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At least 559 records · Page 31

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NASA NTRS2020

Bayesian Framework For Bioburden Density Calculations To Perform Planetary Protection Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The planetary protection discipline aims to minimize the microbial contamination on spacecraft to prevent the inadvertent contamination of other planetary bodies, known as forward planetary protection (PP). Planetary protection probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) relies on two core methodologies-the contamination probability event tree analysis and statistical parameter estimation. Planetary protection engineers combine several techniques to estimate the bioburden present on spacecraft components. A direct assay to enumerate CFU (colony forming units) is the preferred methodology, but given a similar processing environment the bioburden present on certain components is inferred using: (1) a NASA defined bioburden estimate based upon the biological cleanliness of the manufacturing/assembly environment or (2) sampled data from a similar spacecraft component. The paper presents an empirical Bayesian framework to systematically treat bioburden estimation and its uncertainties on different levels starting with measurement procedures to combining different components to subsystems and whole spacecraft. It is shown that the Bayesian approach can effectively handle estimations and their uncertainties at different levels and produce a reliable estimate for bioburden to be used to evaluate the probability of contamination.

Seuylemezian, Arman↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nonequilibrium information entropy approach to ternary fission of actinides

Ternary fission of actinides probes the state of the nucleus at scission. Light clusters are produced in space and time very close to the scission point. Within the nonequilibrium statistical operator method, a generalized Gibbs distribution is constructed from the information given by the observed yields of isotopes. Using this relevant statistical operator, yields are calculated taking excited states and continuum correlations into account, in accordance with the virial expansion of the equation of state. Furthermore, clusters with mass number A≤10 are well described using the nonequilibrium generalizations of temperature and chemical potentials. Improving the virial expansion, in-medium effects may become of importance in determining the contribution of weakly bound states and continuum correlations to the intrinsic partition function. Yields of larger clusters, which fail to reach this quasiequilibrium form of the relevant distribution, are described by nucleation kinetics, and a saddle-to-scission relaxation time of about 7000 fm/c is inferred. Light-charged particle emission, described by reaction kinetics and virial expansions, may therefore be regarded as a very important tool to probe the nonequilibrium time evolution of actinide nuclei during fission.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reconstruction of effective potential from statistical analysis of dynamic trajectories

The broad incorporation of microscopic methods is yielding a wealth of information on the atomic and mesoscale dynamics of individual atoms, molecules, and particles on surfaces and in open volumes. Analysis of such data necessitates statistical frameworks to convert observed dynamic behaviors to effective properties of materials. Here, we develop a method for the stochastic reconstruction of effective local potentials solely from observed structural data collected from molecular dynamics simulations (i.e., data analogous to those obtained via atomically resolved microscopies). Using the silicon vacancy defect in graphene as a model, we apply the statistical framework presented herein to reconstruct the free energy landscape from the calculated atomic displacements. Evidence of consistency between the reconstructed local potential and the trajectory data from which it was produced is presented, along with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in the inferred parameters.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1986

Variations in brightness temperature over cold first-year sea ice near Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories

Microwave radiometric temperature T(B) profiles of first-year sea ice were obtained along 70- to 100-m traverses, with sled-mounted radiometers at 10, 18.7, 33.6, and 37 GHz and an effective spot size of 30 cm. Measurements of T(B) as a function of nadir angle were obtained at selected sites along the traverses. Snow and ice properties were recorded and correlated with the T(B) measurements to infer the effect of snow cover and ice conditions on the radiometric temperature. T(B) correlated positively with the brine volume profile in the ice at several sites, suggesting that brine volume has a strong effect on T(B) under these conditions. An overall statistical comparison of snow thickness with T(B), when compared with previously published models, suggests that the effect of snow cover on the microwave transmission coefficient of the snow/ice interface may be an important contribution to the radiometric temperature at these frequencies. A model is proposed to explain the data.

Lohanick, A. W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Estimating the instabilities of N clocks by means of comparison measurements

The estimation of individual instabilities of N clocks, compared by measuring the differences of their readings, is considered without assuming a priori any hypotheses on their uncorrelation. Instabilities of the N clocks are described by a complete (non-diagonal) N x N covariance matrix R. Only differences of clock readings are available in order to estimate R. Statistical processing of these data allows one to calculate the (N-1)x(N-l) covariance matrix S of the differences relative to the N-th(reference) clock. By analyzing the relationships tying R and S, several pieces of information can be inferred and, in particular, the conditions for the validity of the uncorrelation hypothesis are established. The estimation of R from S is not unique: in any case R must be positive definite. A theorem states that R is positive definite if and only if its determinant is positive. Nevertheless infinitely many acceptable choices of R still fulfill the condition of positive definiteness. This paper shows that, by increasing the number N of compared clocks, the amount of arbitrariness in estimating R is reduced. The analysis of some experimental data illustrates the capability of the method.

Premoli, Amedeo↗

DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting stellar properties of star-forming galaxies with stellar and nebular spectral modelling

Spectral synthesis is a powerful tool for interpreting the physical properties of galaxies by decomposing their spectral energy distributions (SEDs) into the main luminosity contributors (e.g. stellar populations of distinct age and metallicity or ionised gas). However, the impact nebular emission has on the inferred properties of star-forming (SF) galaxies has been largely overlooked over the years, with unknown ramifications to the current understanding of galaxy evolution. The objective of this work is to estimate the relations between stellar properties (e.g. total mass, mean age, and mean metallicity) of SF galaxies by simultaneously fitting the stellar and nebular continua and comparing them to the results derived through the more common purely stellar spectral synthesis approach. The main galaxy sample from SDSS DR7 was analysed with two distinct population synthesis codes: FADO, which estimates self-consistently both the stellar and nebular contributions to the SED, and the original version of STARLIGHT, as representative of purely stellar population synthesis codes. Differences between codes regarding average mass, mean age and mean metallicity values can go as high as ~0.06 dex for the overall population of galaxies and ~0.12 dex for SF galaxies (galaxies with EW(Hα) > 3 Å), with the most prominent difference between both codes in the two populations being in the light-weighted mean stellar age. FADO presents a broader range of mean stellar ages and metallicities for SF galaxies than STARLIGHT, with the latter code preferring metallicity solutions around the solar value (Z ⊙ = 0.02). A closer look into the average light- and mass-weighted star formation histories of intensively SF galaxies (EW(Hα) > 75 Å) reveals that the light contributions of simple stellar populations (SSPs) younger than ≤10 7 (10 9 ) years in STARLIGHT are higher by ~5.41% (9.11%) compared to FADO. Moreover, FADO presents higher light contributions from SSPs with metallicity ≤ Z ⊙ /200 (Z ⊙ /50) of around 8.05% (13.51%) when compared with STARLIGHT. This suggests that STARLIGHT is underestimating the average light-weighted age of intensively SF galaxies by up to ~0.17 dex and overestimating the light-weighted metallicity by up to ~0.13 dex compared to FADO (or vice versa). The comparison between the average stellar properties of passive, SF and intensively SF galaxy samples also reveals that differences between codes increase with increasing EW(Hα) and decreasing total stellar mass. Moreover, comparing SF results from FADO in a purely stellar mode with the previous results qualitatively suggests that differences between codes are primarily due to mathematical and statistical differences and secondarily due to the impact of the nebular continuum modelling approach (or lack thereof). However, it is challenging to adequately quantify the relative role of each factor since they are likely interconnected. This work finds indirect evidence that a purely stellar population synthesis approach negatively impacts the inferred stellar properties (e.g. mean age and mean metallicity) of galaxies with relatively high star formation rates (e.g. dwarf spirals, ‘green peas’, and starburst galaxies). In turn, this can bias interpretations of fundamental relations such as the mass-age or mass-metallicity, which are factors worth bearing in mind in light of future high-resolution spectroscopic surveys at higher redshifts (e.g. MOONS and 4MOST-4HS).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1989

X ray emission from relativistic jets in AGNs and statistical implications

Calculations of the Compton scattering interaction between an ultrarelativistic jet and a thermal radiation field, in an Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), are presented. This process can be effective in decelerating ultrarelativistic jets that are accelerated by electromagnetic or hydromagnetic forces closer in to the central black hole. A narrow distribution of terminal Lorentz factors gamma sub infinity, consistent with the values inferred in superluminal radio sources, arises naturally in this model. The hard X-ray component detected in the spectra of 3C273 and several BL Lac objects may be due to the inverse Compton radiation produced in the course of the initial deceleration of their relativistic jets. The requirement that the luminosity of the hard X-ray component must exceed the total power in the associated jet is considered.

Melia, Fulvio↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Architectures of Exoplanetary Systems: Towards a Multi-planet Model for Reproducing the Planet Radius Valley and Intra-system Size Similarity

Multi-planet systems provide crucial insights into the architectures and correlations within planetary systems, which in turn offer clues into their formation and evolution histories. Through the thousands of exoplanet candidates that it discovered, NASA's Kepler mission revealed that systems with multiple transiting planets are common. We describe a new model for inferring the exoplanet population observed by Kepler, which combines a semi-parametric description of planetary systems with a prescription for envelope mass-loss due to photoevaporation. This new model is a"hybrid" of the maximum AMD (angular momentum deficit) model in which the orbital excitations of the planets are drawn by distributing the system's critical AMD (He et al. 2020), and a photoevaporation model for sculpting the observed radius valley (Neil & Rogers 2020). This is an update to the SysSim suite of exoplanet population models derived from forward modeling the Kepler detection pipeline. The hybrid model is constrained by the observed statistics of multi-transiting systems, including additional constraints from the distribution of planet radii and their intra-system size patterns. This model is capable of producing a planet radius valley as well as a preference for planet size similarity. However, we find that the Kepler catalog exhibits features that are even more significant (i.e., it has a deeper observed radius valley and stronger size similarity) than the best-fit model. We use this model to infer the intrinsic planet radius valley as well as the distribution of primordial planet masses and core masses.

kepler↗

DOE OSTI2020

The internal structure and geodynamics of Mars inferred from a 4.2-Gyr zircon record

Combining U–Pb ages with Lu–Hf data in zircon provides insights into the magmatic history of rocky planets. The Northwest Africa (NWA) 7034/7533 meteorites are samples of the southern highlands of Mars containing zircon with ages as old as 4476.3 ± 0.9 Ma, interpreted to reflect reworking of the primordial Martian crust by impacts. We extracted a statistically significant zircon population (n= 57) from NWA 7533 that defines a temporal record spanning 4.2 Gyr. Ancient zircons record ages from 4485.5 ± 2.2 Ma to 4331.0 ± 1.4 Ma, defining a bimodal distribution with groupings at 4474 ± 10 Ma and 4442 ± 17 Ma. We interpret these to represent intense bombardment episodes at the planet’s surface, possibly triggered by the early migration of gas giant planets. The unradiogenic initial Hf-isotope composition of these zircons establishes that Mars’s igneous activity prior to ~4.3 Ga was limited to impact-related reworking of a chemically enriched, primordial crust. A group of younger detrital zircons record ages from 1548.0 ± 8.8 Ma to 299.5 ± 0.6 Ma. The only plausible sources for these grains are the temporally associated Elysium and Tharsis volcanic provinces that are the expressions of deep-seated mantle plumes. The chondritic-like Hf-isotope compositions of these zircons require the existence of a primitive and convecting mantle reservoir, indicating that Mars has been in a stagnant-lid tectonic regime for most of its history. Our results imply that zircon is ubiquitous on the Martian surface, providing a faithful record of the planet’s magmatic history.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A numerical study of the meso-structure variability in the compaction process of prepreg platelet molded composites

Compaction deformations in a thermoplastic composite system molded from chopped prepreg platelets were analyzed to obtain statistical distributions of local distortions that define the final consolidated meso-structure. This study provides an insight into and allows quantification of the intrinsic geometric variability of the composite meso-structure that controls the variability of the effective composite mechanical properties. A two-phase viscoelastic finite element model was utilized to treat the behavior of molten prepreg platelets, which were assumed to be incompressible and inextensible in the fiber direction during processing. A two-step simulation procedure with discretely modeled platelets and platelet-to-platelet contacts is proposed. The analysis begins with a drop simulation of the uncontrolled material deposition followed by a 3D finite element analysis of the preform compaction and bulk material flow. The proposed model provides a method for generating a composite meso-structure ab initio starting from a statistical sampling of the initial conditions for platelet deposition. The predicted platelet thickness distribution, intra-platelet fiber waviness and out-of-plane platelet undulations were found to be in good agreement with experimental measurements. An estimate of the volume of resin pockets was inferred from the compaction simulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cosmological shocks around galaxy clusters: A coherent investigation with DES, SPT & ACT

We search for signatures of cosmological shocks in gas pressure profiles of galaxy clusters using the cluster catalogs from three surveys: the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3, the South Pole Telescope (SPT) SZ survey, and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) data releases 4, 5, and 6, and using thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) maps from SPT and ACT. The combined cluster sample contains around $10^5$ clusters with mass and redshift ranges $10^{13.7} < M_{\rm 200m}/M_\odot < 10^{15.5}$ and $0.1 < z < 2$, and the total sky coverage of the maps is $\approx 15,000 \,\,{\rm deg}^2$. We find a clear pressure deficit at $R/R_{\rm 200m}\approx 1.1$ in SZ profiles around both ACT and SPT clusters, estimated at $6\sigma$ significance, which is qualitatively consistent with a shock-induced thermal non-equilibrium between electrons and ions. The feature is not as clearly determined in profiles around DES clusters. We verify that measurements using SPT or ACT maps are consistent across all scales, including in the deficit feature. The SZ profiles of optically selected and SZ-selected clusters are also consistent for higher mass clusters. Those of less massive, optically selected clusters are suppressed on small scales by factors of 2-5 compared to predictions, and we discuss possible interpretations of this behavior. An oriented stacking of clusters -- where the orientation is inferred from the SZ image, the brightest cluster galaxy, or the surrounding large-scale structure measured using galaxy catalogs -- shows the normalization of the one-halo and two-halo terms vary with orientation. Finally, the location of the pressure deficit feature is statistically consistent with existing estimates of the splashback radius.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Blinded challenge for precision cosmology with large-scale structure: Results from effective field theory for the redshift-space galaxy power spectrum

An accurate theoretical template for the galaxy power spectrum is key for the success of ongoing and future spectroscopic surveys. We examine to what extent the effective field theory (EFT) of large-scale structure is able to provide such a template and correctly estimate cosmological parameters. To that end, we initiate a blinded challenge to infer cosmological parameters from the redshift-space power spectrum of high-resolution mock catalogs mimicking the BOSS galaxy sample but covering a 100 times larger cumulative volume. This gigantic simulation volume allows us to separate systematic bias due to theoretical modeling from the statistical error due to sample variance. The challenge is to measure three unknown input parameters used in the simulation: the Hubble constant, the matter density fraction, and the clustering amplitude. We present analyses done by two independent teams, who have fitted the mock simulation data generated by yet another independent group. This allows us to avoid any confirmation bias by analyzers and to pin down possible tuning of the specific EFT implementations. Both independent teams have recovered the true values of the input parameters within subpercent statistical errors corresponding to the total simulation volume.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ordovician-Cambrian Units: Hierarchical Evaluation of Geologic Carbon Storage Resource Estimates

The Indiana Geological and Water Survey (IGWS) led subtask 1.1 to assess the regional distribution and estimate the storage capacity of Ordovician-Cambrian stratigraphic units located within the partnership region. A comprehensive data set of wireline logs and petrophysical information was used to generate these interpretations. These data include core analysis for porosity and permeability, mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP), and existing well data including location and stratigraphic information. This report includes storage resource estimates (SREs) for three potential storage reservoirs(limestone and dolostone from the Upper Ordovician Trenton Limestone/Black River Group and equivalent units, the Middle Ordovician St. Peter Sandstone, and primary target reservoir rocks of the Lower Ordovician and Upper Cambrian Knox Supergroup and equivalent units) calculated using six methodologies: (1) a fixed value of porosity of 10 percent in all units evaluated; (2) a unique average porosity (per well) from wireline-derived porosity (neutron, sonic, and/or density porosity for each unit); (3) porosity values from core analysis; (4) a depth-dependent porosity model (Knox Supergroup only); (5) porosity based on a model based on petrophysical facies; and (6) SREs using National Energy Technology Laboratory’s CO2 Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis (CO2-SCREEN beta V2). All methods used the same values for thickness for each unit. However, the areal extent of each assessment was limited by the data available for each method. Estimated volumes were calculated in 1-by-1 kilometer grid cells and summarized as county and total stratigraphic unit volumes. The resultant SREs mass are displayed using boxplots, which allow for comparing data statistics (mean values and variability) between methods. Differences observed in SRE results from the six methods are mainly attributable to differences in the data and conceptual models used to interpret or estimate porosity in each method. Based on this systematic variability between methods, it is inferred that methods 1, 4, and 6 are best used for regional-scale reconnaissance estimates of storage capacity while methods 2, 3, and 5 are more appropriate for local scales where more data is required. All estimates are data-density dependent and different methods require different amounts of data for reasonable assessments. ArcMap 10.5.1 software was used to portray SREs to help visualize spatial variance of estimates for each methodology, and more importantly, to highlight those areas having the greatest total storage potential estimates.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2026

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Speed Distributions

Dark matter direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS cold dark matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way–mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local dark matter speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the dark matter speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the standard halo model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way–mass halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Propagation within Chained Models for Machine Learning Reconstruction of Neutrino-LAr Interactions

Sequential or chained models are increasingly prevalent in machine learning for scientific applications, due to their flexibility and ease of development. Chained models are particularly useful when a task is separable into distinct steps with a hierarchy of meaningful intermediate representations. In reliability-critical tasks, it is important to quantify the confidence of model inferences. However, chained models pose an additional challenge for uncertainty quantification, especially when input uncertainties need to be propagated. In such cases, a fully uncertainty-aware chain of models is required, where each step accepts a probability distribution over the input space, and produces a probability distribution over the output space. In this work, we present a case study for adapting a single model within an existing chain, designed for reconstruction within neutrino-Argon interactions, developed for neutrino oscillation experiments such as MicroBooNE, ICARUS, and the future DUNE experiment. We test the performance of an input uncertainty-enabled model against an uncertainty-blinded model using a method for generating synthetic noise. By comparing these two, we assess the increase in inference quality achieved by exposing models to upstream uncertainty estimates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1990

Dynamics and configurations of galaxy triplets

The purpose is to infer the probable dynamical states of galaxy triplets by the observed data on their configurations. Two methods are proposed for describing the distributions of the triplet configuration parameters characterizing a tendency to alignment and hierarchy: (1) obtaining a representative sample of configurations and determining its statistical parameters (moments and percentages); and (2) dividing the region of possible configurations of triple systems (Agekian and Anosova, 1967) into a set of segments and finding the probabilities for the configurations to find themselves in each of them. Both these methods allow representation of the data by numerical simulations as well as observations. The effect of projection was studied. It rather overestimates the alignment and hierarchy of the triple systems. Among the parameters of interest there are found some parameters that are least sensitive to projection effects. The samples consist of simulated galaxy triplets (with hidden mass) as well as of 46 probably physical triple galaxies (Karachentseva et al., 1979). The observed triples as well as numerical models show a tendency to alignment. The triple galaxies do not show any tendency to hierarchy (formation of the temporary binaries), but this tendency may be present for simulated triplets without significant dark matter. The significant hidden mass (of order ten times the total mass of a triplet) decreases the probability of forming a binary and so weakens the hierarchy. Small galaxy groups consisting of 3 to 7 members are probably the most prevalent types of galaxy aggregate (Gorbatsky, 1987). Galaxy triplets are the simplest groups, but dynamically nontrivial ones.

Anosova, Joanna P.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Patterns of seismic activity preceding large earthquakes

A mechanical model of seismic faults is employed to investigate the seismic activities that occur prior to major events. The block-and-spring model dynamically generates a statistical distribution of smaller slipping events that precede large events, and the results satisfy the Gutenberg-Richter law. The scaling behavior during a loading cycle suggests small but systematic variations in space and time with maximum activity acceleration near the future epicenter. Activity patterns inferred from data on seismicity in California demonstrate a regional aspect; increased activity in certain areas are found to precede major earthquake events. One example is given regarding the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 which is located near a fault section associated with increased activity levels.

Shaw, Bruce E.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Constraints of Melting, Sea-Level and the Paleoclimate from GRACE

To gauge the accuracy of the GRACE data, we have undertaken a study to compare deformations predicted by GRACE inferences of seasonal water loading to crustal position variations determined from GRACE data. Two manuscripts that resulted from this study are attached. We found a very high correlation between the GRACE and GPS determinations for South America [Duvis et al., 2004]. We also developed a statistical approach for choosing which Stokes coefficients to include. This approach proves to be somewhat more accurate than the traditional Gaussian filter [Duvis et al., 2005].

Davis, James L.↗