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At least 559 records · Page 31

Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Assessment of Dry Cask Structures

systems the concrete shall not only provide shielding but insures stability of the upright canister, facilitates anchoring, allows ventilation, and provides physical protection against theft, severe weather and natural (seismic) as well as man-made events (blast incidences). Given the need to remain functional for 40 years or even longer in case of interim storage, the concrete outerpack and the internal canister components need to be evaluated with regard to their long-term ability to perform their intended design functions. Just as evidenced by deteriorating concrete bridges, there are reported visible degradation mechanisms of dry storage systems especially when high corrosive environments are considered in maritime locations. The degradation of reinforced concrete is caused by multiple physical and chemical mechanisms, which may be summarized under the heading of environmental aging. The underlying hygro-thermal transport processes are accelerated by irradiation effects, hence creep and shrinkage need to include the effect of chloride penetration, alkali aggregate reaction as well as corrosion of the reinforcing steel. In light of the above, the two main objectives of this project are to (1) develop a probabilistic multi-hazard assessment framework, and (2) through experimental and numerical research perform a comprehensive assessment under combined earthquake loads and aging induced deterioration, which will also provide data for the development and validation of the probabilistic framework.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Analysis of Data Fusion Between Waveform Events and Radionuclide Detections Reported in 2021 by the International Data Centre

During this project, we assessed the percentage of events reported by the International Data Centre (IDC) that are candidates for evaluation using data fusion methods. We calculated the percentage of waveform (seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound, SHI) events that may be associated with radionuclide (RN) detections and vice versa. For this task, data fusion means identifying RN detections that may be associated with SHI events. The task of producing a fused SHI and RN bulletin is included in the IDC operational manual. As of 2022, the production of a fused event bulletin remains incomplete, largely because methods for producing the bulletin are under development. Nonetheless, simple methods for data fusion have been developed and preliminary software tools are available at the IDC to associate SHI events and RN detections. This report is a first look at the percentage of SHI events that may be candidates for fusion with RN detections or bulletins. One year of IDC bulletin data (2021) is considered in this report. It is important to note that there were no known nuclear explosions during this time period. Hence, we expect that events during this time period would generate SHI and RN signals. If many SHI events are candidates for fusion with RN data, greater priority should be placed on establishing screening procedures before and/or during the fusion process. By contrast, if the number of candidate events is diminishingly small, then data fusion is not a driver for further development of event or detection screening at the IDC. LLNL reviewed the events reported in the Standard Event Bulletin (SEB) and determined which events are candidates for fusion with the Reviewed Radionuclide Reports (RRR). Much of the work involves establishing a metric or metrics for determining whether a Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) event is a candidate for data fusion.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessing I 2 S-LWR economic competitiveness using systematic differential capital cost evaluation methodology

One of the major factors impeding nuclear power plant (NPP) construction is their economics. In this study, a systematic differential economics evaluation approach was developed through the use of the Code of Accounts guidelines to assess the costs of nuclear power plants. The methodology, entirely based on publicly available data, may serve as a template to evaluate direct costs for reactors of any size and design at any stage of developments. In particular, this approach was used to assess the costs of the Integral Inherently Safe Light Water Reactor (I 2 S-LWR). The I 2 S-LWR is a design concept of a large (~1000 MWe) light water reactor. One of its key design features promoting inherent safety is implementation of an integral primary circuit configuration, which however necessitates a compact design of the core and primary circuit components. Through the methodology here presented, a representative loop PWR design was taken as a reference and the differential cost was estimated for each individual account based on the design difference, or similarity. Cost scaling techniques were applied to the accounts representing systems that differ from the ones of the reference PWR. Cost estimating techniques were used to evaluate cost of innovative components that are not part of standard PWR designs. By evaluating the cost difference of the I 2 S-LWR from the standard PWR, rather than the absolute cost, the uncertainty in the estimate is reduced. A similar approach was used by ORNL to estimate the cost of a Fluoride-salt High-temperature Reactor (FHR). A traditional four-loop PWR plant with a core thermal power of 3417 MWth (1144 MWe) was selected as the reference. Costs for that plant were prepared in 1978 by the Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Economics Data Base (EEDB), averaging actual cost incurred in the construction of several nuclear power plants (NPP), itemized with a great level of detail according to the Code of Accounts. This best estimate costs are denoted PWR12-BE. For each account, the cost of equipment, site labor and site material is provided. Industry experts at Westinghouse Electric Company performed a “sanity check” of the cost items, adjusting the cost of several items to match the current market and supply chain data. The detailed cost assessment of I 2 S-LWR was performed, systematically analyzing cost for each account, and applying the differential economics approach. First, Relative importance of each account, i.e., its contribution to the total cost was established, to help focus analysis on the most significant contributors. Moreover, the accounts describing components that are different than that of the PWR12-BE were identified. The integral configuration of the reactor has important implications on the cost of the reactor plant equipment (accounts 22x). Turbine generator equipment (Accounts 23x) is not believed to be much different than that of the reference design. I 2 S-LWR structures (Accounts 21x) mainly differ from that of a standard LWR as several buildings (containment building, shield building, annex building, waste processing building, fuel storage building) are integrated into a single building (nuclear island). Yardwork has a higher cost for the I 2 S-LWR, as the NI is partially below grade. On the other hand, due to its compact Nuclear Island footprint, I 2 S-LWR facilitates (and includes in its reference version) the use of seismic isolators, which contribute to reducing the direct cost. The total capital investment cost (TCIC), on the $/kW basis, of I 2 S-LWR is 5.84% lower than that of PWR12-BE, in spite of the lower power output of I 2 S-LWR. However, for the Western US (0.7 g), benefits of the seismic isolation are more pronounced, and the I 2 S-LWR total capital investment cost is 13.02% lower than that of PWR12-BE. If the I 2 S-LWR is compared to a PWR10-BE (traditional loop design, but scaled to the same power level as I 2 S-LWR), the savings are even higher, in the range 11.12%–17.89%. The analysis indicates that I 2 S-LWR has potential to offer an economically attractive design, with TCIC lower than that of a nuclear power plant based on a traditional loop PWR design. In other words, I 2 S-LWR design offers significantly enhanced safety, while at the same time improving economics. The differential economics approach developed in this paper can be used in identifying changes in cost of key components in order to improve the economics of a nuclear reactor design. The method can also help compare the economics of advanced Generation IV reactors and innovative water-cooled SMR (Small Modular Reactors) with respect to standard LWR technologies. In summary, the differential economics approach and can be used as a tool capable of helping stakeholder decisions.

Economic↗

Could Road Constructions Be More Hazardous Than an Earthquake in Terms of Mass Movement?

Roads can have a significant impact on the frequency of mass wasting events in mountainous areas. However, characterizing the extent and pervasiveness of mass movements over time has rarely been documented due to limitations in available data sources to consistently map such events. We monitored the evolution of a road network and assessed its effect on mass movements for a 11-year window in Arhavi, Turkey. The main road construction projects run in the area are associated with a hydroelectric power plant as well as other road extension works and are clearly associated with the vast majority (90.1%) of mass movements in the area. We also notice that the overall number and size of the mass movements are much larger than in the naturally-occurring comparison area. This means that the sediment load originating from the anthropogenically induced mass movements is larger than its counterpart associated with naturally occurred landslides. Notably, this extra sediment load could cause river channel aggregation, reduce accommodation space and as a consequence, it could lead to an increase in the probability and severity of flooding along the river channel. This marks a strong and negative effect of human activities on the natural course of earth surface processes. We also compare frequency-area distributions of human-induced mass movements mapped in this study and co-seismic landslide inventories from the literature. By doing so, we aim to better understand the consequences of human effects on mass movements in a comparative manner. Our findings show that the damage generated by the road construction in terms of sediment loads to river channels is compatible with the possible effect of a theoretical earthquake with a magnitude greater than Mw=6.0.

Hakan Tanyas↗

An Application of the SSHAC Level 3 Process to the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Nuclear Facilities at the Hanford Site, Eastern Washington, USA

Under the sponsorship of the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the electric utility Energy Northwest, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is conducting a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) within the framework of a SSHAC Level 3 procedure (Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee; Budnitz et al., 1997). Specifically, the project is being conducted following the guidelines and requirements specified in NUREG-2117 (USNRC, 2012b) and consistent with approach given in the American Nuclear Standard ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. The collaboration between DOE and Energy Northwest is spawned by the needs of both organizations for an accepted PSHA with high levels of regulatory assurance that can be used for the design and safety evaluation of nuclear facilities. DOE committed to this study after performing a ten-year review of the existing PSHA, as required by DOE Order 420.1C. The study will also be used by Energy Northwest as a basis for fulfilling the NRC’s 10CFR50.54(f) requirement that the western US nuclear power plants conduct PSHAs in conformance with SSHAC Level 3 procedures. The study was planned and is being carried out in conjunction with a project Work Plan, which identifies the purpose of the study, the roles and responsibilities of all participants, tasks and their associated schedules, Quality Assurance (QA) requirements, and project deliverables. New data collection and analysis activities are being conducted as a means of reducing the uncertainties in key inputs to the PSHA. It is anticipated that the results of the study will provide inputs to the site response analyses at multiple nuclear facility sites within the Hanford Site and at the Columbia Generating Station.

Nuclear Facilities↗

Numerical Simulation Applications in the Design of EGS Collab Experiment 1

The United States Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) is funding a collaborative investigation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) processes at the meso-scale. This study, referred to as the EGS Collab project, is a unique opportunity for scientists and engineers to investigate the creation of fracture networks and circulation of fluids across those networks under in-situ stress conditions. The EGS Collab project is envisioned to comprise three experiments and the site for the first experiment is on the 4850 Level (4,850 feet below ground surface) in phyllite of the Precambrian Poorman formation, at the Sanford Underground Research Facility, located at the former Homestake Gold Mine, in Lead, South Dakota. Principal objectives of the project are to develop a number of intermediate-scale field sites and to conduct well-controlled in situ experiments focused on rock fracture behavior and permeability enhancement. Data generated during these experiments will be compared against predictions of a suite of computer codes specifically designed to solve problems involving coupled thermal, hydrological, geomechanical, and geochemical processes. Comparisons between experimental and numerical simulation results will provide code developers with direction for improvements and verification of process models, build confidence in the suite of available numerical tools, and ultimately identify critical future development needs for the geothermal modeling community. Moreover, conducting thorough comparisons of models, modelling approaches, measurement approaches and measured data, via the EGS Collab project, will serve to identify techniques that are most likely to succeed at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE), the GTO's flagship EGS research effort. As noted, outcomes from the EGS Collab project experiments will serve as benchmarks for computer code verification, but numerical simulation additionally plays an essential role in designing these meso-scale experiments. This paper describes specific numerical simulations supporting the design of Experiment 1, a field test involving hydraulic stimulation of two fractures from notched sections of the injection borehole and fluid circulation between sub-horizontal injection and production boreholes in each fracture individually and collectively, including the circulation of chilled water. Whereas the mine drift allows for accurate and close placement of monitoring instrumentation to the developed fractures, active ventilation in the drift cooled the rock mass within the experimental volume. Numerical simulations were executed to predict seismic events and magnitudes during stimulation, initial fracture orientations for smooth horizontal wellbores, pressure requirements for fracture initiation from notched wellbores, fracture propagation during stimulation between the injection and production boreholes, tracer travel times between the injection and production boreholes, produced fluid temperatures with chilled water injections, pressure limits on fluid circulation to avoid fracture growth, temperature environment surrounding the 4850 Level drift, and fracture propagation within a stress field altered by drift excavation, ventilation cooling, and dewatering.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Numerical Simulation Applications in the Design of EGS Collab Experiment 1

The United States Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) is funding a collaborative investigation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) processes at the meso-scale. This study, referred to as the EGS Collab project, is a unique opportunity for scientists and engineers to investigate the creation of fracture networks and circulation of fluids across those networks under in-situ stress conditions. The EGS Collab project is envisioned to comprise three experiments and the site for the first experiment is on the 4850 Level in phyllite of the Precambrian Poorman formation, at the Sanford Underground Research Facility, located at the former Homestake Gold Mine, in Lead, South Dakota. Principal objectives of the project are to develop a number of intermediate-scale field sites and to conduct well-controlled in situ experiments focused on rock fracture behavior and permeability enhancement. Data generated during these experiments will be compared against predictions of a suite of computer codes specifically designed to solve problems involving coupled thermal, hydrological, geomechanical, and geochemical processes. Comparisons between experimental and numerical simulation results will provide code developers with direction for improvements and verification of process models, build confidence in the suite of available numerical tools, and ultimately identify critical future development needs for the geothermal modeling community. Moreover, conducting thorough comparisons of models, modelling approaches, measurement approaches and measured data, via the EGS Collab project, will serve to identify techniques that are most likely to succeed at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE), the GTO’s flagship EGS research effort. As noted, outcomes from the EGS Collab project experiments will serve as benchmarks for computer code verification, but numerical simulation additionally plays an essential role in designing these meso-scale experiments. This paper describes specific numerical simulations supporting the design of Experiment 1, a field test involving hydraulic stimulation of two fractures from notched sections of the injection borehole and fluid circulation between sub-horizontal injection and production boreholes in each fracture individually and collectively, including the circulation of chilled water. Whereas the mine drift allows for accurate and close placement of monitoring instrumentation to the developed fractures, active ventilation in the drift cooled the rock mass within the experimental volume. Numerical simulations were executed to predict seismic events and magnitudes during stimulation, initial fracture orientations for smooth horizontal wellbores, pressure requirements for fracture initiation from notched wellbores, fracture propagation during stimulation between the injection and production boreholes, tracer travel times between the injection and production boreholes, and produced fluid temperatures with chilled water injections, and pressure limits on fluid circulation to avoid fracture growth.

Numerical Simulation, EGS Collab, EGS, Sanford Und↗

The Impact of Frictional Healing on Stick-Slip Recurrence Interval and Stress Drop: Implications for Earthquake Scaling: The impact of healing on stick-slip

We report that interseismic frictional healing is an essential process in the seismic cycle. Observations of both natural and laboratory earthquakes demonstrate that the magnitude of stress drop scales with the logarithm of recurrence time, which is a cornerstone of the rate and state friction (RSF) laws. However, the origin of this log linear behavior and short time “cutoff” for small recurrence intervals remains poorly understood. Here we use RSF laws to demonstrate that the back-projected time of null-healing intrinsically scales with the initial frictional state θ i . We explore this behavior and its implications for (1) the short-term cutoff time of frictional healing and (2) the connection between healing rates derived from stick-slip sliding versus slide-hold-slide tests. We use a novel, continuous solution of RSF for a one-dimensional spring-slider system with inertia. The numerical solution continuously traces frictional state evolution (and healing) and shows that stick-slip cutoff time also scales with frictional state at the conclusion of the dynamic slip process θ i (=D c /V peak ). This numerical investigation on the origins of stick-slip response is verified by comparing laboratory data for a range of peak slip velocities. Slower slip motions yield lesser magnitude of friction drop at a given time due to higher frictional state at the end of each slip event. In conclusion, our results provide insight on the origin of log linear stick-slip evolution and suggest an approach to estimating the critical slip distance on faults that exhibit gradual accelerations, such as for slow earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deposition, Diagenesis, and Sequence Stratigraphy of the Pennsylvanian Morrowan and Atokan Intervals at Farnsworth Unit

Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), a mature oilfield currently undergoing CO2-enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in the northeastern Texas panhandle, is the study area for an extensive project undertaken by the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP). SWP is characterizing the field and monitoring and modeling injection and fluid flow processes with the intent of verifying storage of CO2 in a timeframe of 100–1000 years. Collection of a large set of data including logs, core, and 3D geophysical data has allowed us to build a detailed reservoir model that is well-grounded in observations from the field. This paper presents a geological description of the rocks comprising the reservoir that is a target for both oil production and CO2 storage, as well as the overlying units that make up the primary and secondary seals. Core descriptions and petrographic analyses were used to determine depositional setting, general lithofacies, and a diagenetic sequence for reservoir and caprock at FWU. The reservoir is in the Pennsylvanian-aged Morrow B sandstone, an incised valley fluvial deposit that is encased within marine shales. The Morrow B exhibits several lithofacies with distinct appearance as well as petrophysical characteristics. The lithofacies are typical of incised valley fluvial sequences and vary from a relatively coarse conglomerate base to an upper fine sandstone that grades into the overlying marine-dominated shales and mudstone/limestone cyclical sequences of the Thirteen Finger limestone. Observations ranging from field scale (seismic surveys, well logs) to microscopic (mercury porosimetry, petrographic microscopy, microprobe and isotope data) provide a rich set of data on which we have built our geological and reservoir models.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Improving and Automating Building Model Data Exchange

There are many instances throughout a project’s lifecycle where there arises a need for quick and accurate risk assessment of building designs. For example, an unexpected design change during construction may necessitate structural engineers to perform a seismic risk assessment on analytical models of the updated building design using high fidelity structural analysis software, such as ANSYS or Abaqus. However, the efficiency of such workflows often depends upon the interoperability of architectural design software and structural analysis software. When the quality of this interoperability is lacking or even non-existent, the efficiency of virtual engineering workflows is hampered, which increases project costs. A McGraw Hill industry survey of professional users of Building Information Modeling (BIM) technologies found that there is high demand for BIM interoperability for structural analysis, but that the value/difficulty ratio is currently too low for practical use. There have been efforts by the academic community to facilitate model data exchange between the architectural design and structural analysis domains, but such solutions have not been widely adopted by industry, face technical challenges, and oftentimes are limited in applicability for users of various BIM software. Therefore, INL is developing capabilities to improve, automate, and generalize model data exchange between architectural BIM software (e.g., Revit) and structural analysis software (e.g., SAP2000, ANSYS). The goal is to help expedite and automate as much of the pre-processing step for creating analytical models in finite element analysis software as reasonably as possible. Such a "BIM-to-FEA" conversion tool should provide direct benefit to end-users through accuracy, automation, quick turn-around, and wide applicability. To generalize the application of this BIM-to-FEA conversion tool and increase its useability among the many different commercial BIM software currently used by industry, the program is being developed with the concept of openBIM. OpenBIM is the application of non-proprietary, open data standards that allow for BIM model data exchange in a format that is accessible, retainable, and useable for all users. The most widely used open, non-proprietary data exchange format for BIM is the Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) schema. IFC is developed by buildingSMART international and is ISO certified (ISO 16739-1:2018). The BIM-to-FEA conversion tool is being developed for compatibility with typical commercial building designs of steel framed structures. The tool is currently capable of importing architectural BIM data of framed building structures, recognizing and extracting the aspects of the model that are required for structural analysis, adjusting the connectivity of frame members, and finally exporting to an analytical model stored in the IFC format. The exported IFC analytical model can then be imported into various openBIM compliant software, such as SAP2000. Such capabilities have already been tested on commercial software, as shown above, and continue to be improved. Work is underway to test the conversion on various commercial BIM software, develop a user-friendly interface, incorporate the program into the broader DeepLynx data warehouse project being developed by INL, and to eventually open-source the tool for the benefit of the community. Future development of the tool envisions the ability for efficient iterative risk assessment of generative building designs, all within a workflow utilizing open-source tools. One such open-source tool will be MOOSE, an advanced finite element analysis tool developed at INL. The conversion tool will also branch out from typical commercial building designs and will aim to incorporate nuclear construction. The aim will be to convert both structural and non-structural components of nuclear facilities, such as curved concrete containment structures and piping systems, respectively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Washington Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis Data From Potential Field Studies

A recent study which adapts play fairway analysis (PFA) methodology to assess geothermal potential was conducted at three locations (Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens seismic zone, and Wind River valley) along the Washington Cascade Range (Forson et al. 2017). Potential field (gravity and magnetic) methods which can detect subsurface contrasts in physical properties, provides a means for mapping and modeling subsurface geology and structure. As part of the WA-Cascade PFA project, we performed potential field studies by collecting high-resolution gravity and ground-magnetic data, and rock property measurements to (1) identify and constrain fault geometries (2) constrain subsurface lithologic distribution (3) study fault interactions (4) identify areas favorable to hydrothermal flow, and ultimately (5) guide future geothermal exploration at each location.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Geometric Interpretation of the Cluster Location Problem Part I: Theory

We present a new framing of the seismic location problem using principles drawn from differential geometry. Our interpretation relies upon the common assumption that travel times observed across a network are continuous, differentiable functions of source location. In consequence, travel‐time functions constitute a differentiable map between the source region and a Riemannian manifold. The manifold is said to be the image of the source region embedded in a generally high‐dimension travel‐time vector space. A cluster of events in the source region has an image of discrete points on the manifold, that, except in the simplest cases, cannot be viewed directly. However, it is possible to project the image of a cluster into a tangent space of the manifold for direct visualization. The projection operator can be computed directly from the data without a velocity model, but produces a distorted rendering of the cluster geometry. With a model we can predict the distortions and correct them to estimate cluster geometry. We develop these points with the simplest possible example, one for which direct visualization of the manifold is possible, using the example as an introduction to the relevant concepts from differential geometry in a familiar setting. The tangent space, a local linearization of the manifold, plays a key role. We develop a metric to estimate the limits of linearization, that is, to determine when the curvature of the manifold invalidates the linear assumption. We also examine the interplay of model error, inadequate network geometry, and pick error. We then generalize our results from the simple case to the general case of 3D source regions observed by general networks. Although we do suggest a new “project and correct” method for location, we do not develop it into a practical algorithm. In conclusion, our intention rather is to highlight new analytical methods grounded in differential geometry.

East Pacific Ocean Islands↗

Assessing Uncertainty and Repeatability in Time-Lapse VSP Monitoring of CO2 Injection in a Brine Aquifer, Frio Formation, Texas (A Case Study)

This study was done to assess the repeatability and uncertainty of time-lapse VSP response to CO 2 injection in the Frio formation near Houston Texas. A work flow was built to assess the effect of time-lapse injected CO 2 into two Frio brine reservoir intervals, the ‘C’ sand (Frio1) and the ‘Blue sand’ (Frio2). The time-lapse seismic amplitude variations with sensor depth for both reservoirs Frio1 and Frio2 were computed by subtracting the seismic response of the base survey from each of the two monitor seismic surveys. Source site 1 has been considered as one of the best sites for evaluating the time-lapse response after injection. For site 1, the computed timelapse NRMS levels after processing had been compared to the estimated time-lapse NRMS level before processing for different control reflectors, and for brine aquifers Frio1, and Frio2 to quantify detectability of amplitude difference. As the main interest is to analyze the time-lapse amplitude variations, different scenarios have been considered. Three different survey scenarios were considered: the base survey which was performed before injection, monitor1 performed after the first injection operation, and monitor2 which was after the second injection. The first scenario was base-monitor1, the second was basemonitor2, and the third was monitor1-monitor2. We considered three ‘control’ reflections above the Frio to assist removal of overburden changes, and concluded that third control reflector (CR3) is the most favorable for the first scenario in terms of NRMS response, and first control reflector (CR1) is the most favorable for the second and third scenarios in terms of NRMS response. The NRMS parameter is shown to be a useful measure to assess the effect of processing on time-lapse data. The overall NRMS for the Frio VSP data set was found to be in the range of 30% to 80% following basic processing. This could be considered as an estimated baseline in assessing the utility of VSP for CO 2 monitoring. This study shows that the CO 2 injection in brine reservoir Frio1 (the ‘C’ sand unit) does induce a relative change in amplitude response, and for Frio2 (the ‘Blue’ sand unit) an amplitude change has been also detected, but in both cases the uncertainty, as measured by NRMS indicates the reservoir changes are, at best, only slightly above the noise level, and often below the noise level of the overall data set.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Utah FORGE: Well 58-32 Stimulation Conference Paper and Data

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (U.S. DOE) Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) is a field laboratory that provides a unique opportunity to develop and test new technologies for characterizing, creating and sustaining Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) in a controlled environment. In 2018, the U.S. DOE selected a site in south-central Utah for the FORGE laboratory. Numerous geoscientific studies have been conducted in the region since the 1970s in support of geothermal development at Roosevelt Hot Springs. A vertical scientific well, 58-32, was drilled and tested to a depth of 2290 m (7515 ft) GL in 2017 on the FORGE site to provide additional characterization of the reservoir rocks. The well encountered a conductive thermal regime and a bottom hole temperature of 199degC (390degF). More than 2000 natural fractures were identified, but measured permeabilities are low, less than 30 micro-darcies. Induced fractures indicate that the maximum horizontal stress trends NNE-SSW, consistent with geologic and well observations from the surrounding area. Approximately 45 m (147 ft) at the base of the well was left uncased. A maximum wellhead pressure of 27.6 MPa (4000 psig) at an injection rate of ~1431 L/min (~9 bpm) was measured during stimulation testing in September 2017. Conventional diagnostic evaluations of the data suggest that hydraulic fracturing and shearing occurred. Estimates of the stress gradient for delta_h_min range from of 16.7 to 17.6 kPa/m (0.74 to 0.78 psi/ft). A gradient of 25.6 kPa/m (1.13psi/ft) was calculated for delta_V. In 2019, the 2017 open-hole stimulation in well 58-32 was repeated with injection rates up to 2385 L/min (15 bpm). Two additional stimulations were conducted in the cased portion of the well; one to stimulate critically stressed fractures and the second to test noncritically stressed fractures. Breakdown of the zone spanning critically-stressed fractures occurred at a surface pressure of approximately 29.0 MPa (4200 psig). Although stimulation of the noncritically stressed fractures was interrupted by failure of the bridge plug beneath the perforated interval, micro-seismic data suggests stimulation of the fractures may have been initiated at a surface pressure of 45.5 MPa (6600 psig). These stimulation results support the conclusion the Mineral Mountains granitoid is an appropriate host for EGS development. Micro-seismicity was monitored during the stimulations using surface and downhole instrumentation. Five seismometers and a nodal array of 150 seismic sensors were deployed on the surface. A Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) cable and a string of 12 geophones were deployed in well 78-32, drilled to a depth of 998 m (3274 ft) GL. A broadband sensor and a high-temperature geophone were deployed in well 68-32, drilled to a depth of 303 m (994 ft) GL. More than 420 micro-seismic events were detected by the geophone string. Other instruments detected fewer events.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Multi‐Scale Seismic Imaging of the Ridgecrest, CA, Region With Waveform Inversion of Regional and Dense Array Data

Abstract We develop an inversion procedure for deriving multi‐scale velocity models with waveform inversions of earthquake and ambient noise data at multi‐frequency bands recorded by regional and dense sensor configurations. The method is applied for the area around the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake rupture zones, utilizing data recorded by regional stations and dense 2D and 1D arrays with station spacings of ∼5 km and ∼100 m, respectively. Starting with regional Vp, Vs models and locations of Ridgecrest aftershocks, the velocity models and event locations are improved iteratively by inversions of waveforms recorded by regional stations and the 2D array, using a minimum spectral element size of ∼600 m. Waveforms from local events recorded by dense 1D arrays across the M7.1 rupture zone with frequencies of up to 10 Hz are used to resolve small‐scale features of the rupture zone and shallow crust with a local spectral element size of 80 m. The refined models provide self‐consistent descriptions of the rupture zone and the shallow crust embedded in the regional structures. The results reveal pronounced low Vs and high Vp/Vs in the M6.4 and M7.1 rupture zones coinciding with concentrations of seismicity, and also around the Garlock fault and in several local basins. We also observe clear velocity contrasts across the Garlock fault with polarity reversals along strike and with depth. The obtained multi‐scale velocity models can be used to improve derivations of earthquake source properties, simulations of dynamic ruptures and ground motions, and the understanding of fault and tectonic processes in the region.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Vernacular design based on sustainable disaster’s mitigation communication and education strategy

Indonesia is located between three active tectonic plates, which are prone to natural disasters such as earthquake, volcanic eruption, and also giant tidal wave-tsunami. Adequate infrastructure plays an important role in disaster mitigation, yet without good public awareness, the mitigation process won’t be succeeded. The absence of awareness can lead to infrastructure mistreatment. Several reports on lack of understanding or misinterpretation of disaster mitigation especially from rural and coastal communities need to be solved, especially from communication aspects. This is an interdisciplinary study on disaster mitigation communication design and education strategy from visual communication design studies paradigm. This paper depicts research results which applying vernacular design base to elaborate sustainable mitigation communication and education strategy on various visual media and social campaigns. This paper also describes several design approaches which may becomes way to elaborate sustainable awareness and understanding on disaster mitigation among rural and coastal communities in Indonesia.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Test to Extract Soil Properties Using the Seismic HammerTM Active Seismic Source

Geologic material properties are necessary parameters for ground motion modeling and are difficult and expensive to obtain via traditional methods. Alternative methods to estimate soil properties require a measurement of the ground's response to a force. A possible method of obtaining these measurements is active-source seismic surveys, but measurements of the ground response at the source must also be available. The potential of seismic sources to obtain soil properties is limited, however, by the repeatability of the source. Explosives, and hammer surveys are not repeatable because of variable ground coupling or swing strength. On the other hand, the Seismic Hammer TM (SH) is consistent in the amount of energy it inputs into the ground. In addition, it leaves large physical depressions as a result of ground compaction. The volume of ground compaction varies by location. Here, we hypothesize that physical depressions left in the earth by the SH correlate to energy recorded by nearby geophones, and therefore are a measurement of soil physical properties. Using measurements of the volume of shot holes, we compare the spatial distribution of the volume of ground compacted between the different shot locations. We then examine energy recorded by the nearest 50 geophones and compare the change in amplitude across hits at the same location. Finally, we use the percent difference between the energy recorded by the first and later hits at a location to test for a correlation to the volume of the shot depressions. We find that: * Ground compaction at the shot-depression does cluster geographically, but does not correlate to known surface features. * Energy recorded by nearby geophones reflects ground refusal after several hits. * There is no correlation to shot volume and changes in energy at particular shot locations. Deeper material properties (i.e. below the depth of surface compaction) may be contributing to the changes in energy propagation. * Without further processing of the data, shot-depression volumes are insufficient to understanding ground response to the SH. Without an accurate understanding of the ground response, we cannot extract material properties in conjunction with the SH survey. Additional processing including picking direct arrivals and static corrections may yield positive results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Development on electromagnetic impedance function modeling and its estimation

Today the Electromagnetic methods such as magnetotellurics (MT) and controlled sources audio MT (CSAMT) is used in a broad variety of applications. Its usefulness in poor seismic areas and its negligible environmental impact are integral parts of effective exploration at minimum cost. As exploration was forced into more difficult areas, the importance of MT and CSAMT, in conjunction with other techniques, has tended to grow continuously. However, there are obviously important and difficult problems remaining to be solved concerning our ability to collect process and interpret MT as well as CSAMT in complex 3D structural environments. This talk aim at reviewing and discussing the recent development on MT as well as CSAMT impedance functions modeling, and also some improvements on estimation procedures for the corresponding impedance functions. In MT impedance modeling, research efforts focus on developing numerical method for computing the impedance functions of three dimensionally (3-D) earth resistivity models. On that reason, 3-D finite elements numerical modeling for the impedances is developed based on edge element method. Whereas, in the CSAMT case, the efforts were focused to accomplish the non-plane wave problem in the corresponding impedance functions. Concerning estimation of MT and CSAMT impedance functions, researches were focused on improving quality of the estimates. On that objective, non-linear regression approach based on the robust M-estimators and the Hilbert transform operating on the causal transfer functions, were used to dealing with outliers (abnormal data) which are frequently superimposed on a normal ambient MT as well as CSAMT noise fields. As validated, the proposed MT impedance modeling method gives acceptable results for standard three dimensional resistivity models. Whilst, the full solution based modeling that accommodate the non-plane wave effect for CSAMT impedances is applied for all measurement zones, including near-, transition-as well as the far-field zones, and consequently the plane wave correction is no longer needed for the impedances. In the resulting robust impedance estimates, outlier contamination is removed and the self consistency between the real and imaginary parts of the impedance estimates is guaranteed. Using synthetic and real MT data, it is shown that the proposed robust estimation methods always yield impedance estimates which are better than the conventional least square (LS) estimation, even under condition of severe noise contamination. A recent development on the constrained robust CSAMT impedance estimation is also discussed. By using synthetic CSAMT data it is demonstrated that the proposed methods can produce usable CSAMT transfer functions for all measurement zones.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗