Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “test statistics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 559 records · Page 31

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon During 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation. The model results will be compared to the simulation of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event. In addition, the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation will be examined.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation. The model results will be compared to the simulation of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event. In addition, the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation will be examined.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Dust Attenuation and H(alpha) Star Formation Rates of Z Approx. 0.5 Galaxies

Using deep narrow-band and broad-band imaging, we identify 401 z approximately 0.40 and 249 z approximately 0.49 H-alpha line-emitting galaxies in the Subaru Deep Field. Compared to other H-alpha surveys at similar redshifts, our samples are unique since they probe lower H-alpha luminosities, are augmented with multi-wavelength (rest-frame 1000AA--1.5 microns) coverage, and a large fraction (20%) of our samples has already been spectroscopically confirmed. Our spectra allow us to measure the Balmer decrement for nearly 60 galaxies with H-beta detected above 5-sigma. The Balmer decrements indicate an average extinction of A(H-alpha)=0.7(uparrow){+1.4}_{-0.7} mag. We find that the Balmer decrement systematically increases with higher H-alpha luminosities and with larger stellar masses, in agreement with previous studies with sparser samples. We find that the SFRs estimated from modeling the spectral energy distribution (SED) is reliable---we derived an "intrinsic" H-alpha luminosity which is then reddened assuming the color excess from SED modeling. The SED-predicted H-alpha luminosity agrees with H-alpha narrow-band measurements over 3 dex (rms of 0.25 dex). We then use the SED SFRs to test different statistically-based dust corrections for H-alpha and find that adopting one magnitude of extinction is inappropriate: galaxies with lower luminosities are less reddened. We find that the luminosity-dependent dust correction of Hopkins et al. yields consistent results over 3 dex (rms of 0.3 dex). Our comparisons are only possible by assuming that stellar reddening is roughly half of nebular reddening. The strong correspondence argue that with SED modeling, we can derive reliable intrinsic SFRs even in the absence of H-alpha measurements at z approximately 0.5.

Ly, Chun↗

THE SuperTIGER Instrument: Measurement of Elemental Abundances of Ultra-Heavy Galactic Cosmic Rays

The SuperTIGER (Super Trans-Iron Galactic Element Recorder) instrument was developed to measure the abundances of galactic cosmic-ray elements from Ne-10 to Zr-40 with individual element resolution and the high statistics needed to test models of cosmic-ray origins. SuperTIGER also makes exploratory measurements of the abundances of elements with 40 < Z < or = 60 and measures the energy spectra of the more abundant elements for Z < or = 30 from about 0.8 to 10 GeV/nucleon. This instrument is an enlarged and higher resolution version of the earlier TIGER instrument. It was designed to provide the largest geometric acceptance possible and to reach as high an altitude as possible, flying on a standard long-duration 1.11 million cu m balloon. SuperTIGER was launched from Williams Field, McMurdo Station, Antarctica, on 2012 December 8, and made about 2.7 revolutions around the South Pole in 55 days of flight, returning data on over 50 x 10(exp 6) cosmic-ray nuclei with Z > or = 10, including approx.1300 with Z > 29 and approx.60 with Z > 49. Here, we describe the instrument, the methods of charge identification employed, the SuperTIGER balloon flight, and the instrument performance.

abundances↗

Hidden-sectors search and probe of discrete symmetries at the REDTOP experiment

The $η$ and $η^{\prime}$ mesons are nearly unique in the particle universe since they are nearly Goldstone bosons, and their decay dynamics are strongly constrained. While earlier experiments collected samples of order $\sim 10^{9}η$, the proposed REDTOP (Rare Eta Decays To Observe Physics Beyond the Standard Model) facility targets $\mathcal{O}(10^{14})η$ and $\mathcal{O}(10^{12})η^\prime$, enabling broad searches for physics beyond the Standard Model. In this work, we present studies evaluating REDTOP sensitivity to processes that couple the Standard Model to New Physics through four portals: the Vector (dark photon), the Scalar (Higgs-mixing), the Axion-like, and the Heavy Lepton. In parallel, the proposed statistics allow precise tests of $CP$ and $T$ invariance and lepton universality and improve determinations of the $η/η'$ transition form factors, which are crucial inputs to the hadronic light-by-light contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment $(g-2)_μ$.

Gatto, C. [INFN, Naples; Northern Illinois U.]↗

Laboratory evaluation of the pointing stability of the ASPS Vernier System

The annular suspension and pointing system (ASPS) is an end-mount experiment pointing system designed for use in the space shuttle. The results of the ASPS Vernier System (AVS) pointing stability tests conducted in a laboratory environment are documented. A simulated zero-G suspension was used to support the test payload in the laboratory. The AVS and the suspension were modelled and incorporated into a simulation of the laboratory test. Error sources were identified and pointing stability sensitivities were determined via simulation. Statistical predictions of laboratory test performance were derived and compared to actual laboratory test results. The predicted mean pointing stability during simulated shuttle disturbances was 1.22 arc seconds; the actual mean laboratory test pointing stability was 1.36 arc seconds. The successful prediction of laboratory test results provides increased confidence in the analytical understanding of the AVS magnetic bearing technology and allows confident prediction of in-flight performance. Computer simulations of ASPS, operating in the shuttle disturbance environment, predict in-flight pointing stability errors less than 0.01 arc seconds.

Source record↗

Dynamic Modeling and Testing of MSRR-1 for Use in Microgravity Environments Analysis

Delicate microgravity science is unlikely to succeed on the International Space Station if vibratory and transient disturbers corrupt the environment. An analytical approach to compute the on-orbit acceleration environment at science experiment locations within a standard payload rack resulting from these disturbers is presented. This approach has been grounded by correlation and comparison to test verified transfer functions. The method combines the results of finite element and statistical energy analysis using tested damping and modal characteristics to provide a reasonable approximation of the total root-mean-square (RMS) acceleration spectra at the interface to microgravity science experiment hardware.

Gattis, Christy↗

Periodicity significance testing with null-signal templates: reassessment of PTF’s SMBH binary candidates

Periodograms are widely employed for identifying periodicity in time series data, yet they often struggle to accurately quantify the statistical significance of detected periodic signals when the data complexity precludes reliable simulations. We develop a data-driven approach to address this challenge by introducing a null-signal template (NST). The NST is created by carefully randomizing the period of each cycle in the periodogram template, rendering it non-periodic. It has the same frequentist properties as a periodic signal template, and we show with simulations that the distribution of false positives is the same as with the original periodic template, regardless of the underlying data. Thus, performing a periodicity search with the NST acts as an effective simulation of the null (no-signal) hypothesis, without having to simulate the noise properties of the data. We apply the NST method to the supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHB) search in the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), where Charisi et al. had previously proposed 33 high signal-to-noise candidates utilizing simulations to quantify their significance. Our approach reveals that these simulations do not capture the complexity of the real data. There are no statistically significant periodic signal detections above the non-periodic background. To improve the search sensitivity, we introduce a Gaussian quadrature based algorithm for the Bayes Factor with correlated noise as a test statistic. We show with simulations that this improves sensitivity to true signals by more than an order of magnitude. However, the Bayes Factor approach also results in no statistically significant detections in the PTF data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Comment on “Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5-T2m” by N. Scafetta (2022)

Scafetta (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl097716) purports to test Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models through a comparison of temperature changes over three decades. Unfortunately, the paper contains numerous conceptual and statistical errors that undermine all of the conclusions. First, no uncertainty is given for the observational temperature difference, making it impossible to assess compatibility with any model result. Second, the CMIP6 data are the ensemble means for each model, but the metric being tested is sensitive to the internal variability and so the full ensemble for each model must be used. When this is corrected, the conclusion that “all models with ECS > 3.0°C overestimate the observed global surface warming” is not sustained. Third, the statistical test in Section 2 would reject all models even in a perfect model setup given sufficient ensemble members, thus the second conclusion “that spatial t-statistics rejects the data-model agreement” is also not sustainable.

CMIP6↗

An Analysis of Rocket Propulsion Testing Costs

The primary mission at NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) is rocket propulsion testing. Such testing is generally performed within two arenas: (1) Production testing for certification and acceptance, and (2) Developmental testing for prototype or experimental purposes. The customer base consists of NASA programs, DOD programs, and commercial programs. Resources in place to perform on-site testing include both civil servants and contractor personnel, hardware and software including data acquisition and control, and 6 test stands with a total of 14 test positions/cells. For several business reasons there is the need to augment understanding of the test costs for all the various types of test campaigns. Historical propulsion test data was evaluated and analyzed in many different ways with the intent to find any correlation or statistics that could help produce more reliable and accurate cost estimates and projections. The analytical efforts included timeline trends, statistical curve fitting, average cost per test, cost per test second, test cost timeline, and test cost envelopes. Further, the analytical effort includes examining the test cost from the perspective of thrust level and test article characteristics. Some of the analytical approaches did not produce evidence strong enough for further analysis. Some other analytical approaches yield promising results and are candidates for further development and focused study. Information was organized for into its elements: a Project Profile, Test Cost Timeline, and Cost Envelope. The Project Profile is a snap shot of the project life cycle on a timeline fashion, which includes various statistical analyses. The Test Cost Timeline shows the cumulative average test cost, for each project, at each month where there was test activity. The Test Cost Envelope shows a range of cost for a given number of test(s). The supporting information upon which this study was performed came from diverse sources and thus it was necessary to build several intermediate databases in order to understand, validate, and manipulate data. These intermediate databases (validated historical account of schedule, test activity, and cost) by themselves are of great value and utility. For example, for the Project Profile, we were able to merged schedule, cost, and test activity. This kind of historical account conveys important information about sequence of events, lead time, and opportunities for improvement in future propulsion test projects. The Product Requirement Document (PRD) file is a collection of data extracted from each project PRD (technical characteristics, test requirements, and projection of cost, schedule, and test activity). This information could help expedite the development of future PRD (or equivalent document) on similar projects, and could also, when compared to the actual results, help improve projections around cost and schedule. Also, this file can be sorted by the parameter of interest to perform a visual review of potential common themes or trends. The process of searching, collecting, and validating propulsion test data encountered a lot of difficulties which then led to a set of recommendations for improvement in order to facilitate future data gathering and analysis.

Ramirez-Pagan, Carmen P.↗

Test Vector Development for Verification and Validation of Heavy-Duty Autonomous Vehicle Operations

The current focus in the ongoing development of autonomous driving systems (ADS) for heavy duty vehicles is that of vehicle operational safety. To this end, developers and researchers alike are working towards a complete understanding of the operating environments and conditions that autonomous vehicles are subject to during their mission. This understanding is critical to the testing and validation phases of the development of autonomous vehicles and allows for the identification of both the nominal and edge case scenarios encountered by these systems. Previous work by the authors saw the development of a comprehensive scenario generation framework to identify an operating domain specification (ODS), or external and internal conditions an autonomous driving system can expect to encounter on its mission to form critical scenario groups for autonomous vehicle testing and validating using statistical patterns, clustering, and correlation. Continuing this prior work, this paper focuses on the generation of test cases based on the critical scenarios identified that can be used to prioritize either the most common nominal driving scenarios or the least common severe driving scenarios. These test cases can then be used validate, through simulation or real-world testing, the operating design domain (ODD) for a generalized driving mission and built upon to identify spatial and temporal impacts on the driving mission of an autonomous vehicle.

Siekmann, Adam↗

A New Method for Evaluating Elastomeric Materials for Use in High Pressure Oxygen

The seal configuration tester (SCT) developed at the Stennis Space Center (SSC) was designed to replicate the intended application of different seat and seal materials in a high pressure oxygen system and assess the wearibility of those materials. Statistical models were used to test the reliability of the SCT in its intended application, and the tests showed very consistent measurements over time, indicating that the device was working as intended. Other statistical designs were used to test different O-ring materials in a high-pressure oxygen system. Those tests indicated that the SCT could be used to rank the performance of O-ring materials in certain environments. The results indicated that some cheaper materials performed as well as, if not better than, other more expensive materials. Different lubrications were integrated in the testing as well and had a significant impact on the performance of the materials. Testing of seat materials is the next stage of this project. An augmentation grant (JAG) was obtained to further this experimental testing at the Stennis Space Center. This part of the project is ongoing at this time and therefore there are no significant accomplishments with respect to seat materials as of yet.

Jordan, Scott M.↗

Testing of hypotheses about altitude decompression sickness by statistical analyses

This communication extends a statistical analysis of forced-descent decompression sickness at altitude in exercising subjects (J Appl Physiol 1994; 76:2726-2734) with a data subset having an additional explanatory variable, rate of ascent. The original explanatory variables for risk-function analysis were environmental pressure of the altitude, duration of exposure, and duration of pure-O2 breathing before exposure; the best fit was consistent with the idea that instantaneous risk increases linearly as altitude exposure continues. Use of the new explanatory variable improved the fit of the smaller data subset, as indicated by log likelihood. Also, with ascent rate accounted for, replacement of the term for linear accrual of instantaneous risk by a term for rise and then decay made a highly significant improvement upon the original model (log likelihood increased by 37 log units). The authors conclude that a more representative data set and removal of the variability attributable to ascent rate allowed the rise-and-decay mechanism, which is expected from theory and observations, to become manifest.

NASA Center JSC↗

Allowables for Structural Composites

In order to obtain the most benefit from building a structure with composite laminates, the strength of the laminate must be known. Based on the "weakest link" theory, the lower strength numbers obtained from testing are the ones to be used for design and analysis. The strength value to be used is determined by a statistical analysis of the test data, and is known as an allowable. MIL-HDBK- 17 outlines procedures to follow for determining these allowables. There are two types of statistically determined allowables, A- Basis and B-Basis. A-Basis is defined as a strength value at which only 1 in 100 specimens will fail with a 95% confidence level. B-Basis is a strength value at which only 10 in 100 specimens will fail with a 95% confidence level. As more specimens are tested a higher value of strength can be used as a valid allowable. Composites are highly process dependent and show much strength variation with environment, so it is critical to test materials and environments that are representative of hardware. Either using data obtained from a previous test series, or extrapolation to a certain temperature is highly discouraged.

Nettles, Alan T.↗

Parametric evaluation of the cost effectiveness of Shuttle payload vibroacoustic test plans

Consideration is given to alternate vibroacoustic test plans for sortie and free flyer Shuttle payloads. Statistical decision models for nine test plans provide a viable method of evaluating the cost effectiveness of alternate vibroacoustic test plans and the associated test levels. The methodology is a major step toward the development of a useful tool for the quantitative tailoring of vibroacoustic test programs to sortie and free flyer payloads. A broader application of the methodology is now possible by the use of the OCTAVE computer code.

Stahle, C. V.↗

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions from the Drag Prediction Workshop

A simple, graphical framework is presented for robust statistical evaluation of results obtained from N-Version testing of a series of RANS CFD codes. The solutions were obtained by a variety of code developers and users for the June 2001 Drag Prediction Workshop sponsored by the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee. The aerodynamic configuration used for the computational tests is the DLR-F4 wing-body combination previously tested in several European wind tunnels and for which a previous N-Version test had been conducted. The statistical framework is used to evaluate code results for (1) a single cruise design point, (2) drag polars and (3) drag rise. The paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning of the results, especially with respect to predictability, Validation, and reporting of solutions.

Hemsch, Michael J.↗