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At least 559 records · Page 31

Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty of climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

In this article, a research strategy for improving the estimates of the clear sky forcing is defined. The strategy encompasses five major, and necessarily coordinated, activities: surface-based observations of aerosol chemical and physical properties and their influence on the radiation field; aircraft-based observations of the same properties; process studies to refine model treatments; satellite observations of aerosol abundance and size distribution; and modeling studies to demonstrate consistency between the observations, to provide guidance for determination of the most important parameters, and to allow extension of the limited set of observations to the global scale. Such a strategy, if aggressively implemented, should allow these effects to be incorporated into climate models in the next several years. A similar strategy for defining the magnitude of the cloudy sky forcing should also be possible, but the less firm understanding of this forcing suggests that research of a more exploratory nature be carried out before undertaking a research strategy of the magnitude recommended for the clear sky forcing.

Penner, J. E.↗

MODEL CORRELATION STUDY OF A RETRACTABLE BOOM FOR A SOLAR SAIL SPACECRAFT

To realize design concepts, predict dynamic behavior and develop appropriate control strategies for high performance operation of a solar-sail spacecraft, we developed a simple analytical model that represents dynamic behavior of spacecraft with various sizes. Since motion of the vehicle is dominated by retractable booms that support the structure, our study concentrates on developing and validating a dynamic model of a long retractable boom. Extensive tests with various configurations were conducted for the 30 Meter, light-weight, retractable, lattice boom at NASA MSFC that is structurally and dynamically similar to those of a solar-sail spacecraft currently under construction. Experimental data were then compared with the corresponding response of the analytical model. Though mixed results were obtained, the analytical model emulates several key characteristics of the boom. The paper concludes with a detailed discussion of issues observed during the study.

Adetona, O.↗

Effects of sounding temperature assimilation on weather forecasting - Model dependence studies

In comparing various methods for the assimilation of remote sounding information into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the problem of model dependence for the different results obtained becomes important. The paper investigates two aspects of the model dependence question: (1) the effect of increasing horizontal resolution within a given model on the assimilation of sounding data, and (2) the effect of using two entirely different models with the same assimilation method and sounding data. Tentative conclusions reached are: first, that model improvement as exemplified by increased resolution, can act in the same direction as judicious 4-D assimilation of remote sounding information, to improve 2-3 day numerical weather forecasts. Second, that the time continuous 4-D methods developed at GLAS have similar beneficial effects when used in the assimilation of remote sounding information into NWP models with very different numerical and physical characteristics.

Ghil, M.↗

Computational Study of Modeling Fully-Coupled Combustor-Turbine Interactions by the Open National Combustion Code (OpenNCC)

In this study, preliminary results are presented from the Open National Combustion Code (OpenNCC) applied to the two-stage high-pressure turbine (HTP) from the energy efficient engine (E3) program. Although the combustor is designed for efficient fuel–air mixing and a relatively uniform exit temperature profile, temporal and spatial variation in combustor exit conditions inevitably lead to hot-streaks in the HPT. These hot streaks can cause local hot spots on the HPT blade surfaces that reduce blade life. To improve understanding of these effects and the overall design of combustor and HPT, we proposed a sequential approach: Step 1 (combustor _ 1st stage stator), Step 2 (HPT) and Step 3 (fully-coupled EEE combustor/HPT). In this presentation, we would like to discuss the recent numerical results at two different operating conditions: the simulated Sea-Level Take-off (SLTO) condition (P41 = 2.4 [atm]) and a more realistic SLTO (P41 = 27.4 [atm])).

LES↗

Imperfection-sensitivity in the plastic range

The effect of small imperfections on the buckling of continuous structures loaded into the plastic range is studied. A simple model study is presented and several additional examples are discussed. The role of the load at which elastic unloading first occurs is emphasized, and a general asymptotic analysis is given for the behavior prior to the onset of elastic unloading for a class of elastic-plastic solids subject to loads characterized by a single load parameter. Asymptotic imperfection-sensitivity formulae are obtained whose features are similar to analogous formulae for elastic structures.

Hutchinson, J. W.↗

Evaluation of thermal data for geologic applications

Sensitivity studies using thermal models indicated sources of errors in the determination of thermal inertia from HCMM data. Apparent thermal inertia, with only simple atmospheric radiance corrections to the measured surface temperature, would be sufficient for most operational requirements for surface thermal inertia. Thermal data does have additional information about the nature of surface material that is not available in visible and near infrared reflectance data. Color composites of daytime temperature, nighttime temperature, and albedo were often more useful than thermal inertia images alone for discrimination of lithologic boundaries. A modeling study, using the annual heating cycle, indicated the feasibility of looking for geologic features buried under as much as a meter of alluvial material. The spatial resolution of HCMM data is a major limiting factor in the usefulness of the data for geologic applications. Future thermal infrared satellite sensors should provide spatial resolution comparable to that of the LANDSAT data.

Kahle, A. B.↗

Airborne Doppler radar flight experiments for the detection of microbursts

In the interest of aviation safety, NASA and the FAA are jointly conducting research to determine the applicability of airborne, coherent Doppler radar techniques to detect early microburst in wind shear conditions during aircraft takeoff and landing. Researchers have developed a computer model of the radar which predicts its response when viewing a simulated microburst against the simulated clutter background of an airport, the so-called radar microburst ground clutter model. Studies employing this model revealed that Doppler radar can accurately detect microburst ahead of the aircraft in time for pilot evasive response, but flight experiments will be required for complete performance evaluation of the system. An experimental X band radar is being developed for future flight experiments to verify the simulation modeling results. A description of the experimental radar, recording equipment, and its installation on the NASA 515 aircraft is presented. The flight experiments to be conducted are also described.

Blume, Hans-J. C.↗

Review of model sensor studies on Pd/SnO2(110) surfaces

Studies performed at the National Institute of Standards and Technology on the model gas sensor system, Pd/SnO2(110), are reviewed. Adsorption and interfacial effects play a primary role in the gas sensing process, as they do in catalysis. For this reason, researchers have used a variety of surface sensitive techniques in the research, including x ray and ultraviolet photoelectron spectroscopies (XPS and UPS), low energy electron diffraction (LEED), and ion scattering spectroscopy (ISS). By combining these complementary techniques with in situ gas response (conductance) measurements, researchers were able to correlate directly sensor activity with the composition and structure of the Pd/SnO2 interface. Although the intent of this work is to develop an understanding of gas sensing mechanisms, its relevance to Pt/SnO2 catalytic systems is obvious.

Fryberger, Teresa B.↗

Collected software engineering papers, volume 9

This document is a collection of selected technical papers produced by participants in the Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) from November 1990 through October 1991. The purpose of the document is to make available, in one reference, some results of SEL research that originally appeared in a number of different forums. This is the ninth such volume of technical papers produced by the SEL. Although these papers cover several topics related to software engineering, they do not encompass the entire scope of SEL activities and interests. For the convenience of this presentation, the eight papers contained here are grouped into three major categories: (1) software models studies; (2) software measurement studies; and (3) Ada technology studies. The first category presents studies on reuse models, including a software reuse model applied to maintenance and a model for an organization to support software reuse. The second category includes experimental research methods and software measurement techniques. The third category presents object-oriented approaches using Ada and object-oriented features proposed for Ada. The SEL is actively working to understand and improve the software development process at GSFC.

Source record↗

Collected Software Engineering Papers, Volume 10

This document is a collection of selected technical papers produced by participants in the Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) from Oct. 1991 - Nov. 1992. The purpose of the document is to make available, in one reference, some results of SEL research that originally appeared in a number of different forums. Although these papers cover several topics related to software engineering, they do not encompass the entire scope of SEL activities and interests. Additional information about the SEL and its research efforts may be obtained from the sources listed in the bibliography at the end of this document. For the convenience of this presentation, the 11 papers contained here are grouped into 5 major sections: (1) the Software Engineering Laboratory; (2) software tools studies; (3) software models studies; (4) software measurement studies; and (5) Ada technology studies.

Source record↗

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System to Study Precipitation Processes

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA Satellite and field campaign cloud related data sets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. Also we have implemented a Land Information System (LIS that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models into the MMF. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM) This modeling system has been applied and tested its performance for two different climate scenarios, El Nino (1998) and La Nina (1999). The coupled new modeling system produced more realistic propagation and intensity of tropical rainfall systems and intraseasonal oscillations, and diurnal variation of precipitation that are very difficult to forecast using even the state-of-the-art GCMs. In this talk I will present: (1) a brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (both Microphysical and land processes) and (2) The Goddard MMF and the Major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF) and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Global Impacts of Gas-Phase Chemistry-Aerosol Interactions on Direct Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols and Ozone

We present here a first global modeling study on the influence of gas-phase chemistry/aerosol interactions on estimates of anthropogenic forcing by tropospheric O3 and aerosols. Concentrations of gas-phase species and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols in the preindustrial, present-day, and year 2100 (IPCC SRES A2) atmospheres are simulated online in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II' (GISS GCM II'). With fully coupled chemistry and aerosols, the preindustrial, presentday, and year 2100 global burdens of tropospheric ozone are predicted to be 190, 319, and 519 Tg, respectively. The burdens of sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted respectively to be 0.32. 0.18, 0.01, 0.33 Tg in preindustrial time, 1.40, 0.48, 0.23, 1.60 Tg in presentday, and 1.37, 1.97, 0.54, 3.31 Tg in year 2100. Anthropogenic O3 is predicted to have a globally and annually averaged present-day forcing of +0.22 W m(sup -2) and year 2100 forcing of +0.57 W m(sup -2) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Net anthropogenic TOA forcing by internally mixed sulfate, nitrate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosols is estimated to be virtually zero in the present-day and +0.34 W m(sup -2) in year 2100, whereas it is predicted to be -0.39 W m(sup -2) in present-day and -0.61 W m(sup -2) in year 2100 if the aerosols are externally mixed. Heterogeneous reactions are shown to be important in affecting anthropogenic forcing. When reactions of N2O5, NO3, NO2, and HO2 on aerosols are accounted for, TOA anthropogenic O3 forcing is less by 20-45% in present-day and by 20-32% in year 2100 at mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, as compared with values predicted in the absence of heterogeneous gas aerosol reactions. Mineral dust uptake of HNO3 and O3 is shown to have practically no influence on anthropogenic O3 forcing. Heterogeneous reactions of N2Os, NO3, NO2, and HO2 are predicted to have noticeable impacts on anthropogenic aerosol forcing over industrialized areas, leading to 0-2 W m(sup -2) more anthropogenic aerosol cooling in present-day and 2-8 W m(sup -2) more cooling in year 2100 in these areas as compared with forcings calculated in the absence of heterogeneous reactions. Sea salt uptake of SO2 reduces the magnitude of TOA aerosol cooling by 0.5-1 W m(sup -2) over the oceans around 60 N in the present-day and year 2100 scenarios. Near dust sources, mineral dust uptake of SO2 and HNO3 leads to less anthropogenic aerosol cooling by 0.5-1 W m(sup -2) in the present day and 1-2 W m(sup -2) in year 2100.

Liao, Hong↗

Lightning Behavior and its Dependence on Storm Kinematic and Precipitation Processes in Northern Alabama

Numerous case studies and recent modeling studies have found that various metrics of updraft intensity appear to be reasonably well correlated to lightning production in thunderstorms, particularly severe thunderstorms. Indeed, the relationship between updraft and lightning flash rate is hypothesized to be the physical connection between a lightning "jump" signature and manifestations of severe weather such as tornadic activity. This study further examines this connection using a combination of dual Doppler wind retrievals made with the UAH ARMOR dual polarimetric and KHTX WSR 88D Doppler radar pair, together with northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) data. The dual Doppler data were used to construct three dimensional wind fields and the retrieved vertical velocity fields were subsequently compared to collocated total lightning flash rates observed by the LMA. Particular attention was paid to the timing of updraft pulses relative to changes in the flash rate, with the goal of assessing impacts on warning decision lead time. Results from the analysis of severe and non severe thunderstorms in Northern Alabama will be presented including the EF 4 tornado producing supercell on 6 February 2008.

Johnson, Elsie V.↗

Actinic Flux Calculations: A Model Sensitivity Study

calculate direct and diffuse surface irradiance and actinic flux (downwelling (2p) and total (4p)) for the reference model. Sensitivity analysis has shown that the accuracy of the radiative transfer flux calculations for a unit ETS (i.e. atmospheric transmittance) together with a numerical interpolation technique for the constituents' vertical profiles is better than 1% for SZA less than 70(sub o) and wavelengths longer than 310 nm. The differences increase for shorter wavelengths and larger SZA, due to the differences in pseudo-spherical correction techniques and vertical discretetization among the codes. Our sensitivity study includes variation of ozone cross-sections, ETS spectra and the effects of wavelength shifts between vacuum and air scales. We also investigate the effects of aerosols on the spectral flux components in the UV and visible spectral regions. The "aerosol correction factors" (ACFs) were calculated at discrete wavelengths and different SZAs for each flux component (direct, diffuse, reflected) and prescribed IPMMI aerosol parameters. Finally, the sensitivity study was extended to calculation of selected photolysis rates coefficients.

Krotkov, Nickolay A.↗

Developing new pathways for energy and environmental decision-making in India: a review

Abstract India faces a dual challenge of economic development and responding to climate change. Although India’s per capita emissions are well below global average, the country is one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters. Indian policymakers and stakeholders require high-quality data and research to assess low-emissions, sustainable development strategies. Peer-reviewed literature is a key source of this information and also a key venue for conversation amongst research leaders. This paper examines the recent peer-reviewed literature on India’s 2030 and 2050 pathways. We conducted a systematic literature review to identify key quantitative national modeling studies. From the 34 studies identified, we synthesized scenario data to draw common conclusions and identify critical research gaps. The main focus was on examining the coverage and the state of information available on low-carbon pathways. Overall, we find a few scenarios that are potentially consistent with a 2070 net-zero goal, but more limited assessment of pathways to reach net-zero emissions before this date. Mitigation pathways with greater ambition are required across all energy sectors to ensure a smooth transition to net-zero emissions by or before 2070. The scenarios confirm that reducing emissions to below 2 GtCO 2 yr −1 by mid-century would necessitate significant transformations of the Indian energy sector, such as, a decrease in unabated coal power capacity, transportation modal shift, and industrial process switching. The assessment also finds substantial differences in final energy estimates reported across studies, particularly in transportation. The lack of consistency in, and transparency about underlying drivers, assumptions, and even outputs across studies points to the critical need for the sorts of coordinated, multi-model studies that have proven exceptionally valuable for decision makers in other major emitting countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bioenergy for climate change mitigation: Scale and sustainability

Many global climate change mitigation pathways presented in IPCC assessment reports rely heavily on the deployment of biomass for bioenergy, often used in conjunction with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). We review the literature on bioenergy, including the modelling of bioenergy in integrated assessment models (IAMs) and bottom-up modelling and non-modelling studies on the implications of bioenergy use. We summarise the limitations of existing modelling studies and what is known about the potential co-benefits and adverse side-effects of bioenergy systems. We find that the implications of bioenergy supply on mitigation and other sustainability criteria are context dependent and influenced by feedstock, management regime, climatic region, scale of deployment and the counterfactual land use and energy system. However, due to limitations of the existing models, and uncertainty over the future context with respect to the many variables that influence availability of biomass and land resources, it is not possible to precisely quantify the sustainability implications for different scales of bioenergy implementation. Given these uncertainties, the dependence on large-scale deployment of bioenergy in mitigation scenarios carries risks. The deployment of bioenergy technologies and the evolution of biomass supply chains at a scale that achieves significant mitigation and carbon sequestration requires integrative policies, coordinated institutions and improved governance mechanisms. As a result, bioenergy, and the use of land to produce biomass, is an essential part of many climate mitigation strategies but there are limits to its use due to trade-offs with sustainability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Parameterized Neutrino Emission Model to Study Mass Ejection in Failed Core-collapse Supernovae

Some massive stars end their lives as failed core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) and become black holes (BHs). Although in this class of phenomena the stalled supernova (SN) shock is not revived, the outer stellar envelope can still be partially ejected. This occurs because the hydrodynamic equilibrium of the star is disrupted by the gravitational mass loss of the protoneutron star (PNS) due to neutrino emission. We develop a simple parameterized model that emulates PNS evolution and its neutrino emission and use it to simulate failed CCSNe in spherical symmetry for a wide range of progenitor stars. Our model allows us to study mass ejection of failed CCSNe where the PNS collapses into a BH within ~100 ms and up to ~10 6 s. We perform failed CCSNe simulations for 262 different pre-SN progenitors and determine how the energy and mass of the ejecta depend on progenitor properties and the equation of state (EOS) of dense matter. In the case of a future failed CCSN observation, the trends obtained in our simulations can be used to place constraints on the pre-SN progenitor characteristics, the EOS, and on PNS properties at BH formation time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fourier transform infrared studies of model polar stratospheric cloud surfaces - Growth and evaporation of ice and nitric acid/ice

Fourier-transform infrared surface studies are used to probe the microphysical properties of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and ice films representative of type I and II polar stratospheric clouds (PSC). Experiments indicate that, on initial exposure to 1.8 microtorr of HNO3, a layer of ice is quantitatively converted to NAT. However, conversion of ice to NAT does not proceed indefinitely, but rather the system reaches saturation. For longer exposures or higher HNO3 pressures, NAM becomes the dominant nitric acid containing species on the surface. Evaporation studies were performed to test the feasibility of a recent denitrification mechanism. The results indicate that ice coated with 0.20 micron of NAT evaporates at a temperature of about 4 C higher than uncoated ice.

Tolbert, Margaret A.↗