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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Sensor network based solar forecasting using a local vector autoregressive ridge framework

The significant improvements and falling costs of photovoltaic (PV) technology make solar energy a promising resource, yet the cloud induced variability of surface solar irradiance inhibits its effective use in grid-tied PV generation. Short-term irradiance forecasting, especially on the minute scale, is critically important for grid system stability and auxiliary power source management. Compared to the trending sky imaging devices, irradiance sensors are inexpensive and easy to deploy but related forecasting methods have not been well researched. The prominent challenge of applying classic time series models on a network of irradiance sensors is to address their varying spatio-temporal correlations due to local changes in cloud conditions. We propose a local vector autoregressive framework with ridge regularization to forecast irradiance without explicitly determining the wind field or cloud movement. By using local training data, our learned forecast model is adaptive to local cloud conditions and by using regularization, we overcome the risk of overfitting from the limited training data. Our systematic experimental results showed an average of 19.7% RMSE and 20.2% MAE improvement over the benchmark Persistent Model for 1-5 minute forecasts on a comprehensive 25-day dataset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hardware-Based Emulator with Deep Learning Model for Building Energy Control and Prediction Based on Occupancy Sensors’ Data

Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) is the largest source of residential energy consumption. Occupancy sensors’ data can be used for HVAC control since it indicates the number of people in the building. HVAC and sensors form a typical cyber-physical system (CPS). In this paper, we aim to build a hardware-based emulation platform to study the occupancy data’s features, which can be further extracted by using machine learning models. In particular, we propose two hardware-based emulators to investigate the use of wired/wireless communication interfaces for occupancy sensor-based building CPS control, and the use of deep learning to predict the building energy consumption with the sensor data. We hypothesize is that the building energy consumption may be predicted by using the occupancy data collected by the sensors, and question what type of prediction model should be used to accurately predict the energy load. Another hypothesis is that an in-lab hardware/software platform could be built to emulate the occupancy sensing process. The machine learning algorithms can then be used to analyze the energy load based on the sensing data. To test the emulator, the occupancy data from the sensors is used to predict energy consumption. The synchronization scheme between sensors and the HVAC server will be discussed. We have built two hardware/software emulation platforms to investigate the sensor/HVAC integration strategies, and used an enhanced deep learning model—which has sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory (Seq2Seq LSTM)—with an attention model to predict the building energy consumption with the preservation of the intrinsic patterns. Because the long-range temporal dependencies are captured, the Seq2Seq models may provide a higher accuracy by using LSTM architectures with encoder and decoder. Meanwhile, LSTMs can capture the temporal and spatial patterns of time series data. The attention model can highlight the most relevant input information in the energy prediction by allocating the attention weights. The communication overhead between the sensors and the HVAC control server can also be alleviated via the attention mechanism, which can automatically ignore the irrelevant information and amplify the relevant information during CNN training. Our experiments and performance analysis show that, compared with the traditional LSTM neural network, the performance of the proposed method has a 30% higher prediction accuracy.

Ye, Zhijing↗
DOE OSTI2022

GW-PINN: A deep learning algorithm for solving groundwater flow equations

Machine learning methods provide new perspective for more convenient and efficient prediction of groundwater flow. In this study, a deep learning method “GW-PINN” without labeled data for solving groundwater flow equations with wells was proposed. GW-PINN takes the physics inform neural network (PINN) as the backbone and uses either the hard or soft constraint in the loss function for training. A locally refined sampling strategy (LRS) is adopted to generate the consistent spatial sampling points for problems with strong hydraulic head change, and then combined with an appropriate temporal sampling scheme to obtain the final spatial-temporal sampling points. A snowball-style two-stage training strategy by dividing the temporal domain into two subdomains is designed to decrease the sampling points. Five cases were designed to test the training performance of GW-PINN under different sampling strategies and two constraints. The predicted results of GW-PINN were compared with MODFLOW and the analytical solution. The results demonstrate that GW-PINN possesses strong ability in capturing the hydraulic head change for both confined and un-confined aquifers. The hard constraint owns more robust learning ability than the soft constraint. The LRS strategy can generate more accurate results with much fewer sampling points than traditional sampling strategies, and the snowball-style two-stage training strategy is significantly efficient for problems with the drastic change of hydraulic head. Additionally, the application of GW-PINN as a surrogate model for parameterized groundwater flow equations is illustrated. This study provides an option tool for efficient groundwater flow simulation, especially for those with local refinements are needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intracardiac Electrical Imaging using the 12-lead ECG: A Machine Learning Approach using Synthetic Data

Current state-of-the-art techniques for non-invasive imaging of cardiac electrical phenomena require voltage recordings from dozens of different torso locations and anatomical models built from expensive medical diagnostic imaging procedures. Here this study aimed to assess if recent machine learning advances could alternatively reconstruct electroanatomical maps at clinically relevant resolutions using only the standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) as input. To that end, a computational study was conducted to generate a dataset of over 16000 detailed cardiac simulations, which was then used to train neural network (NN) architectures designed to exploit both spatial and temporal correlations in the ECG signal. Analysis over a validation set showed average errors in activation map reconstruction below 1.7 msec over 75 intracardiac locations. Furthermore, phenotypical patterns of activation and the morphology of the activation potential were correctly reconstructed. The approach offers opportunities to stratify patients non-invasively, both retrospectively and prospectively, using metrics otherwise only available through invasive clinical procedures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local Power-Voltage Sensitivity and Thevenin Impedance Estimation from Phasor Measurements

This paper describes how to use voltage phasor measurements to produce a sensitivity matrix that describes how real and reactive power injections at a node on a distribution network affect the local voltage magnitude and angle. Rather than estimating the sensitivity directly, the voltage phasor measurements and power commands/measurements are used to estimate the unbalanced, three-phase Thevenin impedance. The Thevenin impedance estimation is conducted using recursive least squares on temporal difference measurements. The Thevenin impedance and voltage phasor measurement are then used to build the local power-voltage sensitivity matrix with the closed form expression for the Jacobian of the power flow manifold. Hardware-in-the-loop simulations with phasor measurement units providing real phasor measurements are used to evaluate the recursive temporal difference Thevenin impedance estimation and Thevenin-based power-voltage sensitivity methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning stochastic dynamics with statistics-informed neural network

We introduce a machine-learning framework named statistics-informed neural network (SINN) for learning stochastic dynamics from data. This new architecture was theoretically inspired by a universal approximation theorem for stochastic systems, which we introduce in this paper, and the projection-operator formalism for stochastic modeling. Here, we devise mechanisms for training the neural network model to reproduce the correct statistical behavior of a target stochastic process. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that a well-trained SINN can reliably approximate both Markovian and non-Markovian stochastic dynamics. We demonstrate the applicability of SINN to coarse-graining problems and the modeling of transition dynamics. Furthermore, we show that the obtained reduced-order model can be trained on temporally coarse-grained data and hence is well suited for rare-event simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

MSASGCN : Multi-Head Self-Attention Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Traffic flow forecasting is an essential task of an intelligent transportation system (ITS), closely related to intelligent transportation management and resource scheduling. Dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies in traffic data make traffic flow forecasting to be a challenging task. Most existing research cannot model dynamic spatial and temporal correlations to achieve well-forecasting performance. The multi-head self-attention mechanism is a valuable method to capture dynamic spatial-temporal correlations, and combining it with graph convolutional networks is a promising solution. Therefore, we propose a multi-head self-attention spatiotemporal graph convolutional network (MSASGCN) model. It can effectively capture local correlations and potential global correlations of spatial structures, can handle dynamic evolution of the road network, and, in the time dimension, can effectively capture dynamic temporal correlations. Experiments on two real datasets verify the stability of our proposed model, obtaining a better prediction performance than the baseline algorithms. The correlation metrics get significantly reduced compared with traditional time series prediction methods and deep learning methods without using graph neural networks, according to MAE and RMSE results. Compared with advanced traffic flow forecasting methods, our model also has a performance improvement and a more stable prediction performance. We also discuss some problems and challenges in traffic forecasting.

Cao, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2021

CASTELO: clustered atom subtypes aided lead optimization—a combined machine learning and molecular modeling method

Background: Drug discovery is a multi-stage process that comprises two costly major steps: pre-clinical research and clinical trials. Among its stages, lead optimization easily consumes more than half of the pre-clinical budget. We propose a combined machine learning and molecular modeling approach that partially automates lead optimization workflow in silico, providing suggestions for modification hot spots. Results: The initial data collection is achieved with physics-based molecular dynamics simulation. Contact matrices are calculated as the preliminary features extracted from the simulations. To take advantage of the temporal information from the simulations, we enhanced contact matrices data with temporal dynamism representation, which are then modeled with unsupervised convolutional variational autoencoder (CVAE). Finally, conventional and CVAE-based clustering methods are compared with metrics to rank the submolecular structures and propose potential candidates for lead optimization. Conclusion: With no need for extensive structure-activity data, our method provides new hints for drug modification hotspots which can be used to improve drug potency and reduce the lead optimization time. It can potentially become a valuable tool for medicinal chemists.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

LAF-Net: A Deep Residual and Cross-Attention Framework for Day-Ahead Load Forecasting: Preprint

Accurate day-ahead load forecasting is essential for reliable power system operations and market efficiency. System operators such as the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) rely on forecasts from multiple vendors, yet combining them effectively remains a persistent challenge due to vendor-specific biases. This paper presents a novel LSTM-Attention Fusion Network with Error Representation (LAF-Net) that enhances day-ahead hourly load forecasting through deep residual learning and multi-modal cross-attention. The proposed model builds a historical error memory from past vendor performance and dynamically queries it with future hour context to generate adaptive, hour-specific trust weights for each vendor. A bounded residual correction further refines forecasts by mitigating systematic and temporally localized errors. Tested on real MISO LBA data with multi-vendor forecasts, LAF-Net consistently outperforms the best vendor baseline across all 38 LBAs, achieving more than a 40% reduction in system-level mean absolute error (MAE) during peak load hours relative to the best vendor baseline.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

First application of a digital mirror Langmuir probe for real-time plasma diagnosis

We report for the first time, a digital Mirror Langmuir Probe (MLP) has successfully sampled plasma temperature, ion saturation current, and floating potential together on a single probe tip in real time in a radio-frequency driven helicon linear plasma device. This is accomplished by feedback control of the bias sweep to ensure a good fit to I–V characteristics with a high frequency, high power digital amplifier, and field-programmable gate array controller. Measurements taken by the MLP were validated by a low speed I–V characteristic manually collected during static plasma conditions. Plasma fluctuations, induced by varying the axial magnetic field($\widetilde{f}$ = 10 Hz), were also successfully monitored with the MLP. Further refinement of the digital MLP pushes it toward a turn-key system that minimizes the time to deployment and lessens the learning curve, positioning the digital MLP as a capable diagnostic for the study of low radio-frequency plasma physics. These demonstrations bolster confidence in fielding such digital MLP diagnostics in magnetic confinement experiments with high spatial and adequate temporal resolution, such as edge plasma, scrape-off layer, and divertor probes.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Autodifferentiable Ensemble Kalman Filters

Data assimilation is concerned with sequentially estimating a temporally evolving state. This task, which arises in a wide range of scientific and engineering applications, is particularly challenging when the state is high-dimensional and the state-space dynamics are unknown. This paper introduces a machine learning framework for learning dynamical systems in data assimilation. Here, our auto-differentiable ensemble Kalman filters (AD-EnKFs) blend ensemble Kalman filters for state recovery with machine learning tools for learning the dynamics. In doing so, AD-EnKFs leverage the ability of ensemble Kalman filters to scale to high-dimensional states and the power of automatic differentiation to train high-dimensional surrogate models for the dynamics. Numerical results using the Lorenz-96 model show that AD-EnKFs outperform existing methods that use expectation-maximization or particle filters to merge data assimilation and machine learning. In addition, AD-EnKFs are easy to implement and require minimal tuning.

autodifferentiation↗
DOE OSTI2022

First application of a digital mirror Langmuir probe for real-time plasma diagnosis

For the first time, a digital Mirror Langmuir probe (MLP) has successfully sampled plasma temperature, ion saturation current, and floating potential together on a single probe tip in real time in a radio-frequency driven helicon linear plasma device. This is accomplished by feedback control of the bias sweep to ensure a good fit to I-V characteristics with a high frequency, high power digital amplifier and field-programmable gate array (FPGA) controller. Measurements taken by the MLP were validated by a low speed I-V characteristic manually collected during static plasma conditions. Plasma fluctuations, induced by varying the axial magnetic field (f̃ = 10 Hz), were also successfully monitored with the MLP. Further refinement of the digital MLP pushes it towards a turn-key system that minimizes the time to deployment and lessens the learning curve, positioning the digital MLP as a capable diagnostic for the study of low radio-frequency plasma physics. These demonstrations bolster confidence in fielding such digital MLP diagnostics in magnetic confinement experiments with high spatial and adequate temporal resolution such as edge plasma, scrape-off layer, and divertor probes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatiotemporal Pattern Recognition in the PMU Signals in the WECC system

Phasor measurement unit (PMU) data has been used by multiple power system applications, including state estimation, post event analysis, oscillation detection, model validation, and many others. Still, due to its big data nature and availability to general research institutions, comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and underlying mechanisms are incomplete. This study applies a set of signal processing and machine learning approaches aiming at deciphering the characteristic behaviors of multiple phasor measurement units (PMUs) attributes (e.g., voltage, frequency, rate of change of frequency, phase angle), including their auto-correlation, cross-dependence, similarities and discrepancies across units and temporal scales, and distributions of anomalies and their linkages to potential external factors such as weather events. Data analytics are applied to PMUs from the U.S. Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. The PMU measurements, recorded events, outages, and weather extremes are all from real world datasets. The findings from the study and mechanistic understanding of the PMU dynamics help provide guidance on system control or preventing blackouts. The derived metrics can be directly used for adjusting or filtering simulated PMU data used for advanced algorithm development.

Hou, Zhangshuan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Successful cognitive aging is associated with thicker anterior cingulate cortex and lower tau deposition compared to typical aging

INTRODUCTION There is no consensus on either the definition of successful cognitive aging (SA) or the underlying neural mechanisms. METHODS We examined the agreement between new and existing definitions using: (1) a novel measure, the cognitive age gap (SA-CAG, cognitive-predicted age minus chronological age), (2) composite scores for episodic memory (SA-EM), (3) non-memory cognition (SA-NM), and (4) the California Verbal Learning Test (SA-CVLT). RESULTS Fair to moderate strength of agreement was found between the four definitions. Most SA groups showed greater cortical thickness compared to typical aging (TA), especially in the anterior cingulate and midcingulate cortices and medial temporal lobes. Greater hippocampal volume was found in all SA groups except SA-NM. Lower entorhinal 18 F-Flortaucipir (FTP) uptake was found in all SA groups. DISCUSSION These findings suggest that a feature of SA, regardless of its exact definition, is resistance to tau pathology and preserved cortical integrity, especially in the anterior cingulate and midcingulate cortices. Highlights: Different approaches have been used to define successful cognitive aging (SA). Regardless of definition, different SA groups have similar brain features. SA individuals have greater anterior cingulate thickness and hippocampal volume. Lower entorhinal tau deposition, but not amyloid beta is related to SA. A combination of cortical integrity and resistance to tau may be features of SA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generalized Quantum Convolution for Multidimensional Data

The convolution operation plays a vital role in a wide range of critical algorithms across various domains, such as digital image processing, convolutional neural networks, and quantum machine learning. In existing implementations, particularly in quantum neural networks, convolution operations are usually approximated by the application of filters with data strides that are equal to the filter window sizes. One challenge with these implementations is preserving the spatial and temporal localities of the input features, specifically for data with higher dimensions. In addition, the deep circuits required to perform quantum convolution with a unity stride, especially for multidimensional data, increase the risk of violating decoherence constraints. In this work, we propose depth-optimized circuits for performing generalized multidimensional quantum convolution operations with unity stride targeting applications that process data with high dimensions, such as hyperspectral imagery and remote sensing. We experimentally evaluate and demonstrate the applicability of the proposed techniques by using real-world, high-resolution, multidimensional image data on a state-of-the-art quantum simulator from IBM Quantum.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent progress in atomic-scale controlled plasma processing

Atomic-scale control in plasma processing is becoming increasingly critical for fabricating of advanced semiconductor devices, particularly as the industry shifts toward three-dimensional (3D) architectures and high-aspect-ratio (HAR) structures. This review presents a comprehensive overview of recent developments in atomic-scale controlled plasma processes, organized along two key directions: the hierarchical structure of plasma–surface interactions and the generational evolution of atomic layer processing (ALP) technologies. We examined the gas phase, where molecular design enables selective generation of ions and radicals; the boundary layer, where transport phenomena govern species delivery into nanoscale features, and the surface, where temperature-dependent reactions and cyclic processing determine etching selectivity and precision. Building on this foundation, we outline five generations of ALP—from thermal atomic layer deposition to transport-aware, temporally and structurally decoupled processes—highlighting the increasing sophistication of process control. The review further explores the transition from empirical recipe development to science-based, data-driven methodologies. By integrating quantum-chemical modeling, advanced diagnostics, and machine learning, we demonstrated how predictive models can link plasma species composition to process outcomes, enabling autonomous and adaptive control strategies. Finally, this review discusses the broader societal implications of plasma process innovation through the E4 quartet: energy and resource efficiency, environmental sustainability, evolutionary advancement, and educational promotion. These principles guide the development of sustainable and intelligent atomic-scale manufacturing technologies that are not only technically advanced but also socially responsible.

Ishikawa, Kenji [Nagoya Univ. (Japan)] (ORCID:0000↗