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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Passive Wireless Sensors for Realtime Temperature and Corrosion Monitoring of Coal Boiler Components Under Flexible Operation (Final Technical Report)

Researchers at West Virginia University (WVU) propose to demonstrate inexpensive wireless, high-temperature sensors for real-time monitoring of the temperature and corrosion of metal components, which are commonly used in coal-fired boilers. This study presents the development of cost-effective wireless high-temperature sensors for real-time temperature and corrosion monitoring in coal-fired boilers' metal components. The focus is on fabricating and evaluating chipless radio-frequency identification (RFID) sensors capable of operating between 25-1300 ºC. Efforts were directed towards designing passive RFID sensor and interrogator antenna with a broad frequency range, optimizing a microstrip patch antenna sensor integrated into a "peel-and-stick" format for efficient application to various metal specimens without altering their geometry. Additionally, this research aimed to assess the sensor responses under accelerated high-temperature conditions, correlating corrosion and cracking mechanisms with sensor data. An investigation of through-wall data acquisition techniques was also planned, facilitating unobtrusive monitoring of sensor responses housed within metal enclosures. Ultimately, this work sought to establish a robust passive wireless sensor system for the continuous health monitoring of metal components in operational settings, thereby contributing to enhanced safety and efficiency in coal-fired power plants.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tandem Photovoltaics Core Program Final Technical Report

The Tandem Photovoltaics Core Program was a multi-year initiative aimed at advancing hybrid tandem solar cell technologies to enhance solar module efficiency beyond the limits of single junction devices. This project focused on the development, testing, and scaling of prototype photovoltaic devices, with the goal of achieving commercial relevance and driving industry adoption. The work was divided into three tasks: 1) Comparative Analysis of Tandem Technologies: This task focused on quantifying energy yield under real-world conditions and assessing economic viability of tandems relative to silicon-based modules. The project's modeling framework incorporated performance data, cost of materials, and manufacturing process impacts to optimize tandem designs 2) Tandem Integration and Prototyping: In this task, we developed innovative tandem designs by combining metal halide perovskite (MHP) top cells and silicon (Si) bottom cells. The project focuses on both mechanical integration and direct deposition techniques to enable compatibility with commercially relevant Si technologies, such as passivated contact or PERC cells. 3) Scale-up and Reliability: This task addressed the challenges of large-area fabrication by developing scalable deposition methods and robust interconnection schemes for tandems. The project looked at different accelerated testing such as thermal cycling, damp heat exposure, and potential induced degradation, to ensure long-term stability of devices in field conditions. Tandem solar cells can greatly increase module efficiency beyond conventional single junction (SJ) devices, which are approaching their theoretical limit. There are many ways to fabricate a tandem cell or module in terms of materials used, configuration, and terminal connection. This SETO core project focused critical factors in enabling tandems to enter the market, including hardware integration, technoeconomic analysis (TEA), and energy yield analysis. We focused on MHP/Si hybrid tandem solar cells and modules as a model system for their versatility in module design comparisons, providing valuable insights for other tandem options. While champion cells with areas <1cm2 are regularly demonstrated by groups around the world, it is significantly more challenging to translate these advances into modules, and fewer institutions and companies are working at the module level. This project addressed questions about module fabrication, testing, and reliability that are hard to answer without actually fabricating prototypes. We also performed analysis and road-mapping activities to understand the potential for a wider variety of tandems, including all-perovskite tandems fabricated in collaboration with the Perovskite PV core program. Detailed technical results from this project are described for each task in Section 7.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computational design of high-entropy rare earth aluminum garnets for advanced thermal and environmental barrier coatings

To enhance the protection of Ni-based superalloys in gas turbine engines’ high-temperature environments, it’s crucial to develop advanced thermal/environmental barrier coating (T/EBC) materials with a balanced combination of thermal and mechanical properties. This optimization is essential to safeguard against chemical and thermal challenges. Here, in this study, we harness the power of density functional theory (DFT) in conjunction with combinatorial chemistry methodologies to engineer high-performance high-entropy rare earth disilicates of the RE 3 Al 5 O 12 family (where RE denotes Y, Gd, Er, and Yb). These materials are meticulously designed to exhibit superior phase stability, a targeted coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE), low lattice thermal conductivity, and robust mechanical properties. The determination of CTE values is accomplished through phonon calculations at various volume settings within the quasi-harmonic approximation, while lattice thermal conductivities are rigorously assessed employing the Debye-Callaway model, accounting for three distinct phonon processes. Our findings highlight the remarkable attributes of the solid solution (Y 1/4 Gd 1/4 Er 1/4 Yb 1/4 ) 3 Al 5 O 12 , which displays a reduction in lattice thermal conductivity compared to its individual constituents while maintaining a favorable range of CTE values. The novel T/EBC material, distinguished by their multifaceted functionalities, are poised to use in substantial enhancements in the performance of engines.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cu-induced robust Ni 2+ /Ni 3+ transition on amorphous Ni hydroxide-based electrocatalysts for advancing electrochemical ammonia oxidation and hydrogen evolution

The electrochemical ammonia oxidation reaction (AOR) is a promising anodic reaction for hydrogen production, offering a lower theoretical potential compared to oxygen evolution reaction. Despite this thermodynamic advantage, AOR suffers from sluggish multi-electron transfer reaction kinetics and the regeneration of catalytically active Ni 3+ species, which limits both activity and durability. In this study, amorphous NiCu bimetallic catalysts were prepared via facile precipitating metal nitrate deposition (PMND) method. The addition of Cu induces a robust Ni 2+ /Ni 3+ transition, stabilizing catalytically active Ni 3+ species and modulating the electronic structure of Ni. It alters the oxidation and desorption behavior of nitrogen-containing intermediates and facilitating their conversions to NO x species, resulting in fast active site regeneration. Furthermore, amorphous structure provides abundant dangling bonds, which enhances the intrinsic reactivity and accessibility of active sites rather than increasing the number of active sites. As a result, these effects accelerate the overall reaction kinetics. The optimized NiCu 5:1 catalyst achieved an ammonia removal efficiency of ∼100 % and a hydrogen production rate of 2.45 mmol/(h∙cm 2 ) at 1.6 V RHE .

Amorphous electrocatalyst↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solving high-dimensional partial integral differential equations: The finite expression method

Partial integro-differential equations (PIDEs) have broad applications in the sciences, from electro-magnetism to options pricing. Here, in this paper, we introduce a new finite expression method (FEX) to solve PIDEs. This approach builds upon the original FEX and its inherent advantages with new advances: 1) A novel method of parameter grouping is proposed to reduce the number of coefficients in high-dimensional function approximation; 2) A Taylor series approximation method is implemented to significantly improve the computational efficiency and accuracy of the evaluation of the integral terms of PIDEs. The new FEX based method, denoted FEX-PG to indicate the addition of the parameter grouping (PG) step to the algorithm, provides both high accuracy and interpretable numerical solutions, with the outcome being an explicit equation that facilitates intuitive understanding of the underlying solution structures. These features are often absent in traditional methods, such as finite element methods (FEM) and finite difference methods, as well as in deep learning-based approaches. To benchmark our method against recent advances, we apply the new FEX-PG to solve benchmark PIDEs in the literature. In high-dimensional settings, FEX-PG exhibits strong and robust performance, achieving relative errors on the order of single precision machine epsilon, significantly outperforming existing approaches based on neural networks.

Combinatorial optimization↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen Analysis by Gas Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry

The detection of hydrogen in complex gas mixtures is essential for many applications. Conventional approaches such as gas chromatography (GC) with thermal conductivity detection (TCD) and residual gas analyzers (RGAs) face significant limitations: TCD exhibits poor response when helium is used as a carrier gas, whereas RGAs lack chromatographic separation, preventing reliable quantification of hydrogen because of interference from other species. Traditional GC methods rely on dual-column configurations with packed or molecular-sieve porous layer open tubular (PLOT) columns to separate hydrogen from O2, N2, CO, CO2, CH4, and other hydrocarbons, increasing system complexity and limiting compatibility with mass spectrometry (MS) detection. In this work, we developed and validated a robust GC–MS method capable of directly detecting and quantifying hydrogen using electron ionization (EI) without dopants, reagent gases, or ion–molecule reaction schemes. By integrating a modified EI source and a cryogenically cooled single capillary column configuration, we achieved baseline separation of hydrogen from all major permanent gases and hydrocarbons in a refinery gas mixture using helium as the carrier gas. The method demonstrated excellent linearity, high sensitivity, and exceptional reproducibility. Adjustable sample-loop volumes and split ratios enabled optimization of peak shape and signal-to-noise performance for trace-level and percent-level hydrogen concentrations. Beyond hydrogen quantitation, the method provides simultaneous compositional profiling of other gases in a mixture in a single run, making it valuable for a wide range of tasks.

Lobodin, Vlad [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Modeling to Advance Novel Medical Isotopes for Radiotheranostics: A DOE-NIH Joint Workshop Executive Summary

The DOE-NIH Joint Workshop on Computational Modeling to Advance Novel Medical Isotopes for Radiotheranostics, held on September 27, 2024, brought together experts from government, academia, and industry to address critical challenges in radionuclide production and clinical translation. Here, the workshop emphasized interdisciplinary collaboration, particularly between the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH), to strengthen the domestic isotope supply, streamline regulatory pathways, and further integrate computational tools into radiopharmaceutical therapy (RPT). Key discussions explored the role of AI-driven modeling, machine learning, and digital twin technologies in optimizing dosimetry, dynamically personalizing treatments, and reducing time to clinical adoption. Advances in predictive computational modeling were highlighted as essential for improving radionuclide yield, purity, and synthesis efficiency. Regulatory considerations and equitable access were central themes, with participants advocating for harmonized global standards, adaptive trial designs, and expanded infrastructure for clinical implementation. DOE computational and production infrastructure was emphasized. Future priorities identified include increased investment in radionuclide production infrastructure, expanded workforce development in radiopharmaceutical sciences and computational modeling, and the creation of robust public-private partnerships. The workshop concluded that continued strategic collaboration and sustained resources will be vital for advancing next-generation radiotheranostics, ensuring safe and effective therapies accessible to all patients.

digital twins↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Automated Weld Quality Monitoring and Control

Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) is a critical process in the automotive industry, valued for its cost-effectiveness, short cycle time, and robustness. However, achieving consistent high-quality joints remains challenging due to the complex interplay of various factors, like materials, processes, and manufacturing uncertainties, etc. Under the collaborative project between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and General Motors (GM), we have developed a robust and expansible machine learning (ML) framework aimed at enhancing quality control in RSW. By harnessing the power of machine learning, we have developed the ability to ensure every aspect of the welding process, from the initial process design stage to the final weld joint quality. The framework operates by analyzing a variety of data streams, including in-line process signals, process parameters, materials, and postprocessed weld joint data. Through this analysis, the models have been trained to detect deviations from optimal quality standards, leveraging their ability to identify signature data patterns and anomalies within in-line signals and construct complex correlations between these signals and weld quality parameters. Meanwhile, the machine learning framework is designed to adapt to a variety of materials, including high strength steels and aluminum alloys, etc. Its flexible architecture facilitates the incorporation of diverse data sources and features, enabling precise modeling and prediction across a broad range of material properties and weld quality variables. The expansible ML frameworks represent a promising transformation in weld quality monitoring and control, empowering industry to achieve high levels of efficiency, consistency, and reliability in manufacturing.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Voucher Opportunity 5-15: Independent Assessment of Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) Technologies and Practices for Enhanced Rock Weathering (CRADA 718) Abstract

Development of robust, transparent, and precise monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) technologies and practices is critical for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) project developers to comply with regulatory and permitting requirements, voluntary carbon market (VCM) protocols, and to ensure safety while reducing environmental impacts. Enhanced rock weathering (ERW)-based CDR technologies focus on removing atmospheric carbon through conversion into thermodynamically stable solid or aqueous carbonate forms for permanent storage (i.e., mineralization). This highly durable form of CDR enhances naturally occurring silicate rock weathering cycles by optimizing application of finely-ground silicate rock particles (i.e., from basalt) on terrestrial agricultural lands to accelerate natural silicate rock weathering and mineralization. Enhanced rock weathering may also provide improved crop yields and enhance soil health. A critical aspect for commercialization of these technologies is the development of MRV to quantify the net removal and durable storage of atmospheric CO 2 . For ERW systems, it is essential to accurately characterize the mineral feedstock selected for application to establish the baseline geochemical composition, mineral dissolution rates, and carbon removal potential of the feedstocks to estimate overall net removal. Given the difficulty with conducting MRV for ERW in diverse soil/environment types, over large application areas, and due to complex chemical reaction networks, this project will accelerate understanding towards consensus on best practices for MRV. The overall objectives of the proposed voucher project are to: 1) Characterize and analyze feedstock(s) intended for ERW field application by Lithos Carbon (“Voucher Recipient”/ “CRADA Participant”) to determine overall mineralization potential; 2) Facilitate knowledge transfer and documentation of experimental protocols, instrumentation, and other relevant best practices; and 3) Support the Voucher Recipient’s broader technology commercialization and ERW Research Facility development plans. This work will align with the Voucher Recipient’s MRV plans for field sites and build upon complementary efforts conducted by PNNL on mineralization MRV.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Automated Weld Quality Monitoring and Control

Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) is a critical process in the automotive industry, valued for its cost-effectiveness, short cycle time, and robustness. However, achieving consistent high-quality joints remains challenging due to the complex interplay of various factors, like materials, processes, and manufacturing uncertainties, etc. Under the collaborative project between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and General Motors (GM), we have developed a robust and expansible machine learning (ML) framework aimed at enhancing quality control in RSW. By harnessing the power of machine learning, we have developed the ability to ensure every aspect of the welding process, from the initial process design stage to the final weld joint quality. The framework operates by analyzing a variety of data streams, including in-line process signals, process parameters, materials, and postprocessed weld joint data. Through this analysis, the models have been trained to detect deviations from optimal quality standards, leveraging their ability to identify signature data patterns and anomalies within in-line signals and construct complex correlations between these signals and weld quality parameters. Meanwhile, the machine learning framework is designed to adapt to a variety of materials, including high strength steels and aluminum alloys, etc. Its flexible architecture facilitates the incorporation of diverse data sources and features, enabling precise modeling and prediction across a broad range of material properties and weld quality variables. The expansible ML frameworks represent a promising transformation in weld quality monitoring and control, empowering industry to achieve high levels of efficiency, consistency, and reliability in manufacturing.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stabilizing dynamic subsea power cables using Bi-stable nonlinear energy sinks

This study investigates vibration mitigation of dynamic subsea cables through passive bi-stable nonlinear energy sinks (B-NESs). These devices suppress vibration energy in a broadband way, and can be regarded as extensions of classical linear tuned mass dampers (TMDs) which are narrowband devices. Through the open-source MoorDyn library, we simulated the vibrations of a vertical subsea cable equipped with a set of B-NESs. Multi-objective optimization was performed to detect the B-NES parameters for optimal mitigation of the cable vibrations. Advanced signal processing verified the efficacy of the optimized B-NESs not only to rapidly absorb and locally dissipate vibration energy, but also to nonlinearly scatter vibration energy from low to high frequencies within the cable itself. This last feature is especially beneficial for vibration mitigation of the undersea cable, as at higher frequencies the cable vibrations exhibit drastically reduced amplitudes and are more effectively dissipated by inherent structural damping and hydrodynamic radiation damping. This contrasts with traditional TMDs which can mitigate vibration only at a single frequency. Furthermore, our robustness study confirms the B-NES's effectiveness under even varying environmental conditions. Overall, the B-NES's capacity for broadband vibration mitigation renders it a promising retrofit solution for improving the performance and operational safety of dynamic power cables in offshore wind farms and other marine applications.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feature Based Qualification of 17-4PH Stainless Steel to Evaluate Location-Specific Variability in Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing

Qualifying large-scale metal additive manufacturing (M-AM) technologies such as wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) can be challenging. This is especially significant in precipitation hardened martensitic stainless steels like SS 17-4PH, where thermal histories induce location-specific microstructural variability and property anisotropy. The Department of Defense (DOD) and the United States Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Ground Vehicle Systems Center (GVSC) Ground Vehicle Materials Engineering (GVME) aim to build robust and qualified large-scale M-AM workflows that could reduce the time and cost through quick and informed evaluation, testing, and development of feedstock, processes, and parts. The report presents the findings from the collaborative efforts between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the U.S. Army GVSC GVME. The aim of this project was to develop a geometric feature-based qualification framework for WAAM of SS 17-4PH components. This report outlines selection methodology of representative build geometries, optimization of WAAM process parameters, in-situ monitoring, microstructure-property evaluation, thermal simulations, as well as data visualization techniques incorporated in this project. The results from this project demonstrate a clear understanding of thermal history dependent phase evolution and consequent location-specific property variations in WAAM of SS 17-4PH. These results in conjunction with the data-driven methodologies used in this project are expected to reduce qualification timelines, improve predictability, and accelerate the development of reliable feature-based qualification strategies for part production via large-scale M-AM technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Practical Scalability of LuGo: Benchmarking the HHL Algorithm Using an Enhanced QPE Algorithm

The HHL algorithm is a prominent quantum algorithm that offers exponential speedup over its classical counterparts for solving a system of linear equations. However, synthesizing and executing HHL circuits demand significant computational resources from both classical and quantum systems. In this paper, we benchmark the HHL algorithm using the optimized Quantum Phase Estimation (QPE) generation algorithm, LuGo \cite{lu2025lugo}, to enhance its scalability and efficiency. We leverage the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center's (NERSC) Perlmutter supercomputer to evaluate the scalability of generating HHL circuits and to measure the time to simulate the generated circuits. Additionally, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the algorithm's performance on various state-of-the-art superconducting and trapped-ion quantum devices, including studies on qubit connectivity, fidelity comparisons, and hardware compatibility and robustness. Our results offer preliminary insights into potential practical applications of the HHL algorithm enabled by LuGo and the performance of various types of quantum hardware.

Lu, Chao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000179346933)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing Selection Pressures and Pest Management to Maximize Cultivation Yield (OSPREY) (Final Technical Report)

This project was proposed in response to AOI 1, Cultivation Intensification Processes for Algae, within the FY19 Bioenergy Technologies Office Multi-Topic Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA Number: DE-FOA-0002029). The work was designed to address a critical industry need to improve annualized productivity, stability, and quality of algal production strains for biofuels and bioproducts. The overall project goals were to generate process innovations rooted in established outdoor systems for strain selection, improvement, maintenance, and cultivation as well as pest detection and tracking. Planned advances included a 50% improvement in harvest yield based on AFDW (g m 2 d -1 ), 50% improvement in robustness based on stability metrics (e.g., high-productivity cultivation days, pond uptime), and 20% improvement in conversion yield. Individually, each of our planned process improvements (e.g., pest tracking) had the potential to increase productivity. However, to realize increases in yield at the system level, improvements to one unit’s process must be balanced against potential effects on other processes. For example, changes to strains, cultivation, and pest management developed in isolation may hurt other unit operations. Therefore, a critical success factor of the project was the integration of the pipeline components, achieved through iterative field-to- (short term) lab testing. In addition, through sustainability models, we evaluated how improvements would alter industry scenarios.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phase-field modeling of diffusion bonding in 316H stainless steel: Impact of processing conditions on grain morphology and bonding quality

A novel multi-phase, multi-component phase‐field model is presented to study the diffusion bonding of 316H stainless steel. Combined with targeted experimental investigations, this model simulates the bond-growth process and predicts the bonding quality. Unlike previous models, our approach captures the simultaneous evolution of voids and grain structures, while quantifying bonding quality using defined bonding ratio. A comprehensive analysis of bond process control is performed by changing temperature, pressure and surface roughness observing the resulting bond structure, which is consistent with experimental observations and analytical predictions. Temperature is determined to be the dominant factor, with the transition from a flat to a robust bond occurring between 1000 °C and 1050 °C. At the ideal bonding temperature of 1050 °C, a surface roughness exceeding 0.6 μm or an applied stress below 4 MPa results in poor bonding quality. Beyond this, higher pressures and smoother surfaces reduce void size, accelerate void shrinkage, and lead to improved bond integrity. This diffuse-interface model can be extended to other material systems if supplied with appropriate thermodynamic and kinetic data. In conclusion, this makes it an effective modeling platform for optimizing high-temperature diffusion bonding and developing reliable bonded components such as compact heat exchangers.

Diffusion bonding↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convergence Analysis of the Alternating Anderson–Picard Method for Nonlinear Fixed-Point Problems

Anderson acceleration (AA) has been widely used to solve nonlinear fixed-point problems due to its rapid convergence. This work focuses on a variant of AA in which multiple Picard iterations are performed between each AA step, referred to as the Alternating Anderson–Picard (AAP) method. Furthermore, despite introducing more “slow” Picard iterations, this method has been shown to be efficient and even more robust in both linear and nonlinear cases. However, there is a lack of theoretical analysis for AAP in the nonlinear case. In this paper, we address this gap by establishing the equivalence between AAP and a multisecant-GMRES method that uses GMRES to solve a multisecant linear system at each iteration. From this perspective, we show that AAP “converges” to the Newton-GMRES method. Specifically, as the residual approaches zero, the multisecant matrix, the approximate Jacobian inverse, the search direction, and the optimization gain of AAP converge to their counterparts in the Newton-GMRES method. These connections provide insights for analyzing the asymptotic convergence properties of AAP. Consequently, we show that AAP is locally 𝑞-linear convergent and provide an upper bound for the convergence factor of AAP. To validate the theoretical results, numerical examples are provided.

Anderson acceleration↗
DOE OSTI2025

Compact fiber-coupled narrowband two-mode squeezed light source

Quantum correlated states of light, such as squeezed states, are a fundamental resource for the development of quantum technologies, as they are needed for applications in quantum metrology, quantum computation, and quantum communications. It is thus critical to develop compact, efficient, and robust sources to generate such states. Here, we report on a compact, narrowband, fiber-coupled source of two-mode squeezed states of light at 795 nm based on four-wave mixing (FWM) in an 85 Rb atomic vapor. The source is designed in a small modular form factor, with two input fiber-coupled beams, the seed and pump beams required for the FWM, and two output fibers, one for each of the modes of the squeezed state. The system is optimized for low pump power (135 mW) to achieve a maximum intensity-difference squeezing of 4.4 dB after the output of fibers at an analysis frequency of 1 MHz. Furthermore, the narrowband nature of the source makes it ideal for atomic-based quantum sensing and quantum networking configurations that rely on atomic quantum memories. Such a source paves the way for a versatile and portable platform for applications in quantum information science.

Jain, Umang [University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (U↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning of factors for improving oyster hatchery production

Oyster aquaculture and restoration in the Chesapeake Bay are vital, yet hatcheries frequently struggle with inconsistent larval growth and sudden mass mortality events. Unpredictable disruptions in larval production cause large economic losses, represent a perceived risk to growers, and impede industry expansion. To better understand associations between production yield and its potential predictors, we applied machine learning (random forest, and neural network) and statistical (generalized additive model) models to a comprehensive dataset of environmental, water quality, and operational parameters from a Maryland oyster hatchery, aiming to identify key yield predictors and develop a robust forecasting tool. We used recursive Boruta algorithm for variable selection, pinpointing critical predictors, and employed cross-validation to fine-tune model settings. Shapley value analysis offered crucial insights into model interpretations, highlighting week number, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, salinity, turbidity, and fecundity as primary drivers of yield variability. For low-yield cases, salinity-related variables were particularly important. Our findings provide an early warning system for potential production downturns, empowering hatchery operators to make data-driven decisions for optimizing water conditions, feeding schedules, and broodstock management. By boosting predictability and efficiency, this research directly supports economic stability of the oyster industry and ecological health of the Chesapeake Bay.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗