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Pterodactyl: Thermal Protection System Design Methodology for a Flap Control System

As interest in non-traditional entry vehicles continues to grow, the need for a Thermal Protection System (TPS) analysis approach that can account for entry solutions with changing geometry and complicated flow dynamics becomes invaluable. The NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) Pterodactyl project aims to accomplish this through examination of a flap controlled Adaptable, Deployable Entry Placement Technology (ADEPT)-style Deployable Entry Vehicle (DEV). This paper details an improved methodology for modeling the aerothermodynamic environment and initial TPS design for a flap control system integrated with a symmetric DEV. Improvements include i) the addition of an anchoring process that uses an increased fidelity aerodynamic solution to anchor the aerothermal environment predictions and ii) increased surface resolution, for the 1D heat transfer analysis, to isolate the hottest area on the flap that will require the thickest TPS. It was found that the anchoring process provided an improved aerothermal environment prediction. Additionally, this analysis demonstrated that there is a need for increased surface resolution in the 1D thermal analysis since the predicted location of the hottest point was significantly different than the location identified using very coarse surface resolution.

Zane B Hays↗

A Vehicle Management End-to-End Testing and Analysis Platform for Validation of Mission and Fault Management Algorithms to Reduce Risk for NASA's Space Launch System

The development of the Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle requires cross discipline teams with extensive knowledge of launch vehicle subsystems, information theory, and autonomous algorithms dealing with all operations from pre-launch through on orbit operations. The characteristics of these systems must be matched with the autonomous algorithm monitoring and mitigation capabilities for accurate control and response to abnormal conditions throughout all vehicle mission flight phases, including precipitating safing actions and crew aborts. This presents a large complex systems engineering challenge being addressed in part by focusing on the specific subsystems handling of off-nominal mission and fault tolerance. Using traditional model based system and software engineering design principles from the Unified Modeling Language (UML), the Mission and Fault Management (M&FM) algorithms are crafted and vetted in specialized Integrated Development Teams composed of multiple development disciplines. NASA also has formed an M&FM team for addressing fault management early in the development lifecycle. This team has developed a dedicated Vehicle Management End-to-End Testbed (VMET) that integrates specific M&FM algorithms, specialized nominal and off-nominal test cases, and vendor-supplied physics-based launch vehicle subsystem models. The flexibility of VMET enables thorough testing of the M&FM algorithms by providing configurable suites of both nominal and off-nominal test cases to validate the algorithms utilizing actual subsystem models. The intent is to validate the algorithms and substantiate them with performance baselines for each of the vehicle subsystems in an independent platform exterior to flight software test processes. In any software development process there is inherent risk in the interpretation and implementation of concepts into software through requirements and test processes. Risk reduction is addressed by working with other organizations such as S&MA, Structures and Environments, GNC, Orion, the Crew Office, Flight Operations, and Ground Operations by assessing performance of the M&FM algorithms in terms of their ability to reduce Loss of Mission and Loss of Crew probabilities. In addition, through state machine and diagnostic modeling, analysis efforts investigate a broader suite of failure effects and detection and responses that can be tested in VMET and confirm that responses do not create additional risks or cause undesired states through interactive dynamic effects with other algorithms and systems. VMET further contributes to risk reduction by prototyping and exercising the M&FM algorithms early in their implementation and without any inherent hindrances such as meeting FSW processor scheduling constraints due to their target platform - ARINC 653 partitioned OS, resource limitations, and other factors related to integration with other subsystems not directly involved with M&FM. The plan for VMET encompasses testing the original M&FM algorithms coded in the same C++ language and state machine architectural concepts as that used by Flight Software. This enables the development of performance standards and test cases to characterize the M&FM algorithms and sets a benchmark from which to measure the effectiveness of M&FM algorithms performance in the FSW development and test processes. This paper is outlined in a systematic fashion analogous to a lifecycle process flow for engineering development of algorithms into software and testing. Section I describes the NASA SLS M&FM context, presenting the current infrastructure, leading principles, methods, and participants. Section II defines the testing philosophy of the M&FM algorithms as related to VMET followed by section III, which presents the modeling methods of the algorithms to be tested and validated in VMET. Its details are then further presented in section IV followed by Section V presenting integration, test status, and state analysis. Finally, section VI addresses the summary and forward directions followed by the appendices presenting relevant information on terminology and documentation.

Trevino, Luis↗

DSN Beowulf Cluster-Based VLBI Correlator

The NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) requires a broadband VLBI (very long baseline interferometry) correlator to process data routinely taken as part of the VLBI source Catalogue Maintenance and Enhancement task (CAT M&E) and the Time and Earth Motion Precision Observations task (TEMPO). The data provided by these measurements are a crucial ingredient in the formation of precision deep-space navigation models. In addition, a VLBI correlator is needed to provide support for other VLBI related activities for both internal and external customers. The JPL VLBI Correlator (JVC) was designed, developed, and delivered to the DSN as a successor to the legacy Block II Correlator. The JVC is a full-capability VLBI correlator that uses software processes running on multiple computers to cross-correlate two-antenna broadband noise data. Components of this new system (see Figure 1) consist of Linux PCs integrated into a Beowulf Cluster, an existing Mark5 data storage system, a RAID array, an existing software correlator package (SoftC) originally developed for Delta DOR Navigation processing, and various custom- developed software processes and scripts. Parallel processing on the JVC is achieved by assigning slave nodes of the Beowulf cluster to process separate scans in parallel until all scans have been processed. Due to the single stream sequential playback of the Mark5 data, some ramp-up time is required before all nodes can have access to required scan data. Core functions of each processing step are accomplished using optimized C programs. The coordination and execution of these programs across the cluster is accomplished using Pearl scripts, PostgreSQL commands, and a handful of miscellaneous system utilities. Mark5 data modules are loaded on Mark5 Data systems playback units, one per station. Data processing is started when the operator scans the Mark5 systems and runs a script that reads various configuration files and then creates an experiment-dependent status database used to delegate parallel tasks between nodes and storage areas (see Figure 2). This script forks into three processes: extract, translate, and correlate. Each of these processes iterates on available scan data and updates the status database as the work for each scan is completed. The extract process coordinates and monitors the transfer of data from each of the Mark5s to the Beowulf RAID storage systems. The translate process monitors and executes the data conversion processes on available scan files, and writes the translated files to the slave nodes. The correlate process monitors the execution of SoftC correlation processes on the slave nodes for scans that have completed translation. A comparison of the JVC and the legacy Block II correlator outputs reveals they are well within a formal error, and that the data are comparable with respect to their use in flight navigation. The processing speed of the JVC is improved over the Block II correlator by a factor of 4, largely due to the elimination of the reel-to-reel tape drives used in the Block II correlator.

Rogstad, Stephen P.↗

Materials and Processes for New Propulsion Systems with Reduced Environmental Impact

Aeronautics research at NASA Glenn Research Center includes development, characterization and modeling of high temperature, lightweight materials and fabrication processes for aircraft propulsion systems with increased efficiency and reduced emissions, fuel burn and noise. Current propulsion materials research includes Ceramic Matrix Composites and Environmental Barrier Coatings, Polymer Matrix Composites and Additive Manufacturing processes. This presentation will summarize recent progress and plans in these areas. Ceramic Matrix Composites for Turbine Components: As part of NASA's Aeronautics research, Glenn Research Center has developed Ceramic Matrix Composites for 2700 degrees Fahrenheit turbine engine applications in the next generation of ultra-efficient aircraft. In this presentation, the development of advanced fiber and matrix constituents that enabled this advancement will be reviewed, and characterization of the resulting improvements in mechanical properties and durability will be summarized. Progress toward the development and validation of models predicting the effects of the engine environment on durability of Ceramic Matrix Composites and Environmental Barrier Coatings will be summarized. Progress and plans for collaborative research with industry and other government agencies will be reviewed. Polymer Matrix Composites for Powertrain and Impact Protection: A lightweight, hybrid polymer matrix composite/steel gear concept for rotorcraft power transmission applications was evaluated at realistic speed, torque, and power conditions. Dynamic testing was performed at 5000 horsepower and 5400 revolutions per minute with no performance degradation. Test results demonstrated the potential of hybrid composite / metal gears to reduce gear weight by approximately 15 percent, enabling the implementation of multi-speed drive systems, which would otherwise have a weight penalty, for increased speed and efficiency. Results of post-test inspection and endurance tests will be presented. Separately, ballistic impact tests demonstrated improved damage tolerance in polymer matrix composites by incorporating lightweight, thermoplastic veil materials between selected composite plies during the composite fabrication process. Results of impact tests and post-test inspection will be presented. Additive Manufacturing for Electric Propulsion: Additive Manufacturing processes offer the potential to fabricate new, high power density electric motor designs with complex geometries, multi-material components and optimally designed components that would not be feasible with traditional manufacturing processes. High performance stator components using advanced 3-phase conductive coils were fabricated using direct printing with optimized silver pastes. Additional additive manufacturing methods are being used to fabricate rotors and motor housing components. Systems studies show that the higher performance and lower weight motors offer improved energy efficiency and reduced emissions. Improvements to motor performance resulting from optimized materials and component designs will be presented.

Additive Manufacturing↗

Ring Current Dynamic in the Presence of EMIC Waves

The effect of EMIC waves, generated by a positive ion temperature anisotropy on Earth s RC ions is one of the best known examples of wave-particle interaction in the magnetosphere and the most controversial mechanism of RC losses. Under certain conditions, relativistic electrons with energy 21 MeV can be removed from the outer RB by EMIC wave scattering during a magnetic storm much faster than by any other loss mechanisms. That is why the calculation of EMIC waves is a very critical part of the NASA LWS program. The new RC model that we have developed and present for the first time has several new features that we have combine together in a one single model: (a) several lower frequency cold plasma wave modes are taken into account; (b) wave tracing of these wave has been incorporated in the energy EMIC wave equation; (c) no assumptions regarding wave shape spectra have been made; (d) no assumptions regarding the shape of particle distribution have been made to calculate the growth rate; (e) pitch- angle, energy, and mix diffusions are taken into account together for the first time; (f) the exact loss-cone RC analytical solution has been found and coupled with bounce-averaged numerical solution of kinetic equation; (g) LHW are included as an additional factor that contributes to saturation process of EMIC waves; and (h) the hot ions were included in the real part of dielectric permittivity tensor. We compare our theoretical results with the different EMIC waves models as well as RC experimental data.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

Convective effects in float-zone and Czochralski melts

The hydrodynamics of crystal-growth melts is a relatively new research area. Numerical modeling of these processes is necessary. The work discussed herein is in two parts: numerical simulations of the flow in a Czochralski melt, and also of that in a float zone. In addition, for the float-zone case, energy stability theory will be used to determine stability bounds for the onset of oscillatory thermo-capillary flow. Convective effects in crystal-growth melts arise from a variety of mechanisms. Temperature gradients both in the direction of gravity and normal to it give rise to convection due to buoyancy effects. Rotation of the crucible and/or crystal causes a forced convection which may augment or oppose the buoyancy-driven flow. Finally, thermo-capillary forces (due to the variation of surface tension with temperature) drive surface motions which in turn generate convection in the bulk fluid. All of these mechanisms are present in either Czochralski or float-zone growth. The objective of the Czochralski modeling is to develop an accurate numerical simulation of the flow in a Czochralski silicon melt and to investigate the effects of various parameters on the flow properties. Like some earlier investigations, the intent is to simulate the effects of buoyancy, forced and thermo-capillary convection, including unsteady effects. Unlike earlier work, the aim is to include the effects of a variable free surface and freezing interface and, possibly incorporate nonaxisymmetric effects.

Neitzel, G. P.↗

Computer Modeling of Electrostatic Aggregation of Granular Materials in Planetary and Astrophysical Settings

Electrostatic forces strongly influence the behavior of granular materials in both dispersed (cloud) systems and semi-packed systems. These forces can cause aggregation or dispersion of particles and are important in a variety of astrophysical and planetary settings. There are also many industrial and commercial settings where granular matter and electrostatics become partners for both good and bad. This partnership is important for human exploration on Mars where dust adheres to suits, machines, and habitats. Long-range Coulombic (electrostatic) forces, as opposed to contact-induced dipoles and van der Waals attractions, are generally regarded as resulting from net charge. We have proposed that in addition to net charge interactions, randomly distributed charge carriers on grains will result in a dipole moment regardless of any net charge. If grains are unconfined, or fluidized, they will rotate so that the dipole always induces attraction between grains. Aggregates are readily formed, and Coulombic polarity resulting from the dipole produces end-to-end stacking of grains to form filamentary aggregates. This has been demonstrated in USML experiments on Space Shuttle where microgravity facilitated the unmasking of static forces. It has also been demonstrated in a computer model using grains with charge carriers of both sign. Model results very closely resembled micro-g results with actual sand grains. Further computer modeling of the aggregation process has been conducted to improve our understanding of the aggregation process, and to provide a predictive tool for microgravity experiments slated for Space Station. These experiments will attempt to prove the dipole concept as outlined above. We have considerably enhanced the original computer model: refinements to the algorithm have improved the fidelity of grain behavior during grain contact, special attention has been paid to simulation time steps to enable establishment of a meaningful, quantitative time axis, and calibration of rounding accuracies have been conducted to test cumulative numerical influences in the model. The model has been run for larger grain populations, variable initial cloud densities, and we have introduced random net charging to individual grains, as well as a net charge to the cloud as a whole. The model uses 3 positive and 3 negative charges randomly distributed on each grain, with up to 160 grains contained within various size "boxes" that define the initial number densities in the clouds. Each charge represents localized charged region on a grain, but does not necessarily imply single quantized charge carriers. The Coulomb equations are then allowed to interact for each monopole: dipoles and any higher order charge coupling is a natural product of these "free" interactions over which the modeler exerts no influence. The charges are placed on surfaces of grains at random locations. A series of runs was conducted for neutral grains that had a perfect balance of negative and positive char carriers. Runs were also conducted with grains having additional fractional charges ranging between 0 and 1. By adding fractional charges of one sign, the model created grain populations in which all grains had excess charges the same sign, giving the cloud an overall net charge. This simulates clouds subjected to ionizing radiation (e. protoplanetary debris disk around a protosun), or any other process of charge biasing in a grain population (e.g., volcanic plumes). In another run series, random fractional charges of either sign were added to the grains so th some grains had a slight net positive charge while others had a slight net negative charge. This simulates triboelectrically-charged grain populations in which acquisition of an electron by one surface is at the expense creating a hole elsewhere. This dual sign charging was applied in two ways: in one case the cloud remained neutral by ensuring that all grain excess charges added to zero; in the other case, the cloud was permitted slight net char by not imposing a charge-balance condition. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J.↗

Force Balance and Substorm Effects in the Magnetotail

A model of the quiet time middle magnetotail is developed using a consistent orbit tracing technique. The momentum equation is used to calculate geocentric solar magnetospheric components of the particle and electromagnetic forces throughout the current sheet. Ions generate the dominant x and z force components. Electron and ion forces almost cancel in the y direction because the two species drift earthward at comparable speeds. The force viewpoint is applied to a study of some substorm processes. Generation of the rapid flows seen during substorm injection and bursty bulk flow events implies substantial force imbalances. The formation of a substorm diversion loop is one cause of changes in the magnetic field and therefore in the electromagnetic force. It is found that larger forces are produced when the cross-tail current is diverted to the ionosphere than would be produced if the entire tail current system simply decreased. Plasma is accelerated while the forces are unbalanced resulting in field lines within a diversion loop becoming more dipolar. Field lines become more stretched and the plasma sheet becomes thinner outside a diversion loop. Mechanisms that require thin current sheets to produce current disruption then can create additional diversion loops in the newly thinned regions. This process may be important during multiple expansion substorms and in differentiating pseudoexpansions from full substorms. It is found that the tail field model used here can be generated by a variety of particle distribution functions. However, for a given energy distribution the mixture of particle mirror or reflection points is constrained by the consistency requirement. The study of uniqueness also leads to the development of a technique to select guiding center electrons that will produce charge neutrality all along a flux tube containing nonguiding center ions without the imposition of a parallel electric field.

Kaufmann, Richard L.↗

Auroral particles

The problems concerning the aurora posed prior to the war are now either solved in principle or were restated in a more fundamental form. The pre-war hypothesis concerning the nature of the auroral particles and their energies was fully confirmed, with the exception that helium and oxygen ions were identified as participating in the auroral particle precipitation in addition to the protons. The nature of the near-Earth energization processes affecting auroral particles was clarified. Charged particle trajectories in various electric field geometries were modeled. The physical problems have now moved from determining the nature and geometry of the electric fields, which accelerate charged particles near the Earth, to accounting for the existence of these electric fields as a natural consequence of the solar wind's interaction with Earth. Ultimately the reward in continuing the work in auroral and magnetospheric particle dynamics will be a deeper understanding of the subtleties of classical electricity and magnetism as applied to situations not blessed with well-defined and invariant geometries.

Evans, David S.↗

Surface reconstruction from scattered data through pruning of unstructured grids

This paper describes an algorithm for reconstructing a surface from a randomly digitized object. Scan data (treated as a cloud of points) is first tesselated out to its convex hull using Delaunay triangulation. The line-of-sight between each surface point and the scanning device is traversed, and any tetrahedra which are pierced by it are removed. The remaining tetrahedra form an approximate solid model of the scanned object. Due to the inherently limited resolution of any scan, this algorithm requires two additional procedures to produce a smooth, polyhedral surface: one process removes long, narrow tetrahedra which span indentations in the surface between digitized points; the other smooths sharp edges. The results for a moderately resolved sample body and a highly resolved aircraft are displayed.

Maksymiuk, C. M.↗

Intersymbol Interference Investigations Using a 3D Time-Dependent Traveling Wave Tube Model

For the first time, a physics based computational model has been used to provide a direct description of the effects of the TWT (Traveling Wave Tube) on modulated digital signals. The TWT model comprehensively takes into account the effects of frequency dependent AM/AM and AM/PM conversion; gain and phase ripple; drive-induced oscillations; harmonic generation; intermodulation products; and backward waves. Thus, signal integrity can be investigated in the presence of these sources of potential distortion as a function of the physical geometry of the high power amplifier and the operational digital signal. This method promises superior predictive fidelity compared to methods using TWT models based on swept amplitude and/or swept frequency data. The fully three-dimensional (3D), time-dependent, TWT interaction model using the electromagnetic code MAFIA is presented. This model is used to investigate assumptions made in TWT black box models used in communication system level simulations. In addition, digital signal performance, including intersymbol interference (ISI), is compared using direct data input into the MAFIA model and using the system level analysis tool, SPW (Signal Processing Worksystem).

Kory, Carol L.↗

Nucleosynthesis Predictions for Intermediate-Mass AGB Stars: Comparison to Observations of Type I Planetary Nebulae

Type I planetary nebulae (PNe) have high He/H and N/O ratios and are thought to be descendants of stars with initial masses of approx. 3-8 Stellar Mass. These characteristics indicate that the progenitor stars experienced proton-capture nucleosynthesis at the base of the convective envelope, in addition to the slow neutron capture process operating in the He-shell (the s-process). We compare the predicted abundances of elements up to Sr from models of intermediate-mass asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars to measured abundances in Type I PNe. In particular, we compare predictions and observations for the light trans-iron elements Se and Kr, in order to constrain convective mixing and the s-process in these stars. A partial mixing zone is included in selected models to explore the effect of a C-13 pocket on the s-process yields. The solar-metallicity models produce enrichments of [(Se, Kr)/Fe] less than or approx. 0.6, consistent with Galactic Type I PNe where the observed enhancements are typically less than or approx. 0.3 dex, while lower metallicity models predict larger enrichments of C, N, Se, and Kr. O destruction occurs in the most massive models but it is not efficient enough to account for the greater than or approx. 0.3 dex O depletions observed in some Type I PNe. It is not possible to reach firm conclusions regarding the neutron source operating in massive AGB stars from Se and Kr abundances in Type I PNe; abundances for more s-process elements may help to distinguish between the two neutron sources. We predict that only the most massive (M grester than or approx.5 Stellar Mass) models would evolve into Type I PNe, indicating that extra-mixing processes are active in lower-mass stars (3-4 Stellar Mass), if these stars are to evolve into Type I PNe.

Karakas, Amanda I.↗

How Should Life Support Be Modeled and Simulated?

Why do most space life support research groups build and investigate large models for systems simulation? The need for them seems accepted, but are we asking the right questions and solving the real problems? The modeling results leave many questions unanswered. How then should space life support be modeled and simulated? Life support system research and development uses modeling and simulation to study dynamic behavior as part of systems engineering and analysis. It is used to size material flows and buffers and plan contingent operations. A DoD sponsored study used the systems engineering approach to define a set of best practices for modeling and simulation. These best practices describe a systems engineering process of developing and validating requirements, defining and analyzing the model concept, and designing and testing the model. Other general principles for modeling and simulation are presented. Some specific additional advice includes performing a static analysis before developing a dynamic simulation, applying the mass and energy conservation laws, modeling on the appropriate system level, using simplified subsystem representations, designing the model to solve a specific problem, and testing the model on several different problems. Modeling and simulation is necessary in life support design but many problems are outside its scope.

Jones, Harry W.↗

Quantum-Compatible Variational Segmentation for Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection Using Satellite Data

Wildfire occurrences have been increasing for the past decade, leaving devastating traces across the world. In the recent efforts, remote sensing and airborne missions have been utilized to better understand and manage wildfires. This has resulted in an exponential increase in volume of remote sensing data, which has pushed the need for intelligent automation of data extraction for wildfire studies. Machine learning offers accurate automation in detecting such natural anomalies and enable decision-makers to take actions in a timely manner. Recent advances in machine learning algorithms, namely probabilistic generative methods, allow researchers and decisionmakers to step beyond detection and study “what-if” scenarios for wildfire occurrences. Additionally, they offer better imitations to the stochastic behavior of nature, and wildfire events. However, optimizing the performance of these probabilistic generative models is a computationally expensive process, specially using digital computers. On the other hand, quantum computers have recently shown a promise to reduce computationally costly training of such models and provide performance improvements. There is a body of research investigating the potential for improved machine learning methods in which key operations are performed on a quantum computer. In this study, we propose a probabilistic image-toimage segmentation approach combining a very well-known segmentation method, U-NET, with a Conditional Variational Auto-Encoder (CVAE) to not only detect wildfires but also describe the stochasticity of the phenomenon and be capable of running “what-if” scenarios. Our proposed model is compatible with training on quantum computers, which results in a quantum-assisted image-to-image segmentation approach and can be used to benchmark the potential benefit of quantum computing over the classical one.

quantum↗

Developing Compelling and Science-Focused Mission Concepts for NASA Competed Mission Proposals

Since the mid 1990s, NASA has used a competitive selection process to initiate new mission concepts. These competed missions are motivated by high-value science with low implementation and cost risks. Selectable mission concepts require highly focused science approaches—delivering high quality science “on a budget.” Prospective Principal Investigators (PIs) need to convince NASA that the science they are proposing is both compelling and has high programmatic value. Unfortunately, many of these PIs are not trained in the communication skills needed for “selling” a mission concept to stakeholders. This requires a proposal that presents an investigation in an accessible, relatable, authentic, and believable way. It is the onus of the proposing PI to convince NASA of the value of their particular science concept in a competitive environment, addressing any pre-conceived notions reviewers might have about the concept’s value, complexities, urgency, and other impediments to understanding.The importance of this can be seen in the NASA-sponsored PI Launchpad (Nov 2019 & Jun 2021)1 which was designed to help early career scientists understand the skills, methods, processes, and resources needed to develop compelling science mission concepts; as well as in JPL’s update to their concept maturity model (Jan 2020) which included the addition of Story and Strategy dimensions. This paper provides guidance to assist prospective PIs in developing compelling, science-focused mission concepts. It will provide direction for communicating concepts more clearly to make science objectives more relatable to both reviewers and a broader audience, improving the probability of selection.

Ziemer, John↗

NASA-GRC High Voltage Materials Development and Test Capabilities Portfolio

This presentation provides the background information on NASA-GRC high voltage (HV) materials team research efforts towards electrified propulsion systems since 2016 . Additionally, it covers polymer and ceramic filler materials development for HV electrical insulation composites, copper/ carbon nanotube hybrid conductors, modeling efforts, HV test capabilities, and future material processing capabilities.

Boron Nitride↗

Parametric Cost Modeling of Space Missions Using the Develop New Projects (DMP) Implementation Process

This paper presents an overview of a parametric cost model that has been built at JPL to estimate costs of future, deep space, robotic science missions. Due to the recent dramatic changes in JPL business practices brought about by an internal reengineering effort known as develop new products (DNP), high-level historic cost data is no longer considered analogous to future missions. Therefore, the historic data is of little value in forecasting costs for projects developed using the DNP process. This has lead to the development of an approach for obtaining expert opinion and also for combining actual data with expert opinion to provide a cost database for future missions. In addition, the DNP cost model has a maximum of objective cost drivers which reduces the likelihood of model input error. Version 2 is now under development which expands the model capabilities, links it more tightly with key design technical parameters, and is grounded in more rigorous statistical techniques. The challenges faced in building this model will be discussed, as well as it's background, development approach, status, validation, and future plans.

Rosenberg, Leigh↗

Continuum theories for fluid-particle flows: Some aspects of lift forces and turbulence

A general framework is outlined for the modeling of fluid particle flows. The momentum exchange between the constituents embodies both lift and drag forces, constitutive equations for which can be made explicit with reference to known single particle analysis. Relevant results for lift are reviewed, and invariant representations are posed. The fluid and particle velocities and the particle volume fraction are then decomposed into mean and fluctuating parts to characterize turbulent motions, and the equations of motion are averaged. In addition to the Reynolds stresses, further correlations between concentration and velocity fluctuations appear. These can be identified with turbulent transport processes such as eddy diffusion of the particles. When the drag force is dominant, the classical convection dispersion model for turbulent transport of particles is recovered. When other interaction forces enter, particle segregation effects can arise. This is illustrated qualitatively by consideration of turbulent channel flow with lift effects included.

Mctigue, David F.↗