the problem is the opposite: almost any additional instrument will exert some impact. However, OSSEs can help to evaluate the cost/benefit for every sensor and suggest optimal data configuration and density.The purpose of this white paper is to provide an introduction to a rigorously designed OSSE framework, explain the underlying problems and challenges, and engage the Mars community to collaborate with Earth Atmospheric scientists in order to develop a joint-OSSE framework for Mars with the largest consensual basis possible. An OSSE infrastructure would increase the understanding of the Martian atmosphere, would help NASA to optimize instrument specifications and orbit choice, providing the maximium benefit for a given expenditure of resources, and could even help establishing a roadmap for a future real-time weather forecasting capability.

Oreste Reale↗

NASA NTRS1979

Oceanic geoid and tides derived from GEOS 3 satellite data in the Northwestern Atlantic Ocean

Two sets of GEOS 3 altimeter data which fall within about a 2.5-deg width are analyzed for ocean geoid and tides. One set covers a path from Newfoundland to Cuba, and the other a path from Puerto Rico to the North Carolina coast. Forty different analyses using various parameters are performed in order to investigate convergence. Profiles of the geoid and four tides, M2, O1, S2, and K1, are derived along the two strips. While the analyses produced convergent solutions for all 40 cases, the uncertainty caused by the linear orbital bias error of the satellite is too large to claim that the solutions represent the true ocean tides in the area. A spot check of the result with the Mode deep-sea tide gauge data shows poor agreement. A positive conclusion of this study is that despite the uncertain orbital error the oceanic geoid obtained through this analysis can improve significantly the short-wavelength structure over existing spherical harmonic geoid models.

Won, I. J.↗