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At least 559 records · Page 31

Exploring the Capabilities of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Detect Space Weather-Significant Emerging Active Regions

Active regions are a source of various phenomena responsible for Space Weather disturbances; therefore, developing a technology for early warning about upcoming magnetic activity is crucial to mitigate its impact. However, observational limitations and the high nonlinearity of processes associated with the accumulation of magnetic flux and its interaction with the surrounding plasma during the emergence through the convection zone make early activity detection a challenging problem. To address these challenges, we developed a physics-driven machine learning model that allows us to detect active regions (ARs) before they become visible on the solar surface by analyzing the power spectra of acoustic oscillations observed by the SDO/HMI instrument. This study is based on a time series of Doppler shift maps of 31x31-degree areas tracked with the Carrington rotation rate for four days before and after the emergence. The Doppler shift time series are processed into the oscillation power maps for four frequency ranges and accompanied by line-of-sight magnetograms and the continuum intensity maps from SDO/HMI. The resulting data are converted into a 1D time series representing the mean temporal variations of these quantities. The redacted time series are used as input to predict AR emergence using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) method. The training of the LSTM model is based on 40 ARs, which includes an independent analysis for each sub region that exhibits AR emergence or remains quiet. The emergence of magnetic flux (defined as a decrease of the continuum intensity) was detected with the developed LSTM algorithm from 5 to 48 hours before the reported time by NOAA. The developed model is capable of pointing to the time and location of active region formation. In this presentation, we discuss reasons that impact how early in advance the model can identify the upcoming activity and the possibility of improving the current predictive skills and steps to transition to the operational forecast.

Heliophysics↗

Critical Velocities in Open Capillary Flow

This paper describes the proposed research program on open capillary flow and the preliminary work performed theoretically and in drop tower experiments. The work focuses on the fundamental physical understanding of the flow through capillary bound geometries, where the circumference of the cross section of the flow path contains free surfaces. Examples for such a flow configuration are capillary vanes in surface tension tanks, flow along edges and corners and flow through liquid bridges. The geometries may be classified by their cross section areas, wetted circumferences and the radii of curvature of the free surfaces. In the streaming float zone the flow path is bound by a free surface only. The ribbon vane is a model for vane types used in surface tension tanks, where a structure in proximity to the tank wall forms a capillary gap. A groove is used in heat pipes for the transportation of the condensed working fluid to the heat source and a wedge may occur in a spaceborne experiment where fluid has to be transported by the means of surface tension. The research objectives are the determination of the maximum volume flux, the observation of the free surfaces and the liquid flow inside the flow path as well as the evaluation of the limiting capillary wave speed. The restriction of the maximum volume flux is due to convective forces (flow velocity exceeding the capillary wave speed) and/or viscous forces, i.e. the viscous head loss along the flow path must be compensated by the capillary pressure due to the curved free surface. Exceeding the maximum volume flux leads to the choking of the flow path, thus the free surface collapses and.gas ingestion occurs at the outlet. The means are ground-based experimental work with plateau tanks and in a drop tower, a sounding rocket flight, and theoretical analysis with integral balances as well as full three dimensional CFD solutions for flow with free surfaces.

Dreyer, Michael↗

Structure and Rotation of the Solar Interior: Initial Results from the MDI Medium-L Program

The medium-l program of the Michelson Doppler Imager instrument on board SOHO provides continuous observations of oscillation modes of angular degree, l, from 0 to approximately 300. The data for the program are partly processed on board because only about 3% of MDI observations can be transmitted continuously to the ground. The on-board data processing, the main component of which is Gaussian-weighted binning, has been optimized to reduce the negative influence of spatial aliasing of the high-degree oscillation modes. The data processing is completed in a data analysis pipeline at the SOI Stanford Support Center to determine the mean multiplet frequencies and splitting coefficients. The initial results show that the noise in the medium-l oscillation power spectrum is substantially lower than in ground-based measurements. This enables us to detect lower amplitude modes and, thus, to extend the range of measured mode frequencies. This is important for inferring the Sun's internal structure and rotation. The MDI observations also reveal the asymmetry of oscillation spectral lines. The line asymmetries agree with the theory of mode excitation by acoustic sources localized in the upper convective boundary layer. The sound-speed profile inferred from the mean frequencies gives evidence for a sharp variation at the edge of the energy-generating core. The results also confirm the previous finding by the GONG (Gough et al., 1996) that, in a thin layer just beneath the convection zone, helium appears to be less abundant than predicted by theory. Inverting the multiplet frequency splittings from MDI, we detect significant rotational shear in this thin layer. This layer is likely to be the place where the solar dynamo operates. In order to understand how the Sun works, it is extremely important to observe the evolution of this transition layer throughout the 11-year activity cycle.

Kosovichev, A. G.↗

Microstructure of the combustion zone: Thin-binder AP-polymer sandwiches

Experimental results are summarized for systematic quench-burning tests on ammonium perchlorate-HC binder sandwiches with binder thicknesses in the range 10 - 150 microns. Tests included three binders (polysulfide, polybutadiene-acrylonitrile, and hydroxy terminated polybutadiene), and pressures from 1.4 to 14 MPa. In addition, deflagration limits were determined in terms of binder thickness and pressure. Results are discussed in terms of a qualitative theory of sandwich burning consolidated from various sources. Some aspects of the observed results are explained only speculatively.

Price, E. W.↗

Near- and mid-infrared imaging of the planetary nebulae BD +30 deg 3639 and IC 418

We present near- and mid-IR images of the planetary nebulae BD +30 deg 3639 and IC 418, with a unique combination of high spatial and spectral resolution. The mid-IR images were obtained with MIRAC, a new IR array camera. For BD +30 deg 3639, the mid-IR images at 10.0, 11.2, 12.4, 12.8, and 13.2 microns have allowed us to separate the various spectral emission components such as the broad UIR features, the 12.8-micron forbidden Ne II emission feature, and continuum emission, to determine the distribution of these components in the nebula. For IC 418, we have obtained high-resolution images in both the near- and mid-IR. The images in the near-IR at J, H, and K are important for determining the source of the IR excess; one component of the excess is located near the central star. We have also imaged the halo emission at H and K, which has been detected in earlier studies, and have determined its spatial extent. The mid-IR images at 9.8 and 11.7 microns show continuum emission coincident with the ionized zone and suggest that SiC emission originates from the region near the central star.

Hora, Joseph L.↗

Kinetic Modeling of Plasmaspheric Refilling

We have a new model of ion transport that we have applied to the problem of plasmaspheric flux tube refilling after a geomagnetic disturbance. Effects included are a time-varying ionospheric source, self-consistent Coulomb collisions, field-aligned electric field, and ion cyclotron wave heating. We see refilling rates similar to those of earlier observations and models, except when the electric field is included. In this case, the refilling rates are larger than previously predicted, yet still within the experimental limits. Wave interactions increase the trapped zone population and thus the density, especially during the few few hours of the refilling process. Results are compared with observations from DE/RIMS and Polar/TIDE, as well as hydrodynamic and kinetic particle model simulations.

Liemohn, M. W.↗

An Einstein Observatory X-ray survey of main-sequence stars with shallow convection zones

The results of an X-ray survey of bright late A and early F stars on the main B-V sequence between 0.1 and 0.5 are presented. All the stars were observed with the Einstein Observatory for a period of at least 500 seconds. The survey results show significantly larger X-ray luminosities for the sample binaries than for the single stars. It is suggested that the difference is due to the presence of multiple X-ray sources in binaries. It is shown that the X-ray luminosities for single stars increase rapidly with increasing color, and that the relation Lx/Lbol is equal to about 10 to the -7th does not hold for A stars. No correlation was found between X-ray luminosity and projected equatorial rotation velocity. It is argued on the basis of the observations that X-ray emission in the sample stars originated from coronae. The available observational evidence supporting this view is discussed.

Schmitt, J. H. M. M.↗

Parametric Study of Three-Stringer-Panel Compression-After-Impact Strength

Damage tolerance requirements for integrally-stiffened composite wing skins are typically met using design allowables generated by testing impact-damaged subcomponents, such as three-stringer stiffened panels. To improve these structures, it is necessary to evaluate the critical design parameters associated with three-stringer stiffened-panel compressive behavior. During recent research and development programs, four structural parameters were identified as sources for strength variation: (a) material system, (b) stringer configuration, (c) skin layup, and (d) form of axial reinforcement (tape versus pultruded carbon rods). Relative effects of these parameters on damage resistance and damage tolerance were evaluated numerically and experimentally. Material system and geometric configuration had the largest influence on damage resistance; location and extent of the damage zone influenced the sublaminate buckling behavior, failure initiation site, and compressive ultimate strength. A practical global-local modeling technique captured observed experimental behavior and has the potential to identify critical damage sites and estimate failure loads prior to testing. More careful consideration should be given to accurate simulation of boundary conditions in numerical and experimental studies.

Rousseau, Carl Q.↗

Quantifying the Importance of Selected Drought Indicators for the United States Drought Monitor

Using information theory, our study quantifies the importance of selected indicators for the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) maps. We use the technique of mutual information (MI) to measure the importance of any indicator to the USDM, and because MI is derived solely from the data, our findings are independent of any model structure (conceptual, physically-based, or empirical). We also compare these MIs against the drought representation effectiveness ratings in the North America Drought Indices and Indicators Assessment (NADIIA) survey for Koeppen climate zones. This reveals: [1] agreement between some ratings and our MI values (high for example indicators like Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index or SPEI); [2] some divergences (for example, soil moisture has high ratings but near-zero MIs for ESA-CCI soil moisture in the Western U.S., indicating the need of another remotely sensed soil moisture source); and [3] new insights into the importance of variables such as Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) that are not included in sources like NADIIA. Further analysis of the MI results yields findings related to: [1] hydrological mechanisms (summertime SWE domination during individual drought events through snowmelt into the water-scarce soil); [2] hydroclimatic types (the top pair of inputs in the Western and non-Western regions are SPEIs and soil moistures respectively); and [3] predictability (high for the California 2012-2017 event, with longer-timescale indicators dominating). Finally, the high MIs between multiple indicators jointly and the USDM indicate potentially high drought forecasting accuracies achievable using only model-based inputs, and the potential for global drought monitoring using only remotely sensed inputs, especially for locations having insufficient in situ observations.

Drought↗

JAPE 91: Influence of terrain masking of the acoustic propagation of helicopter noise

The acoustic propagation in the case of a noise source masked by a small element of terrain has been investigated experimentally. These data have been measured during the 'terrain masking' experiment of the NATO JAPE 91 experimental campaign. The main objective of that experiment was to study the acoustic detection of a helicopter masked by a small hill. Microphones have been placed at different locations on the shadow zone of the hill to study the effect of the terrain obstruction on sound propagation. The results presented come from data measured by Atlas Elektronik and by ISL, and have been processed together. The terrain obstruction causes an excess attenuation of the SPL (Sound Pressure Level) for all the frequencies, but this attenuation is more effective for the high frequencies than for the low frequencies. Results typical of diffraction phenomena have been observed; the SPL is minimal at the foot of the hill and is relatively constant beyond it.

Naz, P.↗

Resolution experiments for NW Pacific subduction zone tomography

Results are reported from an investigation of the resolving power of ISC/NEIC P travel-time data in tomographic inversions for the geometry of the subduction zones in the NW Pacific. From thermal models for the Kurile, Janan, Izu-Bonin, Mariana, and Ryukyu slabs, three-dimensional synthetic velocity anomalies for subducting slabs are generated and projected onto a cell model for the uppermost 1400 km of the mantle. These synthetic models are used to compute synthetic delay times for ray paths corresponding to the source and receiver locations used for the actual data, add Gaussian noise, invert the synthetic data, and compare the resulting velocity structure to the initial synthetic models. This comparison is illustrated for sections through the Kuriles and the Mariana arcs. A variety of resolution artifacts are observed, which in many cases resemble features visible in the tomographic results obtained from inverting the actual ISC/NEIC data.

Spakman, Wim↗

Self-lubricated mantle convection: Two-dimensional models

We present results from convection models allowing for self-lubrication of downflows. Models impose a line source of chemically light, low viscosity material at the top of a convecting layer of temperature-dependent viscosity material. Low viscosity surface material serves as an analog to hydrated sediment/crust and the high viscosity upper portion of the convecting layer as an analog to mantle lithosphere. Slow near surface motion in the convecting layer entrains low viscosity material into zones of downflow, which has a lubricating effect. Once entrained lubricant is deeper than the cold high viscosity portion of the convecting layer, rapid upper boundary layer overturn occurs and system properties change (e.g., heat flux doubles). This marks transition to a lubricated state. Before and after transition, transport properties are dominantly determined by, respectively, the viscosity of mantle lithosphere and that of interior mantle. Lubricated and nonlubricated states appear as distinct regions in system output space suggesting that exchange between them is akin to a phase transition. That such exchange depends on a near surface lubricant implies that the geodynamics of planets lacking such lubricants may fundamentally differ from that of planets possessing them.

Lenardic, A.↗

Model for the Vaporization of Mixed Organometallic Compounds in the Metalorganic Chemical Vapor Deposition of High Temperature Superconducting Films

A model of the vaporization and mass transport of mixed organometallics from a single source for thin film metalorganic chemical vapor deposition is presented. A stoichiometric gas phase can be obtained from a mixture of the organometallics in the desired mole ratios, in spite of differences in the volatilities of the individual compounds. Proper film composition and growth rates are obtained by controlling the velocity of a carriage containing the organometallics through the heating zone of a vaporizer.

Meng, Guangyao↗

Availability of Subsurface Water-Ice Resources in the Northern Mid-Latitudes of Mars

Multiple nations and private entities are pushing to make landing humans on Mars a reality. The majority of proposed mission architectures envision “living off the land” by leveraging Martian water-ice deposits for fuel production and other purposes. Fortunately for mission designers, water ice exists on Mars in plentiful volumes. The challenge is isolating accessible ice deposits within regions that optimize other preferred landing-site conditions. Here, we present the first results of the Mars Subsurface Water Ice Mapping (SWIM) project, which has the aim of searching for buried ice resources across the mid-latitudes. Through the integration of orbital datasets in concert with new data-processing techniques, the SWIM project assesses the likelihood of ice by quantifying the consistency of multiple, independent data sources with the presence of ice. Concentrating our efforts across a significant portion of the northern Hemisphere, our composite ice consistency maps indicate that the broad plains of Arcadia and the extensive glacial networks across Deuteronilus Mensae match the greatest number of remote sensing criteria for accessible ice-rich, subsurface material situated equatorward of the contemporary ice-stability zone.

G A Morgan↗

Elevation change (2000-2004) on the Malaspina Glacier, Alaska

The glaciers of the southeastern Alaska coastal region are the largest temperate glacier meltwater source on Earth and may contribute one third of the total glacier meltwater entering the global ocean. Since melt onset and refreeeze timing in this region show a tendency toward earlier onset and longer ablation seasons, accelerated glacier wastage may be occurring. In this study we focus on one of the largest temperate glacier systems on Earth, the Malaspina Glacier. This glacier, with a length of approximately 110 km and an area of approximately square 5,000 km, has the largest piedmont lobe of any temperate glacier. The entire lobe, which lies at elevations below 600 m, is within the ablation zone. We report and interpret ice elevation change between a digital elevation model (DEM) derived from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM C band) observations in Feb. 2000 and ICESat Laser 1-3 observations between Feb. 2003 and Nov. 2004. We use these elevation change results, along with earlier studies, to address the spatial and temporal variability in wastage of the piedmont lobe. Between 2000 and 2004 ice elevation changes of 10-30 meters occurred across the central Malaspina piedmont lobe. From 1972/73 (USGS DEM) to 1999 (SRTM corrected for estimated winter snow accumulation) Malaspina's (Agassiz, Seward Lobe, and Marvine) mean ice thinning was estimated at -47 m with maximum thinning on parts of the lobes to -160 m. The Malaspina's accumulation area is only slightly larger than its ablation area (2,575 km2 vs. 2,433 km2); unfortunately few glaciological observations are available from this source region. Snow accumulation rates have been largely inferred from low-altitude precipitation and temperature data. Comparing sequential ICESat observations in the Malaspina source region, we estimated short-term elevation increases of up to 5 meters during the winter of 2003/04.

Sauber, J.↗

Iron absorption band analysis for the discrimination of iron rich zones

The author has identified the following significant results. A lineament study of the Nevada test site is near completion. Two base maps (1:500,000) have been prepared, one of band 7 lineaments and the other of band 5 lineaments. In general, more lineaments and more faults are seen on band 5. About 45% of the lineaments appear to be faults and contacts, the others being predominantly streams, roads, railway tracks, and mountain crests. About 25% of the lineaments are unidentified so far. Special attention is being given to unmapped extensions of faults, groups of unmapped lineaments, and known mineralized areas and alteration zones. Earthquake epicenters recorded from 1869 to 1963 have been plotted on the two base maps. Preliminary examination as yet indicates no basic correlation with the lineaments. Attempts are being made to subtract bands optically, using an I2S viewer, an enlarger, and a data color viewer. Success has been limited so far due to technical difficulties, mainly vignetting and poor light sources, within the machines. Some vegetation and rock type differences, however, have been discerned.

Rowan, L. C.↗

Mass spectrometric measurement of thermospheric wind

The open source neutral mass spectrometer (OSS) on the Atmosphere Explorer C satellite was periodically operated in an experimental 'fly-through' mode. When the satellite is spinning, the signal from this mode displays a sharp maximum that occurs when the instrument source faces directly into the oncoming gas. Thus the location of this maximum is sensitive to neutral wind components in the spin plane. Twenty-two spinning fly-through orbits were analyzed to determine vertical wind magnitudes in the altitude range 160-250 km. Large (up to 65 m/s) magnitudes were detected in the early morning sector of the auroral zone.

Knutson, J. R.↗

Evaluation of Perspective and Coplanar Cockpit Displays of Traffic Information to Support Hazard Awareness in Free Flight

We examined the cockpit display representation of traffic, to support the pilot in tactical planning and conflict avoidance. Such displays may support the "free flight" concept, but can also support greater situation awareness in a non-free flight environment. Two perspective views and a coplanar display were contrasted in scenarios in which pilots needed to navigate around conflicting traffic, either in the absence (low workload) or presence (high workload) of a second intruder aircraft. All three formats were configured with predictive aiding vectors that explicitly represented the predicted point of closest pass, and predicted penetration of an alert zone around ownship. Ten pilots were assigned to each of the display conditions, and each flew a series of 60 conflict maneuvers that varied in their workload and the complexity of the conflict geometry. Results indicated a tendency to choose vertical over lateral maneuvers, a tendency which was amplified with the coplanar display. Vertical maneuvers by the intruder produced an added source of workload. Importantly, the coplanar display supported performance in all measures that was equal to or greater than either of the perspective displays (i.e., fewer predicted and actual conflicts, less extreme maneuvers). Previous studies that have indicated perspective superiority have only contrasted these with UNIplanar displays rather than the coplanar display used here.

Merwin, David H.↗