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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Prospective Coronary Heart Disease Screening in Asymptomatic Hodgkin Lymphoma Patients Using Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography: Results and Risk Factor Analysis

Purpose: To prospectively investigate the coronary artery status using coronary CT angiography (CCTA) in patients with Hodgkin lymphoma treated with combined modalities and mediastinal irradiation. Methods and Materials: All consecutive asymptomatic patients with Hodgkin lymphoma entered the study during follow-up, from August 2007 to May 2012. Coronary CT angiography was performed, and risk factors were recorded along with leukocyte telomere length (LTL) measurements. Results: One hundred seventy-nine patients entered the 5-year study. The median follow-up was 11.6 years (range, 2.1-40.2 years), and the median interval between treatment and the CCTA was 9.5 years (range, 0.5-40 years). Coronary artery abnormalities were demonstrated in 46 patients (26%). Coronary CT angiography abnormalities were detected in nearly 15% of the patients within the first 5 years after treatment. A significant increase (34%) occurred 10 years after treatment (P=.05). Stenoses were mostly nonostial. Severe stenoses were observed in 12 (6.7%) of the patients, entailing surgery with either angioplasty with stent placement or bypass grafting in 10 of them (5.5%). A multivariate analysis demonstrated that age at treatment, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia, as well as radiation dose to the coronary artery origins, were prognostic factors. In the group of patients with LTL measurements, hypertension and LTL were the only independent risk factors. Conclusions: The findings suggest that CCTA can identify asymptomatic individuals at risk of acute coronary artery disease who might require either preventive or curative measures. Conventional risk factors and the radiation dose to coronary artery origins were independent prognostic factors. The prognostic value of LTL needs further investigation.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Baseline Metabolic Tumor Volume and Total Lesion Glycolysis Are Associated With Survival Outcomes in Patients With Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Receiving Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Although previous studies have demonstrated the prognostic value of positron emission tomography (PET) parameters in other malignancies, the role of PET in pancreatic cancer has yet to be well established. We analyzed the prognostic utility of PET for patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) undergoing fractionated stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Materials and Methods: Thirty-two patients with LAPC in a prospective clinical trial received up to 3 doses of gemcitabine, followed by 33 Gy in 5 fractions of 6.6 Gy, using SBRT. All patients received a baseline PET scan prior to SBRT (pre-SBRT PET). Metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), and maximum and peak standardized uptake values (SUV{sub max} and SUV{sub peak}) on pre-SBRT PET scans were calculated using custom-designed software. Disease was measured at a threshold based on the liver SUV, using the equation Liver{sub mean} + [2 × Liver{sub sd}]. Median values of PET parameters were used as cutoffs when assessing their prognostic potential through Cox regression analyses. Results: Of the 32 patients, the majority were male (n=19, 59%), 65 years or older (n=21, 66%), and had tumors located in the pancreatic head (n=27, 84%). Twenty-seven patients (84%) received induction gemcitabine prior to SBRT. Median overall survival for the entire cohort was 18.8 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.7-22.0). An MTV of 26.8 cm{sup 3} or greater (hazard ratio [HR] 4.46, 95% CI 1.64-5.88, P<.003) and TLG of 70.9 or greater (HR 3.08, 95% CI 1.18-8.02, P<.021) on pre-SBRT PET scan were associated with inferior overall survival on univariate analysis. Both pre-SBRT MTV (HR 5.13, 95% CI 1.19-22.21, P=.029) and TLG (HR 3.34, 95% CI 1.07-10.48, P=.038) remained independently associated with overall survival in separate multivariate analyses. Conclusions: Pre-SBRT MTV and TLG are potential predictive factors for overall survival in patients with LAPC and may assist in tailoring therapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Reirradiation of Head and Neck Cancers With Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy: Outcomes and Analyses

Purpose: To review our 15-year institutional experience using intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) to reirradiate patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) and identify predictors of outcomes and toxicity. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively reviewed the records of 227 patients who received head and neck reirradiation using IMRT from 1999 to 2014. Patients treated with noncurative intent were excluded. Radiation-related acute and late toxicities were recorded. Prognostic variables included performance status, disease site, disease-free interval, chemotherapy, and RT dose and volume. Correlative analyses were performed separately for surgery and nonsurgery patients. Results: Two hundred six patients (91%) were retreated with curative intent, and 173 had HNSCC histology; 104 (50%) underwent salvage resection, and 135 (66%) received chemotherapy. Median follow-up after reirradiation was 24.7 months. Clinical outcomes were worse for HNSCC patients, with 5-year locoregional control, progression-free survival, and overall survival rates of 53%, 22%, and 32%, respectively, compared with 74%, 59%, and 79%, respectively, for non-HNSCC patients. On multivariate analysis, concurrent chemotherapy and retreatment site were associated with tumor control, whereas performance status was associated with survival. Favorable prognostic factors specific to surgery patients were neck retreatment and lack of extracapsular extension, whereas for nonsurgery patients, these were a nasopharynx subsite and complete response to induction chemotherapy. Actuarial rates of grade ≥3 toxicity were 32% at 2 years and 48% at 5 years, with dysphagia or odynophagia being most common. Increased grade ≥3 toxicity was associated with retreatment volume >50 cm{sup 3} and concurrent chemotherapy. Conclusions: Reirradiation with IMRT either definitively or after salvage surgery can produce promising local control and survival in selected patients with head and neck cancers. Treatment-related toxicity remains significant. Prognostic factors are emerging to guide multidisciplinary treatment approaches and clinical trial design.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach

Current system reliability methods (typically based on fault trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate reliability data from the asset to the system level in order to identify system critical points. However, employed asset reliability data are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). Sensor data, diagnostic assessments, and prognostic assessments are in fact not considered in plant reliability models used to inform system engineers on the most critical assets. In addition, the propagation of quantitative health data from the asset to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature and structure of health data elements (e.g., vibration spectra, temperature readings, expected failure time). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating available health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Here, this paper is directly addressing these two goals by proposing a different approach for reliability modeling that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. The propagation of health data from the asset to the system level is performed through fault tree models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated with asset performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired asset performance (i.e., its health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision-making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical assets.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

High Free-Tropospheric Aitken-Mode Aerosol Concentrations Buffer Cloud Droplet Concentrations in Large-Eddy Simulations of Precipitating Stratocumulus

A new Aitken mode aerosol microphysics scheme is developed for a large eddy simulation model in order to better investigate cloud-aerosol interactions in the marine boundary layer and to study the Aitken buffering hypothesis of McCoy et al. (2021), https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd033529. This scheme extends the single-mode two-moment prognostic aerosol scheme of Berner et al. (2013), https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12549-2013. Seven prognostic variables represent accumulation and Aitken log-normal aerosol modes in air and droplets as well as 3 gas species. Scavenging of interstitial and other unactivated aerosol by cloud and rain drops are treated using the scheme described in Berner et al. (2013), https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12549-2013. The scheme includes coagulation of unactivated aerosol and a simple chemistry model with gas phase H 2 SO 4 , SO 2 , and DMS as prognostic variables to capture basic influences of sulfur chemistry on the model aerosols. Nucleation of H 2 SO 4 aerosol particles from gas-phase H 2 SO 4 is neglected. A deep, precipitating stratocumulus case (VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study RF06) is used to test the new scheme. The presence of the Aitken mode aerosol increases the cloud droplet concentration through activation of the larger Aitken particles and delays the creation of an ultraclean, strongly precipitating cumulus state. Scavenging of unactivated accumulation and Aitken particles by cloud and precipitation droplets accelerates the collapse. Increasing either the above-inversion Aitken concentration or the surface Aitken flux increases the Aitken population in the boundary layer and prevents the transition to an ultraclean state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the Role of Macrophysics and Microphysics in Km-Scale Simulations of Mixed-Phase Clouds During Cold Air Outbreaks

Regional atmospheric models struggle to maintain supercooled liquid in mixed-phase clouds during polar cold-air outbreaks (CAOs). Previous studies focused on the parameterization of aerosol, microphysics and turbulence to understand the origin of this widespread model bias. This study investigates the role of sub-grid cloud fraction parameterizations (CFP) in the simulation of mixed-phase cloud. Km-scale simulations are performed for a large number of CAO cases over Norway, for which continuous ground observations were collected at one site over 6 months. We use a novel analysis that attributes the cloud-radiative errors to deficiencies in specific cloud regimes. We show that the CFP matters for cloud-radiative effects in CAOs, but that it is probably not the primary cause of the lack of liquid water in simulated mixed-phase clouds. Of all the CFP sensitivities explored in this study, the prognostic representation of both liquid and ice shows most promise in increasing the liquid water path. A newly proposed hybrid CFP with prognostic frozen and diagnostic liquid cloud fraction reproduces some of the benefits of the prognostic scheme at reduced cost and complexity. All simulations appear to produce too large precipitation particles. As a result, reducing the snow deposition rate increases the liquid water path and improves the precipitation size distributions, while simulations are less sensitive to reduced riming rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implementation and Evaluation of Emission‐Driven Land‐Atmosphere Coupled Simulation in E3SMv2.1

Emissions-driven (prognostic CO 2 ) simulations are essential for representing two-way carbon-climate feedback in Earth System Models. We present an emissions-driven land–atmosphere coupled biogeochemistry (BGC) configuration (BGCLNDATM_progCO2) in version 2.1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2.1). This is the first E3SM configuration that performs land-atmosphere emission-hindcasts. Here, we document its implementation, evaluate the model's performance against observations and other models, and propose a structured evaluation protocol for such emissions-driven simulations. We conducted transient historical simulations (1850–2014) with BGCLNDATM_progCO2 and compare them to reference simulations—a land-atmosphere coupled simulation without BGC and a standalone land simulation with BGC, both using prescribed CO 2 concentrations—and to observations. BGCLNDATM_progCO2 overestimates atmospheric CO 2 concentrations by 11–23 ppm yet stays within the 40-ppm spread CMIP6 emission-driven models and retains physical climate properties comparable to the reference runs. The CO 2 biases are partly attributed to underrepresented oceanic CO 2 uptake and inadequate representations of some terrestrial processes. In general, introducing prognostic CO 2 did not change physical climate metrics at the global scale but had larger regional effects, particularly over land where spatially heterogeneous CO 2 and prognostic leaf area index influenced surface energy balance. Finally, we propose a general evaluation protocol including spin-up assessment, atmospheric CO 2 benchmarking, physical climate evaluation, and land biogeochemical analysis to support scientific rigor and facilitate inter-model comparisons. The new configuration lays the groundwork for future enhancements, including improved terrestrial biogeochemical processes, integrated marine biogeochemistry, and additional human–Earth system interactions. These developments advance E3SM toward fully coupled emissions-driven simulations, enabling more accurate carbon–climate feedback projections and informing mitigation policy by providing physically consistent carbon-budget metrics for mitigation scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cross talk between RNA N6‐methyladenosine methyltransferase‐like 3 and miR‐186 regulates hepatoblastoma progression through Wnt/β‐catenin signalling pathway

Abstract Objectives N6‐methyladenosine (m6A) is a ubiquitous epigenetic RNA modification that plays a pivotal role in tumour development and metastasis. In this study, we aimed to investigate the expression profiling, clinical significance, biological function and the regulation of m6A‐related genes in hepatoblastoma (HB). Materials and Methods The mRNA and protein expression levels of m6A‐related genes were analysed using Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) and tissue microarray (TMA) cohort. Kaplan‐Meier analysis was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of m6A‐related genes in HB. Knockdown of m6A‐related genes was conducted to analyse its function on cell proliferation, migration and invasion. Furthermore, bioinformatics analysis and experimental verification were used to explore the potential molecular mechanism and signalling pathway. Results We found that most m6A‐related genes were significantly upregulated in HB tumour tissues. High levels of methyltransferase‐like 3 (METTL3, P = .013), YTHDF2 ( P = .037) and FTO ( P = .032) indicated poor clinical outcomes, and the upregulation of METTL3 was an independent prognostic factor in HB patients. Functional assays showed that knockdown of METTL3 could dramatically suppress the proliferation, migration and invasion of HB cells. In addition, METTL3 was identified to be a direct target of microRNA‐186 (miR‐186). Consistently, miR‐186 was low expressed in HB tumour tissues. Moreover, overexpression of miR‐186 significantly inhibited cell aggressive phenotype both in vitro and in vivo, while the inhibitory effect could be reversed by METTL3 overexpression. Mechanism study indicated that miR‐186/METTL3 axis contributed to the progression of HB via the Wnt/β‐catenin signalling pathway. Conclusions M6A‐related genes were frequently dysregulated in HB. miR‐186/METTL3/Wnt/β‐catenin axis might serve as novel therapeutic targets and prognostic biomarkers in HB.

Cui, Xichun↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-119: Analysis the Efficacy of Different Radiotherapy Methods and Failure Mode in No-Metastasis Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Purpose: To evaluate the curative effect of radio (chemo) therapy and mode of treatment failure in no-metastasis and lesion length ≤ 5.0cm esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Methods: There were 158 eligible patients were retrospectively analyzed, to analysis the curative effect of radio (chemo) therapy, prognosis factors, toxicity and prognostic index model. Results: To all patients the 1, 3, 5 overall survival rate were 83.54%, 52.53%, 32.58%, the local recurrence rate were 15.08%, 33.60% and 38.14%; distant metastasis rate were 10.64%, 25.21% and 36.06%; tumor specific survival rate were 76.64%, 54.07% and 44.51%. Multivariate analysis showed that patients with ECOG grade (χ2=13.945, P=0.000), short-term effect (χ2=19.360, P=0.000) and different radiotherapy methods (χ2=9.866, P=0.002) as the independent prognostic factors. Prognostic index model showed that the survival rate was significantly higher in the lower value of PI group than in the larger value of PI group (χ2=49.19, P=0.0000). In our whole group, there were simple locoregional recurrence (LR) 40 cases (25.3%), simple Distant metastasis (DM) 31 cases (19.6%), LR and DM in 14 cases (8.9%) after treatment. The chi-square test showed that there were no significant difference in the incidence of Elective Nodal Irradiation (ENI )and Involved Field Irradiation (IFI) patients with LR and DM ( χ2=2.363, 2.950, P=0.124, 0.085). Conclusion: Radio (chemo) therapy has a good curative effect in no-metastasis and lesion length ≤ 5.0cm ESCC patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

TU-CD-BRB-02: BEST IN PHYSICS (JOINT IMAGING-THERAPY): Identification of Molecular Phenotypes by Integrating Radiomics and Genomics

Purpose: To uncover the mechanistic connections between radiomic features, molecular pathways, and clinical outcomes, to develop radiomic based predictors of pathway activation states in individual patients, and to assess whether combining radiomic with clinical and genomic data improves prognostication. Methods: We analyzed two independent lung cancer cohorts totaling 351 patients, for whom diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans, gene-expression profiles, and clinical outcomes were available. The tumor phenotype was characterized based on 636 radiomic features describing tumor intensity, texture, shape and size. We performed an integrative analysis by developing and independently validating association modules of coherently expressed radiomic features and molecular pathways. These modules were statistically tested for significant associations to overall survival (OS), TNM stage, and pathologic histology. Results: We identified thirteen radiomic-pathway association modules (p < 0.05), the most prominent of which were associated with the immune system, p53 pathway, and other pathways involved in cell cycle regulation. Eleven modules were significantly associated with clinical outcomes (p < 0.05). Strong predictive power for pathway activation states in individual patients was observed using radiomics; the strongest per module predictions ranged from an intra-tumor heterogeneity feature predicting RNA III polymerase transcription (AUC 0.62, p = 0.03), to a tumor intensity dispersion feature predicting pyruvate metabolism and citric acid TCA cycle (AUC 0.72, p < 10−{sup 6}). Stepwise combinations of radiomic data with clinical outcomes and gene expression profiles resulted in consistent increases of prognostic power to predict OS (concordance index max = 0.73, p < 10−{sup 9}). Conclusion: This study demonstrates that radiomic approaches permit a non-invasive assessment of molecular and clinical characteristics of tumors, and therefore have the unprecedented potential to cost-effectively advance clinical decision-making using routinely acquired, standard-of-care imaging data. We show that prognostic value complementary to clinical and genomic information can be obtained by radiomic strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-D-207B-03: A PET-CT Radiomics Comparison to Predict Distant Metastasis in Lung Adenocarcinoma

Purpose: Early prediction of distant metastasis may provide crucial information for adaptive therapy, subsequently improving patient survival. Radiomic features that extracted from PET and CT images have been used for assessing tumor phenotype and predicting clinical outcomes. This study investigates the values of radiomic features in predicting distant metastasis (DM) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods: A total of 108 patients with stage II–III lung adenocarcinoma were included in this retrospective study. Twenty radiomic features were selected (10 from CT and 10 from PET). Conventional features (metabolic tumor volume, SUV, volume and diameter) were included for comparison. Concordance index (CI) was used to evaluate features prognostic value. Noether test was used to compute p-value to consider CI significance from random (CI = 0.5) and were adjusted for multiple testing using false rate discovery (FDR). Results: A total of 70 patients had DM (64.8%) with a median time to event of 8.8 months. The median delivered dose was 60 Gy (range 33–68 Gy). None of the conventional features from PET (CI ranged from 0.51 to 0.56) or CT (CI ranged from 0.57 to 0.58) were significant from random. Five radiomics features were significantly prognostic from random for DM (p-values < 0.05). Four were extracted from CT (CI = 0.61 to 0.63, p-value <0.01) and one from PET which was also the most prognostic (CI = 0.64, p-value <0.001). Conclusion: This study demonstrated significant association between radiomic features and DM for patients with locally advanced lung adenocarcinoma. Moreover, conventional (clinically utilized) metrics were not significantly associated with DM. Radiomics can potentially help classify patients at higher risk of DM, allowing clinicians to individualize treatment, such as intensification of chemotherapy) to reduce the risk of DM and improve survival. R.M. has consulting interests with Amgen.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-R-53: CT-Based Radiomics Analysis of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Treated with Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) is the standard of care for medically inoperable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients and has demonstrated excellent local control and survival. However, some patients still develop distant metastases and local recurrence, and therefore, there is a clinical need to identify patients at high-risk of disease recurrence. The aim of the current study is to use a radiomics approach to identify imaging biomarkers, based on tumor phenotype, for clinical outcomes in SBRT patients. Methods: Radiomic features were extracted from free breathing computed tomography (CT) images of 113 Stage I-II NSCLC patients treated with SBRT. Their association to and prognostic performance for distant metastasis (DM), locoregional recurrence (LRR) and survival was assessed and compared with conventional features (tumor volume and diameter) and clinical parameters (e.g. performance status, overall stage). The prognostic performance was evaluated using the concordance index (CI). Multivariate model performance was evaluated using cross validation. All p-values were corrected for multiple testing using the false discovery rate. Results: Radiomic features were associated with DM (one feature), LRR (one feature) and survival (four features). Conventional features were only associated with survival and one clinical parameter was associated with LRR and survival. One radiomic feature was significantly prognostic for DM (CI=0.670, p<0.1 from random), while none of the conventional and clinical parameters were significant for DM. The multivariate radiomic model had a higher median CI (0.671) for DM than the conventional (0.618) and clinical models (0.617). Conclusion: Radiomic features have potential to be imaging biomarkers for clinical outcomes that conventional imaging metrics and clinical parameters cannot predict in SBRT patients, such as distant metastasis. Development of a radiomics biomarker that can identify patients at high-risk of recurrence could facilitate personalization of their treatment regimen for an optimized clinical outcome. R.M. had consulting interest with Amgen (ended in 2015).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Advanced Two-Moment Bulk Microphysics for Global Models. Part II: Global Model Solutions and Aerosol–Cloud Interactions*

A modified microphysics scheme is implemented in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5). The new scheme features prognostic precipitation. The coupling between the microphysics and the rest of the model is modified to make it more flexible. Single-column tests show the new microphysics can simulate a constrained drizzling stratocumulus case. Substepping the cloud condensation (macrophysics) within a time step improves single-column results. Simulations of mixed-phase cases are strongly sensitive to ice nucleation. The new microphysics alters process rates in both single-column and global simulations, even at low (200 km) horizontal resolution. Thus, prognostic precipitation can be important, even in low-resolution simulations where advection of precipitation is not important. Accretion dominates as liquid water path increases in agreement with cloud-resolving model simulations and estimates from observations. The new microphysics with prognostic precipitation increases the ratio of accretion over autoconversion. Additionally, the change in process rates appears to significantly reduce aerosol–cloud interactions and indirect radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosols by up to 33% (depending on substepping) to below 1 W m-2 of cooling between simulations with preindustrial (1850) and present-day (2000) aerosol emissions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET imaging is associated with subsequent cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease

Background: The role and implementation of tau PET imaging for predicting subsequent cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) remains uncertain. This study was designed to evaluate the relationship between baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET and subsequent longitudinal change across multiple cognitive measures over 18 months. Methods: Our analyses incorporated data from 67 participants, including cognitively normal controls (n = 10) and β-amyloid (Aβ)-positive individuals ([ 18 F] florbetapir Aβ PET) with prodromal (n = 26), mild (n = 16), or moderate (n = 15) AD. Baseline measurements included cortical volume (MRI), tau burden ([ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET), and cognitive assessments [Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), 13-item version of the Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog13), and Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS)]. Cognitive assessments were repeated at 6-month intervals over an 18-month period. Associations between baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET indices and longitudinal cognitive performance were assessed via univariate (Spearman correlations) and multivariate (linear mixed effects models) approaches. The utility of potential prognostic tau PET cut points was assessed with ROC curves. Results: Univariate analyses indicated that greater baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET signal was associated with faster rates of subsequent decline on the MMSE, CDR, and ADAS-Cog13 across regions of interest (ROIs). In multivariate analyses adjusted for baseline age, cognitive performance, cortical volume, and Aβ PET SUVR, the prognostic performance of [ 18 F]GTP1 SUVR was most robust in the whole cortical gray ROI. When AD participants were dichotomized into low versus high tau subgroups based on baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 PET standardized uptake value ratios (SUVR) in the temporal (cutoff = 1.325) or whole cortical gray (cutoff = 1.245) ROIs, high tau subgroups demonstrated significantly more decline on the MMSE, CDR, and ADAS-Cog13. Conclusions: Our results suggest that [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET represents a prognostic biomarker in AD and are consistent with data from other tau PET tracers. Tau PET imaging may have utility for identifying AD patients at risk for more rapid cognitive decline and for stratification and/or enrichment of participant selection in AD clinical trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Fingerprints of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection in E3SM

The June 15, 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption is simulated in E3SM by injecting 10 Tg of SO 2 gas in the stratosphere, turning off prescribed volcanic aerosols, and enabling E3SM to treat stratospheric volcanic aerosols prognostically. This experimental prognostic treatment of volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere results in some realistic behaviors (SO 2 evolves into H 2 SO 4 which heats the lower stratosphere), and some expected biases (H 2 SO 4 aerosols sediment out of the stratosphere too quickly). Climate fingerprinting techniques are used to establish a Mt. Pinatubo fingerprint based on the vertical profile of temperature from the E3SMv1 DECK ensemble. By projecting reanalysis data and preindustrial simulations onto the fingerprint, the Mt. Pinatubo stratospheric heating anomaly is detected. Projecting the experimental prognostic aerosol simulation onto the fingerprint also results in a detectable heating anomaly, but, as expected, the duration is too short relative to reanalysis data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Influence of CAM5 Aerosol Configuration on Simulated Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic

This study examines the influence of prescribed and prognostic aerosol model configurations on the formation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic Ocean in Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The impact of aerosol parameterization is examined by investigating storm track density, genesis density, potential intensity, and genesis potential index. This work shows that both CAM5 configurations simulate reduced storm frequency when compared to observations and that differences in TC climatology between the model configurations can be explained by differences in the large-scale environment. The analysis shows that simulation with the prognostic aerosol parameterization scheme reasonably captures the observed interannual variability in tropical cyclones and aerosols (i.e., dust) in the North Atlantic, while simulation with the prescribed configuration (climatology) is less favorable. The correlation between dust and TCs in observations (i.e., reanalysis and satellite datasets) is shown to be negative, and this relationship was also found for the prognostic aerosol configuration despite an overall decrease in the frequency of TCs. This indicates that, to accurately replicate certain aspects of TC interannual variability, the aerosol configuration within CAM5 needs to account for the appropriate dust variability.

Huff, J. Jacob A. (ORCID:0000000329143817)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transformer Health Monitoring Using Dissolved Gas Analysis

As integral components of any power plant, transformers supply the generated electricity to the grid. However, a transformer’s cellulose-based paper insulation and the mineral oil in which it is immersed break down over time under standard operating conditions—or more rapidly due to potential faults within the system. As the transformer’s mineral oil breaks down, gases are released that can be measured and monitored. This technical brief exhibits a collection of diagnostic and prognostic techniques that utilities can adopt in lieu of labor-intensive periodic preventive maintenance routines. Furthermore, prognostic models have been incorporated using the latest version of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) standard (IEEE, 2019) for dissolved gas analysis (DGA), thus expanding it to include estimation of the time to maintenance. Overall, four different methodologies are explained, each of which aids in determining a transformer’s state of health. These methodologies include the Chendong model, the IEEE thermal life consumption model (IEEE, 2012), a diagnostic model for DGA, and a prognostic model for DGA that uses an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. An additional improvement for estimating missing system parameters by using monitoring data (i.e., a tool for parameter estimation utilizing Powell’s method) is presented, enabling the IEEE thermal life consumption model to benefit not only the collaborating power plant, but also the power industry at large.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1997

An Operational Computational Terminal Area PBL Prediction System

There are two fundamental goals of this research project. The first and primary goal is to develop a prognostic system which could satisfy the operational weather prediction requirements of the meteorological subsystem within the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS). The secondary goal is to perform indepth diagnostic analyses of the meteorological conditions affecting the Memphis field experiment held during August 1995. These two goals are interdependent because a thorough understanding of the atmospheric dynamical processes which produced the unique meteorology during the Memphis deployment will help us design a prognostic system for the planetary boundary layer (PBL) which could be utilized to support the meteorological subsystem within AVOSS. The secondary goal occupied much of the first year of the research project. This involved extensive data acquisition and indepth analyses of a spectrum of atmospheric observational data sets. Concerning the primary goal, the first part of the four-stage prognostic system in support of AVOSS entitled: Terminal Area PBL Prediction System (TAPPS) was also formulated and tested in a research environment during 1996. We describe this system, and the three stages which are planned to follow. This first part of a software system designed to meet the primary goal of this research project is relatively inexpensive to implement and run operationally.

Lin, Yuh-Lang↗