Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “pose estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Design Report on the MiniFuel Instrumented Test Apparatus for Understanding Radiation Effects

Most nuclear fuels irradiations at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) over the past decade have been conducted using MiniFuel—a static capsule design employing subscale fuel specimens to collect separate-effects irradiated fuel performance data. Irradiation conditions for MiniFuel experiments are predicted pre-test using reactor physics, and thermal models are verified post-irradiation via SiC dilatometry and various spectrometry methods. Relevant fuel performance parameters are also observed post-irradiation in a hot cell, thereby providing a single data point for each parameter representing the cumulative effects of the irradiation conditions. Substantially more data can be harvested from a single test and within a shorter duration by instrumenting irradiation vehicles and measuring desired quantities in situ. This report presents the design and analysis of the MiniFuel INstrumented Irradiation Test Apparatus for Understanding Radiation Effects (MINITAURE)—an instrumented test rig based on the separate-effects MiniFuel concept that aims to capture fission gas release (FGR) and thermal conductivity degradation of fuel specimens during irradiation in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). MINITAURE will be integrated with the Materials Irradiation Facility (MIF) located in the HFIR building outside the reactor containment. The MIF will act as the instrumentation and control center for the experiment, enabling real-time feedback from in situ sensors and control of irradiation temperatures via a gas delivery system. Two unique capsule designs were developed to capture each phenomenon: the thermal conductivity capsule, which uses a thermopile method to estimate fuel specimen thermal conductivity, and the fission gas release capsule, which will have continuous flowing gas communication to high-purity germanium detectors that are housed in the MIF for monitoring FGR. This report details the reactor physics and heat transfer modeling activities that were used to inform the experiment design and predict capsule performance. It also describes out-of-pile activities conducted to stand up this new capability and verify the measurement techniques. Modeling efforts to date have demonstrated the feasibility of the in situ measurement techniques and supported the development of the MINITAURE assembly configuration. Out-of-pile testing of the thermal conductivity measurement shows promise in capturing relative changes in thermal conductivity. However, significant errors exist in the measured absolute value, posing a need for further refinement.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2010

Integration Process for the Habitat Demonstration Unit

The Habitat Demonstration Unit (HDU) is an experimental exploration habitat technology and architecture test platform designed for analog demonstration activities The HDU project has required a team to integrate a variety of contributions from NASA centers and outside collaborators and poses a challenge in integrating these disparate efforts into a cohesive architecture To complete the development of the HDU from conception in June 2009 to rollout for operations in July 2010, a cohesive integration strategy has been developed to integrate the various systems of HDU and the payloads, such as the Geology Lab, that those systems will support The utilization of interface design standards and uniquely tailored reviews have allowed for an accelerated design process Scheduled activities include early fit-checks and the utilization of a Habitat avionics test bed prior to equipment installation into HDU A coordinated effort to utilize modeling and simulation systems has aided in design and integration concept development Modeling tools have been effective in hardware systems layout, cable routing and length estimation, and human factors analysis Decision processes on the shell development including the assembly sequence and the transportation have been fleshed out early on HDU to maximize the efficiency of both integration and field operations Incremental test operations leading up to an integrated systems test allows for an orderly systems test program The HDU will begin its journey as an emulation of a Pressurized Excursion Module (PEM) for 2010 field testing and then may evolve to a Pressurized Core Module (PCM) for 2011 and later field tests, depending on agency architecture decisions The HDU deployment will vary slightly from current lunar architecture plans to include developmental hardware and software items and additional systems called opportunities for technology demonstration One of the HDU challenges has been designing to be prepared for the integration of presently unanticipated systems Results of the HDU field tests will influence future designs of habitat systems.

Gill, Tracy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of radiation heat loss on planar and spherical hydrofluorocarbon/air flames

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), which are mildly flammable and pose potential fire risks, have received greater attention as a viable low global warming potential alternative to traditional refrigerant and fire-suppressant compounds. Therefore, there is a demand to accurately quantify their flammability and re-activity to establish proper safety metrics. Here, this study investigates the effects of radiation heat loss on slowly-propagating HFC/air laminar flames. Planar 1-D simulations of R-32/air and R-1234yf/air flames show significant reductions in laminar flame speed due to radiative heat losses from the flame zone. Simulations of spherically expanding flames (SEF) revealed that the radiation-induced flow needs to be considered when interpreting data from experiments. To this end, a Spherical-flame RADiation-Induced Flow (SRADIF) model was developed to estimate the burned gas inward flow velocities in constant-pressure SEFs, utilizing the optically thin limit assumption to model radiation heat loss. The model was validated against results from detailed numerical simulations of SEFs, from which radiation-induced inward flow was derived using a new formulation considering both the radiation heat loss and convective flow effects. Results show that SRADIF accurately predicts the inward flow velocity for R-32/air mixtures over a range of conditions and performs significantly better compared to existing analytical models. However, the model was unable to accurately predict flow velocities for R-1234yf/air flames and the reason for this is discussed. (224 words)

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Principal Component and Machine Learning Approach to Gap Fill Hyperspectral Ocean Color Satellite Retrievals

Retrievals of ocean color properties from space are important for monitoring the health of the ocean ecosystem but such retrievals can be limited spatially due to conditions such as clouds, aerosols, and sun glint. Gap filling of ocean color retrievals is typically performed by combining retrievals from multiple satellites or temporally averaging multiple days of retrievals. Despite these techniques large gaps still exist posing challenges for near real time monitoring of events like harmful algae blooms. To address these limitations, we developed a spatial gap filling approach applying machine learning approach to hyperspectral instruments to learn how to perform an atmospheric correction under challenging retrieval conditions. In this approach a principal component analysis is used to decompose the hyperspectral measurements into spectral components that describe the scattering and absorption of the atmosphere mixed with the surface spectral signatures. The coefficients of the principal components are used to train a neural network to predict ocean color properties derived from a standard MODIS ocean color algorithm. We apply the approach to two hyperspectral UV/VIS sensors, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) to show that it can be used to estimate ocean color properties such as chlorophyll, remote sensing reflectance, and fluorescence line height. This method could be used as a gap-filling technique for the future Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) onboard upcoming NASA's Plankton, Aerosol Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) satellite to provide additional information for monitoring the health of our global oceans. Additionally, it could be applied to the first NASA and Smithsonian geostationary Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) spectrometer to better understand diurnal variability in inland and coastal ocean ecology.

Zachary Fasnacht↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Propagation within Chained Models for Machine Learning Reconstruction of Neutrino-LAr Interactions

Sequential or chained models are increasingly prevalent in machine learning for scientific applications, due to their flexibility and ease of development. Chained models are particularly useful when a task is separable into distinct steps with a hierarchy of meaningful intermediate representations. In reliability-critical tasks, it is important to quantify the confidence of model inferences. However, chained models pose an additional challenge for uncertainty quantification, especially when input uncertainties need to be propagated. In such cases, a fully uncertainty-aware chain of models is required, where each step accepts a probability distribution over the input space, and produces a probability distribution over the output space. In this work, we present a case study for adapting a single model within an existing chain, designed for reconstruction within neutrino-Argon interactions, developed for neutrino oscillation experiments such as MicroBooNE, ICARUS, and the future DUNE experiment. We test the performance of an input uncertainty-enabled model against an uncertainty-blinded model using a method for generating synthetic noise. By comparing these two, we assess the increase in inference quality achieved by exposing models to upstream uncertainty estimates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Life cycle assessment of novel heat exchanger for dry cooling of power plants based on encapsulated phase change materials

Cooling systems in power plants account for approximately 40% of total freshwater withdrawals in the U.S. Due to dwindling access to freshwater resources worldwide, continued operation of wet cooling systems poses a significant engineering challenge. To reduce water consumption, a novel air-cooled heat exchanger has been developed using encapsulated phase change material (EPCM) for dry cooling of power plants. Compared to traditional finned-tube air-cooled condensers, this novel EPCM heat exchanger improves the heat transfer coefficient and power plant efficiency while reducing the pressure drop and cooling system cost. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) are used to evaluate the environmental and economic performance of EPCM heat exchangers from cradle-to-grave and to compare them to wet cooling and traditional air-cooled condensers. A thermodynamic model is developed to predict the EPCM heat exchanger performance for plant-scale operations. Equipment and construction costs for heat exchangers are estimated based on design parameters obtained from the thermodynamic model. Both process-LCA and economic-input–output LCA are used to simulate and test the sensitivity of EPCM alternatives with commercial wet and dry cooling technologies. We investigate options for EPCM end-of-life management upon retiring the heat exchanger and construct a process-based LCA model to estimate a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions credit for recycling the EPCM. The life cycle GHG emission of the novel dry cooling technology is 1.16 kg CO 2 eq. /MWh compared with the 1.1–4.3 kg CO 2 eq. /MWh reported for commercial dry cooling technologies and consumes 9.5 L/MWh e of water for cradle-to-gate life cycle, which is significantly lower than that of wet cooling systems. The TEA shows many advantages of EPCM cooling technology over the state-of-art dry cooling solutions. Overall, the EPCM heat exchanger provides a better alternative compared to existing dry cooling and wet cooling technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

An analysis of parameters affecting ampacity in aircraft bipolar MVDC power cables via coupled electrical, thermal, and computational fluid dynamic modelling

Abstract The next generation of aircraft, including more electric aircraft and all‐electric aircraft (AEA), requires electric power systems with high power density and low system mass specifications. Increasing the voltage of the system to the range of a few kV, medium voltage (MV), is a reasonable approach to achieving high‐power‐density and low‐system‐mass EPSs for aircraft applications. Higher voltages, however, pose many challenges for aviation MV power cables such as arcs and arc tracking, partial discharges (PDs), and thermal management. In this regard, thermal management is more challenging since heat transfer by convection is greatly reduced at wide‐body aircraft's cruising altitudes due to the reduced air pressure. In this paper, a finite element method (FEM) model is developed in COMSOL Multiphysics for an aircraft bipolar MVDC (±5 kV) power cable. Using the model, the maximum permissible cable current at a low pressure of 18.8 kPa (at an altitude of 12.2 km from sea level, the usual cruising altitude for wide‐body aircraft) is calculated. Also, an analytical model is developed based on analytical and proven empirical correlations governing conductive, radiative, and convective heat transfers at the steady state to estimate the ampacity of the bipolar cable system at reduced pressure. It was shown that the proposed analytical model can be used for atmospheric pressure and systems with a larger number of poles, expanding its range of applications. The results of the FEM and analytical models correlate at wide ranges of parameters such as ambient temperature, duct size, distance between the positive and negative pole cables, and the overall diameter of the cables. The influence of horizontal and vertical arrangement of poles is included in the analytical model. The results of this study can be used to design bipolar MVDC power cable systems for the envisaged wide‐body AEA.

Azizi, Arian↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flash Heating of a Hollow Rod to Determine Thermal Properties

In a nuclear reactor, prolonged exposure to high neutron flux levels can change material properties of reactor components. Due to the danger posed to personnel by highly radioactive components such as spent fuel, noncontact methods must be used to determine these properties. The objective of the current research is to test the viability of using a flash-heating method to determine the thermal diffusivity of a silicon carbide (SiC) tube, which could be used as cladding for a nuclear fuel rod. The flash-heating experiment was conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and temperature results were analyzed as a two-Dimensional cross section which assumed axial symmetry. The model was fitted iteratively to the temperature measurements using nonlinear regression which required values for thermal diffusivity, Biot number and a term to determine the magnitude of the heat absorbed by the flash. The method could be expanded in the future to estimate the thermal diffusivity of spent nuclear fuel rods in an effort to increase the certainty of new reactor designs using precise thermal properties throughout the core life. A statistical analysis of the results of this work is provided as part of the analysis.

McMasters, Robert L [Virginia Military Institute, ↗
NASA NTRS2011

Comparing the Earth Impact Flux from Comets and Near-Earth Asteroids

Long-period comets (LPC), defined here as those active comets with orbital periods greater than 200 years, are the most difficult objects to mitigate should one be found on an Earth threatening trajectory. The arrival of these objects from the distant Oort cloud cannot be predicted and the impact warning time would be measured in a few months - not years. At the distance of Jupiter, an inactive cometary nucleus with a diameter of one kilometer and a geometric albedo equal to 0.04 would have an apparent magnitude fainter than 25 near opposition and, hence would be well outside the detection capability of current NEO search telescopes. In general LPCs do not become active, and hence discoverable, until inside the orbit of Jupiter and it takes but nine months for a LPC to travel the distance from Jupiter's orbit to that of the Earth.Estimating the impact energy for long-period comets is particularly difficult because the sizes and masses of these objects are not well known. Their solid nuclei are hidden from ground-based telescopes by their gas and dust atmospheres and even when nearby spacecraft observations can determine a size and shape for a cometary nucleus, there are no direct determinations of any cometary mass or bulk density to date. However, a variety of indirect bulk density determinations consistently provide values below one gram per cubic centimeter, the value for water. From measurements made by the Deep Impact spacecraft during its encounter with comet Tempel 1 in July 2005, the bulk density was estimated to be 0.6 grams per cubic centimeter. The mean impact velocity of a LPC is about 51 km/s, three times the 17 km/s value for a typical near-Earth asteroid (NEA) so the impact energy for an LPC would be 9 times that of a NEA of similar mass. However, the bulk density of a comet (approx. 0.6 g/cu cm) is several times less than the density of a stony NEA (approx. 2.6 g/ cu cm) so for a LPC and a stony NEA of the same size, the LPC's impact energy would be about twice that of the NEA.To properly allocate the limited resources available for NEO surveys and physical characterization, it is important to understand the relative threat from long-period comets versus the threat posed by near-Earth asteroids.

near Earth objects↗
DOE OSTI2022

Can lidars assess wind plant blockage in simple terrain? A WRF-LES study

Wind plant blockage reduces wind velocity upstream of wind plants, reducing the power generated by turbines adjacent to the inflow, and potentially throughout the plant as well. The nature of the mechanism that amplifies blockage as well as the velocity reductions in both the induction zone and potentially deeper into the array are not well understood. Field observations can provide valuable insight into the characteristics of the induction zone and the mechanisms that amplify it. However, the relatively small velocity reductions that have been measured experimentally pose a challenge in quantifying blockage, especially in onshore environments with flow heterogeneities that may be of the same scale as the blockage effect itself. We simulate the flow around the King Plains wind plant in the relatively simple terrain of Oklahoma, the location of the American WAKE experimeNt, to evaluate wind plant blockage in this environment. Using numerical simulations, we find the largest velocity deceleration (0.64 m s−1; 8%) immediately upstream of the wind plant, and 1% velocity deficits 24 rotor diameters upstream of the first turbine row. We also use virtual measurements upstream of the wind plant to analyze the uncertainties and difficulties in measuring blockage using a scanning lidar on shore. Based on our virtual lidar study, the induction zone of land-based wind plants can be incorrectly estimated using observations if the effects of nonuniform terrain on the flow are not carefully considered. Changes in terrain elevation produce local variations in wind speed (as measured by a scanning lidar) that exceed in magnitude the deceleration within the induction zone. We refer to these local changes in wind speed as terrain effects. A methodology to differentiate between terrain effects and blockage in experimental settings is proposed and evaluated herein, highlighting the difficulties and uncertainties associated with measurement and simulation of blockage in even relatively simple onshore environments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dead but Not Forgotten: How Extracellular DNA, Moisture, and Space Modulate the Horizontal Transfer of Extracellular Antibiotic Resistance Genes in Soil

Antibiotic-resistant bacteria and the spread of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) pose a serious risk to human and veterinary health. While many studies focus on the movement of live antibiotic-resistant bacteria to the environment, it is unclear whether extracellular ARGs (eARGs) from dead cells can transfer to live bacteria to facilitate the evolution of antibiotic resistance in nature. Here, we use eARGs from dead, antibiotic-resistant Pseudomonas stutzeri cells to track the movement of eARGs to live P. stutzeri cells via natural transformation, a mechanism of horizontal gene transfer involving the genomic integration of eARGs. In sterile, antibiotic-free agricultural soil, we manipulated the eARG concentration, soil moisture, and proximity to eARGs. We found that transformation occurred in soils inoculated with just 0.25 μg of eDNA g –1 soil, indicating that even low concentrations of soil eDNA can facilitate transformation (previous estimates suggested ~2 to 40 μg eDNA g –1 soil). When eDNA was increased to 5 μg g –1 soil, there was a 5-fold increase in the number of antibiotic-resistant P. stutzeri cells. We found that eARGs were transformed under soil moistures typical of terrestrial systems (5 to 30% gravimetric water content) but inhibited at very high soil moistures (>30%). Altogether, this work demonstrates that dead bacteria and their eARGs are an overlooked path to antibiotic resistance. More generally, the spread of eARGs in antibiotic-free soil suggests that transformation allows genetic variants to establish in the absence of antibiotic selection and that the soil environment plays a critical role in regulating transformation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

Long-Period Comets and the Oort Cloud

The long-period comets pose a unique problem for the impact hazard problem. Because of their very long orbital] periods and generally large distances from the Sun, they cannot be surveyed and catalogued in the same manner as the near-Earth asteroids and short-period comets. They appear at random, uniformly distributed on the celestial sphere. Current technologies can detect long-period comets at distances of approx. 5 AU, giving somewhat less than a one year warning time for potential Earth impactors. The mean impact probability for a long-period comet crossing the Earth's orbit is 2.2 to 2.5 x 10(exp -9) per perihelion passage. The mean impact velocity is approximately 52 km sec-1 but the most probable impact energy is characterized by a velocity of 56 to 58 km/sec. The estimated current impact rate for cometary nuclei large enough to create 10 km diameter (or larger) craters on the Earth is between 5 x 10(exp -7) and 2.8 x 10(exp -6) per year, with a bed estimated value of 1.0 x 10(exp -6) per year. Nuclei large enough to initiate global climatic disturbances strike the Earth on average every 16 Myr. The impact frequency may be increased substantially for brief periods of time during cometary showers, initiated by major perturbations of the Oort cloud. Improved technologies are needed to detect approaching long-period comets at large heliocentric distances so as to increase the warning time for potential impactors.

Weissman, Paul R.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Use of Individual Flight Corridors to Avoid Vortex Wakes

Vortex wakes of aircraft pose a hazard to following aircraft until the energetic parts of their flow fields have decayed to a harmless level. It is suggested here that in-trail spacings between aircraft can be significantly and safely reduced by designing an individual, vortex-free flight corridor for each aircraft. Because each aircraft will then have its own flight corridor, which is free of vortex wakes while in use by the assigned aircraft, the time intervals between aircraft operations can be safely reduced to the order of seconds. The productivity of airports can then be substantially increased. How large the offset distances between operational corridors need to be to have them vortex free, and how airports need to be changed to accommodate an individual flight-corridor process for landing and takeoff operations, are explored. Estimates are then made of the productivity of an individual flight-corridor system as a function of the in-trail time interval between operations for various values of wake decay time, runway width, and the velocity of a sidewind. The results confirm the need for short time intervals between aircraft operations if smaller offset distances and increased productivity are to be achieved.

Rossow, Vernon J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Preliminary Assessment of the Interior Noise Environment in the Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR2)

The second-generation Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR2) serves as a representative vehicle under the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program (FAP) Subsonic Rotary Wing (SRW) project with a design goal to transport 90 passengers over a distance of 1800 km at a speed of 550 km/hr. The tiltrotor combines the vertical lift capability of a helicopter with the speed, altitude, and range of a turboprop airplane. The blade-passage frequency of the four-bladed rotor is as low as 6.9 Hz during cruise conditions. The resulting low-frequency acoustic excitation and its harmonics, combined with the anticipated use of lightweight composite and sandwich materials for the fuselage sidewall, may pose a challenge to achieving acceptable interior noise levels. The objective of the present study is to perform a preliminary assessment of the expected interior noise environment in the LCTR2 cabin. The approach includes a combination of semi-empirical, analytical, and statistical energy analysis methods. Because the LCTR2 is a notional vehicle, the prediction approach was also applied to the XV-15 tiltrotor and Bombardier Q400 turobprop aircraft to compare predictions with publicly available experimental data. Guidance for the expected interior noise levels in the LCTR2 was obtained by considering both the predicted exterior noise levels and the transmission loss of a basic fuselage sidewall consisting of a skin, porous layer and a trim panel. Structural and acoustic resonances are expected to coincide with low order harmonics of the blade passage frequency. The estimated sound pressure levels in the LCTR2 may not be acceptable when evaluated against known characteristics of human response to low frequency sound.

Grosveld, Ferdinand W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Common Cause Failure Evaluation of High Safety-significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems

Digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have many advantages over analog systems but also pose different engineering and technical challenges, such as potential threats due to common cause failures (CCFs). This paper proposes a Platform for Risk Assessment of DI&C (PRADIC) developed by Idaho National Laboratory for dealing with potential software CCFs in DI&C systems of NPPs. The methodology development of PRADIC on the quantitative evaluation of software CCFs in high safety-significant safety-related DI&C systems in NPPs is illustrated in this paper. In PRADIC, qualitative hazard analysis and quantitative reliability and consequence analysis are successively implemented to obtain quantitative risk information, compare with respective risk evaluation acceptance criteria, and provide suggestions for risk reduction and design optimization. A comprehensive case study was also performed and documented in this paper. Results show that PRADIC can effectively identify potential digital-based CCFs, estimate their failure probabilities, and evaluate their impacts to system and plant safety.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Probabilistic Model for Global EMIC Wave Activity Using Van Allen Probes Observations

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play a key role in radiation belt dynamics through resonant interactions. However, their low occurrence probability, high variability, and spatial intermittency pose challenges for accurate modeling. In this study, we present a machine learning (ML)-based global EMIC wave model built on the entire data set from the Van Allen Probes mission. To capture the distinct statistical characteristics of wave occurrence and amplitude, the model is separated into two modules: an occurrence model trained using ML techniques, and a wave amplitude model sampled from observed probability distributions. The input parameters are limited to real-time or predictable variables to ensure practical applicability. Our model shows strong performance across the entire test set and demonstrates improved predictive capability over a baseline random occurrence model, particularly during quiet geomagnetic conditions. Evaluation during both quiet and active periods confirms the model's ability to represent the clustered and intermittent nature of EMIC wave activity. Furthermore, the model provides global estimates of wave power, enabling integration with radiation belt electron data and showing signatures consistent with wave-induced scattering. We found a good correlation between the global wave activity from the model and relativistic electron observation by Van Allen Probes, regardless of the availability of in situ wave observations. The modular structure of the model also allows for straightforward expansion for additional wave properties, such as wave frequency, which can be modeled independently. This flexible, event-sensitive approach offers a promising framework for data-driven radiation belt simulations and space weather applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes are posed to have profound impact on forests and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different integrated assessment models (IAMs) by showcasing the spatially explicit exposure of forests to fire weather and the simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed description of the feedback from climate change to forest carbon uptake in IAMs. Few IAMs are currently accounting for feedback mechanisms like loss from fire disturbance. Consequently, many forestation areas proposed by IAM scenarios will be exposed to fire-promoting weather conditions and without costly prevention measures might be object to frequent burning. We conclude that the actual climate mitigation portfolio in IAM scenarios is subject to substantial uncertainty and that the risk of overly optimistic estimates of negative emission potential of forestation should be avoided. As a way forward we propose how to integrate more detailed climate information when modeling climate mitigation pathways heavily relying on forestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Nonlinear evolution of tidally distorted accretion disks: Two-dimensional simulations

According to a previously published linear analysis, the tidal distortion of accretion disks in binary star systems produces a local hydrodynamic instability to m = 1 internal waves, which may have arbitrarily small wavelengths in the absence of viscosity. The instability is three-dimensional and approximately incrompressible. To explore the nonlinear outcome of this instability, we develop a shearing-sheet approximation on scales comparable to the disk thickness. The large-scale azimuthal variation of the disk is represented by varying the local metric with time (local orbital phase). The hydrodynamic equations can then be posed two-dimensionally on local meridional planes. We solve these equations with a second-order gasdynamical code based on the Total-Variation-Diminishing scheme. Our simulations confirm the predicted linear growth rate. The modes saturate chaotically at velocities scaling as the product of the linear growth rate and the wavelength. If the wavelength is small compared with the disk thickness, the modes remain nearly incompressible even when nonlinear. The two-dimensional power spectrum of velocities after saturation is roughly isotropic and extends over a broad range of scales in an approximately power-law fashion. We measure the heating rate associated with the nonlinear dissipation of the modes. The dissipation implies a secular torque on the disk and a return of angular momentum to the secondary star via the tidal potential. The estimated torque is somewhat larger than the tidal torque produced by maximal disk viscosity (alpha approximately 1). At least in these two-dimensional simulations, however, there is no significant angular momentum flux within the disk.

Ryu, Dongsu↗