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In this presentation, we compare the vector and matrix adjoint approaches to the sensitivity analysis as applied to the problem of assimilation of data.
A combined analysis merges 17,000 Deep Space Network (DSN) Very Long Baseline Interferometric (VLBI) observations with 303,000 observations from the Crustal Dynamics Project (CDP) and the International Radio Interferometric Surveying (IRIS) project. Observations from the Radio Reference Frame Development (RRFD) and Time and Earth Motion Precision Observations (TEMPO) programs through late 1990 form the DSN VLBI data set. The combined analysis yields angular coordinates of extragalactic radio sources with a precision of a few nanoradians, as compared with 5 to 10 nrad precision for coordinates derived in the past solely from DSN data. The improvement in the combined analysis is due to the new Mark III DSN data, as well as to increased statistical strength from the large volume of observations from non-DSN experiments. Such a unified analysis is made possible by recent improvements in parameter estimation software efficiency. The terrestrial reference frame is based on joint VLBI experiments using both DSN and CDP antennas, and on specifying the coordinates of VLBI antennas in a proper geocentric coordinate system by means of Global Positioning System (GPS) collocation of VLBI, LLR, and SLR (Laser Ranging) sites.
Observability of satellite state vectors, using only SST tracking data was investigated by covariance analysis under a variety of satellite and station configurations. These results indicate very precarious observability in most short arc cases. The consequences of this are large variances on many state components, such as the downrange component of the relay satellite position. To illustrate the impact of observability problems, an example is given of two distinct satellite orbit pairs generating essentially the same data arc. The physical bases for unobservability are outlined and related to proposed TDRSS configurations. Results are relevant to any mission depending upon TDRSS to determine satellite state. The required mathematical analysis and the software used is described.
The next decade will be an exciting period for solar astrophysics, as new ground- and space-based instrumentation will provide unprecedented observations of the solar atmosphere and heliosphere. The synergy between modeling effort and comprehensive analysis of observations is crucial for the understanding of the physical processes behind the observed phenomena. However, the unprecedented wealth of data on one hand, and the complexity of the physical phenomena on the other, require the development of new approaches in both data analysis and numerical modeling. In this white paper, we summarize recent numerical achievements to reproduce structure, dynamics, and observed phenomena from the photosphere to the low corona and outline challenges we expect to face for the interpretation of future observations.
Since its first measurement 20 years ago by the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO), the water (H2O) mole fraction in Titan’s stratosphere remains uncertain due to large differences between the determinations from available measurements. More particularly, the recent measurements made from the Herschel observatory (PACS (Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer) and HIFI (Heterodyne Instrument for the Far Infrared)) estimated the H2O mole fraction to be 0.023 parts per billion at 12.1 millibars. A mixing ratio of 0.14 parts per billion at 10.7 millibars was, however, retrieved from nadir spatially-resolved observations of Cassini/CIRS (Composite Infrared Spectrometer). At the same pressure level (10.7 millibars), this makes a difference of a factor of 5.5 between PACS and CIRS measurements, and this has notably prevented current models from fully constraining the oxygen flux flowing into Titan’s atmosphere. In this work, we try to understand the differences between the H2O mole fractions estimated from Herschel/PACS and Cassini/CIRS observations. The strategy for this is to 1) analyse recent disc-averaged observations of CIRS to investigate if the observation geometry could explain the previous observed differences, and 2) (re)analyse the three types of observation with the same retrieval scheme to assess if previous differences in retrieval codes/methodology could be responsible for the previous discrepancies. With this analysis, we show that using the same retrieval method better reconcile the previous measurements of these instruments. However, the addition of the disc-averaged CIRS observations, instead of confirming the consistency between the different datasets, reveals discrepancies between one of the CIRS disc-averaged set of observations and PACS measurements. This raises new questions regarding the possibility of latitudinal variations of H2O, which could be triggered by seasonal changes of the meridional circulation. As it has already been shown for nitriles and hydrocarbons, this circulation could potentially impact the latitudinal distribution of H2O through the subsidence or up- welling of air rich in H2O. The possible influence of spatial/time variations of the OH/H2O input flux in Titan’s atmosphere is also discussed. The analysis of more observations will be needed in future work to address the questions arising from this work and to improve the understanding of the sources of H2O in Titan’s atmosphere.
A summary is presented for research undertaken, physical insight gained, and new directives identified in this project. Significant enhancements for the SO2 neutral cloud model and its dissociative products (SO, O2, O, S) as well as its application to investigating the amount of SO2+ measured by the Voyager PLS instrument in the plasma torus inside of Io's orbit are discussed. New excitation rates for UV and visible emission lines were incorporated in the O and S neutral cloud models, and the very preliminary analysis of UV observations near Io acquired in 1992 by the Hubble Space telescope is discussed. Observations for O('D) 6300 A emission near Io, preliminary reduction of these observations, and an initial assessment of these observations are presented. The analysis of 1985 sodium eclipse and emission data for Io has been completed and is contained in a paper in the Appendix. A larger data set for 1987 sodium emission observations, which will provide a new base for more detailed future studies, is described. A preliminary discussion is also presented for the likely nature of neutral gas clouds for the outer three Galilean satellites.
The problem of forecasting the behavior of a complex dynamical system through analysis of observational time-series data becomes difficult when the system expresses chaotic behavior and the measurements are sparse, in both space and/or time. Despite the fact that this situation is quite typical across many fields, including numerical weather prediction, the issue of whether the available observations are "sufficient" for generating successful forecasts is still not well understood. An analysis by Whartenby et al. (2013) found that in the context of the nonlinear shallow water equations on a β plane, standard nudging techniques require observing approximately 70 % of the full set of state variables. Here we examine the same system using a method introduced by Rey et al. (2014a), which generalizes standard nudging methods to utilize time delayed measurements. Here, we show that in certain circumstances, it provides a sizable reduction in the number of observations required to construct accurate estimates and high-quality predictions. In particular, we find that this estimate of 70 % can be reduced to about 33 % using time delays, and even further if Lagrangian drifter locations are also used as measurements.
We present GALARIO, a computational library that exploits the power of modern graphical processing units (GPUs) to accelerate the analysis of observations from radio interferometers like Atacama Large Millimeter and sub-millimeter Array or the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array. GALARIO speeds up the computation of synthetic visibilities from a generic 2D model image or a radial brightness profile (for axisymmetric sources). On a GPU, GALARIO is 150 faster than standard PYTHON and 10 times faster than serial C++ code on a CPU. Highly modular, easy to use, and to adopt in existing code, GALARIO comes as two compiled libraries, one for Nvidia GPUs and one for multicore CPUs, where both have the same functions with identical interfaces. GALARIO comes with PYTHON bindings but can also be directly used in C or C++. The versatility and the speed of GALARIO open new analysis pathways that otherwise would be prohibitively time consuming, e.g. fitting high-resolution observations of large number of objects, or entire spectral cubes of molecular gas emission. It is a general tool that can be applied to any field that uses radio interferometer observations. The source code is available online at http://github.com/mtazzari/galario under the open source GNU Lesser General Public License v3.
A system of seven tables, which cover analysis archiving, observation types, quality control, data assimilation cycles, assimilating models, initialization, and analysis techniques was adopted. The set of prepared tables allows side-by-side comparison of the characteristics of the six data assimilation systems (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Science, National Meteorological Center, Florida State University, and Naval Environmental Prediction Research Facility) used to produce FGGE IIIb analyses.
An analysis of observations of 24 absorption lines produced near zero redshift by Milky Way disk and halo gas along the sight line to 3C 273 is presented. The reduced spectra have a resolution of about 20 km/s (FWHM) with broad wings and an SNR of 13 to 20. The species detected include C II, C II*, C IV, O I, Mg II, Si II, Si IV, S II, Mn II, Fe II, and Ni II. The O I absorption is blended with earth atmospheric emission, and one of the Si IV doublet lines is blended with an intergalactic Lyman-alpha line. Column densities are determined for C II*, C IV, Si II, Si IV, N V, S II, Mn II, and Ni II using standard curve-of-growth techniques and the apparent optical depth method. The column density for S II and a measure of N(H I) from FOS observations of Lyman-alpha reveal a 45-percent overabundance of sulfur compared with neutral hydrogen which is probably due to the presence of S II in ionized gas toward 3C 273.
Our program consisted of three observations of the symbiotic neutron stadred giant binary 4U 1700+24/HD154791. Using an earlier 2002 TOO observation made in response to a new transient X-ray outburst, we had previously discovered a redshifted O VII line and submitted a paper on this discovery to the journal Astronomy and Astrophysics. In these new observations, we from analysis of the 2002 TOO observation of the symbiotic neutron-star binary 4U 1700+24, made in response to detection of a new transient outburst, we discovered a redshifted Oxygen VIII line (in collaboration with A. Tiengo of UVA), and submitted a paper on this result to A&A. Analysis of the three subsequent observations has found a number of other features also due to ionized oxygen, which we have found to vary as the source transits from outburst to quiescence. A paper describing these observations is being prepared for submission to the Astrophysical Journal, led by Co-I Duncan Galloway.
This NASA grant covered EUVE observing and data analysis programs during EUVE Cycle 5 GO observing. The research involved a single Guest Observer project 97-EUVE-061 "Time-Resolved Spectroscopy of Active Binary Stars". The grant provided funding that covered 1.25 months of the PI's salary. The activities undertaken included observation planning and data analysis (both temporal and spectral). This project was awarded 910 ksec of observing time to study seven active binary stars, all but one of which were actually observed. Lambda-And was observed on 1997 Jul 30 - Aug 3 and Aug 7-14 for a total of 297 ksec; these observations showed two large complex flares that were analyzed by Osten & Brown (1999). AR Psc, observed for 350 ksec on 1997 Aug 27 - Sep 13, showed only relatively small flares that were also discussed by Osten & Brown (1999). EUVE observations of El Eri were obtained on 1994 August 24-28, simultaneous with ASCA X-ray spectra. Four flares were detected by EUVE with one of these also observed simultaneously, by ASCA. The other three EUVE observations were of the stars BY Dra (1997 Sep 22-28), V478 Lyr (1998 May 18-27), and sigma Gem (1998 Dec 10-22). The first two stars showed a few small flares. The sigma Gem data shows a beautiful complete flare with a factor of ten peak brightness compared to quiescence. The flare rise and almost all the decay phase are observed. Unfortunately no observations in other spectral regions were obtained for these stars. Analysis of the lambda-And and AR Psc observations is complete and the results were published in Osten & Brown (1999). Analysis of the BY Dra, V478 Lyr and sigma Gem EUVE data is complete and will be published in Osten (2000, in prep.). The El Eri EUV analysis is also completed and the simultaneous EUV/X-ray study will be published in Osten et al. (2000, in prep.). Both these latter papers will be submitted in summer 2000. All these results will form part of Rachel Osten's PhD thesis.
Plasmaspheric drainage plumes appear in the aftermath of periods of enhanced convection/erosion and are interpreted as a near-equatorial signature of the redistribution of thermal plasma along streamlines. Analysis of IMAGE/EUV observations from "FirstLight" through the end of calendar year 2002 reveals that for Kp greater than or equal to 3, there is an 84% probability of observing a plasmaspheric plume in EUV data. We present a statistical analysis of the geomagnetic conditions [Kp, Dst, and solar wind-induced electric field] associated with EUV plume observations. This analysis yields a peak in observational probability when Kp = 4 and Dst = -50 nT. Additionally, EUV pllume observations are associated with a solar wind-induced convection electric field at Earth [Ev, SM] characterized by bi-modal behavior with a positive mode peaked at approximately 4 m V(raised dot) m(sup -1) and a negative model that peaks at -2 mV (raised dot) m(sup -1). Analysis of the time rate of change of the plume-associated Ev, SM indicated that once the mechanism for plume formation is initiated, a slowly changing convection environment is required to allow for sufficient plume development prior to EUV detection.
We have developed a promising new technique for jointly analyzing BATSE hard X-ray observations of solar flares with simultaneous soft X-ray observations. The technique is based upon a model in which electric currents and associated electric fields are responsible for the respective heating and particle acceleration that occur in solar flares. A useful by-product of this technique is the strength and evolution of the coronal electric field. The latter permits one to derive important flare parameters such as the current density, the number of current filaments composing the loop, and ultimately the hard X-ray spectrum produced by the runaway electrons. We are continuing to explore the technique by applying it to additional flares for which we have joint BATSE/Yohkoh observations. A central assumption of our analysis is the constant of proportionality alpha relating the hard X-ray flux above 50 keV and the rate of electron acceleration. For a thick-target model of hard X-ray production, it can be shown that cv is in fact related to the spectral index and low-energy cutoff of precipitating electrons. The next step in our analysis is to place observational constraints on the latter parameters using the joint BATSE/Yohkoh data.
We present the first identification of a candidate precursor for an imminent red nova. Our prediction is based on the example of the precursor to the red nova V1309 Sco, which was retrospectively found to be a contact binary with an exponentially decreasing period. We explore the use of this distinctive timing signature to identify precursors, developing the observational and analysis steps needed. We estimate that our Galaxy has roughly 1–10 observable precursors. Specifically, we lay out the observational case for KIC 9832227, which we identified as a tentative candidate two years ago (Molnar et al. 2015, AAS Meeting #225 Abstracts 415.05). Orbital timing over the past two years has followed the tentative exponential fit. As of late 2015, the period time derivative went beyond the range found in other systems ( P-dot <|1×10{sup −8}|), a necessary criterion for a serious candidate. We estimate time of merger is the year 2022.2 ± 0.7. Double absorption line spectra confirm directly the 0.458-day light-curve is the orbital period of a contact binary system and yield a mass ratio m{sub B}/m{sub A}=0.228±0.003. Closer analysis of the Kepler timing data shows evidence of a component C with orbital period P{sub C}=590±8 days and m{sub C}sini{sub C}=0.11 M{sub ⊙}. An alternative interpretation of the long-term timing trend, that is, a light travel-time delay due to the orbit around a distant component D, is ruled out by the spectroscopic data for any nondegenerate star. Additional measurements are needed to test further the merging hypothesis and to use fully this fortuitous opportunity.
The Planetary Science Institute (PSI) was funded by SERCulpr to develop a communication network to alert observers of newly discovered near-earth asteroids (NEA's). This network is intended to encourage observers to obtain physical observations of NEA's, which are needed in order to characterize and assess the resource potential of these bodies. This network was declared operational in October 1990 via an announcement to the asteroid observing community. The PSI is also supported to develop the Near-Earth Asteroid Database (NEAD), a comprehensive database of physical and dynamical data on NEA's. In the past year, the database was updated on newly discovered NEA's during 1990, and new data on radar observations and dynamical classifications were added.
We deploy two-dimensional nano-hole arrays as resonant surface plasmon polariton (SPP) couplers that enable counter-propagation and interference-free imaging of SPP wave-packets. We monitor the spatiotemporal evolution of the resulting SPPs using two-color photoemission electron microscopy (PEEM). The measurements track the electric field envelope of the SPP in real space and time and enable direct characterization of their spatiotemporal properties in a regime where the SPP wave-packet is the principle observable. We provide an analysis of the observables for both the co- and counter-propagating directions via SPP trajectories that are recorded in tandem. Our results highlight the advantages of isolating SPPs through counter-propagation, where field-SPP interactions are suppressed.
Abstract. Wind lidars are widespread and important tools in atmospheric observations. An intrinsic part of lidar measurement error is due to atmospheric variability in the remote-sensing scan volume. This study describes and quantifies the distribution of measurement error due to turbulence in varying atmospheric stability. While the lidar error model is general, we demonstrate the approach using large ensembles of virtual WindCube V2 lidar performing a profiling Doppler-beam-swinging scan in quasi-stationary large-eddy simulations (LESs) of convective and stable boundary layers. Error trends vary with the stability regime, time averaging of results, and observation height. A systematic analysis of the observation error explains dominant mechanisms and supports the findings of the empirical results. Treating the error under a random variable framework allows for informed predictions about the effect of different configurations or conditions on lidar performance. Convective conditions are most prone to large errors (up to 1.5 m s−1 in 1 Hz wind speed in strong convection), driven by the large vertical velocity variances in convective conditions and the high elevation angle of the scanning beams (62∘). Range-gate weighting induces a negative bias into the horizontal wind speeds near the surface shear layer (−0.2 m s−1 in the stable test case). Errors in the horizontal wind speed and direction computed from the wind components are sensitive to the background wind speed but have negligible dependence on the relative orientation of the instrument. Especially during low winds and in the presence of large errors in the horizontal velocity estimates, the reported wind speed is subject to a systematic positive bias (up to 0.4 m s−1 in 1 Hz measurements in strong convection). Vector time-averaged measurements can improve the behavior of the error distributions (reducing the 10 min wind speed error standard deviation to <0.3 m s−1 and the bias to <0.1 m s−1 in strong convection) with a predictable effectiveness related to the number of decorrelated samples in the time window. Hybrid schemes weighting the 10 min scalar- and vector-averaged lidar measurements are shown to be effective at reducing the wind speed biases compared to cup measurements in most of the simulated conditions, with time averages longer than 10 min recommended for best use in some unstable conditions. The approach in decomposing the error mechanisms with the help of the LES flow field could be extended to more complex measurement scenarios and scans.