Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “uncertainty distribution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 559 records · Page 31

Improved Calibration of Reflectance Data from the LRO Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) and Implications for Space Weathering

The Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) experiment on Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is a laser altimeter that also measures the strength of the return pulse from the lunar surface. These data have been used to estimate the reflectance of the lunar surface, including regions lacking direct solar illumination. A new calibration of these data is presented that features lower uncertainties overall and more consistent results in the polar regions. We use these data, along with newly available maps of the distribution of lunar maria, also derived from LRO instrument data, to investigate a newly discovered dependence of the albedo of the lunar maria on latitude (Hemingway et al., [2015]). We confirm that there is an increase in albedo with latitude in the lunar maria, and confirm that this variation is not an artifact arising from the distribution of compositions within the lunar maria, using data from the Lunar Prospector Neutron Spectrometer. Radiative transfer modeling of the albedo dependence within the lunar maria is consistent with the very weak to absent dependence of albedo on latitude in the lunar highlands; the lower abundance of the iron source for space weathering products in the lunar highlands weakens the latitude dependence to the extent that it is only weakly detectable in current data. In addition, photometric mod- els and normalization may take into account the fact that the lunar albedo is latitude dependent, but this dependence can cause errors in normalized reflectance of at most 2% for the majority of near-nadir geometries. We also investigate whether the latitude dependent albedo may have obscured detection of small mare deposits at high latitudes. We find that small regions at high latitudes with low roughness similar to the lunar maria are not mare deposits that may have been misclassified owing to high albedos imposed by the latitude dependence. Finally, we suggest that the only modest correlations among space weathering indicators defined for the lunar samples may be due to mixing of soils from distinct latitudes.

Lemelin, M.↗

Strategic Planning with Unscented Optimal Guidance for Urban Air Mobility

This study proposes a strategic trajectory planning framework to support development of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) traffic networks and optimization of UAM aircraft trajectories that are robust to uncertain wind fields. The development of UAM traffic networks considers static aviation constraints and dynamic weather constraints in urban airspace and the connections to ground transportation networks for preliminary selection of feasible time-optimal routes. The trajectory optimization of UAM aircraft utilizes an unscented optimal guidance approach to generate cost-optimal trajectories constrained on the selected sigma values of probability distribution of uncertain wind fields while ensuring that the end-point constraints are met for reducing wind-induced trajectory uncertainty. Unscented guidance commands are assessed based on trajectory perturbations at subsequent end-points in various wind fields by conducting Monte Carlo simulations.An example of wind-optimal UAM corridor and the associated trajectory-based operation volume is created utilizing the perturbations of the unscented trajectories for preliminary assessment of required aircraft separation minima without knowledge of aircraft navigation performance.

Strategic Planning↗

Generation of Continental Scale Percent Tree Cover Product Using Deep-learning and Multi-scale Remote Sensing Data

Spatially explicit percent tree cover (TC) estimation is critical for mapping forest aboveground biomass and its dynamics. While various TC products have been developed, there has not been a generalized framework that can be applied to diverse terrestrial ecosystems due to underlain extreme complexities. Deep learning algorithms can learn a spatial pattern and radiometric characteristics of tree canopy as a robust approximation of physical or empirical models, and thus have emerged as promising and efficient tools for large-scale TC mapping. In this study, we synergistically use very high-resolution aerial imageries (National Agriculture Imagery Program, NAIP) and medium resolution Landsat data to map continental-scale TC (CONUS and Mexico) through a hierarchical deep learning approach (Convolutional Neural Network), i.e., NAIP TC generated from a NAIP model is utilized to train a Landsat model. The produced TC product (hereafter, NEX-TC) is able to capture the spatial pattern of TC distribution and its changes driven by natural disturbance and human land management. We further explore and analyze the reliability and potential uncertainty of the NEX-TC by comparing it to lidar- (lidar-TC), National Land Cover Database (NLCD-TC), and MODIS Vegetation Continuous Field (MODIS-TC). This evaluation practice reveals that TC products based on passive optical sensors tend to underestimate TC across all land cover types while Landsat-based TCs (i.e., NEX-TC & NLCD-TC) perform better than the coarser MODIS TC estimate. Our results show that the NEX-TC is generally comparable to NLCD-TC but it particularly outperforms NLCD-TC and MODIS-TC over the dense forests where lidar-TC indicates >80% TC. These results indicate that our hierarchical deep learning approach and TC product will be effective and useful for characterizing large-scale tree cover and possibly associated carbon dynamics.

Landsat↗

Estimating Emissions of Methane Consistent with Atmospheric Measurements of Methane and δC-13 of Methane

We have constructed an atmospheric inversion framework based on TM5-4DVAR to jointly assimilate measurements of methane and δC-13 of methane in order to estimate source-specific methane emissions. Here we present global emission estimates from this framework for the period 1999–2016. We assimilate a newly constructed, multi-agency database of CH4 and δC-13 measurements. We find that traditional CH4-only atmospheric inversions are unlikely to estimate emissions consistent with atmospheric δC-13 data and assimilating δC-13 data is necessary to derive emissions consistent with both measurements. Our framework attributes ca. 85% of the post-2007 growth in atmospheric methane to microbial sources, with about half of that coming from the tropics between 23.5° N and 23.5° S. This contradicts the attribution of the recent growth in the methane budget of the Global Carbon Project (GCP). We find that the GCP attribution is only consistent with our top-down estimate in the absence of δC-13 data. We find that at global and continental scales, δC-13 data can separate microbial from fossil methane emissions much better than CH4 data alone, and at smaller scales this ability is limited by the current δC-13 measurement coverage. Finally, we find that the largest uncertainty in using δC-13 data to separate different methane source types comes from our knowledge of atmospheric chemistry, specifically the distribution of tropospheric chlorine and the isotopic discrimination of the methane sink.

Methane↗

Quantum-Assisted Variational Segmentation for Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection Using Satellite Data

The quantum computing community has been searching for suitable applications to demonstrate the potential of near-term quantum devices. Quantum machine learning is a potential candidate, particularly using models that cannot be efficiently simulated with classical computers [1, 2]. This work focuses on a transition phase of quantum computers where the quantum machine learning model is still simulable classically but projected not to be simulable as the size of the model grows. Ultimately quantum computers may have advantages for high-dimensional real-world problems. Due to the limited number of qubits in current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices, the direct application of quantum computers in high dimensional data is not feasible. To remedy this problem, an encoder-decoder architecture can be utilized. The encoder model would transform the high-dimensional data into a compact representation, to a level that small quantum computers can be used today (or in the near future), and the decoder would take the quantum processed outputs back to the high-dimensional space. Addressing the two challenges of quantum machine learning, this work investigates a hybrid supervised generative model with a quantum Ising Born machine embedded as the latent distribution. The model contains four main parts (Figure 1.a.): (1) a U-NET architecture responsible for learning segmentation flow, (2) a Prior network responsible for learning an encoded latent distribution of the input data, (3) a Born machine which represents the latent distribution, and (4) a Posterior network in charge of learning the joint encoded latent distribution of inputs and target data. The initial model, proposed by [3], is optimized by (1) maximizing the overlap of the prior and posterior latent distributions, and (2) minimizing the segmentation loss. The proposed model is designed to be investigated in a simulation environment applied to the real-world application of wildfire segmentation. Specifically, the model is designed to solve the patchy wildfire segmentations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) by taking the MODIS observations and using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s (VIIRS) consistent wildfire product as the target. The model solves patchy wildfire segmentations and provides insight into the epistemic errors sourced from model variation. The model utilizes the Born machine as a QUBO solver to represent the latent space as a Bernoulli distribution. The proposed configuration allows the variational segmentation model to leverage the true quantum probabilistic nature and derive a more expressive latent configuration, increasing the model performance in describing wildfire segmentations. The quantum probabilistic information of the Born machine is directly incorporated in the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss in the prior and posterior distributions, forcing the Bernoulli latent distribution to maximize the overlap of input and joint input-target distributions. The proposed model is then trained and compared with a baseline only consisting of direct Bernoulli latent distribution with no Born machine representing the latent space. The models are evaluated based on the segmentation metrics, such as precision, recall, intersect of union, with uncertainty boundaries accounting for the stochastic nature of the model. Our findings show that even in low latent-dimensional space (due to the limit in computational power of the classical quantum simulator), we are able to effectively capture the latent representation and hence the model performs better than the baseline. The findings are a projection for scaling the model into higher dimensional latent space with the Born machine surpassing the baseline performance. Figure 1. Sub-figure (a) demonstrates the architecture for the training phase. The model consists of a Prior and Posterior network that encode inputs and joint input-target data into compact representations, respectively. The Born machine represents the latent distribution, and the U-NET branch learns the segmentation patterns of the data. The stochasticity is introduced to the U-NET through its last layer to create meaningful but stochastic segmentations. Sub-figure (b) represents the inference phase where the model takes the stochastic behavior from the prior network and injects that into the U-NET. Each attempt of inference will generate different but similar segmentations from the same distribution of the wildfire event. REFERENCES [1] Coyle, B., Mills, D., Danos, V., & Kashefi, E. (2020). The Born supremacy: quantum advantage and training of an Ising Born machine. npj Quantum Information, 6(1), 1-11. [2] Liu, J. G., & Wang, L. (2018). Differentiable learning of quantum circuit born machines. Physical Review A, 98(6), 062324. [3] Kohl, S., Romera-Paredes, B., Meyer, C., De Fauw, J., Ledsam, J. R., Maier-Hein, K., ... & Ronneberger, O. (2018). A probabilistic u-net for segmentation of ambiguous images. Advances in neural information processing systems, 31.

quantum machine learning↗

On the apparent insignificance of the randomness of flexible joints on large space truss dynamics

Deployable periodic large space structures have been shown to exhibit high dynamic sensitivity to period-breaking imperfections and uncertainties. These can be brought on by manufacturing or assembly errors, structural imperfections, as well as nonlinear and/or nonconservative joint behavior. In addition, the necessity of precise pointing and position capability can require the consideration of these usually negligible and unknown parametric uncertainties and their effect on the overall dynamic response of large space structures. This work describes the use of a new design approach for the global dynamic solution of beam-like periodic space structures possessing parametric uncertainties. Specifically, the effect of random flexible joints on the free vibrations of simply-supported periodic large space trusses is considered. The formulation is a hybrid approach in terms of an extended Timoshenko beam continuum model, Monte Carlo simulation scheme, and first-order perturbation methods. The mean and mean-square response statistics for a variety of free random vibration problems are derived for various input random joint stiffness probability distributions. The results of this effort show that, although joint flexibility has a substantial effect on the modal dynamic response of periodic large space trusses, the effect of any reasonable uncertainty or randomness associated with these joint flexibilities is insignificant.

Koch, R. M.↗

Calibration of Predictor Models Using Multiple Validation Experiments

This paper presents a framework for calibrating computational models using data from several and possibly dissimilar validation experiments. The offset between model predictions and observations, which might be caused by measurement noise, model-form uncertainty, and numerical error, drives the process by which uncertainty in the models parameters is characterized. The resulting description of uncertainty along with the computational model constitute a predictor model. Two types of predictor models are studied: Interval Predictor Models (IPMs) and Random Predictor Models (RPMs). IPMs use sets to characterize uncertainty, whereas RPMs use random vectors. The propagation of a set through a model makes the response an interval valued function of the state, whereas the propagation of a random vector yields a random process. Optimization-based strategies for calculating both types of predictor models are proposed. Whereas the formulations used to calculate IPMs target solutions leading to the interval value function of minimal spread containing all observations, those for RPMs seek to maximize the models' ability to reproduce the distribution of observations. Regarding RPMs, we choose a structure for the random vector (i.e., the assignment of probability to points in the parameter space) solely dependent on the prediction error. As such, the probabilistic description of uncertainty is not a subjective assignment of belief, nor is it expected to asymptotically converge to a fixed value, but instead it casts the model's ability to reproduce the experimental data. This framework enables evaluating the spread and distribution of the predicted response of target applications depending on the same parameters beyond the validation domain.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Comparing Spatial Distributions of Solar Prominence Mass Derived from Coronal Absorption

In the present work we extend the use of this mass-inference technique to a sample of prominences observed in at least two coronal lines. This approach, in theory, allows a direct calculation of prominence mass and helium abundance and how these properties vary spatially and temporally. Our motivation is two-fold: to obtain a He(exp 0)/H(exp 0) abundance ratio, and to determine how the relative spatial distribution of the two species varies in prominences. The first of these relies on the theoretical expectation that the amount of absorption at each EUV wavelength is well-characterized. However, in this work we show that due to a saturation of the continuum absorption in the 625 A and 368 A lines (which have much higher opacity compared to 195 A-) the uncertainties in obtaining the relative abundances are too high to give meaningful estimates. This is an important finding because of its impact on future studies in this area. The comparison of the spatial distribution of helium and hydrogen presented here augments previous observational work indicating that cross-field diffusion of neutrals is an important mechanism for mass loss. Significantly different loss timescales for neutral He and H (helium drains much more rapidly than hydrogen) can impact prominence structure, and both the present and past studies suggest this mechanism is playing a role in structure and possibly dynamics. Section 2 of this paper contains a description of the observations and Section 3 summarizes the method used to infer mass along with the criteria imposed in choosing prominences appropriate for this study. Section 3 also contains a discussion of the problems due to limitations of the available data and the implications for determining relative abundances. We present our results in Section 4, including plots of radial-like scans of prominence mass in different lines to show the spatial distribution of the different species. The last section contains a discussion summarizing the importance of the qualitative results found in this work. The Appendix provides a detailed derivation of how to obtain prominence mass and helium abundance (A 1) and includes the data for all prominences studied (A2).

Gilbert, Holly↗

How Well Will MODIS Measure Top of Atmosphere Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing?

The new generation of satellite sensors such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) will be able to detect and characterize global aerosols with an unprecedented accuracy. The question remains whether this accuracy will be sufficient to narrow the uncertainties in our estimates of aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. Satellite remote sensing detects aerosol optical thickness with the least amount of relative error when aerosol loading is high. Satellites are less effective when aerosol loading is low. We use the monthly mean results of two global aerosol transport models to simulate the spatial distribution of smoke aerosol in the Southern Hemisphere during the tropical biomass burning season. This spatial distribution allows us to determine that 87-94% of the smoke aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere occurs in grid squares with sufficient signal to noise ratio to be detectable from space. The uncertainty of quantifying the smoke aerosol forcing in the Southern Hemisphere depends on the uncertainty introduced by errors in estimating the background aerosol, errors resulting from uncertainties in surface properties and errors resulting from uncertainties in assumptions of aerosol properties. These three errors combine to give overall uncertainties of 1.5 to 2.2 Wm-2 (21-56%) in determining the Southern Hemisphere smoke aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere. The range of values depend on which estimate of MODIS retrieval uncertainty is used, either the theoretical calculation (upper bound) or the empirical estimate (lower bound). Strategies that use the satellite data to derive flux directly or use the data in conjunction with ground-based remote sensing and aerosol transport models can reduce these uncertainties.

Remer, Lorraine A.↗

Carbon Consequences of Forest Disturbance and Recovery Across the Conterminous United States

Forests of North America are thought to constitute a significant long term sink for atmospheric carbon. The United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program has developed a large data base of stock changes derived from consecutive estimates of growing stock volume in the US. These data reveal a large and relatively stable increase in forest carbon stocks over the last two decades or more. The mechanisms underlying this national increase in forest stocks may include recovery of forests from past disturbances, net increases in forest area, and growth enhancement driven by climate or fertilization by CO2 and Nitrogen. Here we estimate the forest recovery component of the observed stock changes using FIA data on the age structure of US forests and carbon stocks as a function of age. The latter are used to parameterize forest disturbance and recovery processes in a carbon cycle model. We then apply resulting disturbance/recovery dynamics to landscapes and regions based on the forest age distributions. The analysis centers on 28 representative climate settings spread about forested regions of the conterminous US. We estimate carbon fluxes for each region and propagate uncertainties in calibration data through to the predicted fluxes. The largest recovery-driven carbon sinks are found in the South central, Pacific Northwest, and Pacific Southwest regions, with spatially averaged net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of about 100 g C / square m / a driven by forest age structure. Carbon sinks from recovery in the Northeast and Northern Lake States remain moderate to large owing to the legacy of historical clearing and relatively low modern disturbance rates from harvest and fire. At the continental scale, we find a conterminous U.S. forest NEP of only 0.16 Pg C/a from age structure in 2005, or only 0.047 Pg C/a of forest stock change after accounting for fire emissions and harvest transfers. Recent estimates of NEP derived from inventory stock change, harvest, and fire data show twice the NEP sink we derive from forest age distributions. We discuss possible reasons for the discrepancies including modeling errors and the possibility of climate and/or fertilization (CO2 or N) growth enhancements.

Williams, Christopher A.↗

Environment definition, small particles, diameter less than or equal to 1 MM

The collection of particles of diameters one millimeter and less far outnumbers the larger particle distribution in orbit. These small particles cannot be tracked from ground based radar as can the larger debris, therefore, there is greater uncertainty in their properties. The population is growing from contributions due to collisions of larger debris, explosions, and aluminum oxide particles from solid rocket motors. The solid rocket motor contribution is the prominent growth parameter, and the input from Space Shuttle deployed upper stages will range between 50,000 and 100,000 pounds per year. The environment is important because of the different design problems that will be posed to the engineer and scientist. The emphasis shifts from catastrophe deign, probability versus exposure time, and tracking-avoidance, to a continuous degradation problem.

Source record↗

The mass of the Coma cluster

Mass estimate uncertainties for the Coma cluster in position and velocity data for the galaxies are examined under the assumption that mass and galaxy distribution are parallel, on the one hand, and on the other, that the form of the mass distribution is not constrained. While low mass models have all the mass in the cluster core, and require the galaxies to be on or near circular orbits, high mass models are noted to have weakly concentrated mass distributions and primarily radial orbits. It is concluded that galaxy data alone are unlikely to clearly distinguish between these possibilities.

The, Lih Sin↗

Building intelligent systems - Artificial intelligence research at NASA Ames Research Center

The basic components that make up the goal of building autonomous intelligent systems are discussed, and ongoing work at the NASA Ames Research Center is described. It is noted that a clear progression of systems can be seen through research settings (both within and external to NASA) to Space Station testbeds to systems which actually fly on the Space Station. The starting point for the discussion is a 'truly' autonomous Space Station intelligent system, responsible for a major portion of Space Station control. Attention is given to research in fiscal 1987, including reasoning under uncertainty, machine learning, causal modeling and simulation, knowledge from design through operations, advanced planning work, validation methodologies, and hierarchical control of and distributed cooperation among multiple knowledge-based systems.

Friedland, Peter↗

The profile algorithm for microwave delay estimation from water vapor radiometer data

A new algorithm has been developed for the estimation of tropospheric microwave path delays from water vapor radiometer (WVR) data, which does not require site and weather dependent empirical parameters to produce accuracy better than 0.3 cm of delay. Instead of taking the conventional linear approach, the new algorithm first uses the observables with an emission model to determine an approximate form of the vertical water vapor distribution, which is then explicitly integrated to estimate wet path delays in a second step. The intrinsic accuracy of this algorithm, excluding uncertainties caused by the radiometers and the emission model, has been examined for two channel WVR data using path delays and corresponding simulated observables computed from archived radiosonde data. It is found that annual rms errors for a wide range of sites average 0.18 cm in the absence of clouds, 0.22 cm in cloudy weather, and 0.19 cm overall. In clear weather, the new algorithm's accuracy is comparable to the best that can be obtained from conventional linear algorithms, while in cloudy weather it offers a 35 percent improvement.

Robinson, Steven E.↗

Building intelligent systems: Artificial intelligence research at NASA Ames Research Center

The basic components that make up the goal of building autonomous intelligent systems are discussed, and ongoing work at the NASA Ames Research Center is described. It is noted that a clear progression of systems can be seen through research settings (both within and external to NASA) to Space Station testbeds to systems which actually fly on the Space Station. The starting point for the discussion is a truly autonomous Space Station intelligent system, responsible for a major portion of Space Station control. Attention is given to research in fiscal 1987, including reasoning under uncertainty, machine learning, causal modeling and simulation, knowledge from design through operations, advanced planning work, validation methodologies, and hierarchical control of and distributed cooperation among multiple knowledge-based systems.

Friedland, P.↗

Problems in determining the surface density of the Galactic disk

A new method is presented for determining the local surface density of the Galactic disk from distance and velocity measurements of stars toward the Galactic poles. The procedure is fully three-dimensional, approximating the Galactic potential by a potential of Staeckel form and using the analytic third integral to treat the tilt and the change of shape of the velocity ellipsoid consistently. Applying the procedure to artificial data superficially resembling the K dwarf sample of Kuijken and Gilmore (1988, 1989), it is shown that the current best estimates of local disk surface density are uncertain by at least 30 percent. Of this, about 25 percent is due to the size of the velocity sample, about 15 percent comes from uncertainties in the rotation curve and the solar galactocentric distance, and about 10 percent from ignorance of the shape of the velocity distribution above z = 1 kpc, the errors adding in quadrature. Increasing the sample size by a factor of 3 will reduce the error to 20 percent. To achieve 10 percent accuracy, observations will be needed along other lines of sight to constrain the shape of the velocity ellipsoid.

Statler, Thomas S.↗

ROSAT PSPC observations of the early-type galaxies NGC 507 and NGC 499: Central cooling and mass determination

We present the results of a deep observation of NGC 507 and NGC 499 with the ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC). The X-ray emission of NGC 507 is extended at least out to 1000 sec (458 kpc at a distance of 94.5 Mpc). The radial profile of X-ray surface brightness goes as Sigma(sub x) is approximately r(exp -1.8) outside the core region. The radial profile is a function of energy such that the softer X-rays have a smaller core radius and a flatter slope. Spectral analysis reveals that the emission temperature, with an average of 1 keV, peaks at an intermediate radius of 2-3 min and falls toward the center (possibly decreases outward as well). The absorption column density is consistent with the Galactic line-of-sight value. The X-ray emission of NGC 499 is extended to 300 sec and suggests a similarly cooler core. The cooler cores of NGC 507 and NGC 499 are strong evidence of the presence of cooling flows in these galaxies. Assuming hydrostatic equilibrium outside the cooling radius, the estimated mass-to-light ratio of NGC 507 is 97 +/- 16 within 458 kpc, indicative of the presence of a heavy halo. Similarly, the mass-to-light ratio of NGC 499 is 89 +/- 14 within 137 kpc. Near the edge of the X-ray-emitting region of NGC 507 we detect 19 soft, unresolved sources. These sources do not have optical counterparts and are significantly in excess of the expected number of background serendipitous sources. We speculate that they may represent cooling clumps in the halo of NGC 507. If there are many undetected cooling clumps distributed at large radii, then the radial profile of the X-ray surface brightness does not directly reflect the potential, adding uncertainty to the measurement of the binding mass; the gas mass could also be overestimated.

Kim, Dong-Woo↗

Boreal Winter Predictions with the GEOS-2 GCM: The Role of Boundary Forcing and Initial Conditions

Ensembles of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulations (1980-94) are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of the initial conditions. Both the forecasts and simulations are carried out with version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-2) GCM forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). While much of the focus is on the seasonal time scale (January- March) and the Pacific North American (PNA) region, we also present results for other regions, shorter time scales, and other known modes of variability in the northern hemisphere extratropics. Forecasts of indices of some of the key large-scale modes of variability show that there is considerable variability in skill between different regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The eastern North Atlantic region has the poorest long lead forecast skill showing no skill beyond about 10 days. Skillful seasonal forecasts are primarily confined to the wave-like ENSO response emanating from the tropical Pacific. In the Northern Hemisphere, this is associated with the well-known Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern. Memory of the initial conditions is the major factor leading to skillful extratropical forecasts of lead time less than one month, while SST forcing is the only factor at the seasonal time scale. SST forcing contributes to skillful forecasts at sub- seasonal time scales only over the PNA region. The GEOS-2 GCM produces average (1980-94) signal to noise ratios which are less than one everywhere in the extratropics, except for the subtropical Pacific where they approach 1.5. When confined to the ENSO years, the maximum signal to noise ratios occur in the PNA region where they exceed three. An assessment of the sampling distribution of the forecasts suggests the model's ENSO response is very likely too weak. These results show some sensitivity to the uncertainties in the estimates of the SST forcing fields. In the North Pacific region, the sensitivity to SST forcing manifests itself primarily as changes in the variability of the PNA response, underscoring the need for an ensemble approach to the seasonal prediction problem.

Chang, Yehui↗