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DOE OSTI2024

Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems (Final Report for AEOLUS)

The AEOLUS Center is dedicated to developing a unified optimization-under-uncertainty framework for: (1) learning predictive models from data; and (2) optimizing experiments, processes, and designs governed by these models, all driven by complex, uncertain energy systems. AEOLUS addresses the critical need for principled, rigorous, scalable, and structure-exploiting capabilities for exploring parameter and decision spaces of complex forward simulation models. This report summarizes the key highlights of our research during the period of performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Kinetics Modeling for Design of Continuous Enzymatic Hydrolysis

Enzymatic hydrolysis of cellulose to monomeric sugars continues to be a limiting step in cost-effectively producing sugar and fermentation-based biofuels from biomass. In particular, the high cost of enzymes coupled with the long time-scale of reaction pose challenges to economic viability. Performing enzymatic hydrolysis in a continuous mode with enzyme recycle may provide a path towards substantially reduced costs for sugar production, but design and analysis are complicated by a lack of suitable kinetics models. Computationally attainable models, such as fractal-based models, require knowledge of the reaction-history of the biomass, and are thus only suitable for describing the batch reactions from which they are derived. Fundamental models, while potentially more generalizable, are often too computationally intensive to use in process or reactor modeling. In this work, a phenomenological rate model is proposed based on a two-phase substrate representation. Good agreement is seen between batch and continuous enzymatic hydrolysis (CEH) experiment data, which validates the model and enables us to solve for reactor design parameters, such as CEH reactor size and stream flow rates, based on process variables like yield. This model is integrated with techno-economic analysis software to explore economic sensitivities. Important design optimizations and tradeoffs are identified and quantified, including the relative cost imposed by rate slowdown from sugar inhibition versus the cost to remove and concentrate sugars at a lower concentration. It also identifies, high-leverage avenues for further exploration, such as increasing the maximum feasible solids concentration, and sustaining high membrane flux and reliability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

DBD plasma-assisted ethanol steam reforming for green H 2 production: Process optimization through response surface methodology (RSM)

Herein this work investigates ethanol steam reforming (ESR) to produce hydrogen (H 2 ) in a dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma reactor. A five-level, three-factor experiment design was performed using a response surface methodology (RSM) to evaluate the combined effects of the three process parameters, including discharge power, total flow rate, and ethanol-to-water (EtOH/H 2 O) molar ratio on the plasma-assisted ESR reaction. Quadratic regression models were employed in RSM to fit the experimental results and present the correlation between process parameters and targeted responses (EtOH conversion, H 2 yield, H 2 selectivity, and specific energy requirement (SER) for H 2 production). The results suggested that the EtOH/H 2 O molar ratio is considered to have the most significant effect on the EtOH conversion and H 2 , H 2 selectivity, while the total flow rate is the most significant parameter determining SER for H 2 production. Process optimization demonstrated the optimal process conditions, including a discharge power of 55.9 W, a total flow rate of 26.7 ml/min, and an EtOH/H 2 O molar ratio equal to 0.34. A validation test was performed and confirmed the feasibility of the optimization process.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

A refined assessment of nuclear data target accuracy requirements for ALFRED

The interest in target accuracy assessment has been recently renewed within the OECD/NEA Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Cooperation with an update exercise, thanks to the invaluable initiative of Massimo Salvatores. This work, moving from evaluations on the main core integral parameters of the Advanced Lead-cooled Fast Reactor European Demonstrator (ALFRED), and the identification of the associated target accuracies needed for improving its design, approaches the retrieval of target accuracy requirements for nuclear data, as the inverse problem of uncertainty quantification. The preliminary results obtained in a previous work are here refined by explicitly taking into account the total contribution due to correlations among variables in the optimization constraint, while its various components are evaluated individually. Moreover, three different sets of cost parameters are considered to introduce a bias in the solution in order to take in due account the relative difficulties in the execution of new differential experiments as needed for achieving the proposed target accuracies. By this, the obtained results are deemed usefully informative, and proposed for the update of a High Priority List which identifies the isotopes-reaction couples of most interest for future refinement experiments, especially when integrated with further analogous information collected on other advanced nuclear systems. Among the cross-sections whose refinement contributes the most to the reduction of the multiplication factor, the fission of Pu{sup 239} was found, which needs to be fixed below 1% in the range of interest for ALFRED (2 keV-4 MeV). Another contribution for the amelioration of the multiplication factor calculation accuracy, is due to the capture channel of Pu{sup 239}, for which the initial high uncertainty (around 15%) can be significantly reduced resorting to easily practicable experiments. The same occurs for the inelastic of Pb{sup 207}, for which the initial uncertainty value of around 50% can be drastically reduced up to target values between 4% and 7%.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing feed modulation for coupled methane and NO x conversion over Pd-Pt/Mn 0.5 Fe 2.5 O 4 /Al 2 O 3 monolith catalyst

Here the impacts of feed modulation (frequency, amplitude) and catalyst design (composition and architecture) parameters are reported for the conversion of methane and NO x over a dual-layer Pt+Pd/Al 2 O 3 + Mn 0.5 Fe 2.5 O 4 /Al 2 O 3 monolith. CH 4 and NO x conversion data show that the dual-layer catalyst outperforms single-layer samples having the same catalyst loadings, with and without spinel. Close proximity of the PGM and MFO functions in the mixed-layer catalyst lowers the CH 4 conversion at high temperature while separating the PGM and spinel layers with an intermediate Al 2 O 3 layer does not. Methane conversion enhancement is linked to its nonmonotonic dependence on O 2 . The performance gains are tied to a transient activity spike that occurs during the lean-to-rich feed transition when water is present in the feed. The transient spike is attributed to the removal of CO and H 2 products via reactions with stored O 2 in the spinel, eliminating inhibition of methane steam reforming.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Next-Cycle Optimal Fuel Control for Cycle-to-Cycle Variability Reduction in EGR-Diluted Combustion

In this simulation study, cycle-to-cycle fuel control was used to reduce CCV by injecting additional fuel in operating conditions with sporadic misfires and partial burns. An optimal control policy was proposed that utilizes 1) a physics-based model that tracks in-cylinder gas composition and 2) a one-step-ahead prediction of the combustion efficiency based on a kernel density estimator. The optimal solution, however, presents a tradeoff between the reduction in combustion CCV and the increase in fuel injection quantity required to stabilize the charge. Such a tradeoff can be ad- just by a single parameter embedded in the cost function.

Maldonado, BryanP. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation-driven design optimization of reaction injection molding (RIM) process for polydicyclopentadiene (pDCPD): Minimizing cycle time, defects, and warpage

Replacing metal components in trucks, trailers, and buses with lightweight polymer composites is challenging due to high temperatures and complex manufacturing. The Reaction Injection Molding (RIM) process using Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) resin offers a solution by producing robust parts with excellent stiffness, impact strength, and resistance properties. Simulations are essential for optimizing this process, predicting defects, and improving quality. However, most commercial software is tailored for thermoplastics, requiring thermoset users to generate their own datasets. In this study, a material data card for DCPD was developed to perform RIM simulations. Design of Experiments (DOE) was used to identify key factors affecting filling, curing, and warpage, aiming to minimize cycle time and defects. The simulations explored varying injection gate parameters (size, location, number) and process conditions (mold/resin temperature, injection/curing pressure). Results showed that gate design significantly impacts filling behavior and defects. A single central gate provided balanced flow with fewer defects, while two corner gates led to more defects. Additionally, lower injection pressure increased filling time, while higher mold temperature accelerated curing but led to more warpage. In conclusion, this optimization framework aims to enhance DCPD part performance and promote sustainable manufacturing by reducing waste and energy consumption.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Design and optimization of flexible decoupled high-temperature gas-cooled reactor plants with thermal energy storage

Advanced nuclear power plants are well-positioned for future zero-carbon grids, however, the need for flexible power generation will be required over the traditional emphasis on baseload generation for meeting historical demands. To achieve such flexibility, this work examines viable configurations for coupling nuclear energy production with thermal energy storage. Previous designs on nuclear-thermal energy storage configurations for advanced reactor designs, which utilized reactor steam as the heat source for charging the thermal energy storage, are restricted by the heat diversion ratio and efficiency losses, thus their impacts can be limited. In this context, this study proposes configurations for fully decoupling the nuclear reactor from the power cycle and positioning the storage as an intermediate loop, thereby achieving an unconstrained heat diversion ratio and improved efficiency. Compared with a standard high-temperature gas-cooled reactor’s power cycle, steady-state thermodynamic modeling and dispatch optimizations quantify the benefits of a steam reheat cycle within the fully decoupled thermal energy system to separate the plant cycle from the high-pressure primary side. These benefits are further detailed, compatible with required high-temperature and high-pressure conditions, through (1) open-source dynamic transient models that examine the impact of off-design operation on the systems, (2) the investigation of components design and costing and finally (3) sizing and dispatch optimization. The fully-decoupled design achieves a cycle efficiency of 43.1%, an enhancement over the vendor’s standard efficiency of 42.2% (Xe-100 design). Here, the proposed design offers strengthened physical barriers from the nuclear island as well as superior operational flexibility and power boosting. Dispatch optimization and market analysis reveal that thermal energy storage size is highly dependent on the peak patterns of electricity prices and the minimum generation level constraint imposed on the balance of plant. Evaluation of off-design operation demonstrates that the full decoupling design with the suggested fail-safe control mechanisms ensures a minimal impact on reactor parameters, even during rapid power ramping.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Solvent‐free enzymatic esterification of free fatty acids with glycerol for biodiesel application: Optimized using the Taguchi experimental method

Abstract Presence of free fatty acids along with glycerides poses a technical difficulty for biodiesel production. This work used a Taguchi L9 design to optimize the solvent‐free enzymatic process to result in the esterification of oleic acid with glycerol. Under optimal conditions the esterification reaction temperature of 60°C, enzyme dose of 5 wt%, glycerol: oleic acid molar ratio of 5:1, and reaction time of 3 h, a 75.235 ± 2.19% conversion of oleic acid to esters was achieved. With the addition of molecular sieves, the conversion increased to 86.73% ± 1.09%. However, using the parameters predicted by Taguchi design (60°C, 5 wt%, 5:1, and 4.5 h), 88.5% ± 1.11% of oleic acid could be converted to esters derivative. Diglycerides were the major product, and the reaction equilibrium was attained after 4 h. The immobilized enzyme could be used up to seven times with only a 10% reduction in the conversion. Thus, the process can efficiently reduce the free fatty acid content of oil to make it suitable for biodiesel production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data for Solvent-Free Enzymatic Esterification of Free Fatty Acids with Glycerol for Biodiesel Application: Optimized Using the Taguchi Experimental Method

Presence of free fatty acids along with glycerides poses a technical difficulty for biodiesel production. This work used a Taguchi L9 design to optimize the solvent-free enzymatic process to result in the esterification of oleic acid with glycerol. Under optimal conditions the esterification reaction temperature of 60°C, enzyme dose of 5 wt%, glycerol: oleic acid molar ratio of 5:1, and reaction time of 3 h, a 75.235 ± 2.19% conversion of oleic acid to esters was achieved. With the addition of molecular sieves, the conversion increased to 86.73% ± 1.09%. However, using the parameters predicted by Taguchi design (60°C, 5 wt%, 5:1, and 4.5 h), 88.5% ± 1.11% of oleic acid could be converted to esters derivative. Diglycerides were the major product, and the reaction equilibrium was attained after 4 h. The immobilized enzyme could be used up to seven times with only a 10% reduction in the conversion. Thus, the process can efficiently reduce the free fatty acid content of oil to make it suitable for biodiesel production.

Conversion↗

DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous Output‐Oriented Aerosol Jet Printing Enabled by Hybrid Machine Learning

Additive manufacturing (AM) is rapidly revolutionizing modern manufacturing with recent progress in advanced printing methods and improved properties of printed materials. However, traditional AM methods are limited by their input‐oriented nature, which demands tedious trial‐and‐error tuning of printing parameters to achieve desired output properties. Here, in this work, an output‐oriented artificial intelligence‐integrated AM (AIAM) method is reported that enables an user to specify desired output properties while the printer autonomously discovers the optimal input printing parameters by integrating hybrid machine learning models and in situ measurements. Based on a predictive mapping between the input printing parameters and the output properties of interests established with <20 experiments designed by active learning, inverse design tasks are performed to intelligently generate the printing parameter settings that lead to desired outcomes using reinforcement learning. This method is demonstrated by autonomous aerosol jet printing (AJP) of conductive polymer films and achieving user‐defined electrical resistances with an ultralow error of 3.7%. The AIAM method, with its output‐oriented nature, holds the potential to significantly improve the autonomy, predictability, efficiency, and accessibility of the AM processes, which will unlock new possibilities in the autonomous and intelligent printing of a broad range of functional materials and devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Bayesian optimal experiments for uncertain biochemical pathway models

Abstract Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD models are known to possess significant uncertainty with respect to constituent parameter data, leading to uncertainty in the model predictions. Furthermore, experimental data to calibrate these models is often limited or unavailable for novel pathways. In this study, we present a Bayesian optimal experimental design approach for improving PD model prediction accuracy. We then apply our method using simulated experimental data to account for uncertainty in hypothetical laboratory measurements. This leads to a probabilistic prediction of drug performance and a quantitative measure of which prospective laboratory experiment will optimally reduce prediction uncertainty in the PD model. The methods proposed here provide a way forward for uncertainty quantification and guided experimental design for models of novel biological pathways.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of source emittance and beam coherence properties of the upgraded Advanced Photon Source

The Advanced Photon Source (APS) has been upgraded with a multi-bend achromat lattice, achieving significantly reduced electron beam emittance and enhanced X-ray coherence. Precise characterization of these properties is essential for optimizing beamline performance and enabling new experiments that take full advantage of the upgraded source. We report on measurements of source size and transverse coherence properties using grating interferometry at two beamlines: the APS 3-ID-B undulator beamline and the 1-BM-B bending magnet beamline. The results confirm the world-record horizontal emittance of the upgraded APS below 30 pm rad and validate the theoretical design parameters. We further investigate the impact of optical aberrations and mechanical vibrations at the 12-ID-C beamline on coherence preservation. These measurements establish a benchmark for future beamline enhancements and demonstrate the effectiveness of grating interferometry for high-precision beam characterization. Our findings provide critical insights into synchrotron beam dynamics, coherence degradation mechanisms, and strategies for optimizing beamline X-ray optics at next-generation light sources.

Advanced Photon Source↗

DOE OSTI2025

Smart culture medium optimization for recombinant protein production: Experimental, modeling, and AI/ML-driven strategies

Recombinant protein production (RPP) is central to biotechnology, where recombinant proteins are used as either end products or catalysts in the synthesis of chemicals, fuels, and materials. Among the major cost drivers, culture medium plays a pivotal role in determining protein yield and quality. This review presents a comprehensive perspective on the critical stages of “smart” culture medium optimization: planning, screening, modeling, optimization, and validation. In the planning stage, we examine the nutritional and energetic roles of medium components, including carbon, nitrogen, amino acids, salts, and trace metals, and their impacts on culture parameters such as pH, oxidative state, and osmolality. We highlight the variability in trace metal content due to water sources, culture vessels, and raw materials, which can substantially influence RPP. The screening stage covers Design of Experiments (DoE) approaches, assessing their theoretical basis, implementation, and limitations. For modeling, we describe methods that integrate experimental data to develop predictive models for smart medium formulation. Model-based optimization strategies can then be employed to select optimal media compositions for a given application. The validation stage aims to evaluate model predictions and provide feedback for model training and refinement. Finally, we survey mechanistic and artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML)-driven models as integrated, transformational tools for predictive modeling of bioprocess conditions, nutrient availability, cellular metabolism, and protein quality, with the goal of optimizing culture media to enhance protein yields while reducing costs and environmental impact. We conclude by addressing the challenges of translating laboratory-scale medium optimization to industrial-scale settings and exploring future AI/ML-driven approaches that may overcome current bottlenecks and accelerate medium design for RPP. Overall, this review provides a unified framework for advancing smart medium design in RPP.

Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing the cooling performance of thermocouples: a power-constrained topology optimization procedure

Abstract Heat pumping through thermoelectric devices has many advantages over traditional cooling. However, their current efficiency is a limiting factor in their implementation. In this paper, we approach the non-convex topology optimization of thermoelectrical elements for cooling applications through the method of moving asymptotes (MMA) to improve their cooling capabilities per watt usage. The optimization problem is defined for a given power budget, aiming for the minimum temperature with a known heat pumping need. The introduction of power as a constraint justifies the introduction of the voltage gradient across the thermocouple as a design variable to maintain the thermoelectrical device in its optimum power-to-heat extraction ratio. To better understand the convergence of this non-convex problem, we present a two-variable analytical thermoelectric optimization model. This example provides information on how to select the penalty parameters used to scale the three material coefficients involved in the problem to obtain lower objective values and better convergence using MMA. The analytical model shows the non-convexity of the problem and provides the recommendation to use penalization coefficients of the form $$p_k=p_{\sigma }>p_{\alpha }=1$$ p k = p σ > p α = 1 for the thermal conductivity, electrical conductivity, and Seebeck coefficients. We tested these penalization coefficients through optimizations of a model based on the 1MC10-031 commercial thermoelectric-cooler (TEC) using the finite element method (FEM). These penalization coefficients provided local minima without the need for volume constraints. With this procedure, we found designs that provided temperatures close to 10 degrees lower using 60% less semiconductor material volume compared to the initial design.

Gutiérrez, G. Reales↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the 3D printing of polypropylene and post-processing optimization of thermomechanical properties

Polypropylene (PP) is a highly desirable polyolefin in various plastic industries due to its outstanding thermomechanical properties and chemical resistance. Therefore, the 3D printing of PP is an interesting avenue to explore in digitized manufacturing, where more freedom in structural designs is available for new and extended applications, such as high-performance engineering parts. Here, in this work, we 3D printed PP and studied the effect of printing parameters and post-processing conditions on the printed polymer’s thermomechanical behavior. Results showed that nozzle and bed temperatures of 220 and 100°C produced a high printing quality. Infill percentages between 80 and 90%, coupled with a 4-h annealing at 110ºC, also resulted in optimal printed properties. It is thought that PP can be potentially blended with polyethylene or other vinyl polymers for a more extended 3D printing utility and practical applications in rapid tooling and prototyping.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating advanced nuclear fission technologies for future decarbonized power grids

Advanced nuclear fission, which encompasses various innovative nuclear reactor designs, could contribute to the decarbonization of the United States electricity sector. However, little is known about how cost-competitive these reactors would be compared to other technologies, or about which aspects of their designs offer the most value to a decarbonized power grid. We employ an electricity system optimization model and a case study of a decarbonized U.S. Eastern Interconnection circa 2050 to generate initial indicators of future economic value for advanced reactors and the sensitivity of future value to various design parameters, the availability of competing technologies, and the underlying policy environment. These results can inform long-term cost targets and guide near-term innovation priorities, investments, and reactor design decisions. We find that advanced reactors should cost $\$5.7$–$\$7.3$/W to gain an initial market share (assuming 30 year asset life and 3.5 %–6.5 % real weighted average cost of capital), while those that include thermal storage in their designs can cost up to $\$6.0$/W–$\$7.7$/W (not including cost of storage). Since the marginal value of advanced fission reactors declines as market penetration increases, break-even costs fall ~32 % at 100 GW of cumulative capacity and ~51 % at 300 GW. Additionally, policies that provide investment tax credits for nuclear energy create the most favorable environment for advanced nuclear fission. In conclusion, these findings can inform near-term resource allocation decisions by stakeholders, innovators and investors working in the energy technology sector.

Capacity expansion↗

DOE OSTI2024

CORE DESIGN AND NEUTRONIC ANALYSIS OF THE EUROPEAN SODIUM FAST REACTOR WITH METALLIC FUEL

The current ESFR (European Sodium Fast Reactor) design was proposed and in-depth evaluated in the frame of the past ESFR-SMART project. As a follow-up project, the ESFR-SIMPLE has been launched with the aim of challenging the current commercial-size ESFR design in terms of safety features and economic performance. Among the new safety measures to be developed and assessed in ESFR-SIMPLE, the current oxide fuel ESFR design will be challenged by a modified version of the core with metallic fuel. This intends to conclude on what types of benefits can be obtained with high-density fuel, under similar safety and design constraints. In this paper, the designing approach for enabling the use of metallic fuel in the current ESFR core is described and a preliminary neutronic evaluation is carried out. The optimal configuration is established through the optimization of key neutronic parameters aiming at the potential reduction of the plutonium inventory. The resulting core configuration serves as a basis for further safety assessment analyses, which will provide insight into the advantages and drawbacks of the two types of fuels.

Jiménez-Carrascosa, Antonio↗