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DOE OSTI2026

A Guide for Public Utility Commissions: Building Internal Technical Capacity and Recruiting Talent for Grid Resilience

This guide offers insight into how PUCs can strategically expand their technical workforce to meet evolving gird resilience demands. It outlines critical skill sets needed to support informed regulatory decision-making around resilience, such as modeling and weather forecasting, electric power systems analysis, and advanced data interpretation. In addition, it provides strategies for developing technical talent both internally and through additional recruitment efforts. Two appendices provide a list of grid resilience training resources and a compendium of sample job descriptions that reflect grid resilience technical expertise for PUC consideration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Simplified Building Modeling Approach for Identifying Whole Building Retrofits

Building Energy Modeling (BEM) is an effective strategy for optimizing new and retrofit building design, evaluating its energy savings potential and rating its energy performance. However, because of the complexity and expense of modeling, only a small percentage of buildings are simulated. Over 80% of buildings are <25,000 ft2, and the cost associated with BEM can be a big deterrent for reaching this subsector, which usually ends up complying with energy codes and qualifying for incentives using prescriptive measures or generalized design guides. Similarly, efficiency considerations for small building retrofits are often identified through deemed measures or Technical Reference Manuals, which though a scalable and convenient approach, can limit innovation in design and optimization of measures. Simplification of the modeling process, where appropriate, can lead to increased energy savings and more informed decision making. This paper will discuss the development of a ruleset for a simplified approach based on the Performance Rating Method (PRM) contained in ASHRAE Standard 90.1. The approach aims to simplify and lower the cost of the energy modeling process in a controlled and documented manner. An anticipated outcome is an increased use of BEM and its effectiveness in the design, retrofit and operation of commercial buildings. In addition, simplification of the modeling process will result in fewer errors from misinterpretations of both program requirements and program intent in simulation software. The paper will discuss the need and advantages of a simplified modeling approach for whole building retrofits and the technical process for achieving the same.

Goel, Supriya↗

DOE OSTI2025

An international study on THM modelling of the full-scale heater experiment at Mont Terri laboratory

We present results from an international model comparison study of the Full-Scale Emplacement (FE) experiment in Opalinus Clay at the Mont Terri Laboratory, Switzerland. Based on a provided parameter set the teams decided which parameters they adopted for their models, whether they considered the excavation and the ventilation phase in addition to the heating phase and if they included technical features like the shotcrete or the EDZ. The teams were able to reproduce the measured parameters temperature, relative humidity and pore pressure. The modelled results for temperature agree very closely between the teams especially in the sensors in Opalinus Clay. All teams were able to reproduce the redistribution of water in the bentonite backfill due to heating. The evolution of the relative humidity showed similar trends with differences in the intensity of the dry out effect. To model the pore pressure evolution is more complex because it comprises the full interaction of the coupled THM processes. The spread between the pore pressure modelled by the teams was larger, with some teams overestimating the pressure increase due to heating and some teams overestimating the extent of drainage. The agreement of modelled results with measurements improves with larger distance to the heater. We conclude that the EDZ and the shotcrete potentially influence the behaviour of the rock causing higher differences closer to the heater. Further research is needed to better implement those influences into the models. Based on the calibrated models, the future evolution of temperature, relative humidity and pore pressure was predicted over the next 10 years following a change of the heat power applied in 2023 and 2024. Again, the predicted temperatures agree very closely between the teams. Most teams do not expect an increase in relative humidity during the next 10 years after the initial dry-out.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Public – Private Partnership to Promote Efficient Manufacturing and Workforce Development (IAC Final Technical Report)

Through delivering ninety (90) energy assessments to small- and medium-sized manufacturing facilities in and around Tennessee, significant understandings were gained through providing detailed energy assessment reports to manufacturers and training seventy-seven (77) engineering students in which thirty-five (35) certified IAC students were recognized by DOE. The robust involvement of Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), local utility and Tennessee Tech’s Cybersecurity Education, Research, and Outreach Center (CEROC) in majority of assessments made the technical operation very effective where leaded to 40.5% implementation rate of energy recommendations. Other benefits of the award to the public are a dynamic modeling tool capable of analyzing existing cooling towers for energy use optimization was developed and presented to DOE IAC, providing technical assistance to non-participating manufacturers in the form of workshop and training, publishing fifteen (15) peer-reviewed conference and journal papers as well as a book chapter in the area of industrial energy efficiency field, assisting the TVA Magnolia Combined Cycle Power Plant to become the First 50001 Ready Certified Power Plant in the U.S. through briefing them on ISO 50001 and 50001 Ready as well as providing an energy assessment to the plant, assisted the new IAC center at Clemson University with on-site and remote support, and provided assessment and training in unique areas of water, waste water, cyber security and smart manufacturing to our clients, students and community.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development and Implementation of a New AI-Based Tool to Support Fast Reactor Software Model Generation and Validation

This report summarizes FY26 work to develop Maggie, an artificial intelligence-based assistant designed to support software model generation and validation activities for fast reactor analysis codes. The project established a modular, code-agnostic software architecture that separates reusable agent capabilities from code-specific knowledge and tools, with initial implementation focused on the FRP-supported fast reactor safety analysis code SAS4A/SASSYS1 (SAS). A curated SAS-specific knowledge base was assembled from the code manual, training materials, historical analysis reports, and representative input files, and was integrated through retrieval-augmented generation to ground Maggie’s responses in authoritative sources. Maggie was deployed on the internal Argonne network, where it demonstrated practical user-facing capability as a chatbot for answering natural language questions about SAS and retrieving relevant technical information. Demonstration cases also showed that Maggie can generate useful snippets of SAS input for selected modeling tasks, while highlighting current limitations in reliability and consistency for more complex input generation tasks. Overall, the FY26 effort established the technical foundation for an AI-assisted capability intended to improve the efficiency, consistency, and accessibility of fast reactor software model development at Argonne and, with further improvements, to support eventual use by the broader fast reactor community, including industry users of FRP-supported analysis tools.

Thomas, Rachel [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL),↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electric vehicle batteries alone could satisfy short-term grid storage demand by as early as 2030

The energy transition will require a rapid deployment of renewable energy (RE) and electric vehicles (EVs) where other transit modes are unavailable. EV batteries could complement RE generation by providing short-term grid services. However, estimating the market opportunity requires an understanding of many socio-technical parameters and constraints. We quantify the global EV battery capacity available for grid storage using an integrated model incorporating future EV battery deployment, battery degradation, and market participation. We include both in-use and end-of-vehicle-life use phases and find a technical capacity of 32–62 terawatt-hours by 2050. Low participation rates of 12%–43% are needed to provide short-term grid storage demand globally. Participation rates fall below 10% if half of EV batteries at end-of-vehicle-life are used as stationary storage. Short-term grid storage demand could be met as early as 2030 across most regions. Our estimates are generally conservative and offer a lower bound of future opportunities.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

DEMOS (Demographic Microsimulator Tool for Longitudinal Synthetic Population) [SWR-25-135] related to NLR SWR-26-076

The Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) is an agent-based simulation framework used to model the evolution of population demographic characteristics and lifecycle events, such as education attainment, marital status, and other key transitions. DEMOS modules are designed to capture the interdependencies between short-term and long-term lifecycle events, which are often influential in downstream transportation and land-use modeling. A key feature of DEMOS is its ability to track changes in an agent’s demographic status from year t to year t + 1. This structure allows the model to evolve populations over any user-defined time horizon. As a result, DEMOS is well suited for analyzing medium- and long-term transportation-related decisions, including household vehicle transactions (e.g., purchasing, selling, or replacing vehicles) and work location choices. Core features of DEMOS include the modeling of more than ten lifecycle events, behaviorally realistic patterns informed by long-running panel data, explicit representation of interdependencies among lifecycle processes, and a flexible, modular simulation architecture. A technical memorandum describing DEMOS is available here. The memorandum provides an overview of the framework’s functionality, model structure, input and output data, and its applications in transportation planning and broader policy analysis contexts. Interested readers are also encouraged to consult the paper listed below for additional details on the DEMOS methodology. Sun, Bingrong, Shivam Sharda, Venu M. Garikapati, Mohamed Amine Bouzaghrane, Juan Caicedo, Srinath Ravulaparthy, Isabel Viegas de Lima, Ling Jin, C. Anna Spurlock, and Paul Waddell. "Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life." Transportation Research Record (2025): 03611981251333339.

Sun, Bingrong [National Laboratory of the Rockies ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Orthogonality broadcasting and quantum position verification

The no-cloning theorem leads to information-theoretic security in various quantum cryptographic protocols. However, this security typically derives from a possibly weaker property that classical information encoded in certain quantum states cannot be broadcast. To formally capture this property, we introduce the study of ‘orthogonality broadcasting.’ When attempting to broadcast the orthogonality of two different qubit bases, we establish that the power of classical and quantum communication is equivalent. However, quantum communication is shown to be strictly more powerful for broadcasting orthogonality in higher dimensions. We then relate orthogonality broadcasting to quantum position verification and provide a new method for establishing error bounds in the no pre-shared entanglement model that can address protocols previous methods could not. Our key technical contribution is an uncertainty relation that uses the geometric relation of the states that undergo broadcasting rather than the non-commutative aspect of the final measurements.

quantum cryptography↗

DOE OSTI2024

Status and perspectives of the ICARUS experiment at the Fermilab Short Baseline Neutrino program

In this study, the ICARUS collaboration has employed the 760 t T600 detector in a successful three-year physics run at the underground LNGS laboratory, performing a sensitive search for LSND-like anomalous ν e appearance in the CERN Neutrino to Gran Sasso beam, which contributed to the constraints on the allowed neutrino oscillation parameters to a narrow region around Δm 2 ~ 1 eV 2 . After a significant overhaul at CERN, the T600 detector has been installed at Fermilab. In 2020 the cryogenic commissioning began with detector cool down, liquid Argon filling and recirculation. ICARUS then started its operation collecting the first neutrino events from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) and the Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) beam off-axis, which were used to test the ICARUS event selection, reconstruction and analysis algorithms. ICARUS successfully completed its commissioning phase in June 2022, moving then to data taking for neutrino oscillation physics, aiming at first to either confirm or refute the claim by Neutrino-4 short-baseline reactor. ICARUS will also jointly search for evidence of sterile neutrinos together with the Short-Baseline Near Detector, within the Fermilab Short-Baseline Neutrino program experiment, and will perform measurements of neutrino cross sections with both beams and several Beyond Standard Model searches with the NuMI beam. In this paper, the main technical achievements of the ICARUS detector subsystems (Time Projection Chambers, Light Detection System, Cosmic Ray Tagger, Trigger and Data Acquisition) obtained with both BNB and NuMI neutrino beams during the commissioning phase, will be presented in terms of the overall detector performance and capability to select and reconstruct neutrino events.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Summary of Structural Material Modeling Development for the NEAMS Program in Fiscal Year 2020

This report summarizes work performed during Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the U.S. Department of Energy?s Nuclear Engineering Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program for the Structural Materials and Chemistry Technical Area in the work package entitled "MS- 20IN050104 - Structural Materials - INL." The Structural Materials and Chemistry Technical Area is a relatively new component of the NEAMS program, and is currently focusing on developing simulation capabilities to support the deployment of nuclear energy in the areas of molten salt reactor chemistry, light water reactor (LWR) structural material degradation, and structural material behavior for advanced reactor applications. INL performed work for to advance capabilities for simulation of structural material behavior in both LWR and advanced reactor applications in the work described here.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of Integrated Safety and Security Models for Comprehensive Reliability and Resiliency Evaluation

The security of the electric grid and supporting energy systems is crucial to national security. One of the complexities in analyzing the security of energy systems is the safety consequences that may result from accidents. For energy systems, the goal is to ensure that they operate as intended and that any consequences are mitigated or prevented. The integration of safety and security is paramount to protecting these systems from attacks and ensuring that large consequences are prevented. This report describes an integrated safety and security methodology to evaluate cybersecurity events that can lead to large consequences. This novel approach first describes how Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) provides a digital causal analysis for Bayesian Networks (BNs). The use of STPA causal analysis provides a systematic approach to constructing BNs that adequately model cyber scenarios that result in consequences. When combined with the technical principles described in Risk-Informed Management of Enterprise Systems (RIMES), a comprehensive risk-informed cybersecurity analysis results that allows decision-makers to prioritize systems that most impact risk.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Grain Boundary Relaxation (GBR) Approach for Manufacturing High Strength Nanocrystalline Lightweight Metals

The overarching goal of the project was to conduct research and development work as proposed in the Statement of Project Objective (SOPO) of the award document DE-FE-0009116. The project had 4 tasks and 12 milestones. All the milestone deliverables were completed. The accomplishments of the project objectives and technical discussions are described in Sections 3 and 4, respectively. The modeling and simulation work indicated that to increase the strength and stability of nanocrystalline aluminum (Al), selection of dopants, such as Mg, is necessary. It was predicted that the crystallite size should be less than 50 nm to give high strength. On the basis of modeling, cryo-milling of Al was conducted with the addition of Mg as a function of different times. The crystallite size of the cryo-milled powders was determined by XRD and TEM. Both measurements showed that the actual crystallite size of the grain was <40 nm. The thermal stability of the grain size was established as a function of temperature. It was established that the grain size was < 50 nm up to 500C. The crystallite size of the bulk sample prepared by spark plasma sintering (SPS) and cold spray (CS) additive manufacturing was less than <40 nm. The mechanical properties of the bulk samples prepared by SPS and CS, showed excellent microhardness, good tensile properties (>200 MPa) with moderate ductility and improved fatigue performance. Adding yttria stabilized zirconia (YSZ) improved the build thick of the CS sample, however the YSZ was getting embedded into the sample. A highly dense SPS samples sent for 3rd party testing to the Innovation Testing Services showed a minimum hardness of 180 HV with an average tensile strength of 512.5 MPa. The high cycle fatigue tests also showed an endurance limit of 179.5 MPa. The Energy cost evaluations showed an overall energy cost of around $\$$17.05 for the cryomilling and SPS processes and the total manufacturing cost calculations of $\$$78.14 for 1 kg of sample. The energy cost to prepare a Kg of CS sample is $\$$17.60 and the overall manufacturing cost is $\$$86.85.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving unfolding and systematic uncertainty estimation using generative diffusion networks (Final Technical Report)

This final technical report summarizes the key accomplishments on the unfolding using diffusion model project, a DOE award received by PI Pierre-Hugues Beauchemin at Tufts University. This project main goal was to investigate the potential of diffusion models for unfolding experimental High Energy Physics data from detector effects while controlling systematics uncertainties. The project accomplished its goals by completing the following objectives: 1) Performing an object-by-object, event-by-event unfolding of various kinematic distributions reconstructed from detector data in HEP in a way that keeps correlations between unfolded observables while demonstrating competitive performance compared to standard algorithms used in the field; 2) Address the generalization problem by developing an unfolding algorithm capable to correctly infer the underlying distributions of observables and processes never seen before, while controlling the dominant theoretical uncertainties affecting the process, therefore increasing the effectiveness, the precision, and the applicability of the developed algorithm; 3) Understand the theoretical foundations between the developed algorithm so to extend it to applications beyond experimental HEP, for broader benefits to the society. This report provides an overview of the accomplishments related to each of these key objectives.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A daily, 250 m and real-time gross primary productivity product (2000–present) covering the contiguous United States

Abstract. Gross primary productivity (GPP) quantifies the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) fixed by plants through photosynthesis. Although as a key quantity of terrestrial ecosystems, there is a lack of high-spatial-and-temporal-resolution, real-time and observation-based GPP products. To address this critical gap, here we leverage a state-of-the-art vegetation index, near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRV), along with accurate photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), to produce a SatelLite Only Photosynthesis Estimation (SLOPE) GPP product for the contiguous United States (CONUS). Compared to existing GPP products, the proposed SLOPE product is advanced in its spatial resolution (250 m versus >500 m), temporal resolution (daily versus 8 d), instantaneity (latency of 1 d versus >2 weeks) and quantitative uncertainty (on a per-pixel and daily basis versus no uncertainty information available). These characteristics are achieved because of several technical innovations employed in this study: (1) SLOPE couples machine learning models with MODIS atmosphere and land products to accurately estimate PAR. (2) SLOPE couples highly efficient and pragmatic gap-filling and filtering algorithms with surface reflectance acquired by both Terra and Aqua MODIS satellites to derive a soil-adjusted NIRV (SANIRV) dataset. (3) SLOPE couples a temporal pattern recognition approach with a long-term Cropland Data Layer (CDL) product to predict dynamic C4 crop fraction. Through developing a parsimonious model with only two slope parameters, the proposed SLOPE product explains 85 % of the spatial and temporal variations in GPP acquired from 49 AmeriFlux eddy-covariance sites (324 site years), with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.63 gC m−2 d−1. The median R2 over C3 and C4 crop sites reaches 0.87 and 0.94, respectively, indicating great potentials for monitoring crops, in particular bioenergy crops, at the field level. With such a satisfactory performance and its distinct characteristics in spatiotemporal resolution and instantaneity, the proposed SLOPE GPP product is promising for biological and environmental research, carbon cycle research, and a broad range of real-time applications at the regional scale. The archived dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1786 (download page: https://daac.ornl.gov/daacdata/cms/SLOPE_GPP_CONUS/data/, last access: 20 January 2021) (Jiang and Guan, 2020), and the real-time dataset is available upon request.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning for Gearbox Fault Prediction by Using Both Scada and Modeled Data

This presentation outlines the work in the paper titled "Prognostics of Wind Turbine Gearbox Bearing Failures Using SCADA and Modeled Data" published by the PHM Society and presented at its 2020 annual conference. It is accessible at https://papers.phmsociety.org/index.php/phmconf/article/download/1292/862. The technical work is on machine learning approaches for prognostics for gearbox faults. The methodology combines SCADA time series data and physics domain modeling data, derived from the models developed by the NREL team, as inputs to machine learning models to predict gearbox bearing failures with one month lead time. Based on SCADA data, modeled data, and bearing failure log data from an actual wind plant, the performances of different machine-learning models on unseen data are then evaluated using industry-standard metrics such as precision, recall, and F1 score, and AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic curve). Results show the overall system performance enhancement in predicting bearing failure when modeled data are included with SCADA data. The reduction in terms of false alarms is about 50%, and improvement in terms of precision, and F1 score, and AUC is about 33%, and 12%, and 6% respectively, based on the best modeling case in this study.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

DOE OSTI2026

PyHydroGeophysX: An extensible open-source platform for integrating hydrological models with geophysical measurements

Hydrological models and geophysical measurements are widely used tools for understanding subsurface hydrological processes relevant to water resource management, yet they typically remain disconnected due to technical barriers. We present PyHydroGeophysX, an open-source Python platform bridging this gap by providing standardized interfaces between hydrological modeling software (MODFLOW, ParFlow) and geophysical simulation tools (PyGIMLi, SimPEG). The platform implements bidirectional workflows: translating hydrological outputs into simulated geophysical responses through petrophysical models, and extracting hydrological information from geophysical inversions. Key features include bidirectional workflow modules, configurable petrophysical models, time-lapse inversion with temporal regularization, parallel computing, and mesh utilities for property transfer between geophysical and hydrological grids. The modular architecture of PyHydroGeophysX enables researchers to incorporate additional models and methods, fostering broader adoption of integrated hydrogeophysical approaches. The software is freely available on GitHub and is intended for researchers and practitioners working at the intersection of hydrology and geophysics.

Hydrogeophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-Sensitivity Nuclear-Structure Studies of Rare Isotopes and Few-Electron Systems

This final technical report presents the work that was completed during the award period for DE-SC0017649 related to the structure of nuclei for both astrophysics and tests of the Standard Model, namely: Using trapped bare (and few-electron) radioactive ions to probe the nature of elec- troweak decay modes under extreme conditions for structure and astrophysics, Providing experimental nuclear structure guidance to nuclear theory in systems relevant for testing the Standard Model, and Working with the HPGe sub-group of the FRIB decay station collaboration, which includes the technical development of a next-generation γ-ray spectrometer.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Flame Chemistry Workshop: a perspective on challenges and strategic actions in combustion experiments and chemical kinetics modeling

Continued progress in the development of predictive models for combustion chemistry—including ignition and flame behavior, species evolution, and combustion system performance—relies on overcoming enduring and emerging challenges in experimental measurements, theoretical formulations, and chemical kinetics mechanism construction. As combustion science continues to coincide with advances in sustainable fuels development, plasma technologies, and automated modeling capabilities, the need for coordinated, community-driven strategies is essential. The Flame Chemistry Workshop (FCWS), held biennially before the International Symposium on Combustion, serves as a dedicated platform to identify, consolidate, and address these challenges in a structured and collaborative manner. This perspective arises from discussions at the 7th FCWS in Milan, Italy (2024), and presents a collective view of the critical barriers currently limiting progress. Across the five technical domains discussed during the 7th FCWS – sustainable fuels combustion, advanced diagnostics for combustion measurements, experiments and modeling in plasma combustion, artificial intelligence and automated methods for theory and mechanisms generation, and chemical kinetic models—a series of persistent and emerging scientific challenges were identified, highlighting the need for deeper integration between three areas: theory, experiments, and modeling. In conclusion, the present article concisely describes present challenges that were identified in each of the technical domains in an effort to streamline and coordinate solutions to accelerate progress in combustion science.

Chemical kinetics↗